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Dr Shane is in trouble

Written By: - Date published: 11:51 am, October 18th, 2020 - 27 comments
Categories: election 2020, national, nick smith - Tags:

I don’t think the bad news is over for National.  I will go out on two limbs here and predict that they will lose Whangarei and they will also lose entitlement to a seat.  Maureen Pugh’s career will be over.  And Nick Smith will also be gone.  He should have campaigned harder for the party vote.

Reti will be back but via the list.

Why do I say this?

Whangarei is on a knife edge with Reti ahead by only 162 votes.

Special votes tend to break left.  Younger people and poorer people tend to enroll later or need special votes because they move around more frequently.

Last election Reti’s share of the electorate vote faded slightly from 46.8% to 45.2% once special votes were counted.  The Labour candidate’s share went up from 18.4% to 18.8%.  A similar movement this time will cause Reti’s lead to evaporate.

Similarly with the party vote the tendency is for Labour’s share to improve and National’s to go down.  Last time Labour’s went up from 35.8% to 36.9% and National’s went down from 46% to 44.4%.

I have made a few guesses and put the figure through the Electoral Commission formula and the result would be that National loses a seat.

I might be wrong.  But I suspect there is even more misery on the way for the National Party.

27 comments on “Dr Shane is in trouble ”

  1. Uncle Scrim 1

    Whangarei tells a story repeated across NZ. In 2017 Reti won this seat by 11,000 votes and National won the party vote there handsomely. This time the Whangarei party vote is 46% Labour to 27% Nat (prelim results)

  2. Pat 2

    By my calculations Smith is safe by at least 2 seats on the list….not that I expect him to take it up going by his comment this morning…but Reti does indeed look to be gone on specials

  3. Uncle Scrim 3

    Might also be interesting to see if new list-only MPs Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith decide to retire from Parliament, if not soon, sometime this term at least. Wouldn't that mean a list lifeline for Maureen Pugh and, er, Harete Hipango?

    The Herald says Gerry is mulling his future: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nationals-gerry-brownlee-tossing-up-resignation-backs-collins-to-stay-on-as-leader/EC3A4J6IFAGS7OWDSFJLGNGSVA/

  4. SPC 4

    So from one deputy party caucus leader who has already lost his electorate seat onto another who will have as well by the time that caucus meeting is held.

  5. woodart 5

    expect more dirty politics by the nats as some deadwood suddenly find they need to spend time with family.

  6. Peter 6

    It would be great if Reti loses his electorate seat. Labour candidate Emily Henderson wouldn't back Maunu residents who want a wall around their suburb to keep poor people state housing out of their suburb.

    Besides, if Henderson gets in there'll be two representatives for the electorate as Reti will be in on the list.

    To think that a very, very short while back the unknowing were suggesting he could be a next National leader. You don't blow two 13,000 vote majorities if you're a well regarded local MP, covid or not.

    • Lettuce 6.1

      "You don't blow two 13,000 vote majorities if you're a well regarded local MP, covid or not."

      I'm waiting for the inevitable "Bring back Sabin!" campaign…

    • Incognito 6.2

      I was wondering too why Reti is under so much pressure to keep his electoral seat, which he won with a majority of 10,967 votes in 2017. Compared to other National MPs, he performed well although internal Party forces possibly held his ascendance back, which was quite late in the game. In 2017, Reti received 18,734 votes and his provisional tally in 2020 stands at 15,637 votes. The Party voted tanked from 18,572 in 2017 to 10,422 in 2020. So, he has done reasonably well to hold on to his candidate votes. On the other hand, the Labour candidate went from 7,767 in 2017 to 15,475 in 2020! My take is that Reti did ok but Emily Henderson did exceptionally well to close the gap.

      • Vigo 6.2.1

        While Reti gained 18,734 in 2017, the boundaries of Whangarei changed for the 2020 election with a loss of about 3000 from a 'blue' rural area to the Northland electorate. So his capturing 15,637 votes in this election wasn't too bad to be fair. The very active and robust campaign by Labour gained a lot of votes from NZF [Shane Jones] 7651 in 2017 down to about 1300 in 2020 and from the Greens 4800 in 2017 down to also about 1200 in 2020. Act increased their vote from 188 in 2017 to 1800 in 2020. A closer analysis showing where Labours increased vote came from will be be very interesting . A CB poll suggested that NZF voters were changing to Labour across NZ. The Green Party candidate campaigned for the PV this time and endorsed the Labour Candidate.

      • solkta 6.2.2

        Labour ran a crap candidate in 2017, i don't know any Greens who voted for him. This time all the Greens i know electorate voted Henderson.

  7. mosa 7

    "Whangarei is on a knife edge with Reti ahead by only 162 votes " Damn i wish the same could be said for Invercargill.

  8. Tiger Mountain 8

    I hope the smarmy Reti gets rolled by specials, it is within reach. Emily ran a strong campaign in Whangārei and yes, as Vigo says there was a boundary change that affected quite a few “lifestyle mini farm” type areas and rural spreads with private access lanes. But I was not sure the new voters would be any less tory inclined than the old lot, but this election certainly gave the bag a shake!

    The Henderson Reeves law firm is a building on a ridge that can be seen around the Whangarei CBD–and I thought that if any Labour candidate could make gains it might be someone like her with family connections to the local establishment. There have been several thousands of new residents over the past 5 years moved North from the Auckland Region according to the Whangārei District Council.

    • silvertuatara 8.1

      I posted a special vote in Whangarei for Emily Henderson which reduces Reti's lead by 1…..looking forward to the special results coming through in avouple of weeks.

      [I’ve changed your user name to the one you’ve used here previously assuming it was a mistake using your full (real?) name – Incognito]

      • Tiger Mountain 8.1.1

        Excellent. Any specials above 162 on current vote standing for Emily Henderson would seal the deal! Though a small margin would be nice to have, because Mr Reti is likely to go for a recount.

  9. ken 9

    I love the way Judith (remember her?) kept calling him "Doctor Shane"…..as if he was on Shortland Street or something.

  10. Mark Craig 10

    I think Dr Reti is the best of a very very bad bunch.And behind hin MATT king is less odious than many of the other tory pretenders.His wife (Matts ) is a bit up herself but that is par for the course in Nazional party pollies /.I am sory Winstone and Shane have gone cos they did splash some cash in the north ,and it was very much needed.North of the Bay of Islands there is very little manufacturing industry or any thing else ,save forestry ,low waged ,hard labour jobs .We regularly get droughts which very much adversely effect our family dairy operation,severely testing my son in laws stoic dedication to improving his families lot .Any way brilliant result and thank goodness the next battle is 3 years away ,the liver can only survive so much abuse.

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