Why? Their chances of being in government, let alone any one of them becoming a cabinet minister are shot. It’s looking more and more like the best outcome the left can hope for this election is a Lab/NZF government. We need to make Labour as strong as possible for that eventuality.
Uh, if they get into parliament, they will be needed in government.
Lab/NZF can only get to 61/62 by themselves if the greens aren’t there so they get more seats from the reallocation of the greens votes.
If the Greens are in, they will be needed by Labour to get to a majority. I doubt that the Greens will be in any way magnanimous about Labour trying to form a minority government with NZ first and trying to get the Greens to give them confidence and supply from outside a coalition.
Just noting that the Green Party went to 12 or 15% when Metiria spoke of welfare. Hold that in your mind if you’re bothering to read this comment.
The media and pundits bayed for blood and the Greens then dropped in the polls (Gower’s ‘never seen before poll’ that he felt compelled to conduct – remember that?)
That initial dip is to be expected when negative onslaughts are unleashed off the back of you having basically put a bomb under a comfortable status quo. But you weather them. You keep going. And the reaction to the manufactured negativity comes and resultant rebound comes too.
But instead, the Green Party didn’t just come off the boil, it came off the front foot, back peddled and sat down. They lost momentum and they lost headlines, but worst of all, they left a lot of very negative perceptions hanging in the air.
There’s no nice way to say this. They allowed the negative shit coming from msm and pundits to shape their actions, and a consequence of those defensive actions was the wave of bullshit coming from msm was suddenly unopposed and able to shape and possibly set the perceptions of many people.
And just to help it all along, they said ‘sorry’.
Whatever Shaw meant by apologising is irrelevant. He was talking to NZ and many have simply heard it as an apology for giving a platform to Metiria (a “lying Maori bitch” as far as much of the msm and punditry was/is concerned, in case you missed that from their “oh so subtle” coverage).
So now the Green Party’s in trouble.
And it’s in trouble primarily because it listened first and foremost to what media was saying and reacted to media reporting on its own impacts on general perceptions – instead of continuing to simply and diligently stand its ground and say what it had to say.
They’ll be in government. But they’ve ceded all the high ground they occupied, and all the running they had, and so won’t be the presence in government that they really ought to be and that we (NZ in general) really need them to be.
And yes. I want everything I’ve written in this comment to be absolutely and completely wrong.
The Greens went to 12 or 15% when they crapped all over the MOU and went after Labour’s voters because they thought that Labour was tanking. They (like the rest of us) never imagined that Labour was even capable of or contemplating the dramatic upheaval that saw Little resign and Ardern installed as leader. They miscalculated and now they’ve made their bed (as my mother would say) and they must lie in it.
Your right OAB no party ‘owns’ voters. But some (most?) voters do lend political parties their allegiance. And as we’ve seen in the last 2 weeks those bonds can be pretty strong.
But all this bickering is based entirely on supposing what actions caused or mitigated which gain or loss, and which voters migrated from party A to party B.
All we know is that Labour is on a roll, National are in gradual decline, NZ1 is levelling and the Greens have taken a big, but recoverable, hit.
Don’t go there. Greens spoke for the folk Labour have consigned to poverty, and Labour chose Blairism with the enthusiastic support of the media plague rats, instead of following the Corbynite lead.
Labour should have led on this issue, but unfortunately they’re the same old sellouts, chalking up victories on gender issues instead of addressing poverty and injustice.
The polls are not to be trusted – they’re faked to license the media narrative that the failed austerity policies of the last two governments are not to be questioned.
Stuart Munro
Stop being so clear sighted and factual – it’s not what is good to hear and
should only be whispered behind your hands at midnight in a dark place,
while you are wearing funereal black.
So, the polls were to be trusted when they showed the Greens at record highs, but they’re not to be trusted anymore..?
The polls are not faked. We might not like them all the time, they my each have slightly different outcomes because of slightly different methodologies, and this far out they’re certainly not predictive (a lot can happen in 5 weeks), but they’re not faked. Saying that is juvenile and paranoid.
I think the Greens will bounce back. They won’t bounce as high as they did when Labour was low, but I doubt they’ll stay this low. I do disagree with Bill (above) about why they’ve had such a tough time, though. Metiria’s announcement was always a risky strategy – the media were always going to go digging – it’s what they do. It looks like it wasn’t fully thought through. If it hadn’t been rushed, then they would have made sure they talked to people like ex flatmates, sat down and raked through her past with her for other revelations that could be distracting or undermining, and – most importantly – really made a team decision, with everyone committed to it, rather than having some caucus members uncomfortable and aggrieved. If they’d gone through a thorough process before going public, they would have either:
1) decided not to go public with the personal story, or
2) kept control of the story and kept the focus on the issues, knowing that there were no more layers to unpeel and that they could stick it out as a team.
Oh really. Remember Gower’s poll – 75% landline and 25% online – not because that’s a credible measure of anything, but because it gave him the numbers to back his fatuous story. It didn’t get much attention because RNZ got Metiria’s scalp, not Gower, but Gower’s whole statistical edifice was poppycock. That’s how debased our media are.
You have to use statistical sampling critically to generate anything other than noise – but current pollsters have found that particular results are much more palatable than the vagaries of real sampling. These are easy to generate, much easier than getting truly representative data.
Tell me that Gower or Hosking or Joyce are too rigorous to deliberately use compromised data – I could use a laugh.
The same kind of polling that YouGov showed to be largely fallacious.
Small samples, selection bias, leading questions – it really isn’t difficult to not get real results.
These fraudulent results can then be used to justify the vigorous deployment of MSM propaganda, which, unless it is debunked will gradually erode real support and create a false consensus around an issue.
The YouGov polls were not a trivial element of Corbyn’s revival of Labour – they showed the pundits to be wrong and even forced the BBC to step away from their biased anti-Corbyn stance.
A reputable poll would need at least 2000 respondents – and pay some attention to age and income and geographical distribution to ensure the result was meaningful.
Colmar Brunton do pay attention to those issues, Stuart, and the question is the same each time (“If an election was held tomorrow…?”). Plus, the sample number reflects the size of NZ’s population. I’m not a statistician (are you?), but I doubt that they’re lying about the margin of error.
I hope and believe that the Greens will bounce back, but that doesn’t make this poll faked or deliberately biased.
The easiest litmus test for fake polls is whether they elide the undecided and won’t say groups to create the false impression that National enjoys support in the 40s. Because of the substantial undecided/won’t say fraction, Gnat support is in the 30s. But that makes them look like what they are – a conservative rump that only survive through intensive media life support. It’s time to pull that plug.
As for Colmar Brunton – polls of 750-1000 aren’t worth much more than horoscopes. YouGov used 40 000 +.
It didn’t help that one of the first things Ardern dis as leader was distance herself from Turei, a few hours after Gower said she should say she wouldn’t have Turei as a minister. Ardern did not need to do that.
That and a couple of other things signalled to me, and probably a few others, that team Ardern would prefer NZ Furst as an ally rather than the GP. If that happens, the NZ left will be set back a couple of decades, along with those on the lowest incomes, and beneficiaries.
It should be clear to left wingers what they should do – vote, and vote to keep the NZ left alive in parliamentary politics.
She absolutely did need to do that Carolyn-nth. Turei’s position was deteriorating by the hour and Ardern needed a bit of space to get Labour back on an even keel.
So, do you really think a new government could appoint someone as a Minister who would still at that time be under active investigation by a government department to assess the extent of fraud? How would you react if a National government did that?
If Turei had thought things through more, she would have worked things out with MSD before going public, and there could have been a settlement in place. She didn’t. And yes, I know she needed the money at the time, but she’s got plenty of cash now and she was running a political campaign, hoping to become Minister of the department that would be investigating her.
Ardern didn’t flinch – she took a tough decision. She also gave Turei the chance to make her own decision and announcement.
Turei and the Greens championed an important cause and the choice to use her own story added authenticity, but it also had risks and negatives attached and you can’t blame people who were in no way involved in the decision to use that strategy for the outcomes of that.
Carolyn and Stuart,
Jacinda did what she had to do if she wants to be PM. Show she had standards and could make tough decisions.
The public has seen that and it has paid dividends. If you want proof ask JK. Ex PMs like Bolger, Clark and Key, all of whom won three elections, know at a very intimate level just what is required to be a successful PM. Making tough decisions on instinct without a lot of endless reflection is one of the essential attributes. I have seen enough of each of them, especially Bolger and Key since I was in the same party, of how they actually make such decisions.
My sense of Ardern both from interacting with her in Parliament and also since (PACDAC) is that she instantly knew Meritia, as the issue unraveled, could not be in Cabinet.
Wayne – you are so utterly corrupt your opinion is worthless.
John Key is the worst Prime Minister New Zealand has ever had – one does not achieve the most expensive housing, the worst homelessness, and the highest suicide rates in the OECD without being the worst government in the OECD.
That’s what you were – for heaven’s sake take some responsibility!
And a cynical person would say that that’s exactly the kind of doubt that he wants to sow in our minds… Yes, really, that nice Mr Key – it’s just possible that he’s got his own motivations for his public statements.
Piss off, adam. If you see the Labour Party as hard right then your judgement is so skewed as to be worthless.
I’m a secondary school teacher and I have a lifetime of volunteering in fair trade groups, unions, social support groups, international charities and environmental groups, women’s groups, public education lobby groups… if that’s your view of hard Right then that says more about you than me.
@ Adam – no he’s not. A lot of Labour supporters have managed not to get too badly burnt by their party’s actions. They are good people and expect the best of their party, as I used to. Snuggling up to decaying sacs of flesh like Gower will damage Labour in the long term however, and do little to alleviate the distress of those impoverished by the failures of neo-liberalism.
So red-blooded and I’ve asked this from you before, where is the socialist economic policy from the labour party?
You know, left wing economic policy.
None, well bugger me – what else is new.
You lot have a coup, go up in the polls and then lord it over the rest of the left.
So let me rephrase my argument, red-blooded is just another authoritarian labour party hack. Who like everyone else in that party struggles to work with others, Astrturfs, and would rather loss an election (the last one does come to mind) rather than share power with a left wing party.
Mind you, in historical context. The liberal party in NZ was very much the same. I’m sure people who were the wet’s in there day, were very much the same.
My understanding is that trends tend not to show up til at least several weeks after an event. James Shaw made that “not so great together” speech at the relaunch on Sunday 13 Aug. This latest released poll result was conducted from 12-16 Aug,
Trends take more than one poll to show them – that’s what makes them trends. A single poll can certainly show a reaction to a major event or series of events, though. Again, people here were perfectly happy to interpret the poll that put the Greens so high after their conference as a reaction to Metiria’s speech…
I usually dont make much comment on polls. I tend to comment more on the narratives people derive from them – often the MSM tend to make very slanted headlines.
In my comment at 8.04pm above, I was responding to Bill’s comment in which cited some words spoken by James Shaw. As those words were in James Shaw’s speech at the GP relaunch Sunday pm, they were spoken a day and a half into the Colmar Brunton polling period – which was 12-16 August. So I doubt that speech would be the main cause of the poll drop for the GP.
My understanding is that poll watchers say it takes a few weeks for any single event to show in a poll, as well as for a change in trends. But I could be wrong.
I don’t recall ever making a comment about that 15% GP poll (on or offline).
I don’t think I said that you had commented about that 15%poll, CN. I hadn’t checked back, so I just said “people”. For an example, look at Bill’s comment (3.4.2.2). There was a lot of rejoicing on this site about that poll and no talk then about time delays – a direct link was made between the conference speech and the lift in the poll. I just think we have to be consistent.
And, Bill, the media were the ones who delivered that speech of Metiria’s to the wider public. Somehow, that part of things was OK but not the follow-up work..?
The media were always going to dig and look for another angle on the story – that’s what they do. Turei knew this – she’s been a politician long enough to know how it works. Sorry, but while I admired the message, I still think there was some rushed and/or shoddy thinking and a lack of prep with other interested parties (including the Greens’ caucus).
If Shaw’s words are out of kilter with the time line then fine. The fact still remains that the Green Party went up off the back of Metiria launching the welfare policy.
And then msm set to business.
And unlike other examples I can think of, the Greens didn’t (or didn’t manage to) hold their ground against negative msm messaging.
Dunno how “intelligent” you’d have to be, but helping the Greens is a good idea for leftists.
I’d certainly be tempted to vote Green to help them over the line.
As it is, I reckon that this is the low point and they’ll be in Parliament in October.
The important bit from this poll is National down 3%. Might be statistacl error, but when you’re that close to the margin the odds are that it’s something to look at.
Don’t be daft. There’s been a lot happening in politics in recent weeks and we’re building up to an election – it’s hardly surprising that a poll’s been conducted.
When the poll that showed the Greens so high was published, was that “on purpose”, too? If so, whose purpose?
Indeed. Apart from the timing of the leadership change (Trudeau had a year and a bit as Opposition Leader before the elections) the parallels are striking.
Greens are out for 2017
They have pursued devisive short term campaiging for too long. A spell out of parliement *may* bring them to their senses. I hope so !
At this point in the electoral cycle, they tend to overstate National by about 4% in my opinion. They also understate the minor parties. Their Labour value is bounces around a bit.
I think that they have some weird population that they sample from. I’d imagine that it is like getting the Auckland sample exclusively from the North Shore or Epsom.
I think I heard the Colmar Brunton guy say on RNZ this morning that they still don’t ring cellphones. They still just ring landlines but correct for age bands and other factors.
Also the TV1 report on the Colmar Brunton poll said that “undecided votes had fallen by 7%” but they didn’t say from what to what.
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
What are you talking about? The mess these guys are creating will be much more difficult to retrieve in three years time. Social issues will worsen. Infrastructure issues will worsen, the list goes on.
Can’t really believe you could be that callous toward the vulnerable in this country that you’d just shrug and say, ‘oh well, next time’.
That’s always been a distinct possibility. If anything though, this poll lessens the likelihood of that outcome since Winston won’t have to deal with the Greens.
Hopefully Swordfish will be along soon with the stats. But I seem to recall that the last Colmar-Brunton before the 2014 election slightly overstated National, understated the Greens a bit and had Labour about right?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
The Nats will still use that Dirty Politics worm even if they are turfed out of office next month but their war chest will diminish and their ability to poll will also.
I think they can be both an environment party and a social justice party but they need to think hard about their delivery. In the last month they have screwed up their social justice policy and Labour is getting all the press on the environment. Even the Nats farted about an electric car for the government fleet when the Greens were preoccupied.
The Greens’ “preoccupation” was somewhat engineered by hysterical media.
Fortunately, we have weeks to go. But it strikes me as a funny pattern. Last election the most left-wing party was Te Mana. Slaughtered by the media because they unwisely hooked up with KDC..
This time the Greens are the most left-wing party. History repeating itself?
Greens must play very carefully from now on.
yep. The mainstream media like a centrist Labour-led government if they don’t have a National-led one. They tend to demonise people and parties solidly left.
So what are you questioning here, sweetie pie?
1) Hone decided to take the money. Tick.
2) Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t… And don’t blame the media – Mana had plenty of money to get their message out, it just didn’t ring true.
Hone is incredibly self-serving. Last time, he took the money and thought he could buy his way back into parliament. This time, he’s hooked up again with the Māori Party, despite supposedly seeing them as sell-outs for going with the Nats. Plus, he’s been telling lies about Willy Jackson (saying he supports people voting for Hone over Kelvin Davis – something Jackson absolutely refutes) and trying to get Labour to gift him a seat.
Sue Bradford got it right when she walked away from Mana.
But that is a moronic attitude. A beats B by one vote in an electorate of thousands, and you use that thin pretext to condemn the guy who lost by one vote as utterly useless.
Grow up, simpleton.
What’s the received wisdom on time between an event and how it shows up in voter patterns? I thought it was a couple of weeks but is it different during an election when interest is higher?
@ weka
In terms of major policy planks, it used to be said that it took two months to be disseminated and assimilated by the majority of punters. But when you have the kind of seismic political changes we have seen these past few weeks, I’m picking its around two weeks before the full impact is felt.
If I’m right, the Greens have bottomed out and should be on the rise again by the end of this week. 🙂
He started the sentence without knowing how he was going to finish it – scary feeling for anyone but with someone as innately dull and authoritarian as Bill it can’t end well.
It doesn’t have any to do with policy at the moment though does it? It’s all about personality at the moment, and 1 person’s personality at that. This poll won’t even have captured her savvy, assured handling of the unhinged attack form Julie Bishop which even had Mark Richardson (yes him!) whispering on The Project last night that she looked pretty prime ministerial.
Some of the Green MPs are doing an AMA on reddit this evening.
Gareth Hughes,
Thanks for the question – yes, of course we weren’t happy about the poll tonight but also not surprised we dropped. As James has said the last few weeks we haven’t been that great and we haven’t been that together. We care deeply about our issues and we are going to work hard to turn this around. We’ve reset our campaign, refocused our priorities to clean rivers, ending poverty and tackling climate change and we’re going to give this campaign everything we have. We’re going to be telling people with so many important issues facing our country we need Greens in Parliament and Greens in the next progressive Government.
Kia ora koutou – I’m sure everyone would like to know how you plan build the party back after today’s poll. I appreciate it’s only one poll but to be so low for the first time in so long has to ring some alarm bells.
How will you rebound and what’s the plan for the future of the leadership, in particular?
________
[–]GarethMPGareth Hughes MP – Verified 5 points 16 minutes ago
Thanks for the question – I answered it above in the thread and yes, it is one poll but we are taking it seriously. I can give you one example. In previous elections we have only directly contacted a small number of voters, we have some pretty ambitious contact targets that we are on track to achieve with most of the campaign gone. We have re-jigged our leadership team and have Marama Davison leading on ending poverty, Julie Anne-Genter on tackling climate change and Eugenie Sage on cleaning up our rivers. We also have record membership, donations and volunteers so know our fundamentals are strong. We are in the campaign of our lifetimes. On leadership, we will elect a new female co-leader July next year (that’s the benefit of a co-leadership model) and I think James is doing a fantastic job representing our values and vision in public. Cheers
I think National could go a bit lower yet infused, maybe 39 to 42%. Colmar Brunton does tend to overestimate their support. And Ardern could push Labour to 40. I agree though that a Lab/NZF government is rapidly becoming the most likely outcome of this election. I also think the Greens will comfortably clear the 5% threshold but be under 8%.
UMR already had National drifting down towards 42 before most of the drama unfolded. Their problem, of course, is a lack of options. Especially if Dunne loses and the Māori Party lose Waiariki.
You seem to have an unhealthy fixation on those three, and have made some rather unpleasant comments about Trevett’s appearance in the past. Is mocking a woman’s appearance okay if you don’t like her?
You’re being a bit sensitive. I do have an unhealthy fixation on them but that is because they are not neutral and I expect better from senior journalists.
Trevett’s profile picture drives me nuts because she has an oily face in it so I call her ‘the oily one’ – it’s just a fact. I also call Steven Joyce ‘cone head’ because he has a cone head – a fact again.
If election held today with only those polled oh dear that would be a shocker for the Greens. But that isn’t the case therefore it is just nothing on top of nil with some zero added in. Double down on EVERYTHING and let’s send the gnats hopping.
But to reinforce the lines I will no longer give my vote to Labour , but to the Greens. Which is a pity because for the first time in 30 odd years I was going to vote Labour, dang it !
But the name of the game is to get rid of National and Labour will need their support partners, so every little drop in the bucket is important.
It sure is ATM and I’m thinking they pegged out their claim when the Antarctic Treaty comes up for renewal around 2020 I believe? There is evidence ATM to suggest that China is also under reporting (also using its soft aid to pay off officials or provide cheap loans/ aid for projects with strings attached) the fish being caught by its own fishing trawlers only in the South West Pacific, but in the Southern Ocean as well.
Running off my iPad atm, but I’ll find the a link I post here sometime ago about Chinese over fishing/ underreporting of their catches in the South Pacific and how the likes of NZ, Oz, the Yanks and French who the bulk of Maritime Fisheries Patrols in the region are having problems in co-ord some of the maritime patrols with of small nations within the South Pacific .
Ardern should gift Wellington Central to James Shaw if the polls stay this tight. It could mean not having to put up with NZF in government. As time goes on and Labour’s vote creeps over 40% (and I think it will), National’s vote will start reducing in turn. Who needs Winston?
Labour need to grow their vote from NZF. Because as the GP recovers they will pick up Labour voters again.
Or, it’s all a nonsense anyway 😉
btw, in 2014 Robertson got nearly 20,000 votes, Shaw got 5,000. I think there are probably other electorates that the GP could do better in. Were you thinking Labour could withdraw Robertson? Hard to imagine them doing that given his seniority, and Labour’s position on standing in every seat (and L/G agreement not to do deals).
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Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
.“$10 and a target that bleeds” - Bleeding Targets for Under $10!.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.This government appears hell-bent on either scrapping life-saving legislation or reintroducing things that - frustrated critics insist - will be dangerous and likely ...
“It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet – is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
Bob Edlin writes – And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ HeraldThomas CoughlanSimeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
TL;DR:Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it: We want our country to be a ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading → ...
Ele Ludemann writes – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
What was that judge thinking?Peter Williams writes – That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop:Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
Buzz from the BeehiveThe text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary. It can be quickly analysed ...
For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
Questions need to be asked on both sides of the worldPeter Williams writes – The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop:The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
TL;DR:Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
Bob Edlin writes – The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
Every year, in the Budget, Parliament forks out money to government agencies to do certain things. And every year, as part of the annual review cycle, those agencies are meant to report on whether they have done the things Parliament gave them that money for. Agencies which consistently fail to ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – Recent events in American universities point to an underlying crisis of coherent thinking, an issue that increasingly affects the progressive left across the Western world. This of course is nothing new as anyone who can either remember or has read of the late ...
The thing about life’s little victories is that they can be followed by a defeat.Reader Darryl told me on Monday night:Test again Dave. My “head cold” last week became COVID within 24 hours, and is still with me. I hear the new variants take a bit longer to show up ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Angus Deaton on rethinking his economics IMFLocal scoop: The people behind Tamarind, the firm that left a $500m cleanup bill for taxpayers at Taranaki’s Tui oil well, are back operating in Taranaki under a different company name. Jonathan ...
Normally when we talk about accessing public transport it’s about improving how easy it is to get to, such as how easy is it to cross roads in a station/stop’s walking catchment, is it possible to cycle to safely, do bus connections work, or even if are there new routes/connections ...
Politicians are not renowned for telling the truth. Some tell us things that are verifiably not true. They offer statements that omit critical pieces of information. Gloss over risks, preferring to offer the best case scenario.Some not truths are quite small, others amusing in their transparency. There are those repeated ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
The New Zealand public voted for a change in direction at the 2023 general election and that is exactly what this coalition government has been delivering in its first 100 days. There was an immediate focus on the economy, easing the cost of living, cracking down on law and order ...
The Government has left the health system as an afterthought, announcing half-baked targets at the last minute of their 100-day plan, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
Kiwis are still waiting for their promised cost of living support after 100 days of a National Government that is taking us backwards, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
100 days of National taking NZ backwardsThe National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
The Government must commit to funding free and healthy school lunches, as thousands of people sign the petition to keep them, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti says. ...
If the Government was serious about moving families into public housing, they would build more houses so there is actually somewhere for people to go. ...
The free and healthy school lunches programme feeds our kids, helps them to learn, and saves families money – but it is at risk under this Government, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
The Government’s proposed changes to Firearms Prohibition Orders (FPO) add almost nothing new and are merely an attempt to distract from its plans to loosen gun laws, police spokesperson Ginny Andersen and justice spokesperson Dr Duncan Webb said. ...
The great Victorian era English politician Lord Macauley stood in the British House of Parliament and said, "The gallery in which the reporters sit has become a fourth estate of the realm".He understood and outlined even way back then, the significant role and influence media have in a democracy. ...
The government’s attack on Māori health this week is committing tangata-whenua to a premature death, says Te Pāti Māori. “The government have begun their onslaught on Māori health with the abolishment of the Māori Health Authority and smokefree laws in the same day” said health spokesperson and co-leader, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. ...
Today marks a tragic milestone for New Zealanders as the Coalition Government side with big tobacco to repeal the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Act 2022, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins and Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April. ...
Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand. Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships. “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland Acknowledgements and opening Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says. “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024 Acknowledgements and opening Morena, Nga Mihi Nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country. “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week. “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee. “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today. “The Amendment Paper represents ...
Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level. “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024. “Lower fruit and vege ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction. Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness. It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
Former Transport Minister and CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber Hon Simon Bridges has been appointed as the new Board Chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for a three-year term, Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced today. “Simon brings extensive experience and knowledge in transport policy and governance to the role. He will ...
Good morning all, it is a pleasure to be here as Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology. It is fantastic to see how connected and collaborative the life science and biotechnology industry is here in New Zealand. I would like to thank BioTechNZ and NZTech for the invitation to address ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says he is looking forward to the day when three key water projects in Northland are up and running, unlocking the full potential of land in the region. Mr Jones attended a community event at the site of the Otawere reservoir near Kerikeri on Friday. ...
Associate Finance Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government has agreed to restore deductibility for mortgage interest on residential investment properties. “Help is on the way for landlords and renters alike. The Government’s restoration of interest deductibility will ease pressure on rents and simplify the tax code,” says ...
Sport and Recreation Minister Chris Bishop will travel to Switzerland today to attend an Executive Committee meeting and Symposium of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). Mr Bishop will then travel on to London where he will attend a series of meetings in his capacity as Infrastructure Minister. “New Zealanders believe ...
This year’s Pacific Language Weeks celebrate regional unity and the contribution of Pacific communities to New Zealand culture, says Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti. Dr Reti announced dates for the 2024 Pacific Language Weeks during a visit to the Pasifika festival in Auckland today and says there’s so ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Tod Wright and Hien Nguyen, Fiscal incidence in New Zealand: The effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes in tax year 2018/19 . Analyses of the distributional impact of taxation and government ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Cory Davis, Boston Hart and Benjamin Stubbing, Household cost-of-living impacts from the Emissions Trading Scheme and using transfers to mitigate regressive outcomes . This Analytical Note ...
A coalition of public transport and climate organisations, united as ‘Transport for All’, is actively opposing the government’s transport proposals. The draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) includes plans for higher fares for public transport, ...
Greater Wellington is inviting feedback on proposed changes to its Revenue and Financing Policy. The Revenue and Financing Policy covers the Council’s various sources of funding, and how the cost of services is shared across the region. This includes ...
Labour has conceded it could have done more to deal with disruptive state housing tenants while in government but says the current coalition is going too far. ...
The band has asked their record label to issue a cease and desist to stop the NZ First leader using their 1997 hit to support his ‘misguided political views’. “I get knocked down, but I get up again,” blared through the speakers on Sunday as Winston Peters took the stage ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Food rationing is underway in remote areas in Papua New Guinea’s Highlands following torrential rain and flash flooding. More than 20 people have been reported dead in Chimbu Province. In nearby Enga Province, the centre of last month’s massacre, a 15-year-old boy has been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer, Research School of Management, Australian National University After months of debate and intrigue, the AFL’s 19th and newest team, the Tasmania Devils, finally launched its jumper, logo and colours in Devonport this week. The Devils will wear green, ...
Brannavan Gnanalingam reviews the debut novel by Saraid de Silva.One of the most baffling things for children who move to a new country is what their parents’ (or grandparents’) lives were like prior to moving – for kids in particular, they’re too busy trying to fit in in their ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Associate Professor in Cinema Studies, RMIT University Narelle Portanier/Binge “If you don’t know who your mob are, you don’t know who you are,” Detective Andrea “Andie” Whitford (played by Leah Purcell) is told early into the new crime ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elise Klein, Associate professor, Australian National University It’s commonly accepted that women do the vast majority of caregiving in Australian society. But less appreciated is that Indigenous women do larger amounts of unpaid care than any other group. Working with the Aboriginal ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a ...
Comment: There has been a striking contrast in trans-Tasman interest about Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Zealand and Australia. While the Australian press has been full of articles about the visit – including his curious decision to meet with former prime minister and China booster Paul Keating ...
After years of pressuring banks and other institutions to stop investing in fossil fuels, climate campaigners are making some progress. So how does divestment work?For years, climate activists have been pushing banks and other big institutions to divest from fossil fuels. New research from climate advocacy group 350 Aotearoa ...
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Anything interesting happening?
Isn’t there a poll tonight?
Colmar Brunton:
Nats 44
Lab 37
Green 4 (4.3%)
NZF 10
TOP 2
MP 2
Preferred PM Jacinda 30 Bill 30
Greens will bounce back-some intelligent Labour people should also vote tactically if 5% is in doubt.
National continuing their downward trend
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-greens-plummet-below-five-per-cent-jacinda-effect-keeps-labour-climbing
The poll was conducted between August 12 and 16 with 1007 eligible voters.
Didnt the greens take a wee tumble as well?
Intelligent Labour, TOP and New Zealand First people should just vote for the Greens anyway, as they have better policies and better candidates.
+111
+1000
I don’t want to vote Green this time because they’ve shown themselves to be tactically useless. But with 5% looking in doubt I think I may have to.
Why? Their chances of being in government, let alone any one of them becoming a cabinet minister are shot. It’s looking more and more like the best outcome the left can hope for this election is a Lab/NZF government. We need to make Labour as strong as possible for that eventuality.
Uh, if they get into parliament, they will be needed in government.
Lab/NZF can only get to 61/62 by themselves if the greens aren’t there so they get more seats from the reallocation of the greens votes.
If the Greens are in, they will be needed by Labour to get to a majority. I doubt that the Greens will be in any way magnanimous about Labour trying to form a minority government with NZ first and trying to get the Greens to give them confidence and supply from outside a coalition.
Intelligent people will vote Labour.
Not if they actually care about New Zealand’s future.
National lite needs a large helping of Greens, to keep them honest.
Just noting that the Green Party went to 12 or 15% when Metiria spoke of welfare. Hold that in your mind if you’re bothering to read this comment.
The media and pundits bayed for blood and the Greens then dropped in the polls (Gower’s ‘never seen before poll’ that he felt compelled to conduct – remember that?)
That initial dip is to be expected when negative onslaughts are unleashed off the back of you having basically put a bomb under a comfortable status quo. But you weather them. You keep going. And the reaction to the manufactured negativity comes and resultant rebound comes too.
But instead, the Green Party didn’t just come off the boil, it came off the front foot, back peddled and sat down. They lost momentum and they lost headlines, but worst of all, they left a lot of very negative perceptions hanging in the air.
There’s no nice way to say this. They allowed the negative shit coming from msm and pundits to shape their actions, and a consequence of those defensive actions was the wave of bullshit coming from msm was suddenly unopposed and able to shape and possibly set the perceptions of many people.
And just to help it all along, they said ‘sorry’.
Whatever Shaw meant by apologising is irrelevant. He was talking to NZ and many have simply heard it as an apology for giving a platform to Metiria (a “lying Maori bitch” as far as much of the msm and punditry was/is concerned, in case you missed that from their “oh so subtle” coverage).
So now the Green Party’s in trouble.
And it’s in trouble primarily because it listened first and foremost to what media was saying and reacted to media reporting on its own impacts on general perceptions – instead of continuing to simply and diligently stand its ground and say what it had to say.
They’ll be in government. But they’ve ceded all the high ground they occupied, and all the running they had, and so won’t be the presence in government that they really ought to be and that we (NZ in general) really need them to be.
And yes. I want everything I’ve written in this comment to be absolutely and completely wrong.
The Greens went to 12 or 15% when they crapped all over the MOU and went after Labour’s voters because they thought that Labour was tanking. They (like the rest of us) never imagined that Labour was even capable of or contemplating the dramatic upheaval that saw Little resign and Ardern installed as leader. They miscalculated and now they’ve made their bed (as my mother would say) and they must lie in it.
Labour’s voters
This crap again? Labour don’t own any voters.
You must be sad at this result.
Interesting that you think National owns the people who vote for them.
The result will be known on 23rd Sept. Yes, I think it’s a pity if the Greens have lost support. Sadness isn’t the emotion it generates though.
Your right OAB no party ‘owns’ voters. But some (most?) voters do lend political parties their allegiance. And as we’ve seen in the last 2 weeks those bonds can be pretty strong.
Not in the polls.
But all this bickering is based entirely on supposing what actions caused or mitigated which gain or loss, and which voters migrated from party A to party B.
All we know is that Labour is on a roll, National are in gradual decline, NZ1 is levelling and the Greens have taken a big, but recoverable, hit.
But the Greens run a damned good campaign.
Yeah even in the polls McFlock. Look how hard it’s been to shift support off National while key was in charge, poll after poll had them riding high.
With something like a 12 point variation in poll highs and lows this term, 17 points last term.
So a quarter of nat supporters even under key would drift back and forth, even if it was the same individuals each time.
Don’t go there. Greens spoke for the folk Labour have consigned to poverty, and Labour chose Blairism with the enthusiastic support of the media plague rats, instead of following the Corbynite lead.
Labour should have led on this issue, but unfortunately they’re the same old sellouts, chalking up victories on gender issues instead of addressing poverty and injustice.
The polls are not to be trusted – they’re faked to license the media narrative that the failed austerity policies of the last two governments are not to be questioned.
Stuart Munro
Stop being so clear sighted and factual – it’s not what is good to hear and
should only be whispered behind your hands at midnight in a dark place,
while you are wearing funereal black.
So, the polls were to be trusted when they showed the Greens at record highs, but they’re not to be trusted anymore..?
The polls are not faked. We might not like them all the time, they my each have slightly different outcomes because of slightly different methodologies, and this far out they’re certainly not predictive (a lot can happen in 5 weeks), but they’re not faked. Saying that is juvenile and paranoid.
I think the Greens will bounce back. They won’t bounce as high as they did when Labour was low, but I doubt they’ll stay this low. I do disagree with Bill (above) about why they’ve had such a tough time, though. Metiria’s announcement was always a risky strategy – the media were always going to go digging – it’s what they do. It looks like it wasn’t fully thought through. If it hadn’t been rushed, then they would have made sure they talked to people like ex flatmates, sat down and raked through her past with her for other revelations that could be distracting or undermining, and – most importantly – really made a team decision, with everyone committed to it, rather than having some caucus members uncomfortable and aggrieved. If they’d gone through a thorough process before going public, they would have either:
1) decided not to go public with the personal story, or
2) kept control of the story and kept the focus on the issues, knowing that there were no more layers to unpeel and that they could stick it out as a team.
“The polls are not faked”
Oh really. Remember Gower’s poll – 75% landline and 25% online – not because that’s a credible measure of anything, but because it gave him the numbers to back his fatuous story. It didn’t get much attention because RNZ got Metiria’s scalp, not Gower, but Gower’s whole statistical edifice was poppycock. That’s how debased our media are.
You have to use statistical sampling critically to generate anything other than noise – but current pollsters have found that particular results are much more palatable than the vagaries of real sampling. These are easy to generate, much easier than getting truly representative data.
Tell me that Gower or Hosking or Joyce are too rigorous to deliberately use compromised data – I could use a laugh.
We’re talking Colmar Brunton here, Stuart. It’s a regular, reputable poll. One of a number of them that are regularly reported and analysed.
The same kind of polling that YouGov showed to be largely fallacious.
Small samples, selection bias, leading questions – it really isn’t difficult to not get real results.
These fraudulent results can then be used to justify the vigorous deployment of MSM propaganda, which, unless it is debunked will gradually erode real support and create a false consensus around an issue.
The YouGov polls were not a trivial element of Corbyn’s revival of Labour – they showed the pundits to be wrong and even forced the BBC to step away from their biased anti-Corbyn stance.
A reputable poll would need at least 2000 respondents – and pay some attention to age and income and geographical distribution to ensure the result was meaningful.
Colmar Brunton do pay attention to those issues, Stuart, and the question is the same each time (“If an election was held tomorrow…?”). Plus, the sample number reflects the size of NZ’s population. I’m not a statistician (are you?), but I doubt that they’re lying about the margin of error.
I hope and believe that the Greens will bounce back, but that doesn’t make this poll faked or deliberately biased.
The easiest litmus test for fake polls is whether they elide the undecided and won’t say groups to create the false impression that National enjoys support in the 40s. Because of the substantial undecided/won’t say fraction, Gnat support is in the 30s. But that makes them look like what they are – a conservative rump that only survive through intensive media life support. It’s time to pull that plug.
As for Colmar Brunton – polls of 750-1000 aren’t worth much more than horoscopes. YouGov used 40 000 +.
It didn’t help that one of the first things Ardern dis as leader was distance herself from Turei, a few hours after Gower said she should say she wouldn’t have Turei as a minister. Ardern did not need to do that.
That and a couple of other things signalled to me, and probably a few others, that team Ardern would prefer NZ Furst as an ally rather than the GP. If that happens, the NZ left will be set back a couple of decades, along with those on the lowest incomes, and beneficiaries.
It should be clear to left wingers what they should do – vote, and vote to keep the NZ left alive in parliamentary politics.
She absolutely did need to do that Carolyn-nth. Turei’s position was deteriorating by the hour and Ardern needed a bit of space to get Labour back on an even keel.
Meh – sample the Labour Party song
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We’ll keep the red flag flying here.
She flinched.
+1
So, do you really think a new government could appoint someone as a Minister who would still at that time be under active investigation by a government department to assess the extent of fraud? How would you react if a National government did that?
If Turei had thought things through more, she would have worked things out with MSD before going public, and there could have been a settlement in place. She didn’t. And yes, I know she needed the money at the time, but she’s got plenty of cash now and she was running a political campaign, hoping to become Minister of the department that would be investigating her.
Ardern didn’t flinch – she took a tough decision. She also gave Turei the chance to make her own decision and announcement.
Turei and the Greens championed an important cause and the choice to use her own story added authenticity, but it also had risks and negatives attached and you can’t blame people who were in no way involved in the decision to use that strategy for the outcomes of that.
Pretty well every National minister has lied or fraudulently obtained benefits on a vastly larger scale than Metiria.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Bowing to Gower’s narrative was swallowing a massive double standard for the left.
Carolyn and Stuart,
Jacinda did what she had to do if she wants to be PM. Show she had standards and could make tough decisions.
The public has seen that and it has paid dividends. If you want proof ask JK. Ex PMs like Bolger, Clark and Key, all of whom won three elections, know at a very intimate level just what is required to be a successful PM. Making tough decisions on instinct without a lot of endless reflection is one of the essential attributes. I have seen enough of each of them, especially Bolger and Key since I was in the same party, of how they actually make such decisions.
My sense of Ardern both from interacting with her in Parliament and also since (PACDAC) is that she instantly knew Meritia, as the issue unraveled, could not be in Cabinet.
Wayne – you are so utterly corrupt your opinion is worthless.
John Key is the worst Prime Minister New Zealand has ever had – one does not achieve the most expensive housing, the worst homelessness, and the highest suicide rates in the OECD without being the worst government in the OECD.
That’s what you were – for heaven’s sake take some responsibility!
Nope. Showed that she doesn’t have a spine and will kowtow to the RWNJs Dirty Politics.
Nope. IMO, it’s just that she’s more charismatic than Little.
All the rest is just Bandwagon Effect.
She didn’t flinch. Turei pulled the pin from the grenade, held on to it tightly and blew herself up…. Jacinda wisely stepped back a safe distance.
Adern had a chance to show her true colours.
And she did.
Even Key thinks she is a safe pair of hands, for the rich.
And a cynical person would say that that’s exactly the kind of doubt that he wants to sow in our minds… Yes, really, that nice Mr Key – it’s just possible that he’s got his own motivations for his public statements.
Indeed – that is the effect he wanted. Labour played into his paws.
There is more than could be said, which I won’t, if you stop trying to pin the blame for this on Metiria. She was doing her job.
Come on Stuart Munro, you must of worked out by now that red-blooded is a hard right hack for the labour party.
Piss off, adam. If you see the Labour Party as hard right then your judgement is so skewed as to be worthless.
I’m a secondary school teacher and I have a lifetime of volunteering in fair trade groups, unions, social support groups, international charities and environmental groups, women’s groups, public education lobby groups… if that’s your view of hard Right then that says more about you than me.
@ Adam – no he’s not. A lot of Labour supporters have managed not to get too badly burnt by their party’s actions. They are good people and expect the best of their party, as I used to. Snuggling up to decaying sacs of flesh like Gower will damage Labour in the long term however, and do little to alleviate the distress of those impoverished by the failures of neo-liberalism.
So red-blooded and I’ve asked this from you before, where is the socialist economic policy from the labour party?
You know, left wing economic policy.
None, well bugger me – what else is new.
You lot have a coup, go up in the polls and then lord it over the rest of the left.
So let me rephrase my argument, red-blooded is just another authoritarian labour party hack. Who like everyone else in that party struggles to work with others, Astrturfs, and would rather loss an election (the last one does come to mind) rather than share power with a left wing party.
Mind you, in historical context. The liberal party in NZ was very much the same. I’m sure people who were the wet’s in there day, were very much the same.
Aren’t you a bit premature to blame the GP?
My understanding is that trends tend not to show up til at least several weeks after an event. James Shaw made that “not so great together” speech at the relaunch on Sunday 13 Aug. This latest released poll result was conducted from 12-16 Aug,
Trends take more than one poll to show them – that’s what makes them trends. A single poll can certainly show a reaction to a major event or series of events, though. Again, people here were perfectly happy to interpret the poll that put the Greens so high after their conference as a reaction to Metiria’s speech…
I usually dont make much comment on polls. I tend to comment more on the narratives people derive from them – often the MSM tend to make very slanted headlines.
In my comment at 8.04pm above, I was responding to Bill’s comment in which cited some words spoken by James Shaw. As those words were in James Shaw’s speech at the GP relaunch Sunday pm, they were spoken a day and a half into the Colmar Brunton polling period – which was 12-16 August. So I doubt that speech would be the main cause of the poll drop for the GP.
My understanding is that poll watchers say it takes a few weeks for any single event to show in a poll, as well as for a change in trends. But I could be wrong.
I don’t recall ever making a comment about that 15% GP poll (on or offline).
I don’t think I said that you had commented about that 15%poll, CN. I hadn’t checked back, so I just said “people”. For an example, look at Bill’s comment (3.4.2.2). There was a lot of rejoicing on this site about that poll and no talk then about time delays – a direct link was made between the conference speech and the lift in the poll. I just think we have to be consistent.
And, Bill, the media were the ones who delivered that speech of Metiria’s to the wider public. Somehow, that part of things was OK but not the follow-up work..?
The media were always going to dig and look for another angle on the story – that’s what they do. Turei knew this – she’s been a politician long enough to know how it works. Sorry, but while I admired the message, I still think there was some rushed and/or shoddy thinking and a lack of prep with other interested parties (including the Greens’ caucus).
If Shaw’s words are out of kilter with the time line then fine. The fact still remains that the Green Party went up off the back of Metiria launching the welfare policy.
And then msm set to business.
And unlike other examples I can think of, the Greens didn’t (or didn’t manage to) hold their ground against negative msm messaging.
Not really correct Bill.
The media showed their partisanship and bad faith by misrepresenting and mis reporting the Green reaction.
It is obvious now, that blackmail, is going to be the right wing response to anyone, who tries to do anything serious about poverty.
Five weeks for the Greens to figure this out.
Meanwhile, what would a Labour-NZFirst government look like?
(With a little side dish of Greens)
Dunno how “intelligent” you’d have to be, but helping the Greens is a good idea for leftists.
I’d certainly be tempted to vote Green to help them over the line.
As it is, I reckon that this is the low point and they’ll be in Parliament in October.
The important bit from this poll is National down 3%. Might be statistacl error, but when you’re that close to the margin the odds are that it’s something to look at.
It’s amazing how many people can’t bring themselves to vote tactically….but I reckon the Greens will end up with 8% when the dust settles.
This poll taken at the Greens nadir, probably on purpose.
Don’t be daft. There’s been a lot happening in politics in recent weeks and we’re building up to an election – it’s hardly surprising that a poll’s been conducted.
When the poll that showed the Greens so high was published, was that “on purpose”, too? If so, whose purpose?
mmmm call me cynical but it is very much in the interests of the Right to portray a vote for the Greens as a wasted vote. But you could be right.
New Zealand has a Trudeau election.
Indeed. Apart from the timing of the leadership change (Trudeau had a year and a bit as Opposition Leader before the elections) the parallels are striking.
Greens are out for 2017
They have pursued devisive short term campaiging for too long. A spell out of parliement *may* bring them to their senses. I hope so !
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it? Need Roy Morgan, where Greens often are overstated, to get wider picture
At this point in the electoral cycle, they tend to overstate National by about 4% in my opinion. They also understate the minor parties. Their Labour value is bounces around a bit.
I think that they have some weird population that they sample from. I’d imagine that it is like getting the Auckland sample exclusively from the North Shore or Epsom.
I’ve lived on the Shore for the past 32 years and they’ve never rung me. 🙁
I think I heard the Colmar Brunton guy say on RNZ this morning that they still don’t ring cellphones. They still just ring landlines but correct for age bands and other factors.
Also the TV1 report on the Colmar Brunton poll said that “undecided votes had fallen by 7%” but they didn’t say from what to what.
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
How about the significant margin the poll overestimated Labour suppirt at the 2014 election?
Their Labour value … bounces around a bit.
Lprent, two hours before you, four comments up the page.
Overstating National ≠ understating Labour.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-greens-plummet-below-five-per-cent-jacinda-effect-keeps-labour-climbing
If Dunne loses, it’s a Labour-NZFirst-Maori Party government.
That’s if Flavell hold Waiariki. If he doesn’t then on the poll tonight 8% will be wasted and redistributed to National, Labour and NZFirst.
Unless Peters chooses National.
A month ago Labour were finished.
If NZ F went in with National, all good for a term.
Unless Peters chooses National 😉
What are you talking about? The mess these guys are creating will be much more difficult to retrieve in three years time. Social issues will worsen. Infrastructure issues will worsen, the list goes on.
Can’t really believe you could be that callous toward the vulnerable in this country that you’d just shrug and say, ‘oh well, next time’.
Exactly the same as the point you made below about the Greens.
Difference being, Labour have figured the voters out.
No they haven’t.
Polling says Labour have figured out voters quite a lot better than any other party campaigning right now.
No, polling says that people are more enthused by the new leader. There’s a difference. And not necessarily a good one either for that matter.
A NZFirst/National coalition won’t last a term. the two are more diametrically opposed than Nats/Labour.
That’s always been a distinct possibility. If anything though, this poll lessens the likelihood of that outcome since Winston won’t have to deal with the Greens.
Hopefully Swordfish will be along soon with the stats. But I seem to recall that the last Colmar-Brunton before the 2014 election slightly overstated National, understated the Greens a bit and had Labour about right?
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
Farrar petulant with “Metiria and Jacinda have killed the Greens between them. Proof girls can do anything! ”
A slimy toad that is peed off is not a pretty thing.
Slimy toad piss at the sewer? 🙂
The Nats will still use that Dirty Politics worm even if they are turfed out of office next month but their war chest will diminish and their ability to poll will also.
He must be shitting himself.
It will probably do the Greens some good to go out of parliament for a term. No better way to really get focussed.
They have been naive in the face of the white, RWNJ, bene-bashing rump of NZ which is a formidable force and very large.
They’ll grow from this.
You actually believe that the Greens do not have a +5% base??
More reliable than this poll, I think.
I think they probably do but I’m saying they might learn more with a term outside parliament than if they scrape in just over the 5%.
Well, if they scrape in I will be surprised. I think they will fly in. This poll is temporary rubbish.
I think they’ll pick up significantly too.
I think they can be both an environment party and a social justice party but they need to think hard about their delivery. In the last month they have screwed up their social justice policy and Labour is getting all the press on the environment. Even the Nats farted about an electric car for the government fleet when the Greens were preoccupied.
The Greens’ “preoccupation” was somewhat engineered by hysterical media.
Fortunately, we have weeks to go. But it strikes me as a funny pattern. Last election the most left-wing party was Te Mana. Slaughtered by the media because they unwisely hooked up with KDC..
This time the Greens are the most left-wing party. History repeating itself?
Greens must play very carefully from now on.
yep. The mainstream media like a centrist Labour-led government if they don’t have a National-led one. They tend to demonise people and parties solidly left.
Agreed.
Did the media make Mana hook up with KDC..? No, they decided to take the money, and people decided their fine words were not to be trusted.
Just as the media told you, darling. You go barely ankle-deep.
So what are you questioning here, sweetie pie?
1) Hone decided to take the money. Tick.
2) Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t… And don’t blame the media – Mana had plenty of money to get their message out, it just didn’t ring true.
Hone is incredibly self-serving. Last time, he took the money and thought he could buy his way back into parliament. This time, he’s hooked up again with the Māori Party, despite supposedly seeing them as sell-outs for going with the Nats. Plus, he’s been telling lies about Willy Jackson (saying he supports people voting for Hone over Kelvin Davis – something Jackson absolutely refutes) and trying to get Labour to gift him a seat.
Sue Bradford got it right when she walked away from Mana.
“Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t”
Actually TTT was pretty close.
Reply to weka,: “pretty close” still isn’t “elected”.
But that is a moronic attitude. A beats B by one vote in an electorate of thousands, and you use that thin pretext to condemn the guy who lost by one vote as utterly useless.
Grow up, simpleton.
I don’t believe the claim is real.
What’s the received wisdom on time between an event and how it shows up in voter patterns? I thought it was a couple of weeks but is it different during an election when interest is higher?
@ weka
In terms of major policy planks, it used to be said that it took two months to be disseminated and assimilated by the majority of punters. But when you have the kind of seismic political changes we have seen these past few weeks, I’m picking its around two weeks before the full impact is felt.
If I’m right, the Greens have bottomed out and should be on the rise again by the end of this week. 🙂
“Teenagers jumping out of police cars just because they can”.
I think Bills lost it.
I thought that too, it was a really weird thing to say.
He started the sentence without knowing how he was going to finish it – scary feeling for anyone but with someone as innately dull and authoritarian as Bill it can’t end well.
Along with Winston, who sounded pretty poor to me on RNZ this morning?
It doesn’t have any to do with policy at the moment though does it? It’s all about personality at the moment, and 1 person’s personality at that. This poll won’t even have captured her savvy, assured handling of the unhinged attack form Julie Bishop which even had Mark Richardson (yes him!) whispering on The Project last night that she looked pretty prime ministerial.
Jesus Steven Joyce is even making an appearance on The Project. All hands on deck for the Nats as the ships lists dangerously.
Some of the Green MPs are doing an AMA on reddit this evening.
Gareth Hughes,
https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/6u8089/ask_us_anything_greens_coleader_james_shaw_and/
With Green’s tanking, NZF will go with Labour. It’s pretty simple. I don’t think the polls are going to move much more than they are at now.
I think National could go a bit lower yet infused, maybe 39 to 42%. Colmar Brunton does tend to overestimate their support. And Ardern could push Labour to 40. I agree though that a Lab/NZF government is rapidly becoming the most likely outcome of this election. I also think the Greens will comfortably clear the 5% threshold but be under 8%.
Maybe… but I don’t think so. I reckon movements will be within +/- 2%. Even though Nationals support has gone down, it’s been pretty solid throughout.
I think Greens will pass 5%, just.
UMR already had National drifting down towards 42 before most of the drama unfolded. Their problem, of course, is a lack of options. Especially if Dunne loses and the Māori Party lose Waiariki.
I think there is quite some time to go yet, and the polls will move. But how much will that movement be manipulated by guess who?
Of all the follies in NZ politics, claiming to understand what Winston Peters will do may be the greatest.
You have to laugh. The three witches; Young, Trevett, and Watkins are all terrified and framing their articles from
Macbeth’sEnglish’s point of view.You seem to have an unhealthy fixation on those three, and have made some rather unpleasant comments about Trevett’s appearance in the past. Is mocking a woman’s appearance okay if you don’t like her?
You’re being a bit sensitive. I do have an unhealthy fixation on them but that is because they are not neutral and I expect better from senior journalists.
Trevett’s profile picture drives me nuts because she has an oily face in it so I call her ‘the oily one’ – it’s just a fact. I also call Steven Joyce ‘cone head’ because he has a cone head – a fact again.
My mockery is not gender specific.
If election held today with only those polled oh dear that would be a shocker for the Greens. But that isn’t the case therefore it is just nothing on top of nil with some zero added in. Double down on EVERYTHING and let’s send the gnats hopping.
Lol, imagine if NZ was run on the basis of what 1,000 people said.
Actually run on the basis of what 61 people in Parliament, plus a few “Journalists” say.
Note the headlines were not. “Greens down in the polls tonight”. They were “Greens out of Parliament”. Which is unlikely, and not true, at this stage.
Labour will shit in . No probs.
Tough luck to all the rightie’s .
But to reinforce the lines I will no longer give my vote to Labour , but to the Greens. Which is a pity because for the first time in 30 odd years I was going to vote Labour, dang it !
But the name of the game is to get rid of National and Labour will need their support partners, so every little drop in the bucket is important.
Agreed Wild Katipo-the Left needs the Greens, indeed the Left has often been the Greens over the last 9 years.
Here’s something for the Greenies and us closet Greenies or anyone else interested in the environment especially Antarctica.
http://www.news.com.au/world/chinas-secret-threat-to-australias-antarctic-claim-report-reveals/news-story/d88ca4389f7d621f5b50d529954de68d
China is getting very aggressive in its acquisitiveness.
It sure is ATM and I’m thinking they pegged out their claim when the Antarctic Treaty comes up for renewal around 2020 I believe? There is evidence ATM to suggest that China is also under reporting (also using its soft aid to pay off officials or provide cheap loans/ aid for projects with strings attached) the fish being caught by its own fishing trawlers only in the South West Pacific, but in the Southern Ocean as well.
Running off my iPad atm, but I’ll find the a link I post here sometime ago about Chinese over fishing/ underreporting of their catches in the South Pacific and how the likes of NZ, Oz, the Yanks and French who the bulk of Maritime Fisheries Patrols in the region are having problems in co-ord some of the maritime patrols with of small nations within the South Pacific .
The Natz are hell bent on the TPPA and its another good reason why we need a change in government.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1708/S00338/mcclay-government-approves-tpp11-mandate.htm
Ardern should gift Wellington Central to James Shaw if the polls stay this tight. It could mean not having to put up with NZF in government. As time goes on and Labour’s vote creeps over 40% (and I think it will), National’s vote will start reducing in turn. Who needs Winston?
Labour need to grow their vote from NZF. Because as the GP recovers they will pick up Labour voters again.
Or, it’s all a nonsense anyway 😉
btw, in 2014 Robertson got nearly 20,000 votes, Shaw got 5,000. I think there are probably other electorates that the GP could do better in. Were you thinking Labour could withdraw Robertson? Hard to imagine them doing that given his seniority, and Labour’s position on standing in every seat (and L/G agreement not to do deals).