Election Night Live Blogging: The Live Post

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 pm, November 8th, 2008 - 193 comments
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If the existence or nature of this post confuses you hopefully you will find the answer over here.

7.01pm Ok here we go! I expect there won’t be too much to live blog for the first hour or so…

7.15pm Party vote currently: Nat 48%, Lab 32%, Greens 6%, NZF 4.4%, Act 3.3%, Maori 1.5%, Prog 1%, United 0.9%. Less than 4% counted.

7.24pm Party vote currently: Nat 49%, Lab 32%, Greens 6%, NZF 4.6%, Act 3.3%, Maori 1.8%, Prog 0.9%, UF 0.8%. Still less than 4% counted.

7.35pm In the pivotal electorates – Kaye ahead in Auckland Central, Wong in Botany, Wagner in Chch Central, MacIndoe in Ham W, Sio in Mangere, Bridges in Tauranga, Plimmer in PN, Hipkins in Rimutaka, Bennett in Waitakere, Robertson in Wel Central, Greensill in H-W, Horomia in I-R, Katene in TTT.

7.47pm With only 5.3% counted in Tauranga it isn’t looking that flash for Winston – Bridges has already got a margin of 1841.

7.54pm Party vote with 5.4% counted: Nat 49%, Lab 32%, Green 6.2%, Maori 2.2%, Act 3.3%, Prog 0.9%, UF 0.8%

8.07pm TVNZ is doing a news update thingy. Basically looks to me like justification for putting camera crews with each of the party leaders, although they were pretty pictures. Advanced and absentee votes are up a third on last election apparently.

8.14pm Looks like Botany isn’t going to be all that interesting – Pansy Wong has over 1800 and Kenneth Wang with 364, he’s not even second currently, with 6.5% counted.

8.18pm To be honest I find all the media projections of how many seats and what coalition arrangements at this stage really pointless. Sorry if that burst anyone’s bubble!

8.24pm Party vote with 11.5% counted: Nat 49%, Lab 31%, Greens 6.2%, Maori 2.1%, Act 3.4%, Progs 0.8%, UF 0.8%.

8.31pm Jordan Carter (who is a mate) has nearly double the number of votes of Roger Owen Douglas, which warms my heart a little.

8.34pm Ok I am going to take a brief pizza break. Let’s hope nothing interesting happens in the interim, but I’m sure you’ll all cope admirable if it does.

8.39pm I can report that That Ex-Expat makes fantastic pizza. Also, not looking good in Auckland Central for Tizard.

8.40pm Beaumont behind in Maungakiekie but not big time.

8.44pm Hughes definitely behind in Otaki, Auchinvole ahead by nearly 500 in WC-T, Bennett ahead in Waitakere but quite small count there so far?

8.45pm Party vote with 21.8% counted: Nat 48%, Lab 31%, Greens 6.3%, Act 3.5%, NZF 4.4%, Maori 2.2%, I think I’m going to stop with the Progs and UF unless they come up to 2nd MP territory. Kaye still ahead in Akl Central.

8.51pm Ham West looking bad for Labour, but Carter still beating Douglas! 😉 Mallard only slightly ahead in his seat, with 9% counted.

8.56pm WTF, Jonathan Young (Nat) is still ahead of Harry Duynhoven in New Plymouth!

8.57pm Taupo looks like it is gone to Louise Upston (Nat) and Bridges is now about 5000 ahead of Peters in Tauranga. Rick Barker also behind in Tukituki

8.59pm Robertson a little ahead of Franks in Wel Central.

9.00pm Looks like Steve Chadwick is gone in Rotorua, which is a shame because she’s been a very good local MP apparently. She’s over 2000 behind now, so that’s that probably. Wang still coming 3rd in Botany, by a margin, but Act’s party vote is holding up well (not that Wang’ll benefit, he’s not on the list)

9.05pm Wel Central close-ish, Robertson 200 ahead of Franks. Party vote with 37% counted Nat 48%, Lab 32%, Greens 6.4%, Act 3.6%, NZF 4.25%. Pillay back in front in Waitakere.

9.08pm Shipley on one of the telly stations, I’ve lost track of which one. One of my guests has pointed out she’s the only female PM to have lost an election to date, let’s hope that stays true, but it’s not looking that great right now.

9.11pm Duncan Garner didn’t have any sound at the Nats HQ, and we were all quite glad about that when he tapped Christine Rankin – argh! Sadly the sound is back now.

9.15pm Ok I’m going to take a few of my Pivotals off the watch list: Bridges is hugely ahead in Tauranga, Rotorua is gone to National, Mangere is solid for Labour’s Sio, Taupo has fallen to Upston (National), Wong is over 3000 ahead of the Labour candidate in Botany (Wang is third).

9.20pm Wellington Central is still surprisingly close…

9.21pm Otaki has tightened up hugely, 15-ish votes in it with nearly 50% counted! National candidate Young still ahead in New Plymouth, is Duynhoven on the list?

9.23pm Gap is closing a little between National and Labour. Really needs to be no more than 10% imho, currently 14%. Act’s vote holding up, Greens is well under the anticipated polling.

9.26pm Otaki widening out again with 51% counted. It’s looking like Otaki, WCT and Akl Central are going to be very tight.

9.27pm Some woman who sounds like Michelle Boag (but is not because Boag is on the other channel) is trying to talk up Auckland Central as a rock solid safe Labour seat, when National have in fact been talking for months about taking it, and everyone left-of-centre has been quietly worrying.

9.29pm Maungakiekie very close, 80 votes in it last I checked. Very slow count though.

9.31pm Duynhoven is still behind in New Plymouth, not a massive amount but quite big.

9.33pm Auckland Central still very close, has Tizard been in front at all though? Franks back ahead of Robertson with 51% counted, but again very tight.

9.35pm Labour now at 33%, National nearly down to 46%…

9.36pm National is definitely slowly sliding, Labour slowly gaining, and I note that some of the counts in the big South Auckland seats are very slow. Maungakiekie also very slow.

9.38pm Someone asked in comments about the importance of losing electorates for Labour – basically they clustered a whole lot of these marginal seats just below winnable on their list. So if they win the electorate (Chch Central, Auckland Central, Rimutaka, no doubt others) then that’s one less List MP, which potentially changes the shape of the caucus. It’s also a psychological thing I guess – National has not won Auckland Central in my memory.

9.40pm Here at my place we are all yelling our disapproval at the telly as John Boscawen comes on TV3. Urgh.

9.42pm Ok new list of marginals: New Plymouth, Waitakere, Maungakiekie, Akl Central, Chch Central, Wel Central, WC-T, Te Tai Tonga. The gap between Peter Dunne and Charles Chauvel in Ohariu is not actually huge either… Hughes still over 500 behind in Otaki, Lees-Galloway now over 500 ahead in PN, Labour candidate Hipkins nearly 500 ahead in Rimutaka (Ron Mark no where to be seen).

9.49pm I’m sure you all wanted to know this – the baby is sleeping soundly, snoring away, despite the noise from our place and a whole lot of fireworks outside. This result for the Greens is really disappointing. Either they have to come up a lot of the polls were just miles out.

9.50pm Te Tai Tonga is not looking great for Okeroa, Maori Party’s Angeline Greensill is over 300 ahead.

9.51pm National still going down and Labour still going up, but very very very slow. Which suggests this isn’t going to be like 2005. Must check the returns in the big South Auckland seats.

9.54pm National now under 46%, Labour over 33%…

9.55pm On current returns Greens looking at 2 new MPs (8 total) – Catherine Delahunty and Kevin Hague.

9.56pm John Campbell has just gone on about how fascinating Mangere is when Field is hugely behind Sio and it’s all over rover.

9.57pm Shawn Tan has now officially got more votes in Mt Roskill than I got in Epsom for the Alliance in 2002 😉

10.05pm The ex-expat has just explained to me that what John Campbell was just saying about swing votes means that National are further ahead at the moment than they were at the same in 2005. It’s good to have her interpreting.

10.06pm The big rural South Island seats are all finals now, all National, no surprises there.

10.07pm Now we’re all gossiping about student association people we have known, as we reflect on Chris Hipkins (ex VUWSA) looking safer in Rimutaka. New Plymouth only 200 votes in it, 97% counted. I’ve just checked and Duynhoven is not on the list so he could be gone. Which I guess is good for renewal!

10.12pm The ex-expat is working out who is likely to be out for Labour, definitely Dave Hereora at this time.

10.13pm Winston is on telly, I think he’s going to conceded Tauranga but not the party vote. He looks a bit toasted.

10.15pm Kaye is now over 1000 ahead in Auckland Central, looks like Tizard won’t make it on the list (although we are still doing the numbers). But my that Jordan Carter is still ahead of Roger Douglas in Hunua. Waaaaaaay behind Paul Hutchinson of course, and Douglas looks like he’ll get in on the list, but I’m trying to find a silver lining damnit!

10.18pm Winston has tears in his eyes, awwww! (I mean that sincerely, he reminds me of my Dad when he does that). He is so much less grumpy than usual on election night. Maybe losing agrees with him? What ever will he do next? “For a while we’ll be free now” he just said. I’m not sure who the “we” is. Looks like Winston is conceding the party vote too?

10.20pm New Plymouth has closed up again – National candidate is only 100 ahead. Winston has promised to rebuild and comeback. Arl has pointed out he should have done his “last word” with a sign 😉

10.24pm Labour is over 33.5% and National nearly down to 45.5%. Still closing too slowly. Dunne is back alone (but I think we knew that already really). NZF has fourth biggest party vote but isn’t back in Parliament.

10.26pm Rimutaka final gives Hipkins the seat, the counts in the big urban seats are significantly behind though, Pillay and Bennett going back and forth in Waitakere. Arl reckons Winston looks relieved. Reid Katene is still ahead in TTT. Final for Auckland Central gives it to Kaye by a bit under 2000 votes – Denise Roche (Greens candidate) got 3695.

10.29pm Tizard is out of Parliament, O’Connor could be too – at 37 on the Labour list and about 700 behind Auchinvole in WCT with 98% counted.

10.35pm Ok by our calculation based on the party vote at the moment, Labour’s list will get in to about no. 36 which is Stuart Nash. Carmel Sepuloni is no 35 and would be a fantastic MP, she should be in on this! O’Connor, Tizard, Burton, Okeroa, Gallagher, Hereora, Wall, Soper would be out in terms of this list calculation, plus Duynhoven because of losing his seat. Labour’s party vote may come up of course…

10.38pm Can I just say what a great job The ex-expat is doing with the list numbers. Wellington Central final is for Robertson, phew!

10.40pm The ex-expat tells me that Stephen Franks is definitely not in on the National list. Even in the midst of the deep gloom there is some glimmer of light. Occasionally.

10.42pm Jeanette Fitzsimmons on the telly now. Peter Dunne was on before and they kept cutting away from him to do more exciting things. Sad individual that I am I found that oddly satisfying.

10.44pm Five Act MPs would mean Roger Douglas, John Boscawen and David Garret join Roy and Hide. Fitzsimmons is hopeful Kennedy Graham will get in on specials, and just put the boot in about people voting for tax cuts.

10.46pm Looks like the Maori Party with take Te Tai Tonga – Katene 600+ votes ahead of Okeroa.

10.47pm TV3 have called it for National, Hooton is saying that Key has “options” (no pun intended I presume!)

10.49pm Gap closing between National and Labour infinitesimally slowly. Glaciers move faster than this. Looks like it’s still going to end up more than 10 points apart, which means National in charge for sure.

10.51pm National plus Act currently 64 out of 122 seats. Apparently no one in my lounge wants to see the outside of John Key’s house until he is actually coming out of it, thanks very much. Cam Calder at no. 58 on the Nat list is the last in on current calculations (by the ex-expat). So their new MPs would include Steven Joyce, Sam Lotu-Iiga (regardless of the Maungakiekie result), Hekia Parata, Melissa Lee, Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, Paul Quinn, Michael Woodhouse (Luddite Journo will not be pleased), Simon Bridges (Tauranga), Amy Adams (Selwyn), Aaron Gilmore and Calder.

10.56pm Bennett (N) and Lotu-Iiga (N) are both over 1000 ahead now in Waitakere and Maungakiekie respectively, with over 90% counted in the first, 86% counted in the second.

10.58pm TVOne says Clark has made the phone call to Key and conceded.

10.59pm Well that’s pretty stinky. Basically Greens have done well under expectations, Act significantly over. Key would need 4 (sorry I originally put 3 by accident) more votes to get things passed each time without necessarily going to Act. Maori could provide those. But I don’t think their people would vote for formal coalition with National. Key might decide to go alone as a minority and build coalitions as he needs them, knowing Act will cover him with any right wing moves, and Peter Dunne will vote for anything centrist and he can probably swing some Maori votes for that too. It’s a huge challenge though for someone with so little Parliamentary experience, to build coalitions case by case like that. Hmmm.

11.04pm Might be wrong on this, but it looks like the 3 hard Christian parties got a combined total of 1.22 %. Off the top of my head that could be a new low for those kinds of parties?

11.07pm Gosh it would be interesting if Act ended up outiside Government, in the same way that Labour kept the Greens out and turned to the centre parties for the formal support. Rumour has it that some of the Pacific Party candidates took out personal loans to fund their campaigns and things will be very tough for them. Not sure how true that is, but if Field goes down to the Big House he may have burnt an awful lot of people on the way.

11.10pm And so discussion turns to the future of Helen Clark, most latterly our Prime Minister. Will she see out the term, and if she does will she do that as Leader? If she resigns her seat there would have to be a by-election, which could be a good mid-term pick-up for Labour, or an opportunity for an outstanding candidate from the Greens, or even National. IMHO the ranking of Goff at third on the party list indicated Clark has accepted he will be the next leader, although it may be a short term measure. Clark is now leaving her place to go to the Labour HQ.

11.17pm Now I know why I am doing this, not one of the normal Standardistas, because they probably didn’t want to expend all this effort for people to just be nasty in the comments… Let’s play nice hey?

11.18pm I’m actually not feeling very depressed. I think it has a lot to do with having friends around me that I made when National was last in power, and we were fighting their education reforms, so I know that the wheel does turn. I’m also really excited about Carmel Sepuloni being an MP. And I feel that there is a real chance here for renewal within Labour, and thus within the broader left. A chance to rebuild relationships which have thawed since the 1980s? I hope so.

11.21pm Clark arrives at Labour HQ. Lots of claps and cheers.

11.22pm Clark’s family are on stage – Arl points out they are allowed to call her Auntie Helen. The ex-expat points out Labour haven’t got that much less than what they won with in 1999 (I refrain from pointing out the Alliance is the difference there). Clark gives her now familiar warm Pacific greetings.

11.24pm “Tonight has not been our night”. I hope for Clark’s sake that she doesn’t cry, because sadly there are many people out there who will get too much joy out of it. “I do believe we are as Kiwis v fortunate to live in a democracy… the choice today has not been us but I accept the choice that has been made…”

11.26pm Clark reflects on her achievements as Labour leader, and what the party has done under her leadership. “… The NZ LP at 92 years old isn’t going to go away… yes with 43 or 44 seats in Parliament we’re a little smaller than our current 49.”

11.29pm New Labour MPs will be Rajan Prasad, Jacinda Ardern, Raymond Huo, Phil Twyford, Kelvin Davis, Sepuloni, Stuart Nash on the list, plus Curran, Robertson, Hipkins, Lees-Galloway, Burns in seats. I may have forgotten someone, sorry.

My job as leader of the Labour Party is complete, I will be standing down, yes, and I will be expecting Labour colleagues to elect a new leader before Xmas, and I will give that new leader whoever it is… total support…” Cries of no!

I am surprised she did it now, I thought she would stand down, possibly not stand for the caucus re-election in the next week or two, but clearly she had decided this some time ago.

11.36pm Starting to think about what this means, particularly in terms of the relationship in future between the Maori Party and Labour. Turia said earlier in the night that she’ll be gone by 2011, and clearly Clark will be too, and my impression was that the rest of the Maori Party are not as opposed to Labour as Turia. So new opportunities may arise in terms of that relationship.

11.39pm In addition to a lot of Labour MPs (listed above) there are quite a few others who were standing for re-election and are out – all the NZFirst MPs (Peters, Brown, Mark, Woolerton, Stewart, Paraone), Gordon Copeland, Phillip Field of course, and Judy Turner from United Future.

11.44pm Our new Prime Minister, John Key, is walking in to Nat HQ at Sky City.

11.45pm Duncan Garner is trying to interview Key as he walks to the podium, but Key is resisting staunchly, just give it up Dunc!

11.46pm Someone is warming up the National crowd, surely that is unnecessary?!

11.47pm Key is in the room. Anth is quite keen to keep flicking channels until we find one that has a different reality!

11.49pm Key hugging people on stage, family and I think key party personnel. He approaches the podium then walks away again to talk to Steven Joyce? Bit strange. Needed someone to move the balloons! Naturally looks ecstatic. “I can’t tell you how good it is to be here!”

“… today NZ has spoken. In their hundreds of thousands across the country they have voted for change. And I can tell you there will be a new National-led Govt in NZ.”

11.51pm Repeating lines from National’s campaign, eg more ambitious. Uhoh balloons in the way again! Pesky things. Talking about state house upbringing and his belief that “this is not as good as it gets” for NZ. “Yes we face challenges but we will rise to them because as a country we have tremendous advantages; our capacity to produce food, our landscapes and scenery, and perhaps most of all the incredible kiwi ingenuity.”

11.54pm “… our collective success rests on the success of individuals.” He paused for applause but didn’t get much then. Unluckily for Key he is making one of the biggest speeches of his life in the shadow of the great oratory we saw earlier this week from the US election. “So let me say this, whether you voted for National or not, tonight, tonight, you have my pledge. I will lead a Govt that serves the interests of all NZers. And it will be a Govt that values individual achievement. And it will be a Govt that supports those that cannot support themselves. And it will be a Govt we can all be part of. Tonight I want to thank Helen Clark… she was most gracious with her comments, so it’s fair to say that Helen and I have different views about what policies are best for NZ but we share a love of this country…” He’s basically trying to be a bit like John McCain, imho.

11.57pm Spoke to Hide and Dunne earlier this evening, rang them to offer his congratulations, and while the details of any formal agreement are yet to be resolved Key can confirm he has the numbers.

11.58pm Has also spoken to Tariana Turia and indicated they will talk next week, and that he wants to work with them too. He’s going to need them to moderate the extreme perception that Act brings. Starts in to the thank yous so TV3 cuts away to discuss the coalition issues.

It’s after midnight now, the conclusion is clear, so I think I’m going to wind up my blogging there.

Feel free to come over to The Hand Mirror sometime, I’m sure we’ll be analysing this result for some time to come all over the blogosphere! Thanks for reading, and thanks to the Standardistas for the opportunity. It was a bad result for the Left, no doubt about it, but we have a good platform from which to rebuild, significant renewal within Labour, and another election in only 3 years’ time!

193 comments on “Election Night Live Blogging: The Live Post”

  1. I’ve heard there’s been a huge turn-out. The advance voting traditional favours NZ First and the Nat’s (lots of old folk) so don’t be too surprised if it all looks a bit blue out of the traps…

  2. bill brown 2

    yeah the switch didn’t happen ’till after 10pm last time – big polling booths in SA take a long time to count.

  3. Carol 3

    I have been a little irritated at the reports in most of the MSM which are all saying it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Nats will form a government, albeit with some having a little reservations at a possible draw between left & right blocks.

    Even Al Jazeera Newshour followed this line. Though they also mentioned the issue of loads of Kiwis leaVing NZ, but said it was pretty much like any small country next to a bigger one, giving the eg of Ireland losing people to England. They also showed the clip of Clark tripping over and getting up quickly, while a voice over said, “But Clark has stumbled before, and got herself up again.”

  4. Carol 4

    Media7 Linda Clark & another on panel blaming EFA on uninspiring campaign, because she thinks candidates have been afraid to say much. Also blames media for poor coverage. eg poor or no coverage of potential cabinet minister.

  5. lprent 5

    Moved my post down so this one is at the top

  6. Carol 6

    Coddington says she made lots of boo boos. haree – Alliance were too disciplined for that.

    Linda Clark – problem of having overheard Shipley said Hawkesby was paid a million dollars +

    Guys around dinner table: One guy surprised at how shallow past Nat government was – little phiosophy of subsatnce. Guy ex-PR for Labour, about how they kept some Labour MP’s from press interviews as they didn’t handle them well.

    Media7: Mike Munro talked about corngate & TV3. Harre was surprised by critical response of media towards Campbell.

  7. lenore 7

    keeping positive (-:

    Am in Peter Dunne territory seemingly always in front of a couple of suits talking about voting for the nats when catching the bus to work. Live in an IT suburb so probably not going to positive around my way but would love to hear positive news elsewhere.

    Voted Labour – chavel (so did partner and eldest daughter)

  8. Carol 8

    Meida7: Neutron Bomb:

    Clark – likes Mike Williams, but he’s indiscrete. No problem if Labour had something on Key. But don’t send party president & don’t do it in collaboration with nation’s biggest newspaper. Thinks Herald thought they genuinely had a story. Labour shouldn’t have put so much trust in Williams.

    Coddingon – media caved in too easily on 2 leaders doing TV debate.

    I voted for labour candidate & Greens

  9. Monty 9

    Not looking good is it lefties – Helen better start clearing out her office first thing tomorrow –

    I hope I don’t have to eat my words later

  10. Peters seems sure to lose Tauranga again

    Arseneau has just remarked that the gap between National and Labour is much wider than at the same point in 2005

  11. Carol,

    The NZH is a National news paper. Not at all interested in real news with regards to John Key. All the more sad for a guy like Williams still believing their Journalists are actually for real and keen to get to the bottom of stuff with regards to John Key.

  12. Carol 12

    Yes, I thought that too Ev.

    Linda Clark just said National does not have a mandate from this election – they’ll need to develop that while in government, for 2011. Basically if they win, it’s a vote against Clark.

  13. Pascal's bookie 13

    Campbell just cut live to his reporter in Horomia’s electorate, a Richard something or other.

    Richard is well stoned, started babbling about how they’d been smoking fish all day, held up a flounder for the camera. Campbell can’t stop giggling. Classic.

    Seemed to be heavy turnout in Rongotai.

  14. lprent 14

    Interesting, The Nat’s are already below 49%. Thats bad for them (and good for me). That means that that the Nats dreams of getting over 50% are just that – dreams

  15. Pascal’s bookie: yes, that’s just what we were thinking in this house too.

  16. lurgee 16

    To be honest I find all the media projections of how many seats and what coalition arrangements at this stage really pointless. Sorry if that burst anyone’s bubble!

    Bit like live blogging, you mean?

    Teasing, my little Labour party apparatchik friends.

    lprent – based on what happened last time, the Nat vote should fall by about 5% as the night progresses, and Labour will gain 5%. Which will still leave them behind, but possibly in with a chance of forming a coalition, especially if Winston manages to scrape over 5%.

  17. NATIONAL WINS!

    I’m calling it early.

    The guy TVNZ just interviewed, got it right. Labour’s ads were petty, all this talk about “TRUST” has come back and bit them in the butt.

    National talked about, their policies, and Labour played the election like Karl Rove.

  18. lprent 18

    Ummm from experience there aren’t that many actual labour members here, let alone apparatchik’s. Hell more than half of the writers say they will be voting green.

    It looks like the coalition blocks are going to be tight. I can’t pick it. But there is no landslide…

  19. Live updates here guys

    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

    NZ First has dropped from 4.7% early on to 4.39% now with almost 20% of the vote counted. Will the PM npw be regretting her unconditional support?

  20. lprent 20

    Brett: forever the optimist. National is not going to win. They may be able to form a coalition, but currently I can’t pick who is likely to be able to form a coalition. I think that Nationals habit of “does not play well with others” will cause them to fail to form one. I’m usually correct.

  21. lprent – the Elections website currently gives National 63 seats in what they project to be a 122 seat Parliament – an outright majority WITHOUT Act, UP or even the Maori Party. Sure, it will tighten a little (4% was the general perception), but it looks bad for the left. And the Greens are only pulling 6.34% at the moment.

  22. lurgee 22

    The Bill & Ben party are ahead of the Family Party, Pacific Party, the Alliance, Social Credit, Libertarianz, Workers’ PArty, Republicans, RAM …

  23. Its done, John Key is the new Prime Minister.

    National is the new Government.

    Heck they might not even need act or United, they could govern alone.

  24. lprent 24

    Brett: You’re wrong (seen it all before), but why not wait and find out….

  25. lurgee 25

    CLUNK – Nats down to 47% of counted vote. The slide is starting.

    They’ll be biggest, but hard to say if the margin will be big enough.

  26. Carol,

    they’ll need to develop that while in government, for 2011. Trust you mean? LOL.
    Not gonna happen.

    I don’t want to sound flippant but I really don’t believe JK is going to be able to do what he wants just so long as all of us aggressively (but not violently) keep pushing for him and National to stick to the laws and fight them on every shortcut they want to take.

  27. lprent 27

    i2: It is interesting, it is going to be really close…….
    as lurgee says we’re about to get the larger booths, and the Nats are more likely to slide to 44-46, Labour to 38-40. I think that the greens will probably settle at 7-8%

    It is going to be TIGHT

  28. lurgee 28

    Labour up to 32% – first positive move for them. National going down, Labour going up. How big will the gap be? And where will WInston be?

  29. Carol 29

    Ev: I don’t know what she meant exactly by a mandate. It could be trust, or just a coherent set of policies – like so that they look like they stand for something other than “not Labour”.

    Tito Philip Field looks like he’s not going to make it. And Peter Dunne is leading, but not by much.

  30. Yeah I was aware of the irony of my comment lurgee 🙂 Also I’m currently without party, although I’ve been in the Alliance in the past.

  31. Brett Dale

    What planet are you from?

  32. travellerev:

    I was just about to ask you guys the same question.

    National has won, Trisha Yearwood is starting to sing, (No offense to the great Trisha)

  33. cytochem 33

    Does anyone know why “Less than 6 votes taken in Polling Places” is specially mentioned?

  34. lurgee 34

    CLUNK! Nats down to 46%.

    Not closing up quickly enough for Labour, however.

  35. When is Aunty Helen’s concession speech?

    This one was about TRUST, and the people have TRUSTED National.

    I hope she is gracious in defeat, like John McCain was.

    Share of seats

    National 60
    Labour 42

  36. Peters is gone – TVNZ just ran the prediction – he’s down to 4.27% now, and slips further every time I refresh the table. And with Peters gone, it just got a whole lot harder for the centre-left. I think the Greens would be disappointed with their current vote too.

  37. milo 37

    National + Act are still above 50% on the raw vote (including all the minnows).

  38. Well there were some people who predicting that the greens would get 11%, what were they thinking???

  39. George Darroch 39

    I hope to hell that we get a left Government. That said, with the campaign they ran, Labour deserve to be in opposition.

    Friends in NZ say it looked arrogant and desperate, and did little to tell us about what good things Labour has planned. In short, it inspired no-one, and failed to get the debate on the issues. What a waste of a golden opportunity. A few more minutes and we’ll find out, I suppose.

  40. weka 40

    Can someone clarify this for me:

    How important are the electorates for Labour? eg if they get a low party vote then does it matter if they win Ak Central or West Coast?

    Could the large Green vote in those electorates cost Labour the seats, and thus the election? Or will it not matter because the party vote is relatively low?

    Can’t figure the overhang in either.

  41. lurgee 41

    Labour up to 33%. National + ACT paerhaps less than 50% of total vote. Starting to get confusing and messy.

    Bit unjust, perhaps, that NZ Fisrst is polling more than ACT but is completely gone, where as ACT might have a decisive influence. Oh well, that’s the system.

  42. George Darroch 42

    Nah, fuck it, I’m calling this election against Labour, and blaming them for the landslide against them.

    I’m also going to say that the Greens still undersell the fact that a vote for them is a safe vote on health, education and the economy – the big three security issues that underly about 85-90% of voters. As a result, they’re forever doomed to 5-8%.

  43. weka 43

    George, I haven’t watched much TV in the last month, but every thing I did see from the Labour party was bashing National.

  44. George Darroch 44

    “if they get a low party vote then does it matter if they win Ak Central or West Coast?”

    It doesn’t matter a whit. Under MMP only the party vote determines the number of MPs a party has.

    Still, it will be good to see a few incumbents on either side out.

  45. milo 45

    What is quite odd is the way ACT keep increasing their vote percentage as the night wears on. Not what I would have expected at all.

  46. lurgee 46

    I thought the Greens would get about 8% – a bit optimistic. 6% probably won’t do them any good.

    Just think, Helen, if you hadn’t signed that free trade deal with the PRC, I’d have voted Labour or Green. As it was, I spoiled my ballot.

  47. It seems Phil Goff is blaming Peters. Perhaps he should look at his own parties policies.

  48. Joanna 48

    Lurgee – I was just about to post the same though re: NZ 1st and Act – I’m quite torn – I don’t like Winston and I am glad he will be gone but it doesn’t seem ver democratic that 4% of the population will lose their votes. Why do we have the 5% threshhol (i’m guessing there is a good reason I haven’t figured out)

  49. lprent 49

    Brett, if you don’t have anything interesting to say, then don’t say it. Otherwise it starts feeling like trolling.

    lurgee: so you’re responsible – anyone that doesn’t vote or spoils their vote is responsible for the results. They determine the election.

  50. Francois 50

    We should’ve booted the bastard Peters when we had the chance. We’re losing the immigrant vote because of him….

  51. George Darroch 51

    “every thing I did see from the Labour party was bashing National.”

    Which was their problem. It was a scare campaign rather than presenting a vision. If they’d done an Alliance-Labour 99 style campaign with the Greens, they would have been able to say we’ll do this, this and this. $15 minimum wage. Every house in the country warm and dry. Tax cuts on the first $5000, paid by polluter taxes.

    Instead they spent as long as humanly possible defending the most odious man in NZ politics, and then went entirely negative, until the last couple of weeks when it was obvious that wasn’t working, and finally started to concentrate on the good things they have done and will do. By then it was obvious to everybody except the Labour Party that it was too late.

  52. Iprent your starting to sound like the McCain supporters. Did ya see Goff on TVNZ, he blamed peters not getting five percent on Labour’s defeat.

  53. Razorlight 53

    What a lovely surprise, waking up on a cold grey London morning tuning in to the NZ sites and seeing what is happening in NZ.

    It looks like the homeland is rejecting the left and looking at the strength of ACT really taking a jump to the right.

    The next two hours will be interesting.

  54. Brett Dale

    This one was about TRUST, and the people have TRUSTED National.

    No Brett,

    Trust has nothing to do with it. Suckeriness everything. You are a sucker. Sorry mate you should never trust politicians, period, but to trust JK makes you out out to be really naive.

  55. George Darroch 55

    “It seems Phil Goff is blaming Peters. Perhaps he should look at his own parties policies.”

    Goff attacking Peters is the height of hypocrisy. Which party chose to go into Government with New Zealand First for the last three years?

  56. lurgee 56

    Those (currently) 67,000 party votes for New Zealand First are all wasted. I’m amazed there were so many people stilling to vote for the old sleazebag.

  57. George Darroch 57

    Oh god, he means he wanted three more years of Peters?

    At least the right know who their enemies are.

  58. milo 58

    What is really interesting is that the Greens are currently less than 3 percentage points ahead of ACT.

    I wouldn’t have picked that. Seems like the landscape is changing.

  59. How come the New Zealand left sounds like the American right, and the New Zealand right sounds like the American left?

    More people in New Zealand think Key would make a better Prime Minister than Clark, it doesn’t make us Naive.

  60. Ari 60

    How important are the electorates for Labour? eg if they get a low party vote then does it matter if they win Ak Central or West Coast?

    Labour would need to win more than half of the electorates to get overhang seats on current polling. I honestly don’t see that happening.

    The more pressing place where I’d have liked to see Green electorate votes go to Labour would be Ohariu, to be honest. Chavel would be ahead of Dunne right now if everyone who had voted for Gareth Hughes voted for Chavel instead.

  61. weka 61

    Any chance the Maori Party will still get to decide who forms the govt?

    (given that they do well on the specials. Greens do too).

    Anyone else having trouble getting onto the electionresults site at the moment? I’m getting timed out repeatedly.

  62. Carol 62

    Yes I had that problem, weka, but it came back again.

  63. Labour has made a projection for a National win, is that the same as calling the election?

  64. lurgee 64

    I certainly didn’t want Peters back, I’d happily accept 3 years of Keyism in exchange for the demise of NZ First. As a bonus, can we have a Labour PArty that behaves with a bit of integrity and does proper Labour Party stuff?

  65. lurgee 65

    I reckon there’s about 3% of shift left in the remaining vote – Labour up to 34%, 35% at the outside, and National down to 44%. Which might leave National just short of a Nat-ACT-UF totality, but Labour unable to do anything, even with the Greens and the Maoris.

  66. Carol 66

    Yes I’m glad Peters has gone. It’s the ACT vote & 5 seats that’s a drag. But that’s it for me. I’ve gotta go. Gotta work tomorrow.

    Catch you all tomorrow night.

  67. It’s looking odds-on now that National/Act/UF will have the numbers to govern

    The current projection with 89.7% of booths counted is

    National 59, Act 5, UF 1 = 65 (+ 5 Maori perhaps – Hide supports that)

    versus Labour 43, Green 8, Jim 1 = 52

    I’m guessing Helen will be making a call soon – or will she concede by txt?

  68. United future will support National?

    Peters about to speak.

  69. Adam 69

    Good Bye Helen

  70. lurgee 70

    Bloody Hell, does that mean Phil Goff in charge of Labour? How depressing, Just when they need a proper leader for 2011 when National get serios about wrecking the place …

  71. Ari 71

    The good:

    Looks like Grant Robertson will beat Steven Franks, AND that National won’t have enough seats to get him in off the list. This is what happens when you make homophobic remarks, Steven. 😛

    Winston and NZF are almost certainly gone! Excuse me while I do my happy dance 😀

    The bad:

    National-led government looks increasingly likely. Say hello to regressive tax cuts, goodbye to fair and rigorous laws, and goodbye to consumer and worker protections.

    Act getting to 5 seats. The extremist libertarians are going to have a field day.

    Greens aren’t doing quite as well as we polled- although this is not entirely surprising, as we’ve historically polled quite strongly sometimes.

    Peter Dunne looks set to claim Ohariu. Again >:( Another victory against principles. =/

  72. George Darroch 72

    lurgee, I agree with you exactly.

    I don’t think Goff, Clark, Cullen, or any other Labour minister realises how much a section of the population absolutely detest Peters. As someone said upthread, there’s a lot of immigrant vote just gone like that.

  73. not loooking goof fellas, my pint of stella artois might be chilling for another 3 years yet

  74. Does Helen retire? Who becomes leader and who should?

  75. George Darroch 75

    “Bloody Hell, does that mean Phil Goff in charge of Labour? ”

    The right of Labour fights for their man, the left fights for Cunliffe, as I understand it.

    God this reminds me of late 1990 all over again. And we all know how that turned out.

  76. lurgee 76

    Worst of all I pledged to do a streak if Roger Douglas got into parliament. Fortunately, I didn’t specify it had to be a public streak. Though it is a cold night …

  77. I think the silver lining is Winston gone.

    You’ve been doing a great job with the live blogging, Julie. Thanks for doing it.

  78. Roflcopter 78

    and that’s the ball-game….

  79. Pascal's bookie 79

    So the just had Douglas on tv3 calling for a bit the old shock doctrine. Looks like Key has got some choices to make. ACT wants no part of a centrist government. Key has promised one.

  80. Razorlight 80

    Enjoy your night boys and girls, because the hard work of fixing NZ begins tomorrow

  81. milo 81

    C’mon, ACT are as helpless as the Watermelons. Whaddya they going to do?

    First rule of bluff – make sure the safety catch is off on your gun.

  82. lurgee 82

    The wildcard has been ACT. Everything else turned out pretty much as expected. Dunne might have been persuaded to join a Labour coalition, but ACT’s performance renders all that irrelevant. Unfotunately, Hide’s performance will establish the idea that you have to be a publicity seeking tit to succeed as the leader of a minor party. The bads just keep piling up!

  83. Spectator 83

    This looks like it would have been a good election for either party to lose, because whichever party does win will have to tread carefully around the minefield that the Bush administration in America have left strewn across the economic landscape. One mis-step from whichever party does win could mean economic disaster; and one which they cannot blame on their predecessor.

    If Labour do lose this election, then they can take some solace in that it is nowhere near as catastrophic as National’s loss in 2002 was; and National came close to winning in 2005 (and could well have won outright if not for Brash having been caught out lying about involvement with the Exclusive Brethren in the last week of the campaign). In this scenario, Labour will need to concentrate on the centre of New Zealand politics over the next three years; avoid the ceremonial bloodletting which followed National’s losses in 1999 and 2002; and trust that this three years will serve as an inoculation of the electorate against National/Act, until the electorate forgets, yet again, the lessons of the past.

  84. Monty 84

    The champagne is great – come over and enjoy it -= Losers

  85. lurgee 85

    There’s a possibility that Key will refuse to enter formal coalition with ACT, because of Key’s refusal to contemplate Douglas as finance minister. Which might make for interesting times.

  86. milo 86

    Spectator: I’ve been wondering whether Helen Clark will hang on and try to come back in three years. It’ll be interesting to see … Mind you, at that stage she will have been leader of the Labour party for 18 years, so maybe it’s not feasible.

  87. Monty 87

    Is Clark off to Resign ? –

    Good

  88. Lampie 88

    Nats + Maori, fuck Act haha

  89. Lampie 89

    NZF more votes ACT hmmmm

  90. Rex Widerstrom 90

    Seems Phil Goff, George Darroch, lurgee and I in agreement. You couldn’t get much broader a range of opinion on almost any other issue, but there’s consensus amongst us that clinging to Winston has been a large part of the reason Labour and it’s support parties are facing this result.

    Pity none of the “master strategists” running the Labour Party had the nous to see it – a blinkerdness which extended to most posters at The Standard. I usually try to stay above churlishness, but I really can’t get past uttering those four most ungracious of words: I told you so.

  91. milo 91

    Rex: I think that’s just classic third termitis – you lose perspective and start to believe your own propaganda.

    Captcha: Italo-Abyssinian ended

  92. I think that Labour MP got it right on tvnz, , Labour needs to listen to the people and what we want.

    Labour for too long has been speaking to the people and telling us what is good for us.

    People dont like it.

  93. lurgee 93

    I just poured myself my first alcoholic drink in about four years, to toast Key’s success and fortify myself for the squeals of rightwing joy. Interestingly, the ‘capcha’ anti-spam thingy has requested I type in the words ‘society’ and ‘suffers.’ Could this be an omen?

  94. cytochem 94

    While I am glad that Peters is gone, NZF got 4.2% of the vote. And this just goes to show how unfair the 5% threshold is. Why should all those votes (about 90,000) not count? And how different would things be if those votes did count?

  95. Ari 95

    Seems Phil Goff, George Darroch, lurgee and I in agreement. You couldn’t get much broader a range of opinion on almost any other issue, but there’s consensus amongst us that clinging to Winston has been a large part of the reason Labour and it’s support parties are facing this result.

    Every Party that could’ve supported Labour except NZF gained votes. Whatever damaged Labour, it hit Labour alone, which backs up your theory. I think most of the Left is very glad to see Winston gone- the only people who’ll miss him are likely to sit in the centre of New Zealand politics.

    This was not quite as close as I was calling it, but I was certainly looking for National to make Government given how aggressively they’ve been campaigning. Hopefully Dunne, the Maori Party, and maybe on some issues the Greens will help moderate the Act Party’s influence on National.

  96. paradigm 96

    Dear Standard,

    Three questions:

    1) How long does Helen Clark have before she is forced to leave the prime minister’s office?

    2) Will you have to leave when she does?

    3) Will you be able to continue to opperate your site without it being payed for by the labour government?

    [lprent: Idiot – read the About. I pay for it. BTW: Paid – not payed (not only an idiot, also a bad speller) ]

  97. lurgee 97

    Setting the threshold at about the same level as it takes to win an electorate would be sensible – high enough to keep the dingbats out, but low enough to allow parties that win a reasonable level of support across the country to enter parliament and represent the people that voted for them. 30K or 50K feels about right on current voting patterns.

    Another prophetic capcha – ‘disposing stage.’ Refering to Clark?

  98. SHE STOOD DOWN 🙁

  99. Falafulu Fisi 99

    Labour should blame themselves for bringing in the EFA and the backing of Sue Bradford’s bill. I have lots of relatives in South Auckland who had been Labour supporters since they set foot on this country, until came the Sue Bradford’s bill, and they me told this afternoon, that they all voted for ACT the only party that opposed that bill.

  100. Monty 100

    [lprent: deleted – banned permanently = you are an ungracious arsehole]

  101. weka 101

    Julie, thanks for your work tonight and for providing a talking space 🙂

    captcha: dry swing

  102. Rex Widerstrom 102

    Ari suggests:

    Every Party that could’ve supported Labour except NZF gained votes. Whatever damaged Labour, it hit Labour alone,

    I haven’t had time to do a thorough analysis of the national figures yet but let’s look at one electorate I was following especially closely: Rimutaka.

    Ron Mark (NZF) managed only 1,384 candidate votes and yet NZF got 4,944 party votes.

    Chris Hipkins, the Labour candidate, got 12,623 giving him a slim lead of just 625 over National’s Richard Whiteside, yet Labour’s party vote was 13,365 (724 more than Hipkins’ personal vote). So Hipkins won by the narrowest margins, and will be gnawing his fingernails waiting for the specials to be counted.

    It could be argued that it looks as though 700 Labourites decided to try and push Mark over the line but still gave their party vote to Labour. Hipkins could be sitting on a comfortable win right now if it wasn’t for Labour trying to prop up NZF in that electorate. I wonder how many other electorates will show similar patterns?

  103. Mostly well faught fight, its been a privilege to have the most important part of my growing up under Labour, in just over a year i will be ready to stand on my own two feet, with help from those around me I shall survive. very good campaign on the part of both parties, lets put the dirty politics behind us, and make the most of the next three years.

    Good on Helen Clarke and good on John Key. See you all in 2011. I am sad that the Greens have not done better, but they shall remain, and they shall remain the conscience of parliament.

    Congratulations toJohn Key, and well done Helen Clark in defeat.

    Good bye and Good night.

  104. Concerned of Tawa 104

    [lprent: deleted banned]

  105. Disengaged 105

    Good point Rex. If I was Chris I would also be wondering how many more votes I would have scored had Labour Supporters not been actively supporting RMs campaign in the last few weeks.

  106. lurgee 106

    You’re assuming that is Labour voters tactically supporting NZF (RIP). It might be the other way round – NZF (RIP) voters voting for the party, not the man, reflecting Marks’ lack of popularity – MMP allows them to make that distinction quite clear.

    Clark looks a bit stunned on TV just now.

    Captcha: ‘Said Borwick.’ No idea what that might mean.

  107. milo 107

    Cross posted from Kiwiblog:

    “I think a bit of graciousness is due. History will regard Helen Clark favourably, and rightly so. The last three years have been a disaster, but it’s well known that “all political careers end in failure’.

    “Congratulations on what you achieved, Helen Clark. It was time to go, but I acknowledge what you achieved.

    ” you can hit the negative karma button now.

    ” and join me in another celebratory drink! “

  108. Seti 108

    A new dawn emerges. The light finally shines on the country. Labour in disarray.

    LONG LIVE DEMOCRACY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  109. We are in good hands.

  110. Your Conscience 110

    Today New Zealand showed us that in the face of greed good people are rendered powerless. It showed us that we are all to ready to betray our brethren, forsake our country, and sell our birthright for the scraps from the table of those who have everything, whilst demonising those who have nothing. We tell ourselves that it was time for a change, that eventually everyone will do better but if you look in your heart you will see that is simply not true. If you voted for national admit it before the poorest and most vunerable of our people and feel the weight of your tax cut on your soul. See yourself for what you really are, and face yourself in the mirror if you can.

  111. :) 111

    [lprent deleted – banned]

  112. Hans 112

    I think history will look back favorably on the Labour-led government’s last 9 years in power. They have made some really positive, internationally recognised changes to the way this country works. I’ll give National their due, but it will be on their heads if they do a dirty on us all, personally I’m more fearful today than I was after the 2005 election.

    And it would be nice if our right-wing peers were just a hint more gracious, don’t you think?

  113. Well done julie, this has been the best election thread on any of the blogs.

  114. Rex Widerstrom 114

    Hans: It’d be nice if people in politics were more gracious, fullt stop. After all “we won, you lost, eat that” set a new low in snide ungraciousness in victory, no?

    I’m actually quite impressed not just by Key’s handling of his speech but also the Nats for cheering and clapping his praise of Clark – far better mannered than McCain’s supporters.

    There were too many people in the last Parliament who’d been there too long and the old emnities had buried themselves too deep.

    I’m optimistic that the influx of new faces in both parties may herald a new open-mindedness and willingness to genuinely debate issues and accept that just because the person with an idea is your political opponent, it doesn’t automatically disqualify the idea from consideration.

  115. Daffodil Gal 115

    Long live democracy indeed. But I am still drunk and depressed. I am proud of Helen. She showed true class and accountability tonight, and mad me proud to be wearing red. She is and will always be my role model. No other New Zealand woman has been elected PM 3x. And no other NZ PM in my (admittedly short) years on earth has resigned on election night – let alone as graciously as Helen.

    JK, I hope you are the stand up guy everyone says. I hope I can trust you. I want to believe. Please, please prove us wrong, and don’t royally screw working class NZers the way we lefties expected you to.

    The left is far from silenced, and I hope that in the coming years we can rejuvenate so that in 2011 the nats do not get another term. I hope that in the meantime, the NZ sucks campaign is not a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Thanks Julie and the standardistas, thanks for your stunning coverage throughout the last few months, I have gained a lot from reading your admittedly more informed perspectives.

    RIP NZ first, I felt grudgingly fond watching Winnie’s concessions speech.

    Seti above me, you are a right twat and Labour is not in disarray by any means. We are just pissed off.

    Ugh I am going to bed. Tomorrows hangover will be a bitch.

  116. PaulL 116

    Hans, it would equally be nice if some of our left wing peers were a little more gracious (for example, our conscience above).

    Helen had a good innings, and three terms is a lot. Four terms was always unlikely. John Key will probably be a very good prime minister, he will have a lot of challenges ahead of him. (Of course, according to some here, the first order of business will be to fire up the baby bbqs, but I’m guessing he’ll wait until at least his second term before doing that).

  117. Seti 117

    Your Conscience – couldn’t be more wrong. A rising tax-cut tide will float everyone’s boat. A fiscally stimulating policy such as National’s will save us all. You should be thankfull.

  118. Janet 118

    Helen. What a great speech. What integrity, what a legacy. The most effective and inclusive prime minister ever. And looking great in that scarlet jacket.

    There is a great new Labour caucus and some new Greens. Roll on 2011 or whenever the next election is, possibly earlier. The right will never have this much power again and from tonight the pendulum swings back to the left.

  119. milo 119

    So lprent: why isn’t that arsehole “your conscience” banned too?

    [lprent: hasn’t said anything to get banned for. The ones I deleted were quite bad. Monty just pissed me off again, and when I was quite annoyed with trolls. It isn’t like he says much of interest anyway.
    My Conscience was only about as bad as you get sometimes. I wouldn’t generally consider banning you.]

  120. Your Conscience 120

    sorry about my previous comment, getting pissed off is therapeutic.

  121. Bill 121

    So it’s Gnash-on-all.

    That’s you and me. Our retirement savings; job protections; welfare provisions.

    It’s our public health and education.

    Three years predicated on the achievements of the individual…how come I’ve time-warped to the 90’s but not lost wrinkles?

    Time to organise chappeses and chaps ’cause those streets are going to need to be hit methinks.

  122. Thanks BB and DG, I actually enjoyed doing this, although it was quite stressful at first.

    Janet has pretty much hit how I’m feeling bang on. Although I have been deliberately avoiding thinking about what this change of Govt might mean for my work. Not good things. But I’ll think about that later or I won’t be able to sleep.

    Thanks lprent for your hard work moderating too, intercepting all the “fan” mail 🙂

  123. lprent 123

    Thank you Julie. Mostly people were well behaved. Had to put comments into moderation for a while while I removed the trash. I had to drop off-line for a while when Helen was making her speech. I was a bit upset for a while afterwards.

    Now it is time to start removing Act and National from the treasury benches. It will be an interesting 3 years.

  124. Well done Julie – it’s been an excellent thread. To all the lefties – now is not the time for us righties to gloat, tempting though it may be! You’ll be feeling the same gut-wrenching sensation that we did three years ago. And at the end of the day, it’s just politics eh! The sun will rise tomorrow morning, and a billion people in China won’t give a sh*t about the NZ election result!!

    Goodnight all – need some sleep before the rugby!

  125. r0b 125

    Bugger.

    Still, my leftie friends, be not too downhearted. A battle lost, the war continues. It was ever thus.

    Thank you Helen Clark, Michael Cullen, and the rest of Labour. For 9 fantastic years, and for the final legacy of losing well, competent and disciplined to the end, leaving Labour in great shape for the future.

    And to you righties out there – fairly soon I think you’ll find that being in government isn’t quite as much fun as you were expecting. Try not to balls things up too much over the next 3 years. Enjoy your night.

  126. burt 126

    Cheers rOb

  127. John 127

    I worked with John for a couple of years in the 80’s. He was impeccably honest, intelligent and hard working. The shit that Mike Williams et al threw at him was completely at odds with the true persona.
    Ultimately his true colours won through. We also have a graceful acceptance speech and a clear indication that the Maori party can form part of the next government.
    Blind ideology on both sides of the political spectrum is self defeating.
    I think that the Greens decision to go with Labour has hurt our ability to effect critical policy in the years ahead and shows a significant degree of political naivete.

  128. Rex 128

    Goodbye RMA
    Goodbye Emissions trading scam
    Goodbye secret mini budget
    Goodbye Unions
    Goodbye Electoral Finance act and public funding of parties
    Goodbye Winston
    Goodbye social engineering
    Goodbye the banning of anything deemed bad
    Goodbye “the Standard”
    Goodbye Helen
    Goodbye PC New Zealand BAHAHAHAHAHAA

    its over boys 🙂

    [lprent: Read the About and the Policy. Banned 2 weeks]

  129. Daveski 129

    Agreed IV2 – gloating is not appropriate.

    I think Rex hit the nail on the head re Winston – that was a major mistake as was the trust angle and the attempts to character assassinate Key.

    Regardless of his politics, it would be appropriate for at least some of the left to acknowledge what he appears to have done in moving national more to the Centre and more importantly making it more inclusive.

    The surprise was the relatively poor performance of the Greens. Winston’s failure to get the final 1% cost the left bloc dearly.

    Certainly not a bad election to lose 🙂 Winston gone, Helen gone, and the possibility of Nats working with MP means politics will be turned on its head.

    LP – is there any way people can offer donations to the running of this site? I’d happily do so simply to get that issue ruled out. I’m not trying to buy you off (hell, you lot normally worry about the right selling things off!!) but the opportunity to contribute to the costs would be something I’m sure many of all colours would happily agree to.

    [lprent: It only costs $159 + $20 GST per month in running costs. Plus the efforts of the writers. I’m pretty sure we can cope for the moment. Hell, since you sort of asked (as opposed to the idiot above) – see the invoice. It is the brainwork rather than the finance that makes this site work – I don’t think that the site is going away.]

  130. Rex Widerstrom 130

    Lynn, my hat’s off to you for keeping things running tonight. I don’t know what the load on the server was but I’d hazard a guess it was heavier than usual and you (and it) coped admirably.

    In contrast, clearly neither TVNZ or TV3 anticipated the demand and their feeds collapsed very early on (yes, I know video is an exponentially larger load, but they have an exponentially larger budget). Eventually TVNZ resorted to two feeds, one for “overseas viewers” (which I couldn’t get to work) and one for “viewers in NZ”. I piggybacked on that one and they’d obviously had to throttle back to 256k and a window the size of a postage stamp.

    So well done… your efforts are appreciated.

    [lprent: Actually I did very little. I think I finally have the system configured correctly to stand the loads now. Wouldn’t mind another CPU core, but it is pretty good for a small virtual server. ]

  131. luke 131

    I like John Key a lot more now having seen his daughter. She has asymmetrical hair, and bright pink shoes. I believe that says a lot about our new captain of the barge of white cloud. I trust him now.

  132. max@gmaail.com 132

    So, can National govern alone?

  133. New Zealand falls to fascism.

  134. John, if the greens were all about green beliefs they would receive a lot more votes. Unfortunately they are ideologically positioned to the left of labour and it would be hard for anybody to argue for Bradford and Locke being called green champions..
    Until they reposition themselves as an environmental party they are doomed to remain fringe players.
    IV2 mentioned that now is not the time for the right to gloat. I would challenge that, we are gloating at our blogs and have waited a long time to do so. But to bring it here when some are clearly hurting shows a complete lack of class and is ill mannered in the extreme.
    I suspect many of you are worrying unduly about what key will do. He is the least “tribal” PM we have ever had. His support for some left policies shows a pragmatism and willingness to build consensus form both ends that has been sadly lacking for many years in this country.

  135. Rex 135

    [lprent: you’re banned – see above – moving to auto-moderation]

  136. max@gmaail.com 136

    NZ rises from the ashes of communism.

  137. Quoth the Raven 137

    Well as a lefty its nice to see a right wing conservative like winston go. But does it not make anyone think a little about our democratic system where a party like NZ first can get many more votes than Act or the Maori party and still not be represented at all in parliament.

  138. burt 138

    A whole new ball game starts Monday. Wow.

  139. noskire 139

    Sorry about the election thing. Guess you might be a bit out of sorts now (and probably out of work), so in the interests of bipartisanship and to cheer you up, I thought I’d invite myself over for a BBQ? Where do you hide your trolls?

  140. Illuminated tiger… take a pill, you clearly have not the slightest idea what fascism really is and your new Prime ministers family came here to escape real fascism.
    Might I respectfully suggest you step away from the bottle and take a nap.

  141. Daveski 141

    Good to see luke and Tiger take the result with good grace …

    Helen’s departure will undoubtedly leave a huge gap both for NZ and for Labour.

    I thought Key’s comments were more than appropriate and in fact vital to ensure that there wasn’t too much gloating given that things will be tough moving ahead.

    Surprised that it hasn’t be picked up much here – mind you, have just looked at the clock.

    May actually play into Green’s hands?

  142. Rex Widerstrom 142

    Geezus Illuminated Tiger… one of us is drunk, because you’re usually an informed and reasonably measured commerntator I could have sworn you just resorted to ridiculous hyperbole.

    My partner’s family escaped from Czechoslovakia to avoid oppression under communism. To hear them reminisce makes you feel like you’ve been turned to ice. Which is why I’ve managed to refrain from any comment that includes the words “Labour” or “Clark” and the word “communist”.

    You need to get some perspective. Or drink more water.

    (And max@gmail, I’m going to assume you’re as drunk as I am, considering gmail has only one ‘a’, and overlook your hyperbole 🙂 )

  143. Joanna 143

    Just wanted to say thankyou to all the writers at the standard for the excellent posts and to Julie for fantastic coverage tonight.
    I though Helen was gracious in defeat (i was very sad to see her step down even though I was kind of expecting it!) and John gracious in victory.
    Congratulations to National/Act and supporters.

  144. Kimble 144

    You ask for graciousness? You have no right.

    You and Labour have dragged politics down to the gutter and beyond. The spite that you have introduced to the NZ political scene is going to be there for a very long time, and there is NO ONE else to blame but Labour and you, its obsessive, fanatical supporters.

    The last few years of Labour have been unbearable for someone who remembers what politics used to be like. Labour have lied, cheated, defrauded, stack the deck in their own favour, been unbelievabley arrogant, committed only to self interest, and have achieved nothing in terms of legislation.

    For all that the Standard posters try to say that they are principled, their actions and inactions have proven them to be just as bad as their labour party employers.

    The previous Labour government set NZ back a decade or more.

    New Zealand was sick of their bullshit. They got what they deserved. Good riddance.

    You are right to fear a new National led government. They will show the humility that Labour has lacked for a decade. They will show your lot up as the pathetic, self centered, adolescent, wastes of seats in parliament they were. They will show you how it is possible to lead NZ without lying, cheating, and stealing. By working with the Maori party they will show you that it is possible to deal with other political parties without the sole concern being to stay in power.

    Every single strategy Labour had in this election campaign was negative, and you were all part of that. Negativity is all that you have now. And it is all that you will bring to the party in the years to come.

    You ask for graciousness? You probably will get it. You will get it from good people that you have for years accused of being greedy, uncaring, and unintelligent. You will get it from people you and Labour have treated with CONTEMPT for a decade. You will get it even though you dont deserve it. You will get it even though you and your party were possibly the most ungracious, dare i say, CANCEROUS party in the history of NZ politics.

    But you wont get it from me.

    We won, you lost, get over it.

    [lprent: Most of the ‘spite’ that I’ve seen comes from wingnuts like yourself. Hell just look in the sewer that is a large part of the comment streams at whale, heine, or kiwiblog. I note that you make a considerable contribution to it. It isn’t likely that we will descend to your level. But yes, the left lost the election. However just barely. The right did not get a particularly glowing mandate – why – because many of us remember the previous National lead government]

  145. Felix 145

    Well done Nats and ACT, very impressive win.

    I hope John Key is true to his word and leads the country well, I’ll be delighted if he surprises me and does us all proud.

    Pass the popcorn please.

  146. infused 146

    Long live National. Thank god Labour are out. Really, thank god. Was a good night to drink too. Also, this was the worst I;ve seen for Labour. Your ads were bloody stupid. It was all anti Key/National. Good way to turn off voters. Very bad politics. You made voters end up voting National. You deserved to lose.

  147. Fuck this is gonna be a fun three years – you righties better hope your crew moves quick…

  148. Quoth the Raven 148

    C’est la vie. I think, like me tommorow morning, one day the country will wake up with a headache from tonight.

  149. Kimble 149

    What did you lot achieve in your years in charge? Huh?

  150. max@gmaail.com 150

    well done national, campaigned on policies and with integrity, came up trumps on the day.

  151. Kimble – more than your lot achieved last time. Or will achieve this time. You’re Labour+ remember…

    What do you think will really change? And if it really does how long do you think your crew will last…?

    max – campaigned on spin and kept the policy hidden… Small target, etc. Good luck with that…

  152. Sorry guys — yes alcohol is a factor.

    Helen tied it up good in the end. Short and sweet. Best PM we’ve ever had in living memory.

  153. max@gmaail.com 153

    hulun was good, for two terms.

  154. Rex 154

    [lprent: banned means banned. One more message and you’ll be added to the anti-spambot’s feed]

  155. max@gmaail.com 155

    probably best for nz based posters to hang up the keyboard. i see some late nite judgement calls being made by all.

  156. Dear lprent, I hope you don’t need to stay up all night to deal with the moderation? Thanks for all your hard work keeping this all going, have a great break.

  157. Illuminatedtiger.. Well done, admitting you have a problem is the first step 🙂 This is wrapping up nicely for the start of the Gooners versus the Scum on skysport shortly. Not much beer left in the fridge now, might need to change tipples.
    Have to mow the acreage in the morning.. Lordy the headache is gonna be a biggee.
    Oh, and kimble.. your big long comment just made the front page at my blog..

  158. Felix 158

    max – yup, if you drink and type you’re a bloody idiot (forever).

  159. I wonder what will happen to Kiwiblog now…

    [lprent: Now that is an interesting question. It has been founded and basically runs on attacking the government as an arm of the Nat’s. What happens when it has nothing to attack. Ummm…. not to mention a lot of those other blogs with no reason for existance apart from attack.]

  160. Felix 160

    Now that they’re all here?

  161. max@gmaail.com 161

    ha ha ha. do you think david and lynn will get married and merge their blogs?!

    LOL.

    [lprent: Unlikely. For a number of reasons I suspect that my partner would do nasty things to me if she even thought I was contemplating the idea. I think that misogyny is the politest word she has ever used about the site.]

  162. Kimble 162

    “Most of the ‘spite’ that I’ve seen comes from wingnuts like yourself. Hell just look in the sewer that is a large part of the comment streams at whale, heine, or kiwiblog. I note that you make a considerable contribution to it. It isn’t likely that we will descend to your level. But yes, the left lost the election. However just barely. The right did not get a particularly glowing mandate – why – because many of us remember the previous National lead government”

    Blah blah blah, some old BS, you really have nothing left. So there are no left wing wing nuts huh?

    Wont descend to OUR level? LOL!

    Who was it that introduced the term “cancerous” to the NZ political lexicon? Where exactly did the term “We won, you lost, get over it” come from?

    WHO TOLD WHO TO TAKE THEIR PILLS??!??!

    You. Have. Nothing.

    Kiwiblog is a great place for political discussion, or at least it was. That was before lefty trolls came along and deliberately derailed every thread, stirring up nut jobs like redbaiter. Then those trolls found a home. Somewhere they could nestle close to the warm breast of Labour. Or at least a bunch of unionist tits.

    The Standard is a worthless place for political discussion. I have been here only a few times and each time I struggle to drag a decent argument out of its inhabitants. I ask for examples, and all I get is insults. I make a reasoned argument for lower taxes and in return I get told that I am greedy and hate poor people.

    I recall one thread in which Tane posted some charts to show that everything improved after Labour took power. I pointed out some obvious fallacies in his argument and asked for some specific policies which people here thought would have affected the metric in the way displayed.

    Not one example. Not one counter argument. BUT I did get about a dozen posts telling me that I was greedy and hated poor people.

    I ask here for examples of Labour “achievements”. Hell, I dont think they achieved a damned thing, but I am stilling open to debate that fact. What do I get?

    The Standard promotes the sort of dog-whistle politics that its acolytes take much pleasure in projecting on to other centrist sites.

    [lprent: What you describe can be summarized as “people don’t want to play with me”. So perhaps you should look at how you approach ‘discussion’. There are a lot of right leaners on this site. They don’t have a major hassle getting people to engage with them. That tends to indicate that the fault may lie with what you do. Now there is a thought…]

  163. Felix 163

    max- better do it quick before they repeal the civil unions law eh?

    Kimble – take your pills.

  164. Lew 164

    Sod: I think they’re drowning in … err, fluids. Of a certain sort. And not entirely without justification.

    L

  165. lurgee 165

    If Key is REALLY SMART he won’t stop at reaching out to the Maori Party, but he’ll offer the Greens some role in his government. Get a moderate greenie on board as Junior Vice-Spokesperson on Windmills and he’s ensured his green credentials, put some stress on the Green Party’s natural fault line and made himself bigger and inclusive.

  166. Well, we have a tough 3 years ahead, it’s time we all cut back our spending, insure what we can and hope for the best.

    Lynn, personally I consider it would be acceptable for the general readership to contribute to the costs of running The Standard outside of election year. If so, I am very happy to contribute what I can, if not I entirely respect that.

    Once again, thank you all for a good campaign, and lets make the most of what we’ve got.

    G’night all!

    (PS, A massive thank you too all those who fraught hard in Wellington Central, exceptionaly happy to see Grant Robinson elected, the bigot may get in on list still, but thank you all for your hard work in standing up for what is right)

  167. Ari 167

    If Key is REALLY SMART he won’t stop at reaching out to the Maori Party, but he’ll offer the Greens some role in his government. Get a moderate greenie on board as Junior Vice-Spokesperson on Windmills and he’s ensured his green credentials, put some stress on the Green Party’s natural fault line and made himself bigger and inclusive.

    The Greens have ruled out any explicit or implicit support of a National government this term. We will be voting against them on confidence and supply, but like any government, we will work with them issue-by-issue. Thus National will either need to find its own Minister for the Environment (a scary thought) or give the ministry to Act or United Future. (an even scarier one)

  168. Nedyah Hsan 168

    Well well. Im upset. Im even more upset that we no longer will get to see who lined Nationals pockets when they repeal the EFA (the whole point of it)
    Whats more upsetting is that 2008 is the “Election of Lies”

    Bye bye ACC
    Bye bye Kiwisaver
    Bye bye ERA
    Bye bye EFA
    Bye bye cheap doctors visits
    Bye bye cheap hospital visits
    Bye bye public education
    Bye bye free roads
    Bye bye Kiwirail
    Bye bye John Key (in 18 months)

    Aside from that, what a night. No more Auntie Helen. Hmm, Uncle Phil? No thanks. I’d rather have Uncle Dave or even Auntie Maryan

  169. Ag 169

    Frankly, it’s a good election to lose. The current economic climate is extremely toxic and the electorate will hold the government responsible whatever the facts are.

    At least NZF is gone, probably for good, and if the National Party try extreme neoliberalism again (as they probably will revert to that, since they have no other ideas), they will be toast in three years. That political program was killed permanently by MMP.

    People should take heart from the fact that in a year where everything basically went right for them (imploding economy, three term incumbent government, etc.) the political right could manage a victory of only a couple of seats, and only then because of the implosion of NZF. Pretty useless if you ask me.

  170. Lew 170

    Lynn: I move that Illuminated[sic]Tiger and others complaining of fascism be banned for a period of time which allows them to get some perspective.

    Democracy indeed. All that’s legal is fair in love, war, politics and sports, as I’m sure all you who’ve supported Richie McCaw these past years will agree. National won this election quite clearly. Going by the numbers on http://electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html, National, ACT and United Future garnered 50.06% of the party vote in this election, and that grants them a mandate t govern, even if you ignore the fact that they won the confidence of the house outright.

    John Key’s gesture to the māori party in his victory speech is a hedge. He doesn’t need them, and if the specials don’t change the makeup of government (which they won’t), I expect to see them cut out of negotiations on the grounds of `irreconcilable differences’ of some sort.

    This result, National/ACT/UF governing alone,was my worst-case scenario – and yet, John Key’s victory speech gives me some hope – though he doesn’t need to, he says, as everyone says, that he’ll govern for `all New Zealanders’; explicitly that they’ll support those who can’t support themselves, and so on. Key campaigned on a moderate, progressive, centrist platform which was as recently as yesterday derided as `Labour lite’, and it may just be that he governs on that same platform.

    We will see.

    I’ll see you all tomorrow, in that brighter [sic] future. I can tell you what I’ll be doing: I’m going fishing. Fishing, as I was told when I was a wee nipper, is first and foremost time for people to sit by the water and think, and that is what I intend to do. Fish will be a bonus.

    L

    [lprent: added both words to the auto-moderation. I’m surprised that they haven’t made it there already. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone actually use them appropiately. I’m going to be trying to get rid of this cold. I’ll also have fun reading the sunday papers. I’d imagine that they are having to rewrite rather a lot tonight.]

  171. lprent 171

    The site will continue to run. We’ll have a look at what we do for the site in the future. As the ‘sod said, the next few years is going to be quite a lot of fun for a political blog site.

    A lot of how it stays up depends on the traffic equation. $160+gst per month isn’t that heavy for me to pay. The issue comes if the traffic continues to climb at the rate it has for the last 6 months and we have to step up the hardware. But I’m expecting the rate of growth to slow post-election.

    It has been a lot of fun helping to run the site leading up to the election. I think it is going to be even more fun poking the borax at this interesting coalition we will have to suffer for 3 years (or less).

  172. Ari 172

    Blah blah blah, some old BS, you really have nothing left. So there are no left wing wing nuts huh?

    To quote the esteemed John Stuart Mill:

    “I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it.”

    So, on a more serious note? Yes, there are left-wing nutcases. The difference is that we don’t elect them to Parliament when they put on a yellow jacket and appoint themselves as head inquisitor and leader of the parliamentary dance squad.

    AG- I’ve run the numbers, and even if NZF returned, pre-special votes, National could still govern without the Maori Party.

  173. gingercrush 173

    Been going through each electorate and writing them down for personal interest.

    Most electorates were getting between 28,000 and 32, 000. In South Auckland turnout is less than 25, 000. Very significant I think. I heard a lot about Labour’s organisation down there but clearly they’ve lost a lot of that because turnout in South Auckland is LOW.

  174. Con 174

    John Key certainly nailed it when he declared:

    This is not as good as it gets

    On the bright side, 3 years is not such a long time – how much of a bonfire can they make in that time?

  175. max@gmaail.com 175

    What I’m looking forward to is the wingnutcase faction that takes the labour leadership, that will be hilarious.

    [lprent: I have to agree with Z. You are starting to activate my anti-troll instincts. Perhaps you’d care to lift your standards before they get fully activated?]

  176. zANavAShi 176

    Hi hi Ari, I see I’m not the only green geek here who can’t sleep. Looking forward to seeing a few more Truckin’ good geek posts over at your place once the despair of this night has subsided.

    Weirdly enough, the most angry feeling on the top of my internal agitation list at the end of this night (as some peeps have already mentioned above) is that Winston got more votes than ACT and Maori and yet they get maybe 10 seats between them.

    I’ll freely admit that I am not sad to see NZF gone for many many reasons, but even so, WTF kind of democracy is our MMP system that this could be allowed to happen?

    PS: Oh FFS Max will you kindly just sod off back to the bridge you crawled from under if you can’t contribute anything more to this thread than the textbook rightwing troll comments.

  177. max@gmaail.com 177

    The same kind of democracy that allowed labour to cheatspend there way back into power last election?

  178. max@gmaail.com 178

    zANavAShi

    Grow up, you sound like an automaton.

    whir click, whhiiir click, “Oh FFS Max will you kindly just sod off back to the bridge you crawled from under”, whiiiir click click,

    [lprent: ban – take another week off to grow up a bit. This isn’t a juvie blog]

  179. lprent 179

    gingercrush: You’re doing a bad comparison. Try looking in time rather than geography.

    You should find the numbers for the 2005 election as well. You’ll find that the south auckland sets were low relative to the other electorates then as well. They are always lower than most of the other electorates. However if you go back to the 2002 election you’ll find that they have been rising fast.

  180. gingercrush 180

    Yes I’m sure they are low. But South Auckland is LABOUR’S goldmine. They need to figure out how to get the people to the booths. The average drop from other electorates is around 5, 000 turnout. That is low and likely lower on other elections too but don’t have time tonight to see. But if I was Labour I would be working out how to get even more people to the booths.

  181. Jared 181

    Bye bye ACC
    -No one said anything about getting rid of ACC, it was more about opening it up to private competition so that for instance, companies need not pay excessive ACC levies to get the same service
    Bye bye Kiwisaver
    -Not being sold, need I say that again or can you not read, but then again, its not like it is any better than the 10 other banks out there, the one reason why it succeeded was because it didn’t have barely any start up costs
    Bye bye ERA
    Bye bye EFA
    -Hamstrung attempt to restrict any opposition to Labour anyway, excellent example of labours desperate attempt to get back into power
    Bye bye cheap doctors visits
    -since when?
    Bye bye cheap hospital visits
    -since when?
    Bye bye public education
    -since when? (Not to mention that the public education system is incredibly underfunded anyway)
    Bye bye free roads
    -Roads don’t build themselves. We have had toll roads for years, other countries have them, why not us? Money doesn’t grow on trees
    Bye bye Kiwirail
    -I really wouldn’t be that sad to see Kiwirail to go, not only is it a drain on the government, but an unprofitable and unviable venture. It was better off in the private sphere

  182. max 182

    LOL.

    Juvie it is.

  183. Nedyah Hsan 183

    Bye bye ACC
    -No one said anything about getting rid of ACC, it was more about opening it up to private competition so that for instance, companies need not pay excessive ACC levies to get the same service
    * once the work account goes, the rest follows. National’s done it before, will do it again.

    Bye bye Kiwisaver
    -Not being sold, need I say that again or can you not read, but then again, its not like it is any better than the 10 other banks out there, the one reason why it succeeded was because it didn?t have barely any start up costs
    * Er… I said Kiwisaver. not Kiwibank. Key said “never selling Kiwibank” on the TV3 Leaders debate.

    Bye bye ERA

    * no comeback? You await with bated breath the ECA?

    Bye bye EFA
    -Hamstrung attempt to restrict any opposition to Labour anyway, excellent example of labours desperate attempt to get back into power
    * Have you even read the EFA? National would have been required to list the donors to their ‘secret trusts’ as well. Why do you think they’re so keen to repeal it… could it perhaps be they don’t want to reveal just how much they’ve been bought?

    Bye bye cheap doctors visits
    -since when?
    * I refer you to Tony Ryalls speech last year “let the market decide”

    Bye bye cheap hospital visits
    -since when?
    * again, Tony Ryalls speech “charge for “non essential public services”

    Bye bye public education
    -since when? (Not to mention that the public education system is incredibly underfunded anyway)
    * yet, National are more than happy to double the amount of state funds given to PRIVATE schools.

    Bye bye free roads
    -Roads don?t build themselves. We have had toll roads for years, other countries have them, why not us? Money doesn?t grow on trees
    * ah, but National won’t stick to the ‘must be one free road’ mantra.

    Bye bye Kiwirail
    -I really wouldn?t be that sad to see Kiwirail to go, not only is it a drain on the government, but an unprofitable and unviable venture. It was better off in the private sphere
    * Fully disagree. Rail in the private sphere was always underfunded, undercapitalised, and could be done so much better. Queensland government bought back rail, and look where that is now .Amongst the most used transport system in Australia, at no expense of roads, buses or other transport methods.

  184. max 184

    Bye Labour.

  185. Ari 185

    Hi hi Ari, I see I’m not the only green geek here who can’t sleep. Looking forward to seeing a few more Truckin’ good geek posts over at your place once the despair of this night has subsided.

    Weirdly enough, the most angry feeling on the top of my internal agitation list at the end of this night (as some peeps have already mentioned above) is that Winston got more votes than ACT and Maori and yet they get maybe 10 seats between them.

    I’ll freely admit that I am not sad to see NZF gone for many many reasons, but even so, WTF kind of democracy is our MMP system that this could be allowed to happen?

    Well, given we’ve got our fifth National government now, I think I can guarantee more Truckin’ posts. Not necessarily geeky ones, though 🙁

    I’m not so much angry as wary. The more moderate face presented by Key- if genuine- could mean that this election has just forced National to take three very difficult years in government while trying to be more like Labour. I’m hoping that will mean that this is a very short Government.

    As to dislike of NZF- I’m with you on both counts. I’m glad Winston is gone, but I’m upset that he’s not taking Act, UF, and possibly the Progressives with him. I’ve never understood why we: a) have a threshold at all, and b) let electorates bypass the threshold. I’ve actually got something drafted for G.Blog that goes into this. For now I’ve just posted the election results over there.

    As for what National will do: I find it pointless to speculate before they’ve even come to a solid agreement with their coalition partners or even appointed a cabinet, let alone announced their first policy. Speculation is best when informed by more data.

  186. Jared 186

    -Rail under the state back in the eighties was an unprofitable venture anyway, which is one of the reasons it was sold off. It still holds little intrinsic value to the country interms of freight options considering its reach is so limited.

    -Once again, if you consider how many students are taken out of the state funding loop you would see that the current system would collapse if they were to be reintroduced. Currently, MOE policy is only possible via school donations, and even then, some schools run into debt.

    -Kiwisaver is being retained, only the employer contribution is being cut (logical step), what we need now is short term relief, and part of that is not increasing costs for employers.

    -Even the Human Rights Commission called the EFA “inherently flawed”, but National (as I remember) has agreed to keep the cap on donations. If anything, id be more concerned about how much Labour and NZ First has been bought than National in this election.

    – And under National’s ACC policy last time it was in power it was a success, cry some more elsewhere. ACC is not the be all and end all of comprehensive insurance.

    -Unfortunately, Med School is hardly cheap. Considering ACC will still cover the majority of hospital work, hospital charges won’t be an issue. But than again, once you sink over $100k and 5 years into a degree, maybe, just maybe you can comment.

    -Couldn’t care less about toll roads. We are moving into the future, not the past. Toll roads increase investment and getting infrastructure online in a shorter time frame.

  187. Ari 187

    -Rail under the state back in the eighties was an unprofitable venture anyway, which is one of the reasons it was sold off. It still holds little intrinsic value to the country interms of freight options considering its reach is so limited.

    You’ll probably be reconsidering this position after oil peaks.

    -Kiwisaver is being retained, only the employer contribution is being cut (logical step), what we need now is short term relief, and part of that is not increasing costs for employers.

    No, what we need now is infrastructure and knowledge investment that generates short-term relief and still grows our economy in the long term. National’s few infrastructure investments are poorly targetted and essentially just throw money at the problem.

    The employees are hurting too. Why should employers have their obligations to employees lessened, instead of trying to better the lot of both? You seem a little short-sighted here.

    -Even the Human Rights Commission called the EFA “inherently flawed’, but National (as I remember) has agreed to keep the cap on donations. If anything, id be more concerned about how much Labour and NZ First has been bought than National in this election.

    National blocked further transparency such as revealing who was hiding behind trust donations above the threshold for anonymity. If we could charge for breaches that happened years ago, and if the laws were actually enforced, I’m sure those of us on the left would be fine with higher spending caps if they were accompanied by greater openness. As it is, only Act and the Greens have declared what looks to be all of their large donations. National, Labour, New Zealand First, United Future, and the Progressives are practically MIA.

    – And under National’s ACC policy last time it was in power it was a success, cry some more elsewhere. ACC is not the be all and end all of comprehensive insurance.

    Then why is it considered one of the best and most efficient worldwide? Tell me a specific, concrete example of what we’d gain from allowing private competition to ACC. And “the private sector is more efficient inherently”-type arguments aren’t concrete.

    -Couldn’t care less about toll roads. We are moving into the future, not the past. Toll roads increase investment and getting infrastructure online in a shorter time frame.

    As long as the tolls aren’t to build even more roads, I am for road tolls.

  188. Paul Robeson 188

    No one said anything about public transport. No one in Labour or National really cares about that.

    bleuh.

    Our political spectrum is missing a divide between a strong left wing party representing the poor that the Alliance was and potentially Sue Bradford has been, and an environmental party, that could potential sit in a more Switzerland aspect on some policies to increase its pull on environmental issues. Its economically rational, with oil prices going up.

    Investing in broadband and roads is most likely not going to cut back significantly on the amount of petrol we consume.

    Anyway.

  189. Ari 189

    A party (especially a centrist one that has to compete more directly with Labour and now National) founded on only a single issue without exploring the consequences of that issue will not last long. See Christian Centrists UF, or anti-corporate NZF.

    I should note that an economically-oriented splinter faction of the Greens split off to form the “Progressive Greens”. They polled at 0.26% in 1996 and have since disbanded.

    The Right has made itself incompatible with broad green ideology- not the other way around.

  190. lprent – we may be polls apart politically and philosophically, but a big ups to you for your attempts to keep debate at The Standard reasonable – even if you do cut ‘Sod far too much slack at times. If I may be so bold as to make a suggestion – Just don’t be so hard on those from the right that you miss the slander and innuendo that your own sympathisers post.

    Anyway, WTF are we going to argue over now that the election is done and dusted?? 😉

    [lprent: I cut everyone too much slack. Occasionally I slice it off. Keeps everyone monitoring their own behavior. I suspect that a big topic of conversation will be the relative incompetence of Key in forming and managing a coalition.]

  191. I wonder when that “snap” point will come when the swing voters discover they have made a terrible mistake? I give it 6 months. I predict they’ll be moving fast on a lot of what they want to do as then they can try to innoculate themselves against the public backlash.

    I may only be in my early 20s but I do remember the 90s under National and the immense struggles my parents had to endure under them. The people who I feel sorry for now are those who are about go through the same and the kids who are going to have to watch it happen – and in many cases end up experiencing it worse than I did.

    Captcha: Is Defeated

    But never destroyed.

  192. lurgee 192

    Labour should blame themselves for bringing in the EFA and the backing of Sue Bradford’s bill. I have lots of relatives in South Auckland who had been Labour supporters since they set foot on this country, until came the Sue Bradford’s bill, and they me told this afternoon, that they all voted for ACT the only party that opposed that bill.

    This doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Here are the 05 and 08 prty votes for ACT in the ManukaU East, Mangere and Manurewa seats:

    SEAT / 05 SHARE / 08 SHARE

    Mangere / 141 / 252
    Manukau East / 629 / 395
    Manurewa / 232 / 575

    05 results can be checked here:http://2005.electionresults.govt.nz/electorateindex.html
    08 results can be checked here:http://2008.electionresults.govt.nz/electorateindex.html

    So virtually no difference in the total votes cast for ACT across the three seats.

    Whatever caused ACTs resurgeance, it wasn’t disillusioned PI child thumpers voting for the Freidmanites.

    [lprent: fixed the italics]

  193. Ayrdale 193

    …just seen this thread, haven’t followed all of it, so apologies if this has already been mentioned. Key needs to state a timetable for his vision and goals. Among those goals must be a review of MMP and dropping the loathsome and disgraceful Electoral Finance Act. Fantastic re Rodney Hide and the implications for the loopy Kyoto agreement. And where will Helen go ? and will hubby go to ?

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