I see that Kennedy's remark after the shambles that was The Bay of Pigs is equally true in New Zealand.
"Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan"
It would seem that Dr Caroline McElnay was stuck with announcing that there were 71 cases of Covid 19 today. Where was the PM? Where was Hipkins? Where was Bloomfield?
This tiresome thought in post 1 has surfaced on another board I frequent. Apart from being rubbish it is so obvious that they are not original spontaneous thoughts occurring across the nation.. Almost as if the Nats or whoevers have sent out talking points.
Who cares who fronts? As long as they are competent and Hipkins and Robertson mostly certainly are competent. Bloomfield and McElnay similarly.
I noticed that JC was very scathing that the PM did not front over this past weekend, as if she was having a zzzzz somewhere or just decided not to to walk down from Premier House. JC seemed to forget that the PM was in places like Murupara and the East Coast being part of a drive to up the vaccination rates in those areas.
I know the work I feel is most important and it is not fronting a a weekend Beehive session that could be competently fronted by others
It intrigues me that there seems to be a deliberate policy of not explaining why govt policy has failed to contain the Delta spread whereas it succeeded with the original contagion last year. I'm aware Delta is way more infectious, but we have a tendency in the public to try and blame boundary runners for the spread. I haven't noticed any effort by the authorities to either confirm or deny whether they're guilty.
Could be govt is clueless & prefers not to let on. Human nature. But the idea of transparent governance is that you inform the public when it's in the public interest. I reckon people like to connect cause & effect, so if they don't get official explanations they just make it up as they go along. Semi-plausible narratives will get traction. Dunno if it's wise of officialdom to turn a blind eye to those.
1.case numbers spread out a lot in the initial period, so it took a month to shut the clusters down.
2. to then eliminate would have required weeks more at Level 4 (tough but doable – the government now likes to say, there was no guarantee it would have worked as reason to give up on elimination this year).
2a – they were complacent under elimination and did not have rapid testing at essential workplaces (such as a 15 minute test before entry into a hospital).
3. the plan to open up – including a trial of business workers in home isolation (some risk) before opening up next year with vaccination rolled out.
The dichotomy between 2 and 3 was too much.
So they moved to Level 3 and committed to never going back to Level 4. Instead they had a plan to go down towards level 2 via Level 3 lite.
Now we have community spread that will go over 100 a day by the end of the month. It'll go higher in November and modellers will call for a Level 4 period to take numbers back down again – at some point this is likely (if only for a week or two).
We'll cope provided
1. we contain it in Auckland – then we can transfer health workers into Auckland as need be.
2. we get boosters to those vaxxed earlier in the year to prevent breakthrough infections in health workers and the medically vulnerable (oldies before Christmas).
we contain it in Auckland – then we can transfer health workers into Auckland as need be.
Even giving you the first part of that proviso; SPC (which seems optimistic), where do you propose that we get the health workers to transfer into Auckland? NZNO members in particular are unlikely to do so simply because the current Minister of Health asks them to! Which leaves Immigration or Conscription – both problematic to my mind.
6 more weeks containment in Auckland till we get to the second dose plus 2 weeks for full immunity is what is wanted/needed
Staff have already gone to one Auckland hospital to help out, and given our increased ICU capacity consists of local nurses recently trained up (and with no experience in this work) or more experienced staff who have managed few pandemic cases they might well volunteer for such secondment – either as completion of their training or preparation for their 2022 jobs locally.
My understanding is that this is basically due to investigations taking more time than the speed of the news cycle. We have in some cases been made aware of how inter regional transmission might have started such as the guy from Auckland district courts going to outside Auckland (and apparently catching it off his transport). I also doubt the media would do much with comprehensive case notes anyway because these would necessarily be days to weeks out of date and the focus is going to be on whats just happened today.
As usual Alwyn I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes, sayings and especially the prior promises and eventual failures of our (more left leaning) elected representatives.
Can you let us in on your secret. Do you keep a database of things Jacinda said, or that Grant put his hand in the pocket for? Do you have a revision schedule for keeping up to date with the latest let down?
My only comment here about Ms Ardern was that she didn't appear to be at today's briefing. That is the only thing I said. How does that become something to cause you to decide that you should come out with " I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes," etc?
that's not all you said. You also said via implication that Ardern, Hipkins and Bloomfield should have fronted announcing 71 cases instead of leaving it to McElnay.
Your right it wasn't your most insightful comment on here. Still I have no doubt you will lift your game again and could instantaneously roll out 3 election promises Labour have broken, two social justice memes involving Chloe Swarbric and one confidence and supply agreement clause which Winston never honoured. That just seems to be the calabre your in so I was inquiring about your training regemine.
Ardern tends to only to come out for def' in media on Mondays these days, unless it is certain questioners who ask difficult questions, then for the rest of the week, it depends on how bad the news is.
Purely a guess from me, but they might have a 1-5 scale.
3-5 bad send someone else out.
1-2 Ardern fronts.
Which though is probably completely bollocks, would be kind of sad given how well she fronted with Chch. Might be a dropping a fair bit in the old polls since the election thing.
Ardern's most recent approval rating is 60%. Up slightly. This was from polling after last week's events, when the pundit chatter simply assumed that she had lost support, with no evidence.
Bollocks. She's in the regions encouraging people to get "jabbed", I think Tauranga or somewhere central NI?
Side note, my 13 year old & I got our 2nd dose today, absolutely no side effects, I don't even have a sore arm this time. It's really remarkable how individualistic people's reactions to the vaccination are. My kid is fine too.
Fantasists seem to think that each day there's a meeting of the cabal (what time? 9 am? 12?) and they decide what the PM is going to do that day, based on the case numbers.
Alwyn last time it was Jacinda hogging the lime light now your complaining because Jacinda is going to areas of low vaccination to encourage more vaccinations that's what you call a leader doing the right thing.
Looking at Nationals support base what's left of it .All this whinging is getting you no where.
Chris T – you demonstrably have internet access. Why would you need to physically go to a uni library? Lots of usually paywalled data is freely available for the duration, try this for starters:
You might want to wait until after tomorrow before being too certain about having "absolutely no side effects". I was certainly a bit wiped out for a couple of days there!
Had my second a couple of weeks ago. Had nothing that time.
First one.
Wake up in morning. Walk to kitchen. Start to make cup of tea. Vomit.
From that morning for about 36 hours on couch with bucket. Couldn't even hold water down.
Mentioned it on another article. As I said then. I may just be a weirdo or it happened to co-incide with a bug or something. Never had anything that bad though. I haven't even had the flu before
Oh jeebus, wish I hadn't read that, was quite happy in my blissful ignorance! Fingers crossed I (& my kid) are one of the lucky ones. 
First time I got flu jab years ago I was sick for a couple weeks, & I’d never had flu before (I didn’t even know there was a difference to the cold & the flu).
Should have probably added it was at least for me the weirdo, literally 36 hrs odd and then fine. It wasn't one of those things where it drags on after.
I was just by then insanely hungry and thirsty pretty quickly and probably would have disemboweled any stopping me getting to the fridge with my glass of chilled water and sandwich my wife kindly prepped for me.
She didn't have jack happen by the way. Pommy bitch! . Just looked at me the whole time sliding between pity and "You bloody wimp". She made some funny jokes about it to cheer me up though
alwyn Mr Russell is a talking head along with Hoskings,the grave yard shift and sometimes spins old day music for those types that yearn for the old times.
Just so the 'sillies' can't make up any theories or rave on about the PM not attending 1.00pm briefings, MOH has announced that the weekend's updates will be via its mailouts/website.
Probably so everyone who can be, is working on the Vaxathon.
I wonder what the anti PM/Govt talking points will be in the coming week?
One Nat supporter on the board where the talking points about the PM & attendance were also raised around the same time as Alwyn's, was moved to write that she did not know which was worse, having to combat Covid misinformation, or political weirdness about who fronts the 1.00pm briefings made as if it was relevant to Covid/ Health/vaccinations.
One of the weird things of the age. Ardern is on the covid conferences a lot and people complain. Apparently she's turning the saga into a PR exercise.
And she comes on and she's all waffle and talking to us as if we're kids we’re told.
Then she's not there and people wet their nappies. What the hell is that all about?
It's the political equivalent of searching through the TV channels to find the sex and violence so they can complain about all the sex and violence on TV … with a little too much enthusiasm.
My thought is that is simply projection from the critic's own worldview. So when say; Collins, claims that Ardern is milking 1pm briefings for favorable publicity, what she really means is that if she was in Ardern's position, that's what she'd do herself.
Sometimes lies tell you more than truths – at least about the person speaking.
I actually think the govt did a good job with the initial shutdowns and it saved us some grief last year, though at the same time the roll out of the vaccine and the slowness nearly cancels it out in shitty work.
I have continued to have mixed feelings about the whole elimination thing.
Probably just me
Can't help feeling it was an extremely expensive and damaging way to delay the inevitable for the entire country. god knows how many small businesses are going to go bust, (don't get me started on why butchers, hair dressers, etc etc can't, eating in outside areas are blocked).
I also noticed in amongst medical and education being compulsarirally vaccinated. Where is the prostitutes? I kind of think they shoud kind of be mentioned.
On the other hand it did give us time to build up a, if not ideal, decent vaxed number
Sorry about the ranting ramble there. Was just thinking about stuff, feel free to ignore
See, without modern medicine I probably would have died years ago. Even today my doctor and I play a little game where I live the life I like and he prescribes the best cocktail of meds that will keep me alive a bit longer.
Why is this relevant? Because life is about delaying the inevitable.
If everything goes tits up and we have 7k, 14k, 80k covid deaths, that's still a couple of years more life than those folks would have had under the "live with it in March 2020" crowd.
Fuck businesses. We're talking about actual life, not livelihoods.
So you have given up on the whole trying to reduce poverty thing?
If businesses go under, the owner goes under, and alll the owners workers lose their jobs.
When the owner loses their job they may not be able to pay their mortgage and they lose their house. They may have more than one and are renting one or two. They lose aa well. The bank takes them and says forced sell. Families renting them are kicked out and have no where to live.
The said owners laid off workers have now got no wage so they can't pay their mortgage. The bank takes their house and they have no where to live.
Depending on their wage they may be renting out a flat. The bank takes this also and sells it and the renters are forced to move out with no where to live, because there is nothing cheap enough in the covid bordered area, so they hang out in a car.
Or the only place the workers can find is some shit hole in no where to rent on the dole. So they have to move their kids to that place and their kids have to go to a new school and no longer can see their friends.
But as you say 10s of thousands of people will probably go through this, but at least we kept out an inevitable get here disease for a few months
If businesses need people to die in order to stay in existence, we're doing it the wrong way around.
Maybe the tourism industry has to go the way of the asbestos industry. Maybe not. But killing people so some small businesses can continue operating without adapting is as callous as it is stupid.
but at least we kept out an inevitable get here disease thousands of loved family members alive for a few months
How exactly are you killing people if they are vaxed?
Just out of interest you do know 650 odd people die from car accidents and fku a year?
How many people are YOU willing to let die because their cancer fiscreening/treatment and heart surgeries are being delayed by weeks because of the chance their might be an onslaught of covid people?
Or are they not as important as people who chose not to be vaccinated, and have underlying health conditions?
Are you aware that governments and health planners and modellers actually took into consideration things like delayed health care, and came to understand that more people would die and become disabled if covid was left to run free?
It's not a chance of an onslaught of covid. That's a bizarre statement given what's happened in so many other countries in teh world in the past 18 months. Why would NZ be any different?
Just out of interest you do know 650 odd people die from car accidents and fku a year?
And you appear to be suggesting that we have a bunch of people die from covid in addition to those road and flu deaths. Besides, we do what we can to prevent those deaths, it's not like we go, oh can't spend money on making roads safer.
Yes, but we don't destroy small businesses like butchers, hairdressers, and thousands the hospitality industry when they could be open, as they are no different from going to the pub, dentist or doctor because a car might hit a power pole
car accidents aren't infectious diseases. Really not following your argument here. We do a lot to prevent road deaths, it's not really anything to do with small businesses other than pubs etc, and we do prevention work there too.
We also ban drinking and driving, mandate people wear seatbelts, and have a speed limit.
“How many people are YOU willing to let die because their cancer screening/treatment and heart surgeries are being delayed by weeks because of the chance their might be an onslaught of covid people?”
You have this the wrong way round – delays for the possibility of covid is nothing like the massive demand on hospitals due to actual covid when a 'live with it' strategy was used. For example, from the British Medical Journal:
Why have waiting times increased so much? Solid evidence is not yet available, but several contributors are likely. Operating theatres and outpatient clinics were closed as they became needed to treat patients with covid-19 during the first wave in 2020. Surgical staff, particularly junior surgical and nursing staff, were redeployed to provide cover for extra beds occupied by patients with covid-19 and for staff unable to work because they had covid-19 or were isolating …
Predictive modelling suggests that around 28 million operations were cancelled or postponed globally during the peak 12 weeks of the first wave; this number will surely increase as the pandemic progresses …
In the US, one study estimated that a backlog of at least one million orthopaedic surgical cases would remain two years after elective surgery stopped being deferred because of covid-19
With all due respect. You can't just pluck that from the UK from 8 months ago when piss all people were vaccinated (I think they are still sitting on less than 75% first vaccunation even now) and use it as a model for how it will play out here.
Even at a 95/95/95 assumption (95% vaxxed, 95% no infection in vaxxed, 95% no hospitalisation of infected vaxxed person), that leaves:
750k 0-12yo to spread or get the disease
250k 12+ who are unvaccinated
In addition to those million people, there are another 200k vaxxed people who do not have full protection.
So about a fifth of our population will still be vulnerable to delta. With a vulnerable group that large, what do you think the transmission numbers will be?
Well, assuming even none of them actually get symptoms, there are almost half a million people they can give it to (after trading it to each other at school).
Yeah, but it is just going to happen. As I said earlier. It is a delay to the inevitable. Holding a crucifix up to stop an avalanche hitting you.
I mean a kid under 12 gets it and they inevitably will and spread it, it ain't like you can stop them play fighting, cuddling, with each other, or make them keep masks on. It spreads exponentially.
It is what it is
I would pity parents who tried to though. While also I think I would find it funny watching them try to 🙂
Just need to make sure enough people are vaccinated as possible. And I won't bring up lack of ICU prep, but will probably do on another day
No, it'll never happen. Because that was 95/95/95.
At 90/95/95, that's ~750k kids to spread it, ~430k unvaxxed >=12yo, and ~190k vaxxed but it didn't take.
The longer we put it off, the higher the vax number is and the fewer unvaxxed adults are out there – even if you think child covid won't really happen (it does, but that's another argument).
Sure, ICU beds are an issue, and general health equity, and shit housing (especially emergency housing for poor people). These are the systemic issues over decades that have sown what we reap.
But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, they aren't reasons to just let covid run free as soon as possible. The way to victory here is constant delaying. Cunctator-stylez.
Currently in NZ we have had 2 die and a fairly high inoculation rate and climbing now, so please don't quote shit unvaccinated countries from months ago
"Saying everything should open up"
That isn't what I said but feel free to quote me saying it.
I said places like butchers and hairdressers. Because you know. How dumb arse it I can't get cheap steaks wrapped in paper from a dude in a butcher only he touched with plastic gloves, while then walk to a super market and fart around with a trolley 20 people have used.
And again why are sex workers not closed and forced to vax as it is apparently a ligitamate businesses from labour.
It can't be hard. They contact them through their tax returns and GST claims to vonfirm it
Currently in NZ we have had 2 die and a fairly high inoculation rate and climbing now, so please don't quote shit unvaccinated countries from months ago
Well, it's not like you've presented any others. You don't like my numbers, you don't like Hendy's numbers, how many people do you think will die when we go to level 2 permanently? To keep hairdressers and independent butcheries open so you can have a nice steak?
And going all Palpatine with "it is inevitable" ignores the fact that the longer we wait, the higher our vax level. Where do you think diminishing returns come in? When half a million 12+ are unvaxxed? 750k? 250k? You reject Hendy's numbers, fair enough. Whose numbers do you figure are reasonable? As you say, from a couple thousand cases in a largely vaxxed population we've had two dead and currently 617 active cases and 26 in hospital.
How many cases will occur to make you put up with a supermarket steak (and they should have sanitising wipes for the trolley, complain if they don't)?
And again why are sex workers not closed and forced to vax as it is apparently a ligitamate businesses from labour.
It can't be hard. They contact them through their tax returns and GST claims to vonfirm it
Are the brothels still open? How does one "close" an itinerant sex worker? If indeed those rumours are true, rather than just dodgy assumptions.
Actually, the businesses with regular accounts probably qualify for the wage relief. In lieu of providing other relief. And, like hairdressing, I suspect that the business value is in the skills and practitioner reputation rather than capital investment, so would be easier to start up again if things go tits-up.
I didn't mean child covid won't happen. I meant as they play together the vast vast vast majority will be fine while then giving it to adults who may not be.
Now parks are open. it is just going to happen.
Agree health lack of infrestucture is a decades old issue and there are two certain PM's who spent 18 years between them in charge who basically fucked it. Same with housing, but another discussion.
"But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, "
They are dying and looking at having to tell their staff they are sacked. How hard is this to get?
The wage subsidy cover exactly that. Not rent. Power. GST. Insurance. ACC. Food spoilage and throwing away because the govt demands we have to wait till a certain time on a monday afternoon to say any actual shit and they have to be prepared at any time to try to open.
And even that has a limit of 600 bucks a week I think and is taxed, so the small business owner has to top that up so their staff can pay shit like their mortgage when they are normally on about 2 k a week And you have to justify it every 2 weeks
I know Labour don't get it as they think all businesses are the size of Microsoft as and all the business owners are evil, none have had to run one, but they need to to start sourcing advice from the business community rather than tight arsed, probably still living with mum stats dude from Wellington.
They are dying and looking at having to tell their staff they are sacked. How hard is this to get?
No they're not dying. They're looking at losing money and winding up their business.
I'm involved with a peekaboo (lol pcbu in the osh parlance) that is in the shit right now. We will probably be able to keep operating, but yeah, it's tough.
You know what's more tough? Actually dying.
Saying everything should open up and disease should walk the land so I can keep my business profitable would be almost sociopathic. But there's this affliction amongst many SMEs where their owner-operators care more about their bottom line than literally the lives of other people.
So yeah, we can still minimise the spread until as many people are vaccinated who can be. Some kids in parks might spread it around a bit more than everyone adhering to L4 standards, but full classrooms definitely will. Same with malls.
I never aid Auckland should go to level 2. It is fairly obvious it won't for a while.
I just said small businesses like butchers and hairdressers etc etc should be allowed to open.
I have tried to be diplomatic but frankly I am beginning to run out of patience, The govts qualification for who can open and can't with risk at level 3 in Auckland is fucking shit.
OK Let me put it this way as the other isn;t working. Why can't butchers be open with proper shop access?
Why can't butchers be open with proper shop access?
Some possibilities come to mind:
Lower numbers of people going to work lowers the spead.
Supermarkets are open anyway (although not sure their meat counters were attended under L3? My local just had the refridgerated shelves, no actual butcher measuring stuff out). Having supermarkets and butchers open is redundant – at least hairdressers provide a different service.
Limited venues means controlled access easier to monitor by wandering cops/inspectors.
Lower number of queues for contagious person to stand in while shopping that day means lower number of places of interest in a couple of days time.
I'm pretty sure that sex workers shouldn't actually be operating under L3, so not sure what power a vaccine mandate would hold over the ones currently operating.
But also I'm not sure all of them operate as registered businesses with appropriate ACC levy registration (which would probably be slightly more accurate than companies or gst documentation – for the ones that do their full paperwork).
I mean, stunning idea for people in the privileged classes I know, but not all financial transactions or operations are duly reported to the government.
You can't just pluck that from the UK from 8 months ago
Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy. The most likely scenario for delays in non-covid treatment, is covid itself, not some strategy of bed and appointment blocking 'just in case' (in fact NZ did clear space for the worst happening but we never had to implement that plan in any major way).
We can't use NZ as an example of what happens when we open up now – because it the covid pandemic didn't happen, we're not starting with a covid-induced backlog. We'll find out more in our vaccinated future shortly.
As weka suggests, they plan for this stuff. That's the question – do you trust the planning or not?
Depends who is doing the planning. I certainly don't trust that hendy dude's who was basically just given millions bt labour with no proper best of practice on who to use.
"Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy."
This is a fair point.
I did say it was a rambling rant, but I should have been more clear in the difference status of countries situations vax verse infection wise, sorry.
How? That's what would have happened if the business uber alles crowd had gotten their way a year and a half ago. Look at… damned near every other nation on the planet.
And the impact on other medical care is a valid, quantifiable question to ask (with reasonable data and reporting) – but it's a lot different to removing disease controls so we can preserve the cashflows of "just cutz" or "try hair".
But then you'd also be factoring in ICU occupancy during a pandemic and other outbreak-related impacts on the healthcare system, right? Right?
As for vaccination, it's a tool in the box. But it's not 100%, and some people will still die when this thing is endemic. That happens. And the predicted math of dead in that circumstances should be balanced against any dead you happen to be able to think of when you are reminded why we have these allegedly business-destroying lockdowns (although our GDP seems to suggest that a healthy population has fewer lockdowns and more economic activity than a plagueland).
But the business sector should not be a consideration in any "opening up" decision.
Now do the costs associated with hundreds of people likely not working, or working reduced hours, for months post infection.
How will this play out for the working population?
Using UK data to inform assumptions around vaccination effectiveness at stopping infections and lowering the likelihood of hospitalisation if infected, we have projected numbers of cases, hospitalisations, ICU and ‘long COVID’
for Australian workers consistent with the Doherty modelling.
In summary, our projections result in just over 100,000 COVID-19 infections in workers leading to around 10,000 hospitalisations, of which 700 are admitted to ICU. Up to (or perhaps even exceeding) 7,000 long COVID cases may develop who are fully off work, and twice as many again will still be on reduced work, 7 months later.
Vaccination changes the risk of infection and hospitalisation significantly. 42,000 COVID-19 cases are projected from the vaccinated workforce of 7.2 million workers. 64,000 COVID-19 cases are projected to come from unvaccinated workers (1.8 million workers).
Andrew little said on the radio tonight that 95% of infections will not have to go to hospital and can be looked after with visits to home for food etc.
Has he not read you 10% hospitalisation modelling?
Also. You can't model long covid. They are still not sure what it is.
long covid rates are estimated to be between 10% and something like 30%. That rate should be lower in fully vaccinated people, but, we don't know yet how that will play out, and we don't know if new variants will be worse.
Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
Hospitalisations aside, anywhere between an estimated 25% and 80% of infected patients will be saddled with one or more long-term symptom/s. Should those numbers come to pass, good luck accessing anything resembling timely medical care in a health system that's near on it's knees today.
I think one of the things on our side. (Well apart from Auckland maybe. Sorry guys!), is the fact we have a pretty impressive amount of space to people ratio outside the big cities.
We may end up with Omega Man like cities and loads of farmers turning them into dairy farms. Moaning that Aucklanders only left them one bridge to get them to the milking sheds.
Apparently rural areas in the US are getting hit hard now – not just because of maga vax hesitancy.
Sure, one can spend all one's time on the farm, but one eventually goes into towd – the supply store, the bar, the church, the parts store, the vet supply store. And they see everyone in the area who eventually comes into town. The node with many edges comes into play again.
And then the farmers die in greater number because they're further from help.
Hairdressers have been going gangbusters around lockdown restrictions, it's not something most people can generally do themselves, & you seem to not have noticed that butcher shops are probably at 10% of the numbers they once were at but not due to covid or any restrictions. They started to become a thing of the past due to supermarkets. Other businesses have modified how they do things in a meaningful way since the 2020 lockdown – local garage ie operates 4 days a week now not 5 with no reduction in anyone's wages or the volume of service they provide. They've condensed it to less down time over the week. There are valuable things to learn from operating more effectively, when done well it also benefits retail along the line as well
Nearly; AFdeV, but something is off with the second line of your limerick. I think it needs another syllable in the second triplet (or at least a comma) eg With grave and most deadly persistance. Also There's & there is, would work better swapped between the fourth and fifth lines (or maybe On instead of Upon). Plus it's not obscene at all! Though I guess that could be implied in the threatened existence.
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Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
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New Zealand’s biggest-ever political donations scandal is finally at an end. But what is the conclusion? No one can really be sure.The Court of Appeal released its judgement on Tuesday about the Serious Fraud Office case against the NZ First Foundation. On the face of it, the court found ...
Buzz from the Beehive Waves of rain are set to lash much of the North Island during Easter Weekend as a low-pressure system forms east of New Zealand, according to a weather forecast published in the past day or so. Niwa was warning of a “moisture-laden” long weekend, with rain expected ...
Look around us…Nicola Willis’ promises of balancing the books, of cutting spending without reducing services, and of delivering game changing tax cuts are disappearing before her eyes.Everyday we see stories of violent crime ending in horrific injuries, or worse. The cost of living worsens, whereas the PM claimed renters would ...
TL;DR: My top six news of note on the morning of Thursday, March 28 include:The Government will have to borrow between $10 billion to $15 billion more than previously expected in order to make up for a slowing economy and to pay for $14.9 billion of tax cuts, according to ...
This story by Naveena Sadasivam and Kate Yoder was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The long-awaited jobs board for the American Climate Corps, promised early in the Biden administration, will open next month, according to details shared exclusively ...
Should landlords be able to deduct the interest on the loans they take out to bankroll their property speculation? The US Senate Budget Committee and Bloomberg News don’t think this is a good idea, for reasons set out below. Regardless, our coalition government has been burning through a ton of ...
Treasury’s first report on the economy since the change of government presents a damning indictment of Labour’s economic management. The problem for National is that it is so damning that logically, coupled with a rapidly slowing economy, Finance Minister Nicola Willis should respond to it by postponing or even cancelling ...
Budget tensions are becoming evident within the Coalition Government. Winston Peters made numerous political points in his speech to the NZF annual conference. But the attack on his own government’s fiscal policies raised issues of substance. ‘Today in the Sunday Star Times, journalist and former advisor to the Labour ...
Buzz from the Beehive The media – sure enough – have been binging on Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ release of the Budget Policy Statement and a statement headed Government announces Budget priorities This assures us – or rather, this parrots the Luxon team mantra – that the Budget “will deliver ...
The Ides of March brought me COVID followed by a bereavement. No wonder they tell you to be careful of them.I’m home now and have resumed the interrupted recuperation. Very much looking forward to getting back to regular things. Meanwhile, some thoughts…OneThis new Prime Minister guy just keeps getting more dire. ...
News that the Chinese ATP 40 cyber-hacking unit penetrated parliamentary internet networks in 2021 has renewed concerns about the PRC’s malign intentions in Aotearoa. But is the hack that significant given the length of time that has passed since its … Continue reading → ...
When Parliament passed the Intelligence and security Act in 2017, they assured us all that it was full of safeguards. Any intrusive surveillance of New Zealanders would be subject to a "triple lock", requiring the approval of the Minister and (supposedly independent) Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, as well as post-facto ...
Eric Crampton writes – Richard Harman’s Politik newsletter provides a bit of the context that ought to have been showing up in other media reports on potential reductions in public service staffing. Media has been reporting on staffing cuts on the order of about 7%. Is that ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – It’s becoming increasingly apparent that many perceive free speech to have become the preserve of the politically right wing, the religiously conservative, the libertarian fringe, the anti-trans, the anti-Māori and…. well, just fill in with whatever groups or individuals you don’t like and don’t ...
Don Brash writes – As everybody who is not blind and deaf is aware, there is a huge political preoccupation with climate change at the moment, a widespread (though by no means unanimous) belief that global temperatures are rising mainly as a result of the greenhouse gases created ...
TL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy on Wednesday, March 27 include:Chris Bishop laid out his vision for filling Aotearoa-NZ’s $100 billion infrastructure deficit in a speech yesterday, emphasising user pays and private funding, but failed to say how to achieve bipartisanship on population, public borrowing and ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Former Finance Minister Grant Robertson and former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins have been conveying how unhappy they are with the tax system. Last week in his valedictory speech, Robertson called for the introduction of a wealth or capital gains tax. And this week Hipkins ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Buzz from the Beehive China has loomed large in Beehive considerations over the past 24 hours, largely because of that country’s mischief-making in the cyber espionage department. Two media statements emerged on that subject hard on the heels of the PM baulking at questions put to him on RNZ’s Morning ...
Chris Trotter writes – WHY IS THE NATIONAL PARTY doing so much for landlords, property developers, trucking, and construction companies, and so little for everybody who isn’t already pretty well-off? It’s as if protecting landlords’ investments and building apartments and roads now constitute the whole of National’s ...
Bryce Edwards writes – When she was campaigning to be Minister of Finance last year, Nicola Willis pledged that she would resign from the job if she failed to deliver tax cuts in her first Budget. Now, it’s that pledge, along with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s ...
Robert MacCulloch writes – The Reserve Bank has doubled staff numbers in five years to 510, with personnel costs rising to $80 million in 2023 from $32 million in 2018 – up by a whopping 150%. I guess when you print $50 billion and flood markets with liquidity, ...
The furore. In case you didn’t notice there was a controversy in the weekend involving dolphins in a little town off the South Island. Don’t panic, they haven’t declared independence and resumed whaling, this was simply a sailing event.The problem began when racing was cancelled on the opening day of ...
For 20 years or more, the case for a meaningful capital tax gains has been mulled over and analysed to death, including by the tax working group chaired by Sir Michael Cullen. More than once, the International Monetary Fund has said a CGT would be a good idea for New ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: The Public Health Communications Centre (PHCC) call for urgent preventive action and a risk assessment survey of long covid in this briefing noteLocal scoop: NZ road deaths surpass OECD rates, so why is the govt reversing safety plans? ...
This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. This story is part of a collaboration with Grist and WABE to demystify the Georgia Public Service Commission, the small but powerful state-elected board that makes critical decisions about everything from raising ...
This is a guest post from Robert McLachlan Global warming is accelerating; 2023 was off the charts. We need to stop burning fossil fuels. In New Zealand, transport accounts for half of all fossil fuels burnt. In the Emissions Reduction Plan, transport emissions fall 41% by 2035. As the ...
Labour productivity has been receding rapidly over the past two years, reversing a post-lockdown rise. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy as at 6:26am on Tuesday, March 26 include:Workers have been treading water in output per hour worked for 12 years, ...
TL;DR: The key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to April 2 include:Today, Parliament resumes sitting at 2pm for the second week of a two-week session. Officials for SIS and GCSB report their annual reviews in public to the Intelligence and Security Select Committee from 5.10pm.Tomorrow, ...
Faced with a barrage of criticism over the promised tax cuts from usually supportive commentators, Finance Minister Nicola Willis yesterday reaffirmed her intention to include them in this year’s Budget. The Government is up against it over the cuts just about every way it turns. Commentators like Fran O’Sullivan, Matthew ...
Here’s my pick of today’s substack posts as of 6:26pm on Monday, March 25: writes via his substack that Market-rate housing will make your city cheaper writes via his substack about the problems talking to double-cab ute (truck) drivers about their vehicles. today about moments of radicalisation in ...
Buzz from the Beehive Just before Christmas, Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered something that was pitched as a mini-budget and brayed about the decisive action being taken to repair the Government books and support income tax relief in Budget 2024. In a statement headed Fiscal repair job underway. she introduced ...
My sister Belinda asked Dad yesterday what one word would describe Mum best. He said: vivacious.If you only knew her from the photos on the slideshow we've made for today,you might wonder about that, because the camera tended to lie with Mum.If ever she saw a camera pointed at her, she ...
There are two major public consultations closing in the next week, Auckland Council’s Long Term Plan (LTP), and the draft Government Policy Statement on Land Transport (GPS). Closing dates and times: LTP closes Thursday 28 February, at 11.59pm – a minute to midnight! GPS closes Tuesday 2 April, at 12pm noon – note that’s ...
From Kiwiblog’s David Farrar – Bryce Wilkinson writes: Senior Fellow Bryce Wilkinson’s analysis reveals that since March 2009, New Zealand has spent $158 billion more overseas than it has earned, but its NIIP has only fallen by $32 billion.Statistics New Zealand shows that receipts from overseas reinsurers have ...
Is she hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition? Brian Easton writes – The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is telling an evolving story about her fiscal challenges. In Opposition she was confident that she could ...
Dear Nicola Willis,Right now you’ve probably got lots of competing demands coming at you. Ministers who’ve inherited quite a mess, or so you’ve told us, looking for money in the budget to improve things. I imagine that’s why they came to parliament - to make things better.You’ll have to make ...
The Local Government, Transport and Auckland Minister hasthreatened councils with intervention if they don’t merge water assets to take them off balance sheet, just as the now-repealed Three Waters plan directed. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things of note this morning for Monday, March 25 include:Simeon ...
A listing of 36 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 17, 2024 thru Sat, March 23, 2024. Story of the week Thanks to John Mason having the stamina to sit down to watch "Climate - the Movie" ...
This morning the Q&A programme had Simeon Brown on to talk about National’s replacement for Three Waters. In case anyone’s forgotten the three are - drinking water, waste water, and sewerage. It’s quite important not to get them mixed up. In much the same way that you wouldn’t want to ...
Today’s newsletter comes with a mini-podcast conversation between me and my buddy Liv Tennet, talking about her time as a child actor in Lord of the Rings. It’s a conversation with a lot of giggles as she talks about falling off a horse, and becoming a meme. Read ...
The Desmog Climate Disinformation Database documents, "individuals and organisations that have helped to delay and distract the public and our elected leaders from taking needed action to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and fight global warming." It's a who's who of the organised climate change denial movement, in other words. In ...
Bob Edlin writes – A High Court judge has decided miscreants who have mana – or who claim to have mana – should be treated differently from miscreants who have none. It’s a ruling that suggests indigenous law-breakers have a better chance of securing a discharge without conviction ...
Welcome to the first, and possibly last, edition of Brickbats, Bouquets and Bull’s Wool. In which I’ll take a look at the events of the last week or so, and rate them.In such ratings the numbers usually have more to do with the opinions of the reviewer, than the actual ...
Roger Partridge writes – My earlier column this month, New Zealand’s highest court could be facing a turning point, prompted a flood of feedback from business readers and lawyers alike. A common query was what Parliament can do to restrain an overreaching judiciary. This week I discuss two steps Parliament ...
TL;DR: In today’s ‘six-stack’ of substacks at 6.16pm on Friday, March 22: writes about New Zealand's Building Boom—And What the World Must Learn From It over at his substack. challenges the Auckland Council’s use of a 3.8 degrees of warming forecast to oppose a wave-park and data centre project ...
Is she hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition?The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is telling an evolving story about her fiscal challenges. In Opposition she was confident that she could deliver her promised income tax cuts. Appointed minister, she ...
Buzz from the Beehive Ministers of the Crown have drawn attention to one sector of the science sector which is unlikely to be subjected to heavy spending cuts, a state-funded broadcaster which is doing nicely, thank you, and a sporting event that had $5.4 million from the public purse puffed ...
Abbott’s Freestyle Libre sensors allow continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). The sensor is applied to the back of the patient’s arm, with a thin filament under the skin measuring glucose levels constantly. But it costs around $100 per sensor and must be replaced once every 14 days. Photo by BSIP/Universal Images ...
The Inspector General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) recently released a report in which he exposes the existence of a foreign intelligence partner-controlled technological “capability” inside the headquarters of the GCSB, NZ’s 5 Eyes-affiliated signals intelligence collection and analysis agency. … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – Nearly three decades after the introduction of MMP and multiparty governments there should be a greater level of understanding about their finer points than often appears to be the case. The reaction to the despicable outburst from the Deputy Prime Minister at the weekend highlights ...
The sweet kisses from fruit of summerHave slowly been turning dullerYou say, "those times"And "remember the daysWhen we went outside and there still was the shade?"Taking no reason into play…Autumn. Clear, blue days shortening to longer nights, growing colder. Aotearoa.That’s us. The temperature dropping, the looming car crash - so ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “It is often said that behind every great man is a great woman”. This is the pitch by the National Party Botany electorate branch to attend their “Ladies Afternoon Tea with Amanda Luxon”. For $110 including GST, you can turn up on Saturday 20 April ...
David Farrar writes – The Electoral Commission has published the expense returns for political parties for the 2023 election. I’ve put them in a table with how many votes a party got so we can see the spend per vote. National only spent $3.34 for every vote they got, almost ...
Winston Peters’ headline-making actions over the past week may have been a show of political power intended to strengthen his hand in Budget negotiations. It was no accident that his State of the Nation speech was as it was. He made it as New Zealand First Leader, not as Deputy ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson bowed out of politics this week, giving a series of exit ...
Graham Adams writes — If you love the law or sausages, as the saying goes, best not to look too closely at how they are made. And after watching the orgy of self-pity when Newshub’s closure was announced on February 28, television journalism should definitely be added to the list of those ...
Venerable New Zealand political commentator, Chris Trotter (https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/), is a sad creature these days. Once one of the most reliable Leftist writers out there – Economic Left at that – Trotter seems to have absorbed the worldview of Auckland culture-war obsessives. It is not for me to categorise what he ...
The cruelty of short-term memory loss is that each time you ask where she is, you get the fresh shock and grief of the news. That was Dad's day yesterday.Comfortingly, it seems to be less so today. Last night he looked crumpled, today he seems more settled. There's a card ...
Photo by Alvan Nee on UnsplashIt’s that new day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when and I co-host our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm. Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news ...
Buzz from the Beehive One minister is talking tough while a colleague – whose ministry had acted tough and drawn a barrage of flak – has shown an official softening. Some ministers are doing what Labour was good at, which is distributing public funds to causes regarded as worthy or ...
The Coalition Government’s plan to ‘get Auckland moving’ is a cuts cover-up that will ultimately cost Aucklanders more to move around the city, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Slashing the Ministry of Pacific Peoples by 40% will have a devastating impact on pacific communities and further highlights how little this government cares about anything other than cutting taxes for the wealthiest few. ...
Labour has proposed an urgent inquiry to investigate the ever-increasing profits of supermarkets, aiming to lower costs for shoppers and food producers alike, says Labour Spokesperson for Commerce and Consumer Affairs Arena Williams and Primary Production Spokesperson Cushla Tangaere-Manuel. ...
With 14% of jobs on the line at the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, the responsible Minister Melissa Lee is failing to stand up for the very communities she’s meant to be representing. ...
COURT OF APPEAL: TRIFECTA OF VICTORY FOR NZ FIRST, TRIFECTA OF FAILURE FOR OPPONENTS For the third time since April 2020, New Zealand First has defeated the Serious Fraud Office and all those complicit in a malicious attack against a political party going about its lawful business in a lawful ...
The Green Party stands with people who live in public housing, people in dire housing need, experts and advocates in demanding better than the Government’s archaic approach to housing those who need our support the most. ...
New Zealand has recently lost the hosting rights of some major international sporting events including the America’s Cup, the Rugby Championship, Netball World Cup, and the Wellington Sevens. We are now at a huge risk of losing SailGP as well. And it won’t stop there. The recent issues with SailGP ...
A Member’s Bill drawn this week would modernise insurance law and make things fairer and more transparent for consumers, Christchurch Central MP Duncan Webb said. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues has confirmed she was aware of funding issues in mid-December and did nothing to stop it. On 14 March, she signed off on changes that were announced and implemented on 18 March without any consultation with disability communities. ...
Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter says her members' bill is an opportunity for the coalition government to plug the gap in electric vehicle incentives. ...
The National Government continues to talk about irresponsible tax cuts that will only drive up inflation, despite the country entering a technical recession. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues must act urgently to reinstate flexibility around the funding for disability support and apologise to disabled carers. ...
This story has been initiated by a leftie shill reporter who proactively sought to call a member of a former band, which disbanded twelve years ago, give their biased appraisal of what was said in my speech, and concocted a ham-fisted attempt at a story that does nothing but show ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Many in the mainstream media have taken what was said in New Zealand First’s State of the Nation Speech in Palmerston North on Sunday and deliberately, deceitfully, and ignorantly misrepresented what I said and why I said it. The headlines and commentary on the news stated that I compared ‘co-governance ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
Good afternoon. Thank you for, in your very busy lives, turning up to this meeting today. On October 14th last year New Zealanders overwhelmingly voted for change. That is exactly what this new government is bringing. New Zealand First campaigned to ‘take back our country’ and stop the disastrous economic ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April. “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates. Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend. “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says. Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track. “Dam safety regulations ...
The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says. “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009. ...
The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government. “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function. The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union. “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says. “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
25 March 2024 Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders Small Business, Manufacturing, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly will travel to Australia for a series of bi-lateral meetings and manufacturing visits. During the visit, Minister Bayly will meet with his Australian counterparts, Senator Tim Ayres, Ed ...
Government commits almost $3 million for period products in schools The Coalition Government has committed $2.9 million to ensure intermediate and secondary schools continue providing period products to those who need them, Minister of Education Erica Stanford announced today. “This is an issue of dignity and ensuring young women don’t ...
Good morning, it’s great to be here. First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning. I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti has announced the Government’s commitment to the Auckland Secondary Schools Māori and Pacific Islands Cultural Festival, more commonly known as Polyfest. “The Ministry for Pacific Peoples is a longtime supporter of Polyfest and, as it celebrates 49 years in 2024, I’m proud to ...
Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
New Zealand has notched up a first with the launch of University of Canterbury research to the International Space Station, Science, Innovation and Technology and Space Minister Judith Collins says. The hardware, developed by Dr Sarah Kessans, is designed to operate autonomously in orbit, allowing scientists on Earth to study ...
Introduction Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today and I’m sorry I can’t be there in person. Yesterday I started in Wellington for Breakfast TV, spoke to a property conference in Auckland, and finished the day speaking to local government in Christchurch, so it would have been ...
The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed. “Northland has faced a number ...
New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
Commercial catch limits for some fisheries have been increased following a review showing stocks are healthy and abundant, Ocean and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The changes, along with some other catch limit changes and management settings, begin coming into effect from 1 April 2024. "Regular biannual reviews of fish ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand. My earlier article – Can ‘Good’ be the Greater Evil? – looked at the issue of how wars should end, and how Good versus Evil ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 AMMA by Saraid de Silva (Moa Press, $38)A stunning debut novel reviewed by Brannavan ...
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I see that Kennedy's remark after the shambles that was The Bay of Pigs is equally true in New Zealand.
"Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan"
It would seem that Dr Caroline McElnay was stuck with announcing that there were 71 cases of Covid 19 today. Where was the PM? Where was Hipkins? Where was Bloomfield?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300430651/covid19-outbreak-situation-report-what-happened-today-october-14
This got old over a year ago. It's bad if they're there, it's bad if they're not, toss a coin for the tiresome.
Different people on different days. As always. And decided in advance. But you know all this already.
This tiresome thought in post 1 has surfaced on another board I frequent. Apart from being rubbish it is so obvious that they are not original spontaneous thoughts occurring across the nation.. Almost as if the Nats or whoevers have sent out talking points.
Who cares who fronts? As long as they are competent and Hipkins and Robertson mostly certainly are competent. Bloomfield and McElnay similarly.
I noticed that JC was very scathing that the PM did not front over this past weekend, as if she was having a zzzzz somewhere or just decided not to to walk down from Premier House. JC seemed to forget that the PM was in places like Murupara and the East Coast being part of a drive to up the vaccination rates in those areas.
I know the work I feel is most important and it is not fronting a a weekend Beehive session that could be competently fronted by others
It intrigues me that there seems to be a deliberate policy of not explaining why govt policy has failed to contain the Delta spread whereas it succeeded with the original contagion last year. I'm aware Delta is way more infectious, but we have a tendency in the public to try and blame boundary runners for the spread. I haven't noticed any effort by the authorities to either confirm or deny whether they're guilty.
Could be govt is clueless & prefers not to let on. Human nature. But the idea of transparent governance is that you inform the public when it's in the public interest. I reckon people like to connect cause & effect, so if they don't get official explanations they just make it up as they go along. Semi-plausible narratives will get traction. Dunno if it's wise of officialdom to turn a blind eye to those.
It's pretty obvious
1.case numbers spread out a lot in the initial period, so it took a month to shut the clusters down.
2. to then eliminate would have required weeks more at Level 4 (tough but doable – the government now likes to say, there was no guarantee it would have worked as reason to give up on elimination this year).
2a – they were complacent under elimination and did not have rapid testing at essential workplaces (such as a 15 minute test before entry into a hospital).
3. the plan to open up – including a trial of business workers in home isolation (some risk) before opening up next year with vaccination rolled out.
The dichotomy between 2 and 3 was too much.
So they moved to Level 3 and committed to never going back to Level 4. Instead they had a plan to go down towards level 2 via Level 3 lite.
Now we have community spread that will go over 100 a day by the end of the month. It'll go higher in November and modellers will call for a Level 4 period to take numbers back down again – at some point this is likely (if only for a week or two).
We'll cope provided
1. we contain it in Auckland – then we can transfer health workers into Auckland as need be.
2. we get boosters to those vaxxed earlier in the year to prevent breakthrough infections in health workers and the medically vulnerable (oldies before Christmas).
Even giving you the first part of that proviso; SPC (which seems optimistic), where do you propose that we get the health workers to transfer into Auckland? NZNO members in particular are unlikely to do so simply because the current Minister of Health asks them to! Which leaves Immigration or Conscription – both problematic to my mind.
6 more weeks containment in Auckland till we get to the second dose plus 2 weeks for full immunity is what is wanted/needed
Staff have already gone to one Auckland hospital to help out, and given our increased ICU capacity consists of local nurses recently trained up (and with no experience in this work) or more experienced staff who have managed few pandemic cases they might well volunteer for such secondment – either as completion of their training or preparation for their 2022 jobs locally.
what's the fully vaxxed rate for Auckland currently? Had a look before and couldn't find it.
Auckland is c65% double vaxxed, and over 85% single dose.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#group
Just scroll the page to the DHB per 1000 stat.
thanks! The words in that chart didn't turn up on a keyword search.
are you thinking in 6 weeks Auckland will be at 90% double?
Yes.
Other areas will get there by the end of the year, but not all.
Oz and world data.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-global-vaccine-tracker-and-data-centre-20210128-p56xht.html
My understanding is that this is basically due to investigations taking more time than the speed of the news cycle. We have in some cases been made aware of how inter regional transmission might have started such as the guy from Auckland district courts going to outside Auckland (and apparently catching it off his transport). I also doubt the media would do much with comprehensive case notes anyway because these would necessarily be days to weeks out of date and the focus is going to be on whats just happened today.
As usual Alwyn I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes, sayings and especially the prior promises and eventual failures of our (more left leaning) elected representatives.
Can you let us in on your secret. Do you keep a database of things Jacinda said, or that Grant put his hand in the pocket for? Do you have a revision schedule for keeping up to date with the latest let down?
My only comment here about Ms Ardern was that she didn't appear to be at today's briefing. That is the only thing I said. How does that become something to cause you to decide that you should come out with " I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes," etc?
that's not all you said. You also said via implication that Ardern, Hipkins and Bloomfield should have fronted announcing 71 cases instead of leaving it to McElnay.
Your right it wasn't your most insightful comment on here. Still I have no doubt you will lift your game again and could instantaneously roll out 3 election promises Labour have broken, two social justice memes involving Chloe Swarbric and one confidence and supply agreement clause which Winston never honoured. That just seems to be the calabre your in so I was inquiring about your training regemine.
For an older "gentleman" you sure make a lot of childish noises.
Ardern tends to only to come out for def' in media on Mondays these days, unless it is certain questioners who ask difficult questions, then for the rest of the week, it depends on how bad the news is.
Purely a guess from me, but they might have a 1-5 scale.
3-5 bad send someone else out.
1-2 Ardern fronts.
Which though is probably completely bollocks, would be kind of sad given how well she fronted with Chch. Might be a dropping a fair bit in the old polls since the election thing.
Ardern's most recent approval rating is 60%. Up slightly. This was from polling after last week's events, when the pundit chatter simply assumed that she had lost support, with no evidence.
https://twitter.com/oneforthedr/status/1448457378370703367/photo/1
Bollocks. She's in the regions encouraging people to get "jabbed", I think Tauranga or somewhere central NI?
Side note, my 13 year old & I got our 2nd dose today, absolutely no side effects, I don't even have a sore arm this time. It's really remarkable how individualistic people's reactions to the vaccination are. My kid is fine too.
Fantasists seem to think that each day there's a meeting of the cabal (what time? 9 am? 12?) and they decide what the PM is going to do that day, based on the case numbers.
A moment's thought shows how absurd that is.
Alwyn last time it was Jacinda hogging the lime light now your complaining because Jacinda is going to areas of low vaccination to encourage more vaccinations that's what you call a leader doing the right thing.
Looking at Nationals support base what's left of it .All this whinging is getting you no where.
Can you please show me where I claimed that "it was Jacinda hogging the lime light"?
Know what you mean.
It is an interesting thing eh?
Must just be a differing immune system balance or something, Or a genes thing.
Almost makes me want to rock up to the uni library and do some reading.
Chris T – you demonstrably have internet access. Why would you need to physically go to a uni library? Lots of usually paywalled data is freely available for the duration, try this for starters:
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus/collection?startPage=¤tPage=&ContentItemCategory=Articles
IFL
You might want to wait until after tomorrow before being too certain about having "absolutely no side effects". I was certainly a bit wiped out for a couple of days there!
Had my second a couple of weeks ago. Had nothing that time.
First one.
Wake up in morning. Walk to kitchen. Start to make cup of tea. Vomit.
From that morning for about 36 hours on couch with bucket. Couldn't even hold water down.
Mentioned it on another article. As I said then. I may just be a weirdo or it happened to co-incide with a bug or something. Never had anything that bad though. I haven't even had the flu before
Oh jeebus, wish I hadn't read that, was quite happy in my blissful ignorance! Fingers crossed I (& my kid) are one of the lucky ones. 
First time I got flu jab years ago I was sick for a couple weeks, & I’d never had flu before (I didn’t even know there was a difference to the cold & the flu).
I wouldn't worry about it. As I say, I may just be a weirdo or I happened to have a bug at the same time.
I work in a big department. 90% I spoke to basically said sore arm for a bit, either slightly sorer the first or second.
Couple of others felt a little nausea.
Only one other had the nausea hitting throwing up level thing, and theirs was just half a day or so.
Don't let it put anyone off. Everyone needs to do it, And the slim chance of a little discomfort is frankly a small price to pay for the greater good.
If it helps the second jab I made sure was Friday afternoon so if it happened again I had the weekend.
Should have probably added it was at least for me the weirdo, literally 36 hrs odd and then fine. It wasn't one of those things where it drags on after.
I was just by then insanely hungry and thirsty pretty quickly and probably would have disemboweled any stopping me getting to the fridge with my glass of chilled water and sandwich my wife kindly prepped for me.
She didn't have jack happen by the way. Pommy bitch! . Just looked at me the whole time sliding between pity and "You bloody wimp". She made some funny jokes about it to cheer me up though
@alwyn are you Bruce Russell in a closed orbit.
Since I haven't the faintest idea who this friend of yours(?) named Bruce Russell is I couldn't possibly comment.
alwyn Mr Russell is a talking head along with Hoskings,the grave yard shift and sometimes spins old day music for those types that yearn for the old times.
Just so the 'sillies' can't make up any theories or rave on about the PM not attending 1.00pm briefings, MOH has announced that the weekend's updates will be via its mailouts/website.
Probably so everyone who can be, is working on the Vaxathon.
I wonder what the anti PM/Govt talking points will be in the coming week?
One Nat supporter on the board where the talking points about the PM & attendance were also raised around the same time as Alwyn's, was moved to write that she did not know which was worse, having to combat Covid misinformation, or political weirdness about who fronts the 1.00pm briefings made as if it was relevant to Covid/ Health/vaccinations.
One of the weird things of the age. Ardern is on the covid conferences a lot and people complain. Apparently she's turning the saga into a PR exercise.
And she comes on and she's all waffle and talking to us as if we're kids we’re told.
Then she's not there and people wet their nappies. What the hell is that all about?
It's the political equivalent of searching through the TV channels to find the sex and violence so they can complain about all the sex and violence on TV … with a little too much enthusiasm.
My thought is that is simply projection from the critic's own worldview. So when say; Collins, claims that Ardern is milking 1pm briefings for favorable publicity, what she really means is that if she was in Ardern's position, that's what she'd do herself.
Sometimes lies tell you more than truths – at least about the person speaking.
I actually think the govt did a good job with the initial shutdowns and it saved us some grief last year, though at the same time the roll out of the vaccine and the slowness nearly cancels it out in shitty work.
I have continued to have mixed feelings about the whole elimination thing.
Probably just me
Can't help feeling it was an extremely expensive and damaging way to delay the inevitable for the entire country. god knows how many small businesses are going to go bust, (don't get me started on why butchers, hair dressers, etc etc can't, eating in outside areas are blocked).
I also noticed in amongst medical and education being compulsarirally vaccinated. Where is the prostitutes? I kind of think they shoud kind of be mentioned.
On the other hand it did give us time to build up a, if not ideal, decent vaxed number
Sorry about the ranting ramble there. Was just thinking about stuff, feel free to ignore
See, without modern medicine I probably would have died years ago. Even today my doctor and I play a little game where I live the life I like and he prescribes the best cocktail of meds that will keep me alive a bit longer.
Why is this relevant? Because life is about delaying the inevitable.
If everything goes tits up and we have 7k, 14k, 80k covid deaths, that's still a couple of years more life than those folks would have had under the "live with it in March 2020" crowd.
Fuck businesses. We're talking about actual life, not livelihoods.
So you have given up on the whole trying to reduce poverty thing?
If businesses go under, the owner goes under, and alll the owners workers lose their jobs.
When the owner loses their job they may not be able to pay their mortgage and they lose their house. They may have more than one and are renting one or two. They lose aa well. The bank takes them and says forced sell. Families renting them are kicked out and have no where to live.
The said owners laid off workers have now got no wage so they can't pay their mortgage. The bank takes their house and they have no where to live.
Depending on their wage they may be renting out a flat. The bank takes this also and sells it and the renters are forced to move out with no where to live, because there is nothing cheap enough in the covid bordered area, so they hang out in a car.
Or the only place the workers can find is some shit hole in no where to rent on the dole. So they have to move their kids to that place and their kids have to go to a new school and no longer can see their friends.
But as you say 10s of thousands of people will probably go through this, but at least we kept out an inevitable get here disease for a few months
If businesses need people to die in order to stay in existence, we're doing it the wrong way around.
Maybe the tourism industry has to go the way of the asbestos industry. Maybe not. But killing people so some small businesses can continue operating without adapting is as callous as it is stupid.
Fixed it for you.
How exactly are you killing people if they are vaxed?
Just out of interest you do know 650 odd people die from car accidents and fku a year?
How many people are YOU willing to let die because their cancer fiscreening/treatment and heart surgeries are being delayed by weeks because of the chance their might be an onslaught of covid people?
Or are they not as important as people who chose not to be vaccinated, and have underlying health conditions?
Are you aware that governments and health planners and modellers actually took into consideration things like delayed health care, and came to understand that more people would die and become disabled if covid was left to run free?
It's not a chance of an onslaught of covid. That's a bizarre statement given what's happened in so many other countries in teh world in the past 18 months. Why would NZ be any different?
And you appear to be suggesting that we have a bunch of people die from covid in addition to those road and flu deaths. Besides, we do what we can to prevent those deaths, it's not like we go, oh can't spend money on making roads safer.
Yes, but we don't destroy small businesses like butchers, hairdressers, and thousands the hospitality industry when they could be open, as they are no different from going to the pub, dentist or doctor because a car might hit a power pole
car accidents aren't infectious diseases. Really not following your argument here. We do a lot to prevent road deaths, it's not really anything to do with small businesses other than pubs etc, and we do prevention work there too.
We also ban drinking and driving, mandate people wear seatbelts, and have a speed limit.
"We also ban drinking and driving, mandate people wear seatbelts, and have a speed limit."
Not sure how banning drink drivers relates to stopping small business open, when others with even more danger can.
Again. Why are prostitutes/sex workers not named with education and medical as have to be vaxed?
Edit: Actually why are they not told they can’t operate. They are a legitimate business now.
"How exactly are you killing people if they are vaxed?"
Death rate is lower in vaxxed people, not non-existent.
Yeah I know. Looked after I posted that sorry.
It is actually not reassuringly low really, vut a shedload better than not being vaxxed.
Kind of like playing russian roullette.
100 shooter pistol.
You get 5 bullets in it if just sit around. Or 1 if you ram this needle in your arm.
Sorry. Sick analogy
Edit: Bad math.
1000 bullet gun
50 bullets sit around
5 get wounded and have to go to hospital
1/2ish bullet if you jab this needle in arm twice
Probably bad math. Bit late and just about to go to bed
You have this the wrong way round – delays for the possibility of covid is nothing like the massive demand on hospitals due to actual covid when a 'live with it' strategy was used. For example, from the British Medical Journal:
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n339
With all due respect. You can't just pluck that from the UK from 8 months ago when piss all people were vaccinated (I think they are still sitting on less than 75% first vaccunation even now) and use it as a model for how it will play out here.
are you suggesting that the modelling for NZ, once we are at 90% vax rate is wrong or can't be trusted?
Putting aside I wouldn't trust that Hendy dudes (or whatever his name is) not at all.
I was just pointing out the linmiravox posted with the quote was from Feb when piss all people in the UK were vaccinated.
I wouldn't trust that Hendy dudes, not at all.
Of course not – a professional actually competent to model outbreaks? He debunks all your reckons without breaking a sweat.
Even at a 95/95/95 assumption (95% vaxxed, 95% no infection in vaxxed, 95% no hospitalisation of infected vaxxed person), that leaves:
750k 0-12yo to spread or get the disease
250k 12+ who are unvaccinated
In addition to those million people, there are another 200k vaxxed people who do not have full protection.
So about a fifth of our population will still be vulnerable to delta. With a vulnerable group that large, what do you think the transmission numbers will be?
The vast vast vast vast vaster daylight vast ratio of (Not sure about babies) under 12s wouldn't even know they had it, let alone take long to lose it
Well, assuming even none of them actually get symptoms, there are almost half a million people they can give it to (after trading it to each other at school).
Sorry. Reply button gone
Yeah, but it is just going to happen. As I said earlier. It is a delay to the inevitable. Holding a crucifix up to stop an avalanche hitting you.
I mean a kid under 12 gets it and they inevitably will and spread it, it ain't like you can stop them play fighting, cuddling, with each other, or make them keep masks on. It spreads exponentially.
It is what it is
I would pity parents who tried to though. While also I think I would find it funny watching them try to 🙂
Just need to make sure enough people are vaccinated as possible. And I won't bring up lack of ICU prep, but will probably do on another day
No, it'll never happen. Because that was 95/95/95.
At 90/95/95, that's ~750k kids to spread it, ~430k unvaxxed >=12yo, and ~190k vaxxed but it didn't take.
The longer we put it off, the higher the vax number is and the fewer unvaxxed adults are out there – even if you think child covid won't really happen (it does, but that's another argument).
Sure, ICU beds are an issue, and general health equity, and shit housing (especially emergency housing for poor people). These are the systemic issues over decades that have sown what we reap.
But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, they aren't reasons to just let covid run free as soon as possible. The way to victory here is constant delaying. Cunctator-stylez.
"You know what's more tough? Actually dying."
Currently in NZ we have had 2 die and a fairly high inoculation rate and climbing now, so please don't quote shit unvaccinated countries from months ago
"Saying everything should open up"
That isn't what I said but feel free to quote me saying it.
I said places like butchers and hairdressers. Because you know. How dumb arse it I can't get cheap steaks wrapped in paper from a dude in a butcher only he touched with plastic gloves, while then walk to a super market and fart around with a trolley 20 people have used.
And again why are sex workers not closed and forced to vax as it is apparently a ligitamate businesses from labour.
It can't be hard. They contact them through their tax returns and GST claims to vonfirm it
Well, it's not like you've presented any others. You don't like my numbers, you don't like Hendy's numbers, how many people do you think will die when we go to level 2 permanently? To keep hairdressers and independent butcheries open so you can have a nice steak?
And going all Palpatine with "it is inevitable" ignores the fact that the longer we wait, the higher our vax level. Where do you think diminishing returns come in? When half a million 12+ are unvaxxed? 750k? 250k? You reject Hendy's numbers, fair enough. Whose numbers do you figure are reasonable? As you say, from a couple thousand cases in a largely vaxxed population we've had two dead and currently 617 active cases and 26 in hospital.
How many cases will occur to make you put up with a supermarket steak (and they should have sanitising wipes for the trolley, complain if they don't)?
Are the brothels still open? How does one "close" an itinerant sex worker? If indeed those rumours are true, rather than just dodgy assumptions.
Actually, the businesses with regular accounts probably qualify for the wage relief. In lieu of providing other relief. And, like hairdressing, I suspect that the business value is in the skills and practitioner reputation rather than capital investment, so would be easier to start up again if things go tits-up.
I didn't mean child covid won't happen. I meant as they play together the vast vast vast majority will be fine while then giving it to adults who may not be.
Now parks are open. it is just going to happen.
Agree health lack of infrestucture is a decades old issue and there are two certain PM's who spent 18 years between them in charge who basically fucked it. Same with housing, but another discussion.
"But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, "
They are dying and looking at having to tell their staff they are sacked. How hard is this to get?
The wage subsidy cover exactly that. Not rent. Power. GST. Insurance. ACC. Food spoilage and throwing away because the govt demands we have to wait till a certain time on a monday afternoon to say any actual shit and they have to be prepared at any time to try to open.
And even that has a limit of 600 bucks a week I think and is taxed, so the small business owner has to top that up so their staff can pay shit like their mortgage when they are normally on about 2 k a week And you have to justify it every 2 weeks
I know Labour don't get it as they think all businesses are the size of Microsoft as and all the business owners are evil, none have had to run one, but they need to to start sourcing advice from the business community rather than tight arsed, probably still living with mum stats dude from Wellington.
No they're not dying. They're looking at losing money and winding up their business.
I'm involved with a peekaboo (lol pcbu in the osh parlance) that is in the shit right now. We will probably be able to keep operating, but yeah, it's tough.
You know what's more tough? Actually dying.
Saying everything should open up and disease should walk the land so I can keep my business profitable would be almost sociopathic. But there's this affliction amongst many SMEs where their owner-operators care more about their bottom line than literally the lives of other people.
So yeah, we can still minimise the spread until as many people are vaccinated who can be. Some kids in parks might spread it around a bit more than everyone adhering to L4 standards, but full classrooms definitely will. Same with malls.
I never aid Auckland should go to level 2. It is fairly obvious it won't for a while.
I just said small businesses like butchers and hairdressers etc etc should be allowed to open.
I have tried to be diplomatic but frankly I am beginning to run out of patience, The govts qualification for who can open and can't with risk at level 3 in Auckland is fucking shit.
OK Let me put it this way as the other isn;t working. Why can't butchers be open with proper shop access?
Some possibilities come to mind:
And you never answered why sex workers don't have to be vaccinated and why they are open when butchers aren't
Edit: And please don’t say anonymity given they would have done the GST and tax things.
I'm pretty sure that sex workers shouldn't actually be operating under L3, so not sure what power a vaccine mandate would hold over the ones currently operating.
But also I'm not sure all of them operate as registered businesses with appropriate ACC levy registration (which would probably be slightly more accurate than companies or gst documentation – for the ones that do their full paperwork).
I mean, stunning idea for people in the privileged classes I know, but not all financial transactions or operations are duly reported to the government.
I was being a bit tongue and check there to be fair.
I just saw the two head up north and was wondering if/how they could claim it.
They are probably in the in the shit business group.
But then it has always slightly annoyed by they are now being treated as a proper job they never have to pay tax.
(legitamate brothel establishments excluded)
And I know I have a weird sense of humour. (Dusclaimer)
But I was wondering if they were covered now by ACC work wise if they got injured by using props in their workplace
Edit: Kind of cut hand while clients girls school skirt belt swished too much. He was ok, type thing.
ACC: “Sweet as. We will pay this for the hand therapist”
oh, they wouldn't be the only trades offering cheaper jobs for cash payments.
Almost certainly not. But then ACC would have probably written off their RSI as a pre-existing injury anyway lol
Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy. The most likely scenario for delays in non-covid treatment, is covid itself, not some strategy of bed and appointment blocking 'just in case' (in fact NZ did clear space for the worst happening but we never had to implement that plan in any major way).
We can't use NZ as an example of what happens when we open up now – because it the covid pandemic didn't happen, we're not starting with a covid-induced backlog. We'll find out more in our vaccinated future shortly.
As weka suggests, they plan for this stuff. That's the question – do you trust the planning or not?
Depends who is doing the planning. I certainly don't trust that hendy dude's who was basically just given millions bt labour with no proper best of practice on who to use.
"Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy."
This is a fair point.
I did say it was a rambling rant, but I should have been more clear in the difference status of countries situations vax verse infection wise, sorry.
I am also going to hold you to that thousands estimate of deaths
How? That's what would have happened if the business uber alles crowd had gotten their way a year and a half ago. Look at… damned near every other nation on the planet.
And the impact on other medical care is a valid, quantifiable question to ask (with reasonable data and reporting) – but it's a lot different to removing disease controls so we can preserve the cashflows of "just cutz" or "try hair".
But then you'd also be factoring in ICU occupancy during a pandemic and other outbreak-related impacts on the healthcare system, right? Right?
As for vaccination, it's a tool in the box. But it's not 100%, and some people will still die when this thing is endemic. That happens. And the predicted math of dead in that circumstances should be balanced against any dead you happen to be able to think of when you are reminded why we have these allegedly business-destroying lockdowns (although our GDP seems to suggest that a healthy population has fewer lockdowns and more economic activity than a plagueland).
But the business sector should not be a consideration in any "opening up" decision.
Now do the costs associated with hundreds of people likely not working, or working reduced hours, for months post infection.
How will this play out for the working population?
Using UK data to inform assumptions around vaccination effectiveness at stopping infections and lowering the likelihood of hospitalisation if infected, we have projected numbers of cases, hospitalisations, ICU and ‘long COVID’
for Australian workers consistent with the Doherty modelling.
In summary, our projections result in just over 100,000 COVID-19 infections in workers leading to around 10,000 hospitalisations, of which 700 are admitted to ICU. Up to (or perhaps even exceeding) 7,000 long COVID cases may develop who are fully off work, and twice as many again will still be on reduced work, 7 months later.
Vaccination changes the risk of infection and hospitalisation significantly. 42,000 COVID-19 cases are projected from the vaccinated workforce of 7.2 million workers. 64,000 COVID-19 cases are projected to come from unvaccinated workers (1.8 million workers).
https://www.finity.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/WC_COVID-19_dfinitive_Oct_2021.pdf
Andrew little said on the radio tonight that 95% of infections will not have to go to hospital and can be looked after with visits to home for food etc.
Has he not read you 10% hospitalisation modelling?
Also. You can't model long covid. They are still not sure what it is.
long covid rates are estimated to be between 10% and something like 30%. That rate should be lower in fully vaccinated people, but, we don't know yet how that will play out, and we don't know if new variants will be worse.
Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
Hospitalisations aside, anywhere between an estimated 25% and 80% of infected patients will be saddled with one or more long-term symptom/s. Should those numbers come to pass, good luck accessing anything resembling timely medical care in a health system that's near on it's knees today.
5%. 10%. It's still a significant number when we aren't doing lockdowns for each and every community case.
Yeah, fair point.
I think one of the things on our side. (Well apart from Auckland maybe. Sorry guys!), is the fact we have a pretty impressive amount of space to people ratio outside the big cities.
We may end up with Omega Man like cities and loads of farmers turning them into dairy farms. Moaning that Aucklanders only left them one bridge to get them to the milking sheds.
(Sorry. That was a bad joke)
Apparently rural areas in the US are getting hit hard now – not just because of maga vax hesitancy.
Sure, one can spend all one's time on the farm, but one eventually goes into towd – the supply store, the bar, the church, the parts store, the vet supply store. And they see everyone in the area who eventually comes into town. The node with many edges comes into play again.
And then the farmers die in greater number because they're further from help.
It ain't the endtimes, but fuck it's depressing.
Hairdressers have been going gangbusters around lockdown restrictions, it's not something most people can generally do themselves, & you seem to not have noticed that butcher shops are probably at 10% of the numbers they once were at but not due to covid or any restrictions. They started to become a thing of the past due to supermarkets. Other businesses have modified how they do things in a meaningful way since the 2020 lockdown – local garage ie operates 4 days a week now not 5 with no reduction in anyone's wages or the volume of service they provide. They've condensed it to less down time over the week. There are valuable things to learn from operating more effectively, when done well it also benefits retail along the line as well
Virus
Threatening our very existence
With grave and deadly persistence;
Get the vaccine today
There’s no other way –
Upon this there is widespread insistence.
Nearly; AFdeV, but something is off with the second line of your limerick. I think it needs another syllable in the second triplet (or at least a comma) eg With grave and most deadly persistance. Also There's & there is, would work better swapped between the fourth and fifth lines (or maybe On instead of Upon). Plus it's not obscene at all! Though I guess that could be implied in the threatened existence.
Who's a clever killing machine?
https://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/1447850751787773956
Ghost Robotics and SWORD International have teamed up to create a rifle-toting "robot dog." Called the Special Purpose Unmanned Rifle, or SPUR, the system adds a 6.5mm Creedmoor rifle from SWORD to one of Ghost Robotics' quadrupedal unmanned ground vehicles, or Q-UGVs.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42717/robot-dogs-can-now-have-6-5mm-assault-rifles-mounted-on-their-backs
Can it shoot Pfizer darts?
Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
What’s the public supposed to do with this? IT expert says the vax app has medium security flaws, MoH IT dude says trust us it’s safe.
https://twitter.com/radionz/status/1448404427841228803?s=21