- Date published:
11:31 am, May 17th, 2008 - 27 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: election, election 2008, fairfax media poll, polls
This morning’s Fairfax poll is bad news for Labour, with National easily having the numbers to govern alone. Following the hugely popular rail buyback it’s hard to see what could have caused a swing of this size, so it’ll be interesting to see if the next few polls show a similar trend.
The Greens and NZ First are the only minor parties to clear the 5% threshold.
The problem is that Labour have not been listening. Now no one is listening to them. NZ is a great country with a future as good as anywhere on the planet. Unfortunately Labour do not seem to grasp this point, or even articulate the idea. I believe the railway purchase was not seen as prudent stewardship by the majority of NZer’s, hence the further decline in confidence for the Labour led Govt.
National will be very unlikely to get enough of the vote to govern alone their support will come back under the 50% mark as we get closer to the election what is becoming clear is that the general trend is now almost certainly pointing towards a National led government.
And to the surprise of many who comment at the Standard the sun will still come up in the morning and we’ll still have a predominantly state funded health and education system. In the medium term I believe it will also be good for the Labour party – clean out some of the dross and more new blood and reinvigorate after 9 years in power.
The problem is that Labour have not been listening.
Are you sure coge? How can you tell? Have you ever gone to talk to your MP, or considered the number of appointments they have with members of the public (often people under great stress) on a weekly basis?
Despite it’s rather dramatic title, the following Herald piece is an interesting read:
NZ is a great country with a future as good as anywhere on the planet. Unfortunately Labour do not seem to grasp this point, or even articulate the idea.
Sigh. How many speeches about working towards our bright future should I point you towards coge? Anyway, later, got to go and dig a hole.
(Captcha: popularity kheel — huh?)
Hugely popular rail buy-back?
Hugely popular with who?
yeah…I thought it was more like 60-65% approval (maybe that is hugely popular)
Don’t take offence but the reason many have turned off Labour is exactly the behaviour you’re modelling ‘shoot the messenger’
Just recently the Standard slated Fran O’Sullivan yet she’s written a glowing piece on the Prime Ministers work on FTAs today.
This, I believe, is Labour’s key problem they’ll take the praise when due but anything negative is dismissed, ignored or even worse brushed under the carpet.
My belief is that Labour will be trounced in the coming election for the simple reason that there is no longer any substantial belief by the public that they are the servants of the people and they have become increasingly viewed as avaricious and dismissive of anything which can be viewed as impacting negatively on Labour.
[lprent: you’re not talking about me, right. You’re referring to IrishBill in his post.]
“Hugely popular rail buy-back?
Hugely popular with who?”
On a more serious note I’m really surprised that Clark is so out of touch given that she’s one of our most competent PMs’. At the end of the day you can go to as many meetings as you like but if you pass legislation like the anti-smacking bill which tends to polarise people against you then in my mind you are out of touch.
“Hugely popular buy back of Railways” – say what – the focus group copnducted in suburban Taita has got it so wrong -= and then cullen lied to the country about the price. i expect labour to dip below 25% in a poll before the election
Cullen, the flagrant liar, is bringing down the Labour Party!
His duplicity about the price paid to Toll will come to haunt this government, which should now be preparing to become the opposition.
This one screams rogue poll.
Labour won’t even make it into opposition. The Greens will have more seats by September. This ain’t no rogue poll and you’ve got four more months of these adverse trend lines still to go. Clark and Cullen have actually destroyed the Labour Party.
Adolf – why did you name yourself after Hitler? Do you think it’s funny?
[lprent: ‘sod – it is a name. Thats like asking you why you named yourself after a thief – Robin Hood]
HS: Don’t take offence but the reason many have turned off Labour is exactly the behaviour you’re modelling ‘shoot the messenger’
Ummm – what? Is that what shooting the messenger looks like to you HS? For goodness sake get a grip!
I’ve only shot a messenger once. It looked like this. I ain’t proud of it.
Robinsod, not only are you a tired bore but you have become a cracked record. If you must know, my father was a Jew who hated Germans and when I was born he took one look and named me Adolf. If you believe that, you’ll believe anything. You probably do, if you believe Cullen and Clark. C & C stands for cancerous and corrosive.
My problem with the Fairfax poll is that it says nothing about the numbers of undecided.
The support recorded for all the parties could be something else completely if 30% of those sampled were undecided.
I tend not to give much cred to polls that conceal the undecided proportion. They are – to me – misleading and too openly manipulative in doing so.
Wow, this poll has New Zealand First over 5%?
It’s certainly a very dramatic jump from everything else we’ve been seeing recently…
“Wow, this poll has New Zealand First over 5%?”
Don’t you jump for joy too soon. Peters, the incorruptible political whore, and his cohorts are doomed.
Peters will retire to sunny Auckland after November.
Robin Hood? – I thought it may have been Ro Bin Sod after Osama Bin Laden, then looked at the possibility of Robins Odd – perhaps?
but Im happy to settle on Dylan
The thing that really scares the shit out of me is how many people want to see GST removed on some items, and are willing to put up with the possibility of higher interest rates and inflation, all for a tax cut now…
National has to pull a big number out of the bag if they want to keep all of the people happy.
what like no GST on fruit and vege? That’ll blow the inflation targets out. Interest rates cant go any higher cause labour were too stupid to change the reserve banks mandate when it mattered.
National just have to let Mikhael screw himself and labour.
Phil: I’d agree for slightly different reasons. The relative simplicity of GST makes it easy to administer at both the government and the business side. Therefore it is relatively cheap to run. I’ve seen code to run both the VAT (UK) and GST in aussie, It is really complex compared to the code here. The admin procedures on to to handle exceptions would be a pain to run.
Each exception costs everyone. Prices will rise accordingly.
I agree Lynn, it’s a nightmare-in-the-waiting, similar to the ‘gas tax holiday’ Hillary Clinton was suggesting.
Following the hugely popular rail buyback it’s hard to see what could have caused a swing of this size…
Is it really? I’ve been unable to believe the incompetence displayed the last couple of weeks – first trying to saddle us all with a raft of extra costs so Helen can have something concrete to show for her bluster about the environment, then demonstrating they actually don’t have the bollocks to go through with it. They’ve completely lost what little respect I still had for them. Clearly I’m not alone.
“Following the hugely popular rail buyback it’s hard to see what could have caused a swing of this size ”
Maybe it was getting caught trying to bullshit NZ on the price?
Without a doubt Cullens attitude is one of Labours biggest liabilities