Early thoughts on the Botany by-election
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10:30 am, December 16th, 2010 - 28 comments
Categories: by-election -
Tags: botany by-election, jami-lee ross, kenneth wang, koro tawa, winston peters
The front-runner for National is Jamie-Lee Ross, who is just 25 years old. He’s currently a Supercity councillor and co-leader of CitRats. One of the main players in the (ongoing) smear campaign against Len Brown and a good mate of Whaleoil, there’s no doubting Ross has animal cunning. But he’s pretty light on record and when he wins he will force a by-election for the Howick council seat after just a couple of months in office. Those factors will count against him but Ross would have to pull a Melissa Lee to come close to losing Wong’s 10,800 majority.
National will want to spin any win as an endorsement of John Key but, going by the Mana script, unless Ross manages to keep nearly all the majority intact, it will be judged a failure for Key.
Will Winston stand? I think he might. It’s worth remembering that his first seat was Hunua, which he won in 1978. Now, three electorates called Hunua have existed three times with very different boundaries. The modern Hunua electorate borders Botany to the south but the 1978 Hunua was extended further north, and only included the Hunua ranges to the south, whereas the modern Hunua goes right across to the west coast. Most of the voters in the 1978 Hunua that Peters won lived in what is now Botany. Sure, it was 33 years ago, and it was a tight race against Labour’s Malcolm Douglas (Roger’s brother), with Peters losing in 1981 to Colin Moyle. Nonetheless, there would be a certain sense of grandeur, so typical of Winston, to returning to the political scene by fighting in the area that first elected him to Parliament.
He wouldn’t win, of course. This is an electorate that is one third Asian and, even if NZF’s overtly racist days are long behind it, I can’t see many of them voting for Peters. But the race would give him a tremendous platform ahead of the general election. Especially if Labour effectively cedes the field, making him the main contender.
I think it is likely that Labour will do that. Koro Tawa lost to Wong by 10,800 votes last time. He hasn’t been confirmed as the candidate for the general election but no-one else seems to have put their hand up. Two campaigns in a year might be too much for a busy academic like Tawa, so maybe someone else will contest the by-election. Whether Tawa or someone else stands for Labour, they’re not going to win.
As with the by-election when Tariana Turia resigned her seat in Te Tai Hauauru, Labour could choose not to run a candidate at all and declare the whole exercise an expensive farce since it will precede the general election by, at most, 8 months. More likely they’ll use it as an early launching pad for the election – rather than centre around the candidate as in Mana they could put them in a subsidary role and have Phil Goff rolling out policy and vision while challenging Key to defend his record. There’s no point keeping their powder dry to the last moment in their situation.
Rather than going all out to win, Labour will use this opportunity fine-tune its Auckland campaign machine, not that it has been short on practice with Mt Albert and the Supercity campaign. The party won’t want to expend a huge amount of money on a sure loser. (btw, I suspect one reason Key has opted for a by-election rather than timing Wong’s resignation and the general election so that they are within 6 months of each other and a by-election is unnecessary is to try to drain Labour’s funds).
Another interesting player is ACT’s Kenneth Wang. ACT has made strong plays for the Asian vote in the past and Wang won nearly 5,000 votes in 2008, close third to Tawa. If he is the only candidate who is both Asian and a former MP, he may well improve dramatically on that performance.
While a win for Ross is assured, there’s still an opportunity for this to be an exciting race if Labour seizes the opportunity to kick off its campaign early and if Peters and/or Wang eat into National’s majority.
An interesting note: if the four I’ve talked about end up being the main candidates, or even if Winston doesn’t come to the party, then we’ll have the remarkable situation of a general electorate seat being contested by 2 or 3 Maori and a Chinese-New Zealander without a Pakeha in the running. All part of the changing face of New Zealand.
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- Green Party unveils its list for the 2023 electionThe Green Party has released its list of candidates for the 2023 election. With a mix of familiar faces, fresh new talent, and strong tangata whenua voices, this exceptional group of candidates are ready to set the direction of the next Government. ...2 weeks ago
- Beyond the Farm Gate Lurks SeparatismThank you for your invitation to be here, after yesterday's budget, and for the opportunity to talk with you. In the economic and social turmoil following the arrival of COVID 19 in New Zealand many concerns emerged. How would we keep our economy going and maintain our exports which are ...2 weeks ago
- Budget 2023: More cost of living supportAt the heart of Budget 2023 is a cost of living package, designed to ease the pressure on New Zealanders in the face of global inflation and the challenges of rebuilding from extreme weather events. It provides practical cost of living relief across some of the core expenses facing Kiwis ...2 weeks ago
- Highlights of Budget 2023Budget 2023 delivers practical cost of living support for New Zealanders today and makes targeted investments to build a better future. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens welcome much needed investment but Labour can go further for Te Ao Māori & Pasifika in t...Today the Green Party’s Te Mātāwaka (Māori and Pasifika) caucus supported the 2023 Budget, but there’s still room for improvement. ...2 weeks ago
- Free prescriptions important step forwardThe Green Party is today welcoming free prescriptions. ...2 weeks ago
- Long-term commitment needed on public housingBudget 2023’s investment in public housing falls short of what’s needed. ...2 weeks ago
- ECE extension Green win nearly 10 years in the makingThe Green Party is today celebrating Budget 2023 funding extending free ECE to two year olds. ...2 weeks ago
- Green initiative addresses both climate and inequalityA long standing Green Party policy has been extended yet again in this year’s Budget. This will deliver warmer homes for thousands of people, lower power bills, and cut climate pollution. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens on board with more affordable buses and trainsThe Green Party is fully on board with free bus and train travel for under 12s and half price travel for under 25s - next stop, free travel for all under 18s, students, and apprentices. ...2 weeks ago
- Budget 2023 falls short of what’s neededToday’s Budget makes good progress on climate and inequality, but falls short of what’s needed to fix both. ...2 weeks ago
- Forestry sector must compensate for slash damageThe Green Party welcomes today’s release of the report of the Ministerial Inquiry into slash and sediment, and are clear that the forestry industry must foot more of the bill. ...3 weeks ago
- Winston Peters – why mess with the magic of the monarchy?When Chris Hipkins appeared on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, he described himself as a “technical republican”. At least it was clearer than when he stumbled over what a woman is. In the blue corner, the other “Chris” said, “New Zealand will become a republic, eventually.” Of course, they both supported ...3 weeks ago
- Govt must break up supermarketsThe Government needs to do much more to address supermarket profiteering, which is driving high food prices. ...3 weeks ago
- Grant Robertson: Pre-Budget speech to BNZ business breakfastThis morning, the Minister of Finance Grant Robertson delivered a pre-Budget speech in Auckland. ...3 weeks ago
- Government drives $2 billion of business research and development
The Government’s Research and Development Tax Incentive has supported more than $2 billion of New Zealand business innovation – an increase of around $1 billion in less than nine months. "Research and innovation are essential in helping us meet the biggest challenges and seize opportunities facing New Zealand. It’s fantastic ...18 hours ago - Achieving lift off: National Space Policy launchedThe next ‘giant leap’ in New Zealand’s space journey has been taken today with the launch of the National Space Policy, Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds announced. “Our space sector is growing rapidly. Each year New Zealand is becoming a more and more attractive place for launches, manufacturing space-related technology ...21 hours ago
- New science and creative technologies wharekura announcedA new Year 7-13 designated character wharekura will be built in Pāpāmoa, Associate Minister of Education Kelvin Davis has announced. The wharekura will focus on science, mathematics and creative technologies while connecting ākonga to the whakapapa of the area. The decision follows an application by the Ngā Pōtiki ā Tamapahore ...23 hours ago
- Freedom Camping changes a win for the environmentProtecting the environment by establishing a stronger, more consistent system for freedom camping Supporting councils to better manage freedom camping in their region and reduce the financial and social impacts on communities Ensuring that self-contained vehicle owners have time to prepare for the new system The Self-Contained Motor Vehicle ...24 hours ago
- Speeding up the family court, reducing stress on familiesA new law passed last night could see up to 25 percent of Family Court judges’ workload freed up in order to reduce delays, Minister of Justice Kiri Allan said. The Family Court (Family Court Associates) Legislation Bill will establish a new role known as the Family Court Associate. The ...1 day ago
- UK FTA delivers benefits from todayNew Zealand businesses will begin reaping the rewards of our gold-standard free trade agreement with the United Kingdom (UK FTA) from today. “The New Zealand UK FTA enters into force from today, and is one of the seven new or upgraded Free Trade Agreements negotiated by Labour to date,” Prime ...1 day ago
- Next steps to reform outdated surrogacy lawThe Government will reform outdated surrogacy laws to improve the experiences of children, surrogates, and the growing number of families formed through surrogacy, by adopting Labour MP Tāmati Coffey’s Member’s Bill as a Government Bill, Minister Kiri Allan has announced. “Surrogacy has become an established method of forming a family ...2 days ago
- Defence Minister to attend Shangri-La DialogueDefence Minister Andrew Little departs for Singapore tomorrow to attend the 20th annual Shangri-La Dialogue for Defence Ministers from the Indo-Pacific region. “Shangri-La brings together many countries to speak frankly and express views about defence issues that could affect us all,” Andrew Little said. “New Zealand is a long-standing participant ...2 days ago
- New Zealand–China science relationship affirmedResearch, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall and the Chinese Minister of Science and Technology Wang Zhigang met in Wellington today and affirmed the two countries’ long-standing science relationship. Minister Wang was in New Zealand for the 6th New Zealand-China Joint Commission Meeting on Science and Technology Cooperation. Following ...2 days ago
- Supporting a strong future for screen sector5 percent uplift clearer and simpler to navigate Domestic productions can access more funding sources 20 percent rebate confirmed for post-production, digital and visual effects Qualifying expenditure for post-production, digital and visual effects rebate dropped to $250,000 to encourage more smaller productions The Government is making it easier for the ...2 days ago
- Minister Sepuloni to attend 61st Anniversary of Samoa’s IndependenceDeputy Prime Minister and Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs (Pacific Region) Carmel Sepuloni will represent New Zealand at Samoa’s 61st Anniversary of Independence commemorations in Apia. “Aotearoa New Zealand is pleased to share in this significant occasion, alongside other invited Pacific leaders, and congratulates Samoa on the milestone of 61 ...3 days ago
- Govt backs retailers with expansion of fog cannon programmeThe Government is continuing to support retailers with additional funding for the highly popular Fog Cannon Subsidy Scheme, Police and Small Business Minister Ginny Andersen announced today. “The Government is committed to improving retailers’ safety,” Ginny Andersen said. “I’ve seen first-hand the difference fog cannons are making. Not only do ...3 days ago
- Government will consider recommendations of Intelligence and Security Act reviewThe Government has received the first independent review of the Intelligence and Security Act 2017, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says. The review, considered by the Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee, was presented to the House of Representatives today. “Ensuring the safety and security of New Zealanders is of the utmost ...3 days ago
- Govt expresses condolences on the passing of HRH Princess Sui’ilikutapuPrime Minister Chris Hipkins has expressed condolences on behalf of New Zealand to the Kingdom of Tonga following the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Mele Siu’ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. “New Zealand sends it’s heartfelt condolences to the people of Tonga, and to His Majesty King Tupou VI at this time ...3 days ago
- Govt expresses condolences on the passing of HRH Princess Siu’ilikutapuPrime Minister Chris Hipkins has expressed condolences on behalf of New Zealand to the Kingdom of Tonga following the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Mele Siu’ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. “New Zealand sends it’s heartfelt condolences to the people of Tonga, and to His Majesty King Tupou VI at this time ...3 days ago
- Security support to Solomon Islands extendedDefence Minister Andrew Little and Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta have today announced the extension of the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) deployment to Solomon Islands, as part of the regionally-led Solomon Islands International Assistance Force (SIAF). “Aotearoa New Zealand has a long history of working alongside the Royal Solomon ...3 days ago
- Minister Mahuta to attend the first Korea-Pacific Leaders’ SummitForeign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta will travel to the Republic of Korea today to attend the Korea–Pacific Leaders’ Summit in Seoul and Busan. “Korea is an important partner for Aotearoa New Zealand and the Pacific region. I am eager for the opportunity to meet and discuss issues that matter to our ...4 days ago
- Agreement between Indo-Pacific partners for supply chain resilienceTrade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor joined ministerial representatives at a meeting in Detroit, USA today to announce substantial conclusion of negotiations of a new regional supply chains agreement among 14 Indo-Pacific countries. The Supply Chains agreement is one of four pillars being negotiated within the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework ...4 days ago
- Celebrating Samoa Language Week 2023Our most spoken Pacific language is taking centre stage this week with Vaiaso o le Gagana Samoa – Samoa Language Week kicking off around the country. “Understanding and using the Samoan language across our nation is vital to its survival,” Barbara Edmonds said. “The Samoan population in New Zealand are ...4 days ago
- Nationwide test of Emergency Mobile Alert systemOver 90 per cent of New Zealanders are expected to receive this year’s nationwide test of the Emergency Mobile Alert system tonight between 6-7pm. “Emergency Mobile Alert is a tool that can alert people when their life, health, or property, is in danger,” Kieran McAnulty said. “The annual nationwide test ...4 days ago
- Whakatōhea and the Crown sign Deed of SettlementENGLISH: Whakatōhea and the Crown sign Deed of Settlement A Deed of Settlement has been signed between Whakatōhea and the Crown, 183 years to the day since Whakatōhea rangatira signed the Treaty of Waitangi, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little has announced. Whakatōhea is an iwi based in ...5 days ago
- New Chair appointed to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCOElizabeth Longworth has been appointed as the Chair of the New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO, Associate Minister of Education Jo Luxton announced today. UNESCO is the United Nations agency responsible for promoting cooperative action among member states in the areas of education, science, culture, social science (including peace and ...6 days ago
- Tourism transformation starts with peopleTourism and hospitality employer accreditation scheme to recognise quality employers Better education and career opportunities in tourism Cultural competency to create more diverse and inclusive workplaces Innovation and technology acceleration to drive satisfying, skilled jobs Strengthening our tourism workers and supporting them into good career pathways, pay and working conditions ...6 days ago
- Tourism transformation starts with peopleTourism and hospitality employer accreditation scheme to recognise quality employers Better education and career opportunities in tourism Cultural competency to create more diverse and inclusive workplaces Innovation and technology acceleration to drive satisfying, skilled jobs Strengthening our tourism workers and supporting them into good career pathways, pay and working conditions ...6 days ago
- Te ao Māori health services cheaper and more accessible for whānauGreater access to primary care, including 193 more front line clinical staff More hauora services and increased mental health support Boost for maternity and early years programmes Funding for cancers, HIV and longer term conditions Greater access to primary care, improved maternity care and mental health support are ...6 days ago
- Te ao Māori health services more accessible for whānauGreater access to primary care, including 193 more front line clinical staff More hauora services and increased mental health support Boost for maternity and early years programmes Funding for cancers, HIV and longer term conditions Greater access to primary care, improved maternity care and mental health support are ...6 days ago
- Government’s work for survivors of abuse in care continuesThe Government continues progress on the survivor-led independent redress system for historic abuse in care, with the announcement of the design and advisory group members today. “The main recommendation of the Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Abuse in Care interim redress report was for a survivor-led independent redress system, and the ...6 days ago
- Humanitarian support for the Horn of AfricaAotearoa New Zealand is providing NZ$7.75 million to respond to urgent humanitarian needs in the Horn of Africa, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The Horn of Africa is experiencing its most severe drought in decades, with five consecutive failed rainy seasons. At least 43.3 million people require lifesaving and ...7 days ago
- Two brand new mental health facilities opened in ChristchurchHealth Minister Ayesha Verrall has opened two new state-of-the-art mental health facilities at the Christchurch Hillmorton Hospital campus, as the Government ramps up its efforts to build a modern fit for purpose mental health system. The buildings, costing $81.8 million, are one of 16 capital projects the Government has funded ...7 days ago
- Government invests more than $24 million in regional projectsThe Government is continuing to invest in our regional economies by announcing another $24 million worth of investment into ten diverse projects, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan says. “Our regions are the backbone of our economy and today’s announcement continues to build on the Government’s investment to boost regional economic ...7 days ago
- Budget 23 supports the growth of Māori tourismAn $8 million boost to New Zealand Māori Tourism will help operators insulate themselves for the future. Spread over the next four years, the investment acknowledges the on-going challenges faced by the industry and the significant contribution Māori make to tourism in Aotearoa. It builds on the $15 million invested ...7 days ago
- First Bushmasters ready to rollDefence Minister Andrew Little has marked the arrival of the first 18 Bushmaster protected mobility vehicles for the New Zealand Army, alongside personnel at Trentham Military Camp today. “The arrival of the Bushmaster fleet represents a significant uplift in capability and protection for defence force personnel, and a milestone in ...7 days ago
- Humanitarian support for the people of SudanAotearoa New Zealand is providing NZ$3.5 million to help meet urgent humanitarian needs in Sudan, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The severe fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has had devastating impacts for civilians. At least 705 people have been killed and 5,287 injured. ...1 week ago
- Clean-up at Hawkes Bay facility to help region deal with cyclone wasteRepairing a Hawke’s Bay organic composting facility devastated by Cyclone Gabrielle is among the latest waste reduction projects getting Government backing, Associate Environment Minister Rachel Brooking announced today. “Helping communities get back on their feet after the devastating weather that hit the northern parts of the country this year is ...1 week ago
- 8% pay boosts for GP & community nursesAbout 6,100 more GP, community nurses and kaiāwhina will be eligible for pay rises of 8% on average to reduce pay disparities with nurses in hospitals, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. The top up comes from a $200 million fund established to remove pay disparities between nurses ...1 week ago
- Govt turns the sod on new Jobs and Skills Hub for Hawke’s BayNew Jobs and Skills Hub to begin construction in Hawke’s Bay The Hub will support the building of $1.1billion worth of homes in the region and support Cyclone Gabrielle rebuild and recovery. Over 2,200 people have been supported into industry specific employment, apprenticeships and training, by these Hubs across NZ ...1 week ago
- Community Housing Aotearoa Conference SpeechTēnā koutou e nga maata waka. Kia koutou te mana whenua tēnā koutou Ngā mate huhua o te waa, haere, haere, haere atu ra. Hoki mai kia tātou te kanohi ora e tau nei, Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā tātou katoa. Tēnā koutou i runga i te kaupapa o te ...1 week ago
- New mental health tool launched for small business owner-operatorsThe Government has launched a new tool to help small business owner-operators manage and improve their mental wellbeing, Small Business Minister Ginny Andersen announced today. The Brave in Business e-Learning series is another tool the Government has delivered to support small businesses with their mental health and wellbeing. “A pandemic, ...1 week ago
- TAB partnership helps secure future of racing industryMinister for Racing Kieran McAnulty has announced the approval of a 25-year partnership between TAB NZ and UK betting company Entain that delivers at least $900 million in guaranteed funding for the racing industry over the next five years. Entain, a UK based group that operates multiple sports betting providers ...1 week ago
- Government project delivers more reliable and resilient water source to NorthlandThe Government has delivered the first of three significant water security projects in Northland, boosting regional business and climate resilience, with the opening of Matawii reservoir today, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan announced. A $68 million Government investment supported the construction of the reservoir, along with two other water storage ...1 week ago
- EDS Opposes Renewables Plan
EDS has lodged its submission on “ Strengthening National Direction on Renewable Electricity Generation and Electricity Transmission ”, a consultation document prepared by the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment and the Ministry ...1 hour ago - Gender And Ethnic Pay Gaps A Concern For Majority Of New Zealanders, Most Support Pay Transparency L...A nationwide poll on pay gaps shows nearly 2 out of every 3 New Zealanders consider pay gaps to be a ‘significant’ or ‘very significant’ issue (64%), with a similar number supporting new pay transparency policies to address the issue (63%). ...1 hour ago
- Dunne's Weekly: Still Overpromising And UnderdeliveringWhen it was first unveiled, the government’s extension in this year’s Budget of 20 hours free early childhood education to 2-year-olds from next March was hailed as a masterstroke. The Minister of Finance said it would save qualifying households ...1 hour ago
- Why you'll be paying more interest on your mortgage – likely forever
Reserve Bank is researching whether interest rates will need to be pegged higher longterm ...2 hours ago - Have we got the brain all wrong? A new study shows its shape is more important than its wiring
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Pang, Research Fellow in Psychology, Monash University Shutterstock The human brain is made up of around 86 billion neurons, linked by trillions of connections. For decades, scientists have believed that we need to map this intricate connectivity in detail ...2 hours ago - In the 1800s, colonisers attempted to listen to First Nations people. It didn’t stop the massacresSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gapps, Historian and Conjoint Lecturer, University of Newcastle Benjamin Duterrau, The Conciliation 1840, oil on canvas. Purchased by the Friends of TMAG and the Board of Trustees, 1945. Collection: Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery, AG79. Note of warning: This article ...2 hours ago
- I’m over 65 and worried about the flu. Which vaccine should I have?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magdalena Plebanski, Professor of Immunology, RMIT University Philippe Leone/Unsplash Influenza, or the flu, is a virus transmitted by respiratory droplets from coughing and sneezing. It can cause the sudden onset of a fever, cough, runny nose, sore throat, headache, muscle ...2 hours ago
- It’s not just climate – we’ve already breached most of the Earth’s limits. A safer, fairer f...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven J Lade, Resilience researcher at Australian National University, Australian National University Shutterstock People once believed the planet could always accommodate us. That the resilience of the Earth system meant nature would always provide. But we now know this is ...2 hours ago
- ‘An exciting possibility’: scientists discover markedly different kangaroos on either side of Au...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vera Weisbecker, Associate Professor, Flinders University Shutterstock Australia’s dingo fence is an internationally renowned mega-structure. Stretching more than 5,600 kilometres, it was completed in the 1950s to keep sheep safe from dingoes. But it also inadvertently protects some native ...2 hours ago
- Closing the First Nations employment gap will take 100 yearsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Reza M. Monem, Professor of Accounting, Griffith University In 2008 Australia’s federal, state and territory governments set the goal of halving the employment gap between First Nations Australians and others within a decade. That required, by 2018, lifting the employment rate for ...2 hours ago
- Making NZ’s tax system fairer is a good idea – but this proposed new law isn’t the answerSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Barrett, Associate Professor in Commercial Law and Taxation, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images It’s no secret that Revenue Minister David Parker has long been interested in tax reform in New Zealand. In 2022, he ...2 hours ago
- A kiss to detect wine on her breath: the violent policing of women drinking in Ancient RomeSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lily Moore, PhD Candidate in Classics and Archaeology, The University of Melbourne A Woman Drinking, Andrea Mantegna. about 1495-1506 The National Gallery, London. The ancient Romans venerated wine. It was accessible to the masses, a fundamental staple of mainstream life ...2 hours ago
- Public ‘flying blind’ on Tarras proposal
Objectors continue to push for the canning of a mooted new Central Otago airport as the company pushing it buys the critical final piece of the site A Christchurch City Council committee has expressed concern about one of its subsidiary companies, Christchurch International Airport, pushing ahead with a proposed airport ...4 hours ago - India-NZ ties 'must move past cricket and curry'
The Govt has faced further calls to ramp up diplomatic relations with India. ...4 hours ago - The silver lining to the cost of living crisis? It’s easier to pay off your student loan
While your grocery bills suggest otherwise, high inflation is not all bad news – especially if you’ve got a New Zealand student loan, Emma Vitz explains. High inflation sucks. The price of lettuce appears to be doubling every time you go to the supermarket. People who bought into the property ...5 hours ago - All the books vying for the 2023 NZ Book Awards for Children and Young AdultsWelcome to the authors, illustrators and publishers on the shortlist for this year’s New Zealand Book Awards for Children and Young Adults. Books editor Claire Mabey offers her thoughts, alongside comments from student readers. It’s hard to write a great children’s book. The kind that will be reprinted and re-gifted ...5 hours ago
- Matchmaking by bankers
Why would – and how does – a bank get involved in dealing with private capital? In our final podcast in conjunction with BNZ, we meet a woman who introduces fledgling businesses with committed, long-term investors. Head of Private Capital, BNZ, Linda Sturgess tells Emile Donovan why paying it forward is a ...5 hours ago - Normalising Te ao Māori in the workplace key to dispelling whakamā
‘Kia kaha, kia māia, be brave and lean into it.' Newsroom speaks to Spark's Māori development lead Riki Hollings about what it means to be on a te ao Māori journey – and the best way to support that | Content Partnership Riki Hollings is a descendant of Ngāti Ranginui and Ngai ...5 hours ago - National still taking bait from streetfighter Hipkins
National should have the confidence to come out from the shadows and more positively assert its own agenda ...5 hours ago - Time to get over the shock of the 'new'
It’s unclear why AI-generated images in advertising are more or less deceptive or ethically questionable than using models Opinion: There has been a recent furore about the use of AI-generated images featuring people used by the National Party in a political advertisement. My immediate reaction was that this was a storm in ...5 hours ago - How do zoos keep taonga safe?
When countries send their iconic and precious animals to be cared for overseas, who and what makes sure they're being cared for appropriately? A kiwi encounter at an American zoo has caused outrage, and raised questions about how our taonga species are treated when they go overseas. But Save the Kiwi ...5 hours ago - The ebb and flow of Auckland Council’s storm recovery costs
An adjusted estimate of flood recovery spend has saved Auckland Council $10m ...5 hours ago - Reform of post-sentence safety laws one step closer
The Law Commission is seeking public input ...5 hours ago - Book of the Week: An incident on Banks Peninsula
Paddy Richardson is swept away by a magical new novel I love novels that you fall into and languish, trusting that each word will be perfectly placed, that each action will be either consistent or surprising, that each character will be rounded and real. Fiona Farrell’s sumptuously written, ...5 hours ago - NZ's beef with critical US debt ceiling debate
Exporters are nervously watching today's critical Congress vote ...5 hours ago - Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 1 June
Loading...(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. ...6 hours ago - Daily crossword, Thursday 1 June
...6 hours ago - After 24 hours of drama, Roger Cook becomes the next premier of Western AustraliaSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Drum, Professor of Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame Australia With the withdrawal of his principal challengers and the implicit endorsement from key factions within the Labor party, Roger Cook will become Western Australia’s 31st premier. We can expect ...13 hours ago
- Word from The Hill: PwC scandal, McGowan quitting politics, PM’s trip to Singapore and high inflat...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team. In this podcast Michelle and ...15 hours ago
- It’s time to end Western Australia’s $4 billion-per-year GST bonusSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Breunig, Professor of Economics and Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock The Morrison government’s decision to give a special deal to Western Australia for the distribution of the income from the ...15 hours ago
- It’s time to end Western Australia’s $4 billion-per-year GST bonusSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Breunig, Professor of Economics and Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock The Morrison government’s decision to give a special deal to Western Australia for the distribution of the income from the ...15 hours ago
- Message Of Condolence For The Passing Of HRH Princess Mele Siu'ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu FotofiliHis Excellency Dr Davies and I wish to extend our deepest condolences to His Majesty King Tupou VI and the Tongan Royal Family following the recent passing of Princess Mele Siu'ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. Her Royal Highness committed her life to ...17 hours ago
- A sustainable Australia depends on what happens in our cities – that’s why we need a national ur...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Freestone, Professor of Planning, School of Built Environment, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock Australia has not had a national urban policy since the Rudd government. A troika of Liberal PMs followed. Tony Abbott wasn’t interested. Malcolm Turnbull didn’t quite live up ...17 hours ago
- NZ comedy couple behind The Office AustraliaLocal comedy veteran couple Jackie Van Beek and Jesse Griffin’s next TV project has been revealed – and it’s an Australian version of the British-turned-American comedy institution The Office. The series, confirmed for 2024, will see David Brent and Michael Scott replaced by a female lead for the first time. ...17 hours ago
- Couples Therapy is NZ’s realest reality TVThree’s take on the overseas hit format is one of the year’s bravest shows, writes Chris Schulz. This is an excerpt from The Spinoff’s weekly Friday newsletter Rec Room. Sign up for regular instalments here. Emma wants Parrish to be more romantic. She doesn’t want to have to keep telling ...19 hours ago
- Couples Therapy is NZ’s realest reality TVThree’s take on the overseas hit format is one of the year’s bravest shows, writes Chris Schulz. This is an excerpt from The Spinoff’s weekly Friday newsletter Rec Room. Sign up for regular instalments here. Emma wants Parrish to be more romantic. She doesn’t want to have to keep telling ...19 hours ago
- Secondary Teachers To Vote On Latest Offers From GovernmentPPTA members will vote next week on new offers for settlement of the secondary teachers’ and area school teachers’ collective agreements that were received yesterday. “PPTA Te Wehengarua national executive met last night to consider the offers and we don’t ...20 hours ago
- Intelligence overhaul recommendations could mean significant reform of spy agencies, expert says
Paul Buchanan says recommendations from a review of intelligence legislation could lead to the most significant reform of the sector in decades. ...20 hours ago - House of Representatives passes Voice referendum legislation, which is assured of Senate passageSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra After a marathon debate, the House of Representatives on Wednesday morning passed the bill for the referendum for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament to be inserted into the Constitution. The bill now goes to ...20 hours ago
- Auditor-General's Report On Supporting Improved Outcomes For Māori To Be Published 1 JuneThe Auditor-General intends to publish the following report this Thursday, 1 June: Four initiatives supporting improved outcomes for Māori We have more information about this report on our website . You will be sent a link to this report shortly ...20 hours ago
- Trying for a baby? What you need to know about a vital part of your womb (and how to look after it)Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Hull, Professor and Endometriosis Group Leader, The Robinson Research Institute, University of Adelaide Shutterstock Human reproduction is completely dependent on the healthy function of an underestimated but vital organ: the endometrium. This is the spongy tissue that lines the ...20 hours ago
- ‘NoHomo’: Cabinet minister takes aim at Simon O’Connor comment on parentsA senior cabinet minister has criticised National Party MP Simon O’Connor for saying it is the responsibility of a mother and a father to raise a child. During a debate on a child support amendment bill in parliament yesterday, Tāmaki MP O’Connor, who is well known to hold socially conservative ...20 hours ago
- ‘NoHomo’: Cabinet minister takes aim at Simon O’Connor comment on parentsA senior cabinet minister has criticised National Party MP Simon O’Connor for saying it is the responsibility of a mother and a father to raise a child. During a debate on a child support amendment bill in parliament yesterday, Tāmaki MP O’Connor, who is well known to hold socially conservative ...20 hours ago
- Jen Cloher on finding their waiFor the last few years, Jen Cloher has been on a journey into their whakapapa. Their latest album, I am the River, the River is Me, is the culmination of the knowledge they’ve gained since. I meet Jen Cloher at a wine bar in Ponsonby with menus written in both ...20 hours ago
- Jen Cloher on finding their waiFor the last few years, Jen Cloher has been on a journey into their whakapapa. Their latest album, I am the River, the River is Me, is the culmination of the knowledge they’ve gained since. I meet Jen Cloher at a wine bar in Ponsonby with menus written in both ...20 hours ago
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The sleeper will be Stephen Ching’s New Citizen Party. They may use Botany to see what sort of reach they can get.
Has Ching formed his NCParty? His involvement in the Labour Party should be terminated – and good riddance.
Yup, it’s been registered. It even has a wikipedia page. So far it’s main news is being connected to the crafar farms bid…
I recall Ching saying that his Party was designed to assist the Crafar Farms bid.
Ching is always quoted by the Herald as being a Labour Party member when they want to embarass Labour. He was still a member earlier this year I gather has the NZ Council expelled him from the Party or has his membership lapsed?
Whatever scenario it will be good for Labour to be rid of the encumbrance of the Chings.
It is tempting to consider the following as one option …
… that Labour declare the Botany by-election, being a few months off the general elections, effectively a waste of the electorate’s time and a waste of the party’s & taxpayers’ resources, and that Labour will fully contest that seat as would be appropriate at the general election
… that since it is the role of an opposition holding the current government to account, Labour will carefully target and campaign the Botany by-election in a strategic and smart way
“nearly all the majority intact”
Hmm. On the Mana result that would mean anything less that 2500 or so to National would be bad for the Nats.
Is that about the number you have in mind?
As the current party vote majority (which when you have non-incumbents is the more reliable measure of party support) is 11,400, I think whatever proportion of that relating to relative turn-out would be fair. So maybe about 8,000. Labour fell just slightly short of their similar target in Mana due to Matt McCarten cannibalising a bit of the vote. If the New Citizen’s Party run and do okay I might allow a few hundred less as National’s target…
Just to be fair.
It’s a real pity Botany isn’t the reverse of Mana. If Wong’s 2008 Candidate-Vote majority had been significantly higher than National’s Party-Vote majority (in the same way that Winnie Laban was vastly more popular than Labour in Mana), then we’d have a very interesting situation.
To be consistent, leading MSM journalists (and influential Right-Wing Bloggers like Farrar) would be forced to treat Wong’s personal majority as a “National” one in the same way they erroneously did with Laban/Labour in Mana. And if Wong’s personal (Candidate-Vote) majority had been, say, 3000 votes higher than National’s Party-Vote in Botany (as with Laban and Labour in Mana), then I’m pretty sure you’d see the same sort of partial collapse. (given that in a ONE-vote By-Election people will generally opt for the candidate representing their 2008 Party-Vote preference – their core political allegiance). You’d have all these former Wong-supporting Labour, Green and perhaps Minor-party voters (along with the less pragmatic section of Act supporters – those unwilling to vote strategically for the Nats), opting for their own candidate. And to be consistent, the MSM would be forced to make the same dire conclusions about National’s election chances.
But, unfortunately, whereas Laban was 3000 votes (9 percentage points) MORE popular than Labour in Mana (2008), Wong was, in fact, 2000 votes (5 percentage points) LESS popular than National in Botany.
So, if people generally vote along Party lines, we should expect the National candidate’s vote to increase (at least in % terms). However, Eddie’s right in that Act’s Wang may well prove a real drawcard, particularly if he’s the only Asian candidate. All is not lost.
This seat could be open to any local B-grade celebrity also wannabe politician who wished to stand. National’s brand has been discredited by Pansy, and while Jami is ambitious and talented, however is ultimately a cheap party hack.
They’d be better off choosing Paul Henry.
it’s a mistake to think asians wouldn’t vote for mr peters. you would think that they would be very against him, but a surprising number aren’t. there are those who buy into the anti-maori, treaty-gravy-train message. there are those well-settled asian nz’ers who look down on lately- arrived migrants & think that immigration should be tightened so these newcomers can no longer get in.
a lot of the asian demographic is high-income, conservative in nature – our immigration policies are designed so that it is more likely that conservatives rather than progressives are going to settle in this country (something that mr peters never bothers to bring up in his overblown rhetoric on immigration). the messages mr peters gives out often appeal to their conservative outlook – especially the law and order stuff. wasn’t it botany that saw that big march basically for harsher sentences?
so yeah, don’t make the mistake of making blanket assumptions about any ethnic group. not even about asians in relation to nz first.
I’ve always been surprised with the number of asians in NZF…
Yes I too have spoken to Asians who generally prefer Peters’ policies to Nationals, but are uneasy about the anti-Asian aspect.
Winston can be his own worse enemy.
mm typo. ‘worst’
“when he wins he will force a by-election for the Howick council seat after just a couple of months in office”
He might not resign. If Jim Anderton could be a party leader and the mayor of a whole city up until an earthquake hit then why cant he be a Backbench MP and council member (without many other appointments)?
“Labour could choose not to run a candidate at all and declare the whole exercise an expensive farce”.
Perhaps, but I think it would dent their credibility as a major party if they didnt run. Labour have forced two by elections in safe seats this term which National have fought, they might look like they’re scared if all of a sudden a safe National seat pops up and they dont want to come to the party. Also they can hardly label the by election a farce when they were the ones calling for Pansy to resign, and the by election is simply a consequence of that.
He has been quoted as promising to resign from the Auckland Council. Not just if he wins the seat, but if he wins the nomination.
From stuff, yesterday:
Ross said if successful in winning selection and the Botany by-election he will step down as a member of the Auckland council.
“It would not be possible to do justice to both jobs, especially with the expanded role for new Auckland councillors.”
I think Labour will waltz in.
national is in disarray.
It is so hard to tell if you are serious about anything at all, randal.
It will be great to see Jami-Lee Ross off the council. His focus on muck-raking is not what Auckland needs. He will be much less harmless in parliament and fade into the background. He seems to be the only councillor who doesnt want to pull together and get things done for the good of auckland.
Why put such a muck-raker into parliament when the demand is to raise the standard of behaviour above that sanctioned by John Key??
Botany would lose a corrupt MP and gain a vicious muck-raking whelp.
What about Aaron Bhatnagar? I have heard his name mentioned for the Nats in Epsom, but he might have a look at Botany.
Just to let you know folks – I’ve thrown my scarf into the ring.
I’ll be standing in the Botany by-election as an Independent candidate on an anti-corruption/pro (GENUINE) transparency platform.
Opposition to privatisation / contracting out of public services will also be part of my platform.
For more information – check out: http://waterpressure.wordpress.com
Penny Bright
Media Spokesperson
Water Pressure Group
Judicially recognised ‘Public Watchdog’ on Metrowater, water and Auckland regional governance matters.
“Anti-corruption campaigner”.
Attendee: Australian Public Sector Anti-Corruption Conference 2009
Attendee: Transparency International 14th International Anti-Corruption Conference (IACC) 2010
Auckland Mayoral candidate 2010
[email deleted]
Just find someone called White or Wright on the Labour Party membership list in region.
It would be interesting to have a system that disallowed party candidates and allowed only independants.
They present their policies and any promises broken politicians be fined, and then jailed the 2nd time.
I wish Penney a Bright future
Could Raymond Huo cut the majority in Botany perhaps?
I think Winston will look at Botany (unless Te Atatu comes up), it would be a great platform for him towards the 5%. It could maybe be a good way of dispelling any notion that he’s anti-Asian.
A new list of possible candidates in the Pakuranga Times
http://www.times.co.nz/cms/news/2010/12/names_in_ring_to_be_next_mp.php