web analytics

Getting it right

Written By: - Date published: 10:25 am, December 14th, 2009 - 22 comments
Categories: articles - Tags:

Colin Espiner has a piece in the Dom Post today attributing Labour’s four point rise in the polls to Goff’s ‘Nationhood’ speech.

He goes on, in what can’t help but be interpreted as a wee dig at The Standard:

after 30 years in politics, it’s also possible [Goff] knows the electorate a bit better than some of the 20-something handwringers who write for Labour’s websites.

Dear oh dear, Colin. Here’s what I actually wrote:

It’s possible that Goff might have won over some of the iwi/kiwi racists with the speech, he might even see a poll bounce (though nothing that would compare favourably with Brash’s 17%) but even if it works, is this any basis on which to build a sustainable progressive alternative?

Looks like we called it right again. Which is doubly ironic, considering that at the time Colin was pretty dismissive of the political impact of the speech, warning that Goff “risks smoke damage” because he “has neither Winston Peters’ snake-oil charm nor Dr Brash’s colonial tea-planter’s honesty” and white working class battlers won’t believe he’s being genuine.

Regardless, I still wonder whether it was worth burning progressive bridges for what is a pretty small poll gain with no clear trend yet evident. But hey, I’m no big city political correspondent, what would I know?

22 comments on “Getting it right ”

  1. The bounce may have had more than a little to do with the absolute shambles that NACT made of implementing the truely awful ETS changes. This occurred during the period this poll was conducted.

    Espiner’s coments are more than a little cheap. It seems to me that the MSM are relying more and more on blogs such as the Standard for analysis and breaking news.

  2. IrishBill 2

    It’s been a wee while since I was a “20-something” and I’ve never been a hand-wringer. In fact most of us are of advancing years. Maybe our youthful political vigor is misleading.

    • lprent 2.1

      Colin Espiner is just a spring chicken, and not a particularly bright one in my opinion.

      I’m 50 and the only 20 something that I know who writes here (admitably I don’t know a lot of them) is rocky at age 22. Of course she probably has more real life experience than a protected desk clerk like Colin.

      Unless he is talking about Red Alert? That is a Labour blog. This isn’t…. And they’re definitely not 20 something…

      Does Colin Espiner really live in his own fantasy world?

    • Bill 2.2

      Maybe he means 20 something as in couple of dozen? Which means he is saying that Goff might know a bit more than some unqualified number of them…one or two of them?

      Perfectly reasonable

      • lprent 2.2.1

        We haven’t made it quite to 20 people yet who can write here – there have been a few drop-offs over time. It would be close though.

  3. snoozer 3

    just read the article, ok skimmed it.

    I love that he’s gone out of his way to have a crack at you but hasn’t bothered to check his facts first. If you or other bloggers did that you would get hammered for it in the comments thread and rightly so.

    That’s one of the many things blogs have over msm journalism, the writers have the immediate feedback of the comments.

  4. Horse 4

    “considering that at the time Colin was pretty dismissive of the political impact of the speech,”

    If you spend any time reading Colin’s blog, you’ll realise that he generally has no memory of anything he wrote last week (or at least wishes he didn’t), and assumes you don’t either. That makes it much easier to describe the political events of the day as obvious to a careful observer such as himself.

  5. Tim Ellis 5

    Those are valid points Eddie.

    Underlying Mr Espiner’s thinking is the assumption that there has been a rise in support for the Labour Party. It’s very easy for people to get excited from poll to poll, but a four point pick up between two polls isn’t significant of itself. If there were a number of polls saying the same thing, then you could probably conclude that events in November were influential in a change in support. With just one poll however there isn’t enough evidence to say that there’s been any movement, and that it’s more than polling error between polls.

    Polls bounce around a lot. In my view there just isn’t enough information to conclude a shift from one side to the other.

    There certainly is evidence that Labour has lost support since the election, and National has gained support since the election, but the evidence of movement in the last few months is quite limited.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 5.1

      Good summary.

      The thing missed is that the Maori Party lost over 1/3rd of its support. It likely went to the Greens. Interesting to see if they recover that vote next time.

      • Daveski 5.1.1

        I agree with one of eddie’s posts and someone compliment’s TE comments.

        Have we entered the Matrix already???

        • lprent 5.1.1.1

          I think that Irish already asked that after he agreed with Garth George.

          But the posters here tend to be pretty damn skeptical about polls, and as TE says, you need to have a sustained change in direction to be interesting. Moreover you usually need to see the same trend between different polls to eliminate sample bias.

          That said, this poll is encouraging. It exceeded margins of error for most of the interesting numbers.

          However trying to interpolate why people shift position is always an interesting question. Polls are pretty weak on asking that type of information and people a really weak on knowing why they shift themselves.

  6. gingercrush 6

    Yes I’m not sure why they see the “Nationhood” speech as being responsible for Goff’s climb in the poll. When TV 3 poll actually just reflects the poll TVNZ released late November and the poll Roy Morgan released very early in December. Hell the TV 3 poll is still better than either the TVNZ or the Roy Morgan poll for National.

    The fact TV 3’s poll saw sizable falls for Key as preferred PM and for Key’s rating as a leader are perhaps significant but that would be growing dissatisfaction with this government than anything else. But my preferred opinion is that TV 3’s poll in October was so out of whack with other polls that this poll is merely a better reflection of where support currently lies.

    • snoozer 6.1

      I think the bigger story is the rapid slide in Key’s popularity.

      Like a lot of people have been saying, it’s up to Labour and Goff to seize the rapidly growing dissatisfaction with do nothing Key and his corrupt government by giving people a credible alternative to vote for.

  7. Sanctuary 7

    The reaction to the Goff speech struck we as interesting because it just reinforced how unrepresentative the blogsphere in New Zealand actually is. As it is, the NZ blogsphere simply acts as an echo chamber of the dominant ruling class in this country.

    Political discourse on the internet consists of a bunch of aging, bitter and angry white men (the right) arguing with a bunch of aging, worrying and leftish white men. Both sides are dominated by white, middle class forty *mumble* something men who bring to the debate all the arrogant certainty of their age, race, income and dominant class.

    It should be an important reminder that the blogsphere is a completely unreliable measure of public opinion, but unfortunately most of our journalists are drawn from the same ruling class, so they find that interviewing their browsers simultaneously strokes their class bias and gives them a fig leaf of “research”.

  8. You wont find me saying this often but I think Tim Ellis and Ginger Crush are ri rig righ correct.

    Heck that hurt to type.

  9. ieuan 9

    I think he is using the term ’20-something’ to mean ‘naive’.

    I doubt that any bounce in the polls for Labour is due to the ‘Nationhood’ speech, my guess is 99% of the population didn’t even notice it.

    Putting aside normal polling variations I would say a few natural Labour supporters are drifting back to the party as they see that National are really not that great, ACC increases, Rodney’s travel etc would have more of effect on the average voter than Goff’s speech.

  10. Jonathan 10

    “Labour is making inroads though, with the poll showing the party’s support has risen 3.6 to 30.8 per cent.”

    So still 3% less than on election night…so much for the success of this ‘nationhood’ carry-on aye..

  11. I think the significant factor is that Goff is now starting to rate amongst voters as a credible leader. Jonathan is right to point out that Labour are still behind the election night polling, but the drop since the election could well be those that voted Labour specifically because of HC’s personal mana.

    As Goff’s support rises, the Labour vote will also firm up. National’s vote has nowhere to go but down.

  12. BLiP 12

    The sheer indolence of the MSM is remarkable. The Espiner Twins, Duncan “doughnut” Garner and the rest of the gormless Gallery are all pointing to Goff’s speech as being the primary cause of the shift in the polls. Far easier to interview their keyboards and pronounce upon their musings than get off their backsides and consider what else might be involved.

    How about the on-going rorting by MPs, Chopper Tolley pissing off the country’s teachers, what about the tens of thousands denied on-going education, the tens of thousands now on the dole queue, and the growing realisation that National Ltd® is colluding in a tobacco-industry style obfustication of data in relation to the environment. And, although anecdotal, I have seen a certain shifting of perceptions at work and amongst family, mates and acquaintances at how, this Christmas, there’s not nearly as much to splash on presents and holidays as there was just a year ago. Don’t these have *any* impact on the poll?

    Nasty little snipes from Espiner et al should be greeted with cheers for they indicate the growing realisation amongst the MSM “churnalists” that they are becoming increasingly irrelevant in political and social discourse.

    • lprent 12.1

      The perception shift happened about 2 months ago. All of a sudden the government was perceived as being a bit shite (as one person described it to me). It was a whole pile of little things that did it.

      Goffs speech may have affected his ratings, but I think that much of it is purely the crap government getting through to people as the recession hits harder.

    • Macro 12.2

      You hit the nail on the head Blip! It’s suddenly starting to dawn on people just what they did at the last election – some people are VERY slow learners.

  13. gingercrush 13

    Weee more news of thought. More disagreed with Goff’s speech than agreed with it. Yet Duncan still seems to want to portray that speech as the reason for Labour’s rise in the polls and National’s fall.

    An overwhelming 61.1 percent said it was just to get more media attention as Labour’s leader. I had a wee chuckle at that tidbit. Goff has rejected the poll findings saying he was genuine. Yeah sure you were Goff.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Government Northland housing investment to spark transformational change
    Over $10 million infrastructure funding to unlock housing in Whangārei The purchase of a 3.279 hectare site in Kerikeri to enable 56 new homes Northland becomes eligible for $100 million scheme for affordable rentals Multiple Northland communities will benefit from multiple Government housing investments, delivering thousands of new homes for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • Battle of Ohaeawai remembered
    A memorial event at a key battle site in the New Zealand land wars is an important event to mark the progress in relations between Māori and the Crown as we head towards Waitangi Day, Minister for Te Arawhiti Kelvin Davis said. The Battle of Ohaeawai in June 1845 saw ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • More Police deployed to the frontline
    More Police officers are being deployed to the frontline with the graduation of 54 new constables from the Royal New Zealand Police College today. The graduation ceremony for Recruit Wing 362 at Te Rauparaha Arena in Porirua was the first official event for Stuart Nash since his reappointment as Police ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Further support for upper North Island regions hit by significant weather
    The Government is unlocking an additional $700,000 in support for regions that have been badly hit by the recent flooding and storm damage in the upper North Island. “We’re supporting the response and recovery of Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel, Northland, and Bay of Plenty regions, through activating Enhanced Taskforce Green to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • The Princess Royal to visit New Zealand
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has welcomed the announcement that Her Royal Highness The Princess Royal, Princess Anne, will visit New Zealand this month. “Princess Anne is travelling to Aotearoa at the request of the NZ Army’s Royal New Zealand Corps of Signals, of which she is Colonel in Chief, to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government and horticulture sector target $12b in exports by 2035
    A new Government and industry strategy launched today has its sights on growing the value of New Zealand’s horticultural production to $12 billion by 2035, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said. “Our food and fibre exports are vital to New Zealand’s economic security. We’re focussed on long-term strategies that build on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Cost of living support extended for families and businesses
    25 cents per litre petrol excise duty cut extended to 30 June 2023 – reducing an average 60 litre tank of petrol by $17.25 Road User Charge discount will be re-introduced and continue through until 30 June Half price public transport fares extended to the end of June 2023 saving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • More Kiwis in work as rising wages match inflation
    The strong economy has attracted more people into the workforce, with a record number of New Zealanders in paid work and wages rising to help with cost of living pressures. “The Government’s economic plan is delivering on more better-paid jobs, growing wages and creating more opportunities for more New Zealanders,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government boosts fund for Auckland flooding
    The Government is providing a further $1 million to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. “Cabinet today agreed that, given the severity of the event, a further $1 million contribution be made. Cabinet wishes to be proactive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Cabinet focused on bread and butter issues
    The new Cabinet will be focused on core bread and butter issues like the cost of living, education, health, housing and keeping communities and businesses safe, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced. “We need a greater focus on what’s in front of New Zealanders right now. The new Cabinet line ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Prime Minister to meet with PM Albanese
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will travel to Canberra next week for an in person meeting with Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. “The trans-Tasman relationship is New Zealand’s closest and most important, and it was crucial to me that my first overseas trip as Prime Minister was to Australia,” Chris Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government makes first payment to Auckland Flooding fund
    The Government is providing establishment funding of $100,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “We moved quickly to make available this funding to support Aucklanders while the full extent of the damage is being assessed,” Kieran McAnulty ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government steps up to assist Auckland during flooding
    As the Mayor of Auckland has announced a state of emergency, the Government, through NEMA, is able to step up support for those affected by flooding in Auckland. “I’d urge people to follow the advice of authorities and check Auckland Emergency Management for the latest information. As always, the Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Poroporoaki: Titewhai Te Huia Hinewhare Harawira
    Ka papā te whatitiri, Hikohiko ana te uira, wāhi rua mai ana rā runga mai o Huruiki maunga Kua hinga te māreikura o te Nota, a Titewhai Harawira Nā reira, e te kahurangi, takoto, e moe Ka mōwai koa a Whakapara, kua uhia te Tai Tokerau e te kapua pōuri ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Enhanced Task Force Green Approved following Cyclone Hale
    Carmel Sepuloni, Minister for Social Development and Employment, has activated Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG) in response to flooding and damaged caused by Cyclone Hale in the Tairāwhiti region. Up to $500,000 will be made available to employ job seekers to support the clean-up. We are still investigating whether other parts ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • General Election to be held on 14 October 2023
    The 2023 General Election will be held on Saturday 14 October 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “Announcing the election date early in the year provides New Zealanders with certainty and has become the practice of this Government and the previous one, and I believe is best practice,” Jacinda ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces resignation
    Jacinda Ardern has announced she will step down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party. Her resignation will take effect on the appointment of a new Prime Minister. A caucus vote to elect a new Party Leader will occur in 3 days’ time on Sunday the 22nd of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Trade and Agriculture Minister to attend World Economic Forum and Global Forum for Food and Agricult...
    The Government is maintaining its strong trade focus in 2023 with Trade and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor visiting Europe this week to discuss the role of agricultural trade in climate change and food security, WTO reform and New Zealand agricultural innovation. Damien O’Connor will travel tomorrow to Switzerland to attend the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Government funding relief for flood-affected Wairarapa farmers and growers
    The Government has extended its medium-scale classification of Cyclone Hale to the Wairarapa after assessing storm damage to the eastern coastline of the region. “We’re making up to $80,000 available to the East Coast Rural Support Trust to help farmers and growers recover from the significant damage in the region,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago