Getting there

Written By: - Date published: 7:58 am, April 5th, 2013 - 31 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, polls - Tags:

So, the trend in the Roy Morgans continues, ever so painfully slowly to move in the Left’s favour.

roy morgan april 2013
Since Labour recovered from its election disaster level to 30+, the Left’s support has risen at a bit under 0.2% per month, the Right vice versa. Lab+Green now outpolls National as often as not. Which is a massive turnaround from two years ago.

nat v lab and green roy morgan polls

But ‘if these trends continue’ is the most dangerous phrase in politics.

Even if these trends do continue (and I know I’m going to get people angry at me for this 18 month – that’s half a fun) Lab+Green is still less than 50% come the campaign and National’s only 6-7& astern.

roy morgan projection

Another bad campaign from Labour, a few Brash moments from Shearer, and that lead evaporates. But there’s no denying that the Left is looking at lot better than a year ago, and Key’s chances of a third term are falling.

31 comments on “Getting there”

  1. Bunji 1

    Actual poll link.

    Labour 34.5% (up 2), Greens 13% (down 0.5), National 44% (up 0.5)

  2. Watching 2

    Using current poll data to predict a 2014 future is questionable. What happens now has some relevance, but now is not great times especially in terms the economy. People are being polled about who they would elect today without any `real’ change taking place.

    Around the world it is easy to be the opposition, and you could assume from poll data that just about every government will be replaced at the next election. What happens next – incoming government sweeps in with new mandates, and yet within a year are trending quickly down the polls – cue France.

    We should recall what Obama was polling in 2010-11, and then came the 2012 election.

    It’s Labour not Labour/Green that needs to get its poll numbers up in preparation for the 2014 election. Labour with under 40% and in power is a whole new ballgame.?

  3. Matthew 3

    I predict that if these trends continue, Cunliffe will roll Shearer next February, just in time to launch a 9mth long election campaign.

    • Jilly Bee 3.1

      I sincerely hope that you’re correct Matthew – I am in the meantime keeping my membership card away from the shredder in the rather fond hope that your prediction is on the button.

    • The Al1en 3.2

      If we’re playing at fantasy politics, then I’d want DC to leave Labour and instead of NZF or the Conservative loonies playing the king maker card, set up shop for himself, inspiring a wave of popular support from the disenfranchised and forgotten to come out and vote, that gets him and his party list well over the threshold, and DS comes and ask his permission to form a government.
      The king of kings 😆

      That’s how I’d write it.

    • David H 3.3

      As long as Cunliffe has a real good clean out too.

      • The Al1en 3.3.1

        A pyre on the steps of parliament to warm the spirits through the coming winter of discontent.
        Build it and they will come.

  4. Te Reo Putake 4

    I wrote this up as a guest post a couple of weeks ago, but, as usual, it disappeared into the dark, silent and non-responsive void that is the Standard’s ‘contribute’ option 😉

    It may still be relevent, however.

    If Labour Needs to Move Left, Why are the Greens Stuck in the Teens?

    A couple of themes that occasionally pop up in The Standard’s comments are the need for the Labour Party to adopt more left wing policies to ‘win’ the next election and, less often, and far less likely, predictions that the NZLP will soon be the junior partner on the left.

    I’m in favour of Labour adopting left wing policies and I will be doing my best to make sure we have credible, well thought out left platforms adopted at the next national conference, in Christchurch, this November. Those policies will be binding on caucus and the party will expect the campaign to be fought on the ideas, issues and solutions the membership want taken to the electorate. I suspect some policies will be dead rats for Shearer and the coterie around him, but tough. That’s democracy.

    But if the Labour Party presents policies that are as left wing as some of those espoused by the Greens, will that make the difference? Will that lift the NZLP vote into the high thirties/low forties, where it should really be under MMP?

    I suspect not.

    Whether Standardistas like it or not, a leftist, or even leftish, platform, by itself, does not guarantee support, let alone victory, in Western Parliamentary elections. If it did, then the Greens would already be outpolling Labour. But they are not; and, I confidently predict, they never will.

    There are two reasons for it. Firstly, the Green’s branding limits them to single figures, or just above. The party name suggests that environmental policies are the limit of their ambition. Not true, of course, but that is how they are perceived and themresults reflect that fact.

    It is to the considerable credit of kiwi greens MP’s and activists that the GP has been more successful than any other Green Party worldwide, but that’s as far as its likely to go.

    Secondly, the NZ Labour Party has history on its side. It has been, and remains, the only credible alternative leader of Government in NZ. It’s been National or Labour for 75 years and for a lot of voters, it’s barely different from choosing Ford or Holden when Bathurst rolls around each year.

    National and Labour are the Big Beasts of NZ politics and MMP has not changed that.

    So, what’s the other factor in getting a left Government in place? Well, it’s leadership, obviously enough. And David Shearer’s minor oversight in forgetting he had $50k or more socked away in a yank bank tells me that he doesn’t have what it takes for the kind of victory the NZ people deserve. I’m not saying that he won’t be PM after the next election, but the majority will be painfully thin, when we should be heading for a repeat of 1999. But, then, in ‘99, we had a clear alternative Government to vote for: Labour/Alliance. Few signs yet that NZLP and the Greens will be able to present a similarly credible bloc to vote for this time round.

    My prediction? NZLP 35%, Greens 12%. I’m not even sure that the Greens will be part of the next Government. It could well be a minority LP/NZF with GP support on confidence and supply, because the continuous slippage in National’s vote since the last election will help shore up Winston and I believe Shearer will opt for the least challenging coalition partner, being the pragmatist that he appears to be.

    One final point on Winston; he doesn’t seem to be as belligerent toward the Greens as he was six years ago. Perhaps he’s ready to swallow a dead rat of his own?

    • r0b 4.1

      I wrote this up as a guest post a couple of weeks ago, but, as usual, it disappeared into the dark, silent and non-responsive void that is the Standard’s ‘contribute’ option

      Houston – we have a problem!

      I dunno where that input goes – I’m guessing its probably to lprent, and your guest post probably arrived during his recent coding crunch and was lost in the rush.

      We need a more distributed process?

      • lprent 4.1.1

        Yes. Problem is that I haven’t managed to restart myself on the guest posts because they usually take a reasonably long block of time to put together. Do you want to be added to the gmail?

        I haven’t restarted the mail process at the database server because I haven’t figured out a effective approach to making the server source for the emails to be hidden in the volumes that we want. It is the task for this weekend provided I don’t get too social (or tied down to fixing a current bug in San Diego)

        • Colonial Weka 4.1.1.1

          ” because they usually take a reasonably long block of time to put together.”

          Is that editing? Formatting? I assume the actual posting on site doesn’t take long.

      • Te Reo Putake 4.1.2

        I’m not sure how things work in the Standard collective, r0b, but there may be an author or moderator who is willing to take responsibility for answering emails and the like to lift the burden from LP’s shoulders. I’ve no problem with a post being rejected, of course, but the lack of any response at all isn’t very encouraging for Standardistas who would like to have a crack at writing posts.

    • Draco T Bastard 4.2

      I wrote this up as a guest post a couple of weeks ago, but, as usual, it disappeared into the dark, silent and non-responsive void that is the Standard’s ‘contribute’ option

      Last time I looked the contribute page was broken. I could be wrong but I don’t think it’s been fixed yet. I usually just send an email to thestandardnz(at)gmail.com

      Secondly, the NZ Labour Party has history on its side.

      Actually, the history of Labour shows that a party can come out of left field.

      It has been, and remains, the only credible alternative leader of Government in NZ.

      It’s losing that credibility.

      It’s been National or Labour for 75 years and for a lot of voters, it’s barely different from choosing Ford or Holden when Bathurst rolls around each year.

      Which is, IMO, why nearly 30% of voters didn’t vote.

      BTW, your don’t work.

      • Te Reo Putake 4.2.1

        Cheers, DtB. Sorry bout the links, but I think you may be able to live without seeing yet another photo of Winston grinning like a loon! One other was a link to a list of Green electoral successes around the world, just backing up my point about our GP already being the most succesful ever at a national level and the third was the results of the ’99 election.

        Re: the LP’s credibilty, the RM poll suggests it is slowly regaining the ground it lost under Goff. Even the preferred PM polls elsewhere are suggesting Shearer is gaining traction with voters, which even I find puzzling.

    • felix 4.3

      “If Labour Needs to Move Left, Why are the Greens Stuck in the Teens?”

      Because the Greens are not and never have been ‘Labour but a bit more to the left’?

      Sorry mate but that’s such a lazy comparison, it’s like you’ve actually built a strawman out of apples and oranges. Hardly worth replying to except to ask this:

      If Labour need to focus on the ‘centre’ then why are United Future stuck in the sub-1% range?

      Stupid question, I know, but just as valid.

      • Te Reo Putake 4.3.1

        Nah, I’m not saying the GP are a ‘left labour’, but riffing on the assumption of many that they are to the left of Labour. UF’s problems are neither hair nor there 😉

      • Bunji 4.3.2

        indeed TRP says: “Whether Standardistas like it or not, a leftist, or even leftish, platform, by itself, does not guarantee support, let alone victory, in Western Parliamentary elections.”

        not that moving to the centre will win votes.
        And indeed that TRP wants them to move left…

        I think that the important thing is about having competence and vision and more importantly the appearance of each.
        While Helen wasn’t much of a visionary she was competence personified, which the voters liked. These clowns aren’t exactly visionary either, but for some reason they can cast a mirage of competency that keeps a big chunk of the population happy.

        So competence and then vision. A big chunk of the country won’t actually be bothered whether that vision is left, right or centre (although some will be more susceptible to one than t’other), but if you sell it well, they’ll come along for the ride. (and this lot are a bunch of salesman, so while they haven’t much vision they sell it well… although they’ve never managed to sell their one big policy, asset sales…)

        TRP: Labour 35, Green 12? That’s not overly optimistic with Key (National’s most precious asset) imploding and the RM polls already at that 18 months out… I’d hope for better than that (and definitely a Lab-Grn govt…)

        • Te Reo Putake 4.3.2.1

          “Labour 35, Green 12?”

          I’d certainly be happy if both figures were higher, but my gut feeling is that we (LP/GP) are going to barely scrape in, probably as a minority government. So that combined 47% is the bare minimum needed to be in a position to form a simple coalition. I’m assuming there that NZF get up, limiting National’s overall numbers to about 50 seats and that Mana either endorse the coalition or abstain in the confidence vote. I’m also pretty sure that the MP, ACT and UF will be back, but with only 3 seats between them. So, on my numbers, it would be LP/GP with 55 – 58 seats, Nat bloc 53. Mana and NZF the rest.

    • Colonial Weka 4.4

      “It is to the considerable credit of kiwi greens MP’s and activists that the GP has been more successful than any other Green Party worldwide, but that’s as far as its likely to go.”

      You assert this now and in the past, but you don’t back it up with anything. Other than your wish that this is true, what else makes you believe the Greens will never go higher than they are currently?

      • Te Reo Putake 4.4.1

        Did you read the comment, CW? I backed up my opinion with the fact the NZGP has already acheived the best ever result of any Green Party and the polls since the last election suggest that they cannot do better. Stuck in the low teens seems to be the hightide mark. I also mentioned their branding as limiting their voting potential, so I think you are wrong to say I didn’t back it up.

        I want a strong GP as part of a coalition with my preferred party, Labour. But, history suggests they’ve already peaked. You seem to think they can do better, lets hear how.

        • Colonial Weka 4.4.1.1

          Yes I did read the comment, but I still don’t understand how that supports the idea that the GP has reached its zenith for all time.

          You think that the name + branding = a political limitation. But polling and the shift in the media’s attention suggest otherwise. I’m guessing their membershipt stats might also suggest otherwise. The GP has made some pretty significant changes in recent years, and that is showing up in various ways. One way to understand this is that the party has matured politically. That plus the smarts they now have with media, PR and social networking tools suggests that there is room for growth. There is also the potential of the current non-voters, and we’ve yet to see which party makes inroads there.

          I think your assessment is premature (and honestly, it does come across as wishful thinking from someone in the Labour Party) – when the current form of the GP has been through a few electoral cycles and failed to gain any ground, then it might be time to look at if the GP is permanently stuck.

          • Colonial Weka 4.4.1.1.1

            Re the branding, or more accurately, the perception of the branding… it’s pretty obvious that NZ is shifting steadily with regards to the environment. We are far more aware as a general population about the important of the environment. I can’t see that changing (esp as we will now have successive generations of kids growing up into voters who have been taught environmental issues and values at school). What is not certain is how NZ voters will respond to the complex challenges of teh GFC, PO and CC. It’s likely that some voters who might have otherwise voted Green will vote Labour instead (or NACT), out of fear of the economic issues. But it’s possible that the GP will get their shit together enough to demonstrate that there is no inherent contradiction between the environment and socioeconomic security (and that they are in fact completely intertwined).

            I think you views are a bit FPP. On the horizon are also complex issues, not well understood outside of Maoridom, about what will happen to the MP, Mana and the Maori Labour vote. Under MMP, those have the potential to be critical. We also don’t know what will happen when Winston Peters is finally off the scene. I suppose what I am saying here is that over time, both the political scence and the socioeconomic/environment spheres are going to go through quite big changes. It is very hard to be certain about anything when such change is going on. That’s why your assertions of certainty don’t make sense to me. You may be right about the GP (although I personally don’t think you are), but there is no way to be so certain about it. I can see why it suits someone in the Labour Party to be so certain though 😉

    • The Al1en 4.5

      “If Labour Needs to Move Left, Why are the Greens Stuck in the Teens?”

      My uninformed guess is a big chunk of the left vote are shell shocked into not voting for anyone.

    • just saying 4.6

      Labour ceding the centre-left social democratic ground to the Greens effectively marginalises the position and makes it seem extreme to voters. It is because of its historical position as the “natural” alternative to National that it has a responsibility to hold what is supposed to be its own ground.

      I don’t know about others but I haven’t felt wholehearted in voting Green since Sue Bradford left. While I believe the Turei is doing an excellent job, I fear she and her particular field of issues (broadly, social justice, security, health and well-being) would be the Greens’ primary compromises in coalition, particularly given its environmental focus and the vested interests of its membership demographic.

      Parliament would be a whole different ball-game if working class people were actually represented by our own in proportion to our numbers. I’m heartily sick of being ruled (patronised) by the smug middle class with their delusions of superiority and ambitions of future grandeur.

      • Puddleglum 4.6.1

        Agree with your points, just saying.

        The reason I want Labour to go to the left in both policy AND in rhetoric is that it re-legitimises left ideas in the public arena. It ‘re-centres’ the political discourse.

        Once the Labour Party let both left policy and left rhetoric slip from its raison d’être, it lost a generation of people who now see anything leftist as antiquarian and unsuited to the 21st century (for some peculiar reason, such as ‘new technologies’, ‘post-industrialism’, or whatever – as if any of that changed the fundamental conflict over sites of power in stratified societies).

        That’s one reason why you get people saying nonsense things like ‘neither left nor right’ – a bit like ‘neither true nor false’. It might sound intellectually transcendent and clever – or, worse, ‘pragmatic’ – but it’s just confused and demonstrates a lack of clarity and commitment.

        Left and right have been with us ever since Cain and Abel had a ‘disagreement’ (to decode the myth – agriculture ‘slays’ the shepherd/nomad/hunter-gatherer; thus, toil, social stratification, private property, etc. make their entrance into history, with somewhat unfortunate consequences for the human spirit.)

    • Ad 4.7

      I like your optimism there TRP, but struggle with it myself.

      The Mighty River and other share floats will, even if Key quickly accelerates the corrosion of his own credibility, make voters feel like National remains where their financial self interest lies. Labour policy platforms will need to be spectacular to beat self interest.

      Good to see you reflecting on the importance of leadership within Labour and that they have the wrong leader to make it. Coulda-woulda-shoulda, but it’s done.

      Sincerely hope you’re right about policy formation forcing discipline upon Shearer and caucus, but after the complete let-down about direct membership input into the leadership decision (even if within the new rules), I expect to see more of the bullshit bullying tactics from Shearer’s enforcers that keeps democratic input or policy ambitions very low.

      The decline of the Maori Party is the best hope for Labour, in that it cuts coalition options from National. Mind you if the threshold is lowered to 4% the Conservatives will be there.

      We are too far from safe or strong to be optimistic. The incompetence fo the Government should see it in freefall, but still there are no Cabinet casualties to show effective Opposition. Which do you think now has a greater chance of lasting as leader until November 2014: Key or Shearer? That’s the race to the bottom to watch in terms of impact on party stakes.

    • outofbed 4.8

      The Greens
      The public get there impression of the Greens from the reporting by the media.
      I have been to a few Green conferences . 99.999% of people are well presented. I get to watch the news later only to watch clips from the conference of the two only hippy looking people attending.
      That is why the Greens are so strong on Social media they can not rely on the Msm
      It is taking a hell of a lot of work for the Hippy dope smoking misperception to change.
      And change it is, slowly yes but nevertheless its changing.
      In the last election in the most educated electorate in the country (Wellington Central) over 1 in 4 gave the Greens their party vote. Labour as we all know came third
      Expect to see the strong lessons from the very successful 2011 campaign being rolled out Nationwide in 2014.
      I would be surprised if the Greens did not get 15% nationwide in 2014 and over 30% in Wellington Cent

      The target for Labour then is a modest 35%. Will they get it ? maybe depends on the leadership I guess.

      But Labour have a problem best demonstrated by recent events, all these free hits on Keys credibility for his “economy with the truth” and Shearer can’t front because of his recent bank account fiasco

      He has to go for that 35% to happen

  5. The Roy Morgan poll provides a constant source of debating points.

    I still have my doubts about the methodology, too many young and poor people rely exclusively on cellphones over landlines for their imput to be counted properly. And it appears that most polls favour the right as the holders of landlines tend to be older and more conservative.

    But the results are relatively close albeit with a right wing bias.

    It could be that the indifference that Draco mentions dampens the bias that the polling techniques otherwise have, fewer young and poor people voting means that the bias is less pronounced.

    But this highlights why the proper strategy for Labour is a turn out strategy and not a change a few minds in the middle strategy.

    And to do this the party has to develop its activist base.

    • r0b 5.1

      I still have my doubts about the methodology, too many young and poor people rely exclusively on cellphones

      I was chatting to someone last night about politics. He was just Roy Morgan polled – on his mobile. So there is reason to believe that it is happening, dunno what percentage of their sample they contact that way though. Could be buried in their methodology section of their website somewhere.

      • McFlock 5.1.1

        interesting on the cell polling.

        Anyway, I’d much rather slightly skewed data gathered consistently over a long period, than methodologies that bounce around. Less work to compensate for it at the analysis stage 🙂

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    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    6 days ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    6 days ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    6 days ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    6 days ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    6 days ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    6 days ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    1 week ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    1 week ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Is this study legit? 5 questions to ask when reading news stories of medical research
    Hassan Vally, La Trobe University Who doesn’t want to know if drinking that second or third cup of coffee a day will improve your memory, or if sleeping too much increases your risk of a heart attack? We’re invested in staying healthy and many of us are interested in reading ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    1 week ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    1 week ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz Why do people still think climate change isn’t real? David ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • The SIS unlawfully spied on Nicky Hager
    Back in 2011, journalist Nicky Hager published Other People's Wars, an expose on NZDF's activities over the previous decade of the "war on terror". NZDF didn't like this, and especially didn't like the fact that it was base don leaks from their own. So, they had the SIS investigate him ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • October 2019 – Newsletter
    https://mailchi.mp/7d9133add053/closing-the-gap-october-2019-newsletter ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago
  • And they wonder why we think they’re environmental vandals…
    The Zero Carbon Bill is due back from select committee in two weeks, and will likely pass its final stages in November. So naturally, farmers are planning a hate-march against it. But they're not just demanding lower methane targets so they can keep on destroying the planet; they're also demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Paying the price in California
    Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Let’s Hear It For Up-Close-And-Personal, Hard-Copy Democracy!
    The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 10/10: World Day Against the Death Penalty
    Today, October 10, is the world day against the death penalty. Out of 195 UN member states, 84 still permit capital punishment. Today is the day we work to change that. This year's theme is children. Having a parent sentenced to death or executed causes long-term trauma and stigmatization which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Talking Freer Lives: a Marxist gender-critical perspective from Australia
    Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives.  So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government spin accepted by union leadership
    by Don Franks  The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Forbidden Thoughts
    by The Council of Disobedient Women   Massey Wellington Student Association had a sit-in today. Imagine a sit-in. On a campus. Against a women’s rights meeting. Did the ’60s really happen or did we fucking dream it? They gathered in the student square, an echo chamber. Sitting on soft pillows ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Much love to my loyal Ukrainian readership
    For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention.  Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Another day of bonkers GNUmours (again, sorry)
    First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:
    To avoid no deal, deliver on the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour vs working class immigrants – again!
    by Phil Duncan In 2016 the National-led government suspended the Parent Visa Category, through which migrants were able to bring their parents into New Zealand.  Since then over 5,700 people have been in immigration limbo, stuck on the visa wait list. Labour is now bringing back the scheme.  Well, sort ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women press statement: on Massey University and Feminism 2020
    The following was released yesterday (Tues, October 8) by the women’s liberation organisation Speak Up for Women. On 23 September Speak Up For Women announced that we would be holding an event at the Massey University Theaterette in Wellington. The event is called Feminism 2020. The intention of the event ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Farmers support dirty rivers
    The government is currently consulting on plans to improve freshwater quality. So naturally, farmers oppose it:South Taranaki farmers are preparing to fight proposed national freshwater changes that some fear will bankrupt them. The Government's proposed National Environment Standard on Freshwater Management, released in September, rated the Waingongoro River as one ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • No-one cares about local government
    Yesterday was the last day for (reliably) posting your vote away in local body elections. Turnouts are mostly much lower than the equivalent time last year (Palmerston North is down 2.3%), and so naturally people are pushing their online-voting snake oil again. Because the online census worked so well, lets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The political ghosts of eugenics may matter more than the genetic
    This essay, on the political legacy of the eugenics movement, by Kenan Malik was originally published in the Observer on 6 October 2019, under the headline ‘The spirit of eugenics is still with us, as immigrants know to their cost’. Birth control. Intelligence tests. Town planning. Immigration controls. It’s striking how ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • “Surplus” again
    Another year, and the government has announced another enormous government "surplus". And just like last year, its nothing of the sort. When we have people homeless and sick and hungry, when we have schools and hospitals still falling down, when we have underpaid public servants and infrastucture unmaintained or unbuilt, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Inside the Downing Street bunker
    James Forsyth at The Spectator (I know, I know) has tapped one of his contacts inside Number Ten for an insight into the Johnson administration's thinking and strategy.It is fascinating, unsettling and quite, quite mad.  Some key points:Negotiations have stalled and the Johnson administration are keen to blame the EU: ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Taking Control Of The Nation’s Story.
    Fatal Contact: With the arrival of captain James Cook in October 1769, the islands of what would become New Zealand ceased to be the preserve of Polynesian navigators and settlers and became a part of both the world’s map and the world’s history.THE MAORI NATIONALIST assault upon the historical meaning ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Are GNUs extinct?
    Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour chickens out again
    When the government was elected, it promised to lead the way on electric vehicles, and specifically to make the government vehicle fleet emissions-free where-practicable by 2025.They lied:There are 15,473 vehicles in the government fleet and only 78 are electric. When the coalition Government came into power in late 2017, the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Lyttelton Parking
    Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone.  The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Hagley Oval
    Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration   MEDIA STATEMENT       Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Police Association Annual Conference
    "Let’s start by acknowledging that it has been a huge year. " Police Association Annual Conference James Cook Grand Chancellor Hotel Wellington Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou katoa. President of the Police Association, Chris Cahill; Members of the Association and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand announces a further P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand deeply concerned at developments in north-east Syria
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand continues to have serious concerns for peace and stability in north-east Syria. “Recent reports that hundreds of ISIS-affiliated families have fled from a camp are deeply concerning from a humanitarian and security perspective”, Mr Peters says. “While we acknowledge Turkey’s domestic security ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government on high alert for stink bugs
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor is warning travelling Kiwis to be vigilant as the high-season for the crop-eating brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is under way. “We’re on high alert to stop BMSB arriving in NZ. The high season runs until April 30 and we’ve strengthened our measures to stop stink ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Better protections for students in halls of residence
    The Government is moving swiftly to change the law to improve the welfare and pastoral care of students living in university halls of residence and other tertiary hostels. Cabinet has agreed to several changes, including creating a new mandatory Code of Practice that sets out the duty of pastoral care ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New trapping guide for community and expert trappers alike
    The Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage has launched a new comprehensive trapping guide for community trappers to help them protect our native birds, plants and other wildlife, at Zealandia in Wellington today. ‘A practical guide to trapping’, has been developed by the Department of Conservation (DOC), and was launched during ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Widening Access to Contraceptives Welcomed
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter welcomes PHARMAC’s move to improve access to long-acting reversible contraception (LARCs). PHARMAC has today announced it will fund the full cost of Mirena and Jaydess for anyone seeking long term contraception, lifting previous restrictions on access to Mirena. “I welcome women having greater choices ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Major upgrade for Taranaki Base Hospital
    The Government has approved the next stage of a major redevelopment of Taranaki Base Hospital, which will deliver new and improved facilities for patients. Health Minister Dr David Clark has announced details of a $300 million dollar project to build a new East Wing at the New Plymouth hospital. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Extra support for rural families
    Extra funding will allow Rural Support Trusts to help farming families, says Minister for Rural Communities and Agriculture Damien O’Connor. “I know that rural families are worried about some of the challenges facing them, including the ongoing uncertainty created by the Mycoplasma bovis outbreak. “Those concerns sit alongside ongoing worries ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Howard Leaque Beekeeper programme graduation
    Thank you for the opportunity to be here to present certificates to the 16 graduates who have completed a beekeeping course delivered by the Howard League.  Let us start by acknowledging Auckland Prison’s Deputy Prison Director Tom Sherlock, and Acting Assistant Regional Commissioner of Corrections Northern Region Scott Walker - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Finance Minister to attend APEC meetings
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson leaves this weekend to attend the APEC Finance Ministers meeting in Santiago, Chile. Discussions between APEC Finance Ministers at the meeting will include the effects of the current global economic uncertainty, risks for APEC economies and sustainable development of the region. While at APEC Grant Robertson ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pacific languages are a source of strength, they ground us and build confidence
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says for Pacific people, language can be a source of strength. It can help ground us and give us confidence. When we speak them, our languages provide us with an immediate and intimate access to our identity and our story - and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Major boost to support disabled people in sport and recreation
    The Coalition Government has announced an action plan to improve the wellbeing of disabled New Zealanders by addressing inequalities in play, active recreation and sport. The initiative includes training to develop a workforce that understands the needs of children and young people with a range of impairments, advocacy for fit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More prefab homes to be built as red tape cut
    The construction sector is being freed up to allow more homes to be built more quickly as the Government cuts through some of the red tape of the Building Act.  “Every New Zealander deserves a warm, dry, safe home and old inefficiencies in the Building Act make building slow and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago