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Dim-Post tracking poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:35 am, March 27th, 2015 - 58 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , ,

Danyl at Dim-Post does great work with his tracking poll (average of polls), yesterday updated for the first time since the election. Check out the post for notes on the poll and discussion, but the take-home message is:

dim-post-traking-oll

58 comments on “Dim-Post tracking poll ”

  1. Colonial Rawshark 1

    So, Labour support always goes up from just *after* each election. Not very useful when you think about it. The Greens appear to be in a long term flat line – some within that party will be thinking that moving to the right will be the answer to their prayers.

    • fisiani 1.1

      Fairly grim reading for the Left. Some will make a case that if you add 2nd, 3rd and 4th you MIGHT pip National. Trouble is 4th does not want a bar of 3rd and 3rd is thinking of cosying up to 1st. the Greens cannot move to the right with their present constitution. Always remember that Winston turns 70 in two weeks and will not contest 2017 as when that Parliament ends he will be 75 but actually given his current significant health problems he will probably not live that long. The next leader of NZF could be Tracy Martin, Ron Mark or at a long shot Shane Jones. None of these wants Greens near power.

      • You do know the next election is three years away, right?

        • ghostwhowalksnz 1.1.1.1

          Unless a few more national MPs have personal problems. A guarantee some would say that someone will hit the skids.

          Thats what Key and Joyce are really worried about.

          Keys top drawer is full of petty or major scandals waiting to explode in his face

        • alwyn 1.1.1.2

          He would certainly seem to in this case. After all he does say that Winston “will not contest 2017 as when that Parliament ends he will be 75″.
          That does seem to imply that he realises that the next election is in 2017, doesn’t it? The election is due then, not ” three years away”. We are, after all, more than six months into the term. Doesn’t time fly?
          I have no comment on the validity of his assertions about Winston’s plans or state of health though.

        • fisiani 1.1.1.3

          Eh! It’s not. 3 years from now is 27th March 2018. The next election has to be held before then

    • Puckish Rogue 1.2

      If the Greens concentrated on stopping the amount of farm conversions to diary, the srying up of the rivers, the cleaning up of the rivers, pest control in the bush and stated they could work with National then yes they’d get more votes (I would) and would get into government

      • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1

        Another RWNJ demanding that the Greens only be what they want the Greens to be rather than allowing the Greens to be what they choose. Basically, typical oppressive BS from the political right.

        • Puckish Rogue 1.2.1.1

          I’m not demanding what the Greens be, I’m saying what would make me vote for the Greens and I’ll wager theres tens of thousands that think like me

          • Lloyd 1.2.1.1.1

            You would only vote Green if you had both a clear understanding that the economy is a subset of the environment and you understood the long term consequences of not understanding that. Intelligence would also help.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 1.2.2

        National wants more of a doormat for partners..
        Greens would be a headache if working with labour ( sure , grief works both ways) , so national is out of the question.

        Remember, Greens are more to left of labour, so moving to the centre still leaves a long way to cuddle up with national ( but closer to the labour party)

        • Puckish Rogue 1.2.2.1

          Well they’ve been around for 25 years and never been in government and people make jokes of Dunne, Act, the Maori Party but they’ve all been in power…albiet small power but a little power beats no power

    • saveNZ 1.3

      @CR
      The Greens appear to be in a long term flat line – some within that party will be thinking that moving to the right will be the answer to their prayers.

      Nope, a message from voters is being sent. It was first sent to Labour at the General Election. It is now being sent to National in Northland. It is also going to be sent to Len Brown next council elections.

      The message in my mind, is not to move to the right. It is a move to the left and to stop grandiosing around on the world stage, business functions or in Wellington and actually get their MP arses out there, with credible candidates and credible policies to work for their country and constituents. NOT big business or US interests.

      Shape up or Ship out. Stop F***king selling off NZ, stop spying on us, stop ignoring us, start doing your job! Because if you don’t, that safe seat or vote, is not safe any longer.

      If you are left in name only (Labour, Len Brown) then sooner or later your voters are going to do a recap, and if you have failed to live up to the brand, you will not be getting that ‘safe’ vote any longer.

      The memo is just being sent out in Northland by the voters to stop the fire sale of NZ. The only thing to save National in Northland now, is some sort of election scam, (which I would not put past them). So I am tentatively crossing my fingers.

      • Olwyn 1.3.1

        I largely with you SaveNZ, except rather than framing it purely in left/right terms, I would frame it as the difference between politicians wanting to govern and people wanting to be represented – a split that Winston has tapped into in Northland. Felix made an apt comment on this yesterday.

        Open mike 26/03/2015

  2. At Danyl pointed out, Labour has now won back all the support it lost from making Cunliffe leader. Had that change not happened, I still reckon Shearer would be prime minister now in coalition with Greens and NZ First.

    • Puckish Rogue 2.1

      You’re a brave man to predict what Winstons going to do

    • Lanthanide 2.2

      Sure, if we knew that Cunliffe would be smeared in the media for irrelevant things he did a decade ago and comments taken out of context and repeated ad-naseum, then sticking with Shearer would have been the better choice.

      Hindsight is 20/20. At the time, Shearer was clearly underperforming – bringing dead fish to Parliament wasn’t good judgement.

      • Puckish Rogue 2.2.1

        Oh please the Cunliffe was an experienced politician who knew what he was doing, why should National not take advantage of him shooting himself in the foot

        “fixer-upper” indeed

        • Skinny 2.2.1.1

          Oh for goodness sake Cunliffe was suspect from the start, being religiously touched. I always viewed him as flakey, often not knowing if he was Martha or Arthur. People saw through this, admittedly not helped by his caucus or the MSM.

          • Puckish Rogue 2.2.1.1.1

            I always found it interesting that, on paper, the Cunliffe was more in-tune with the people of NZ ie hunting, fishing and playing rugby then John Key

            I’m surprised more wasn’t made of this point of difference

          • fisiani 2.2.1.1.2

            His comment about being ashamed to be a man was truly cringe worthy. I reckon that was the final nail in his coffin.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 2.3

      National would have had the same dirty tricks no matter who was labour leader.

      When you have no real policies, you concentrate on attacking the leader of the opposition.

      It works in reverse too, but Key is largely a teflon PM. But ask Tony Abbott about the target on him front and back ( and sides !!)
      Elsewhere the media make it part of their job to criticise government policies, here the media are part of nationals attack strategy

      • greywarshark 2.3.1

        @ ghostww
        And as a side point, about Abbott’s recent behaviour, it illustrates how desperate politicians cam turn into savage dogs bearing their fangs and ready to bite even little children. Abbott apparently has some plaint that government can’t be expected to supply services to people who don’t live in ghettos, and stick to their familiar land to which they tangata whenua.

    • Anne 2.4

      At Danyl pointed out, Labour has now won back all the support it lost from making Cunliffe leader.

      We all know you have some kind of personal vendetta against Cunliffe Hooton, and he didn’t lose the election for Labour. First and foremost, It was the Dirty Politics of the Right that caused the damage – the Donghua Liu media attack based on lies, innuendo and false analogies being the most prominent.

      • Te Reo Putake 2.4.1

        Plus being tainted by association with the toxic I/MP brand and failing to put up convincing policies. It’s weird that Goff went to the voters with a more lefty platform than DC did.

        • Anne 2.4.1.1

          Yep. That was a deliberate ploy and most of the major media players went along with it. There never was an association… just a fantasy put about by the DP mob and media. I will say one thing though. Many lefties (including me) did have sympathy for the grossly over-the-top treatment of Dotcom. He was – and still is – being hounded out of house and home by an astonishingly toxic bunch of establishment types both here and in the US.

      • Sanctuary 2.4.2

        it isn’t a vendetta, it’s a desperation to keep the neo-liberal consensus locked in. Just look at how hysterical Farrar gets when anyone genuinely questions the TPPA – these guys are 1980s, unreformed, neoliberal fanatics. Hooton KNOWS Shearer is for the status quo, he does not know with the same certainty that Andrew Little is. Hence, he’ll talk up the Labour right at every opportunity.

        • Anne 2.4.2.1

          If you ever heard him last year on the Monday morning political programme with Kathryn Ryan you would assume it was a vendetta Sanctuary. At each session he would manage to twist the topic under discussion into a mentally-charged rave against Cunliffe.

      • ankerawshark 2.4.3

        Anne 1000+

        What is your issue against Cunliffe Hooton??? Tall Poppy syndrome???

    • Skinny 2.5

      Oh what nonsense Hooton, Shearer has about as much charisma as wannabe MP Mark Osborne. In this modern age to be a PM you need broad appeal. Helen Clark had it just like Key has/had. And just like Clark, Key is suffering from third term blues.

      I didn’t think much of your NBR piece, actually I think my mate Sel Manning article was much more indepth and revealing. I was having a chat with Act NL candidate Robin Grieved, appears Acts distaste for National is quite wide spread within their ranks. Reading some of your spray tends to back this up.

      Now I have a question you can answer here or on Plunkets show. If Key can’t salvage and pull off a win in Northland, and considering the full implications of Sabin resigning is about to come out, is Key going to move on from national politics soon or will Collins push him out?

      • Puckish Rogue 2.5.1

        Does, in your opinion, Little have the charisma of Clark/Key?

        • Skinny 2.5.1.1

          Yes by 2017 he will have carved a credible leaders platform. In his favour, and after the deception of Key I think Little’s stocks will rise significantly, Kiwi’s like a straight shooter and that is exactly what you get with Little. Note he makes very few mistakes and is very able to ‘think on his feet’ the same could not be said of Shearer or Cunliffe who were guilty of major foot in the mouth moments.

          • Puckish Rogue 2.5.1.1.1

            Cool and thanks for the reply, I agree that Little will probably be the next PM of NZ

            This whole thing that we can’t speak of is something that NZ won’t stand for so Little wins

            The real question is who will be with Labour, Winston or the Greens

            I’m assuming the Maori Party will side with Labour next election

            • Skinny 2.5.1.1.1.1

              Nor should they, and the blood bath aftermath will be huge, the public have already got the subliminal message over dirty politics imbedded in their brains, couple the very unpopular spying issue, and really it is a death spiral.

              Key has only one option too survive this, hang Joyce he is Key’s biggest liability. He used Sabin as a battering ram to weaken Collins power within the party. Key is guilty of of agreeing to go along with it, probably little more. They all will be shitting their pants that Sabin doesn’t seek police protection if he outs them. Honestly I would leave the country and seek shelter in a banana republic where I couldn’t get extradited, such will be the fallout. You could call me a conspiracy theorist, but the ducks are lining up.

              • Puckish Rogue

                I agree with most of what you say but i don’t know that it’ll go as far as moving to another country

                But there will be a shitstorm of epic proportions (and yes I’m looking forward to how it plays out)

          • Kevin 2.5.1.1.2

            Yes he does. Because Little IS the average kiwi bloke that John Key tries so hard to be.

        • saveNZ 2.5.1.2

          In my view the voter don’t care as much about the leader of the party as much as the media do.

          Clark didn’t have much charisma, she was honest, intelligent and hard working and had good policies.

          In my view that is what qualities the leader of opposition needs to take down the National party.

          Being charismatic without the others will not do it.

          Or smart, hard working and wily like Winston.

          But it is clear the public are sending a warning message to both Labour and National these days. Days of safe seats are long gone.

          Are they listening?

    • Te Reo Putake 2.6

      You are probably correct that Shearer would have become PM, Matthew, but his own failure to control his own supporters or to get Cunliffe to back off doomed him before he got the chance. We simply didn’t look fit to govern under him or Cunliffe. We do now, though.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 2.6.1

        You have this ‘Rebbeca of Sunnybrook Farm’ attitude to any medium sized group of people working together.

        In opposition , control is a fine thing. What else can you do. Get the Cheka in ? Maybe a show trial of naming and shaming.

        MPs undermine the leadership all the time , more subtly when they are winning.

        • Northsider 2.6.1.1

          TRP, Shearer was a walking target due to his total unsuitability and the behaviour of the Robertson selected team “supporting” him.
          Cunliffe was not on his case: we, members and bloggers, were furious at the shambles arising from Shearer’s selection, the centre right messaging and the operational melt down. The damage done in that period was not fixable overnight. We still need to be wary that Roberson, and his puppets, does not do to Little what he did to Shearer and Cunliffe.

        • Northsider 2.6.1.2

          ghostwhowalksnz: re MPs undermining leaders all the time. I do not agree.

          It is possible for MPs to work together in a truly trusting way and to be a great winning team. The Scottish National Party is a perfect example of this. They are highly likely to take control of Westminster in May by holding the balance

          Watch Alex Salmond being interviewed last Sunday.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XdJYx0Psl8

      • Olwyn 2.6.2

        Shearer was parachuted into a safe seat during Goff’s time. He was chosen to replace Goff after two and half years of near-invisibility in parliament, with the blessing of Matthew Hooton and several other commentators from the right. If he had become PM, it would have mainly been the result of funds coming in with a view to keeping his opponents out. The cost of this would have been either continued party in-fighting or the abandonment of the last shreds of Labour’s claims of representing a constituency. I am glad it didn’t happen.

        And we should remember that we would still be stuck in that bitter impasse if Cunliffe had not stood his ground after a bruising election and forced a membership vote.

    • Northsider 2.7

      Labour lost it with the voters when Robertson pushed the inexperienced and woefully inadequate Shearer into leadership, to keep the seat warm while he built his own profile. That is where the rot started and Cunliffe was given a hospital pass.

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