Can you not order and pick up at the local distribution centre. Know pre lockdown that if no one is at home they return to their yard and you can pick up packages the following day. Thee are a few whisky outlets that courier, so I have been informed.
Seems to me that if you're on your boat alone, you could share a bubble with someone onshore? Swap 'em a fresh fish in exchange for each delivery? (that might just be my BMI talking – I sink like a brick so that the prospect of good food is all that will conceivably get me onto water these days lol)
Haven't looked it up, but if it's within a combined bubble according to the rules, it's not the same as exchanging stuff willy nilly with the neighbours.
To help in your planning Johnr when you are able to purchase – I found this guy worth watching and he doesn’t go high end, whiskies that are “relatively” affordable Ralfy.com.
The range of human actions when it comes to mask wearing and vaccination shows a population wide variation of behaviour in response to perceived threat. I'm guessing persistence of this trait confers a reproductive advantage.
Serious question (Has the government ditched elimination?)
Last 3 days – Cases: 23, 20, 33
Today – Level 3 in Auckland in 8 days 'likely', 'Get vaccinated this week' (Not as safe after this week because re-opening even if cases are 20+ a day?)
I didn't see any suggestion that the level would necessarily reduce in a week or so. Just that maybe there was a suggestion lockdown was working and the level would reduce when it was safe to do so.
We are in L4 for at least a week, and then the Govt will review. I am sure they are acutely aware of the costs of an extended lockdown. But the costs of a Delta outbreak, when only 50% of the population is vaccinated, are horrendous. The health system is already falling apart. A Delta outbreak will demolish it, and wreck the economy anyway
To make it simple, that still means at least a week.
Things are tracking well at the moment, so if that continues then L3 looks likely. But if the tail is longer than than expected, or a new cluster seems to pop up, it could be another few weeks.
There's no knowing, so no firm timetable. It just is what it is. Mate of mine is Buddhist – he seems to have the right vibe for this sort of shit.
Yep that's how I understood it too. Level 4 for another week, then if all going well, and only if numbers stay low, then level 3 after that. I didn't pick up on any indication of how long L3 would be, but imagine it would likely be two weeks.
My understanding of "in principle" is if things stay the same (i.e. 20+ cases a day, a handful of "concerning cases) Auckland will still move down to level 3 next Wednesday.
Steady at 20 cases a day for a week is bad. It means there's likely an unknown problem resulting in a plateau, and we aren't eliminating the bug.
What we should be seeing is a longish tail where knocking off the last few cases a day is as difficult as getting from 80 a day down to 20, but there's still progress on rolling average.
My understanding of "in principle" is if things stay the same (i.e. 20+ cases a day, a handful of "concerning" cases) Auckland will still move down to level 3 next Wednesday.
The crucial bit is the number of community cases where how they got the infection is unknown. Most of the cases are from known connections – typically family. Generally those cases are expected and people are already in isolation or quarantine when they test positive.
I think that the dangerous unlinked cases is currently 17 and falling. That is because they are indicative of undetected probably asymptomatic infection sources or clusters in community that can trigger new outbreaks
That said, we have had two unlinked cases over the weekend. That also said, it often takes a few days to to do things like getting the genomic analysis to eliminate where they didn’t get it from and to do a through look at possible points of contact.
The purpose of the lockdown is to isolate sources of infection – to eventually drop the numbers by providing no way for people to get infected. It isn’t there to stop people who have already been isolated because they could have been infected from not testing positive. We don’t have magic medical preventatives to stop that happening.
That is why when analysts are looking at reported cases, they are usually looking at measures like 7 days rolling averages to discern trends. It isolates random vagaries like how many people decided to get tested because the weather was better today.
Yes, although we are seeing some close contacts spreading the virus before they are isolating. They said "only a handful" of the 17 are concerning. Yesterday there were 34 unlinked cases and that dropped by half today which was sudden.
I agree, although since most of the people testing positive are people expected test positive, external factors affecting testing numbers would not have as much of an effect?
Based on Professor Gibson's research, up to 45,350 deaths may be acceptable, although he notes that that is an "unduly harsh assessment". That's the number – equivalent to two million fewer expected life years – which he has calculated based on our elimination strategy. His conclusion?
New Zealand’s safety-at-all-costs response to Covid-19 is likely to cause greater reductions in life expectancy than would eventuate with a more balanced response.
I wouldn't focus on David Seymour as he isn't in Government. If you're concerned about the loss of life, I'd focus on the current strategy.
Overall mortality due to country-specific strategic responses to the on-going COVID-19 pandemic will no doubt continue to be a matter of some debate within and between groups of public health professionals, economists and academics.
Reduced mortality in New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic As the costs and benefits of strict public health measures are debated, New Zealand's low all-cause mortality during this period is a striking observation. Further research, including monitoring of all-cause and disease-specific mortality in different countries, is needed to better understand the direct effects of COVID-19 and the measures that can be taken to reduce its burden.
Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...
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Buzz from the Beehive Reactions to news of the government’s readiness to make urgent changes to “the resource management system” through a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) suggest a balanced approach is being taken. The Taxpayers’ Union says the proposed changes don’t go far enough. Greenpeace says ...
I’m starting to wonder if Anna Burns-Francis might be the best political interviewer we’ve got. That might sound unlikely to you, it came as a bit of a surprise to me.Jack Tame can be excellent, but has some pretty average days. I like Rebecca Wright on Newshub, she asks good ...
Chris Trotter writes – Willie Jackson is said to be planning a “media summit” to discuss “the state of the media and how to protect Fourth Estate Journalism”. Not only does the Editor of The Daily Blog, Martyn Bradbury, think this is a good idea, but he has also ...
Graeme Edgeler writes – This morning [April 21], the Wellington High Court is hearing a judicial review brought by Hon. Karen Chhour, the Minister for Children, against a decision of the Waitangi Tribunal. This is unusual, judicial reviews are much more likely to brought against ministers, rather than ...
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The infrastructure industry yesterday issued a “hurry up” message to the Government, telling it to get cracking on developing a pipeline of infrastructure projects.The hiatus around the change of Government has seen some major projects cancelled and others delayed, and there is uncertainty about what will happen with the new ...
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Calling all journalists, academics, planners, lawyers, political activists, environmentalists, and other members of the public who believe that the relationships between vested interests and politicians need to be scrutinised. We need to work together to make sure that the new Fast-Track Approvals Bill – currently being pushed through by the ...
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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
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The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Pacific Media Watch Journalists who report on environmental issues are encountering growing difficulties in many parts of the world, reports Reporters Without Borders. According to the tally kept by RSF, 200 journalists have been subjected to threats and physical violence, including murder, in the past 10 years because they were ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards, Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in ...
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ACT's Rural Communities and Veterans spokesman Mark Cameron responds to cancellations and protests of ANZAC Day commemorations in Wellington. He says, "These pitiful attempts to detract from ANZAC Day are not at all indicative of the feelings of mainstream ...
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Until this month, Auckland swimmer Hazel Ouwehand had never met a qualifying time in an Olympic event for a New Zealand team, even as a junior. Now she’s very likely off to the Paris Olympics after swimming well under the qualifying standard in the 100m butterfly twice – both in ...
While Anzac Day has experienced a resurgence in recent years, our other day of remembrance has slowly faded from view.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand. Original illustrations by Hope McConnell.First published in 2022.The high school’s head girl and ...
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Oh no, another week at 4 !!
I have a serious 1st world problem.
I'm sick and tired of supermarket beer and wine.
I have a distinctive Scottish name and Scotch is my game.
As I've lived on my boat for the past 10 years I dont have a shore based delivery address so liquor deliveries at 4 dont work.
Oh woe is me.
Place your order and send it to my place, I will look after it for you
Any recommendations from past experiences ??
Can you not order and pick up at the local distribution centre. Know pre lockdown that if no one is at home they return to their yard and you can pick up packages the following day. Thee are a few whisky outlets that courier, so I have been informed.
Seems to me that if you're on your boat alone, you could share a bubble with someone onshore? Swap 'em a fresh fish in exchange for each delivery? (that might just be my BMI talking – I sink like a brick so that the prospect of good food is all that will conceivably get me onto water these days lol)
are swaps allowed under level four? (they weren't last time). Where are we at now with the whole virus on the groceries/courier package thing?
Haven't looked it up, but if it's within a combined bubble according to the rules, it's not the same as exchanging stuff willy nilly with the neighbours.
makes sense.
To help in your planning Johnr when you are able to purchase – I found this guy worth watching and he doesn’t go high end, whiskies that are “relatively” affordable Ralfy.com.
https://www.youtube.com/user/ralfystuff/videos
His background was being coffin-carrying Undertaker, the resulting shoulder damage meant me being off work
http://www.allthingswhisky.com/?p=177
https://whiskymag.com/story?ralfys-world
Now if you were in Campbeltown..
I'd buy a yacht with the money I'd got..
https://youtu.be/0ciCMsiPTbQ?t=14
Hi Macro.. you made Norm's night, he sang along with that. He comes from Dunblane.
🙂 My folks were from Campbeltown and the Isle of Gigha (off the Kintyre Peninsula).
G'gfather was a distillery man. There were 41 distilleries in the town at one stage.
very good Macro,I too am of Scottish descendant. och ah
The range of human actions when it comes to mask wearing and vaccination shows a population wide variation of behaviour in response to perceived threat. I'm guessing persistence of this trait confers a reproductive advantage.
for the species?
Serious question (Has the government ditched elimination?)
Last 3 days – Cases: 23, 20, 33
Today – Level 3 in Auckland in 8 days 'likely', 'Get vaccinated this week' (Not as safe after this week because re-opening even if cases are 20+ a day?)
Link for this interpretation? It doesn't read that way in nzherald reporting to me.
I do think the govt should be updating the wage subsidy to support businesses staying closed in Auckland.
They have and the payments up to a month after the lockdown.
That is my interpretation. I listened to the press conference and skimmed through the Herald article…what did you get from it?
I didn't see any suggestion that the level would necessarily reduce in a week or so. Just that maybe there was a suggestion lockdown was working and the level would reduce when it was safe to do so.
We are in L4 for at least a week, and then the Govt will review. I am sure they are acutely aware of the costs of an extended lockdown. But the costs of a Delta outbreak, when only 50% of the population is vaccinated, are horrendous. The health system is already falling apart. A Delta outbreak will demolish it, and wreck the economy anyway
In the press conference they said they have agreed "in principle" to move Auckland down to level 3 next Wednesday.
To make it simple, that still means at least a week.
Things are tracking well at the moment, so if that continues then L3 looks likely. But if the tail is longer than than expected, or a new cluster seems to pop up, it could be another few weeks.
There's no knowing, so no firm timetable. It just is what it is. Mate of mine is Buddhist – he seems to have the right vibe for this sort of shit.
Yep that's how I understood it too. Level 4 for another week, then if all going well, and only if numbers stay low, then level 3 after that. I didn't pick up on any indication of how long L3 would be, but imagine it would likely be two weeks.
My understanding of "in principle" is if things stay the same (i.e. 20+ cases a day, a handful of "concerning cases) Auckland will still move down to level 3 next Wednesday.
Only 15 today. Phew!
Steady at 20 cases a day for a week is bad. It means there's likely an unknown problem resulting in a plateau, and we aren't eliminating the bug.
What we should be seeing is a longish tail where knocking off the last few cases a day is as difficult as getting from 80 a day down to 20, but there's still progress on rolling average.
20, 20, 23, 15, 20, 19 is bad.
20, 15, 16, 12, 10, 8 is good.
20, 15, 12, 8, 0, 6 is even better.
My understanding of "in principle" is if things stay the same (i.e. 20+ cases a day, a handful of "concerning" cases) Auckland will still move down to level 3 next Wednesday.
In the press conference they said they have agreed "in principle" to move Auckland down to level 3 next Wednesday.
The crucial bit is the number of community cases where how they got the infection is unknown. Most of the cases are from known connections – typically family. Generally those cases are expected and people are already in isolation or quarantine when they test positive.
I think that the dangerous unlinked cases is currently 17 and falling. That is because they are indicative of undetected probably asymptomatic infection sources or clusters in community that can trigger new outbreaks
That said, we have had two unlinked cases over the weekend. That also said, it often takes a few days to to do things like getting the genomic analysis to eliminate where they didn’t get it from and to do a through look at possible points of contact.
The purpose of the lockdown is to isolate sources of infection – to eventually drop the numbers by providing no way for people to get infected. It isn’t there to stop people who have already been isolated because they could have been infected from not testing positive. We don’t have magic medical preventatives to stop that happening.
That is why when analysts are looking at reported cases, they are usually looking at measures like 7 days rolling averages to discern trends. It isolates random vagaries like how many people decided to get tested because the weather was better today.
Yes, although we are seeing some close contacts spreading the virus before they are isolating. They said "only a handful" of the 17 are concerning. Yesterday there were 34 unlinked cases and that dropped by half today which was sudden.
I agree, although since most of the people testing positive are people expected test positive, external factors affecting testing numbers would not have as much of an effect?
A RWNJ thought leader. Bless.
https://twitter.com/deonteleologist/status/1427716090650451970
Can someone please ask David how many deaths are acceptable, including his own parents/grandparents?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/451404/act-leader-david-seymour-calls-elimination-strategy-into-question
Based on Professor Gibson's research, up to 45,350 deaths may be acceptable, although he notes that that is an "unduly harsh assessment". That's the number – equivalent to two million fewer expected life years – which he has calculated based on our elimination strategy. His conclusion?
New Zealand’s safety-at-all-costs response to Covid-19 is likely to cause greater reductions in life expectancy than would eventuate with a more balanced response.
I wouldn't focus on David Seymour as he isn't in Government. If you're concerned about the loss of life, I'd focus on the current strategy.
https://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10289/14388/NZAE_Poster_Gibson_Life_Expectancy_Reductions_from_Covid_Response.pdf?sequence=14&isAllowed=y
Overall mortality due to country-specific strategic responses to the on-going COVID-19 pandemic will no doubt continue to be a matter of some debate within and between groups of public health professionals, economists and academics.
Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset
Gibson's an Economist, not a Medical Expert.
Oh, come on! it’s just a numbers game and it’s not like we’re talking about real people dying or something. \sarc