Early thoughts on the Botany by-election
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10:30 am, December 16th, 2010 - 28 comments
Categories: by-election -
Tags: botany by-election, jami-lee ross, kenneth wang, koro tawa, winston peters
The front-runner for National is Jamie-Lee Ross, who is just 25 years old. He’s currently a Supercity councillor and co-leader of CitRats. One of the main players in the (ongoing) smear campaign against Len Brown and a good mate of Whaleoil, there’s no doubting Ross has animal cunning. But he’s pretty light on record and when he wins he will force a by-election for the Howick council seat after just a couple of months in office. Those factors will count against him but Ross would have to pull a Melissa Lee to come close to losing Wong’s 10,800 majority.
National will want to spin any win as an endorsement of John Key but, going by the Mana script, unless Ross manages to keep nearly all the majority intact, it will be judged a failure for Key.
Will Winston stand? I think he might. It’s worth remembering that his first seat was Hunua, which he won in 1978. Now, three electorates called Hunua have existed three times with very different boundaries. The modern Hunua electorate borders Botany to the south but the 1978 Hunua was extended further north, and only included the Hunua ranges to the south, whereas the modern Hunua goes right across to the west coast. Most of the voters in the 1978 Hunua that Peters won lived in what is now Botany. Sure, it was 33 years ago, and it was a tight race against Labour’s Malcolm Douglas (Roger’s brother), with Peters losing in 1981 to Colin Moyle. Nonetheless, there would be a certain sense of grandeur, so typical of Winston, to returning to the political scene by fighting in the area that first elected him to Parliament.
He wouldn’t win, of course. This is an electorate that is one third Asian and, even if NZF’s overtly racist days are long behind it, I can’t see many of them voting for Peters. But the race would give him a tremendous platform ahead of the general election. Especially if Labour effectively cedes the field, making him the main contender.
I think it is likely that Labour will do that. Koro Tawa lost to Wong by 10,800 votes last time. He hasn’t been confirmed as the candidate for the general election but no-one else seems to have put their hand up. Two campaigns in a year might be too much for a busy academic like Tawa, so maybe someone else will contest the by-election. Whether Tawa or someone else stands for Labour, they’re not going to win.
As with the by-election when Tariana Turia resigned her seat in Te Tai Hauauru, Labour could choose not to run a candidate at all and declare the whole exercise an expensive farce since it will precede the general election by, at most, 8 months. More likely they’ll use it as an early launching pad for the election – rather than centre around the candidate as in Mana they could put them in a subsidary role and have Phil Goff rolling out policy and vision while challenging Key to defend his record. There’s no point keeping their powder dry to the last moment in their situation.
Rather than going all out to win, Labour will use this opportunity fine-tune its Auckland campaign machine, not that it has been short on practice with Mt Albert and the Supercity campaign. The party won’t want to expend a huge amount of money on a sure loser. (btw, I suspect one reason Key has opted for a by-election rather than timing Wong’s resignation and the general election so that they are within 6 months of each other and a by-election is unnecessary is to try to drain Labour’s funds).
Another interesting player is ACT’s Kenneth Wang. ACT has made strong plays for the Asian vote in the past and Wang won nearly 5,000 votes in 2008, close third to Tawa. If he is the only candidate who is both Asian and a former MP, he may well improve dramatically on that performance.
While a win for Ross is assured, there’s still an opportunity for this to be an exciting race if Labour seizes the opportunity to kick off its campaign early and if Peters and/or Wang eat into National’s majority.
An interesting note: if the four I’ve talked about end up being the main candidates, or even if Winston doesn’t come to the party, then we’ll have the remarkable situation of a general electorate seat being contested by 2 or 3 Maori and a Chinese-New Zealander without a Pakeha in the running. All part of the changing face of New Zealand.
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- Potaka Brings Whakaata Māori to its Knees
Today’s Whakaata Māori announcement is yet another colossal failure from Minister Potaka, who has turned his back on te reo Māori, forcing a channel offline, putting whānau out of jobs, and cutting Māori content, says Te Pāti Māori. “A Senior Māori Minister has turned his back on Te Reo Māori. ...1 week ago
- Release: National restricts access to disability care homes
With disability communities still reeling from the diminishing of Whaikaha, a leaked document now reveals another blow with National restricting access to residential care homes. ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt must help save 230 manufacturing jobs
Labour is calling on the Government and Mercury Energy to find a solution to the proposed Winstone Pulp mill closure and save 230 manufacturing jobs. ...1 week ago
- Govt shirks its responsibility to Whakaata Māori
The Green Party has called out the Government for allowing Whakaata Māori to effectively collapse to a shell of its former self as job cuts and programming cuts were announced at the broadcaster today. ...1 week ago
- NZ First Member’s Bill To Disestablish Auckland Transport
Today New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill that will restore democratic control over transport management in Auckland City by disestablishing Auckland Transport (AT) and returning control to Auckland Council. The ‘Local Government (Auckland Council) (Disestablishment of Auckland Transport) Amendment Bill’ intends to restore democratic oversight, control, and accountability ...1 week ago - Release: PM fails in constitutional role and leadership
The failure of the Prime Minister to condemn his Minister for personally attacking the judiciary is another example of this Government riding roughshod over important constitutional rules. ...1 week ago
- Waititi urges Rotorua Lakes Council to immediately stop works at Lake Rotokākahi
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and Member of Parliament for Waiariki, which includes Rotorua, has written to Rotorua Lakes Councillors requesting they immediately stop sewerage piping works at Lake Rotokākahi in Rotorua. “Mana whenua have been urging Rotorua Lakes Council to stop works and look at alternative plans to protect the ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Patient care at risk from redundancies
Patient care could suffer as a result of further cuts to the health system, which could lose thousands of staff who keep our hospitals and clinics running. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens call on Govt to wake up on child poverty
The Green Party says the latest statistics on child poverty in this country highlight the callous approach that the Government is taking on this issue of national shame. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Police are off the beat under National
Foot patrols around the country have decreased 15 percent since National took office, despite National’s Mark Mitchell claiming otherwise. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Climate denial is an insult to Pacific leaders
Winston Peters’ climate denialism at the Pacific Islands’ Forum is an embarrassing new low. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt must end solitary confinement
The Green Party is urging the Government to end the use of solitary confinement within our prisons after new research revealed some prisoners have been held in confinement for more than 900 days. ...2 weeks ago
- Fossil fuels never the answer in climate crisis
The Government’s moves to enable the import of Liquefied Natural Gas is another step away from the sustainable and affordable energy network that this country needs. ...2 weeks ago
- Government must respect Court’s Uber employee decision
Today’s court ruling upholding the rights of Uber drivers is a message to the Government that it must not tamper with employment protections. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Uber court decision recognises workers’ rights
The Court of Appeal decision that Uber drivers are entitled to employee rights such as minimum wage, sick leave, holiday pay and collective bargaining is welcome news for the drivers involved and their unions. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls on Govt to divest from illegal settlements
The Labour Party is calling on the Government to tell the two major wealth funds, the NZ Super Fund and ACC, to withdraw investments from companies listed by the United Nations as complicit in Israel’s illegal settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt backtrack on fast-track still not enough
Labour welcomes news that the National Government is backing down on its reckless proposal to give Ministers final sign-off on significant projects, but it’s still not enough. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast track still on track to environmental destruction
Our environment remains at risk despite the Government's proposed changes to its controversial fast-track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Ohinemuri River pollution highlights mining risks
The harrowing images of the severely polluted Ohinemuri River caused by an old mining shaft could become a more common occurrence under the mining regime the Government is looking to roll out. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt Incarcerating our Mokopuna into a Failed System
Information released by the Minister for Children has revealed that almost 800 mokopuna Māori have been taken by the state this year, putting it on track for the largest displacement of tamariki Māori since the introduction of Section 7AA in 2019. “Oranga Tamariki is running a crusade against whakapapa Māori ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Chris Hipkins’ Speech to Local Government New Zealand
...2 weeks ago
- Release: Regional deals can’t leave ratepayers picking up the bill again
On the back of a patronising speech to local councils the Government has rushed out an announcement on regional and city deals that leaves out the crucial component – funding. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt in thrall to tobacco lobbyists
The National Government has put the interests of tobacco lobbyists ahead of New Zealanders and their health. ...2 weeks ago
- Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations
A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report. “It will have the mandate ...2 days ago - Passport wait times back on-track
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...2 days ago
- New appointments to the FMA board
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...2 days ago
- District Court judges appointed
Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...2 days ago
- Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand
Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...2 days ago
- New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender
New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...3 days ago
- Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...3 days ago
- Improving access to finance for Kiwis
5 September 2024 The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...3 days ago
- Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia
As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...3 days ago
- Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer
Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations. “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...3 days ago
- More choice and competition in building products
A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...3 days ago
- Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul
On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...4 days ago
- Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...4 days ago
- International tourism continuing to bounce back
Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...4 days ago
- Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency
The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “That is ...4 days ago
- Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape
The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...4 days ago
- Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...4 days ago
- Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review
Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...4 days ago
- Government backs women in horticulture
“The Government is empowering women in the horticulture industry by funding an initiative that will support networking and career progression,” Associate Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Grigg says. “Women currently make up around half of the horticulture workforce, but only 20 per cent of leadership roles which is why initiatives like this ...4 days ago
- Government to pause freshwater farm plan rollout
The Government will pause the rollout of freshwater farm plans until system improvements are finalised, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “Improving the freshwater farm plan system to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers is a priority for this ...5 days ago
- Milestone reached for fixing the Holidays Act 2003
Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says yesterday Cabinet reached another milestone on fixing the Holidays Act with approval of the consultation exposure draft of the Bill ready for release next week to participants. “This Government will improve the Holidays Act with the help of businesses, workers, and ...5 days ago
- New priorities to protect future of conservation
Toitū te marae a Tāne Mahuta me Hineahuone, toitū te marae a Tangaroa me Hinemoana, toitū te taiao, toitū te tangata. The Government has introduced clear priorities to modernise Te Papa Atawhai - The Department of Conservation’s protection of our natural taonga. “Te Papa Atawhai manages nearly a third of our ...5 days ago
- Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti
A new 110km/h speed limit for the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) has been approved to reduce travel times for Kiwis travelling in and out of Wellington, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy. ...5 days ago
- IVL increase to ensure visitors contribute more to New Zealand
The International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) will be raised to $100 to ensure visitors contribute to public services and high-quality experiences while visiting New Zealand, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality Matt Doocey and Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka say. “The Government is serious about enabling the tourism sector ...5 days ago
- Delivering priority connections for the West Coast
A record $255 million for transport investment on the West Coast through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s road and rail links to keep people connected and support the region’s economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Government is committed to making sure that every ...6 days ago
- Road and rail reliability a focus for Wellington
A record $3.3 billion of transport investment in Greater Wellington through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will increase productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. We're focused on delivering transport projects ...6 days ago
- Record investment to boost economic and housing growth in the Waikato
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Waikato through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more efficient, safe, and resilient roading network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With almost a third of the country’s freight travelling into, out ...6 days ago
- Building reliable and efficient roading for Taranaki
A record $808 million for transport investment in Taranaki through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Taranaki’s roads carry a high volume of freight from primary industries and it’s critical we maintain efficient connections across the region to ...6 days ago
- Supporting growth and resilience in Otago and Southland
A record $1.4 billion for transport investment in Otago and Southland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more resilient and efficient network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in Otago ...6 days ago
- Delivering connected and resilient roading for Northland
A record $991 million for transport investment in Northland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s connections and support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that every transport dollar is spent wisely on the projects and ...6 days ago
- Top of the South to benefit from reliable transport infrastructure
A record $479 million for transport investment across the top of the South Island through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will build a stronger road network that supports primary industries and grows the economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We’re committed to making sure that every dollar is ...6 days ago
- Government delivering reliable roads for Manawatū-Whanganui
A record $1.6 billion for transport investment in Manawatū-Whanganui through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s importance as a strategic freight hub that boosts economic growth, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. ...6 days ago
- Restoring connections in Hawke’s Bay
A record $657 million for transport investment in the Hawke’s Bay through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support recovery from cyclone damage and build greater resilience into the network to support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that ...6 days ago
- Transport resilience a priority for Gisborne
A record $255 million for transport investment in Gisborne through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and restore the cyclone-damaged network, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With $255 million of investment over the next three years, we are committed to making sure that every transport ...6 days ago
- Prioritising growth and reduced travel times in Canterbury
A record $1.8 billion for transport investment Canterbury through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Christchurch is the economic powerhouse of the South Island, and transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and ...6 days ago
- Supporting growth and freight in the Bay of Plenty
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Bay of Plenty through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and unlock land for thousands of houses, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in the Bay of ...6 days ago
- Getting transport back on track in Auckland
A record $8.4 billion for transport investment in Auckland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will deliver the infrastructure our rapidly growing region needs to support economic growth and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Aucklanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, phantoms projects, ...6 days ago
- Record investment to get transport back on track
A record $32.9 billion investment in New Zealand’s transport network through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more reliable and efficient transport network that boosts economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “New Zealanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, ...6 days ago
- Consultation is open on gambling harm strategy
Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey has welcomed the start of Gambling Harm Awareness Week by encouraging New Zealanders to have their say on the next three-year strategy to prevent and minimise gambling harm. “While many New Zealanders enjoy gambling as a pastime without issue, the statistics are clear that ...6 days ago
- JOINT STATEMENT FOR THE OFFICIAL VISIT OF NEW ZEALAND PRIME MINISTER CHRISTOPHER LUXON
1. Prime Minister YAB Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim hosted Prime Minister Rt. Hon Christopher Luxon on an Official Visit to Malaysia from 1 to 3 September 2024. Both leaders expressed appreciation for enduring and warm bilateral ties over 67 years of diplomatic relations. The Malaysia – New Zealand Strategic Partnership 2. The ...6 days ago
- New Zealand takes another step towards US space operations
Analysis - Space has rapidly become more hostile for geopolitical reasons, but what are the threats, and what is New Zealand doing to assess them? ...1 hour ago - Business case to replace NZDF’s Boeing 757s in the works, as repair costs skyrocket
The planes have been plagued by multiple breakdowns, in one case nearly derailing a prime ministerial trade mission. ...3 hours ago
- Mediawatch: Kiingi Tuheitia’s tangihanga – epic broadcast marks new epoch for te ao Māori
“Anticipation is growing. The warriors are ready. They’re preparing themselves. The paddlers are already on their waka,” Scotty Morrison, alongside veteran journalist Tini Molyneux, told viewers from the banks of the Waikato River. It was Thursday, and the body of Kiingi Tuheitia was being escorted to the barge to take ...6 hours ago - Media focus on small stuff in government’s big-budget transport plan
Some media queried how the $33b national transport plan will be funded. Others highlighted aspects that barely dent the budget. ...8 hours ago
- In pictures: Commonwealth Youth Parliament takes over the House
A Queenslander, a Falkland Islander and a Gibraltarian walk into a debating chamber. It's no joke - just the reality at Parliament this week ...11 hours ago
- An Ode to .. King Luxon
Orient ExpressHot air balloon Number OneIs prepared by the Royal Hot Air Balloon ForceFor Prime Balloonist, King Luxon,And his trade delegation to the Orient.But lo! With a splutter and a puffHot air balloon Number One folds in on itselfAnd deflates onto the field.King Luxon sighs and books a ticketOn a ...11 hours ago - Mike Joy on his memoir and butting heads with Sir John Key
The scientist whose work prompted Sir John Key in 2011 to compare academics to lawyers says it was a "surreal" and "scary" time. ...22 hours ago
- Results of school property inquiry yet to go to Cabinet
The inquiry was completed months ago, but the minister of education is still weighing up its recommendations. ...1 day ago
- ACT pledges pushback on supermarket crackdown
Further regulation of the supermarket sector may hit a snag in the form of David Seymour, who is mounting strong opposition to any such move. ...1 day ago
- The Weekend: Paralympics appreciation vs everyday apathy
Madeleine Chapman reflects on the week that was. The Paralympic Games end tomorrow after nearly two weeks of incredible athletic feats. On a purely results basis, New Zealand hasn’t done that well. As of writing (Friday), we’re yet to win a gold medal and are placed 61st out of 74 ...2 days ago - ‘I wish I’d never thought of it’: The Blue Monkey on Suzanne Paul’s back
The infomercial queen looks back on an eventful life in TV, filled with Coronation Street, The Blue Monkey and a lot of reality television. Suzanne Paul is a New Zealand television icon. Born and raised in England, Paul worked around the world for 20 years before she arrived in Aotearoa ...2 days ago
- Auckland’s secondhand bookshops, ranked and reviewed
Shanti Mathias visits and ranks the crème de la crème of Auckland’s secondhand bookshops. From Ponsonby to Grafton to Devonport to Parnell, Auckland has some lovely secondhand bookshops, many of which are huge and deserve to be browsed for hours, embracing the way that all bookstores, but especially secondhand bookstores, ...2 days ago
- The Spinoff Essay: An ode to tea, the universal panacea
Skimmed Alive, Earl Gravy or Peanut Safari, there’s nothing like making someone a cup of tea exactly how they like it. The Spinoff Essay showcases the best essayists in Aotearoa, on topics big and small. Made possible by the generous support of our members. ‘Corrie climax sparks power surge.’ That was ...2 days ago
- ‘A bogan-fuelled track to remind us where we came from’: Blindspott’s perfect weekend playlist
Damian Alexander and Shelton Woolright of Blindspott share their perfect weekend playlist. Few embody the “west is best” mindset as well as Blindspott. So, it’s probably a good thing the bogan rockers will be able to let their West Auckland sensibilities loose as a part of a supergroup comprised of ...2 days ago
- Brokenwood – the international hit with a kiwi accent
It’s been a brutal year for New Zealand television, with the demise of Three’s Newshub news operation, costing 300-odd jobs; and the canning of TVNZ’s highly rated Fair Go, Sunday and Late News programmes.It’s also been announced the long-running soap Shortland Street will be cut to three nights a week, ...2 days ago
- The Secret Diary of .. Christopher Luxon
MONDAYGreat news for the nation! In a gesture that I know will resonate with ordinary Kiwis who look to the Prime Minister as an example of someone who can deliver a set of deliverables that will take root and come to pass, I have sold one of my nine or ...2 days ago
- Short story: I’m a Māori, by Airana Ngarewa
“See that car, ow?” A lime-green Beetle puttered into the distance, barely making the speed limit. “Lady in the front winked at me. Almost crossed the centre line she was so lost in my eyes.”“Bro, that’s the lifeguard. She’s seventy.”Māui shrugged his shoulders. “My swag crosses generational lines. What can ...2 days ago
- Podcast: Does the government have it wrong on gas?
The government is making a poor economic move with its plan to import natural gas according to Saul Griffith, renewable energy advocate and former climate advisor to Joe Biden. Saul Griffith is an author, inventor, scientist and co-founder of Rewiring America. A few years back he managed to convince ...2 days ago
- New measurements reveal the enormous halos that shroud all galaxies in the universe
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanne Fisher, Associate Professor of Astronomy, Swinburne University of Technology The starry part of every galaxy is surrounded by a vast shroud of gas extending out for more than 100,000 light years. Cristy Roberts / ANU / ASTRO 3D Have you ever ...2 days ago
- Opera Eucalyptus is a lush adaptation of Murray Bail’s novel – with a modern twist
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Moya Costello, Adjunct Lecturer, Southern Cross University Opera Australia My first curiosities about the new opera Eucalyptus, an adaptation of Murray Bail’s multi-award-winning 1998 novel, were regarding how Ellen and the many stories told to her by her ultimately successful suitor ...2 days ago
- The Week in Politics: More roads and maybe fewer tourists
Analysis - The government's $32.9 billion transport spend-up, a big hike in the tourist levy, and the prime minister's ferry-free visit to South Korea. ...2 days ago
- Our cities are losing the small, colourful songbirds that give us the most joy
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andres Felipe Suarez-Castro, Research Fellow, Ecological Modelling, Griffith University Scarlet honeyeater (_Myzomela sanguinolenta_) Marty Oishi/Shutterstock The birds that fill our mornings with songs and our parks and gardens with colour are disappearing from our cities, our new study has found. We ...2 days ago
- New government funding for family violence is unprecedented, but it can’t afford to wait
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University A new A$4.7 billion national funding package announced today will deliver much needed resources to address family and sexual violence. For years, specialist support services, community legal services, therapeutic responses and men’s ...2 days ago
- Residency granted for Brazilian couple whose immigration adviser forgot to apply for visa
Brazilians Newton Santos and Nubia Chiarelli had been fighting to get their case reviewed since 2021. ...2 days ago
- Witness 1.8 billion years of tectonic plates dance across Earth’s surface in a new animation
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Collins, Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Two tectonic plates meet in Thingvellir National Park, Iceland. VisualProduction/Shutterstock Using information from inside the rocks on Earth’s surface, we have reconstructed the plate tectonics of the planet over the last 1.8 billion years. ...2 days ago
- Far North District councillors vote unanimously to retain their Māori ward following impassioned me...
The council's strongly worded resolution also called on the CEO to explore the legal implications of not holding a binding poll as required. ...2 days ago
- The ozone hole above Antarctica will keep opening up each spring for decades to come – here’s wh...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Revell, Associate Professor in Environmental Physics, University of Canterbury NASA via Getty Images At this time of year, as the sun rises over Antarctica, a “hole” opens up in Earth’s ozone layer. The ozone layer is a vital planetary boundary ...2 days ago
- What you need to know about the draft English and maths curriculums
This is what you need to know about the draft English and maths curriculums out for consultation. ...2 days ago
- Is Russia’s changing nuclear doctrine a significant concern – or just another empty threat?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Richardson, Visiting Fellow, Centre for European Studies, Australian National University Russia’s announcement this week that it is revising its nuclear weapons doctrine has raised questions about what this means – and whether it marks a significant escalation in its war in ...2 days ago
- Bunyip birds and brolgas: how can we better protect species important to Indigenous people?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley J. Moggridge, Professor of Science, University of Technology Sydney Bradley Moggridge, Author provided Kamilaroi Country lies in far northwest New South Wales, past Tamworth and crossing over the Queensland border. Here, the bunyip bird (Australasian bittern, Botaurus poiciloptilus), and the ...2 days ago
- Who are the greatest Paralympians of all time?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania Thousands of amazing athletes have competed in the Paralympics Games over the past 64 years. But who are the greatest of these Paralympians? And how would you decide? ...2 days ago
- ‘Put down the hammer and pick up the rammer’
One builder’s quest to find a culture of sustainability in construction. This is an excerpt from our environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. “Have you ever built a sandcastle?” asks Paul Geraets, founder of rammed earth building company Terra Firma. “Everybody has. Rammed earth is the same principle.” Rammed ...2 days ago
- The Friday Poem: ‘Riding in Cars with (Mostly Straight) Boys’ by Josiah Morgan
A new poem by Josiah Morgan. Riding in Cars with (Mostly Straight) Boys titled after a play by Sam Brooks I Back then Kade had a death wish, driving over a hundred an hour after school, past young lads, parents, through the suburbs, cop cars, girl friends. I drove too, ...2 days ago
- Du Val founder faces his last rodeo
Opinion: It was February 9 of this year that Newsroom revealed work had stopped on a big Du Val apartment project in Auckland as contractors threatened legal action.We had visited the Verge site in Mt Wellington. Scaffolders who said they hadn’t been paid were removing their gear. The site was otherwise empty ...2 days ago
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending September 6
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Pachinko by Min Jin Lee (Head of Zeus, $25) Min Jin Lee’s novel was published in ...2 days ago
- The government says more people need to use AI. Here’s why that’s wrong
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erica Mealy, Lecturer in Computer Science, University of the Sunshine Coast The Australian government this week released voluntary artificial intelligence (AI) safety standards, alongside a proposals paper calling for greater regulation of the use of the fast-growing technology in high-risk situations. ...2 days ago
- Bill Shorten’s greatest legacy is the NDIS. It transformed the lives of people like me with disabi...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By George Taleporos, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University Bill Shorten is resigning from politics in February next year. Throughout his 17 years in parliament, no achievement stands out more than his role in the creation of ...2 days ago
- Birth, deaths and marriages: we all have them, which is why they should be protected
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janet McCalman, Emeritus Redmond Barry Distinguished Professor, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock Why does Victoria’s Births, Deaths and Marriages registry matter? Civil registrations are the most important documents created about you by the state: they certify your existence in time and ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Connie Henson, Cojoint Senior Lecturer, Indigenous Studies, UNSW Sydney MilanMarkovic78/Shutterstock Many people with atrial fibrillation don’t have any symptoms. But this heart condition – which involves an irregular and often rapid heartbeat – increases the risk of stroke and heart failure, ...2 days ago
- The seasons change, but hope always prevails on Nadia’s Farm
The Masterchef NZ winner takes us back to the land with a new season of Nadia’s Farm. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. It’s a warm summer’s day in Central Otago, and Nadia Lim is trying to drive a tractor. The old, ...2 days ago
The sleeper will be Stephen Ching’s New Citizen Party. They may use Botany to see what sort of reach they can get.
Has Ching formed his NCParty? His involvement in the Labour Party should be terminated – and good riddance.
Yup, it’s been registered. It even has a wikipedia page. So far it’s main news is being connected to the crafar farms bid…
I recall Ching saying that his Party was designed to assist the Crafar Farms bid.
Ching is always quoted by the Herald as being a Labour Party member when they want to embarass Labour. He was still a member earlier this year I gather has the NZ Council expelled him from the Party or has his membership lapsed?
Whatever scenario it will be good for Labour to be rid of the encumbrance of the Chings.
It is tempting to consider the following as one option …
… that Labour declare the Botany by-election, being a few months off the general elections, effectively a waste of the electorate’s time and a waste of the party’s & taxpayers’ resources, and that Labour will fully contest that seat as would be appropriate at the general election
… that since it is the role of an opposition holding the current government to account, Labour will carefully target and campaign the Botany by-election in a strategic and smart way
“nearly all the majority intact”
Hmm. On the Mana result that would mean anything less that 2500 or so to National would be bad for the Nats.
Is that about the number you have in mind?
As the current party vote majority (which when you have non-incumbents is the more reliable measure of party support) is 11,400, I think whatever proportion of that relating to relative turn-out would be fair. So maybe about 8,000. Labour fell just slightly short of their similar target in Mana due to Matt McCarten cannibalising a bit of the vote. If the New Citizen’s Party run and do okay I might allow a few hundred less as National’s target…
Just to be fair.
It’s a real pity Botany isn’t the reverse of Mana. If Wong’s 2008 Candidate-Vote majority had been significantly higher than National’s Party-Vote majority (in the same way that Winnie Laban was vastly more popular than Labour in Mana), then we’d have a very interesting situation.
To be consistent, leading MSM journalists (and influential Right-Wing Bloggers like Farrar) would be forced to treat Wong’s personal majority as a “National” one in the same way they erroneously did with Laban/Labour in Mana. And if Wong’s personal (Candidate-Vote) majority had been, say, 3000 votes higher than National’s Party-Vote in Botany (as with Laban and Labour in Mana), then I’m pretty sure you’d see the same sort of partial collapse. (given that in a ONE-vote By-Election people will generally opt for the candidate representing their 2008 Party-Vote preference – their core political allegiance). You’d have all these former Wong-supporting Labour, Green and perhaps Minor-party voters (along with the less pragmatic section of Act supporters – those unwilling to vote strategically for the Nats), opting for their own candidate. And to be consistent, the MSM would be forced to make the same dire conclusions about National’s election chances.
But, unfortunately, whereas Laban was 3000 votes (9 percentage points) MORE popular than Labour in Mana (2008), Wong was, in fact, 2000 votes (5 percentage points) LESS popular than National in Botany.
So, if people generally vote along Party lines, we should expect the National candidate’s vote to increase (at least in % terms). However, Eddie’s right in that Act’s Wang may well prove a real drawcard, particularly if he’s the only Asian candidate. All is not lost.
This seat could be open to any local B-grade celebrity also wannabe politician who wished to stand. National’s brand has been discredited by Pansy, and while Jami is ambitious and talented, however is ultimately a cheap party hack.
They’d be better off choosing Paul Henry.
it’s a mistake to think asians wouldn’t vote for mr peters. you would think that they would be very against him, but a surprising number aren’t. there are those who buy into the anti-maori, treaty-gravy-train message. there are those well-settled asian nz’ers who look down on lately- arrived migrants & think that immigration should be tightened so these newcomers can no longer get in.
a lot of the asian demographic is high-income, conservative in nature – our immigration policies are designed so that it is more likely that conservatives rather than progressives are going to settle in this country (something that mr peters never bothers to bring up in his overblown rhetoric on immigration). the messages mr peters gives out often appeal to their conservative outlook – especially the law and order stuff. wasn’t it botany that saw that big march basically for harsher sentences?
so yeah, don’t make the mistake of making blanket assumptions about any ethnic group. not even about asians in relation to nz first.
I’ve always been surprised with the number of asians in NZF…
Yes I too have spoken to Asians who generally prefer Peters’ policies to Nationals, but are uneasy about the anti-Asian aspect.
Winston can be his own worse enemy.
mm typo. ‘worst’
“when he wins he will force a by-election for the Howick council seat after just a couple of months in office”
He might not resign. If Jim Anderton could be a party leader and the mayor of a whole city up until an earthquake hit then why cant he be a Backbench MP and council member (without many other appointments)?
“Labour could choose not to run a candidate at all and declare the whole exercise an expensive farce”.
Perhaps, but I think it would dent their credibility as a major party if they didnt run. Labour have forced two by elections in safe seats this term which National have fought, they might look like they’re scared if all of a sudden a safe National seat pops up and they dont want to come to the party. Also they can hardly label the by election a farce when they were the ones calling for Pansy to resign, and the by election is simply a consequence of that.
He has been quoted as promising to resign from the Auckland Council. Not just if he wins the seat, but if he wins the nomination.
From stuff, yesterday:
Ross said if successful in winning selection and the Botany by-election he will step down as a member of the Auckland council.
“It would not be possible to do justice to both jobs, especially with the expanded role for new Auckland councillors.”
I think Labour will waltz in.
national is in disarray.
It is so hard to tell if you are serious about anything at all, randal.
It will be great to see Jami-Lee Ross off the council. His focus on muck-raking is not what Auckland needs. He will be much less harmless in parliament and fade into the background. He seems to be the only councillor who doesnt want to pull together and get things done for the good of auckland.
Why put such a muck-raker into parliament when the demand is to raise the standard of behaviour above that sanctioned by John Key??
Botany would lose a corrupt MP and gain a vicious muck-raking whelp.
What about Aaron Bhatnagar? I have heard his name mentioned for the Nats in Epsom, but he might have a look at Botany.
Just to let you know folks – I’ve thrown my scarf into the ring.
I’ll be standing in the Botany by-election as an Independent candidate on an anti-corruption/pro (GENUINE) transparency platform.
Opposition to privatisation / contracting out of public services will also be part of my platform.
For more information – check out: http://waterpressure.wordpress.com
Penny Bright
Media Spokesperson
Water Pressure Group
Judicially recognised ‘Public Watchdog’ on Metrowater, water and Auckland regional governance matters.
“Anti-corruption campaigner”.
Attendee: Australian Public Sector Anti-Corruption Conference 2009
Attendee: Transparency International 14th International Anti-Corruption Conference (IACC) 2010
Auckland Mayoral candidate 2010
[email deleted]
Just find someone called White or Wright on the Labour Party membership list in region.
It would be interesting to have a system that disallowed party candidates and allowed only independants.
They present their policies and any promises broken politicians be fined, and then jailed the 2nd time.
I wish Penney a Bright future
Could Raymond Huo cut the majority in Botany perhaps?
I think Winston will look at Botany (unless Te Atatu comes up), it would be a great platform for him towards the 5%. It could maybe be a good way of dispelling any notion that he’s anti-Asian.
A new list of possible candidates in the Pakuranga Times
http://www.times.co.nz/cms/news/2010/12/names_in_ring_to_be_next_mp.php