End of year polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, November 9th, 2009 - 35 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

Not much to say but spotted the new Roy Morgan:

The latest NZ Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government is 60.5% (up 1.5%) comprising National Party 55.5% (up 2.5%), Maori Party 3.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (down 1.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted October 19-November 1, 2009.

Support for Opposition parties is 39.5% (down 1.5%); Labour Party 29% (down 1%), Greens 7.5% (unchanged), NZ First 1.5% (down 1%), Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

While the trend line is a concern, there are signs that the government’s shine is wearing off. Let’s see how the summer period is utilised.

Then there’s also the poll in today’s NZ Herald:

The first Marae-DigiPoll survey since the election has shown a spike in Maori support for both the Maori Party and National – and a strong endorsement of the support arrangement between the two parties.

Time will tell whether this is a real and permanent change or just part of the wider (and current) positive poll environment for the government. Does it make it harder for Hone Harawira to walk away?

35 comments on “End of year polls”

  1. sweetd 1

    “…there are signs that the government’s shine is wearing off.”

    What signs are those?

  2. As DPF points out, partly this reflects the failure of the campaign to paint Key as something he has turned out not to be. Yet the Standard persists which I suppose I should applaud!

    Indeed time will tell re the Maori vote.

    While I agree there is risk, the Maori party have more to gain with National unless Labour and the MP can work a deal which would seem highly unlikely as they are in direct competition.

    Not sure where Labour can go – they’re fighting on multiple fronts – Greens, MP and Nats in the middle. And I can’t see Goff leading a credible alternative vision … but I’d say that wouldn’t i?

    • r0b 2.1

      As DPF points out, partly this reflects the failure of the campaign to paint Key as something he has turned out not to be

      No, it reflects the success of the campaign, without which National would be at 90% approval ratings.

      Of course I don’t believe the above, but it’s to show how stupid it is to use poll ratings as an argument in support of any such claim. Claims are easy to make, hard to prove, and DPF is just using them as propaganda (as usual).

      • SHG 2.1.1

        Seriously? That’s your opinion? “We kick ass because the National government is only on 60+% approval while we’re on 20-something”?

        Two words: IRAQI INFORMATION MINISTER.

        • felix 2.1.1.1

          Wow.

          A word count of what? About 100?

          And you only got half the way through.

          Numeracy seems to be an issue as well.

          Just wow.

          • Winston Smith 2.1.1.1.1

            Just wow Felix? Unlike you to be speechless in the face of reasoned argument…

            From the 2005 election, Labour has gone from 37% ahead of National amongst Maori on the general roll, to 9% behind.

            Just wow that loss of franchise – signs that the Labour Party has not only lost its shine but is rusted beyond redemption and ready for the scrap heap of failed political parties

            [Security word for this post is ‘amused’ – how appropriate]

            • felix 2.1.1.1.1.1

              So you didn’t make it right through r0b’s comment either I take it?

              Got any links for me yet?

        • mickysavage 2.1.1.2

          SHG

          Two words: IRAQI INFORMATION MINISTER.

          Um that is three words. Are you like missing a thumb or something?

          • SHG 2.1.1.2.1

            It’s a linguistic device that I employ to identify the children among the audience so I can know how much weight to assign to their opinions and comments. Only children ever point out the disparity between the number of words I say I’m about to use and the number I actually do. Adults, being more proficient at the use of language in a social context, never comment.

            • felix 2.1.1.2.1.1

              “Two words” is not a figure of speech meaning “any number of words”.

              There is no social context in which three words are described as two words except the context of socialising with illiterates and innumerates.

  3. Tigger 3

    New Kids on the Block were popular once also.

  4. So Bored 4

    “The trend line is a concern”?????? I cant quite work out whether National is Labour Lite, or Labour is National Lite. What is very evident is that Labour and Goff dont appear to have a coherent image with the electorate, nobody really knows what they stand for. Which means that there is no alternative context to any move NACT make, no framing of debate with any real differentiation. Which does not surprise as Labour have not acted like a Labour party for years. Labour cant blame NACT for quietly doing their backers will whilst Jonkey portrays to the public a mirage of benign do nothing. Nine years of managerialism, hold it steady, and a smattering of social legislation, whoopy do.

    What sticks in my craw about Labour is that they make life too easy for the likes of DPF and his loyal retenue of low level parrots like Daveski above. Still every dog will have its day.

    • Daveski 4.1

      Gee SB not sure if that’s cordial or not – and I don’t mean the drink either 🙂

      I’m no parrot for DPF – if he says something relevant, I will mention it. Point being of course that he was actually quoting a reporter, but you would know that wouldn’t you?

      The point is valid tho – the left made so much of an issue of Key and trust and it’s spectacularly failed. Interesting that eddie has churned out one of those sickly sweet fluff pieces on Goff for a while.

      I commented recently that National are getting away with a relatively poor performance which says as much about Labour as it does National. I actually agree with your comments above … but give me a little bit more credit than being a parrot for DPF. I’m not a dolphin for Whale either 😉

      • So Bored 4.1.1

        OK, but NZ parrots are really cool, lets face it keas can be very destructive, kakapos close enough to extinction to remind me of people I dont like.

        On Labour and Goff……lesser brown spotted kiwis come to mind, cute, difficult to tell from other Kiwis and very endangered. Out of sight, gone bush, in the dark and incapable of changing their habitat.

        • Daveski 4.1.1.1

          LMAO

          Dolphins for Whale does have a ring about it, don’t you think 🙂

          • lprent 4.1.1.1.1

            Yeah, but pods of dolphins have been known to kill their bigger cousins as well as sharks. Mind you anyone could out think Whale…. The bloated one is viscous, but entirely predictable.

  5. gingercrush 5

    I don’t think much can be read about the support for the National-Maori Party coalition. 67% isn’t actually that impressive of a number. And no doubt had voters been asked would they prefer a National-Maori Party relationship or a Labour-Maori Party relationship. Labour would be the preference and likely overwhelmingly. I do think Labour are in a difficult stage of their relationship with Maori. Goff isn’t Clark and Goff hasn’t sought that relationship with the Maori people as Clark did (or if he has it isn’t being seen).

    National is also polling well generally. But this is just one poll and it is very difficult to see a trend. And whilst I believe Labour are in deep trouble for the 2011 election. I do believe Maori will once again vote Labour, especially as I believe Act will grow their vote more in 2011.

    I don’t see how Labour or Goff can be happy with the polls at all. Especially as next year the polls will come out monthly. The trend is horrible and I do believe National will win easily in 2011. Expect the media to pounce on Labour and Goff’s bad polling in the months ahead. It’s looking like a repeat of 2002 to me. Only if the left aren’t careful National will actually be capable of governing alone.

    • SHG 5.1

      this is just one poll

      Yes, one could even go so far as to describe it as “rogue”.

    • Winston Smith 5.2

      good stuff Ginge:

      “this is just one poll and it is very difficult to see a trend… the trend is horrible…”

      Despite your confusion your conclusion that National will be capable of governing alone is sound enough. Bring it on!

  6. “there are signs that the government’s shine is wearing off”

    Obviously not with the voters. Maybe Labour should change its strategy.

    • So Bored 6.1

      Great moniker EO, well worthy of a brass handled shovel and rain gauge. And I thought I was bored. Hehehe

  7. ak 7

    …Key as something he has turned out not to be. Yet….

    Copacetic on the last word. He is what he is – a futures trader gambling on a brighter future, serving up soothing labour-lite in the interim to wash down the mogadonkey happy pills. Who’d swap a mild hack mid-stream amid storm warnings? – it’s the alternative, stupid.

    Wheel’s still spinning: “coming aggressively out of recession in fourth quarter” went bust – points to lots of unhappy punters next year if our lucky charmer strikes dust.

    It’s PM Idol in the twilight zone with a single survivor: when those sets turn off it’ll be swift.

  8. bobo 8

    National should stall on the foreshore decision till next year and avoid it simmering over the summer period.

    Key will have to make actual decisions next year as the “waiting for the select committee to report back” line will wear thin.

    Capital gains or a land tax, increase on GST ? He cant reduce personal tax without slashing public services so something has to give. This will all make for an interesting year when Key goes from worrying about being popular to actually making decisions that have actual consequences down the track.

    • Jasper 8.1

      Therein lies the rub

      The more often the house goes into urgency, the more select committees are not held. Thus decreasing the chance of the select committee reporting back and actually having to do something.

  9. John Dalley 9

    While the polls might look good at present, it is only the first year for this National Government but the cracks are starting to appear, the press is starting to to hold them to account.
    I seem to remember the suggestion that Labour only needed about a 3% turn to have national is serious trouble. Well the polls may not say it yet but i would suggest that National has pissed enough of the voting public of to be starting to marrow that gap.
    Polls this early in the election cycle are a complete load of bollocks as polls are generally. Most of those who are the swinging voters are not about to admit yet that they made a mistake and should have stuck with Labour or another party who they would have normally voted for.
    I don’t care what the polls say at this stage but i will stick to my previous bet that National will be in serious trouble by the time the next election comes around.

    • SHG 9.1

      I seem to remember the suggestion that Labour only needed about a 3% turn to have national is serious trouble.

      A 3% turn would have Labour’s support out of the twenties.

  10. Zaphod Beeblebrox 10

    Both parties seem to be adopting ‘the wait and see” approach to economic policy at the moment. National however are slowly but surely chipping away at a lot of social and environmental programs at the margins, which is a very smart policy politically.

    Labour’s problem is that they sound wishy washy- they really need to start setting the agenda- they really need to ditch the Blairite neo-Liberal third way management which worked great for Helen but is no longer relevant and take a leaf out of Obama’s book. Propose some strong decisive programs which look to the long term- if they get accused of being socialist so much the better.

  11. Dancr

    If this is wearing off, I hate to see what number they need to be popular.

    Ever thought about working for Faux news?

  12. randal 12

    well you know that if you give people freedom of choice then they invariably copy someone else. so it is easy to identify/imagine/project yourself as having fifty million bucks ($50,000,000) to spread around in a trickle down sort of way but in the end whats his is his and it will stay that way. Key was recruited as the “opener” but the leftover sardines are starting to “HUM”.

  13. Adolf Fiinkensein 13

    God knows why you Labourites continue to worship Clark.

    You babble about her ‘relationship with Maori.’ as though she somehow mattered. When are you going to realise that Clark singlehandedly destroyed Labour’s more than seventy year long relationship with Maori when she buggered off to talk to a sheep? What an act of cowardice that was.

    Now, in just ONE YEAR, Maoridom has started to experience FOR THE FIRST TIME what it really means to be genuinely inside the political tent. How different that has been from seventy years of paternalistic condescension.

    That is why you will never get them back. The horse has bolted and it was your goddess who opened the stable door and gave it a good whack on the arse.

  14. al 14

    I remember that after the 2002 election some commentators suggested National might be finished as a political party. National then nearly won the 2005 election.

    Labour are not going to win the next election. They need new faces and new ideas and it is going to take more than a couple of years to become electable.

    I believe the current support for National is very shallow and exists because there is no alternative government. If I was polled at the moment I wouldn’t be registering support for Labour- I don’t like Goff and I am sick of third way politics.

  15. torydog 15

    So funny……anyone care to guess how many seats the maori party will win next election…1?? 2???

    An election is still 2 years away righties…..so dont count your chickens before they hatch.

    Clarks ratings were in the dumpster when she became leader of labour…….and look how things changed…9 years as PM!

    National cant go on doing nothing forever….even the dumbest voter will get a clue and vote correctly next election.

    • fizzleplug 15.1

      Wake up and realise they made a mistake eh? Must have been something in the water the day the country voted.

      Anyone care to guess how many Maori seats Labour will take off the Maori Party at the next election? My money is on 0. The apology over the Foreshore legislation is a start, but don’t think that Maori will forgive that easily. In time Labour will get the seats back, but not next election.

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