Dire warnings of the bleeding obvious

Written By: - Date published: 7:57 am, December 1st, 2016 - 14 comments
Categories: capitalism, class war, housing, uncategorized - Tags: , , , , ,

Hey first time home buyers – National has a warning for you:

Don’t take on too much debt, govt warns homeowners

The government is again warning first home buyers to be careful and not to take on too much debt.

That shrieking sound you hear is the bitter laughter of first home buyers. They know all about debt. They know that our houses are the least affordable in the world. Of course they know that if they are lucky enough to find a place somewhere, then the debt is going to be too high.

The latest caution comes as new Reserve Bank figures show the average loan for a first home has surged 43 percent in just the last two years.

In October 2014, the average loan for a first home was just over $270,000 – last month it hit $390,000.

And interest rates have started rising again.

The Reserve Bank is getting on board with the warnings too:

Huge mortgage-to-income discrepancies prompt warning from Reserve Bank

The amount of money being borrowed to buy houses at five and six times a person’s income has grown significantly in the last two years – a move which the Reserve Bank says could threaten the resilience of New Zealand’s banks.

Won’t somebody think of the banks!

Despite a slow-down in Auckland property price growth in the last six months the bank said the vulnerabilities in the housing market had increased.

“Despite some recent softening, house price growth in Auckland remains high at 9.3 per cent in the year to October, and Auckland’s house price-to-income ratio, at 9.6, is among the highest in the world.”

Yes, in part because our incomes are too low.

Though they may flatten, I don’t see house prices falling. In part because this government is hooked on the immigration that gives the economy the illusion of growth.

So basically these warnings are telling the average first home buyer: “don’t do it, give up”.

14 comments on “Dire warnings of the bleeding obvious”

  1. Ad 1

    The absurdity of this is so stark in the Reserve Bank yesterday seeking power to have actual Loan to Income powers. Those who don’t earn x won’t be able to borrow y from a bank. That’s a pretty harsh instrument if you are trying to buy your first house.

    But it’s a whole bunch more honest than the government just intoning “Be Careful ….” like some scolding parent before the fall they know is about to happen.

    The legacy this government is leaving in housing is depriving an entire generation of owning the one asset that keeps this country afloat.

    • Draco T Bastard 1.1

      The legacy this government is leaving in housing is depriving an entire generation of owning the one asset that keeps this country afloat.

      You do realise that it’s the owning of houses that’s tearing the entire economy and society apart don’t you?

  2. Pat 2

    “Though they may flatten, I don’t see house prices falling. In part because this government is hooked on the immigration that gives the economy the illusion of growth.”

    and yet….

    “And interest rates have started rising again.” and “Yes, in part because our incomes are too low.”

    think those two statements are in conflict

  3. DH 3

    You can’t blame first home buyers for anything IMO. I can still remember trying to buy a house in a rising market. You get a sense of panic that gradually begins to overwhelm you. You look at ads, inspect properties, constantly count your finances and all the while houses are selling under your very nose and prices are creeping higher and higher… and higher. Panic begins to turn to desperation and at some point you’re driven to make a decision that may turn out to be a rash one or a wise one but ultimately it’s do or die. For most people it’s not as if they have a lot of choices.

  4. jcuknz 4

    Anybody considering getting into the housing market and risking their future welfare when interest rates rise and they go bankrupt should read this ….
    Molly 3.2
    16 June 2016 at 12:52 pm Here on The Standard.

    Housing policy omnishambles rolls on

    I think the 25 thousand is a optomistic figure but a lot better than ten or twenty times that.
    In easier times my wife and I built our family home on one income as I gather others have done … and today we enjoy the benefits of our efforts.
    But folk I suspect want to move into a home like they were brought up in without appreciating it is the result of many years slavery to a bank.

    • jcuknz 4.1

      This link is worth looking at for a first home
      The major expense would be getting a section to park on.

      • DH 4.1.1

        You look to be a little out of touch there jcuknz. The areas of concern are largely the cities and the chances of finding an affordable section you can put a tiny house on are pretty remote. Where there are plenty of sections there’s usually plenty of affordable houses available too… just not many jobs.

        DIY isn’t what it used to be. High on the list of concerns is your insurance & liability, everything has to be compliant and the average DIYer doesn’t know who to ask about compliancy let alone what’s required on even simple jobs. DIY doesn’t save people as much as it used to and the risks are considerably higher.

        • save nz

          @ jcuknz, The council will be prosecuting you in an instant if you try to put on anything alternative and affordable …. a yurt…. cabin… what have you.

          The government and councils would prefer you to be homeless and your kids in state care or pushing you into $1200 a week overcrowded motel room than actually let someone live somewhere they don’t approve of i.e. have the necessary permits and money for the council.

          Being alternative is part of our culture. A very interesting film to watch… don’t make housing choices some cookie cutter western ideal set in stone.

          Are these people bad parents? Not in my view.

          And that is why I’m not so keen on Healthy houses. I know why Greens and Labour want to push it through (for health outcomes) but we have to work with what is available in this country, what people can afford and what people feel culturally and emotionally comfortable with.

          Someones brick and tile suburban mansion and the enormous mortgage to go with it, is another person’s prison. I don’t think the government or council should criminalise housing choices for people.

          You hear about people building their houses for peanuts out of recycled goods, however everything in this country is set out to destroy anyone being able to do that.

  5. save nz 5

    In short you can kill 29 people Pike River style with all the necessary permits and that is ok, poison and potentially kill many other with town water supply issues (Havelock North), and have a structurally unsound building come down in an earthquake (CTV building) killing many more, but because they all had the ‘right permits’ no matter how ineffectual, nobody is prosecuted.

    Nor does it seem to be a criminal act to erect apartments of leaky buildings which could be potentially killing people (the mould, structure etc) – the most you may suffer is bankruptcy.

    But the second you erect a yurt, live (by your own choice) in a garage, build your own house out of recycled goods you find that this is not allowed for your own good. You will be prosecuted as a criminal.

    So that is our ridiculous RMA and legal system of enabling those that have power to kill people and disempowering those that want to get out of the poverty trap and build their own homes (because that might be dangerous to society) or live entirely or cheaply off the land.

    • greywarshark 5.1

      I remember a man in NZ who lived a very simple life off the land. He grew pumpkins from his own seed and swopped them for meals, lived in a caravan on his own. The IRD chap couldn’t find a way to fault him, he didn’t accept government benefits and had no financial dealings at all for years on end, just barter.

      • save nz 5.1.1

        I’d live to see that simple non commercial lifestyle more legally allowed by government.

        One reason that Labour and Greens are not winning over the hearts and minds of all Kiwis on their housing policy is that it, a) superficially sounds like Natz policy when talked about by MSM, b) it is coming across as interfering with homeowners and c) they need to be careful they don’t come across like Christians ‘saving’ the children from their undesirable upbringing. We all know from history that ‘saving’ is not what happens when you force a group to be colonised into another ideal of living.

        It’s not like there is a plethora of cheap, healthy homes out there to move to so the choice is not there. There is even less choice now with all the earthquakes – but nobody seems to be condemning the government/EQC/council for not having quickly organised decent housing options in a timely manner for those that need them. Instead there is a push for homeowners to do what the government won’t do themselves. The MSM loves to run housing stories about bad rentals or First home owners, to take away the spotlight from other housing issues. Campbell Live used to do a lot of work on Chch and the lack of progress until they were taken off air.

        Not everyone wants to (or can afford to) live some perfect healthy home ideal. I understand policy comes from Labour and Greens wanting to do the right thing by all Kiwis but there are other implications and they should wait till they get into government before working out what to do about housing.

        Housing is a can of worms that is not easily solved in a sound byte or spreadsheet and it’s being intensified as an issue by immigration and natural disasters.

  6. Greg 6

    It’s a mess from record homeless to record debt .did anyonesee some property apprentice coach Hong Fong telling first home to use the parents homes .
    I just thought you prick suck in new buyer while he will off load s his properties and save his skin .gen x. Ant y have been screwed over there should be
    rage at what has went down.

  7. AB 7

    Prevent anyone from buying a house that they aren’t going to live in. Give everyone who owns a house that they don’t live in 2 years to sell it. Kill off the investor class.

    • ropata 7.1

      +1 i like your thinking

      No more foreign ownership. Stop unsustainable immigration. Enforce and strengthen tenants rights. !00% tax on capital gains — except for genuine improvements to the property (inflation adjusted). Land Value tax. Financial transaction tax. Huge fees applied to building of baches that sit empty all year.

      A government department dedicated to *properly* regulating the building industry. No more greedy profit grabbing by timber/gib/materials suppliers. No more McMansion developments. No more shoddy apartment complexes. No more leaky homes. No more half baked plans going bankrupt and stealing the savings of desperate investors.

      The Gnats could solve the crisis overnight if they wanted to. There are empty houses and other buildings all over Auckland. They just have to declare a national emergency and then compulsorily acquire the spare properties for Housing NZ. Could be done before Christmas, and the properties fitted out before next winter.

      That would be the best Christmas gift for 1000’s of kiwi families living in cars and garages. Our national shame.

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