Democracy in Iran? Not yet

The Iranian election was clearly rigged. Formerly quite democratic by Middle East standards. Iran’s been going backwards fast.

There have been violent protests in Tehran and other cities. Put down by security forces. They’ve cut off phone links out of the country.

The protestors are on the right side, generally. Pro-democracy, less religious, progressive. They’re also the wealthy elite out for their own interests. Would be better than a bunch of Dark Ages theocrats running the show though.

Best of luck to the protestors. Obviously worried the government a bit. But they won’t triumph. There’s no sign of a vital split in the security forces. The soliders are drawn from the poor. They still love Ahmadinejad because he’s looked out for them.

There’s one iron-cast rule in these uprisings. As long as the State/Government maintains its monopoly on violence (and the will to use it) they can’t be overthrown. Without military power, the protestors have nothing. Ahmadinejad can crush them at will. Pity.

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