Daily review 14/10/2021

90 comments on “Daily review 14/10/2021 ”

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1. alwyn 1

   14 October 2021 at 5:49 pm

   I see that Kennedy's remark after the shambles that was The Bay of Pigs is equally true in New Zealand.

   "Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan"

   It would seem that Dr Caroline McElnay was stuck with announcing that there were 71 cases of Covid 19 today. Where was the PM? Where was Hipkins? Where was Bloomfield?

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300430651/covid19-outbreak-situation-report-what-happened-today-october-14
   • observer 1.1

     14 October 2021 at 5:54 pm

     This got old over a year ago. It's bad if they're there, it's bad if they're not, toss a coin for the tiresome.

     Different people on different days. As always. And decided in advance. But you know all this already.
     • Shanreagh 1.1.1

       14 October 2021 at 10:46 pm

       This tiresome thought in post 1 has surfaced on another board I frequent. Apart from being rubbish it is so obvious that they are not original spontaneous thoughts occurring across the nation.. Almost as if the Nats or whoevers have sent out talking points.

       Who cares who fronts? As long as they are competent and Hipkins and Robertson mostly certainly are competent. Bloomfield and McElnay similarly.

       I noticed that JC was very scathing that the PM did not front over this past weekend, as if she was having a zzzzz somewhere or just decided not to to walk down from Premier House. JC seemed to forget that the PM was in places like Murupara and the East Coast being part of a drive to up the vaccination rates in those areas.

       I know the work I feel is most important and it is not fronting a a weekend Beehive session that could be competently fronted by others
   • Dennis Frank 1.2

     14 October 2021 at 6:03 pm

     It intrigues me that there seems to be a deliberate policy of not explaining why govt policy has failed to contain the Delta spread whereas it succeeded with the original contagion last year. I'm aware Delta is way more infectious, but we have a tendency in the public to try and blame boundary runners for the spread. I haven't noticed any effort by the authorities to either confirm or deny whether they're guilty.

     Could be govt is clueless & prefers not to let on. Human nature. But the idea of transparent governance is that you inform the public when it's in the public interest. I reckon people like to connect cause & effect, so if they don't get official explanations they just make it up as they go along. Semi-plausible narratives will get traction. Dunno if it's wise of officialdom to turn a blind eye to those.
     • SPC 1.2.1

       14 October 2021 at 6:30 pm

       It's pretty obvious

       1.case numbers spread out a lot in the initial period, so it took a month to shut the clusters down.

       2. to then eliminate would have required weeks more at Level 4 (tough but doable – the government now likes to say, there was no guarantee it would have worked as reason to give up on elimination this year).

       2a – they were complacent under elimination and did not have rapid testing at essential workplaces (such as a 15 minute test before entry into a hospital).

       3. the plan to open up – including a trial of business workers in home isolation (some risk) before opening up next year with vaccination rolled out.

       The dichotomy between 2 and 3 was too much.

       So they moved to Level 3 and committed to never going back to Level 4. Instead they had a plan to go down towards level 2 via Level 3 lite.

       Now we have community spread that will go over 100 a day by the end of the month. It'll go higher in November and modellers will call for a Level 4 period to take numbers back down again – at some point this is likely (if only for a week or two).

       We'll cope provided

       1. we contain it in Auckland – then we can transfer health workers into Auckland as need be.

       2. we get boosters to those vaxxed earlier in the year to prevent breakthrough infections in health workers and the medically vulnerable (oldies before Christmas).
       • Forget now 1.2.1.1

         14 October 2021 at 7:27 pm

         we contain it in Auckland – then we can transfer health workers into Auckland as need be.

         Even giving you the first part of that proviso; SPC (which seems optimistic), where do you propose that we get the health workers to transfer into Auckland? NZNO members in particular are unlikely to do so simply because the current Minister of Health asks them to! Which leaves Immigration or Conscription – both problematic to my mind.
         • SPC 1.2.1.1.1

           14 October 2021 at 7:43 pm

           6 more weeks containment in Auckland till we get to the second dose plus 2 weeks for full immunity is what is wanted/needed

           Staff have already gone to one Auckland hospital to help out, and given our increased ICU capacity consists of local nurses recently trained up (and with no experience in this work) or more experienced staff who have managed few pandemic cases they might well volunteer for such secondment – either as completion of their training or preparation for their 2022 jobs locally.
           • weka 1.2.1.1.1.1

             14 October 2021 at 8:19 pm

             what's the fully vaxxed rate for Auckland currently? Had a look before and couldn't find it.
             • SPC …

               14 October 2021 at 8:47 pm

               Auckland is c65% double vaxxed, and over 85% single dose.

               https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#group

               Just scroll the page to the DHB per 1000 stat.
               • weka …

                 14 October 2021 at 9:09 pm

                 thanks! The words in that chart didn't turn up on a keyword search.
               • weka …

                 14 October 2021 at 9:10 pm

                 are you thinking in 6 weeks Auckland will be at 90% double?
                 • SPC …

                   14 October 2021 at 9:11 pm

                   Yes.

                   Other areas will get there by the end of the year, but not all.

                   Oz and world data.

                   https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-global-vaccine-tracker-and-data-centre-20210128-p56xht.html
     • Nic the NZer 1.2.2

       14 October 2021 at 6:44 pm

       My understanding is that this is basically due to investigations taking more time than the speed of the news cycle. We have in some cases been made aware of how inter regional transmission might have started such as the guy from Auckland district courts going to outside Auckland (and apparently catching it off his transport). I also doubt the media would do much with comprehensive case notes anyway because these would necessarily be days to weeks out of date and the focus is going to be on whats just happened today.
   • Nic the NZer 1.3

     14 October 2021 at 6:54 pm

     As usual Alwyn I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes, sayings and especially the prior promises and eventual failures of our (more left leaning) elected representatives.

     Can you let us in on your secret. Do you keep a database of things Jacinda said, or that Grant put his hand in the pocket for? Do you have a revision schedule for keeping up to date with the latest let down?
     • alwyn 1.3.1

       14 October 2021 at 7:26 pm

       My only comment here about Ms Ardern was that she didn't appear to be at today's briefing. That is the only thing I said. How does that become something to cause you to decide that you should come out with " I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes," etc?
       • weka 1.3.1.1

         14 October 2021 at 8:21 pm

         that's not all you said. You also said via implication that Ardern, Hipkins and Bloomfield should have fronted announcing 71 cases instead of leaving it to McElnay.
       • Nic the NZer 1.3.1.2

         14 October 2021 at 9:51 pm

         Your right it wasn't your most insightful comment on here. Still I have no doubt you will lift your game again and could instantaneously roll out 3 election promises Labour have broken, two social justice memes involving Chloe Swarbric and one confidence and supply agreement clause which Winston never honoured. That just seems to be the calabre your in so I was inquiring about your training regemine.
   • fender 1.4

     14 October 2021 at 7:17 pm

     For an older "gentleman" you sure make a lot of childish noises.
   • chris T 1.5

     14 October 2021 at 7:32 pm

     Ardern tends to only to come out for def' in media on Mondays these days, unless it is certain questioners who ask difficult questions, then for the rest of the week, it depends on how bad the news is.

     Purely a guess from me, but they might have a 1-5 scale.

     3-5 bad send someone else out.

     1-2 Ardern fronts.

     Which though is probably completely bollocks, would be kind of sad given how well she fronted with Chch. Might be a dropping a fair bit in the old polls since the election thing.
     • observer 1.5.1

       14 October 2021 at 7:41 pm

       Ardern's most recent approval rating is 60%. Up slightly. This was from polling after last week's events, when the pundit chatter simply assumed that she had lost support, with no evidence.

       https://twitter.com/oneforthedr/status/1448457378370703367/photo/1
     • I Feel Love 1.5.2

       14 October 2021 at 7:42 pm

       Bollocks. She's in the regions encouraging people to get "jabbed", I think Tauranga or somewhere central NI?

       Side note, my 13 year old & I got our 2nd dose today, absolutely no side effects, I don't even have a sore arm this time. It's really remarkable how individualistic people's reactions to the vaccination are. My kid is fine too.
       • observer 1.5.2.1

         14 October 2021 at 7:46 pm

         Fantasists seem to think that each day there's a meeting of the cabal (what time? 9 am? 12?) and they decide what the PM is going to do that day, based on the case numbers.

         A moment's thought shows how absurd that is.
         • Tricledrown 1.5.2.1.1

           14 October 2021 at 9:24 pm

           Alwyn last time it was Jacinda hogging the lime light now your complaining because Jacinda is going to areas of low vaccination to encourage more vaccinations that's what you call a leader doing the right thing.

           Looking at Nationals support base what's left of it .All this whinging is getting you no where.
           • alwyn 1.5.2.1.1.1

             15 October 2021 at 1:10 pm

             Can you please show me where I claimed that "it was Jacinda hogging the lime light"?
       • chris T 1.5.2.2

         14 October 2021 at 7:55 pm

         Know what you mean.

         It is an interesting thing eh?

         Must just be a differing immune system balance or something, Or a genes thing.

         Almost makes me want to rock up to the uni library and do some reading.
         • Forget now 1.5.2.2.1

           14 October 2021 at 8:18 pm

           Chris T – you demonstrably have internet access. Why would you need to physically go to a uni library? Lots of usually paywalled data is freely available for the duration, try this for starters:

           https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus/collection?startPage=&currentPage=&ContentItemCategory=Articles

           IFL

           You might want to wait until after tomorrow before being too certain about having "absolutely no side effects". I was certainly a bit wiped out for a couple of days there!
           • chris T 1.5.2.2.1.1

             14 October 2021 at 8:28 pm

             Had my second a couple of weeks ago. Had nothing that time.

             First one.

             Wake up in morning. Walk to kitchen. Start to make cup of tea. Vomit.

             From that morning for about 36 hours on couch with bucket. Couldn't even hold water down.

             Mentioned it on another article. As I said then. I may just be a weirdo or it happened to co-incide with a bug or something. Never had anything that bad though. I haven't even had the flu before
             • I Feel Love …

               14 October 2021 at 8:49 pm

               Oh jeebus, wish I hadn't read that, was quite happy in my blissful ignorance! Fingers crossed I (& my kid) are one of the lucky ones.&nbsp

               First time I got flu jab years ago I was sick for a couple weeks, & I’d never had flu before (I didn’t even know there was a difference to the cold & the flu).
               • chris T …

                 14 October 2021 at 9:01 pm

                 I wouldn't worry about it. As I say, I may just be a weirdo or I happened to have a bug at the same time.

                 I work in a big department. 90% I spoke to basically said sore arm for a bit, either slightly sorer the first or second.

                 Couple of others felt a little nausea.

                 Only one other had the nausea hitting throwing up level thing, and theirs was just half a day or so.

                 Don't let it put anyone off. Everyone needs to do it, And the slim chance of a little discomfort is frankly a small price to pay for the greater good.

                 If it helps the second jab I made sure was Friday afternoon so if it happened again I had the weekend.
                 • chris T …

                   14 October 2021 at 9:24 pm

                   Should have probably added it was at least for me the weirdo, literally 36 hrs odd and then fine. It wasn't one of those things where it drags on after.

                   I was just by then insanely hungry and thirsty pretty quickly and probably would have disemboweled any stopping me getting to the fridge with my glass of chilled water and sandwich my wife kindly prepped for me.

                   She didn't have jack happen by the way. Pommy bitch! . Just looked at me the whole time sliding between pity and "You bloody wimp". She made some funny jokes about it to cheer me up though
   • left for dead 1.6

     15 October 2021 at 5:55 am

     @alwyn are you Bruce Russell in a closed orbit.
     • alwyn 1.6.1

       15 October 2021 at 1:17 pm

       Since I haven't the faintest idea who this friend of yours(?) named Bruce Russell is I couldn't possibly comment.
       • left for dead 1.6.1.1

         18 October 2021 at 8:19 am

         alwyn Mr Russell is a talking head along with Hoskings,the grave yard shift and sometimes spins old day music for those types that yearn for the old times.
   • Shanreagh 1.7

     15 October 2021 at 1:58 pm

     Just so the 'sillies' can't make up any theories or rave on about the PM not attending 1.00pm briefings, MOH has announced that the weekend's updates will be via its mailouts/website.

     Probably so everyone who can be, is working on the Vaxathon.

     I wonder what the anti PM/Govt talking points will be in the coming week?

     One Nat supporter on the board where the talking points about the PM & attendance were also raised around the same time as Alwyn's, was moved to write that she did not know which was worse, having to combat Covid misinformation, or political weirdness about who fronts the 1.00pm briefings made as if it was relevant to Covid/ Health/vaccinations.
2. Peter 2

   14 October 2021 at 6:54 pm

   One of the weird things of the age. Ardern is on the covid conferences a lot and people complain. Apparently she's turning the saga into a PR exercise.

   And she comes on and she's all waffle and talking to us as if we're kids we’re told.

   Then she's not there and people wet their nappies. What the hell is that all about?
   • observer 2.1

     14 October 2021 at 7:12 pm

     It's the political equivalent of searching through the TV channels to find the sex and violence so they can complain about all the sex and violence on TV … with a little too much enthusiasm.
     • Forget now 2.1.1

       14 October 2021 at 7:33 pm

       My thought is that is simply projection from the critic's own worldview. So when say; Collins, claims that Ardern is milking 1pm briefings for favorable publicity, what she really means is that if she was in Ardern's position, that's what she'd do herself.

       Sometimes lies tell you more than truths – at least about the person speaking.
3. chris T 3

   14 October 2021 at 7:45 pm

   I actually think the govt did a good job with the initial shutdowns and it saved us some grief last year, though at the same time the roll out of the vaccine and the slowness nearly cancels it out in shitty work.

   I have continued to have mixed feelings about the whole elimination thing.

   Probably just me

   Can't help feeling it was an extremely expensive and damaging way to delay the inevitable for the entire country. god knows how many small businesses are going to go bust, (don't get me started on why butchers, hair dressers, etc etc can't, eating in outside areas are blocked).

   I also noticed in amongst medical and education being compulsarirally vaccinated. Where is the prostitutes? I kind of think they shoud kind of be mentioned.

   On the other hand it did give us time to build up a, if not ideal, decent vaxed number

   Sorry about the ranting ramble there. Was just thinking about stuff, feel free to ignore
   • McFlock 3.1

     14 October 2021 at 7:59 pm

     See, without modern medicine I probably would have died years ago. Even today my doctor and I play a little game where I live the life I like and he prescribes the best cocktail of meds that will keep me alive a bit longer.

     Why is this relevant? Because life is about delaying the inevitable.

     If everything goes tits up and we have 7k, 14k, 80k covid deaths, that's still a couple of years more life than those folks would have had under the "live with it in March 2020" crowd.

     Fuck businesses. We're talking about actual life, not livelihoods.
     • chris T 3.1.1

       14 October 2021 at 8:18 pm

       So you have given up on the whole trying to reduce poverty thing?

       If businesses go under, the owner goes under, and alll the owners workers lose their jobs.

       When the owner loses their job they may not be able to pay their mortgage and they lose their house. They may have more than one and are renting one or two. They lose aa well. The bank takes them and says forced sell. Families renting them are kicked out and have no where to live.

       The said owners laid off workers have now got no wage so they can't pay their mortgage. The bank takes their house and they have no where to live.

       Depending on their wage they may be renting out a flat. The bank takes this also and sells it and the renters are forced to move out with no where to live, because there is nothing cheap enough in the covid bordered area, so they hang out in a car.

       Or the only place the workers can find is some shit hole in no where to rent on the dole. So they have to move their kids to that place and their kids have to go to a new school and no longer can see their friends.

       But as you say 10s of thousands of people will probably go through this, but at least we kept out an inevitable get here disease for a few months
       • McFlock 3.1.1.1

         14 October 2021 at 8:26 pm

         If businesses need people to die in order to stay in existence, we're doing it the wrong way around.

         Maybe the tourism industry has to go the way of the asbestos industry. Maybe not. But killing people so some small businesses can continue operating without adapting is as callous as it is stupid.

         but at least we kept out an inevitable get here disease thousands of loved family members alive for a few months

         Fixed it for you.
         • chris T 3.1.1.1.1

           14 October 2021 at 8:35 pm

           How exactly are you killing people if they are vaxed?

           Just out of interest you do know 650 odd people die from car accidents and fku a year?

           How many people are YOU willing to let die because their cancer fiscreening/treatment and heart surgeries are being delayed by weeks because of the chance their might be an onslaught of covid people?

           Or are they not as important as people who chose not to be vaccinated, and have underlying health conditions?
           • weka 3.1.1.1.1.1

             14 October 2021 at 9:04 pm

             Are you aware that governments and health planners and modellers actually took into consideration things like delayed health care, and came to understand that more people would die and become disabled if covid was left to run free?

             It's not a chance of an onslaught of covid. That's a bizarre statement given what's happened in so many other countries in teh world in the past 18 months. Why would NZ be any different?

             Just out of interest you do know 650 odd people die from car accidents and fku a year?

             And you appear to be suggesting that we have a bunch of people die from covid in addition to those road and flu deaths. Besides, we do what we can to prevent those deaths, it's not like we go, oh can't spend money on making roads safer.
             • chris T …

               14 October 2021 at 9:10 pm

               Yes, but we don't destroy small businesses like butchers, hairdressers, and thousands the hospitality industry when they could be open, as they are no different from going to the pub, dentist or doctor because a car might hit a power pole
               • weka …

                 14 October 2021 at 9:42 pm

                 car accidents aren't infectious diseases. Really not following your argument here. We do a lot to prevent road deaths, it's not really anything to do with small businesses other than pubs etc, and we do prevention work there too.

                 We also ban drinking and driving, mandate people wear seatbelts, and have a speed limit.
                 • chris T …

                   14 October 2021 at 9:46 pm

                   "We also ban drinking and driving, mandate people wear seatbelts, and have a speed limit."

                   Not sure how banning drink drivers relates to stopping small business open, when others with even more danger can.

                   Again. Why are prostitutes/sex workers not named with education and medical as have to be vaxed?

                   Edit: Actually why are they not told they can’t operate. They are a legitimate business now.
           • weka 3.1.1.1.1.2

             14 October 2021 at 9:07 pm

             "How exactly are you killing people if they are vaxed?"

             Death rate is lower in vaxxed people, not non-existent.
             • chris T …

               14 October 2021 at 10:05 pm

               Yeah I know. Looked after I posted that sorry.

               It is actually not reassuringly low really, vut a shedload better than not being vaxxed.

               Kind of like playing russian roullette.

               100 shooter pistol.

               You get 5 bullets in it if just sit around. Or 1 if you ram this needle in your arm.

               Sorry. Sick analogy

               Edit: Bad math.

               1000 bullet gun

               50 bullets sit around

               5 get wounded and have to go to hospital

               1/2ish bullet if you jab this needle in arm twice

               Probably bad math. Bit late and just about to go to bed
           • miravox 3.1.1.1.1.3

             14 October 2021 at 9:16 pm

             “How many people are YOU willing to let die because their cancer screening/treatment and heart surgeries are being delayed by weeks because of the chance their might be an onslaught of covid people?”

             You have this the wrong way round – delays for the possibility of covid is nothing like the massive demand on hospitals due to actual covid when a 'live with it' strategy was used. For example, from the British Medical Journal:

             https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n339

             Why have waiting times increased so much? Solid evidence is not yet available, but several contributors are likely. Operating theatres and outpatient clinics were closed as they became needed to treat patients with covid-19 during the first wave in 2020. Surgical staff, particularly junior surgical and nursing staff, were redeployed to provide cover for extra beds occupied by patients with covid-19 and for staff unable to work because they had covid-19 or were isolating …

             Predictive modelling suggests that around 28 million operations were cancelled or postponed globally during the peak 12 weeks of the first wave; this number will surely increase as the pandemic progresses …

             In the US, one study estimated that a backlog of at least one million orthopaedic surgical cases would remain two years after elective surgery stopped being deferred because of covid-19
             • chris T …

               14 October 2021 at 9:36 pm

               With all due respect. You can't just pluck that from the UK from 8 months ago when piss all people were vaccinated (I think they are still sitting on less than 75% first vaccunation even now) and use it as a model for how it will play out here.
               • weka …

                 14 October 2021 at 9:42 pm

                 are you suggesting that the modelling for NZ, once we are at 90% vax rate is wrong or can't be trusted?
                 • chris T …

                   14 October 2021 at 9:52 pm

                   Putting aside I wouldn't trust that Hendy dudes (or whatever his name is) not at all.

                   I was just pointing out the linmiravox posted with the quote was from Feb when piss all people in the UK were vaccinated.
                   • Stuart Munro …

                     15 October 2021 at 5:56 am

                     I wouldn't trust that Hendy dudes, not at all.

                     Of course not – a professional actually competent to model outbreaks? He debunks all your reckons without breaking a sweat.
               • McFlock …

                 14 October 2021 at 10:03 pm

                 Even at a 95/95/95 assumption (95% vaxxed, 95% no infection in vaxxed, 95% no hospitalisation of infected vaxxed person), that leaves:

                 750k 0-12yo to spread or get the disease

                 250k 12+ who are unvaccinated

                 In addition to those million people, there are another 200k vaxxed people who do not have full protection.

                 So about a fifth of our population will still be vulnerable to delta. With a vulnerable group that large, what do you think the transmission numbers will be?
                 • chris T …

                   14 October 2021 at 10:13 pm

                   The vast vast vast vast vaster daylight vast ratio of (Not sure about babies) under 12s wouldn't even know they had it, let alone take long to lose it
                   • McFlock …

                     14 October 2021 at 10:15 pm

                     Well, assuming even none of them actually get symptoms, there are almost half a million people they can give it to (after trading it to each other at school).
                 • chris T …

                   14 October 2021 at 10:33 pm

                   Sorry. Reply button gone

                   Yeah, but it is just going to happen. As I said earlier. It is a delay to the inevitable. Holding a crucifix up to stop an avalanche hitting you.

                   I mean a kid under 12 gets it and they inevitably will and spread it, it ain't like you can stop them play fighting, cuddling, with each other, or make them keep masks on. It spreads exponentially.

                   It is what it is

                   I would pity parents who tried to though. While also I think I would find it funny watching them try to 🙂

                   Just need to make sure enough people are vaccinated as possible. And I won't bring up lack of ICU prep, but will probably do on another day
                   • McFlock …

                     14 October 2021 at 11:05 pm

                     No, it'll never happen. Because that was 95/95/95.

                     At 90/95/95, that's ~750k kids to spread it, ~430k unvaxxed >=12yo, and ~190k vaxxed but it didn't take.

                     The longer we put it off, the higher the vax number is and the fewer unvaxxed adults are out there – even if you think child covid won't really happen (it does, but that's another argument).

                     Sure, ICU beds are an issue, and general health equity, and shit housing (especially emergency housing for poor people). These are the systemic issues over decades that have sown what we reap.

                     But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, they aren't reasons to just let covid run free as soon as possible. The way to victory here is constant delaying. Cunctator-stylez.
                   • chris T …

                     15 October 2021 at 12:00 am

                     "You know what's more tough? Actually dying."

                     Currently in NZ we have had 2 die and a fairly high inoculation rate and climbing now, so please don't quote shit unvaccinated countries from months ago

                     "Saying everything should open up"

                     That isn't what I said but feel free to quote me saying it.

                     I said places like butchers and hairdressers. Because you know. How dumb arse it I can't get cheap steaks wrapped in paper from a dude in a butcher only he touched with plastic gloves, while then walk to a super market and fart around with a trolley 20 people have used.

                     And again why are sex workers not closed and forced to vax as it is apparently a ligitamate businesses from labour.

                     It can't be hard. They contact them through their tax returns and GST claims to vonfirm it
                   • McFlock …

                     15 October 2021 at 12:15 am

                     Currently in NZ we have had 2 die and a fairly high inoculation rate and climbing now, so please don't quote shit unvaccinated countries from months ago

                     Well, it's not like you've presented any others. You don't like my numbers, you don't like Hendy's numbers, how many people do you think will die when we go to level 2 permanently? To keep hairdressers and independent butcheries open so you can have a nice steak?

                     And going all Palpatine with "it is inevitable" ignores the fact that the longer we wait, the higher our vax level. Where do you think diminishing returns come in? When half a million 12+ are unvaxxed? 750k? 250k? You reject Hendy's numbers, fair enough. Whose numbers do you figure are reasonable? As you say, from a couple thousand cases in a largely vaxxed population we've had two dead and currently 617 active cases and 26 in hospital.

                     How many cases will occur to make you put up with a supermarket steak (and they should have sanitising wipes for the trolley, complain if they don't)?
                   • McFlock …

                     15 October 2021 at 12:22 am

                     And again why are sex workers not closed and forced to vax as it is apparently a ligitamate businesses from labour.

                     It can't be hard. They contact them through their tax returns and GST claims to vonfirm it

                     Are the brothels still open? How does one "close" an itinerant sex worker? If indeed those rumours are true, rather than just dodgy assumptions.

                     Actually, the businesses with regular accounts probably qualify for the wage relief. In lieu of providing other relief. And, like hairdressing, I suspect that the business value is in the skills and practitioner reputation rather than capital investment, so would be easier to start up again if things go tits-up.
                 • chris T …

                   14 October 2021 at 11:30 pm

                   I didn't mean child covid won't happen. I meant as they play together the vast vast vast majority will be fine while then giving it to adults who may not be.

                   Now parks are open. it is just going to happen.

                   Agree health lack of infrestucture is a decades old issue and there are two certain PM's who spent 18 years between them in charge who basically fucked it. Same with housing, but another discussion.

                   "But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, "

                   They are dying and looking at having to tell their staff they are sacked. How hard is this to get?

                   The wage subsidy cover exactly that. Not rent. Power. GST. Insurance. ACC. Food spoilage and throwing away because the govt demands we have to wait till a certain time on a monday afternoon to say any actual shit and they have to be prepared at any time to try to open.

                   And even that has a limit of 600 bucks a week I think and is taxed, so the small business owner has to top that up so their staff can pay shit like their mortgage when they are normally on about 2 k a week And you have to justify it every 2 weeks

                   I know Labour don't get it as they think all businesses are the size of Microsoft as and all the business owners are evil, none have had to run one, but they need to to start sourcing advice from the business community rather than tight arsed, probably still living with mum stats dude from Wellington.
                   • McFlock …

                     14 October 2021 at 11:45 pm

                     They are dying and looking at having to tell their staff they are sacked. How hard is this to get?

                     No they're not dying. They're looking at losing money and winding up their business.

                     I'm involved with a peekaboo (lol pcbu in the osh parlance) that is in the shit right now. We will probably be able to keep operating, but yeah, it's tough.

                     You know what's more tough? Actually dying.

                     Saying everything should open up and disease should walk the land so I can keep my business profitable would be almost sociopathic. But there's this affliction amongst many SMEs where their owner-operators care more about their bottom line than literally the lives of other people.

                     So yeah, we can still minimise the spread until as many people are vaccinated who can be. Some kids in parks might spread it around a bit more than everyone adhering to L4 standards, but full classrooms definitely will. Same with malls.
                 • chris T …

                   15 October 2021 at 12:22 am

                   I never aid Auckland should go to level 2. It is fairly obvious it won't for a while.

                   I just said small businesses like butchers and hairdressers etc etc should be allowed to open.

                   I have tried to be diplomatic but frankly I am beginning to run out of patience, The govts qualification for who can open and can't with risk at level 3 in Auckland is fucking shit.

                   OK Let me put it this way as the other isn;t working. Why can't butchers be open with proper shop access?
                   • McFlock …

                     15 October 2021 at 12:37 am

                     Why can't butchers be open with proper shop access?

                     Some possibilities come to mind:

                     • Lower numbers of people going to work lowers the spead.
                     • Supermarkets are open anyway (although not sure their meat counters were attended under L3? My local just had the refridgerated shelves, no actual butcher measuring stuff out). Having supermarkets and butchers open is redundant – at least hairdressers provide a different service.
                     • Limited venues means controlled access easier to monitor by wandering cops/inspectors.
                     • Lower number of queues for contagious person to stand in while shopping that day means lower number of places of interest in a couple of days time.
                 • chris T …

                   15 October 2021 at 12:24 am

                   And you never answered why sex workers don't have to be vaccinated and why they are open when butchers aren't

                   Edit: And please don’t say anonymity given they would have done the GST and tax things.
                   • McFlock …

                     15 October 2021 at 12:47 am

                     I'm pretty sure that sex workers shouldn't actually be operating under L3, so not sure what power a vaccine mandate would hold over the ones currently operating.

                     But also I'm not sure all of them operate as registered businesses with appropriate ACC levy registration (which would probably be slightly more accurate than companies or gst documentation – for the ones that do their full paperwork).

                     I mean, stunning idea for people in the privileged classes I know, but not all financial transactions or operations are duly reported to the government.
                 • chris T …

                   15 October 2021 at 12:39 am

                   I was being a bit tongue and check there to be fair.

                   I just saw the two head up north and was wondering if/how they could claim it.

                   They are probably in the in the shit business group.

                   But then it has always slightly annoyed by they are now being treated as a proper job they never have to pay tax.

                   (legitamate brothel establishments excluded)
                   • chris T …

                     15 October 2021 at 12:50 am

                     And I know I have a weird sense of humour. (Dusclaimer)

                     But I was wondering if they were covered now by ACC work wise if they got injured by using props in their workplace

                     Edit: Kind of cut hand while clients girls school skirt belt swished too much. He was ok, type thing.

                     ACC: “Sweet as. We will pay this for the hand therapist”
                   • McFlock …

                     15 October 2021 at 12:50 am

                     oh, they wouldn't be the only trades offering cheaper jobs for cash payments.
                   • McFlock …

                     15 October 2021 at 12:53 am

                     But I was wondering if they were covered now by ACC work wise if they got injured by using props in their workplace

                     Almost certainly not. But then ACC would have probably written off their RSI as a pre-existing injury anyway lol
               • miravox …

                 14 October 2021 at 10:15 pm

                 You can't just pluck that from the UK from 8 months ago

                 Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy. The most likely scenario for delays in non-covid treatment, is covid itself, not some strategy of bed and appointment blocking 'just in case' (in fact NZ did clear space for the worst happening but we never had to implement that plan in any major way).

                 We can't use NZ as an example of what happens when we open up now – because it the covid pandemic didn't happen, we're not starting with a covid-induced backlog. We'll find out more in our vaccinated future shortly.

                 As weka suggests, they plan for this stuff. That's the question – do you trust the planning or not?
                 • chris T …

                   14 October 2021 at 10:22 pm

                   Depends who is doing the planning. I certainly don't trust that hendy dude's who was basically just given millions bt labour with no proper best of practice on who to use.

                   "Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy."

                   This is a fair point.

                   I did say it was a rambling rant, but I should have been more clear in the difference status of countries situations vax verse infection wise, sorry.
         • chris T 3.1.1.1.2

           14 October 2021 at 8:36 pm

           I am also going to hold you to that thousands estimate of deaths
           • McFlock 3.1.1.1.2.1

             14 October 2021 at 9:20 pm

             How? That's what would have happened if the business uber alles crowd had gotten their way a year and a half ago. Look at… damned near every other nation on the planet.

             And the impact on other medical care is a valid, quantifiable question to ask (with reasonable data and reporting) – but it's a lot different to removing disease controls so we can preserve the cashflows of "just cutz" or "try hair".

             But then you'd also be factoring in ICU occupancy during a pandemic and other outbreak-related impacts on the healthcare system, right? Right?

             As for vaccination, it's a tool in the box. But it's not 100%, and some people will still die when this thing is endemic. That happens. And the predicted math of dead in that circumstances should be balanced against any dead you happen to be able to think of when you are reminded why we have these allegedly business-destroying lockdowns (although our GDP seems to suggest that a healthy population has fewer lockdowns and more economic activity than a plagueland).

             But the business sector should not be a consideration in any "opening up" decision.
       • joe90 3.1.1.2

         14 October 2021 at 8:42 pm

         Now do the costs associated with hundreds of people likely not working, or working reduced hours, for months post infection.

         How will this play out for the working population?

         Using UK data to inform assumptions around vaccination effectiveness at stopping infections and lowering the likelihood of hospitalisation if infected, we have projected numbers of cases, hospitalisations, ICU and ‘long COVID’
         for Australian workers consistent with the Doherty modelling.
         In summary, our projections result in just over 100,000 COVID-19 infections in workers leading to around 10,000 hospitalisations, of which 700 are admitted to ICU. Up to (or perhaps even exceeding) 7,000 long COVID cases may develop who are fully off work, and twice as many again will still be on reduced work, 7 months later.
         Vaccination changes the risk of infection and hospitalisation significantly. 42,000 COVID-19 cases are projected from the vaccinated workforce of 7.2 million workers. 64,000 COVID-19 cases are projected to come from unvaccinated workers (1.8 million workers).

         https://www.finity.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/WC_COVID-19_dfinitive_Oct_2021.pdf
         • chris T 3.1.1.2.1

           14 October 2021 at 8:52 pm

           Andrew little said on the radio tonight that 95% of infections will not have to go to hospital and can be looked after with visits to home for food etc.

           Has he not read you 10% hospitalisation modelling?

           Also. You can't model long covid. They are still not sure what it is.
           • weka 3.1.1.2.1.1

             14 October 2021 at 9:06 pm

             long covid rates are estimated to be between 10% and something like 30%. That rate should be lower in fully vaccinated people, but, we don't know yet how that will play out, and we don't know if new variants will be worse.
           • Patricia Bremner 3.1.1.2.1.2

             14 October 2021 at 9:22 pm

             Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
           • joe90 3.1.1.2.1.3

             14 October 2021 at 9:24 pm

             Hospitalisations aside, anywhere between an estimated 25% and 80% of infected patients will be saddled with one or more long-term symptom/s. Should those numbers come to pass, good luck accessing anything resembling timely medical care in a health system that's near on it's knees today.
           • McFlock 3.1.1.2.1.4

             14 October 2021 at 9:31 pm

             5%. 10%. It's still a significant number when we aren't doing lockdowns for each and every community case.
             • chris T …

               14 October 2021 at 9:41 pm

               Yeah, fair point.

               I think one of the things on our side. (Well apart from Auckland maybe. Sorry guys!), is the fact we have a pretty impressive amount of space to people ratio outside the big cities.

               We may end up with Omega Man like cities and loads of farmers turning them into dairy farms. Moaning that Aucklanders only left them one bridge to get them to the milking sheds.

               (Sorry. That was a bad joke)
               • McFlock …

                 14 October 2021 at 10:10 pm

                 Apparently rural areas in the US are getting hit hard now – not just because of maga vax hesitancy.

                 Sure, one can spend all one's time on the farm, but one eventually goes into towd – the supply store, the bar, the church, the parts store, the vet supply store. And they see everyone in the area who eventually comes into town. The node with many edges comes into play again.

                 And then the farmers die in greater number because they're further from help.

                 It ain't the endtimes, but fuck it's depressing.
   • Rapunzel 3.2

     15 October 2021 at 6:31 am

     Hairdressers have been going gangbusters around lockdown restrictions, it's not something most people can generally do themselves, & you seem to not have noticed that butcher shops are probably at 10% of the numbers they once were at but not due to covid or any restrictions. They started to become a thing of the past due to supermarkets. Other businesses have modified how they do things in a meaningful way since the 2020 lockdown – local garage ie operates 4 days a week now not 5 with no reduction in anyone's wages or the volume of service they provide. They've condensed it to less down time over the week. There are valuable things to learn from operating more effectively, when done well it also benefits retail along the line as well
4. Anthonie Freeman de Villiers 4

   14 October 2021 at 8:09 pm

   Virus

   Threatening our very existence

   With grave and deadly persistence;

   Get the vaccine today

   There’s no other way –

   Upon this there is widespread insistence.
   • Forget now 4.1

     14 October 2021 at 8:41 pm

     Nearly; AFdeV, but something is off with the second line of your limerick. I think it needs another syllable in the second triplet (or at least a comma) eg With grave and most deadly persistance. Also There's & there is, would work better swapped between the fourth and fifth lines (or maybe On instead of Upon). Plus it's not obscene at all! Though I guess that could be implied in the threatened existence.
5. joe90 5

   14 October 2021 at 8:23 pm

   Who's a clever killing machine?

   https://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/1447850751787773956

   Ghost Robotics and SWORD International have teamed up to create a rifle-toting "robot dog." Called the Special Purpose Unmanned Rifle, or SPUR, the system adds a 6.5mm Creedmoor rifle from SWORD to one of Ghost Robotics' quadrupedal unmanned ground vehicles, or Q-UGVs.

   https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42717/robot-dogs-can-now-have-6-5mm-assault-rifles-mounted-on-their-backs
   • Ad 5.1

     14 October 2021 at 9:42 pm

     Can it shoot Pfizer darts?
6. Patricia Bremner 6

   14 October 2021 at 9:24 pm

   Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
7. weka 7

   14 October 2021 at 11:25 pm

   What’s the public supposed to do with this? IT expert says the vax app has medium security flaws, MoH IT dude says trust us it’s safe.

   https://twitter.com/radionz/status/1448404427841228803?s=21

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