Daily review 31/01/2022

62 comments on “Daily review 31/01/2022 ”

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1. pat 1

   31 January 2022 at 5:36 pm

   It appears the primary requirement to be a politician is you must be unwittingly fatuous.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018828749/national-party-back-luxon-tells-caucus-retreat
2. swordfish 2

   31 January 2022 at 5:46 pm

   .

   For a bit of contextualisation … I've just rustled up a wee graph of PM Ardern's Approval ratings in the One News Kantar (formerly Colmar Brunton) Poll:

   

   Odd that only Collins' Approval ratings were measured from late 2020 to late 2021 [or, at least, her's were the only figures outlined in the Colmar Brunton Poll reports of Dec 2020, May 2021 & Nov 2021] ..so we don't really know exactly when Ardern's numbers started falling.

   If Ardern's Preferred PM numbers are anything to go by .. then her approval ratings probably first took a bit of a nose-dive in early 2021, then more or less plateaued through mid-2021, before experiencing another, though smaller, fall over the last 4 months. But no way of knowing for sure.
   • Ad 2.1

     31 January 2022 at 6:04 pm

     Much more importantly Swordfish, how is your health?
     • swordfish 2.1.1

       31 January 2022 at 6:46 pm

       Appreciate you asking, Ad … given that a few people have asked both here & on Twitter … I'll probably post a brief note on my blog in the next week or so … don't want to wallow in ostentatious self-indulgence all over The Standard. Lots of other people in the same boat.

       Thanks also to Anker for her support.
       • pat 2.1.1.1

         31 January 2022 at 6:55 pm

         First off good luck…secondly something that im sure you have considered, approval rating, or rather dissaproval rating of 37%, when Nat/Act running at 43%.
         • swordfish 2.1.1.1.1

           31 January 2022 at 10:28 pm

           .

           Cheers, Pat.

           On the polling, bear in mind that the Leader Approval ratings (also Preferred PM) involve the entire sample (ie including the Don't Know element) … whereas the Party Support figures exclude the DKs … so if you re-calculated Party Support based on the entire sample – apples with apples – Nat +ACT wouldn't be too far above 37%.

           But it’s true that there’s usually a minority of Opposition supporters who are happy with popular PMs (Labour voters & Key / National voters & Ardern) … but as PMs begin to polarise the electorate (as most inevitably do) … that minority shrinks into an ever smaller residue.
           • pat 2.1.1.1.1.1

             31 January 2022 at 10:36 pm

             Ah, i see.

             I thought tribalism may have been losing its grip….its not to be.
   • observer 2.2

     31 January 2022 at 7:00 pm

     You've summed up the problem there, Swordfish. It's irregular polling on that approval/disapproval question. The other Qs (party vote, preferred PM) are in every CB/Kantar poll, so reasonable comparisons can be made.

     If it's omitted from the next poll, and then re-inserted at some unspecified future date, then what does it really tell us? For example, it's almost certain that Luxon's "don't knows" will drop considerably, as people form an opinion and say they approve/disapprove. From that you could create a headline "10% more disapprove of Luxon", which might be mathematically correct but of limited value.

     Other democracies have far more frequent polling (obviously, bigger media market = more polls) and so numbers like approve/disapprove for Trump/Biden have a long history and therefore context. One News is really just playing with it.
     • observer 2.2.1

       31 January 2022 at 7:04 pm

       e.g. today, Scott Morrison: 58% disapprove:

       https://theconversation.com/labor-leads-coalition-56-44-and-morrison-slumps-dramatically-in-first-2022-newspoll-175994

       Boris Johnson: 73% disapprove:

       https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
       • Bearded Git 2.2.1.1

         31 January 2022 at 10:28 pm

         Wow 56-44……Albanese has used the tactic of saying little and offering no policies thus letting ScoMo stew in his own juice…it seems to be working
3. Ad 3

   31 January 2022 at 6:40 pm

   Now, I sure don't like Putin, but the Russian Navy has called off the defence drills it was practising off the Irish cost.

   Irish fishermen are now in the media essentially claiming that they've beaten the Russians.

   Is it me or did Putin just do a Khruschev?
   • Stuart Munro 3.1

     31 January 2022 at 7:38 pm

     Nothing so high flown. Putin has woken up to the fact that, though his troll army may whip up a bit of support for his arguments among the deplorables, the serious part of Europe has united against him as it hasn't since the Berlin wall fell. If Germany is pressed hard enough to drop Nordstream, the game he has been playing will prove to be an exceptionally costly failure.

     The Ukraine may win after all – Europe and allies are going to bend over backwards to support them for a year or two.
     • Blazer 3.1.1

       31 January 2022 at 7:54 pm

       You're a great substitute for Red,White +Blue 'logic'…

       France and especially Germany do not want to know about confronting Russia.

       Lavrov has a good point..honour the Minsk agreement of 2015 and ..no problemo.

       Putin has picked his moment perfectly-40% of Europes gas supply comes from Russia…Nordstream 2 cost billions..not just Russia is exposed…does Europe want to..freeze to..death!
       • Stuart Munro 3.1.1.1

         31 January 2022 at 8:26 pm

         Well, the Minsk agreement would have required Russia to respect Ukraine's borders – they got a bunch of nukes in return for that, but of course the rules never apply to Putin.

         Yes, Nordstream is the cheapest alternative for the moment – but Germany lived without it before, and can do so again. If that's the price of avoiding a bellicose post-Soviet border, and the substantial and costly army required to defend it, the benefits of Nordstream would be eclipsed.
         • Blazer 3.1.1.1.1

           31 January 2022 at 8:36 pm

           And you are aware the Minsk agreement guaranteed Ukraine would not join..NATO.
           • Stuart Munro 3.1.1.1.1.1

             31 January 2022 at 10:05 pm

             It hasn't.

             But Russia has repeatedly violated its borders.

             Russia has a habit of lying about Nato promises – prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union there was no formal agreement Nato would not expand eastwards because no one saw the collapse coming – so neither party made formal commitments of that kind.

             As for the Minsk agreement, the full text is here, and it does not seem to contain the promise Russia asserts.
             • mikesh …

               1 February 2022 at 11:34 am

               But Russia has repeatedly violated its borders.

               I don't think so. There seems to be a civil war going on in the Ukraine between ethnic Russians living in the East a hangover from the days when the Ukraine was part of Russia) and ethnic Ukranians in the West. Russia seems to be providing unofficial support to the Eastern regions while the US supports the West with military hardware.
               • Stuart Munro …

                 1 February 2022 at 11:49 am

                 I don't think so.

                 And you would be wrong. Russia's occupation of Crimea, and its lending of debadged regular forces to the 'rebels' in Donbass are clear cut border violations.

                 Real rebels never have tanks – they lack the industrial capacity to produce them.. The Donbass 'rebels' not only had tanks, but close BUK support, with which they shot down MH17.

                 US weapons are only being moved in in substantial numbers now – in response to Russian aggression.
                 • mikesh …

                   1 February 2022 at 2:20 pm

                   Russia's occupation of Crimea,

                   The Russians never occupied Crimea. They had 20,000 troops stationed there by agreement with the Ukranians. When they "annexed" Crimea, they did so without an invasion, after a referendum had indicated overwhelming support for Crimea's return to Russia. The rebels don’t have fighter jets.

                   with which they shot down MH17.

                   The official story has it that the Russians drove a BUK launcher into Ukraine, and to a spot where MH17 would pass overhead, shot it down, and then high tailed it back to Russia. You can tell one that to the marines! Apparently MH17 was flying off course, over a war zone, and there is evidence that it was steered to the point where it was shot down, by Ukrainian fighter jets.
                   • Stuart Munro …

                     1 February 2022 at 3:25 pm

                     MH17 was the subject of a lengthy professional enquiry by, among others, the insurers. Had there been any substance whatsoever to that fairy story, they would have found a way not to pay – that's what insurance companies do.

                     The investigators debunked your supposition in court. A passenger jet shot down with cannon would be riddled with punctures of the calibre of the weapon used. There were no traces consistent with cannon fire. Only the most biased of diehard Putin-dupes still cling to your fiction.
                   • mikesh …

                     1 February 2022 at 9:19 pm

                     I guess you have heard of what is sometimes referred to as a "kangaroo court". And in any case why would Russia have anything to do with shooting down a commercial airliner.
4. Blazer 4

   31 January 2022 at 6:42 pm

   Lydia Ko…so talented,so humble..wins another tournament.
   • Muttonbird 4.1

     31 January 2022 at 7:42 pm

     Speaking of humble, I was listening to Heather Stupidity-Allen interview Fran O on the radio this afternoon.

     Fran O was asked how Jacinda Ardern can turn around her 'plummeting fortunes'. Her advice was, get this, for the Prime Minister to show more empathy and to be a bit more humble.

     I nearly drove off the road.
   • Patricia Bremner 4.2

     31 January 2022 at 11:10 pm

     A wonderful ambassador.
5. Dennis Frank 5

   31 January 2022 at 7:02 pm

   Hipkins did a runner. Went on xmas to avoid facing up to his moral obligation to do a system change. Typical Labour evasion strategy.

   National MP Erica Stanford says Bellis' story is "terrible and it is not an isolated case. So many pregnant women and their partners have been denied emergency MIQ rooms even when the pregnancies are high risk and they have no visa to stay where they are. Hipkins was told. He did nothing," she said in a tweet.

   Stanford attached a letter she sent to Hipkins on October 20, 2021, where she expressed her support for the Baby Bridge Initiative – which was started to help others to lobby the Government to do better by expecting parents – and asked for emergency MIQ application criteria to include pregnant Kiwis and their partners.

   "I am concerned about reports of pregnant women being stranded overseas, unable to secure MIQ space, and the emotional and financial implications this is causing. It's so important that pregnant women and their babies are not exposed to any undue stress," she wrote in the letter.

   "While I understand, and agree with, the need for a strong health response to COVID-19, there needs to be more flexibility and compassion shown to people. Allowing pregnant women and their partners to return to New Zealand through the emergency MIQ allocations would go towards alleviating some of the emotional stress they are under and would provide a safe environment for mother and child."

   Stanford says National MPs are still advocating for pregnancy to be added to the list of criteria to be considered when assessing emergency MIQ applications. "Many pregnant women have been denied emergency MIQ allocations even when their pregnancies are high risk and they have no visa to stay where they are," she told Newshub in a statement on Monday.

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/01/national-accuses-chris-hipkins-of-doing-nothing-for-months-over-allocating-emergency-miq-rooms-to-pregnant-kiwis-overseas.html

   Dunno why Hipkins believes that fronting like a morally-corrupt wimp is a savvy political strategy. Anyone with a moral compass would quickly suss out that a 10% authorisation rate for pregnant overseas kiwi applicants means the system is 90% discriminatory against pregnant women. Any competent credible minister would yank the plug on such a bullshit system before it did any more harm!
   • pat 5.1

     31 January 2022 at 7:38 pm

     I expect the criteria was written with the understanding that the overwhelming majority of pregnant expat women would be in countries with comparable or superior health systems.
     • weka 5.1.1

       31 January 2022 at 7:45 pm

       that was a stupid mistake then, given the second story in the post.
       • Sabine 5.1.1.1

         31 January 2022 at 7:50 pm

         and why would these countries provide free health care to these stranded kiwi women?
         • mikesh 5.1.1.1.1

           1 February 2022 at 11:44 am

           If deliveries are not covered by travel insurance The government, I think, should be prepared to meet the costs.
       • pat 5.1.1.2

         31 January 2022 at 7:52 pm

         Perhaps….i imagine that they anticipated that the few cases that presented could be addressed through other exemptions. We either have a restricted access arrival policy or we dont…..the problem they have is the longer it runs the more desperate some situations become and then they find themselves caught in a cleft stick….is a pregnant woman more worthy of entry than a son or daughter wishing to see a dying parent, or an uninsured person needing life saving health care….the numbers rack up.

         I doubt they thought we would still be here 2 years on….always just a bit longer and the problems will go away.
         • Blazer 5.1.1.2.1

           31 January 2022 at 8:09 pm

           I have been informed that the fastest track back to NZ..is that you are suicidal…if not repatriated.
           • pat 5.1.1.2.1.1

             31 January 2022 at 8:12 pm

             Do you know someone trying to return?
             • Blazer …

               31 January 2022 at 8:13 pm

               Know someone who used it and has ..returned.
               • pat …

                 31 January 2022 at 8:20 pm

                 Ah..I see. Where did the idea come from…an immigration consultant or some such?
                 • Blazer …

                   31 January 2022 at 8:39 pm

                   An aquaintance said this was the recommended course of action for his son in..Australia.

                   Not sure who gave him the advice..no doubt it would be interesting to see if there was a spike in this being the reason.
   • Peter 5.2

     31 January 2022 at 7:47 pm

     I was disappointed Hipkins wasn't in his office right through Christmas and the New Year. As First Minister for Covid-19 Response, Minister of Education, Minister for the Public Service and Leader of the House he should have been up to his eyeballs in work. And last year was a pretty cruise one. If he needed time off he's obviously not up to the task.

     If he was worth his salt he would have realised earlier in the year that people overseas would be screwing their heads off trying to get pregnant and trying to get back to New Zealand.

     Having pregnant women treated like everyone else was cruel. Pregnancy should have meant automatic placement in MIQ. Actually it always used to be "Ladies First" didn''t it? Nah, just kidding.

     The typical, lowest common denominator "He did nothing," bullshit from Stanford will impress the blind, stupid and totally partisan. The MIQ system hasn't been talked about ad infinitum behind doors? Priorities haven't been talked about? Emergency applications haven't been talked about? Pregnancy as a factor hasn't been talked about? Individual cases haven't been talked about? All of those by a stack of people including Hipkins. Nah, Hipkins did nothing,.

     Would pregnant women not being assured of an MIQ placement on coming back to NZ have been a problem if Sanford's party had been in Government? They wouldn't have had MIQ would they? And no closed borders. And everything would have been hunky- dory.
   • Ad 5.3

     31 January 2022 at 9:17 pm

     Check your own moral compass.

     MIQ system has brought 210,000 New Zealanders safely home. And kept 5 million of us safe from harm. And delayed Omicron until we could get the 3rd dose rolling.

     Still, Jaime Ridge says MIQ is just terrible, so let's go with more publicist clicbait.
     • Bearded Git 5.3.1

       31 January 2022 at 10:30 pm

       +1000 Ad
     • Patricia Bremner 5.3.2

       31 January 2022 at 11:13 pm

       Agreed.
     • aj 5.3.3

       1 February 2022 at 10:17 am

       Check your own moral compass.

       Might I suggest that Peter's comment @ 7:47pm last night was satirical. He did say, and my bold:

       The typical, lowest common denominator "He did nothing," bullshit from Stanford will impress the blind, stupid and totally partisan. The MIQ system hasn't been talked about ad infinitum behind doors? Priorities haven't been talked about? Emergency applications haven't been talked about? Pregnancy as a factor hasn't been talked about? Individual cases haven't been talked about? All of those by a stack of people including Hipkins.

       I think he supports your well made point about MIQ.
   • Anker 5.4

     31 January 2022 at 10:26 pm

     Where was Jan Tinetti on this as Minister of Women?
6. Koff 6

   31 January 2022 at 7:28 pm

   First Dog on the Moon (link below) provides some (cartoonish) non-elightenment on treasurers who know nothing about economics (nor do economists!), what to do with millions of dud RAT tests (maybe tsmithfield would be interested in this snippet), why cruelty is better than communism and how climate change can benefit capitalism. Instead of Oz, insert NZ equivalents of course!

   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/31/josh-frydenberg-reckons-everyone-has-billions-of-dollars-saved-up-so-do-your-duty-and-buy-stuff
   • Sabine 6.1

     31 January 2022 at 7:48 pm

     You have billions of dollar saved? Wow. I am impressed. s/
     • Koff 6.1.1

       31 January 2022 at 8:12 pm

       Think I only managed to save an "illion" but will do my best to support the economy by spending it. I guess I could buy a dud RAT test for next time I have to use public transport in Brisbane, and get infected by a non-mask wearer, but I can't find any to buy!
   • Drowsy M. Kram 6.2

     31 January 2022 at 8:04 pm

     "I'm sure the economy will bounce right back unless it doesn't need to nobody knows."

     So Frydenberg, the Australian Treasurer, reckons everyone has billions of dollars saved up. Priceless – thanks for the laugh.
     • pat 6.2.1

       31 January 2022 at 8:24 pm

       They do…except its not everybody…its a particular cohort that dont tend to spend locally so are of limited use to the wider economy….thats the lie of averages for you.
       • Drowsy M. Kram 6.2.1.1

         1 February 2022 at 11:08 am

         Yup – 'billions' is a Claytons' average.
7. weka 7

   31 January 2022 at 7:35 pm

   Pretty good explainer on The Detail on vaccines and boosters, how they differ, and why they matter during the omicron outbreak.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/the-detail/story/2018828127/boosting-our-chances-of-dodging-disease
8. Blazer 8

   31 January 2022 at 7:48 pm

   Nationals get together …unity and the message..'we are not just about money…we care about people'!-Shipley's ..believe it or not'!

   Couldn't get ex Tory leader David Cameron as expected and settled for a pep talk from..George Osborne.

   Too funny!I guess the Natz realise not many in NZ know or care about Cameron's involvement in the Greensill Capital debacle.

   Suxon mirrors Key's faux concern-(visit to McGhecan Close) …and a feature of penis head is…after he criticises the Govt, when asked what he would do…'would not be drawn on giving an..answer'.

   How inspiring.
   • Patricia Bremner 8.1

     31 January 2022 at 11:16 pm

     Thanks for the laughs Blazer.
   • mikesh 8.2

     1 February 2022 at 11:53 am

     Don't all politicians "care about people"?. That's what they are always telling us. Including some with “long noses”.
9. Ad 9

   31 January 2022 at 9:05 pm

   The Socialists triumph in the Portugese snap election, cementing a fat Parliamentary majority. Looks like a similar bounce to New Zealand's 2020 election.

   Portugal election: Key takeaways as Socialists cement power | Euronews

   But same question will be asked as of Ardern: other than COVID, what else have you got in the tank?
10. Muttonbird 10

    31 January 2022 at 9:41 pm

    Omicron is mild, eh?

    Record high Covid deaths and thousands of hospitalisations are raising alarm about the ability of NSW hospitals to cope with the current scale of the pandemic.

    Shadow health minister Ryan Park told Sydney radio station 2GB on Monday the health system was "in absolute crisis and at breaking point".

    "We cannot simply have a health system that goes on like this, because there is too much strain on our health workers," Park said.

    Sunday was the deadliest day for NSW during the pandemic, with 52 deaths. Of those, 31 were aged care residents.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-concerns-in-nsw-over-rising-death-rates-hospitals-ability-to-cope-with-surge/VI3JRI725ERZOIZ4WND2GRIZFU/

    Please NZ government, stick to your plan to slow it down and most importantly do not listen to the opposition, business interests, and Mike Hoskings under any circumstances.
    • Blade 10.1

      31 January 2022 at 11:14 pm

      Too late. Tomorrow morning Mikey will deliver the righteous sword of truth upon this hapless government.

      Hosking has Jacinda running scared.

      Peter Williams asked Robbo a question that Robbo considered conspiracy theory stuff. That was another excuse for a great escape by Robbo.

      Then we get this tonight from our liberal leaning media

      Maiki Sherman: Quote:

      ''Nothing quite says out of touch with those in poverty…''

      Any reputable news organisation would have this waste of space looking for another job, But no, we need commentary added to the news to send voters in the right direction.

      https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/01/31/national-party-to-have-a-new-focus-on-poverty-luxon/
      • Patricia Bremner 10.1.1

        31 January 2022 at 11:19 pm

        So they go to Queenstown not Manukau.
        • Blade 10.1.1.1

          31 January 2022 at 11:38 pm

          Who the hell would want to go to Manukau? That would be disingenuous tokenism from a Tory government. National need to be like Labour.

          Labour uses a barge pole to keep the stench of farming and business from their back doorstep, while at the same time regulating them.

          National does the same with poverty and the beneficiary class.

          It's simply politics… and the discrimination both major political parties bring to the table,
      • Peter 10.1.2

        1 February 2022 at 7:07 am

        If Sherman said that she's made an appropriate observation.

        If the Labour Party had their caucus get together in Queenstown the same comment would have been made – a million times. The word "optics" would have been common. The decision would have been slated on virtually every forum. Ardern personally would have been blamed.

        Of course the cost of flying everyone south would've been thrown in too.
    • Patricia Bremner 10.2

      31 January 2022 at 11:17 pm

      Muttonbird.
    • mary_a 10.3

      1 February 2022 at 11:46 am

      @ Muttonbird (10) … 100% concur with your summation.
11. pat 11

    31 January 2022 at 10:37 pm

    "Downing Street appears likely to drop its policy of dismissing frontline NHS and care staff in England who refuse Covid vaccinations, a minister has strongly indicated, after nursing and care organisations called for this to happen.

    A decision would be made “in the course of the next few days”, according to Simon Clarke, the chief secretary to the Treasury. He said the lower severity of the Omicron variant of Covid did “open a space” for the policy to be reversed.

    The apparent imminent U-turn came as the Royal College of Nursing argued that both the change in severity from Omicron and the number of NHS vacancies meant the mandatory vaccination policy should be dropped.

    The National Care Association said it would also welcome a change of policy, while warning that many unvaccinated care staff had already lost their jobs in the run-up to the 1 April deadline."

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/31/covid-mandatory-jabs-nhs-staff-england-omicron-u-turn
    • Drowsy M. Kram 11.1

      31 January 2022 at 11:51 pm

      Will be interesting to see if there's support for a similar U-turn here in a couple of months. NZ (3.3 total cases per 1000; 0.011 deaths per 1000) and the UK (240 total cases per 1000; 2.3 deaths per 1000) nurses currently face very different pandemic environments and challenges, against a background of global workforce shortages.

      I believe that our government’s efforts to prioritise public health outcomes during this pandemic will appeal to a majority of healthcare workers.

      https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/global-nursing/post-covid-19-global-nursing-workforce-challenges-too-big-to-be-ignored-24-01-2022/

      https://www.nursingcouncil.org.nz/NCNZ/News-section/news-item/2021/5/Guidance_statement_COVID-19_vaccine_and_your_professional_responsibility.aspx

      https://www.england.nhs.uk/
12. Shanreagh 12

    1 February 2022 at 11:18 am

    Will be interesting to see if there's support for a similar U-turn here in a couple of months.

    A 'u turn' you say rather than a response ie 'a change' following greater knowledge, advice from scientists etc that have been the reasons for changes by this Govt all along in the Covid response. You may want to frame it as a U turn ie a pejorative framing and get all and sundry righties on side.

    With all of the work the Govt has done on Covid and all the changes to the way we live we have had nothing to suggest these are cast in stone. When we go to a new normal is this going to be cast as U turn?

    So looking at a different situation the end of compulsory military training…..that was a U turn? How long in history can we go back pejoratively framing something as a U turn. There is still some legislation in force dating from 1908. When this is changed will this be described as a U turn too?

    https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1908/0081/latest/whole.html

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