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DPF and Whale make me happy!1!

Written By: - Date published: 12:57 pm, February 4th, 2009 - 26 comments
Categories: blogs, crime - Tags:

There’s been a story that I have been dreading having to respond to because it is so low, dishonest, and despicable. Truth be told, I expected to see it by now on Whaleoil or Kiwiblog. And I have to say I’m pleasantly surprised. In not touching this story, they’ve proven themselves a step above The Truth*, which I certainly wouldn’t have credited of Whaleoil.

The story to which I’m referring goes like this: the weren’t no murders in January after there were all them murders last January and the January before. Looks like having a National government has stopped murders, and all Labour could do was blame the weather. Yay, National!

Of course, it would be absolutely beyond the Pale to take political advantage of tragedies like that, but it’s not necessarily something one wouldn’t expect nonetheless.

It would also be a fundamentally dishonest argument. There were at least three homicides in January. That’s fewer than the 6 in January 2006, 9 in January 2007, and 11 in January 2008 (all solved, incidentally). But that doesn’t mean anything in a statistical sense. Over the past 126 months, there have been an average 5.7 homicides a month (I exclude attempted homicides. For some reason, Stats includes that in its homicide category). When you have a large population (4.25 million individuals) and a very small chance of something happening to them (0.0001% per month), you are going to get large and random variations. In August 2007, for example, there were 2 homicides, the next month there were 11 but nothing had changed in the real world. In the last two years for which records are available, 6 months had the same number as this January or fewer. Despite some unfortunately statistically inevitable higher months, the consistent trend in homicides per capita is down.

Even if the variation wasn’t entirely random, and it is, the idea that a government that hasn’t even done anything significant yet could claim credit for it is just sad.

So, good on youse, David and Cameron, for not going there and surprising me on the positive side. Long may it continue. 

*(yesterday, I saw, didn’t read, an article on this in The Truth during what I swear was the first time ever I picked up the rag ) (source for all stats)

26 comments on “DPF and Whale make me happy!1! ”

  1. TightyRighty 1

    Must of been a lack of full moons in those months.

  2. toad 2

    It will be the Fire At Will Bill SP!!! All the bludgers and other assorted toerags who normally feature in the homicide statistics will be so excited about their enhanced job prospects that they won’t have even thought about killing anyone since that went through.

  3. while there certainly is a tendency for more violent crime to occur in warmer months than colder ones for a whole lot of reasons, there’s no scientific evidence that lunar cycles are linked to crime… and anyway King should have known she would be mocked by our media even if she was right.

  4. Editor 4

    Homicides are just like attempted homicides but the victim died. The main difference is in the outcome not the act/crime.

    I also thought the full moon myth had been debunked.

  5. editor. That’s a pretty crucial difference though. And one could equally say that many homicides are just like assaults but the victim died.

    The reason I don’t include homicides in the stats I use despite Stats putting them under the homicide catagory is that when most people talk about the number of murders or killings, they’re thinking the number of people intentionally and unlawfully killed by another person.

  6. The Baron 6

    This is a bit pathetic guys. You can’t really make a story out of how you thought your opponents would run with the stupid, pointless argument and then they didn’t. Wow, what a stunning insight.

    Is this a bit of sour grapes over the time the Standard tried to argue that a massive increase in violent crime was nothing to worry about? Now that was something worth talking about, because the layer of gloss you tried to put on that really was low, dishonest and despicable…

  7. The Baron. No, it’s what it purports to be. I’m actually geninuely glad to see they didn’t sink to that level even though the option was wide open and obvious,and the kind of argument they’ve run before.

    And, it’s reported violent crime.

  8. lukas 8

    But SP, I thought you never read their blogs?

  9. Tim 9

    I don’t get it, why even bother writing this post?

    First you say
    The story to which I’m referring goes like this: the weren’t no murders in January after there were all them murders last January and the January before.

    Then you say
    It would also be a fundamentally dishonest argument. There were at least three homicides in January.

    Still, it goes to show that even when Kiwiblog and Whale don’t sink low enough for you, you’re prepared to plumb the depths regardless.

  10. Matthew Pilott 10

    Tim,

    You are stupid. Well that last comment is; far be it for me to judge your general intelligence based upon one comment, but I have to say that’s not a promising sign. I would attempt to explain you you why this is the case, but it would be lost on you, and I’m pretty sure everyone else will be able to see it, so I don’t need to explain for their benefit.

    Better luck next brain.

  11. toad 11

    Tim , I thought it was one of SP’s better posts – demonstrated a sense of humour I hadn’t seen from him before. Which is why I responded in kind (the second comment on this thread), but I suppose you don’t get it either and think it’s stupid too.

  12. lukas 12

    Toad, notice the lack of the humor tag at the top of this post? I believe that SP was likely deadly serious with this post

    [it’s with humour, hopefully, and it’s meant to poke a bit of fun at myself, david, and whale. but the underlying issue is serious – i was really expecting one of them to run this argument because they’ve done similar posts before, and it really is refreshing to be wrong. also, you might like to consider a tactical aim of this post, a first-strike, if you will. SP]

  13. BLiP 13

    Some egg said:

    ” . . . The Standard tried to argue that a massive increase in violent crime was nothing to worry about? . . . ”

    The thing to worry about is that people are still bamboozled by the difference between reported crime and actual crime. I feel sorry for these people; they must feel unsafe in their own homes. The real irony, though, is that their fear has been created by the cynical manipulation of statistics by the politicians they vote for and their own unwillingness to seek out the facts.

    Then again, perhaps they don’t feel unsafe at all; their primary emotion is probably bliss.

  14. toad 14

    Um, does Th Standard have a “humour” category option (not a tag, that’s different)?

    Dunno – I know we haven’t at g.blog where I post, so maybe I should sort that as well lukas, just so readers know when something is meant to be funny (even if they don’t think it is)!

    Humour, I have learned, is very definitely something that is in the eye of the beholder. Some of the things Cameron Whale thinks are funny totally revolt me.

    At the same time, Julie at The Handmirror objected to this. Now, on most issues I agree with Julie, but in this case I thought it was hilariously funny and she thought it was offensive.

    Humour is a strange beast.

    [lprent: Yep there is a humour category. Generally we find that the commentators of the right find difficulty understanding why we put things there. But on the other hand it is difficult to undertand some of the humour at the blogs of of the strange and troubled man-children attitudes of the right. Munster, BB, monkey, bloated, etc. ]

  15. lukas 15

    SP- Fair ’nuff

  16. mike 16

    Its all part of the feel good mood Nationals win has cast over the country.
    SP pissing in Whales pocket, Waitangi celebrations set to be the friendliest for decades, the greens wanting to cut a deal with the tories…its beautiful

  17. Michael 17

    Murder is the premeditated, unlawful killing of another person.
    Manslaughter is the unlawful killing of another person.
    Homocide is the killing of another person.

    All murders are homocides, but not all homocides are murder. For instance, the killing of Halatau Naitoko was a homocide, however there has been no murder or manslaughter charge as the police officers actions appear lawful. (although extremely tragic.)

  18. dave 18

    Steve, this post just goes to show you’re lower than you make out WhaleOil and DPF to be. So why do you bother reading their blogs every day? When you start writing good posts I may start reading your blog instead of being referred there by DPF once in a blue moon.

  19. So you wrote a post about what Whale and Kiwiblog didn’t post about?

    This could catch on!

  20. lprent 20

    Clint – it already has.

    I spent last year listening to interfering dickheads trying to say what we should be writing about here. About Winston is the main one that comes to mind.

    I’m pretty sure that I heard your name in that lynch mob.

  21. higherstandard 21

    Heh I almost miss Winston (not really) …… his reply about keeping the Ministerial car was classic Yes Minister stuff

  22. Julie 22

    Ok, I’ll bite, what did you find funny about the Judith Collins cartoon lprent? (and thanks for the linky love too!)

    [lprent: I was thinking about the one at The Linesman. Made her look like the Joker in the Dark Knight that I got dragged to at iMax the other day. Seems kind of appropriate. She does remind me a sociopath.]

  23. Julie 23

    What’s the one at The Linesman? The one I was writing about seemed to just be a straight forward “she’s so fat she could crush those boy-racer cars just by sitting on them” which didn’t strike me as a) witty or b) original. Genuinely interested in your thoughts.

  24. Julie 24

    Oh sorry I’ve just realised I should be biting at toad, not lprent, sorry!

    Captcha: organize with (!!)

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