Gap closes in latest Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:22 am, October 1st, 2011 - 84 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags:

Like the recent Fairfax poll, yesterday’s Roy Morgan shows a significant swing from National to Labour:

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for Prime Minister John Key’s National-led Government has fallen to 55.5% (down 6% and back to the level of support in August). Support for Key’s National Party is 51% (down 6%), ACT NZ 1.5% (unchanged), the Maori Party 2.5% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Opposition Parties is at 44.5% (up 6%) – Labour Party 30.5% (up 4.5%), Greens 11.5% (up 4% – the highest for the Greens since before the last election), New Zealand First 1% (down 2.5% – the lowest for more than two years since August 2009), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

If this trend is confirmed in other polls apparently due this weekend (ht BWS) then things start to look a bit interesting.

Are voters reacting to record inflation and high unemployment?  Is it the muddling through on the economy?  The mess that is unfolding in Christchurch?  The botched RWC opening?  The broken GST promise?  The bizare attack on schools?  Your guess is as good as mine.  But factor in some extra abuse of the democratic process, another stagnant quarter and a credit downgrade or two, and who knows what next month’s polls will be showing.

84 comments on “Gap closes in latest Morgan poll”

  1. fabregas4 1

    If National end up without a coalition partner, and this is looking more likely each Brash filled day, then this gets really interesting. Key is being attacked by a lot of media now – see Fran O’Sullivan in today’s NZH, and the Photo Op piece on the Nation today for examples. When folk begin to consider just how worse off they are after three years of this lot and National are exposed as the do nothing party the gap will narrow even more quickly.

    • J Mex 1.1

      I wonder if Anthony Robbins will be writing a post on the One News and 3 News (worst ever result for Labour alone) polls?

      • r0b 1.1.1

        Why wouldn’t I J Mex? Unlike some blogs, we don’t close our eyes to disagreeable facts here.

        • J Mex 1.1.1.1

          Credit for that R0b. And you haven’t gone for the “Look! A great poll for Labour”, followed by “Poll’s are pointless” strategy which I have seen elsewhere.

          • r0b 1.1.1.1.1

            Cheers J Mex, yeah we do try for a little intellectual honesty here.  

            Polls are what they are, flawed instruments, currently very bad for Labour, only significant on average and over reasonable time periods.  I write about them because we’re a political blog, but I don’t see much point in getting too worked up about them.

      • swordfish 1.1.2

        J Mex: “worst ever result for Labour alone”

        Yeah, you just made that up, didn’t you. You know it’s the biggest load of old bollocks since the French introduced vows of fidelity into their Wedding Service.

        • J Mex 1.1.2.1

          Actually, honest mistake.

          Worst result for Labour in 15 years

          • McFlock 1.1.2.1.1

            I bet this isn’t the first time you’ve been masturbating in public, JMex. Does the fantasy make it more enjoyable?

            • J Mex 1.1.2.1.1.1

              “What we’re not prepared to accept are pointless personal attacks, or tone or language that has the effect of excluding others. We are intolerant of people starting or continuing flamewars where there is little discussion or debate.”

              Let’s see how long it takes an admin to deal with your comment. If you were a “RWNJ”, you would probably get a week ban.

              [It’s a very hard call moderating this kind of stuff – when does “full and frank discussion” between consenting adults cross the line? As far as I recall it’s the first complaint about McFlock so I’m going to leave it. – r0b]

              • McFlock

                Meh – if the mods think it’s overboard, fair enough. But the point was that you were, IMO, being a bit of a jerk. And you didn’t really have much cause for the gloating, polls being capricious and flighty wee things.

  2. mik e 2

    Promise and not deliver
    borrow and hope

  3. Nick C 3

    The Roy Morgan is quite good for Labour

    I do however note that the comment you hat tipped by BWS hints that the TV3 and TVNZ polls will show no such shift in momentum towards Labour.

    • lprent 3.1

      I don’t even think that it is a momentum towards Labour. I think that the previous poll was just reflecting the feel-good effect of the RWS and was literally a blip. Have a look at the abrupt change in trend on the confidence value.

      I just find it interesting that BWS implied that both other polls had different figures. I’m tried to figure out who’d have the information for both and came up empty. I suspect that it is more a hope than reality.

      • Lanthanide 3.1.1

        Rugby World Swindle?

        When the issue of competing television political polls came up on iPredict, the admin there contacted various people at one of the stations and was told that generally no one would have access to both lots of results until they’re published by their respective stations. Apparently only a handful of people from each station would actually have the results, so as to help prevent leakage and tip-offs to the political parties (if they want to go and get a comment from the leader who is unprepared, for example).

      • BWS 3.1.2

        lprent I will wager both the TV3 and TVNZ polls show a shift towards National, and away from Labour, tomorrow night.

        I don’t have inside information. But the gamblers at ipredict do, and I observed on Thursday that there was a shift of two cents on Thursday, just at the time that both polls’ data had finished, and I surmised that the shift was as a result of the inside information that was available to those pollsters.

        I will also wager that there isn’t a post at the Standard about it tomorrow, although with that statement you have the motivation to prove me wrong.

        • Colonial Viper 3.1.2.1

          I will also wager that there isn’t a post at the Standard about it tomorrow, although with that statement you have the motivation to prove me wrong.

          And what about the fact that no one gives a shit about your market speculation nonsense?

        • Lanthanide 3.1.2.2

          See my post at 3.1.1.

          The time when iPredict did have specific stocks on these two polls coming out, the admin determined that it was very unlikely that anyone would know the results from both polls in advance. Those particular stocks also didn’t seem to show any specific large amount of insider trading, at the time.

          Sure, if one person knew the results from a poll that was strongly negative for a party they could trade on that, but just an average ho-hum result from 1 poll wouldn’t be sufficient to move the market, I don’t think.

          • Pete George 3.1.2.2.1

            ipredict has been pushed and pulled all over the place oveer the last week or two, I don’t think you can get much out of what’s happening there.

            I detailed some of the volatility here: http://yournz.org/2011/09/29/i-unpredictability/

            As an example for Labour over the past few days:
            Wednesday 21.50 – 31%
            Thursday 17:54 – 27%
            Friday 17:51 – 24%
            Friday 21.00 – 30%
            Saturday 7:12 – 28.5%
            Saturday 11.13 (last trade) – 29.7%

            You can take what you like from that.

            • Colonial Viper 3.1.2.2.1.1

              You can take what you like from that.

              Same as the value of gold and silver: completely manipulated by the likes of JPM and the commodity exchange lap dogs who set the margin requirements for trade.

        • mik e 3.1.2.3

          Now that Dan Carter is in doubt for world cup backlash could occur especially as john key is pinning his hopes on All Blacks victory ie parliamentary rant.

        • lprent 3.1.2.4

          IPredict is simply too small a market to have a use apart from looking at who wants to make the ‘market’ move and speculating on their motivations. Just look at the strangely unrealistic expectations of ACT’s vote for instance or Trevor Mallard making observations looking at the machinations on the Auckland Central vote.

          Because the market is so tiny, rumor making for the purposes of short selling appears to be rife – I frequently see it in comments here.

          The movement in the polls is likely to largely be affected by when the polls were taken. The Morgan poll is taken fortnightly and is released a few days after it finishes. Most of the other polls are monthly at best and are usually fossilized pictures of early in the month. Since the earlier Morgan poll showed a sharp bump to the government in the lead up to the RWC and then an equally sharp fall in the last poll, I think that looking at the dates on the TVNZ and TV3 polls (as well as their known sampling biases) will allow anyone too predict the outcome…

          Authors will write what they choose to write irrespective of your rather transparently silly behavior..

          Oh and FYI, I do not bet ever. I will sometimes take money from those who do when I am absolutely confident of outcomes.. The polls are too uncertain in their underlying implementation methodology to achieve that. Chicken entrails would probably be a better bet.

    • Jum 3.2

      Nick C, ‘The Roy Morgan is quite good for Labour’

      Sorry, I don’t buy snake-oil from the Nick C’s of this world.

    • Ari 3.3

      I don’t think Roy Morgan has a 4.5% bias in favor of Labour, Nick, so shove it, lol.

      (and I wouldn’t claim that the bias of other polls, like for instance the TV1 poll, was that significant, either. Usually bias is within the margin of error)

  4. Akldnut 4

    Don’t worry Mr smiley wavy man will get us through these tough economic times, he’ll prove it at the next photo op.

    Look I smile and wave it away.

  5. ak 5

    It’s the vibe, r0b. The vibe of the neglected mistress finally realising what she’s done.

    The NACT marketeers, under Joyce’s baton, have poured millions into individually-tailored “approaches” to key individuals under the banner of “relationship building”.

    Starting with the press and talkback in 2004, this tactic gathered up the Maori Party (including even Hone for a time), the Woodhams, Shadbolts, Glens, Leitches, the Iwi Leadership Group – anyone of “celebrity” and “worthy” of quotation in the media – tweets and twitters, little notes from Grinny, fawning, flattery, respectful listening, “whatever it takes” on a carefully plotted individual basis exemplarised most blatantly perhaps by the PM taking Garner and Espiner out on the piss and the Mediaworks loan.

    But the party’s over. The stud turned out to be a mincer. The trinkets dried up and Sugar-daddy’s now double-downgrade: double-dipton no friend indeed.

    The big swinging dick’s gone limp over kittens and his rubber wool cup flows over with league.

    It’s the vibe, people. Get those leaflets out and billboards up, the day of the underdog dawns.

    • marsman 5.1

      @ ak. I like what you say and I like how you say it!

    • M 5.2

      ‘Get those leaflets out and billboards up, the day of the underdog dawns.’

      ak, I’ve had a huge Labour billboard in my front yard since the 26th after flagging down some intrepid Labour supporters putting up a sign on public land and offered my place as it’s on a main drag.

      Please, a victory for the left and let’s get rid of this shameless, divisive and cruel government. Seeing Key slope off into the sunset would make my year.

    • AAMC 5.3

      “Get those leaflets out and billboards up, the day of the underdog dawns.”

      And get the spray cans out and create your own billboards!

      • Anne 5.3.1

        I can think of a few other things to do with the spray paint. That smarmy, smiling, lying-eyed John Key photo that’s springing up all over the place. 😎

        • Ari 5.3.1.1

          You should certainly not spraypaint brainless sayings next to John Key on billboards. That would be illegal. Wink. And wrong. Wink. Even though it absolutely wouldn’t hurt anyone, you still shouldn’t do it.

          Wink.

          • Anne 5.3.1.1.1

            Agreed Ari 😉
            And you shouldn’t reeeally just slap paint willy nilly over “the face”. 😉

            • Colonial Viper 5.3.1.1.1.1

              Red paint bombs might work well for a spot of decorating, not suggesting mind you, just sayin’ hypothetically.

        • Redbaron77 5.3.1.2

          Vandalism of National billboards won’t win any favours amongst the voting people. It’s desperate and more likely to be counter-productive particularly view of the fact that the political tide appears to be turning for JK and his team.

          • felix 5.3.1.2.1

            It’s what you do with it.

            Something that hijacks a billboard to make a valid criticism in an interesting way – good.

            Line drawing of a jizzing cock on Key’s face – probably not so good.

          • Deadly_NZ 5.3.1.2.2

            Anyway they and yours, will probably be vandalised by disaffected teens who cannot vote but have been shafted by Bennet and Key.

          • AAMC 5.3.1.2.3

            Agreed, but a nice neat stencil which plays on the “building a brighter future” tagline might be nice.

            Even better, all urban environments have lots of bare walls, everywhere else in the world they are used as a means of expression for those who don’t have a mainstream voice.We’re just all a bit too polite and beige for that sort of carry on though, well trained.

            Separate note, heard Unite talking about occupywallstreet type action during last week of RWC, “while the whole world is watching”, this too could really backfire, many New Zealanders will see it as bad taste, unless it has real momentum, it’ll have reverse effect.

            Why not wait till the week after the finals, the election is an internal issue, does the world really need to see if it turns all swing voters away from the Left when the narrative is turning our way?

  6. Zaphod Beeblebrox 6

    Presumably this poll does not reflect the credit rating downgrade.

    • The Voice of Reason 6.1

      Nope, but this article does! The Morgan poll covers the period from the 12th to 25th, which is past the RWC opening fiasco, but before the credit drop.

      • Tiger Mountain 6.1.1

        Heh, the simpering Armstrong would have had a good supply of medical strength sick bags at his side as he wrote that one. Even Franny wrote a mild “emperor has less clothes than we hoped” piece.

        Perhaps some of the journos have finally had a glimmer of what the numbers and the antics of Don “one toke over the line sweet jesus” Brash may mean. Holy s**t those f*****s might be back again… the press gallery types may be thinking as they stare at the ceiling transitioning from drunk to hungover just before dawn.

        • Carol 6.1.1.1

          It looks to me like Armstrong is saying, National/Key haven’t been proactive enough, but that Labour’s/Cunliffe’s attacks on English’s stats were based on shonkey stats, while English/National had it right and are actually doing a good job.

          i.e. some double-talking on Armstrong’s part. He praises Labour while slamming them, and the opposite re-National.

          • swordfish 6.1.1.1.1

            Actually, that also tends to be Jane Clifton’s modus operandi in The Listener. What at first sight looks like a critique of the National Government more often than not turns out to be a back-handed compliment.

          • Craig Glen Eden 6.1.1.1.2

            Yup thats how I read it to Carol which is Armstrong’s normal mode of operation. When he half praises Labour on any issue he will then go but by the way its not true even though I have just written half my article saying it has merit.

            Armstrong covers the Nats arse at every turn make no mistake about it, he works tirelessly on their behalf he is certainly no balanced journalist. His buy the way always has a fish hook that is bigger than fish he has just fried.

      • Draco T Bastard 6.1.2

        Another eulogy of NAct from John Armstrong.

  7. Tiger Mountain 7

    Who knows what the other bent polls will say, one can guess though. Things are going to get more ugly and unpleasant if ShonKey and his pillagers get another term. The Prime Mincer of course will leg it to Hawaii never to be seen again before the end of a second term. Good luck to that, the 99%ers are giving Wall St a good rev up, the money men will soon have to think harder about where to hide out. There is a classic vid http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYAockXp8sY&sns=fb inclusive of champagne sippers on a balcony looking down with amusement on the protest.

    A major worry here is the thousands of under 30s not enrolled to vote. All Standard readers can grab a handful of forms and pester family, friends and whoever else to enrol and break through the fear and loathing of the disengaged.

    • anne 7.1

      The polls on tv are unbelievable,is there really that amount of braindead people out there that hang off every word ‘shonkey johnkey’ says.
      yes if he gets in again he will probably go to hawaii with his army of protectors,as if he needs
      them over there,or does he,that guy that scared him,might just jump in jk’s case.
      The finance ministers paws are still in the lolly jar collecting $900pw accommodation benefit from the tax-payer,while he changes his dipton farm from sheep to dairy and then gives $300 grand to fonterra for advertising and promotion costs,corruption yes, while screwing all nz’ers.

  8. ianmac 8

    Tiger. The lack of Student engagement is a worry. Those intelligent 18+ students had a distant legacy of protest over issues but now…..

  9. Get the pamphelts out alright but lets hand them out.Letter boxing is a waste of time and effort.Go to the local markets and pass them out with a smile ,its a winner. Take the word of an ex postman ,the famous Pink one that all letter boxing causes is a box of waste paper.The other sucessfull way is putting them under windscreen wipers .As late Joe Hill said ,organize !Organize ! lets beat these bastards ,Another three years would be a disaster,

  10. gingercrush 10

    Seems like a classic Roy Morgan poll to me. You’ll notice National and Labours votes can often fluctuate like this.

    • lprent 10.1

      Yeah, but I suspect the fluctuation was on the previous poll which shifted from the longer term trend that has just been reverted to.

      BTW: Have a look at confidence graph. Looks like a RWC effect to me – which we won’t know about for sure for some time after the end of the RWC.

  11. randal 11

    Well he has already become a back number in the Sunday Star Times advert in the dompost this morning. Just another fish and chips wrapper and about as wholesome and as nourishing.

  12. Jum 12

    ‘PM taking Garner and Espiner out on the piss’ (AK 5
    1 October 2011 at 1:28 pm)

    If anything was designed to make me really angry at what the current journalists are stooping to, this has just got to be rock bottom.

    Garner and Espiner – you make me worry about the freedoms of New Zealand and New Zealanders when you accept bribes from prime ministers to give them good press..

    Be assured; New Zealanders will come looking for you when the nasty stuff starts if Key gets back in. The fallout in large part will be due to your betrayals of objectivity in journalism.

    • Anne 12.1

      @ Jum
      ‘PM taking Garner and Espiner out on the piss’ (AK 5
      1 October 2011 at 1:28 pm)

      Can you tell me where that info. came from? Would like to look it up.

      • Jum 12.1.1

        Anne,

        Ask AK on this thread:

        (ak 5
        1 October 2011 at 1:28 pm

        It’s the vibe, r0b. The vibe of the neglected mistress finally realising what she’s done.

        The NACT marketeers, under Joyce’s baton, have poured millions into individually-tailored “approaches” to key individuals under the banner of “relationship building”.

        Starting with the press and talkback in 2004, this tactic gathered up the Maori Party (including even Hone for a time), the Woodhams, Shadbolts, Glens, Leitches, the Iwi Leadership Group – anyone of “celebrity” and “worthy” of quotation in the media – tweets and twitters, little notes from Grinny, fawning, flattery, respectful listening, “whatever it takes” on a carefully plotted individual basis

        exemplarised most blatantly perhaps by the PM taking Garner and Espiner out on the piss and the Mediaworks loan.)

        • Anne 12.1.1.1

          Got it. Been working today- tired.

          • Jum 12.1.1.1.1

            Anne, no prob – put your feet up; the battle has only just begun.

            I’m still conversing with ‘handle’ who so far hasn’t impressed me with a reason for continuing a discussion. Perhaps you know ‘handle’?

            Perhaps you can tell me why he/she is determined to stop me from voicing my personal opinion that I am disappointed in the general voting public. No don’t worry. I’m sure he/she will tell me in their own good time; I just hope I don’t sleep through it.

            • Anne 12.1.1.1.1.1

              Saw handle’s comment. Stupid and senseless. Thought of responding but decided wasn’t worth it. He’s obviously a NAct troll and best ignored.

  13. Jum 13

    Actually, that also tends to be Jane Clifton’s modus operandi in The Listener. What at first sight looks like a critique of the National Government more often than not turns out to be a back-handed compliment.

    Swordfish 6.1.1.1.1 and Craig Glen Eden 6.1.1.1.2
    You are so right about the snake oil delivered by Jane Clifton, partner to Minister McCully and other political journalists – I don’t know about Armstrong – at least he informed us when Key lied, then English, re changing words of Helen Clark pre 2008 election. When you are owned by overseas media that wants rightwing government and you want to keep your job… But Clifton; I have no such reservations. You only have to listen to her on the good morning show political segment. Jane Clifton is rightwing and her columns rightwing, no matter how they seem. The bitter aftertaste for the left is always evident.

    • swordfish 13.1

      Yep. With Jane “Hockey-Sticks” Clifton it’s a case of The Empress has no clothes. She tends to quite aggressively regurgitate the official Nat Government line, while dressing it up as “balanced” by including a few minor and superficial criticisms (more often than not, back-handed compliments).

  14. Jenny 14

    Give a seat to Winston

  15. Can someone please explain in dumbass terms, with mmp, if a party doesn’t get 5% of the party vote, but gets One electoral MP, how many more MP’s does that party get in parliament.

    • Pascal's bookie 15.1

      If they win an electorate seat, the 5% threshold gets dropped and they get as many seats as their list vote entitles them to.

      To simplify it, imagine there was a 100 seat parliament, and the Dale party got 4 % of the list vote.

      If they didn’t win an electorate seat then they would be out of luck due to the threshold.

      If they did win an electorate seat however, then the threshold doesn’t apply and they are entitled to 4 seats (4% of 100).

      So they would get their electorate seat, plus 3 members off the list.

      That’s the basic model, but there are some complicating factors to do with overhangs and what not that affect the size of parliament, and so affect the number of list seats you’d get.

      But the basic idea is that your list vote determines how many total seats you get. If you don’t get an electorate or 5% then you don’t get any. But if you get either 5 % of the list vote, or a single electorate, then you get however many seats your list vote entitles you to.

      • Lanthanide 15.1.1

        Actually the total size of parliament doesn’t affect how many seats any party gets when calculating list seats.

        For example if 1 party won all 70 electorate seats and 0% of the party vote, and another party won 100% of the party vote, we’d end up with 190 MPs in total (the maximum possible overhang).

        Overhangs occur when 1 party wins more electorate seats than it’s party vote share would normally allow for, as has been the case with the Maori Party in the last election. But the overhang for that specific party doesn’t affect the seat outcomes of any other party.

        Calculator: http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/mmp/mmp-calculator.html
        Formula (really it’s an algorithm): http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/mmp/sainte-lague.html

  16. Pascal’s Bookie

    Thanks, that actually explains it real well!!!

  17. Draco T Bastard 17

    This misreporting by 3 News should have the RWNJs panicking.

    Labour’s on 38.4 percent support in the poll, followed by the Maori Party on 22.2 percent, while National’s on just 16.4 percent.

    That is in stark contrast to other media polls, which put National above 50 percent support, with Labour rating at 30 percent or less, and the Maori Party on around one percent support.

    • Lanthanide 17.1

      It doesn’t even mention the mana outcome. The parties they’ve listed account for 77%, so there’s still a good 23% to split between Greens and Mana with some scraps left over for the rest.

      • McFlock 17.1.1

        Mana is apparently 8.5% of general role Maori voters, but 12% of Maori roll voters.

        The Maori electorate breakdown is interesting, though.

        • swordfish 17.1.1.1

          McFlock

          No, I think its:

          (1) Maori on General Roll = 1.6% (Mana)
          (2) Maori on Maori Roll = 12% (Mana)

          All Maori (1)+(2) = 8.5% (Mana)

  18. BWS 18

    Oh look, it turns out my predictions for the TV3 and TVNZ polls turned out to be right.

    • McFlock 18.1

      Not quite. TV3, ok.
      TV1 shows Nat unchanged, labour down 1 (so at best you are half right with “away from labour”). Greens up 3, total lab/green is up 2, and total govt is down 1 (Act).
      Shame you used “both” and “and”. “Or” would have meant you won the bet.
       
       

      • Draco T Bastard 18.1.1

        Wow, don’t you just love the total misleading headline from TV3?

        Latest 3 News poll shows Nat’s support doubled

        No you fucken morons, it hasn’t doubled at all. If it had it would be over 100%.

        • happynz 18.1.1.1

          It’s that new math, don’tcha know?

          If Key were drunk driving and smashed into a pet shop squishing a dozen puppies to death TV3 and TV1 would lead with the story that John Key had single-handedly saved Auckland from a rampaging wolf pack.

  19. randal 19

    At the moment the country is suffering from a mass delusion. you know like the ones where the banking system thought the sub prime mortgages would go on forever. After the party Kiwis will come to their senses and vote for the party that looks after them and not the rich or more importantly the two bob tories who think that if they vote national then they are somebody. yettttccccch.

  20. Jasper 20

    A leaked internal National party poll. Oops! The nat’s are in trouble!
    National 44%
    Labour 23%
    Greens 22%
    Mana, NZ First, Maori Party 11%
    Act are history and did not feature in their polling results! Meaning they’re going to stand Goldsmith as their Epsom candidate.

    ACT faces further turmoil today as the results of a leaked poll are aired, a blow to the party and Don Brash’s leadership. The poll reveals details of a leaked poll that shows John Banks will not win in Epsom “if” National is polling more than 50 per cent nationwide and does not need ACT’s support.
    The survey, understood to be a three-scenario poll by National’s pollster, David Farrar, is believed to show that, if National drops to about 45 per cent it would need ACT’s support to form a government, then Mr Banks would win.
    Voters in Epsom would be likely to back National candidate Paul Goldsmith, effectively putting ACT to the sword.
    -Drunk’n Gardener.

    This was released at 5am this morning after they massaged the numbers again! They couldn’t stomach what the raw data was say’n which are the numbers above! Haha!!

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    South African coach Rassie Erasmus says he has no idea what they’re going to do about the boat. In a highly anticipated press conference this afternoon, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has finally unveiled the team’s boat for its Rugby World Cup 2019 campaign. In a press conference that went ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 day ago
  • An increasingly shoddy coverup
    The Operation Burnham inquiry continued to question senior NZDF staff today, and their shoddy coverup over their knowledge of civilian casualties continue to fall apart. If you recall, first, we were asked to believe that it was all a series of "mistakes and errors": a senior officer with multiple degrees ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • If we are to avoid making the earth uninhabitable, we need to rapidly decarbonise our civilisation, and cut emissions to zero as quickly as possible. This seems like an impossible task, but its not. Pushing hard on a few technologies and trends will let us halve emissions in a decade:Greenhouse ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • A further attack on transparency
    The Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) had part of its committee stage yesterday. its a generally tedious bill about the nitty-gritty of local government reorganisation. But it includes a clause making the Local Government Commission subject to the Ombudsmen Act, and hence the OIA. Great! Except of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Ihumātao and Treaty settlements
    Yesterday Ihumātao's mana whenua reached a consensus that they would like their land back, and asked the government to negotiate with Fletcher's for its return. The government's response? Try and undermine that consensus, while talking about how doing anything would undermine existing Treaty settlements. The first is just more bad ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Protecting our history
    Its Suffrage Day, the 126th anniversary of women winning the right to vote (but not stand in elections) in New Zealand. And to celebrate, the government has bought Kate Sheppard's house in Christchurch:The government has bought Kate Sheppard's former home in Christchurch for more than $4 million. The Ilam villa ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: Ostracising the coal-burners
    The UN climate summit is happening in new York next week, and unlike previous years, coal-burners and denier-states are not being invited to speak:Leading economies such as Japan and Australia will not be invited to speak at next week’s crunch UN climate change summit, as their continued support for coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Jojo Tamihere Salutes Herr Goff.
    Get Back Jojo! The elation in Mayor Phil Goff’s camp may be easily imagined as they watched social media light up in indignation at challenger John Tamihere’s "Sieg Heil to that" quip. Just when JT’s notoriously right-wing, sexist and homophobic stains were beginning to fade back into his ‘colourful’ past, ...
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: A fun but flawed weed documentary
    Patrick Gower is good value when he's high. Not that I've ever, you know, got stoned with him. But in the second part of his documentary Patrick Gower on Weed, he does what you'd expect in a modern weed documentary and immerses himself – first with a doctor, then a ...
    2 days ago
  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 days ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    3 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    4 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    4 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    4 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    4 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    5 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    7 days ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    7 days ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    1 week ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    1 week ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

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