So, a level 3+, but not quite 4, that gives just enough wriggle room for Mr and Mrs Ladidah Fuckwit to bolt to a holiday home before level 4 resumes? But with the possibility that Mr and/or Mrs Ladidah Fuckwit have packed the virus along with their carry bag or suitcase?
Easy enough to see how this might end somewhat "less than well".
Aye well, 'the rules' are one thing, but then there are the likes of students flying out of Auckland to the South Island on level 4 (still beyond me why there were any fcken domestic passenger flights out of Auckland). Peeps in private chartered planes and sons of judges running here and there at level 4.
And now …?
But still. As long as huge numbers of 'not very vulnerable' people get vaccinated with these leaky vaccines and drive the evolution of the virus such that erstwhile somewhat protected people are that much less protected. And as long as society is successfully encouraged to slate the cause for any rise in seriously ill peeps back to the dirty unvaccinated and vilify them accordingly…
The LaDiDahs ain't moving a muscle until we can change our freaking flights.
Soon as we can we will be straight to Dunedin to sort out mother-in-law's transition to rest home hospital care at Yvette Williams. Terrifying separation.
My ma passed away from cancer last April, after I had to help move her in to a nearby Rest Home & Hospital when she became too frail & unable to look after herself at home, & needed specialist trained end-of-life nursing care I couldn’t provide.
Moved her in Feb 2020, then L4 lockdown arrived for the whole motu. I was unable to visit her. We spoke on the phone for as long as she could manage it, but she passed away while still in L4.
I was fortunately phoned by a male nurse one Friday to say in his estimation she would go any day, & I could come up, masked, & visit with her for 10 minutes. She was by then unable to speak. Died two days later. The same nurse rang me the minute she passed away, & I was allowed to go up to her room & say good-bye, for which I was very grateful.
Her funeral (cremation) was completely no frills, with no attendees. Still in L4.
I was fortunate that even at 94 she’d been sharp as a knife & all her affairs were completely in order. It made executing her will & finalising all other matters very easy, & gave me the satisfaction of knowing that I’d carried out all her wishes & instructions to the letter. She would be proud of me, I know, and that’s what counted the most!
Hope when you do get to Dunners that all goes well for your wife’s mum, Ad.
When I married my late wife, an only child, I had the good fortune to pick up an extra set of parents. They treated me like their son. It was easy to reciprocate their care & affection.
I promised my wife that if anything happened to her, I’d stay in Tawa & look after them. My mum & dad approved. I had other siblings who could look to their welfare.
Aye. The nation's sleeves probably fair bulge with self-justifying laudable exceptions that would profess to be all about the humanity (and the ability to afford same).
Good that Auckland region will go down to L3, but the rest of the nation remains in L2 with the exception of the Mangatangi community, which will be in a quasi-L4 environment for 5 days.
Steady as she goes, with the effective but crude tools; staying the same course and not even moving the deckchairs.
Why jab? Serious question that. Unless you are vulnerable, all you will be doing is 'forcing' the evolution of the virus in a direction that evades vaccination.
There's a medical term for the phenomenon, but it escapes me at the moment.
Anyway. The vaccines are leaky. And given that fact, the best way to endanger vulnerable people is to insist that only mutations capable of sidestepping vaccinations thrive. I believe it's one reason why flu jabs (also leaky) are administered before the flu season and not rolled out to all and sundry during flu's seasonal outbreaks.
The term you’re looking for is selection pressure.
The older you are, the more ‘vulnerable’ you are; you don’t become ‘vulnerable’ overnight the day you turn 65 or whatever age you pick from the Excel stats tables that suits the narrative.
No vaccine is 100% effective and immune responses tend to drop over time, some slower than others. This is normal.
There will be newer (generations of) vaccines for Covid-19, quite possibly targeting more than one (dominant) strain each year.
Indeed, better to vaccine before the infectious season is upon us, which is what we’re doing now thanks to the artificial ‘pre-season’ conditions stemming from the elimination strategy. Problem is that evolution takes place virtually unabated in the rest of the world.
The mutation rate of Covid-19 is relatively (s)low.
As long as NZ sticks to the proven elimination strategy very few will catch Covid-19, even fewer will become seriously ill, and only rarely will a patient succumb to it – 27 in over 18 months.
Meanwhile, get as many preventative measures in place, including building as much population immunity as possible against current variants, which in reality is Delta. It is the best we can do under these shitty circumstances, unless you have a better suggestion.
Vaccination is, however, not a silver bullet.
PS despite annual multi-strain flu vaccinations, each year quite a few die of the disease. However, measures aimed at Covid-19 seem to have influenced those numbers. Gives you food for thought, doesn’t it?
That's true. The bit you're missing is "leaky". It is not generally the case that being vaccinated leaves you with around a 50/50 chance of being infected by a virus that will still replicate within you even though you're vaccinated and result in you being a spreader of infection.
There will be newer (generations of) vaccines for Covid-19, quite possibly targeting more than one (dominant) strain each year.
Maybe. And the development of a vaccine would generally take ten years or so. The fact we have a clutch of vaccines that we don't know the medium or long term risks of, should maybe be reason enough to pause for thought.
Indeed, better to vaccine before the infectious season is upon us, which is what we’re doing now thanks to the artificial ‘pre-season’ conditions stemming from the elimination strategy. Problem is that evolution takes place virtually unabated in the rest of the world.
It's a global pandemic. NZ's very low rates of infection doesn't mean that NZ is in some kind of "pre-flu season" situation. As you wrote, the virus is mutating all around us. That means we are slap bang in the high season.
The mutation rate of Covid-19 is relatively (s)low.
I'm not sure what you're basing that on. Regardless. There's an ever emerging list of VOIs VOCs (variations of interest and variations of concern). And since viruses replicate in 'silly numbers' and (to my point about mass vaccination exposing vulnerable sections of society) we are skewing the environment such that only mutations capable of avoiding the current leaky vaccinations spread and multiply…
A better move would be, as with flu, vaccinate the vulnerable, or those who consider themselves vulnerable. Do not create an environment, by vaccinating all and sundry, that decreases the already imperfect protection for the vulnerable amongst us.
For those who would not think themselves vulnerable, I guess attaining or maintaining a broadly healthy state wouldn't be a bad idea.
So Auckland spent about the same amount in level 4 this time as NZ did the first time around, but started this time with a lower number of cases.
This seems to have saved a few more people from being infected at the peak of the current outbreak (speed saves lives and illnesses!), but this outbreak is slightly wider at the ~20 per day mark. Which we probably all kinda knew.
So, factors that can affect the curve (off the top of my head):
Contagiousness: yes, but wouldn't we expect a wider pattern for the full height of the current curve, rather than this little step at the bottom? The delta of doom should have been more difficult to confront at the peak as well as near the base if projected R0 was the main factor affecting our ability to control it.
Specific communities affected: A community with less exposure to, access to, or trust in government organisations and providers being impacted this time around could be the bulk of the "long tail", true. This could be our longstanding and oft-lamented (or denied by the privileged) inequities in access to healthcare could be biting us in the covid response.
Lockdown fatigue: No idea of the stats on this, but maybe people have let their definitions of "essential" and "bubble" slip. Not just the high-profile cases, but the daily grind of distancing on store runs, not chatting with friends or neighbours face to face, that sort of thing. The top gets knocked off the outbreak, but folks fall into silly habits and keep covid ticking over.
I think the curve indicates that the middle and last possibilities are the main drivers for the shape of the curve, rather than delta being significantly more difficult to stamp out than covd mk1.
Based on what I've seen, people are less inclined to follow the 'rules' to the letter this time around… partly because there are less unknowns this time… ie we know outdoor transmission is rare so chatting in the garden, park, beach etc is very low risk. .. you can also add to that vaccination, once you've had a jab or two it's very clear the risks you face are very small so rather than have the mental health struggle, cabin fever etc you expand your bubble… you add those cohorts to non belivers it makes a significant number of people.
the vaxxed thinking they're all good is a concern. I saw this play out with people I knew in the US who once they were vaccinated started travelling. Seemed mad even then, but now it's clear that vaccinated people can still transmit, we need more emphasis on hand washing, masks, appropriate distancing.
Statistically unless you have significant comorbidities once you are double vaxxed an even single vaxxed you are 'all good' very hard to tell someone who has done their bit in getting vaxxed that actually you still have to maintain distance etc… as the vaxxed percentage grows lockdowns are going to become less and less politically feasible.
Basically from todays decision onwards I suspect things get alot harder for the govt… in that acceptance of returning to a level 4 lockdown isnt going to be there but at the same time our health system will not cope with an outbreak even amongst the 25 percent or so people who haven’t been vaxxed
The study shows that vaccinated people who become infected with the Delta variant carry high peak levels of virus. When the Alpha variant was dominant in the United Kingdom, vaccinated people who became infected had much lower peak viral loads.
The implications of this aren’t clear, Walker says. “Most of our tests are monthly; we can’t really say very much at all about how long people are infectious for and particularly whether that’s different with Delta,” she says. “Anyone who thinks that if they get infected having been vaccinated, they can’t transmit — that isn’t likely to be true.”
Part of the problem here is that much of the discussion about vaccines last year didn't make it clear that the covid vaccine gives partial not full immunity.
What I'm hearing from the government is that going forward we will need all the tools. Vaccination, hygiene practices, periodic probably localised lockdowns. The vaccine on its own won't be enough even if we get to very high rates.
The results, published in a preprint on 19 August1, suggest that both vaccines are effective against Delta after two doses, but that the protection they offer wanes with time. The vaccine made by Pfizer in New York City and BioNTech in Mainz, Germany, was 92% effective at keeping people from developing a high viral load — a high concentration of the virus in their test samples — 14 days after the second dose. But the vaccine’s effectiveness fell to 90%, 85% and 78% after 30, 60 and 90 days, respectively.
We're not going back to normal once everyone is vaccinated, we will have to create a new society. I don't think having to use multiple tools is a bad thing eg it's dropped the flu and cold rates too. I'd like to see us address poverty as a driver of respiratory illness, and also look at wellbeing more broadly. Lots of people I know (South Island) feel that there are benefits to lockdown beyond elimination of covid eg slowing down, time to reflect on what matters, better work/life balance. Obviously that's not been possible for everyone, and it's a perspective probably more outside of Auckland that's done the heavy lifting in the past year. But we don't need to be afraid of the uncertainty given we still have a very good public health response across the tools.
Thing is that hasnt really been the messaging… and its very clear from the stats and backed up but what we're told by govt that if double vaxxed your chances of getting seriously ill are extremely small so restrictions are going to be a hard sell. It seems at this point the best immunity comes from catching covid then having a single shot afterwards… and as Bill mentions above, leaky vaccines (as these are) come with their own potential issues.
Its going to be a long and difficult road and personally I feel that we haven't actually advanced our preparedness that much even though we bought ourselves alot of time with the first lockdown.
That belief is based on a few things, such as rushing builders into hospitals once we were in level 4 to commision more negative pressure rooms, running out of quarantine capacity very quickly, having to train more contact tracers mid out outbreak, nurses not fitted to N95 mask… all things we should have had ready to roll in the time we had… it's almost like there was great confidence that our border strategy would keep delta, imagine the fallout if it had arrived 8 weeks earlier before we had sufficient vaccine in the country…
It seems at this point the best immunity comes from catching covid then having a single shot afterwards…
Please, do tell us more. This is a major issue debated by experts and far from settled, AFAIK. However, nobody is actually arguing that one should deliberately catch Covid-19 first and then take a “single shot” (of which vaccine?) to build the “best immunity”. I look forward to being educated on this topic further.
but what we're told by govt that if double vaxxed your chances of getting seriously ill are extremely small so restrictions are going to be a hard sell.
The issue isn't only who gets ill, it's who passes covid on to others. Delta won't be the last variant, the current vaccines don't last that long. We are acting as if the vaccine is a silver bullet.
The government is between a rock and a hard place in terms of messaging. They have to balance hope with reality and uncertainty. No-one knows how this is going to play out, we're still in the novel part of the novel virus.
There are definitely holes in our covid response, some avoidable, some not. Each wave of pressure brings new learning and new adaptation. This is the world we live in, and even if covid passes, there will be future challenges and climate change means that everyone now lives an uncertain life. The more resiliency and adaptability we build now as a society, the better off we will be.
The idea that’s slowly growing, in Government and then the seed is planted in the public, is that lockdowns will hopefully be a thing of the past, but this doesn’t necessarily rule out Level 3 measures.
what's the current thinking on object transmission. Drinks at 2m on the drive might be fine until someone has to handle the wine glasses. Or is it all air and direct contact risk now?
Pretty sure I heard at least one of the TV station “Go To” virology experts say recently that surface transmission wasn’t really all that much of a concern these days. It’s airborne transmission that’s the primary vector.
Doesn’t mean the other usual experts agree with him. (Can’t remember who it was – a male though.)
We tend to be able to detect the more rare "elevator button" exposures simply because there are so few other connections and our contact tracing and genome sequencing are so on ball.
Try that in Texas, who the heck knows precisely who gave someone the covid.
But most hospo workers I've encountered are masked up and gloved/sanitisered up pretty well, so the contamination is minimal as long as you use sanitiser when using any eftpos keypads (if your cards aren't yet contactless).
When we were briefly in L4 in Welly this year, I noticed that the local supermarket staff didn’t seem to be assiduously wiping down all the trolley handles & wire cage tops after each use, as they were during L4 last year.
They were running a very clear system in 2020. You were only permitted to select a trolley from the disinfected trolley racks. Used trolleys went into a separate rack, further away from the doorkeepers, until they’d been sprayed & handles wiped down.
This last time, they were more into encouraging shoppers to use the gels & handsprays before selecting a trolley
Well, a lot of that is covered by basic food hygiene in most places. Controls against rotovirus or what have you also work against coronavirus.
I suspect covid means a lot more small places are now actually wearing gloves as often as they should have been all along (years ago friend of mine overheard her new deli counter boss saying so many more disposable gloves were being used since friend started – she was using the gloves to spec, nobody else was lol).
I commented elsewhere that it seems like people down south are taking precautions more seriously since the Auckland/Wanaka couple thing. Good.
Re wine glasses, I was thinking about the flux of the fuzzy boundaries in different levels. Does socialising on the driveway with a 2m distance increase the spread of the virus or decrease it because it enables people to do the other, more important measures better and for longer (someone might have already said this).
No, I think you are right. A more infectious virus just means that some types of interpersonal contact that would be relatively harmless with a less infectious pathogen, become more risky. Your lockdown therefore needs to limit contact somewhat more strictly to be as successful. But in the real world, this strictness has natural limits – it hits boundaries beyond which people will not or cannot comply. And those limits are not uniform across a population but are influenced by people's circumstances, knowledge, expectations, habits, etc.
Good to see some heat being put on at last. There has to be a deterrent. Their own community, now under L4 will be the judge. Hopefully the support, too.
That article is interesting raises a few questions though, ie if he caught it from the driver who was a family member do the live in the town he was bailed to or did they drive him from Auckland and they returned once he was dropped off… has the driver been tested? and where did they catch it from?
Then the accomodation was no longer available which reads like the family kicked him back out… you have to ask why… were unwelcome 'vistors' coming to the house? If thats the case there's going to be a sting in the tail… worrying really…
Living alone, I’d probably soon expire without a good stock of frozen Tomorrow’s Meals. One soon gets sick of cooking & doing pots, pans & other dishes for one most of the time.
“Three senior staff have departed the National Party’s Parliamentary office in recent weeks as the party’s poll ratings have plummeted.
Digital director Francis Till, press secretary Julia Stewart, and head of data and insights Sophie Lloyd have all departed. All have years of experience in Parliament.
“National leader Judith Collins has admitted she made a mistake after she was caught on video over the weekend ordering icecream at the counter of a Queenstown café without wearing a mask.
People living in Mangatangi or having visited/worked there are being told to stay home. If there's any outward transmission, new cases will be picked up and managed as per normal. They've had a few days to do contact and location tracing of the known cases, and I would guess they're also looking forward in time to surrounding areas. I also assume we're further ahead of the curve than we were with the original Auckland case that set of this outbreak.
Not sure about that if one of the kids was at school while infectious last week its very possible.it could have been passed on again and with the very short incubation Delta has its very possible someone else has picked it up, become infectious between Thursday last week and todays announcement and travelled into Hamilton for example
But, if the virus is in Hamilton it will spread fast because they are only in Level 2? Isn't it basically impossible to contain Delta with contract tracing in Level 2?
You can't contract trace ahead of time though? I agree with the last part, the source appears to be one of the people who drove him to the bail address.
If delta cases turn up in Hamilton, it won't stay at L2.
I don't know how they manage this, but Mangatangi has a population of 400 ish people. It's different than a city of a million.
I would expect increased public health messaging in those areas eg if you have symptoms stay home and get tested.
They're also doing a huge test drive in the area, which should pick up cases, and those people will then give their movements, which generates close contacts and locations of interest, and those people will isolate and so on.
But, it could already have been circulating in Hamilton for 2 days and there could be x number of cases? But, then you are always behind, when you pick up cases they have already passed it on?
As for contact tracing ahead of time, not sure what that would do to the tracers' workload or the impact on compliance. Or even what models they would use to predict it without swamping tracers and contacters with thousands more people who don't really have a realistic chance of being infected, and half of Auckland being traced for every positive case.
I was saying contract tracing cannot control Delta at Level 2, but your comment made me think about doing it 'ahead of time'. The government should have used something like the United States' Defense Production Act to force companies to become contract tracers.
I also think they should have had a large facility/facilities for isolation or used monitoring. The tracers could isolate what they call 'very close contacts' 2 days ahead.
Oh, I thought that's what you meant by "ahead of time" at 9.1.2.
I think they already use MIQ slots for isolation – like that was why they suspended MIQ during L4?
The thing about predicting close contacts is that most won't actually have been close contacts.The flipside is to up the community testing – saw this morning that everyone in an entire suburb is asked to get tested?
If it's spreading between unknown contacts at L2, there's trouble, sure. But if it is focused in known family or social groups, and we pretty well know the limits of that group, then should be ok even at 2.
Yes, but MIQ capacity is limited. They only quarantine cases and sometimes their household.
Yes, they have been doing that over the past week. I am not sure what the uptake is though. Most people do not stay just stay in their family and social groups in Level 2 though?
We-ell people are creatures of habit. Usual supermarket, usual workplace, usual home. Sure, you might pass someone in the supermarket, but they're far more likely to live a few blocks away than go to Wellington the next day.
So you have problems with individuals who have many, many contacts – salespeople, "essential" politicians trying to keep their jobs, that sort of thing. Then there are the mixing events, like rugby matches and rock gigs.
There's a lot of crossover with network theory – most people only have a few nodes of connection and those are pretty short distance edges. Then there are a few people with a lot of connections, and a few people with "long string" connections so that they have the usual flatmate/work connections but also have say a connect with someone in a different town – e.g. truckies.
So limiting the size of gatherings deals to the nodes with lots of connections, and things like contactless deliveries helps limit the likelihood of the long strings infecting unconnected subnetworks.
But it also illustrates why predictive isolation might be functionally impossible to implement: say I am a close contact of a colleague who went to a supermarket between 4 and 5 pm. So I go into isolation, even though my colleague probably hasn't infected me. But then I went to a supermarket between 7 and 8 pm. The might be an extra 400 people who need to be tracked down and isolated and tested, when their transmission node (me) probably didn't have it anyway. Then there are all my other colleagues as close contacts (and the people they were on the bus with being "close contacts once removed"), etc. The numbers pretty quickly become unmanagable.
Whereas we'd probably all be better off doing it as we are now.
sure, but there's a balance to be had between the negative social realities of lockdown and the necessity to get ahead of transmission.
Someone who understands it better than me can maybe talk about the R value of delta at the start of transmission in the community. I thought it was the low R value that enabled Auckland to go from L4 to L3 this week, the value being low because most people getting covid at the moment are already in isolation.
It's not like Hamilton is in L1. L2 does have measures in place to prevent spread of unknown covid in the community, that's the whole point of all of us staying in L2 until the transmission chains are broken.
I'm also guessing that the MoH/government wants to know more before putting Waikato into a higher level, they want to know what they are dealing with.
What do you classify as negative social impacts of lockdown? Yes, they cited the low R-value. However, some of the daily cases are infectious in the community and in Level 3 the chances of passing it on are higher so the R-value may increase.
The main NZ Covid modelling software can now predict likely areas of spread from very localised Stats NZ data, so I imagine they would have run that to set the size of this latest L4 pocket. Nothing is foolproof when humans are involved, however. Excellent contact tracing is essential.
I was very surprised the initial modelling predicted 50-100 and then 100-200 cases given it was Delta with an unknown source and many large exposure events.
However, he [Hendy] warns the outbreak will continue to grow.
"I would say a best case scenario would be something like what we saw in August last year – probably, higher than that. Maybe 200 [cases] might be the best case scenario but it could go as high as 1000 [cases]. That's still a possibility.
"But we will see later this week how alert level four is working and it's alert level four which will actually determine the number of cases in this cluster."
NZ moved Level 4 lockdown on midnight Tuesday 17th of August, so in all reality on Wednesday 18th of August. The date stamp on the linked piece is 23th of August.
Do you know how modelling works? Do you know what it can and cannot do? Do you know how it depends on boundary settings, initial parameterisation, and overall model assumptions? Do you know that useful predictive models include probabilities and confidence intervals?
Yes. I am at university and have done Statistics papers at Stage 1, 2 and 3. What I am saying is you should not take modelling as what is going to happen.
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The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
Chris Trotter writes – The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three. ...
Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blogIn 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
Citizen Science writes – Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
Karl du Fresne writes – There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
David Farrar writes – The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time.A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced ...
You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated. While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
The Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...
The Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...
Māori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...
The Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...
Changes to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...
The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research. “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...
With submissions closing today, Macassey-Pickard says groups around the country have been supporting a huge range of people to make their submissions. ...
Our response to the new legislation is informed by targeted conversations with practitioners working in the system and through an implementation lens. ...
The new ‘Fast-track Approvals Bill’ would give just three Ministers the power to approve or deny development projects. They would avoid the usual checks and balances that are in place to protect rivers, land, the ocean, and communities. ...
COMMENTARY:By Eugene Doyle Helen Clark, how I miss you. The former New Zealand Prime Minister — the safest pair of hands this country has had in living memory — gave a masterclass on the importance of maintaining an independent foreign policy when she spoke at an AUKUS symposium held ...
The government's released the list of organisations provided with information on how to apply - just hours before public submissions on the bill close. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Before climate change really got going, eastern Australia’s flash floods tended to concentrate on our coastal regions, east of the Great Dividing Range. But that’s changing. Now ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Finkel, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University Sia Duff / South Australian Museum In February, the South Australian Museum “re-imagined” itself. In the face of rising costs and inadequate government funds, CEO David Gaimster, who took the reins last June, declared ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Pearce, Professor, School of Allied Heath, Human Services & Sport, La Trobe University, La Trobe University This week, Collingwood AFL player Nathan Murphy announced his retirement, brought on by his concussion history and ongoing issues. The 24-year-old’s seemingly sudden retirement, ...
The Mental Health Foundation provides support and resources for those facing the loss of their job, so it’s wrong in the very week the Government adds another 1000 jobs to its tally of cuts, that this is happening. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney Daniel Boud/Sydney Theatre Company Decay, terror, revulsion. These are three of the central themes of Thomas Bernhard’s rarely performed play The President. The Austrian is one of the greatest ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ye In (Jane) Hwang, Postdoctoral Research Associate at School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock You’d be hard pressed to find any aspect of daily life that doesn’t require some form of digital literacy. We need only to look back ten ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says threats by ministers Shane Jones and David Seymour to reform or close down the Waitangi Tribunal were “ill-considered”, as legal experts say the ministers may have breached Cabinet Manual conventions. “I think those comments are ill-considered and we expect all ministers to actually exercise good ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Newton, Professor of Exercise Medicine, Edith Cowan University Pexels/RDNE stock project You’re not in your 20s or 30s anymore and you know regular health checks are important. So you go to your GP. During the appointment they measure your waist. ...
A new poem by Evangeline Riddiford Graham. Mitochondrial Problem I. It was long drive to Kansas for the man and his dog but you have to understand he said She doesn’t fly. Which calls to mind not carsick shitting barking or whining but a dog who chooses not to as ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38)Hot off the press, this debut ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Wajnryb McDonald, PhD candidate in Criminology, University of Sydney Less than 24 hours after Ashlee Good was murdered in Bondi Junction, her family released a statement requesting the media take down photographs they had reproduced of Ashlee and her family without ...
Chief executive Shaun Robinson said it has not had any government funding cut, but government-funded contracts have not kept pace with rising costs. ...
The Ministry of Health has delayed the release of its evidence brief on the safety, reversibility and mental health and wellbeing outcomes for puberty blockers. While we wait, Julia de Bres speaks to those with firsthand experience. Best practice gender-affirming healthcare is based on trans people’s self-determination and agency. The ...
Barcelona’s city streets have gone from traffic-clogged to pedestrian-friendly. How? Superblocks. Ellen Rykers explains. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week I read a great interview with renowned urbanist Janette Sadik-Khan by The Spinoff’s Wellington editor Joel MacManus: “You can reimagine streets, ...
Student groups ‘Climate Action VUW’, Schools Strike 4 Climate and VUWSA will be on the street in Wellington today, the last day for submissions on the Fast-track Approvals Bill, with a message that the fight against the Government’s ‘War on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University Since 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has grown exponentially – and so has the formidable organisational machine of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Associate Professor of Education (Adjunct) & Senior Manager (BCE), Charles Sturt University During COVID almost all Australian students and their families experienced online learning. But while schools have long since gone back to in-person teaching, online learning has not gone ...
Yes, they’re better for the environment. No, that’s not a good enough reason for me to use them. Once every 26 days or so, my period arrives, and if struck by an act of God, I am caught red-crotched without products. How, after 17 years of this, do I still ...
“It will cause significant harm to our environment and communities. It is completely at odds with New Zealanders’ relationship with nature and our need for a low-carbon, sustainable economic future." ...
The Chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki, has warned a Parliamentary Select Committee that fast-tracking legislation is a perilous practice that undermines the core tenets of democracy, transparency, and accountability. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Associate Professor, Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Since coming into power, the coalition government has adopted a simple but shrewd see-how-fast-we-can-move political strategy. However, in the health sector this need for speed entails ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Hronis, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney Darya Sannikova/Pexels Whether you’re watching TV, attending a footy game, or eating a meal at your local pub, gambling is hard to escape. Although the rise of gambling is not unique to Australia, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Wong, Forrest Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia Have you ever wondered if there are more insects out at night than during the day? We set out to answer this question by combing through the scientific ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol T Kulik, Research Professor, University of South Australia IR Stone/Shutterstock In Australia, it’s not the done thing to know – let alone ask – what our colleagues are paid. Yet, it’s easy to see how pay transparency can make pay ...
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is sounding a warning to migrants, that running foul of the law may see them leaving the country prematurely. ...
The government’s plan to get 50,000 people off jobseeker support by 2030 has had a rocky start, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Beneficiary numbers are up – and so are ...
Raglan Roast is a staple of Wellington coffee culture. But with five branches across the capital, which one is the best? I am a die-hard Raglan Roast fan. It’s consistently the most affordable cafe in Wellington, and one of the only places you can get a coffee after 3pm. So, ...
Residents of University of Auckland halls are being urged to withhold their accommodation fees from May 1, in a bid to force the university to take student concerns over rent hikes seriously.The University of Auckland is facing a strike from students over the cost of on-campus accommodation. The Students ...
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Just saw this on TV1:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fhsay1plEfg
Cute & clever
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/451909/live-the-pm-on-cabinet-s-alert-level-decision
As a "rule breaker" I can go on breaking the rules – PLAYING MY PART.
So, a level 3+, but not quite 4, that gives just enough wriggle room for Mr and Mrs Ladidah Fuckwit to bolt to a holiday home before level 4 resumes? But with the possibility that Mr and/or Mrs Ladidah Fuckwit have packed the virus along with their carry bag or suitcase?
Easy enough to see how this might end somewhat "less than well".
Mr. and Mrs. LF are only allowed take-aways. No holidays Bill. Good to see you back.
Aye well, 'the rules' are one thing, but then there are the likes of students flying out of Auckland to the South Island on level 4 (still beyond me why there were any fcken domestic passenger flights out of Auckland). Peeps in private chartered planes and sons of judges running here and there at level 4.
And now …?
But still. As long as huge numbers of 'not very vulnerable' people get vaccinated with these leaky vaccines and drive the evolution of the virus such that erstwhile somewhat protected people are that much less protected. And as long as society is successfully encouraged to slate the cause for any rise in seriously ill peeps back to the dirty unvaccinated and vilify them accordingly…
Long time no see and haere mai.
The LaDiDahs ain't moving a muscle until we can change our freaking flights.
Soon as we can we will be straight to Dunedin to sort out mother-in-law's transition to rest home hospital care at Yvette Williams. Terrifying separation.
Sympathies.
My ma passed away from cancer last April, after I had to help move her in to a nearby Rest Home & Hospital when she became too frail & unable to look after herself at home, & needed specialist trained end-of-life nursing care I couldn’t provide.
Moved her in Feb 2020, then L4 lockdown arrived for the whole motu. I was unable to visit her. We spoke on the phone for as long as she could manage it, but she passed away while still in L4.
I was fortunately phoned by a male nurse one Friday to say in his estimation she would go any day, & I could come up, masked, & visit with her for 10 minutes. She was by then unable to speak. Died two days later. The same nurse rang me the minute she passed away, & I was allowed to go up to her room & say good-bye, for which I was very grateful.
Her funeral (cremation) was completely no frills, with no attendees. Still in L4.
I was fortunate that even at 94 she’d been sharp as a knife & all her affairs were completely in order. It made executing her will & finalising all other matters very easy, & gave me the satisfaction of knowing that I’d carried out all her wishes & instructions to the letter. She would be proud of me, I know, and that’s what counted the most!
Hope when you do get to Dunners that all goes well for your wife’s mum, Ad.
OMG that is freaking terrible Gezza.
Well done for staying organised to the end.
Cheers for the best wishes. Will report back.
Ma was my mother-in-law, Ad.
When I married my late wife, an only child, I had the good fortune to pick up an extra set of parents. They treated me like their son. It was easy to reciprocate their care & affection.
I promised my wife that if anything happened to her, I’d stay in Tawa & look after them. My mum & dad approved. I had other siblings who could look to their welfare.
And it was some consolation, when ma passed away, that I wasn’t the only one in that situation.
There were many of us who shared that stressful time. For some reason, knowing that helped, somehow.
Aye.
Aye. The nation's sleeves probably fair bulge with self-justifying laudable exceptions that would profess to be all about the humanity (and the ability to afford same).
Good that Auckland region will go down to L3, but the rest of the nation remains in L2 with the exception of the Mangatangi community, which will be in a quasi-L4 environment for 5 days.
Steady as she goes, with the effective but crude tools; staying the same course and not even moving the deckchairs.
Let's keep on jabbing!
“Let’s keep on jabbing”
Speaking of which – a bit late coming to the party, but good to see nevertheless. Let’s hope it helps:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/te-manu-korihi/451905/maori-king-and-other-leaders-endorse-pfizer-vaccine
Let's keep on jabbing!
Why jab? Serious question that. Unless you are vulnerable, all you will be doing is 'forcing' the evolution of the virus in a direction that evades vaccination.
There's a medical term for the phenomenon, but it escapes me at the moment.
Anyway. The vaccines are leaky. And given that fact, the best way to endanger vulnerable people is to insist that only mutations capable of sidestepping vaccinations thrive. I believe it's one reason why flu jabs (also leaky) are administered before the flu season and not rolled out to all and sundry during flu's seasonal outbreaks.
That's very true… some here are very intolerante to that message.
We must mandate vaccination. \sarc
The term you’re looking for is selection pressure.
The older you are, the more ‘vulnerable’ you are; you don’t become ‘vulnerable’ overnight the day you turn 65 or whatever age you pick from the Excel stats tables that suits the narrative.
No vaccine is 100% effective and immune responses tend to drop over time, some slower than others. This is normal.
There will be newer (generations of) vaccines for Covid-19, quite possibly targeting more than one (dominant) strain each year.
Indeed, better to vaccine before the infectious season is upon us, which is what we’re doing now thanks to the artificial ‘pre-season’ conditions stemming from the elimination strategy. Problem is that evolution takes place virtually unabated in the rest of the world.
The mutation rate of Covid-19 is relatively (s)low.
As long as NZ sticks to the proven elimination strategy very few will catch Covid-19, even fewer will become seriously ill, and only rarely will a patient succumb to it – 27 in over 18 months.
Meanwhile, get as many preventative measures in place, including building as much population immunity as possible against current variants, which in reality is Delta. It is the best we can do under these shitty circumstances, unless you have a better suggestion.
Vaccination is, however, not a silver bullet.
PS despite annual multi-strain flu vaccinations, each year quite a few die of the disease. However, measures aimed at Covid-19 seem to have influenced those numbers. Gives you food for thought, doesn’t it?
No vaccine is 100% effective …
That's true. The bit you're missing is "leaky". It is not generally the case that being vaccinated leaves you with around a 50/50 chance of being infected by a virus that will still replicate within you even though you're vaccinated and result in you being a spreader of infection.
There will be newer (generations of) vaccines for Covid-19, quite possibly targeting more than one (dominant) strain each year.
Maybe. And the development of a vaccine would generally take ten years or so. The fact we have a clutch of vaccines that we don't know the medium or long term risks of, should maybe be reason enough to pause for thought.
Indeed, better to vaccine before the infectious season is upon us, which is what we’re doing now thanks to the artificial ‘pre-season’ conditions stemming from the elimination strategy. Problem is that evolution takes place virtually unabated in the rest of the world.
It's a global pandemic. NZ's very low rates of infection doesn't mean that NZ is in some kind of "pre-flu season" situation. As you wrote, the virus is mutating all around us. That means we are slap bang in the high season.
The mutation rate of Covid-19 is relatively (s)low.
I'm not sure what you're basing that on. Regardless. There's an ever emerging list of VOIs VOCs (variations of interest and variations of concern). And since viruses replicate in 'silly numbers' and (to my point about mass vaccination exposing vulnerable sections of society) we are skewing the environment such that only mutations capable of avoiding the current leaky vaccinations spread and multiply…
A better move would be, as with flu, vaccinate the vulnerable, or those who consider themselves vulnerable. Do not create an environment, by vaccinating all and sundry, that decreases the already imperfect protection for the vulnerable amongst us.
For those who would not think themselves vulnerable, I guess attaining or maintaining a broadly healthy state wouldn't be a bad idea.
So a couple of things come up about this lockdown vs the first one, using ourworldindata stringency index and daily new case rolling 7 day average.
So Auckland spent about the same amount in level 4 this time as NZ did the first time around, but started this time with a lower number of cases.
This seems to have saved a few more people from being infected at the peak of the current outbreak (speed saves lives and illnesses!), but this outbreak is slightly wider at the ~20 per day mark. Which we probably all kinda knew.
So, factors that can affect the curve (off the top of my head):
I think the curve indicates that the middle and last possibilities are the main drivers for the shape of the curve, rather than delta being significantly more difficult to stamp out than covd mk1.
Anyone have any other ideas?
Based on what I've seen, people are less inclined to follow the 'rules' to the letter this time around… partly because there are less unknowns this time… ie we know outdoor transmission is rare so chatting in the garden, park, beach etc is very low risk. .. you can also add to that vaccination, once you've had a jab or two it's very clear the risks you face are very small so rather than have the mental health struggle, cabin fever etc you expand your bubble… you add those cohorts to non belivers it makes a significant number of people.
the vaxxed thinking they're all good is a concern. I saw this play out with people I knew in the US who once they were vaccinated started travelling. Seemed mad even then, but now it's clear that vaccinated people can still transmit, we need more emphasis on hand washing, masks, appropriate distancing.
Statistically unless you have significant comorbidities once you are double vaxxed an even single vaxxed you are 'all good' very hard to tell someone who has done their bit in getting vaxxed that actually you still have to maintain distance etc… as the vaxxed percentage grows lockdowns are going to become less and less politically feasible.
Basically from todays decision onwards I suspect things get alot harder for the govt… in that acceptance of returning to a level 4 lockdown isnt going to be there but at the same time our health system will not cope with an outbreak even amongst the 25 percent or so people who haven’t been vaxxed
Preprint from August,
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02261-8
Part of the problem here is that much of the discussion about vaccines last year didn't make it clear that the covid vaccine gives partial not full immunity.
What I'm hearing from the government is that going forward we will need all the tools. Vaccination, hygiene practices, periodic probably localised lockdowns. The vaccine on its own won't be enough even if we get to very high rates.
We're not going back to normal once everyone is vaccinated, we will have to create a new society. I don't think having to use multiple tools is a bad thing eg it's dropped the flu and cold rates too. I'd like to see us address poverty as a driver of respiratory illness, and also look at wellbeing more broadly. Lots of people I know (South Island) feel that there are benefits to lockdown beyond elimination of covid eg slowing down, time to reflect on what matters, better work/life balance. Obviously that's not been possible for everyone, and it's a perspective probably more outside of Auckland that's done the heavy lifting in the past year. But we don't need to be afraid of the uncertainty given we still have a very good public health response across the tools.
Thing is that hasnt really been the messaging… and its very clear from the stats and backed up but what we're told by govt that if double vaxxed your chances of getting seriously ill are extremely small so restrictions are going to be a hard sell. It seems at this point the best immunity comes from catching covid then having a single shot afterwards… and as Bill mentions above, leaky vaccines (as these are) come with their own potential issues.
Its going to be a long and difficult road and personally I feel that we haven't actually advanced our preparedness that much even though we bought ourselves alot of time with the first lockdown.
That belief is based on a few things, such as rushing builders into hospitals once we were in level 4 to commision more negative pressure rooms, running out of quarantine capacity very quickly, having to train more contact tracers mid out outbreak, nurses not fitted to N95 mask… all things we should have had ready to roll in the time we had… it's almost like there was great confidence that our border strategy would keep delta, imagine the fallout if it had arrived 8 weeks earlier before we had sufficient vaccine in the country…
Please, do tell us more. This is a major issue debated by experts and far from settled, AFAIK. However, nobody is actually arguing that one should deliberately catch Covid-19 first and then take a “single shot” (of which vaccine?) to build the “best immunity”. I look forward to being educated on this topic further.
The issue isn't only who gets ill, it's who passes covid on to others. Delta won't be the last variant, the current vaccines don't last that long. We are acting as if the vaccine is a silver bullet.
The government is between a rock and a hard place in terms of messaging. They have to balance hope with reality and uncertainty. No-one knows how this is going to play out, we're still in the novel part of the novel virus.
There are definitely holes in our covid response, some avoidable, some not. Each wave of pressure brings new learning and new adaptation. This is the world we live in, and even if covid passes, there will be future challenges and climate change means that everyone now lives an uncertain life. The more resiliency and adaptability we build now as a society, the better off we will be.
I like your thinking
The idea that’s slowly growing, in Government and then the seed is planted in the public, is that lockdowns will hopefully be a thing of the past, but this doesn’t necessarily rule out Level 3 measures.
Time will tell.
what's the current thinking on object transmission. Drinks at 2m on the drive might be fine until someone has to handle the wine glasses. Or is it all air and direct contact risk now?
Pretty sure I heard at least one of the TV station “Go To” virology experts say recently that surface transmission wasn’t really all that much of a concern these days. It’s airborne transmission that’s the primary vector.
Doesn’t mean the other usual experts agree with him. (Can’t remember who it was – a male though.)
We tend to be able to detect the more rare "elevator button" exposures simply because there are so few other connections and our contact tracing and genome sequencing are so on ball.
Try that in Texas, who the heck knows precisely who gave someone the covid.
But most hospo workers I've encountered are masked up and gloved/sanitisered up pretty well, so the contamination is minimal as long as you use sanitiser when using any eftpos keypads (if your cards aren't yet contactless).
When we were briefly in L4 in Welly this year, I noticed that the local supermarket staff didn’t seem to be assiduously wiping down all the trolley handles & wire cage tops after each use, as they were during L4 last year.
They were running a very clear system in 2020. You were only permitted to select a trolley from the disinfected trolley racks. Used trolleys went into a separate rack, further away from the doorkeepers, until they’d been sprayed & handles wiped down.
This last time, they were more into encouraging shoppers to use the gels & handsprays before selecting a trolley
Presumably then so long as you take the wine glasses inside and wash them, both your hands and the glasses are then free of the virus.
We could probably do with some reminders about not rubbing our eyes or touching our faces.
Well, a lot of that is covered by basic food hygiene in most places. Controls against rotovirus or what have you also work against coronavirus.
I suspect covid means a lot more small places are now actually wearing gloves as often as they should have been all along (years ago friend of mine overheard her new deli counter boss saying so many more disposable gloves were being used since friend started – she was using the gloves to spec, nobody else was lol).
I commented elsewhere that it seems like people down south are taking precautions more seriously since the Auckland/Wanaka couple thing. Good.
Re wine glasses, I was thinking about the flux of the fuzzy boundaries in different levels. Does socialising on the driveway with a 2m distance increase the spread of the virus or decrease it because it enables people to do the other, more important measures better and for longer (someone might have already said this).
Seems to be that biggest risks sit with indok3r areas with poor ventilation
I suppose what interests me is where the risks are lower and people get slack.
"Anyone have any other ideas?"
No, I think you are right. A more infectious virus just means that some types of interpersonal contact that would be relatively harmless with a less infectious pathogen, become more risky. Your lockdown therefore needs to limit contact somewhat more strictly to be as successful. But in the real world, this strictness has natural limits – it hits boundaries beyond which people will not or cannot comply. And those limits are not uniform across a population but are influenced by people's circumstances, knowledge, expectations, habits, etc.
Good to see some heat being put on at last. There has to be a deterrent. Their own community, now under L4 will be the judge. Hopefully the support, too.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-infected-prisoner-made-four-stops-before-arriving-at-bail-address/HSJ7MZBHHFZOHQ6YYYYIABSVJM/
That article is interesting raises a few questions though, ie if he caught it from the driver who was a family member do the live in the town he was bailed to or did they drive him from Auckland and they returned once he was dropped off… has the driver been tested? and where did they catch it from?
Then the accomodation was no longer available which reads like the family kicked him back out… you have to ask why… were unwelcome 'vistors' coming to the house? If thats the case there's going to be a sting in the tail… worrying really…
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees! I picked it right! KFC from Wednesday morning in Auckland.
I get confused by the KFC reference. Takeaways is merely a means to largely deliver profit to corporate food barons.
Level 3 means nothing different to me and my family. We might be able to walk in a different place, but that is it.
some of us rely on takeaways for nutrition and meals.
Living alone, I’d probably soon expire without a good stock of frozen Tomorrow’s Meals. One soon gets sick of cooking & doing pots, pans & other dishes for one most of the time.
"Level 4 but with KFC " was the meme that was the sum total of national parties contribution to the fight against covid in the first lockdown
Sorry but your KFC got apprehended by the police and destroyed. 🚔😜
“Three senior staff have departed the National Party’s Parliamentary office in recent weeks as the party’s poll ratings have plummeted.
Digital director Francis Till, press secretary Julia Stewart, and head of data and insights Sophie Lloyd have all departed. All have years of experience in Parliament.
A comment on Till’s Instagram suggests he was dismissed rather than leaving the role voluntarily however.”
…
“Till declined to comment, but wrote on his Instagram that he had been dismissed, writing that he had drank from a “poisoned chalice” despite being warned not to.”
…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300411266/national-party-three-senior-staffers-departing-judith-collins-office
… … … …
The Collins Drama continues to play out ….
Oh Gawd !
“National leader Judith Collins has admitted she made a mistake after she was caught on video over the weekend ordering icecream at the counter of a Queenstown café without wearing a mask.
The National leader, who has been quick to point out when others have run afoul of Covid-19 regulations, was joined by deputy leader Shane Reti and local MP Joseph Mooney – both of whom were also maskless – at Patagonia Chocolates on Saturday evening.”
…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-judith-collins-filmed-without-mask-at-queenstown-business/Q4IFBI5SQ2B7UBUVRCIU3QRIPA/
… … … …
Would calling her a “big fat hypocrite” be, umm…just cruel, really, now?
Judith sure seems to have the Reverse Midas touch. 😬
Ice cream wouldn’t melt in her mouth.
So she kicks a storm up do get to Wellington because opposition is important, then fucks off to queenstown for icecream, unfucking believable.!!
look, this is essential work. It's why she left the people in Auckland to face L4 without her.
Shades of National's next full caucus meeting under Collins' command?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V7NlFWh7Sz8
Dreadful grammar, but agree entirely with the sentiment 😀 👍🏼
Whoops ! Too many degrees of separation there.
That’s in relation to bwaghorn’s “unfucking believable.!!”
'Group 3 unvaxxed advised to stay home', Localized lockdown – Suppression?
Wouldn't people around Mangatangi have travelled into Hamilton for work? For elimination, shouldn't the whole of Waikato be in Level 4?
Experts were calling for Auckland to stay in Level 4.
People living in Mangatangi or having visited/worked there are being told to stay home. If there's any outward transmission, new cases will be picked up and managed as per normal. They've had a few days to do contact and location tracing of the known cases, and I would guess they're also looking forward in time to surrounding areas. I also assume we're further ahead of the curve than we were with the original Auckland case that set of this outbreak.
Not sure about that if one of the kids was at school while infectious last week its very possible.it could have been passed on again and with the very short incubation Delta has its very possible someone else has picked it up, become infectious between Thursday last week and todays announcement and travelled into Hamilton for example
But, if the virus is in Hamilton it will spread fast because they are only in Level 2? Isn't it basically impossible to contain Delta with contract tracing in Level 2?
You can't contract trace ahead of time though? I agree with the last part, the source appears to be one of the people who drove him to the bail address.
If delta cases turn up in Hamilton, it won't stay at L2.
I don't know how they manage this, but Mangatangi has a population of 400 ish people. It's different than a city of a million.
I would expect increased public health messaging in those areas eg if you have symptoms stay home and get tested.
They're also doing a huge test drive in the area, which should pick up cases, and those people will then give their movements, which generates close contacts and locations of interest, and those people will isolate and so on.
But, it could already have been circulating in Hamilton for 2 days and there could be x number of cases? But, then you are always behind, when you pick up cases they have already passed it on?
As for contact tracing ahead of time, not sure what that would do to the tracers' workload or the impact on compliance. Or even what models they would use to predict it without swamping tracers and contacters with thousands more people who don't really have a realistic chance of being infected, and half of Auckland being traced for every positive case.
I was saying contract tracing cannot control Delta at Level 2, but your comment made me think about doing it 'ahead of time'. The government should have used something like the United States' Defense Production Act to force companies to become contract tracers.
I also think they should have had a large facility/facilities for isolation or used monitoring. The tracers could isolate what they call 'very close contacts' 2 days ahead.
Oh, I thought that's what you meant by "ahead of time" at 9.1.2.
I think they already use MIQ slots for isolation – like that was why they suspended MIQ during L4?
The thing about predicting close contacts is that most won't actually have been close contacts.The flipside is to up the community testing – saw this morning that everyone in an entire suburb is asked to get tested?
If it's spreading between unknown contacts at L2, there's trouble, sure. But if it is focused in known family or social groups, and we pretty well know the limits of that group, then should be ok even at 2.
Yes, but MIQ capacity is limited. They only quarantine cases and sometimes their household.
Yes, they have been doing that over the past week. I am not sure what the uptake is though. Most people do not stay just stay in their family and social groups in Level 2 though?
We-ell people are creatures of habit. Usual supermarket, usual workplace, usual home. Sure, you might pass someone in the supermarket, but they're far more likely to live a few blocks away than go to Wellington the next day.
So you have problems with individuals who have many, many contacts – salespeople, "essential" politicians trying to keep their jobs, that sort of thing. Then there are the mixing events, like rugby matches and rock gigs.
There's a lot of crossover with network theory – most people only have a few nodes of connection and those are pretty short distance edges. Then there are a few people with a lot of connections, and a few people with "long string" connections so that they have the usual flatmate/work connections but also have say a connect with someone in a different town – e.g. truckies.
So limiting the size of gatherings deals to the nodes with lots of connections, and things like contactless deliveries helps limit the likelihood of the long strings infecting unconnected subnetworks.
But it also illustrates why predictive isolation might be functionally impossible to implement: say I am a close contact of a colleague who went to a supermarket between 4 and 5 pm. So I go into isolation, even though my colleague probably hasn't infected me. But then I went to a supermarket between 7 and 8 pm. The might be an extra 400 people who need to be tracked down and isolated and tested, when their transmission node (me) probably didn't have it anyway. Then there are all my other colleagues as close contacts (and the people they were on the bus with being "close contacts once removed"), etc. The numbers pretty quickly become unmanagable.
Whereas we'd probably all be better off doing it as we are now.
Sorry for my short reply to your detailed post. I was more referring to places like bars, restaurants, shops e.t.c.
sure, but there's a balance to be had between the negative social realities of lockdown and the necessity to get ahead of transmission.
Someone who understands it better than me can maybe talk about the R value of delta at the start of transmission in the community. I thought it was the low R value that enabled Auckland to go from L4 to L3 this week, the value being low because most people getting covid at the moment are already in isolation.
It's not like Hamilton is in L1. L2 does have measures in place to prevent spread of unknown covid in the community, that's the whole point of all of us staying in L2 until the transmission chains are broken.
I'm also guessing that the MoH/government wants to know more before putting Waikato into a higher level, they want to know what they are dealing with.
Distancing is only really followed in hospitality and I suspect masks are only being worn in shops and healthcare.
What do you classify as negative social impacts of lockdown? Yes, they cited the low R-value. However, some of the daily cases are infectious in the community and in Level 3 the chances of passing it on are higher so the R-value may increase.
The main NZ Covid modelling software can now predict likely areas of spread from very localised Stats NZ data, so I imagine they would have run that to set the size of this latest L4 pocket. Nothing is foolproof when humans are involved, however. Excellent contact tracing is essential.
I was very surprised the initial modelling predicted 50-100 and then 100-200 cases given it was Delta with an unknown source and many large exposure events.
Shaun Hendy said this on Monday 23 Aug:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/08/covid-19-disease-modelling-expert-shaun-hendy-warns-nz-outbreak-could-grow-to-1000-cases.html
That was the 'worst-case scenario' a week into lockdown. What I was referring to was the predictions during the first week.
First week of what??
NZ moved Level 4 lockdown on midnight Tuesday 17th of August, so in all reality on Wednesday 18th of August. The date stamp on the linked piece is 23th of August.
Do you know how modelling works? Do you know what it can and cannot do? Do you know how it depends on boundary settings, initial parameterisation, and overall model assumptions? Do you know that useful predictive models include probabilities and confidence intervals?
Yes. I am at university and have done Statistics papers at Stage 1, 2 and 3. What I am saying is you should not take modelling as what is going to happen.
oh that is cool.
Living their best lives.
https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1439304675514273800
In Indiana USA more people died in 2020 than were born, according to Nightly News (Sept 19).