Happy Labour day everyone.
This is a good day for progressives to reflect on the recent election result and to plan on countering the rather draconian plans this Government has talked about and to start planning for the next progressive Government.
My father, who was an ardent Trade Unionist as well as a Labour Party activist used to say “don’t get angry, get organised”.
He spent a lifetime in the Union Movement and in the Labour Party. My family have been steeped in the Trade Union movement for generations and we have all had grilled into us the importance of understanding history and planning for the future.
So now is a good time for all progressives to reflect on what happened at the last election and to plan for the next one.
So what happened?
Clearly the national mood was against us. But the effect was particularly magnified in the Auckland Istmus and out west. In South Auckland the drop in turnout was cataclysmic. In the Istmus and West Auckland the results were unprecedented. I never thought I would see the election day where we lost Mt Roskill and New Lynn and Te Atatu and almost lost Mt Albert.
I believe that Labour will hold Mt Albert and gain back Te Atatu and possibly New Lynn on specials. But these are seats where Labour should be banking significant numbers of party votes, not struggling to hold on the electorate vote.
Why did it happen?
The effects of Covid linger and Auckland’s extended lockdown did not help. The cost of living crisis clearly had its effect as did fuel prices and high interest rates. It does not matter how many times you explained the national causes of the problems or the number of lives saved by the lockdown people were over it. And in Auckland the January floods and the continuous wet weather have made us all grumpy.
Derek Cheng in this article highlights that the slip in support and the reversal of the right track wrong track started during the second Auckland lockdown. And the Parliamentary sit in only emphasised the feeling that things were changing for the worse.
And National had a plan. A badly costed plan that was panned by everyone who could count and who actually looked at it but it had a plan and kept talking about it. And its voice was amplified by significant donations from very wealthy people afraid that their privilege may be affected.
I don’t know why they worried.
Because Labour’s offering by contrast was timid. There were no transformative policies. GST off fresh fruit and vegetables and no tax reform excited no one.
And areas where Labour had a good story to tell, such as in climate change, child poverty, the construction of new homes and the covid response were only timidly talked about. We should own those gains, not be timid about them.
The Greens did not perform as well as I thought. Winning seats is fine but it is the party vote that is all important and I thought they would get an extra couple of percentage points in support over what they achieved.
Special votes should change things. I expect us to pick up at least three electorates and overall improve our seat count by one. This is important because without that extra seat National and Act could have a field day.
So where to from here?
Out west I thought the local campaigns were all good and volunteers excelled themselves. The issue was there were not enough of us and the same people were doing more and more. Strengthening the membership is vital. We can match National and its uber donors when we are united and strong. When we are weak their resources can be too much.
Leadership clearly needs to be talked about. I agree with Neale Jones that unity is vital and the factionalism from ten years ago needs to be avoided at all costs.
But the discussion is warranted and is necessary.
What I think should happen is that Chris Hipkins should seek a mandate from the caucus and the membership and affiliates and vacate the leadership so that a leadership contest is triggered.
The candidates can then tour the country and speak to the membership and we can have a real contest of ideas and may the best person win. The membership will be energised and we can have a deep and meaningful discussion about the future of the Party and of the country.
Such a contest is not to be feared. Labour received a bump in the polls after each of the two leadership contests.
We do need to have a discussion about what needs to be done in the future both for the party and for the country. And we need to work out what it is that we stand for.
To all party members now is not the time to get angry with the result but to get organised. And to get prepared to start running campaigns against all the counterproductive and negative changes that National and Act are currently working on.
In my activist career I have witnessed three previous changes from a Labour Government. In 1978 the party won a pluarility of votes, only the vagarities of FPP stopped us from being returned. The 1993 result was lost by a whisker and in 2011 while National picked up a seat its coalition partners lost six seats. One term governments are possible. But you have to be prepared and well resourced.
Now is the time to start getting organised to making this Government a one term National government. And for Labour to work out its future.
Powered by WPtouch Mobile Suite for WordPress