web analytics

DPF and Whale make me happy!1!

Written By: - Date published: 12:57 pm, February 4th, 2009 - 24 comments
Categories: blogs, crime - Tags:

There’s been a story that I have been dreading having to respond to because it is so low, dishonest, and despicable. Truth be told, I expected to see it by now on Whaleoil or Kiwiblog. And I have to say I’m pleasantly surprised. In not touching this story, they’ve proven themselves a step above The Truth*, which I certainly wouldn’t have credited of Whaleoil.

The story to which I’m referring goes like this: the weren’t no murders in January after there were all them murders last January and the January before. Looks like having a National government has stopped murders, and all Labour could do was blame the weather. Yay, National!

Of course, it would be absolutely beyond the Pale to take political advantage of tragedies like that, but it’s not necessarily something one wouldn’t expect nonetheless.

It would also be a fundamentally dishonest argument. There were at least three homicides in January. That’s fewer than the 6 in January 2006, 9 in January 2007, and 11 in January 2008 (all solved, incidentally). But that doesn’t mean anything in a statistical sense. Over the past 126 months, there have been an average 5.7 homicides a month (I exclude attempted homicides. For some reason, Stats includes that in its homicide category). When you have a large population (4.25 million individuals) and a very small chance of something happening to them (0.0001% per month), you are going to get large and random variations. In August 2007, for example, there were 2 homicides, the next month there were 11 but nothing had changed in the real world. In the last two years for which records are available, 6 months had the same number as this January or fewer. Despite some unfortunately statistically inevitable higher months, the consistent trend in homicides per capita is down.

Even if the variation wasn’t entirely random, and it is, the idea that a government that hasn’t even done anything significant yet could claim credit for it is just sad.

So, good on youse, David and Cameron, for not going there and surprising me on the positive side. Long may it continue. 

*(yesterday, I saw, didn’t read, an article on this in The Truth during what I swear was the first time ever I picked up the rag ) (source for all stats)

24 comments on “DPF and Whale make me happy!1!”

  1. TightyRighty 1

    Must of been a lack of full moons in those months.

  2. toad 2

    It will be the Fire At Will Bill SP!!! All the bludgers and other assorted toerags who normally feature in the homicide statistics will be so excited about their enhanced job prospects that they won’t have even thought about killing anyone since that went through.

  3. while there certainly is a tendency for more violent crime to occur in warmer months than colder ones for a whole lot of reasons, there’s no scientific evidence that lunar cycles are linked to crime… and anyway King should have known she would be mocked by our media even if she was right.

  4. Editor 4

    Homicides are just like attempted homicides but the victim died. The main difference is in the outcome not the act/crime.

    I also thought the full moon myth had been debunked.

  5. editor. That’s a pretty crucial difference though. And one could equally say that many homicides are just like assaults but the victim died.

    The reason I don’t include homicides in the stats I use despite Stats putting them under the homicide catagory is that when most people talk about the number of murders or killings, they’re thinking the number of people intentionally and unlawfully killed by another person.

  6. The Baron 6

    This is a bit pathetic guys. You can’t really make a story out of how you thought your opponents would run with the stupid, pointless argument and then they didn’t. Wow, what a stunning insight.

    Is this a bit of sour grapes over the time the Standard tried to argue that a massive increase in violent crime was nothing to worry about? Now that was something worth talking about, because the layer of gloss you tried to put on that really was low, dishonest and despicable…

  7. The Baron. No, it’s what it purports to be. I’m actually geninuely glad to see they didn’t sink to that level even though the option was wide open and obvious,and the kind of argument they’ve run before.

    And, it’s reported violent crime.

  8. lukas 8

    But SP, I thought you never read their blogs?

  9. Tim 9

    I don’t get it, why even bother writing this post?

    First you say
    The story to which I’m referring goes like this: the weren’t no murders in January after there were all them murders last January and the January before.

    Then you say
    It would also be a fundamentally dishonest argument. There were at least three homicides in January.

    Still, it goes to show that even when Kiwiblog and Whale don’t sink low enough for you, you’re prepared to plumb the depths regardless.

  10. Matthew Pilott 10

    Tim,

    You are stupid. Well that last comment is; far be it for me to judge your general intelligence based upon one comment, but I have to say that’s not a promising sign. I would attempt to explain you you why this is the case, but it would be lost on you, and I’m pretty sure everyone else will be able to see it, so I don’t need to explain for their benefit.

    Better luck next brain.

  11. toad 11

    Tim , I thought it was one of SP’s better posts – demonstrated a sense of humour I hadn’t seen from him before. Which is why I responded in kind (the second comment on this thread), but I suppose you don’t get it either and think it’s stupid too.

  12. lukas 12

    Toad, notice the lack of the humor tag at the top of this post? I believe that SP was likely deadly serious with this post

    [it’s with humour, hopefully, and it’s meant to poke a bit of fun at myself, david, and whale. but the underlying issue is serious – i was really expecting one of them to run this argument because they’ve done similar posts before, and it really is refreshing to be wrong. also, you might like to consider a tactical aim of this post, a first-strike, if you will. SP]

  13. BLiP 13

    Some egg said:

    ” . . . The Standard tried to argue that a massive increase in violent crime was nothing to worry about? . . . ”

    The thing to worry about is that people are still bamboozled by the difference between reported crime and actual crime. I feel sorry for these people; they must feel unsafe in their own homes. The real irony, though, is that their fear has been created by the cynical manipulation of statistics by the politicians they vote for and their own unwillingness to seek out the facts.

    Then again, perhaps they don’t feel unsafe at all; their primary emotion is probably bliss.

  14. toad 14

    Um, does Th Standard have a “humour” category option (not a tag, that’s different)?

    Dunno – I know we haven’t at g.blog where I post, so maybe I should sort that as well lukas, just so readers know when something is meant to be funny (even if they don’t think it is)!

    Humour, I have learned, is very definitely something that is in the eye of the beholder. Some of the things Cameron Whale thinks are funny totally revolt me.

    At the same time, Julie at The Handmirror objected to this. Now, on most issues I agree with Julie, but in this case I thought it was hilariously funny and she thought it was offensive.

    Humour is a strange beast.

    [lprent: Yep there is a humour category. Generally we find that the commentators of the right find difficulty understanding why we put things there. But on the other hand it is difficult to undertand some of the humour at the blogs of of the strange and troubled man-children attitudes of the right. Munster, BB, monkey, bloated, etc. ]

  15. lukas 15

    SP- Fair ’nuff

  16. mike 16

    Its all part of the feel good mood Nationals win has cast over the country.
    SP pissing in Whales pocket, Waitangi celebrations set to be the friendliest for decades, the greens wanting to cut a deal with the tories…its beautiful

  17. Michael 17

    Murder is the premeditated, unlawful killing of another person.
    Manslaughter is the unlawful killing of another person.
    Homocide is the killing of another person.

    All murders are homocides, but not all homocides are murder. For instance, the killing of Halatau Naitoko was a homocide, however there has been no murder or manslaughter charge as the police officers actions appear lawful. (although extremely tragic.)

  18. dave 18

    Steve, this post just goes to show you’re lower than you make out WhaleOil and DPF to be. So why do you bother reading their blogs every day? When you start writing good posts I may start reading your blog instead of being referred there by DPF once in a blue moon.

  19. So you wrote a post about what Whale and Kiwiblog didn’t post about?

    This could catch on!

  20. lprent 20

    Clint – it already has.

    I spent last year listening to interfering dickheads trying to say what we should be writing about here. About Winston is the main one that comes to mind.

    I’m pretty sure that I heard your name in that lynch mob.

  21. higherstandard 21

    Heh I almost miss Winston (not really) …… his reply about keeping the Ministerial car was classic Yes Minister stuff

  22. Julie 22

    Ok, I’ll bite, what did you find funny about the Judith Collins cartoon lprent? (and thanks for the linky love too!)

    [lprent: I was thinking about the one at The Linesman. Made her look like the Joker in the Dark Knight that I got dragged to at iMax the other day. Seems kind of appropriate. She does remind me a sociopath.]

  23. Julie 23

    What’s the one at The Linesman? The one I was writing about seemed to just be a straight forward “she’s so fat she could crush those boy-racer cars just by sitting on them” which didn’t strike me as a) witty or b) original. Genuinely interested in your thoughts.

  24. Julie 24

    Oh sorry I’ve just realised I should be biting at toad, not lprent, sorry!

    Captcha: organize with (!!)

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Significant investment in Raukūmara Pae Maunga to prevent Raukūmara forest collapse
    An iwi-Crown approach programme to restore the Raukūmara forest on the East Coast of the North Island and boost employment opportunities for whānau, particularly rangatahi/young people, will receive $34 million funding, Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage has announced. “Raukūmara Pae Maunga is a partnership with Te Whānau-ā-Apanui, Ngāti Porou, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • New partnership central to delivering more Māori housing
    Government agencies and partners are working closer together to provide more Māori Housing through the Te MAIHI o te Whare Māori – the Māori and Iwi Housing Innovation Framework for Action (MAIHI). MAIHI is a kaupapa Māori approach that drives a system change to give effect and impact on Māori ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Pacific Ministers meet to discuss regional economic priorities
    The Pacific Islands Forum Economic Ministers Meeting (FEMM) begins today and will focus on the major economic and social impacts of COVID-19 on the Pacific.  FEMM is an important congregation of Economic Ministers and senior officials from around the region, and for the first time, the annual meeting will be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Formal apology and payment to George Nepata
    Cabinet has approved a formal apology and ex gratia payment to former soldier George Nepata, announced Defence Minister Ron Mark. This payment is to recognise the New Zealand Defence Force’s failure to provide Mr Nepata with a safe system of work in April 1989 when, as a result of an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Report into Iain Lees-Galloway’s expenditure
    A report undertaken by Ministerial Services into Iain Lees-Galloway’s ministerial expenditure has found no evidence of any inappropriate transactions or spending. Ministerial Services undertook a line by line review of all his expenditure, including staff and spouse expenses for the period 1 January 2019 to 30 June 2020.  “I commissioned ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Managed isolation charges to start 11 August
    Managed isolation charges for returnees will come into force from 12.01am Tuesday 11th August, after they passed their last cabinet milestone today, Housing Minister Megan Woods said. “The new charging system balances the rights of New Zealanders to return home and helps reduce pressure on the managed isolation and quarantine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Update on New Zealand and the Cook Islands travel bubble
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Henry Puna have welcomed the completion of phase one in the establishment of a travel bubble between New Zealand and the Cook Island. Negotiations on the text of an ‘Arrangement to Facilitate Quarantine-Free Travel ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • One-stop ‘jobs and training’ shop goes live
    The Government has launched a new online, phone and onsite service to help New Zealanders connect to a range of employment support and products for workers and businesses affected by COVID-19, announced Minister of Education Chris Hipkins and Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni. Connected.govt.nz is a one-stop-shop for jobseekers, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • MSD security guards to be paid Living Wage
    Security guards contracted to the Ministry of Social Development will be paid at least the Living Wage from next month supporting the Government’s commitment towards fair pay and employment conditions, announced Minister for  Social Development Carmel Sepuloni.   “MSD was  among the first government agencies to pay its employees the living ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New strategy to ensure nature thrives
    The Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage today launched Te Mana o te Taiao, the Aotearoa New Zealand Biodiversity Strategy - a way forward that envisions Aotearoa New Zealand as a place where ecosystems are healthy and resilient, and people embrace the natural world. “Many of New Zealand’s plants and wildlife species ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Provider Languages Fund will support Pacific Wellbeing approach
    “Pacific languages, cultures and identity are essential to the health, wellbeing and lifetime success of our Pacific peoples and their communities in Aotearoa. The strength and resilience of Pacific Aotearoa is not only vital to their own prosperity but integral to the prosperity of all New Zealanders, and is particularly ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • COVID-19: More funding for schools and boost to construction sector
    ·       $38 million to help schools cover unexpected costs related to COVID-19 ·       $69 million upgrade for online learning ·       $107 million contingency funding to support school construction suppliers facing additional costs due to the lockdown. The Government is releasing $214 million from the COVID-19 response and recovery fund to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Stay safe on the tracks – Rail Safety Week
    Despite the Government installing safety upgrades around the country, people should still take care around rail crossings, said Transport Minister Phil Twyford launching Rail Safety Week. Phil Twyford said installing safety infrastructure is crucial, but we are encouraging people to be more careful around trains too. “We’re making good progress ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government backs Manawatū social housing project
    The Government is providing a cash injection to help Palmerston North City Council complete a programme to provide 78 social housing units for vulnerable tenants. The $4.7 million to build 28 units in the Papaioea Place redevelopment comes from the $3 billion set aside for infrastructure in the Government’s COVID-19 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Major funding boost for Predator Free Banks Peninsula
    A pest free Banks Peninsula/Te Pātaka o Rākaihautū is one step closer with a $5.11 million boost to accelerate this project and create jobs, announced Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage in Canterbury today. “This is a game changer for this ambitious project to restore the native wildlife and plants on Ōtautahi/Christchurch’s doorstep ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Major investment for indoor sports in Hawke’s Bay
    A Government grant of $6.4 million will expand the Pettigrew Arena in Taradale with new indoor courts of national standard. “The project is likely to take 18 months with approximately 300 people employed through the process,” Grant Robertson said. “The expansion will increase the indoor court space up to 11 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New infrastructure for Far North tourist town
    The Far North tourist destination of Mangonui is to receive Government funding to improve waterfront infrastructure, open up access to the harbour and improve water quality, Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones has announced. A total of $6.5 million from the $3 billion set aside in the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government remains committed to Women’s Cricket World Cup
    The Government has re-affirmed its commitment to supporting the hosting of the ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup, which the ICC has delayed from 2021 to 2022. “This is obviously a disappointing decision for cricket players and fans around the world and for the White Ferns and their supporters here at ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Green light for Te Awa River Ride in $220m nationwide cycleways investment
    Cyclists and walkers will now have a safer way to get around Taupō, Tūrangi, and between Hamilton and Cambridge, with funding for shared paths and Te Awa River Ride, Associate Minister of Transport Julie Anne Genter announced today. “The Te Awa River Ride is the latest part of massive growth ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Six major ‘shovel-ready’ cycleways funded in Christchurch
    Six major cycle routes will be completed in Christchurch thanks to funding from the Government’s investment in shovel-ready infrastructure as part of the COVID-19 recovery Associate Minister of Transport Julie Anne Genter announced today. $125 million will be invested to kick-start construction and fund the completion of the following cycleway ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Police facilities for Whanganui
    Plans are underway for a brand new state-of-the-art hub for Whanganui’s justice and social agencies, following confirmation the ageing Whanganui Central Police Station is to be replaced. Police Minister Stuart Nash has announced $25 million in new infrastructure spending to improve facilities for the wider community, and for staff who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Relativity adjustment for Waikato-Tainui and Ngāi Tahu
    An adjustment payment has been made to Waikato-Tainui and Ngāi Tahu under the relativity mechanisms in their 1995 and 1997 Treaty of Waitangi settlements, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little announced today. The latest payments to Waikato-Tainui and Ngāi Tahu are $2,700,000 and $2,600,000 respectively to ensure the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Auckland rail upgrades pick up steam
    Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Transport Minister Phil Twyford today kicked off the start of the Auckland NZ Upgrade Programme rail projects which will support over 400 jobs and help unlock our biggest city. Both ministers marked the start of enabling works on the third main rail line project ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • PGF support for Wairoa creates jobs
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) investment of $3.78 million in Wairoa will create much needed economic stimulus and jobs, Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. PGF projects announced today include: $200,000 loan to Nuhaka Kiwifruit Holdings Ltd (operated by Pine Valley Orchard Ltd) to increase the productivity ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Public and Māori housing to trial renewable energy technology
    Tenants in public and Māori housing may be benefiting from their own affordable renewable energy in future – a fund to trial renewable energy technology for public and Māori housing has today been announced by Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods and Associate Minister for Housing (Māori Housing) Nanaia Mahuta. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • $2.7m for Hokianga infrastructure
    Hokianga will receive $2.7 million to redevelop four of its wharves and upgrade its water supply, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has announced. Far North District Council will receive $1.8 million from the Provincial Growth Fund for the work on the wharves. “The work will include the construction of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New fund to support housing and construction sector
    A $350 million Residential Development Response Fund is being established to support the residential construction sector and to minimise the economic impact from COVID-19, the Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods has announced. “The Residential Development Response Fund will help to progress stalled or at-risk developments that support our broader housing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government investment to boost Auckland’s community recycling network
    As part of a broader plan to divert waste from landfill, the Government today announced $10.67 million for new infrastructure as part of the Resource Recovery Network across the Auckland region. “This key investment in Auckland’s community recycling network is part of the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group ‘shovel ready’ projects ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Te Papa transformation starts at Cameron Road
    The Government is investing $45 million in the first stage of an ambitious urban development project for Tauranga that will employ up to 250 people and help the region grow, Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford announced today. Phil Twyford says the funding has been allocated out of the $3 billion ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Low-emissions options for heavy transport a step closer
    Getting low-emission trucks on the road is a step closer with investment in infrastructure to support hydrogen vehicles, the Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods has announced. The Infrastructure Reference Group has provisionally approved $20 million for New Plymouth company Hiringa Energy to establish a nationwide network of hydrogen-fuelling stations. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New training centre to upskill workers
    A new trades training centre to upskill the local workforce will be built in the South Waikato town of Tokoroa through funding from the Government’s COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund, Education Minister Chris Hipkins and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones have announced. The Government will contribute $10.84 million from ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Subsequent children legislation to change
    The Government has agreed to repeal part of the Oranga Tamariki Act subsequent children provisions, Minister for Children Tracey Martin announced today. “There are times when children need to go into care for their safety – the safety and care of children must always be paramount,” Minister Martin said. “But ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Funding to expand mental health support for Pacific peoples
    A $1.5 million boost to grow primary mental health and addiction services for Pacific peoples in Auckland, Hamilton and Canterbury will lead to better outcomes for Pacific communities, Associate Health Minister Jenny Salesa says.  Pasifika Futures has received funding to expand services through The Fono, Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest by ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Funding boost for sustainable food and fibre production
    Twenty-two projects to boost the sustainability and climate resilience of New Zealand’s food and fibres sector have been announced today by Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. The $18m funding will deliver practical knowledge to help farmers and growers use their land more sustainably, meet environmental targets, remain prosperous, and better understand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Mature Workers Toolkit launched on business.govt.nz
    Employment Minister Willie Jackson welcomes an initiative that assists employers to get mature workers into New Zealand small businesses. The disadvantages that older people face in the workplace was highlighted in the whole of Government Employment Strategy.  In order to address this, a Mature Workers Toolkit has been developed and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Trans-Tasman cooperation in a COVID-19 world
    New Zealand and Australia reaffirmed today the need for the closest possible collaboration as they tackle a global environment shaped by COVID-19, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said. “In these challenging times, our close collaboration with Australia is more vital than ever,” said Mr Peters. Mr Peters and his Australian ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Pike recovery efforts now in unexplored territory
    The recovery and forensic examination of the loader driven by survivor Russell Smith means the underground team are now moving into an area of the Pike River Mine that has not been seen since the explosion, Minister Responsible for Pike River Re-entry Andrew Little said. “The fifth and last robot ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government confirms CovidCard trial to go ahead
    The Government has confirmed a community-wide trial of CovidCard technology as it explores options for COVID-19 contact tracing. “Effective contact tracing is a vital part of the COVID-19 response,” Minister of Health Chris Hipkins said. “While manual processes remain the critical component for contact tracing, we know digital solutions can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Enhanced process for iwi aquaculture assets
    The government is proposing changes to aquaculture legislation to improve the process for allocating and transferring aquaculture assets to iwi. Fisheries Minister Stuart Nash has introduced the Maori Commercial Aquaculture Claims Settlement Amendment Bill to Parliament. It proposes a limited new discretionary power for Te Ohu Kaimoana Trustee Limited (ToKM). ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Bill introduced to fix National’s Family Court reform failures
    The Minister of Justice has today introduced the Family Court (Supporting Children in Court) Legislation Bill – the next step in the ongoing programme of work to fix the failed 2014 Family Court reforms led by then Justice Minister Judith Collins.  The Bill arises from the report of the Independent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago