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Election night 2017

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, September 23rd, 2017 - 419 comments
Categories: election 2017, greens, labour, national - Tags:

There are two sorts of election nights.

The good sort is where you cheer and celebrate and can be satisfied that your country is in good hands for the next three years. The bad sort is where the barbarians gain or regain control of the country and you can kiss goodbye to any sort of rational and compassionate leadership.

The stakes are especially important this election. At a time when social and environmental issues are reaching a crisis point and brave principled leadership is required urgently will we have the same minimalist incremental leadership based on PR and lies or will we have a brave new Labour-Green government?

Stay tuned.

There have been over a million early votes and I understand that counting of these will be completed by about 7 pm. Expect to get a strong indication of how the election will go after they are released.

But last election the Greens gained an extra vote after special votes were counted. This time given the large number of special votes there could be a possible change of two seats.

For election results click here.

For Radio New Zealand’s youtube coverage click here.

This post will be updated during the night.


Key Electorates live results

General Seats





Māori Seats

Te Tai Tokerau

Te Tai Tonga

Te Tai Hauāuru


419 comments on “Election night 2017 ”

  1. lurgee 1

    Mike Hosking! Michelle Boag! My eyes! My eyes!

    (Thankfully, I’ve got the volume turned down so at least I still have my ears.)

  2. weka 2

    ” WhakarauJK‏ @ArrestJK 2m2 minutes ago

    advance votes that have been counted are likely from smaller booths (traditional favour Nats)”

    • JC 2.1

      Tnks Weka, North or South islands… Do you know ?

      Listening to the wireless RNZ, with trepidation as latest stats have a large Blue lead… and NZF!!

  3. Carolyn_nth 3

    Paul Goldsmith taking an early lead over Seymour in Epsom!

    • lurgee 3.1

      Go it, Goldie!!

      ** Has to go and sit down **

    • Tracey 3.2

      Nah. I see david parker getting votes that cld help goldsmith

    • lurgee 3.3

      It looks like David Seymour has got Epsom, so unfortunately ACT will survive yet again.

      Frustratingly, David Parker won well over 1300 votes; Seymour’s current majority is just over 900 votes. If the lefties had voted tactically they might have been able to make 2017 the final ACT (see what I did there?)

  4. DoublePlusGood 4

    Looks like the BIG SCARY TAX IS SCARY bullshit has driven a bunch of National voters back after they were initially keen on Labour. Fuck those twits.

  5. Carolyn_nth 5

    Why oh why did people in Epsom vote for David Parker????!!!!

  6. Carolyn_nth 6

    Maori seats:

    Coffey (Labour) is leading over Flavell
    Davis over Harawira
    Whatiri (Lab) over Marama Fox
    RURAWHE (Lab) over Tamati
    Henare (Lab) over Taurima

    Basically it’s all Lab so far

  7. lurgee 7

    Winston Peters tells John Campbell he’ll only talk once the results are in. Then shut up, you grisly revenant.

  8. Sanctuary 8

    This is so close.

  9. infused 9


  10. Carolyn_nth 10

    Helen White (Lab) is leading over Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central

    And the Maori Party is looking to be wiped out!

  11. ScottGN 11

    Duncan Webb is leading in ChchCentral and labour is winning the party vote there.

  12. lurgee 12

    National on 46.5%? This is worse than I expected. I thought 43% would be a good showing for them.

  13. ScottGN 13

    Labour winning both votes in Whanganui currently too.

  14. Sumsuch 14

    Is Chris Trotter commentating? If so, where? I don’t know well enough or don’t respect the experts on the 3 main specials who are supposed to represent the Left. 1984 ‘Leftists’.

  15. millsy 15

    2005 in reverse? National win but Labour flip some seats back.

  16. Carolyn_nth 16

    The Nat candidate is now leading over Peters in Northland.

    And on 3.2% of the vote, Kiri Allan (Lab) is leading over Anne Tolley in East Coast!

  17. dv 17

    And king 300 ahead of peters

  18. lurgee 18

    National SLUMP to 46%, with 17% of the vote counted. Labour SOAR to 36.6% And Jacinda Ardern is burying Melissa Lee. Good.

    • lurgee 18.1

      National UNSLUMP to 46.2%, with 20% counted. Labour struggling at 36.3%. Bugger, bugger, bugger and damn.

      • Carolyn_nth 18.1.1

        I do not understand why so many people vote for the Nats. Their campaign was a clusterfuck! Wheels came off!

        • lurgee

          I think politically aware lefties like us tend to over-estimate the importance of the campaign (a lot of which we don’t see anyway) and under-estimate the appeal of Bill English to a wide swathe of New Zealand.

          • BM

            Most peoples lives aren’t misery and hardship, certain elements of the left don’t seem to get that.

            • DoublePlusGood

              Oh, we get that. What we don’t get is why the right don’t care about those whose lives are misery and hardship. Because we have empathy, and the right don’t.

            • Incognito

              Most people have pretty good lives regardless of who’s in Government but it is the ones who are not so fortunate for whom it matters a lot who’s in Government. Certain elements of the right don’t seem to get that.

              • miravox

                “Most people have pretty good lives regardless of who’s in Government but it is the ones who are not so fortunate for whom it matters a lot who’s in Government”


                and there is little generosity of spirit, nevermind generosity of anything else, on the right.

                • Incognito

                  I guess they are generally so wrapped up in their own lives that it doesn’t even occur to them that other people are much worse off. It simply doesn’t occur that their choices could and indeed do affect the lives of others in a <negative way. It is about awareness and compassion; Anne Salmond called Bill English “fundamentally decent” and she’s right IMO. Being blinded by ideology is all too common!

                  • miravox

                    I liked Anne Salmond’s piece except for that ‘fundamentally decent’ bit. The more I see what he’s done I think he’s anything but.

            • tracey

              That makes the lack of empathy for our vulnerable worse.

        • Stuart Munro

          Villainous MSM plague rats.

        • Peter

          How many reasons do you want?

          Learn to listen to those that work the hardest, not those that moan the loudest.

  19. lprent 19

    I love the way that the media and commentators seeing trends when there isn’ anything much.

    The Maori seats (how to you do the accent on kde?) look like they are all falling to Labour. That is a big margin to Coffery against Flavell so far. But that seat is pretty segmented.

    Quite interesting what is happening in the seats generally. Auckland Central.

  20. Ovid 20

    Big swings to Labour in the party vote in both Dunedin seats.

  21. swordfish 21

    Turei second in Te Tai Tonga

    Maori Party’s 1.1% Party-Vote pretty much what I was thinking after comparing their ratings in the Final round of Polls with subsequent Election result at previous Elections. They were clearly going to be down on 2014.

    Same with ACT.

    Currently moving back and forth between TVNZ, RNZ and Official Election Results

  22. Sanctuary 22

    All the marginal seats are splitting left, but the government fucking party vote is holding up. I am still picking a draw. Have early voting been committed yet?

  23. lprent 23

    FFS why are people voting for David Parker in Epsom?

    PARKER, David1450

    Goddamn two tick when they should just get the parasite party Act out

    • weka 23.1

      Anyone know how Labour campaigned there?

      • lprent 23.1.1

        Very little on the ground. A bit in the media.

        Fortunately it looks like Act is not getting party votes. It still helps National, but it is getting to the point that they only cost national. Pretty much now.

        • Andre

          It helps National a lot if Epsom becomes an overhang seat like Ohariu was.

        • weka

          So this is prob Labour voters that aren’t particularly political and don’t get tactical voting?

          Didn’t quite follow the second bit. Act getting the seat won’t change who forms govt this time?

          • lprent

            A list MP is about 0.8% under ideal circumstances. Now this depends. It depends on how many ‘lost’ votes there are and how much how much ‘overhang’.

            So the sweet spot for a larger coalition partner is if a parasite party gets under something like 0.3 – 0.4% and it causes an overhang, or it gets above about 1% and causes one or more coalition MPs in the parasite party or a few points going to their larger partner party through lost vote.

    • swordfish 23.2

      Labour’s Wood only took 9% in Epsom last time.

    • Craig H 23.3

      I always wonder how many Nat voters vote for neither Goldsmith nor Seymour because they don’t like the deal.

  24. Andre 24

    I’m surprised at how many people appear to be giving their party vote to the Nats and their electorate vote to the Labour candidate. Jacinda in Mt Albert, Nash in Napier seem to be picking up a lot of that.

    Is the motivation to vote for the winner really that strong?

    • weka 24.1

      My question is are people still not understanding MMP?

      • tracey 24.1.1

        How would people know when the media fixate on polls and Labour and Greens dont tactically withdraw or have cups of tea. Except in Ohariu. But why just there.

        Intrrestingly a few Ministers are being hammered (comparatively speaking), in their electorates. Green and Lab combined ahead of Smith

      • DoublePlusGood 24.1.2

        I think this is what is going on. Very few people I meet actually understand how the system works.

        • boggis the cat

          It would help Labour and the Greens to put some effort into explaining how the system works.

          A lot of people believe that the party vote doesn’t matter, and tend to bandwagon for whomever seems likely to win the electoral seat.

      • tracey 24.1.3

        The major parties still hanker for FPP. Labour, in particular and this is evidenced by some supporters here expect Greens to concede everything for nothing in return. Ohariu was mature politically. But why not a seat for the Greens somewhere to ensure their survival?

        The Greens truly do not care if other parties implement their policies but Labour needs to suck it up and recognise in small measure they need partners. Greens do NOT seek to be the tail that wags the dog so are a much better date than NZF.

        NZF is SO fucked up they stand people in Maori seats they want to abolish!

        • greywarshark


        • weka

          “But why not a seat for the Greens somewhere to ensure their survival?”

          How would they do that?

          • lprent

            It really is too hard to do. That is the path to losing the party to be dependent on the charity of the another party.

            It isn’t hard to see examples of that. I’d describe it as a prolonged party suicide.

            • weka

              Yeah I think it would be hard too. The MSM would be all over it for a start.

              Only move I can see is that Labour moves from its stand in all seats no matter what, and quietly doesn’t stand in some places, without doing a deal with the Greens. This is what GP do. But it’s still hard to see how they could do that without it being used a stick to beat them.

              • lprent

                Look at Epsom. After what? Nearly 15 years?

                Labour double ticks is still a major problem. Don’t stand and their party vote moves away as well.

                It is exactly what the Greens have as well with their supporters. So I think that won’t work as well. All it does is to split the leftish vote.

                • weka

                  what would happen if neither G or L stood in Epsom?

                  “Labour double ticks is still a major problem. Don’t stand and their party vote moves away as well.”

                  Yes, there needs to be a bloody good reason to do it. Greens did it in TTT, and did it in Ōhāriu until Dunne stood aside. Tactical, not a deal between parties.

                  • lprent

                    The party vote goes down – often to protest parties. This isn’t hard to find in the previous times that a local candidate hasn’t been available.

                  • tracey

                    Then they have to use their imaginations and think outside the FPP square to stop cannabalising each other.

                    In the end Greens need to be over 5% every time so that parties keep taking up their policies and implementing them.

              • tracey

                Yes because of the FPP stand Labour took about the deal with ACT. my point is we have only one major party even thinking about MMP and its permeatations and even that one is still pushing FPP which is why with 47% it cannot govern cos other than its beneficiary it has no partners.

                It will take a shift in thinking. And a deeper understanding in Labour that the Greens are not dog waggers. They GET MMP. They do not hold parties to ransom… much like MP.

                I am sorry to see MP gone but I think they will be back. We need them in our politics.

          • tracey

            The same way it works for Labour to ask Green to stand aside in Ohariu. A Maori seat perhaps with a strong Maori candidate like Marama Davidson.

    • Incognito 24.2

      It seems so; voting for the winner makes you feel a ‘winner’ too and that seems to matter a lot nowadays …

    • Craig H 24.3

      I think people are taking MMP at its original selling point of vote for a party you like and a candidate you like, whether they are the same party or not, and Labour electorate MPs are usually well-liked.

    • gingercrush 24.4

      Nash ran a very strong personal campaign in 2014 so this isn’t surprising. Also it is one of the electorates with a strong swing towards Labour this election.

  25. UncookedSelachimorpha 25

    I have not been able to find out how many specials from the early voting there are (people who enrolled and voted at same time).

    Does anyone know?

    I suspect early vote specials might favour the left, and there could be lots of them. I know a lot of young people who enrolled and voted early, didn’t bother voting last time, and voted left this time.

  26. lurgee 26

    So, the Maori Party gone … United Future gone … Mana gone … TOP never got there … Why does ACT have to survive this Massacre of the Minor Parties?

    • tracey 26.1

      Because for some reason lab and greens can agree in ohariu but not in epsom. I still think Parker was a mistake in Epsom. He is on tv more than most and is experienced.

  27. swordfish 27

    TVNZ appear to have grossly fucked up their graphics with the Maori seats.

    On the Party-Vote, they have National way out in front in each Maori electorate. Quite patently mixing up Labour and National’s Party-Vote percentages.

    They don’t seem to have cottoned on yet.

  28. eco maori 28

    Well I can see that if the Maori seats were in the general roll the out come would be different.
    There you go

  29. gingercrush 29

    I think you should update the main posts with other more interesting seats like Auckland Central, Whanganui and Hutt South. Nelson and Ilam are really not of interest.

  30. Union city greens 30

    Best thing tonight is the apparent death of the MP so no as it were nat government.

    Hands on heart, as the numbers are now, who wouldn’t accept a L, G, NZ1st government? As second best scenarios go it wouldn’t be a killer.

    Hoping the big Auckland vote happens and eases the current situation.

    I don’t think it will be over until the specials are counted. I hold the belief that people wouldn’t register on the day to vote national.

  31. lurgee 31

    And now it’s National on 46.4% versus Labour in 35.9%, with 31% counted. This is like 2005 in reverse – the gap is widening as the night wears on.

    Basically Labour have cannibalised the Greens. The actual balance between the right and left blocks hasn’t changed.

    I’m going to say it – Jacindamania was an illusion.

    • esoteric pineapples 31.1

      Yes, the most telling statistic at the last election was that 60 percent of voters voted for a conservative party. While the voting public stays at around 55 percent conservative and 45 percent progressive, nothing is likely to change.

      However, in the next ten years a huge number of presently 65 to 75 year olds will start to die off and that will hit the conservative vote harder than the progressive vote. People under 45 aren’t going to have the cushion of being brought up in the 1960s and 1970s to believe that all is well – not with huge student debts, inaffordable housing etc.

      • DoublePlusGood 31.1.1

        It was -6.6% to the right at the last election. Now it’s the left at about +3.

        Also, don’t be confident about old people dying off changing anything. They get replaced by new people desperate to cling on to their privilege.

    • tracey 31.2


      54 days ago Labour was on 24%.

      This is still an amazing story for Labour. The only thing that halted it was Joyce’s lie about a hole and the other about imaginary taxes espesh income tax. The kaye/perata strategist said nothing changed for nat but it did… two weeks ago. With this deliberate deception.

      Greens getting back to 6%, imo, means they recovered from the Turei thing. Why?

      Because when they polled at 15% Labour was 24. Greens have dropped from polls to actual results. That 9% drop? Went to Labour.

      Where does everyone think the Labour people went to drop to 24? To the Greens.

      Jacinda is real. It took a set of lies, a machine and strong coverage of the lies to halt the progress.

      • lurgee 31.2.1

        It’s great for Labour, but it has added nothing to the left bloc overall.

        Labour + Greens are virtually where they were two months ago. Maybe a couple of percent higher, but not nearly enough.

        (Unless there’s a rapid shift in later on, in which case I never committed this Thought Crime.)

        • Incognito

          So far, 5 more seats than 2014 …

          • lurgee

            Like I said, the left bloc is doing somewhat better – in 2014, they got about 36% TOTAL, and now they’re getting 41%. An improvement, but hardly grounds for ‘mania’ when facing a third term government, led by the charisma bypass that is Bill English.

            And even that slight gain hasn’t been at the expense of National.

  32. swordfish 32

    Party-Vote currently …

    Nat 46.4
    Lab 35.9
    NZF 7.2
    Green 6.1

    If – and it’s a mighty big If – the 2014 Election Night vs Final Results differentials were repeated this time then …

    Nat 45.38
    Lab 36.34
    NZF 7.01
    Green 6.78

    But of course …

    (1) The Party-Vote continues to move through the evening (Labour currently trending slightly down, for instance)


    (2) Possible Youthquake (or at least a whiff of one) might just see those Specials go even more disproportionately Left than in previous Elections.

    • gingercrush 32.1

      Could there not be a stronger Labour vote in the specials this time that perhaps you haven’t yet calculated?

      Labour is doing stronger in the electorate vote that perhaps hasn’t yet been captured in the party vote.

      • swordfish 32.1.1

        All covered seamlessly in my point number (2), gingercrush.

        Good to see you back here, by the way … you may be from t’other side of fence but you certainly know your psephology

        • gingercrush

          Quite good to be back. I’ve been brutally bored by politics the last three years. I told my partner the day Andrew Little waivered, that Labour should make a leadership change. Could be a risk but was their only choice. Well it worked. Invigorated my interest too. This is the closest the left-bloc have been for nine years. This blog should be celebrating that. And the left-bloc is in a position where you can form the next government.

          • swordfish

            Labour and Greens are currently trending down a little

            Before 9pm Lab 35.9 / Green 6.1
            Now Lab 35.4 / Green 5.9

            But you’re right about the Left Bloc’s revival …

            Lab + Green = (2014) 35.83% … (2017 currently) 41.30%
            Up 5.5 points

            Potentially 42-44% after Specials

            … And that it could still potentially form the next Govt.

    • swordfish 32.2

      11pm Update

      Party-Vote currently …

      Nat 46.2
      Lab 35.7
      NZF 7.5
      Green 5.9

      If the 2014 Election Night vs Final Results differentials were repeated this time then …

      Nat 45.18
      Lab 36.14
      NZF 7.31
      Green 6.58

  33. tracey 33

    Maori tv is reporting Nats ahead in party vote in Maori Seats. So heaps of Maori seat voters like the Nats but are slamming MP candidates.

    • swordfish 33.1

      Maori tv is reporting Nats ahead in party vote in Maori Seats

      That’s a major mistake on their part.

      They’re probably dependent on TVNZ coverage.

      See my comment here

      Election night 2017

      Labour well ahead in the Party-Vote in all Maori seats.

    • Andre 33.2

      Did a quick skim through the Maori seats, and it’s only Te Tai Tonga and Te Tai Tokerau where that’s happening, and it’s not by much. In the others the Maori Party vote is well ahead of the Nats.

  34. Exkiwiforces 34

    This is going to be tight one and as I said a couple nights ago “Please faster your seatbelts as we have some rough weather ahead as we prepare to land into Wellington ATM”.

  35. eco maori 35

    Not so chirpy now A Its logical

  36. BM 36

    The youthquake seems to be about a 1 on the richer scale.

    Having said that Jacinda has done a great job and if she sticks around is the future of the labour party.

    • lurgee 36.1

      Jeremy Corbyn had two years to get himself dug in and a highly effective campaigning organisation effectively under his control. Jacinda Ardern only had the useless Labour Party.

    • swordfish 36.2

      Whoaaaaa there, Compadre !

      The Youthquake may well be largely hidden within the Special Votes. Won’t know for a couple of weeks.

    • gingercrush 36.3

      Labour is doing far stronger in capturing electorate votes but they’re not all translating into party votes. Christchurch is tilting Labour but National holding reasonably well in what hasn’t been a National freindly city. Labour doing strong in the cities and well in some provincial areas. National strong provincial vote and bleeding some votes in the cities.

      • tracey 36.3.1

        If chchch folks are pissed off at rebuild then slaping high list MPs with a wet bus ticket while party voting Nat is dopey

        • gingercrush

          Your analogy is incorrect. Labour is doing better both on the electorate vote in Christchurch and getting more party votes. Maybe we’ve just seen a demographic change in Christchurch and it will be a softer left-leaning city than previously.

          • tracey

            Chch has been traditionally labour other than Gerrys seat. Wagners party vote nat is quite high

            • gingercrush

              Yes but maybe we have seen a more permanent change in Christchurch where it is no longer traditionally Labour.

        • esoteric pineapples

          Same could be said of the people moaning about water being sold overseas but voting National etc etc etc

      • swordfish 36.3.2

        Well certainly not in the past … during the Clark Govt, Christchurch was (broadly speaking) as Left-leaning as Wellington … but it swung fairly heavily in a blue direction under Key …. so you’d have to say it’s been pretty National-friendly over the last decade.

    • Exkiwiforces 36.4

      I hope she stays on as leader, I’ve got a funny feeling this may be a re-run of the of 69 election when big Nom just miss out and he stayed on as leader to win the 72 election.

      • BM 36.4.1

        Losing here might be the best thing

        She can do the whole kid thing now and come back in 2020 and be PM.

        • Stuart Munro

          Yes – wonderful for Labour – not so good for the extra 50 000 homeless and 2-3000 dead from National’s austerity pogrom. No good for hospitals or schools or international competitiveness or self respect.

          A government to be ashamed of.

          And a call to arms.

        • Exkiwiforces

          Yeah, if Labour can’t stitch up a coalition this time round and you could say that Labour should win in 2020 or sooner. I’m still of the opinion that if Goff had stayed on as leader after narrowly lost that election and he could’ve won the next one as it was later proven that Key along with his follow muppets while lying though their teeth.

          The ABC’s election Nerd (this guy knows his stuff on elections) is saying that National may lose 1to 2 seats

      • lurgee 36.4.2

        I hope she stays on as leader, I’ve got a funny feeling this may be a re-run of the of 69 election when big Nom just miss out and he stayed on as leader to win the 72 election.

        When Labour fell below 36% I wondered if Stuart Nash might murmur, “I’ll take it from here, Jacinda.”

        The git.

        • Exkiwiforces

          This change of leadership after every election really needs to stop. Because the joe public see’s the Labour Party on crisis as the only way Labour well get back in is a stable leadership and a stable party.

  37. joe90 37

    Adrian Rurawhe holding his own in Te Tai Hauāuru and Steph Lewis trails the execrable Harete Hipango in Whanganui.

  38. Bill 38

    Did Parker just concede?

    • tracey 38.1

      Interesting comments on minor parties just made by Parker… and his “labour and greens” neck and neck with Nats.

      • gingercrush 38.1.1

        Jacinda Ardern was interviewed by John Campbell where she indicated the party with most party votes should be given first choice in forming a new government. Labour is still stuck in FPP thinking. The left bloc (Labour + Greens) are very close to right bloc (National only now) and likely to narrow the gap slightly tonight and even more once specials are counted. The largest party only has a mandate if their bloc can get a majority. We’re not seeing that today.

        • mpledger

          Is Jacinda in it to win it or not?

          FFS, don’t play the gentleman’s game because noone else is going to. Get in the scrum and steal it before English can get his boots on.

          • McFlock

            Who goes first is irrelevant.

            Either the nats will be able to attract winston, or he’ll tell them to get stuffed.

            • mpledger

              Well, she’s got to offer an alternative which she can’t do if she stands back.

              • McFlock

                NZ1 will knock on Labour’s door, too.
                Can’t have a bidding war with only one bidder.

                • Incognito

                  You reckon? I think Labour will do the knocking.

                  • McFlock

                    Yeah, but there’s no urgency.

                    • McFlock

                      mpledger was saying that if Labour sit back and let national make the first offer to nz1, Labgrn won’t get to make an offer.

                      labgrn are better off getting their ducks in a row before approaching winston, which is a process the nats can skip because they have no friends.

                      The only way labgrn won’t get to make winston an offer is if the nats sell out all principles to keep the govt benches, while winston tells them what to do. Which is an offer no principled politician could match, anyway.

                    • Incognito

                      I see.

                      I think it’s more like a ‘closed tender’ and the ‘vendor’ will decide when all tenders are in.

        • tracey

          That is ridiculous and why parties need to have been talking with potential partners before an election. A combined representation of 53% is moralky and otherwise superior to 46.5%

  39. KJT 39

    Looks like a victory for lying, cheating, dirty politics and pretence.

    Bullshit over reality.

    Very sad for our political future.

    • boggis the cat 39.1

      So no change, then?

      My view is that it is going to be generational change that will shift the balance away from the greediest generation. Once the ‘boomers’ are gone their BS ‘neoliberal’ politics will follow them.

      (On the other hand, climate change isn’t susceptible to political argument, so perhaps the changing reality will force policy changes.)

      • KJT 39.1.1

        Neo-liberalism is the wealthy and greedy, not the boomers.

        Setting generations against each other simply plays into the hands of the real culprits.

        Even more young people voted National this time. Which is extremely puzzling.
        “Turkeys voting for Christmas, comes to mind”.

        • boggis the cat

          Where do you get the stats for the young voting for National?

          That would, indeed, be weird.

  40. Exkiwiforces 40

    God, can someone stuff a carrot into Pebble’s mouth to shut him up!

  41. boggis the cat 41

    The last two poll results could be on point:
    Newshub Reid Research 13–20 Sep Nat 45.8 Lab 37.3 Grn 7.1 NZF 7.1
    One News Colmar Brunton 15–19 Sep Nat 46 Lab 37 Grn 8 NZF 5

    If so, then this may mean that Newshub / Reid Research have a better system than the rest of the pollsters.

    (Assuming that there isn’t a significant shift from the present vote split. It used to be the case that inner city results took longer to come in, and so the Labour / left vote picked up late — however I don’t know if this is still the case.)

    • lurgee 41.1

      Some people round here said pretty silly things about Reid Research.

    • Craig H 41.2

      It’s still the case that the big city booths are last to come in, but not in the same numbers as before.

      • McFlock 41.2.1

        and it’s still the case that if the polls are accurate, their results can be out by >6% from week to week.
        An irrelevant distraction.

        • boggis the cat

          The poll results should be a Gaussian distribution, so the chances that they are each out by the margin of error but in opposite polarity is very small. Typically they use a 95% probability model, so a given poll being out by the given margin of error is a 5% or less probability.

          Either the earlier polls were somehow deficient (with the possible exception of Newshub / Reid Research, which appeared to be an outlier as most other polls shifted) or a large portion of the voters were genuinely unsure of which party to vote for.

          If it is the second situation (i.e. the polls weren’t borked) then this suggests to me that a large portion of people are being driven by ‘drama’ and not policy. Perhaps the survival of NZ First lends credence to this?

          • McFlock

            Regardless of what drives voters, if the polls weren’t borked then they’re about as useful as a speedo that tells you where you were in relation to the speed limit five blocks ago, and you don’t even know what the speed limit is in your current location as opposed to five blocks ago.

  42. Union city greens 42

    My ex best friend just voted and gloated. Easy come easier go.

  43. gingercrush 43

    National has done very good in advance voting. Still 50% of votes still to come. Too much pessimism by the left. 50% of votes to go and National’s party vote has typically gone down from this point.

    • boggis the cat 43.1

      The inner-city effect still applies?

      • gingercrush 43.1.1

        Auckland have very large booths that take longer to count than provincial and rural voting booths. So it is a factor. That was why in 2005 the lead reversed so sharply at the end of the night.

        • boggis the cat

          Labour does not appear to have shifted with 97% in. The Greens are down to 5.8%, but should pick up a little from special votes.

          So no real effect seen from late returns?

          • gingercrush

            National down to 46% and Labour edging towards 36%. The Greens vote dropping from earlier is not a surprise either since they don’t do well in big urbans seats in Auckland.

  44. Sabine 44

    so assuming nothing much happens anymore does that mean National will need a coalition partner?

  45. Union city greens 45

    Morgan on three. What a rich prick wanker. Fuck off and retire with your millions, keep your challenges to the greens while you count your wedge. Part time green, just fuck off.

    • Frida 45.1

      Agreed @UCG – I hope he feels satisfied with taking those wasted votes that otherwise would have gone Green or Labour. If he really feels so strongly about poverty, housing, the climate etc, why didn’t he throw his cash and profile behind Labour or the Greens and helped change the government? I have zero respect and a lot of anger for the sputtering fool

  46. lurgee 46

    Some people round here said pretty silly things about Reid Research.

    • gingercrush 46.1

      They were also celebrating the Colmar Brunton poll till the last one. Polls have held up well. I guess Labour need to look at what happened late in the campaign for many people to go back to National.

      • boggis the cat 46.1.1

        Polls have held up well.

        No, they have been all over the place:

        It appears that the last two generally agree, so this may be due to ‘undecided’ voters finally deciding and each polling firm treating that block differently, or it could be a number of other factors.

        Certainly not a particularly tight grouping of results leading in to the election, though not as far out as those in the UK.

        • Craig H

          I think it was the undecideds, and obviously a decent number of them were deciding whether to support National again, and did so.

          • boggis the cat

            Quite possibly. Without the cult of the pony-tail puller, National have had to fall back on bull-shitting and appealing to greed.

            Still, progress is better than no progress.

  47. BM 47

    Must say I’d love to see National do a deal with the greens and cut NZ First out f the equation.

    Be great to see the Greens show a bit pragmatism and get on board with national, seriously Labour tried to destroy you, you owe them nothing.

    • Stuart Munro 47.1

      I’d quite like it too – but it would mean the Gnats would have to abandon their reckless environmental destruction and frauds like the Russian carbon credits, constrain dairy pollution, charge for water, and halt the state funded irrigation schemes.

      Never gonna happen – a disgustingly dishonest, economically incompetent and fundamentally backward party has no appeal for the Greens.

      • BM 47.1.1

        The keyword is pragmatism. The 7% party doesn’t get to tell the 47% party what to do.

        I know the greens are a bit slow on these sort of matters but hopefully, the penny finally drops and the Greens see an opportunity and go for it.

        • KJT

          Why would we drop all principle and go with the lying, cheating, socially and environmentally destructive National.

          That would mean going down the gurgler, as the Māori party has, after betraying our base.

        • McFlock

          If the 47% party wants confidence and supply, it does whatever the fuck is the 7% party’s bottom line.

        • Stuart Munro

          That wouldn’t be pragmatism BM – that would be a sell out. I realize you can’t understand the difference.

        • Incognito

          Pragmatism = whatever it takes to gain or hold on to power

          • Stuart Munro

            Only at its extremes. Pragmatism might include brushing over semantic differences on occasion – but abandoning core policies for the convenience of political enemies is pushing it – however glittery the baubles on offer might be.

            The fact is that the Gnats are an extremist government – they need the principled opposition to sell out or their ultimate punishment may be commensurate with their crimes. And they know (who better?) how bad their crimes are.

        • AB

          Why would a centre left party like the Greens go into coalition with the far right
          National party when it just means more poverty, more inequality, more homelessness and more environmental destruction?
          Madness. The demented Hooten was saying the same thing.

    • lprent 47.2

      A fast way for the Greens to suicide. Not to mention that National has been demonising them for four decades as Values and Greens.

      • KJT 47.2.1

        That’s what BM hopes for. The Greens have made him and his fellow travellers face up to how mean spirited and destructive they are. They don’t like it!

    • Still peddling that bullshit?

      What would that deal look like, exactly? National agrees to take child poverty, water pollution and climate change seriously? Whatever you’re taking, stop taking it, it’s rotting your brain.

      • lprent 47.3.1

        Yeah, just have more lip service from the likes of Nick Smith or Simon Bridges – meaningless.

        National have a important constituency that won’t allow movement on those kinds of areas.

  48. Goatroper 48

    I honestly think labour had this in the bag untill Adern opened her big mouth about Tax

    • Wensleydale 48.1

      The Nats always knew tax was a chink in Labour’s armour, and if Ardern hadn’t mentioned it first, Joyce and English would have tag-teamed her on it later. Given National’s record on pretty much everything else over the past nine years is abysmal, dodgy economics, fudged numbers and outright bullshit are the only sticks they had with which to beat her.

      In other knews, I’m fucking depressed. Obviously Gerry Brownlee has sat on this country’s moral compass, and it’s now in hundreds of tiny pieces.

    • Sumsuch 48.2

      Tax is where they fell down. The 9 year tradition of leading with their chin on this point, as so it’ll be hurrahed to the echo as a sign of true integrity On the other hand if they just said they would raise the upper tax category on income, no problem.

  49. gingercrush 49

    National leading urban, provincial, rural, Auckland and Christchurch votes. Haven’t looked at right and left blocs yet though.

    • swordfish 49.1

      Once the Finals are in (and assuming I have time), I’m planning to do individual Parties and Left/Right Blocs for all cities (ranging in size from Auckland down to Gisborne) …

      … excluding all booths outside of each city’s boundary (crucial for smaller cities subsumed within larger electorates) and including all Maori Roll booths within each city (thus including everyone voting within the boundaries – crucial for heavily Maori cities like Rotorua).

      Party-Vote percentages + 2014-17 swing.

  50. lprent 50

    Ok. Coalition talks.

    I think that National has lost all coalition partners apart from the parasite Act, who gave them no percentage this time.

    No Maori party. No Peter Dunne’s hair.

    The final position won’t be known until the 200k specials are published in October 6th and I don’t expect a coalition before then.

    But we have an interesting position. National has spent the last 12 years demonising Winston and NZ First. They did another serious go at it this time as well as most likely doing the personal smear using information at cabinet level that they shouldn’t have had. Similarly NZ First members and even their MPs aren’t exactly trusting of National.

    It is a poison chalice for both sides.

    The position with a Labour / Green coalition isn’t much better because (ironically) the overlap and agreement between policies including between Green and NZF.

    Personally because I tend to think strategically, I’d almost prefer that NZF goes with National. With the usual stupidity that National has with coalition parties, NZF will spall/fracture out left leaning supporters and drop like a stone. It is likely to cause major problems inside National. Dissension there is good for losing votes.

    It would leave a simplified parliament for Labour in 2021 or earlier.

    • gingercrush 50.1

      National has consumed the whole of the right-bloc. Labour when the tide moves fully and National lose support need to ensure they don’t consume the Greens.

    • lurgee 50.2

      Everything Winston touches turns to excrement. National are welcome to him. It would almost guarantee a Labour-Green victory in 2020. Whereas a Lab-Green-NZ 1st coalition would see Bill “Third Time Lucky” English installed as PM in 2020, with a majority of about 120.

      • greg 50.2.1

        i cant wait to 2020 iam out of this shit hole of a country

        • boggis the cat

          There are fewer countries doing better, unfortunately.

        • lurgee

          New Zealand’s right wing is actually fairly benevolent, but international Western standards. I grew up in Britain. It’s far, far worse than NZ. Ditto Aussie. Ditto America. Don’t even get me started on the French …

          Where are you planning to go? Canada? Sweden?

    • Rosemary McDonald 50.3

      “Ok. Coalition talks.”

      Looks like we’re going to be stuck with NZF.

      Might not be such a bad thing if Winston makes his ‘bottom line’ this….


      “With recent opinion polls suggesting Winston Peters will be king or queen maker after the September 23 election, the NZ First leader has announced that his party wants to increase the minimum wage to $20 an hour.

      This would be done over three years, Peters said in a speech in Tauranga, and NZ First would also introduce a tax package for employers and businesses to negate their increased costs.

      Interestingly Peters’ speech refers to his party’s confidence and supply agreement with the last Labour government between 2005 and 2008 that saw the minimum wage increased by $3 an hour.

      “We insisted that the minimum wage go from $9 per hour to $12 progressively by 2008. That is the biggest rise ever in the shortest time ever in this country’s history,” Peters said.

      Does this suggest that Peters may be leaning towards backing a Labour Party reinvigorated under new leader Jacinda Ardern? On the surface his minimum wage policy may sound more palatable to Labour than National. But Peters will no doubt keep us guessing up to, and probably beyond September 23.

      The minimum wage is currently $15.75 an hour. In June then-Labour leader Andrew Little said Labour wanted to increase it to $16.50 an hour. The Greens want to increase it to $17.75 next year.”

      Sounds good to me.

      Lemons and lemonade and all….

    • Personally because I tend to think strategically, I’d almost prefer that NZF goes with National.

      Christ, yes. Changing the government is the goal, but surviving more than one term also has to be a consideration. If anyone’s going to suffer the voter-repelling effects of coalition with NZ First, I’d much rather it was Bill English than Jacinda Ardern doing the suffering.

    • Rightly or Wrongly 50.5

      Thinking off the top of my head:

      Winnies conditions:

      – Paula Bennett is demoted out of cabinet
      – Winnie gets the choice of Deputy Pm or Foreign Minister plus Racing.
      – NZ First gets policy concessions:
      More cops
      Immigration tightening
      2 more in cabinet
      Oldies get some more goodies
      Winnie gets a knight hood and retires gracefully in 2019
      Taxpayer pays for free Whiskey for Winnie for 2 years

      • lprent 50.5.1

        I suspect that you are one of those political simpletons. At least that is what your list displays about your understanding of nzf

      • Sumsuch 50.5.2

        Very plausible. If it wasn’t maybe I would have considered Peters seriously at some, or any, stage. The guy who a few weeks ago was going to hold a general referendum on the Maori seats. Til Shane Jones, I assume, piped up.

  51. Infused 51

    Let’s do this!

  52. Craig H 52

    Labour now well ahead of their total Party Vote from the last election, after specials etc. 604,535 in 2011 vs 632,032 tonight.

    • gingercrush 52.1

      Labour getting their votes off NZ First and Greens. Not seeing National bleeding votes

      • lprent 52.1.1

        National have lost votes. But they sucked the bit remaining off their coalition members and off NZF.

        Labour has sucked votes of Greens and off NZF.

        I don’t think that either are going to let it go back easy. But neither Greens or NZF died.

        • lurgee

          Yeah, well, you’d expect a party that’s been in power for nine years to lose a few votes.

          This has been a disaster, really.

          • Craig H

            Labour have more new votes than Greens and NZ First lost – it wasn’t all from there. I suspect some of it was Nats, and the Nats are higher than they otherwise would have been because of Conservative voters going back to the Nats.

            • lprent

              Conservatives + UF + some of Act + maybe some of MP.
              Labour also probably got party vote off the MP and Mana/IP

              Essentially most of the vote probably came from people from deceased or dying parties.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 52.1.2

        Special votes tend to decrease national and increase the left block.

        2017 Lab+Green = 41.6% (before special votes)
        2014 Lab+Green = 35.8% (after special votes)

        2017 Nat+Act = 46.5%
        2014 Nat+Act = 47.7%

        There has been a very small swing from NAct to the left, with a little more to come in the special votes most likely.

    • lurgee 52.2

      The Greens, on the otherhand, have got 110,826 votes just now, compared to 2014’s final tally of 257,356. So it looks like robbing James to pay Jacinda, to coin a phrase.

      • BM 52.2.1

        What would be your advice be to the Greens, do a deal with National or stay pure and sit on the sidelines again?

        • boggis the cat

          What is the point of being in government with ‘partners’ who are ideologically opposed to all of your policies?

          So that a couple of people get extra income and perks for some BS ministerial position?

          Winston’s your man, BM.

        • Craig H

          Better to stay on the sidelines, going with the Nats has not ended well for ACT, Maori Party or United Future, and they are all parties with potential centrist support. TOP has a better chance of being the centrist (in terms of being able to go with any given coalition) environment party than the Greens have.

  53. All roads lead to Russel !… and while we were in the cold and rain travelling there were no reporters,…. with a comment about not pandering to an elite…

    Pretty statesmanlike , with a big smile to boot. The Silver Fox.

  54. gsays 54

    Before the angst gets too much, I would like to acknowledge all the folk who had the gumption to stand in this election.
    Regardless of political hue, resources etc, well done.

    It must take courage and this must be a stressful evening.

    Now the work starts locally for us to look out for the folk who will be left behind by this self serving regime.

  55. swordfish 55

    Right Bloc (Govt Parties + Cons)

    2014 (Election Night) 54.4%
    2017 (Currently) 48.3%
    Down 6 points

    Govt Bloc (not including Cons)

    2014 (Election Night) 50.3%
    2017 (Currently) 48.1%
    Down 2 points

    I’ve always assumed former Cons would head in National’s direction … but – from memory – the recent Horizon Poll suggested they were swinging heavily toward NZF (although – post-Supergate – they may indeed have headed back to the Blues like suddenly frightened Reef Fish). Taking into account, of course, historic problems with Horizon. I suspect they’re more accurate now but still by no means perfect.

  56. Glenn 56

    Getting sick of the media saying it’s Peters moral obligation to go with the party with the most votes. There is no morality in politics.

    • boggis the cat 56.1

      It is his ‘moral obligation’ to try to get as much policy through as he can, presuming those voting for NZ First were voting for policy.

      So he should legitimately let each side court NZ First. The side offering the most get NZ First in their coalition.

      (I don’t support NZ First, but this is the situation as I see it.)

    • mpledger 56.2

      If there is any “moral” obligation then it’s for Peters to do the best for New Zealanders.

  57. swordfish 57

    Labour was trending down an hour ago / Nats trending up.

    Now its reversed … Lab 35.9 (pre-9pm) … 35.4 (1 hour ago) … 35.7 (Now)
    Nats back down to 46.2 after reaching 46.7 an hour ago.

    Advance votes then …
    Rural Booths coming in an hour ago ?
    Big City Booths now ?

  58. Exkiwiforces 58

    Sorry to intrude but, it’s sounds like old fat boy has just detonated another nuke measuring 3.4 on the Richter scale in the same area as the other ones.

    Here’s the link:

  59. eco maori 59


    • eco maori 59.1

      To much we can all be proud of our Maori heritage and we all new who to vote for Labour I voted labour you can check if you want time for a change fuck the neo liberals because they have being doing that to me

  60. swordfish 60

    Russell Norman has just conceeded that Turei and the Greens leadership made a “spectacular mistake” with their handling of the benefit fraud admission.

    • lprent 60.1

      It still started a debate that needs to be done. Watch, EITHER there will be a big shift in the way the welfare is delivered, OR it becomes a big issue to do with poverty next election. Both major parties will spend a lot of time dealing with it. This is how parties deal with difficult political issues. It doesn’t matter which party is in power.

      That is a win for the Greens.

      • weka 60.1.1

        yep, plus there is a nascent extra-parliamentary welfare movement, including Turei now out of parliament. If that continues there’s going to be significant pressure from activists too.

    • weka 60.2

      The man who a week before the last election bungled GP messaging and left the electorate believing that the Greens might choose to help National form govt.

      He’s not conceding anything, he’s stating his personal opinion. I’m not very surprised but he’s still wrong. Not sure he said the handling was wrong or if he said the admission was the wrong thing to do fullstops (I took it as the latter).

    • Union city greens 60.3

      He’s right. If she’d paid back the money she would have been good, but she didn’t and she, and the party were punished for it.
      The electoral role issue just added to the problem.
      I wish MT well, but it was a little naive of her to go the route she did without expecting a backlash.

    • esoteric pineapples 60.4

      Attacking Winston as a racist at the campaign launch was a big mistake too, considering he was always going to be the king maker. Despite the Greens coming back with James Shaw, the Green caucus/leadership has to take some responsibility for the drop in support. This shouldn’t be forgotten by the party as it is relieved to be back.

  61. JessNZ 61

    TOP – winning more wasted votes than the Legalise Cannabis Party …

  62. weka 62

    Chloe Swarbrick talking about the Greens having opened the Overton Window.

    • weka 62.1

      The Greens as agitators and leaders in parliament.

      • Incognito 62.1.1

        Gareth Morgan wanted to be a “change agent”.

        • weka

          How did that work out?

          • DoublePlusGood

            About as well as all the other Angry Entitled Mediocre White Man ventures have. He did speak well this evening though.

            • Incognito

              If he’s really committed than TOP won’t go the same way as Internet Party.

              • lprent

                I bet it does. It is a hell of lot harder to develop a party to win multiple elections than it is to run a single election campaign.

              • weka

                He’s all over the place. One minute he wants to build a movement, the next he’s saying he wants to go off on another motorcycling trip and leave all this behind. He’s burned a huge amount of bridges this year in NZ politics, it’s on his integrity to see what he does next.

  63. lprent 63

    Interesting ~2.2 million + 0.2 million over 3.2 million = ~70% turnout

    Last time it was 76% at the end.

    I think we have a large fall in turnout. Doesn’t help – I’d like to see age groups

    • weka 63.1

      That is interesting. Haven’t seen any comment about turnout on twitter tonight, which is pretty weird. Everyone talking about the advanced votes and specials though.

    • boggis the cat 63.2

      Lower turnout suggests that people weren’t swayed by the ‘Jacindamania’ stuff.

      That thirty percent are almost all people likely to favour left-wing policies. The wealthy all vote, while the poorest are the least likely to.

      • Wensleydale 63.2.1

        And yet they have the most to gain. A lot of the young guys I work with just can’t be arsed voting. It’s like it eats into their PlayStation time or something. I’ve railed at them about how almost every decision made by those smirking shits in the Beehive has a direct impact on their daily lives, but it’s like shrieking into the wind. They genuinely don’t give a toss — completely disengaged. How do you fight that?

      • lprent 63.2.2

        Don’t trust my figures that much. There are only estimates of the specials. And I have been drinking and thinking about where else in the world that I could work.

    • Ant 63.3

      I have to special vote, this election I had to try 3 times because the line was so long with people enrolling and voting (had to go back to work). Will be interesting to see those numbers and how dramatically they might change turnout.

    • esoteric pineapples 63.4

      According to TV3 it was a 65 percent turn out

      • Craig H 63.4.1

        It’s 66.6% before specials, which are likely to be 10+%.

      • lprent 63.4.2

        Depends how you define turnout
        If they did it something like use the estimated voting population (and assuming that the specials were 214,000)
        2,169,802 / 3,569,830 = 60.7%
        (2,169,802 + 214,000) / 3,569,830 = 66.8%
        vs using the registered voters as at 22-09-2017
        2,169,802 / 3,252,269 = 66.7%
        (2,169,802 + 214,000) / 3,252,269 = 73.3%
        And then there is the technique that elections.govt use in their post-writ day analysis which we will have to wait for. But it looks like it will be close to 75% of registered voters – similar to last time, and slightly down compared to estimated voting population.

    • Craig H 63.5

      On the numbers of (2.2 + 0.2) / 3.2, that’s 75%, not 70%. However, last time the specials cast were over 0.3 million, so I think it will be even higher than that this time – there at least 0.24 million advance specials, plus whatever overseas votes and election day specials as well, so we’re looking at an increased turnout IMO.

  64. savenz 64

    At the end of the day, the positives are there, voters got rid of the Maori party as the enablers of the National party, got rid of Peter Dunne and National have not won.

    We all knew Natz would have a last minute surge based on lies and deception. Cheating and power is their goal. They have no morals. Even the media commentators are saying Natz would drop their pants to stay in power. It’s all they know.

    And we can also be certain that Winston Peters will know that Natz will screw NZ First over at the first opportunity. If Winston goes with Bill, NZ First will dwindle until like the Maori party, ACT and United Future they become Natz poodle and voters hate them.

    Jacinda should work with NZ First and make the change of government happen that voters have voted for. Shaw has been brilliant to bring back the Greens from the brink and have a clear message to change the government and work with NZ First. Policy wise all three parties agree that the Natz are a disaster for NZ.

    I like the Labour, NZ First, Green government. They will do a much better job that the lying cheating asset selling anti-democratic Natz. This will be Winston’s legacy and I’m sure he does not want his legacy to end up being a poodle for the Natz and it all falling apart after a few years with a dirty politic spin.

    Winston was an excellent foreign minister under the Clark government and was screwed over by the Natz as deputy and treasurer.

    The first thing the new government should do is change the electoral finance act so Natz can’t cheat and sell out to donors outside of NZ interests. In addition it be a criminal offence to lie during the election. That alone would be a massive achievement to democracy in this country.

    As well as importing in 1.5% of voters every year and changing demographics in their favour, Natz are also using lies and deceit to confuse Kiwis from voting so it’s no wonder they are so difficult to win. Its not a fair fight anymore.

    • Anne 64.1

      That’s a superb summary of the situation as it currently stands savenz. Thanks. I’ve saved it for future reference.

      Bearing in mind both the Greens and Labour should benefit from the specials, I think the scenario you paint will be even more acceptable after Oct 6th.

      Watch for the Nats – aided and abetted by our shallow, sycophantic MSM – try to distort, misrepresent and blatantly lie in their efforts to manipulate a coalition between the Nats and NZ First. How Winston handles these negotiations will be very telling.

      • Melanie Scott 64.1.1

        I really like yours and savenz’s take. The only think that rattles me a bit is the maps Gower put up towards the end of the TV3 broadcast. They showed Auckland a sea of blue (with two small extra pockets of red over what were there before) and the same for Christchurch (which was 100% blue last time.) It would appear to show that a huge majority of city dwellers support National – if only to protect their speculative property portfolios. Very depressing. I had hoped a more sophisticated urban outlook would emerge which showed concern about the environment and the homeless.

        • Craig H

          Not sure about Auckland, but that’s misleading in Chch because there are only 3 truly urban electorates left here after the hollowing out following the earthquakes – Chch Central, Chch East and Ilam. Port Hills includes Banks Peninsula (technically part of Chch urban boundaries but added recently), while Waimakariri and Selwyn include a lot of provincial and rural Canterbury. Ilam is the richest part of town, so hardly surprising that it remains Blue,

        • Anne

          Don’t worry Melanie Labour is well represented in Auckland. South and West Auckland is solidly Labour. The North and East is National. I was watching the RNZ coverage on Freeview 50 so didn’t see Gower’s map but imagine it was skewered to make it look like all Auckland is National. For example the central city suburbs of Mt. Eden, Remuera, Epsom, Parnell and to a lesser extent Grey Lynn are on the eastern flank of the city so Gower is performing his usual misleading act.

        • Incognito

          I find many of those maps misleading as it doesn’t do justice to reality. It would be better to use a sliding (gradient) scale ranging from 100% blue to 100% red, for example. Even better would be to use coloured & sized dots (circles) to represent party votes; it can even be done by booth if desired (in other countries this makes more sense because there’s only one vote but they also tend to have many more parties than NZ’s paltry four + H). I think there are many ways to come up with better, more accurate and more informative maps.

    • Brokenback 64.2

      The political pressure needs to continue from here & elsewhere.

      The dog whistle about party with the highest % of votes has been around since Natz dipped in the polls in June & it was obvious that Dunne was dog tucker.

      A catchy little battle hymn from yesteryear might steel the coalition for democracy.

      Levon Helm with avery good version of the Sonny terry/Brownie McGee song

    • cleangreen 64.3

      1000% savenz,

      We now have a National ‘minority Government’ ‘frozen by oppostion parties, MP’s.

      So from now on; – for national to pass any ammandments/changes’ they will be frozen in time by voted down.

      Effectively National will be a Government in default,!!!!!!!

      So within a year a ‘vote of no confidence’ will trigger another election it is as simple as that!!!!!

      We have them by the balls.

  65. Macro 65

    It will be interesting to see how many “specials” there are. If they contain a lot of new voters then the results could swing more left than they currently are.
    Still a very disappointing result with it all hanging on the whimsy of Winston. Not a prospect that bodes well. Will the Maori seats remain?

    • weka 65.1

      Can’t imagine Labour or the Greens or National being willing to have a referendum on the Māori seats.

      • esoteric pineapples 65.1.1

        Yes, that’s a huge thing. It’s almost certain now that New Zealand will get rid of the Maori seats. The referendum is going to be hugely toxic and the level of resent from Maori is going to be huge.

        There’s also the fact that NZ First wants to drop corporate tax to 25 percent for companies trading in NZ and 20 percent for exporters.

      • Union city greens 65.1.2

        But what about super? English says yes, Jacinda says no

    • miravox 65.2

      Jacinda gave Winston Pike River in her speech… that’s a bottom line, so she’s indicated she’s willing to talk – as did James Shaw – over half voted for change, he noted.

      But then, he campaigns on populism, and them makes his decision in his own way.

      • weka 65.2.1

        Good point re Pike River.

        Not so convinced about the vote for change. Is a NZF vote that?

        • miravox

          I’m not so convinced either – just that Shaw was inclusive. Hoping against hope, possibly.

          Special votes, special v…. spec… as Winston said, we’ll have to wait and see. I’ll have to get some ear plugs if I have to listen to English, Bennett and Brownlee et al. for another 3 years.

          I could have a wee look around for the next National MP who is going to resign for a bit of amusement I guess, but that’s not going to help the people they’ve ruined. I despair!

        • Brokenback

          The major Change – the key ,before any of the mooted changes that can be made , is to roll back the pillars of neo-liberalism.
          The greens & NZF have more in common over this than either has with labour

        • Incognito

          Looking at the overall result there’s very little to detect a change as such. In fact, one could argue it is depressingly similar. I also fail to imagine that NZF is for change because all I see is Winston …

  66. swordfish 66

    With 98% counted on Election Night


    2014 (Election Night)

    2017 (Election Night)
    Up 7 points


    Right Bloc (Govt Parties + Cons)

    2014 (Election Night)

    2017 (Election Night)
    Down 6 points


    Govt Bloc (not including Cons)

    2014 (Election Night)

    2017 (Election Night)
    Down 2.5 points

  67. gingercrush 67

    National hedging their bet on being the larger voting bloc. National greater than Labour+Greens. Even with specials National will be great than Labour+Greens. That will be their argument to Winston Peters.

    • Sabine 67.1

      As it is National must go hat in hand to either the Greens or NZFirst and ask for consideration as they can’t go it alone. Poor things.
      Pass the tea and the popcorn, this could be fun. And as the old saying goes, size is relative 🙂 it matters how you use it.

      • weka 67.1.1

        They can’t go to the Greens tho, so it’s Peters or opposition for 3 years. Which gives Peters a lot of power.

        • Sabine

          i know i know, but can’t we just have fun with the idea of National coming knocking at the door begging 🙂 just for a minute or so 🙂

          • weka

            lol, I don’t think even National have the balls to ask the Greens for support. But yes, popcorn. There’s still MSM idiots tonight talking up a N/G coalition.

            • Sabine

              i have lived with MMP my whole life so here i am devils advocate.

              It would be a more stable coalition. The bobbleheads of the stupid box know that. Winston is a loose canon at this stage, will he go for legacy and save the country or will he go for personal gratification? Who knows.
              He is – should he go with National – not a guaranteed partner of crime, and could potentially throw them into opposition at any given moment simply by walking away from the coalition to form one with the opposition.
              Believe me we have had some awesome coalition agreements in Germany and everything is possible.

              In saying that the Greens of NZ are not the Greens (Fundy and Realos) of Germany so i would venture that currently a coalition would be out of question and considering that our house here voted for them i am happy about that.

              But i can see why the National Party would prefer to go with the Greens.

              Popcorn…..a round of popcorn for everyone.

              I am silently rooting for a Grand coalition between L/G/NZF with Winston coming to play the last game of grand statesmen and ushering his Party into the future as a serious partner.

              • weka

                I agree, National would prefer the Greens over Peters. Pity for them they’ve got no chance, lol.

                Labour and the Greens have always said they’re work with Peters, so it makes sense to me. Ardern was hedging her bets on it tonight though, not really sure why, it’s not like there are any other options.

                • Sabine

                  she got the ball rolling, what else can she do?

                  She needs both, the Greens and NZF, so might as well admit it and get stuff done. In essence, take one for the whanau Winston. Create your legacy, work for us with us and be loved for ever. Might as well continue tonight with the work on changing the government. Voting was the first step, now comes phase two build a coalition agreement and present it to the public. Let’s do this.

                  • weka

                    I think it’s doable, but of course comes down to Peters.

                    I was a bit surprised she wasn’t more proactive on the idea though. I think they need to front foot this strongly. Already the MSM are presenting National as moving towards forming a govt.

                    • Sabine

                      yep, and it means nothing if the Fox don’t come to the game.
                      If National has any sense they will call back the dogs and tell them to stop barking until they get their marching orders. Essentially if feels like they want to bully Winston into an agreement with National and i am not sure how he personally feels about that. lol

                      So there is really no need to commit tonight.
                      The ball has been thrown, and the game begins in earnest tomorrow.

                    • weka

                      Just relistened to Shaw’s speech and it sounds like he will be talking to Ardern tomorrow, so I’m sure there will something more said after that (Monday I guess).

                    • Sabine

                      @ Weka

                      yes, i have no doubt that Jacinda and James will meet and plan. It is two weeks until we get the special votes count and a lot of water will flow down the river.

                      Time for sleeps and a little satisfaction. National cannibalized itself in its greed, its rudeness, its selfishness and is now dependent on Winston Peters. lol, lol, lol. Again, lol, lol, lol.

                • cleangreen

                  100% Weka.

      • greg 67.1.2

        there going to have to pay a ransom for anything and they can forget any asset sales and when the property bubble pops its all there fault

    • Incognito 67.2

      58 + 1 versus 9 seats.

  68. esoteric pineapples 68

    I would like to thank the New Zealand main stream media for endless articles attacking Jacinda Adern

    • boggis the cat 68.1

      That’s like thanking lions for attacking zebra.

      Whenever there is a swing in the fortunes of a group, there will inevitably be a long tail of poisonous editorial attacks. Unless the group is wealthy people, obviously — can’t go attacking the boss, the MSM only does punching down.

  69. savenz 69

    Also another take home from the election is the parties need to work strategically together. They failed to work together strategically in Northland and Auckland central, to bring home the electorate vote (and probably other places too). Many voters want to change the government, they just can’t work out which party to vote for to do this, thus the majority of anti National votes become split and National slips through.

  70. gingercrush 70

    Interestingly the bellweather seats no longer have relevance. Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Northcote and Waimakariri have all gone for National. Only Hamilton West goes to Lab+NZF+GRN.

  71. swordfish 71

    TVNZ One News Live Election Results website has “Jami-Lee RICE (LAB)” leading in Botany.

    Do they mean, per chance, Jami-Lee ROSS (NAT) ???

    • cleangreen 71.1

      Swordfish, Yes that was an error for sure but considing the errors we saw elsewhere this error is couuriosly odd .

      Who would choose the word Rice over Ross? – a chinese scutineer? Ha ha ha!

  72. ianmac 72

    Gritted my teeth to watch English speech. What struck me was that the gathered believers did not really respond. Glimpses of the crowd showed only a small loud percentage were briefly applauding. They are not winning yet but there must be some honest National members who dislike the campaign’s dishonesty.
    I hope.

    • Sabine 72.1

      what is he speechifying about? that he needs a partner to form a coalition and that the partners that are have been vilified by his Party for the longest time and that this is a moment of ‘never be unkind to anyone as you never know when you might need them’ scenario and that essentially he is now a beggar? Or a naked emperor?

    • Robert Guyton 72.2

      That’s how I saw it, ianmac. Forced merriment. Anxiousness. A train fit for wrecking.

    • Incognito 72.3

      It was boring, pre-scripted (notes), and a strong call for status quo and “stability”. It was not victorious because National has lost all its previous coalition partners and two seats.

    • cleangreen 72.4


      When Joyce’s face and English’s face filled my screen I pressed the mute button and turned on the hi-fi CD with the microphones & speakers and the wifey and me sung along with George Strait and his ‘Ocean front property, – a song I guess Winnie will be singing to Bill bloody bullshit English now!!!!!!!

      That song all of a sudden come back as a second time around hit with me & wifey.

  73. useyourhead 73

    what a fuck up!!!! national ran the the most shit campaign i have ever seen them run and labour still couldnt get their shit together.. New China welcome. Have our houses and land. Get a real cahrecter like john cambell in there . politics is no longer about policy. John key the smiling shark proved that. whipe the canvas clean and put some people in there that can get the job done..United we stand divided we fall was the foundation of the red party. will the next michael savage please stand up.

    • gingercrush 73.1

      National ran a shit campaign until the last few weeks. Those last two weeks Jacinda started to look tired and English looked reinvigorated.

    • cleangreen 73.2


      your excellent comment deserved encouragement.

      You will be pleased to know that Winston has a policy to turn RNZ into a fully fuctioning media platform now with a full compliment of NZ stuff including a return to real “investigative jornalism” backed up with several “public affairs” programs as we had before national cut them alll out for fear of being attacked when they instituted the ‘austerity, coupled with the sale of assets and closure of so many public services & regional rail services.

      Labour will also be wanting a return to real ‘public affairs’ and also with giving regional communities a voice again.

      You must know that National under propagandist (joyce) agressively suppressed the public owned media staff both inside TVNZ and RNZ for their own interest, and used them for their propaganda purposes entirely.

      So National have lost their voice now also, – so National will now become a target by public owned media close scrutiny from this time going forward.

      First target offthe rank against national will be when the economics open the “real books” of the nine years of national playing with probabilty of Joyce’s falsely ‘doctored’ finance money public purse as he did falsely claim Labour had a $11.7 Billion dollar hole that will now be a noose around his redneck head. That will look so good having him in the public media dock now finally.

      A very welome advancement in our journey back to democracy.

  74. mosa 74

    Wow the good people of the media have decided National and their friends control half of New Zealand.

    They can have have it and the rest of us will have the better half that address the issues the left have been campaigning on.

    Bring it on.

  75. Robert Guyton 75

    The Green Party wasn’t exterminated. The Labour Party through Jacinda, and The Greens, through James Shaw, broadcast intelligent confidence in the coming negotiations. English looked small, conceding that National would have to win Winston’s favour in order to govern. How the Mighty National Party has fallen!! This is great theatre and great politics. Lovin’ this!

    • boggis the cat 75.1

      National with 46% to Labour on 36%, and the Greens at 6%, isn’t a ‘win’.

      The likely outcome is NZ First in coalition with a clueless National, buggering up the country for a further three years. Labour have made somewhat of a recovery, but the Greens have fallen on their faces, and the message of the left can now be legitimately ignored by the MSM as having been repudiated by the vote.

      That voter turnout rate needs to get lifted. Labour and the Greens need to focus on getting people to vote.

      • Robert Guyton 75.1.1

        “The likely outcome is NZ First in coalition with a clueless National”

        • boggis the cat

          NZ First policies align better with National. Pushing the Nats slightly leftward is easier than trying to drag a Labour-Green bloc to the right.

          • Incognito

            It depends on which dimension you’re talking about, e.g. Vote Compass would align NZF more with Labour with regard to economic policies.

      • gingercrush 75.1.2

        If they haven’t voted this time when will they vote? Labour+Greens should not be working on the bloc that just don’t want to vote. Focus on the provinces and Auckland because they still went with National.

      • swordfish 75.1.3

        Probably Nats = 44.5-45.0% / Lab + Green = 43.0-43.5% after Specials

        • boggis the cat

          That seems too high. I would expect the Greens to get another seat from National, and maybe Labour. They’ll still be short compared to National (plus that tactical ACT seat).

  76. The Chairman 76

    Voter turnout was disappointing. Around 66%

    • Craig H 76.1

      Before special votes, which are likely to be at least 10% as they were last time.

      • The Chairman 76.1.1

        It’s now (yesterday) being reported that voter turnout is up. At nearly 79% with 15% special votes still to be processed.

        And if voter turnout is higher, it’s disappointing the opposition didn’t perform better.

  77. millsy 77

    Disappointing, but not surprising. I knew National would take this out the moment that the Newshub poll was published a couple of weeks ago. The farmers were squealing like stuck pigs and National was scaremongering about tax.

    Good to see the Maori Party gone. They sold out their people out, and what is even more sickening about the whole thing, is that MP grandees are going to spend the next week blaming everything but their association with National for what has happened. Flavell shouldnt be downcast though. A cushy job at a Quango would probably come his way.

    United Future has sunk without trace, Damien Light’s 15 mins of fame has run out. I expect the party to fold in the next year or two.

    A Labour/Green/NZ First govenment is unlikely at this point in time, but NZ First will be able to stop National from straying too far for the right, not a bad thing, and even better, the Hologram reckons he is going to sit this term out if NZ First/National do hook up.

    And a word to Jacinda – Take a break tomorrow, because come Monday, the 2020 campaign begins.

  78. Peter 78

    The bottom line is that only one third of the voters chose Labour as their party vote.

    So logically those who support Labour are a minority.

    Get used to it, and don’t squeal.

    [lprent: Looks you can’t use a calculator. But figure it like this National got 998,813 on the night out of 3,252,269 enrolled voters – that will be less than a third.
    In other words National are a minority. Please don’t squeal as you try to chisel a thought into your dimwitted head. ]

    • Robert Guyton 78.1

      MMP. How many voted for a not-National/left wing party?
      In any case, Winston will decide our fate – National or Labour/Green. Why would he choose National? We are all merely guessing. Who has solid grounds for claiming one way or the other? No one. It’s up in the air. Which means celebrating National’s success is a mistake.

      • Sabine 78.1.1

        Robert, he is not celebrating he is projecting 🙂

        how was your day in the garden? i did build my raised box, filled it up nicely with some lovely donated compost and am ready to plant. Spring, a good time for renewal and rebirth.

        • Robert Guyton

          Hi Sabine – Spring, we are in love with Her 🙂
          Lifted 80 apple trees, with help from The Corrections team; strong young men and women and keen – tomorrow we plant the trees in two new country town orchards, with the help of folk living there. By the time the election coverage began, I was well tired and the wine only added to the feeling. Perfect weather.

          • Sabine

            true, it was stunning today.

            my final tally of trees found in my little overgrown garden that bought last year, peach, plums, apples, lemon, grapefruit, crab apple, red currant, raspberry (i should be so lucky) and loquat (?). so yeah, Spring she is putting on a show and today was a time of getting the hands dirty. Tomorrow i shall finish my planter box for the veggies.

    • Sabine 78.2

      the bottom line is that National needs Winston. Get used to it and don’t squeal. 🙂

      • Robert Guyton 78.2.1

        Yes, they do but Winston can choose where he invests his magnanimity: could be left, could be right. Fun and games.

        • Sabine

          True that, but National needs Winston, he does not need them. That is the point of difference. IF at any stage they piss of Winston and he pulls out they are, well for lack of better word, fucked. Karma, she ain’t nice when she is pissed of. And National is just going to meet her in all her glory.

    • millsy 78.3

      First troll of the night.

    • cleangreen 78.4

      100000% Iprent well done.

  79. r0b 79

    Could’ve been better.

    Could’ve been worse.

    We live in interesting times.

    • Robert Guyton 79.1

      We do. Who can accurately predict what will happen?
      No one.
      Bold claims are nought but puffery.
      Very interesting times indeed.

  80. gingercrush 80

    Wellington and Dunedin went to Labour. Christchurch just still with National and Auckland split with a very strong centre-north vote for National and a south-west vote for Labour. Rural went National, provincial went National though softer.

    • Patricia 80.1

      Talking to many immigrants voting they all preferred to back a winning side. And because Auckland is full of immigrants we have diverse electorates – South staunch Labour and North and newer areas more for National.

  81. CC 81

    Good show – those National fuckers will have to clean up their own shit before a progressive government sorts out the way of the future. Waiting to see how Epsom’s voters cope with refugees with deep pockets who are going to escape Trump’s Nth Korea stand-off.

  82. Go to bed ! Elections over ! 🙂

    Just kidding , folks,… carry on people.

    • cleangreen 82.1

      Ha ha ha Wild Katipo.

      I am very buoyed by the result here as it stands we really do have a “hung Government” for sure and Winston will want a final ‘legacy’ to the 33 yrs he has fought to return NZ to a elaritarian society with a labour lead government over trying to cobble together a ‘legacy’ project with a badly damaged dying National carcass now, and he definatley wants to be left as a legacy to saveNZ in our history for sure.

      Very interseting times that bode well for us all on the “Save NZ” project.

  83. simonm 83

    Best part of evening has been watching the Vichy Maori Party concede.They propped up a corrupt the National govt for 3 years and now they’ve paid the price.

    Sayonara Marama and Te Ururoa. You won’t be missed.

    • Bit of Utu going on there it seems, poetic justice in one way for being spineless, but then again , could’ve worked well with a Labour led govt coalition…

      Like a lot of things in this election,… just topsy turvy.

    • lprent 83.2

      Looks like the bet made by the Labour Maori caucus and candidates worked. If they didn’t allow room for the ploy of “split vote, get two MPs” by going electorate only, then the Maori party wound up with no electoral space. That plus the general dislike of the Maori parties results over 12 years.

      • WILD KATIPO 83.2.1

        Pretty much ,… still,… I kind of liked Flavell despite of myself ,… and Fox,.. well ,… she is a real fighter… I hope they don’t give it away. There’s some merit in being at the table no matter what govt is in to represent Maori ,… but National is just pure cancer to any coalition partner. Just a shame they weren’t backing Labour / Greens at the time, still , that’s politics.

  84. This from Sabine :

    … ” I am silently rooting for a Grand coalition between L/G/NZF with Winston coming to play the last game of grand statesmen and ushering his Party into the future as a serious partner ” …

    You are not alone , 46% ( majority ) on Stuffs little vote thingy reckon the same. Its pretty clear that’s what people are envisioning and wanting.

  85. Craig H 85

    Total number of enrolled voters 2017: 3,252,269 = 91.1% of potential voters
    Total number of enrolled voters 2014: 3,140,417 = 92.6% of potential voters
    (potential voters is estimated using info from Stats NZ)

    Total number of preliminary votes 2017: 2,166,878 = 66.6%
    Total number of preliminary votes 2014: 2,112,522 = 67.2%
    (preliminary votes includes advance votes, but not special votes, and 99.8% of ordinary votes cast for both elections were counted on the night)

    Total number of advance votes 2017: 1,240,740
    Total number of advance votes 2014: 630,775

    Known specials 2017: 214,585
    (total advance votes – counted advance votes, although some may be disallowed later)

    Total number of overseas votes 2014: 40,132
    Total number of permitted (i.e. counted) special votes 2014: 302,194 (includes the overseas votes) – 331,005 were cast

    Advance votes in 2011 were 334,558, but special votes increased in 2014 over 2011 even with substantially increased advance voting, so that may happen again to some extent. Typical percentage of specials to be permitted is 92%, so about 200,000 of the advanced specials will likely be allowed, plus overseas votes of 40,000, plus whatever number of election day specials. Based on that, I think turnout is likely to be about the same or slightly higher than 2014, but it doesn’t look like much more (as a percentage), if any.

    • lprent 85.1

      After I redid it, those are (roughly) the figures I came up with. It is probably similar to 2014 against registered voters. Slightly less on a population basis.

      Depends the numbers of overseas votes and the numbers of specials disallowed or on election day.

      I can’t see any reason why the specials and overseas votes ratios would change significantly. So National down and NZF down. Labour pretty static. Greens up.

  86. Craig H 86

    Preliminary National votes 2014: 1,010,464 / 48.06%
    Final National votes 2014: 1,131,501 / 47.04%

    Preliminary Labour votes 2014: 519,146 / 24.69%
    Final Labour votes 2014: 604,534 / 25.13%

    Preliminary Green votes 2014: 210,764 / 10.02%
    Final Green votes 2014: 257,356 / 10.7%

    Preliminary NZ First votes 2014: 186,031 / 8.85%
    Final NZ First votes 2014: 208,300 / 8.66%

    That strongly suggests that Labour and the Greens will get a significant boost from specials, likely to be a total of 1-1.5% while National will likely drop around 1%.

  87. On speaking of NZ First,…

    … ” We don’t like extremists, – we believe in laws and policy’s that support the mass majority of New Zealanders , and not just a small elite ,… who may have gotten control of the political system and the financial funding of political party’s , … shows that in this campaign ” …

    – Winston Peters.


  88. illuminatedtiger 88

    Looking forward to seeing the special votes. Non-scientific but myself and everyone else I know in the Tokyo expat community were backing Labour.

  89. cleangreen 89

    Onward with Jacinda, Winnie and James.

    A very good morning my very good people of NZ.

  90. Cave Johnson 90

    I’m calling Winston’s preference for Labour NZ First coalition, with Greens forced to promise confidence and supply from outside.

  91. cleangreen 91

    RADIO NZ Katherine Ryan must be removed/fired as this morning she is sticking pins into Labour greens and NZ First.
    Ryan is a troll for National at Radio NZ still even today.

    Bring back Kim Hill and some sanity Radio NZ.

  92. AB 92

    If Winston does go into coalition with L/G , will there be riots from National supporters who believe they have this fictitious ‘moral right’ to govern based on the numbers? Add that misconception to their naturally high levels of entitlement and it could be an explosive mixture.

    • Cave Johnson 92.1

      Plenty of people still struggling to understand MMP., including Kathryn Ryan and some others in the media. There’s nothing to be gained by eating your friends as National may be soon to discover.

    • Incognito 92.2

      There are two “I’s” in “coalition”. The ghost of FPP still lingers strongly in New Zealand. It may something to do with neoliberalism …

  93. Philise 93

    This is going to be an absolute cluster. To think that three political parties are going to be able to work together, when outside of the last 2 months, Labour hasn’t been able to keep its own house in order…people are dreaming if they think this is going to end well.
    Here’s how I see it playing out – Lab/NZF/Greens will get into power – endless bickering and power grabs over the next 3yrs will have the voting public fed up with politicians and we’ll end up with bald/middle aged white males in the National Party running the country again.
    The only speech which remotely resonated last night was Gareth Morgan’s…inequality and unfairness will continue..Labour have promised no new taxes…NZF will not let Labour go after the farmers..so what is actually going to change? Other than the fact that the government will be disfunctional over the next 3yrs. Rant over.

    • Cave Johnson 93.1

      It really only takes a two-way. The Greens will be largely irrelevant lap-dogs provided they aren’t directly provoked. They are really just the left wing of the Labour party.

  94. Brian 94

    Another election won by the mainstream media!

    If we get an LGNZF government the first thing they need to do is purge national TV and radio of National Party clarions (you know who), just as National have done during the last 9 years.

    They should also attack the Herald at every opportunity by reminding them of their reporting omissions during the National regime, and calling out their political reporters for who they are- National Party Propagandists.

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