web analytics

Dr Shane is in trouble

Written By: - Date published: 11:51 am, October 18th, 2020 - 27 comments
Categories: election 2020, national, nick smith - Tags:

I don’t think the bad news is over for National.  I will go out on two limbs here and predict that they will lose Whangarei and they will also lose entitlement to a seat.  Maureen Pugh’s career will be over.  And Nick Smith will also be gone.  He should have campaigned harder for the party vote.

Reti will be back but via the list.

Why do I say this?

Whangarei is on a knife edge with Reti ahead by only 162 votes.

Special votes tend to break left.  Younger people and poorer people tend to enroll later or need special votes because they move around more frequently.

Last election Reti’s share of the electorate vote faded slightly from 46.8% to 45.2% once special votes were counted.  The Labour candidate’s share went up from 18.4% to 18.8%.  A similar movement this time will cause Reti’s lead to evaporate.

Similarly with the party vote the tendency is for Labour’s share to improve and National’s to go down.  Last time Labour’s went up from 35.8% to 36.9% and National’s went down from 46% to 44.4%.

I have made a few guesses and put the figure through the Electoral Commission formula and the result would be that National loses a seat.

I might be wrong.  But I suspect there is even more misery on the way for the National Party.

27 comments on “Dr Shane is in trouble ”

  1. Uncle Scrim 1

    Whangarei tells a story repeated across NZ. In 2017 Reti won this seat by 11,000 votes and National won the party vote there handsomely. This time the Whangarei party vote is 46% Labour to 27% Nat (prelim results)

  2. Pat 2

    By my calculations Smith is safe by at least 2 seats on the list….not that I expect him to take it up going by his comment this morning…but Reti does indeed look to be gone on specials

  3. Uncle Scrim 3

    Might also be interesting to see if new list-only MPs Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith decide to retire from Parliament, if not soon, sometime this term at least. Wouldn't that mean a list lifeline for Maureen Pugh and, er, Harete Hipango?

    The Herald says Gerry is mulling his future: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nationals-gerry-brownlee-tossing-up-resignation-backs-collins-to-stay-on-as-leader/EC3A4J6IFAGS7OWDSFJLGNGSVA/

  4. SPC 4

    So from one deputy party caucus leader who has already lost his electorate seat onto another who will have as well by the time that caucus meeting is held.

  5. woodart 5

    expect more dirty politics by the nats as some deadwood suddenly find they need to spend time with family.

  6. Peter 6

    It would be great if Reti loses his electorate seat. Labour candidate Emily Henderson wouldn't back Maunu residents who want a wall around their suburb to keep poor people state housing out of their suburb.

    Besides, if Henderson gets in there'll be two representatives for the electorate as Reti will be in on the list.

    To think that a very, very short while back the unknowing were suggesting he could be a next National leader. You don't blow two 13,000 vote majorities if you're a well regarded local MP, covid or not.

    • Lettuce 6.1

      "You don't blow two 13,000 vote majorities if you're a well regarded local MP, covid or not."

      I'm waiting for the inevitable "Bring back Sabin!" campaign…

      • solkta 6.1.1

        Sabin was in Northland not Whangarei.

        • Lettuce

          I stand corrected. I think I got my wires crossed because he was born in Whangarei. I heard he’s great with kids and gives a good foot massage too.

    • Incognito 6.2

      I was wondering too why Reti is under so much pressure to keep his electoral seat, which he won with a majority of 10,967 votes in 2017. Compared to other National MPs, he performed well although internal Party forces possibly held his ascendance back, which was quite late in the game. In 2017, Reti received 18,734 votes and his provisional tally in 2020 stands at 15,637 votes. The Party voted tanked from 18,572 in 2017 to 10,422 in 2020. So, he has done reasonably well to hold on to his candidate votes. On the other hand, the Labour candidate went from 7,767 in 2017 to 15,475 in 2020! My take is that Reti did ok but Emily Henderson did exceptionally well to close the gap.

      • Vigo 6.2.1

        While Reti gained 18,734 in 2017, the boundaries of Whangarei changed for the 2020 election with a loss of about 3000 from a 'blue' rural area to the Northland electorate. So his capturing 15,637 votes in this election wasn't too bad to be fair. The very active and robust campaign by Labour gained a lot of votes from NZF [Shane Jones] 7651 in 2017 down to about 1300 in 2020 and from the Greens 4800 in 2017 down to also about 1200 in 2020. Act increased their vote from 188 in 2017 to 1800 in 2020. A closer analysis showing where Labours increased vote came from will be be very interesting . A CB poll suggested that NZF voters were changing to Labour across NZ. The Green Party candidate campaigned for the PV this time and endorsed the Labour Candidate.

      • solkta 6.2.2

        Labour ran a crap candidate in 2017, i don't know any Greens who voted for him. This time all the Greens i know electorate voted Henderson.

  7. mosa 7

    "Whangarei is on a knife edge with Reti ahead by only 162 votes " Damn i wish the same could be said for Invercargill.

  8. Tiger Mountain 8

    I hope the smarmy Reti gets rolled by specials, it is within reach. Emily ran a strong campaign in Whangārei and yes, as Vigo says there was a boundary change that affected quite a few “lifestyle mini farm” type areas and rural spreads with private access lanes. But I was not sure the new voters would be any less tory inclined than the old lot, but this election certainly gave the bag a shake!

    The Henderson Reeves law firm is a building on a ridge that can be seen around the Whangarei CBD–and I thought that if any Labour candidate could make gains it might be someone like her with family connections to the local establishment. There have been several thousands of new residents over the past 5 years moved North from the Auckland Region according to the Whangārei District Council.

    • silvertuatara 8.1

      I posted a special vote in Whangarei for Emily Henderson which reduces Reti's lead by 1…..looking forward to the special results coming through in avouple of weeks.

      [I’ve changed your user name to the one you’ve used here previously assuming it was a mistake using your full (real?) name – Incognito]

      • Tiger Mountain 8.1.1

        Excellent. Any specials above 162 on current vote standing for Emily Henderson would seal the deal! Though a small margin would be nice to have, because Mr Reti is likely to go for a recount.

  9. ken 9

    I love the way Judith (remember her?) kept calling him "Doctor Shane"…..as if he was on Shortland Street or something.

  10. Mark Craig 10

    I think Dr Reti is the best of a very very bad bunch.And behind hin MATT king is less odious than many of the other tory pretenders.His wife (Matts ) is a bit up herself but that is par for the course in Nazional party pollies /.I am sory Winstone and Shane have gone cos they did splash some cash in the north ,and it was very much needed.North of the Bay of Islands there is very little manufacturing industry or any thing else ,save forestry ,low waged ,hard labour jobs .We regularly get droughts which very much adversely effect our family dairy operation,severely testing my son in laws stoic dedication to improving his families lot .Any way brilliant result and thank goodness the next battle is 3 years away ,the liver can only survive so much abuse.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Twenty highlights of 2020
    As we welcome in the new year, our focus is on continuing to keep New Zealanders safe and moving forward with our economic recovery. There’s a lot to get on with, but before we say a final goodbye to 2020, here’s a quick look back at some of the milestones ...
    3 weeks ago

  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand Government acknowledges 175th anniversary of Battle of Ruapekapeka
    The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better care for babies with tongue-tie
    Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison over
    The prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison is over, with all remaining prisoners now safely and securely detained, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. The majority of those involved in the event are members of the Mongols and Comancheros. Five of the men are deportees from Australia, with three subject to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Pre-departure COVID-19 test for travellers from the UK and the US from 15 January
    Travellers from the United Kingdom or the United States bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 before departing, and work is underway to extend the requirement to other long haul flights to New Zealand, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “The new PCR test requirement, foreshadowed last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • PM congratulates New Year Honour recipients
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has added her warm congratulations to the New Zealanders recognised for their contributions to their communities and the country in the New Year 2021 Honours List. “The past year has been one that few of us could have imagined. In spite of all the things that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • David Parker congratulates New Year 2021 Honours recipients
    Attorney-General and Minister for the Environment David Parker has congratulated two retired judges who have had their contributions to the country and their communities recognised in the New Year 2021 Honours list. The Hon Tony Randerson QC has been appointed a Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Year’s Honours highlights outstanding Pacific leadership through challenging year
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the New Year’s Honours List 2021 highlights again the outstanding contribution made by Pacific people across Aotearoa. “We are acknowledging the work of 13 Pacific leaders in the New Year’s Honours, representing a number of sectors including health, education, community, sports, the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Supporting seniors to embrace technology
    The Government’s investment in digital literacy training for seniors has led to more than 250 people participating so far, helping them stay connected. “COVID-19 has meant older New Zealanders are showing more interest in learning how to use technology like Zoom and Skype so they can to keep in touch ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago