Daily review 20/12/2022

38 comments on “Daily review 20/12/2022 ”

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1. Patricia Bremner 1

   20 December 2022 at 5:56 pm

   We have had some really heavy rain and thunder. It flooded our park and nearby road for the first time in years. Rotorua is on the edge of this, so we are hoping all are safe further inland. This is an intense area of storm and rain. Even the recent flood mitigation work could not cope. A window on our future?
   • Robert Guyton 1.1

     20 December 2022 at 6:07 pm

     Yes.
   • DB Brown 1.2

     20 December 2022 at 10:01 pm

     In Hamilton reports of continuous thunder for an hour. That's a bit apocalyptic aye! Hail the size of ten cent pieces.

     That’s a summer crop wrecking event if it hits gardens.

     NATs have a plan, hear me out – phase out 10c pieces.
2. bwaghorn 2

   20 December 2022 at 5:57 pm

   https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/green-travel/130816398/this-giant-jet-engine-could-pave-the-way-for-an-era-of-lowcost-green-flying

   It says here that a jet engine using bio fuel is not emitting co2 instead it is just recycling it.

   Surely a cow is doing the same,.

   (Keep in mind ypu explaining things to the slowest student in the class)😉
   • Robert Guyton 2.1

     20 December 2022 at 6:05 pm

     I too am slow, but will offer my opinion: it's bullshit.

     🙂
     • bwaghorn 2.1.1

       20 December 2022 at 7:46 pm

       The bit about the bio gas as well?
       • weka 2.1.1.1

         20 December 2022 at 8:06 pm

         a few problems I see in the article.

         1. biofuels have to come from somewhere. If we use land to grow biofuels, will that be regeneratively or via soil and biodiversity killing conventional monocropping? Will it take the place of growing food? How will it stand up to extreme weather events?

         2. the biofuel source material has to be industrially processed. They talk about chemicals but don't say what the impact of that is environmentally. I smell some greenwashing.

         3. the claim is that aviation is only responsible for 2.5% of global emissions (I'd want that fact checked), but it's some neolib accounting. If you or I were to fly to London for a wedding and a holiday, we have to count all the emissions in that trip, not just those from avgas. eg the emissions from other travel on the trip, accommodation, restaurants and takeaways, and so on. Climate bods say the whole emissions % is higher.

         4. flying is a commercial model that relies on increasing flights to make it work economically. This means more airports, runways, hotels, machinery etc, and all their emissions.

         The Ultrafan proposal is trying to create green BAU. It's not that we can't have nice things (for now anyway), it's that there is simply no replacement for the dense energy and energy returned on investment of fossil fuels, and the only place we can get the additional resources needed is from nature. We are really really shit at doing that in a sustainable way. In large part because we insist on living beyond our means.

         Instead of imagining a world where we can fly like we do now, we should be imagining a world where everyone has enough to eat, and the environment is being regenerated where we have degraded it. We might get to fly once every five years to the UK in that scenario, but we won't burnout the planet.
         • joe90 2.1.1.1.1

           20 December 2022 at 10:27 pm

           3. the claim is that aviation is only responsible for 2.5% of global emissions (I'd want that fact checked), but it's some neolib accounting.

           Dave's your man.

           https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David-Lee-122

           https://www.mmu.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/story/12787/
           • weka 2.1.1.1.1.1

             21 December 2022 at 5:10 pm

             I was wondering about the thing of who takes responsibility for international flights.
   • solkta 2.2

     20 December 2022 at 6:18 pm

     How does a cow extract methane from the atmosphere?
     • Robert Guyton 2.2.1

       20 December 2022 at 6:27 pm

       Little-known valve.
     • bwaghorn 2.2.2

       20 December 2022 at 7:46 pm

       Doesn't methane quickly breakdown into co2 and get taken uo by the plants a cow eats ,there by completing the circle
       • solkta 2.2.2.1

         20 December 2022 at 7:54 pm

         As a starting point, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report from 2013 says methane heats the climate by 28 times more than carbon dioxide when averaged over 100 years and 84 times more when averaged over 20 years.

         https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-methane-is-short-lived-in-the-atmosphere-but-leaves-long-term-damage-145040
       • weka 2.2.2.2

         20 December 2022 at 8:10 pm

         In a natural system there's some kind of constantly shifting balance between emissions and sequestration (hence our relatively stable atmosphere and biosphere historically). Humans have interrupted that by creating way too many emissions at the same time as breaking the ecosystems that sequester. This is the whole point of climate change, we pushed things too far and how we have to scale back until things stabilise again. Running industrial dairy en masse on pasture cannot be mitigated. Because we're already too far in debt, and because in itself it's just not sustainable.
       • Robert Guyton 2.2.2.3

         20 December 2022 at 8:28 pm

         "Quickly"?

         How many years, bwaghorn?

         And what effect does that methane have while it's hanging about in the atmosphere?
         • bwaghorn 2.2.2.3.1

           21 December 2022 at 5:55 am

           Not arguing that methane is good.

           Buuuuut

           If you have six million cows magically appear, ypu get 10 years if a rising curve of methane, after 10 years does that curve keep rising or does it flat line?
           • Robert Guyton 2.2.2.3.1.1

             21 December 2022 at 9:41 am

             I think of that methane as a lens that takes years in the making, then is maintained by the cows. It sits there in the atmosphere, burning us up.

             If the cows hadn't made the methane, the lens wouldn't exist and we'd not be being burnt by it.

             I know it's only a model to help visualise/conceptualize, but if you have a better one, I'd like to read it.
             • bwaghorn …

               21 December 2022 at 12:11 pm

               OK ta I'm not locking for ammo just understanding.
3. SPC 3

   20 December 2022 at 5:59 pm

   Earlier this month the government passed legislation

   which mandates a 90 percent reduction in the number of outlets selling the addictive drug – from about 6000 now to no more than 600 by late 2023. It also reduces the amount of nicotine in products

   "Nicotine will be reduced to non-addictive levels and communities will be free from the proliferation and clustering of retailers who target and sell tobacco products in certain areas," Associate Health Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall said.

   National wants to delay the reduction in number of retail outlets selling tobacco

   National Party deputy leader Nicola Willis said on Wednesday while the party supported further reducing the number of Kiwis who smoke, the bill would accelerate the formation of an avoidable "black market".

   "We think denicotisation of tobacco products should occur first, and then the phase-out from retail," she told Morning Report.

   "As it stands, the proposal is to reduce the number of retailers for tobacco products from 6000 to 600 next year. That is… a dramatic reduction, and we worry that there hasn't first been an effort to address the demand for the nicotine in the products.

   Willis said cutting the number of outlets before weaning smokers off their addiction could push them to "getting [cigarettes] from a gang or someone who stole them", instead of a "legal dairy".

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/480738/remaining-tobacco-outlets-might-become-magnet-for-ram-raids-nicola-willis-says

   In a functioning market (such as supermarkets taking online orders and delivering to the home address) the reduced number of allowed retail outlets would result in the on-line order and delivery of packets of tobacco to nicotine addicts (who have acquired smoking behaviour routines/habits based around the addiction) who resisted the transition to vaping or patches.

   So it seems National is really supporting the continuance of the dairy smokes sales turnover interests of businesses while exploiting crime for political purposes.

   And of course the talk of a phase out of retail leading to a black market is nonsense – because on-line delivery continues. There is the matter of the gradual reduction in nicotine levels in smokes (so no immediate bump in demand for higher nicotine level tobacco product).

   Greatly reduced nicotine levels are a key measure in the proposed smokefree legislation to make cigarettes and other tobacco products non-addictive. This should markedly reduce smoking uptake and encourage quitting or reduced consumption, as people who smoke find these cigarettes and tobacco less satisfying.

   The law could temporarily increase illicit tobacco use among some people who don't quit smoking. However, people who smoke are more likely to switch to vaping (widely and legally available in New Zealand) than turn to the illicit market.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/476999/claims-illegal-tobacco-trade-will-boom-in-a-smokefree-nz-are-smoke-and-mirrors-experts-say
   • Robert Guyton 3.1

     20 December 2022 at 6:07 pm

     "Black market" (note the "colour" reference) sounds scary though, so, perfect for the white (not a colour!) Nat-voter!
   • Craig H 3.2

     20 December 2022 at 9:24 pm

     There is currently a black market due to the high excise taxes, and the legislation will continue to allow growing tobacco for personal use, so I'm not really sure why anyone thinks the existing black market would significantly increase in size.
   • Belladonna 3.3

     20 December 2022 at 10:30 pm

     In a functioning market (such as supermarkets taking online orders and delivering to the home address) the reduced number of allowed retail outlets would result in the on-line order and delivery of packets of tobacco to nicotine addicts (who have acquired smoking behaviour routines/habits based around the addiction) who resisted the transition to vaping or patches.

     Given the number of courier package thefts (daily occurrence in our middle-class Auckland suburb), not to mention the legal requirement to ensure that the supply is to people meeting the legal age requirement – this seems like a thoroughly irresponsible method of delivery.

     If you want to argue that tobacco should only be dispensed to 'addicts' – then it would be more effective to supply through chemists (though, I don't think they'd be keen).

     But, of course, all of those without fixed addresses, without GPs, etc – will have a very strong incentive to get their tobacco 'fix' extra-legally. And, I think you radically underestimate the desperation of the tobacco addict – who has little or no interest in low-nicotine products.

     Observationally (using the school my teenage son attends as a benchmark) – the number of teens vaping at school (which is against school rules, just as smoking is) – is really, really high. Far higher than smoking ever was. I'm not sure that this has actually been a health win.
     • SPC 3.3.1

       20 December 2022 at 11:27 pm

       It seems you are running through the National Party talking points in support of maintaining dairy retail supply of tobacco (catering to business greed), despite the associated risk (here crime).

       The idea of rummaging through peoples on-line shopping delivery to find a packet of smokes seems a little far-fetched (when numbers using are going from 10 to 5%). And supermarket shopping delivery can be timed for the evening when people are at home (enabling the ID check).

       By the end of next year – there will be 600, not 6000, retail outlets selling tobacco. The number of crime incidents involving tobacco will subside.

       The same process, albeit more gradual, will occur with liquor outlets.

       Despite the high tax on tobacco there has been little development of a black market, and experts believe that the decline in nicotine levels will make little difference either. Use is now well under 10%, and some will be weened off addiction via the lower nicotine rate and others will switch to the cheaper option of vaping.

       Given the carcinogen in the tobacco method of delivery of the nicotine it has been a health win to transfer youth to vaping (and certainly it has been to reduce adult smoking rates to under 10%).
       • Belladonna 3.3.1.1

         21 December 2022 at 11:09 am

         "Despite the high tax on tobacco there has been little development of a black market"

         This doesn't seem to fit with the narrative that dairies are being ram-raided and having violent thefts because of the presence of tobacco.

         I don't think that these (reportedly) teenagers conducting the thefts are smoking the lot themselves – of course there is a black market.

         Where do you think these '600' outlets will be located? And what level of security do you think they will need (given the presence on-site of substantially higher levels of tobacco than the corner dairy)? And what methods will be used to provide access for homeless or no-fixed-abode people (often heavy smokers)?

         It would be a health win if vaping just replaced tobacco among those already smoking – my point is that vaping has substantially increased nicotine usage amongst teens. You may see that as a health win, I don't.
         • SPC 3.3.1.1.1

           21 December 2022 at 2:35 pm

           The evidence dismissing the development of a black market was the related to offshore sourced tobacco. Not so much at present. Just the legal supply to the reducing in size local market (with some internal re-direction via theft).

           The effect of lowering of nicotine levels is likely to reduce the size of that market further to 5% (as nicotine addicts switch to the far cheaper vaping and others die off).

           Nicotine use is not a health problem (though there are doubts about the safety of some vaping).

           The 600 outlets are likely to be supermarkets (they are set up to prevent ramraids) and the 4 Square type dairies (it's notable so far how few of these attacks have occurred in the provinces).

           The difficulty of the homeless (on the streets) and those with no fixed address (hostels) without cars (or means to order deliveries) accessing their daily needs from further afield than a local dairy or liquor outlet, is akin to that of every variety of addict to a substance. Suppliers will move in, they probably already have. But there is a much cheaper alternative for the nicotine addict – vaping.

           And there is still the option of kiosks (refilled each day) on a trial basis.

           The current situation of 6000 outlets for targeting (fog cannons will just lead to the fast raid) so youth can supply gangs ($20,000 tobacco for $5000 cash and supply to controlled addicts/associates on DPB and into prisons) is far from ideal and National's support for its continuance (while grandstanding on law and order) is absurd.
       • Belladonna 3.3.1.2

         21 December 2022 at 11:15 am

         Oh, and stealing groceries from doorsteps is already a thing. Cigarettes would just be an unanticipated bonus.

         https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/thieves-target-supermarket-grocery-deliveries-left-on-customers-doorsteps/GNJ5RV263UBWYGX3JJL6SLRHKE/

         ATM, it's not a big issue (much easier for the criminals to just walk into the supermarket and walk out with a trolley full of high-end groceries, without paying) – but if there are easily resalable items (cigarettes) included – then door-step theft becomes more attractive.

         And, the idea of any courier driver waiting around to do an ID check is completely ridiculous – you're lucky to get them to drop the package at the door, rather than the letterbox.
         • SPC 3.3.1.2.1

           21 December 2022 at 1:52 pm

           Supermarket deliveries are in house, not by courier.

           And

           A Countdown spokeswoman said since the lockdown, it's had only one report of an online order being stolen and its delivery driver haven't reported any unusual activity.

           "To make sure our customers' orders aren't left unattended for too long, our drivers use an app that sends a text message to let customers know the estimated time of their delivery and a second text to let them know when their order is about to arrive."

           A police spokeswoman said police were aware of the incident, but not aware of any particular trend of grocery theft.

           Given the little more than 5% who smoke targeting grocery deliveries to find a packet of smokes is unlikely.
4. Robert Guyton 4

   20 December 2022 at 6:22 pm

   Scratching that scab…

   “This is not a Māori newsletter; it is a community newsletter and everyone in this community speaks English.

   “I, as well as many New Zealanders am not in favour of giving one cultural group special privilege regarding their language simply because they (falsely) claim first nation status.”

   Editor of Woodville newsletter apologies (sic) for comments on Māori language, culture

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300770392/editor-of-woodville-newsletter-apologies-for-comments-on-mori-language-culture
   • Muttonbird 4.1

     20 December 2022 at 10:08 pm

     It was not my intention to attack or minimise Ms Nepe’s culture.

     – Jane Hill

     Yeah, nah, you fucking liar. That was your only intention.
5. Sacha 5

   20 December 2022 at 9:55 pm

   Rabuka is back https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/300770546/fiji-set-to-get-a-new-prime-minister-dethroning-bainimarama-after-nearly-16-years
   • Temp ORary 5.1

     20 December 2022 at 10:14 pm

     Maybe; Sacha, and with any luck yes. But as a certain Fijian wrote elsewhere today: " I will believe it when I see them shake hands".

     The ousted former prime minister Frank Bainimarama has yet to concede the elections – RNZ Pacific has contacted his FijiFirst party for comments.

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/pacific/481170/fiji-has-a-new-coalition-government-rabuka-to-be-pm
6. millsy 6

   20 December 2022 at 10:00 pm

   Fiji has had 4 coups over the past 35 years. I find it amazing how the major players in each coup (Rabuka, Speight, Bainimarama, etc) seem to a) be prominent in Fijian politics and b) play major roles in each of the coups).
   • Temp ORary 6.1

     20 December 2022 at 10:23 pm

     Millsy; the hands they had in crafting the laws under which they were judged goes a fair way to explaining that. This is from 2013, when the current constitution was adopted:

     In January, the Fijian government scrapped the draft constitution drawn up by an independent commission led by Professor Yash Ghai.

     A replacement version was signed into law in September…

     The new document will replace the 1997 constitution that was set aside by the military regime four years ago {2009}…

     Professor Ghai says while parts of the final version borrow from his work, they are undermined by other alterations or omissions…

     "The whole scheme of a Bill of Rights can come to nought if they declare an emergency [and] there are no safeguards that we had built into the scheme for declaring an emergency.

     "So now they have a carte blanche basically to, to de-supply or set aside the whole Bill of Rights."…

     Professor Ghai says clauses on immunity were included in his draft because of pressure from the attorney-general and the prime minister.

     He says the original version would have forced those seeking immunity to apologise…

     https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-23/an-constitution-expert-yash-ghai-says-he-doubts-if-fiji-pm-has-/5039704
7. Ed 7

   20 December 2022 at 10:20 pm

   Clare Daly’s words of wisdom.

   ”We must recognise our media – strangled by money, more interested in access to power than holding it to account – is anything but free, a water carrier for political and corporate power, dedicated to enforcing the demands of global capital.“
8. joe90 8

   20 December 2022 at 10:48 pm

   Kicking back with the Saudi bros.

   https://twitter.com/ThisIsSoliman/status/1604543495477174272
9. SPC 9

   20 December 2022 at 11:40 pm

   Mush said he would abide by the wish of a poll of Twitter users

   The result was 57.5% wanted him to step down for being Chief Twit.

   https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1604617643973124097%7Ctwgr%5E2b26db9b3be0a1cccfff3d70db1cfb6bafe9056c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Ftechnology%2F2022%2F12%2F19%2Fmusk-twitter-ceo-poll%2F

   Afterwards he said “Twitter would make a change to allow only Twitter Blue subscribers to vote in policy-related polls”

   https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/12/19/musk-twitter-ceo-poll/?
   • bwaghorn 9.1

     21 December 2022 at 5:59 am

     The ego crash landed
   • SPC 9.2

     21 December 2022 at 4:02 pm

     The overextended one

     Space X rocket man (and satellites encircling the globe for communications*), Tesla (electric cars replacing petrol driven ones), AI ("threat to humanity" says Musk and so he goes all in to save us) and defender of free speech* on Twitter.

     Elon Musk said on Tuesday he will step down as chief executive of Twitter after finding a replacement.

     "I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams," Musk wrote on Twitter.

     Musk has himself admitted he had too much on his plate, and said he would look for a Twitter CEO. He said on Sunday, though, that there was no successor and that "no one wants the job who can actually keep Twitter alive."

     Reuters

     https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/technology/2022/12/elon-musk-says-he-will-step-down-as-twitter-ceo.html

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