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Go home Roy Morgan, you’re drunk

Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, November 5th, 2016 - 149 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, john key, labour, national, Politics, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags: ,

The latest Roy Morgan poll has been released. Already the usual suspects are claiming that it is clear evidence that Labour is doomed and that Andrew Little should be replaced as soon as possible. But to my mind it shows that Roy Morgan needs to review its polling model. Because it is not working.

Below is a graph showing the changes in National and Labour vote this year. The changes are dramatic and very difficult to reconcile with what is happening in reality. The swings this year have been that large that there has to be something amiss with the polling method.

Workbook2

Whether it is the supply of data or the analysis I don’t know. But I am aware that the latest result was originally promised for last Monday, then it was Wednesday but it was not until Friday that it was released.

And the commentary is always so pitiful.

This time apparently it was the highly successful trip to India by Key that caused the upswing. But I bet if you polled the population very few would have been aware that Key had even left the country. And this obsequious piece aside, the trip has achieved exactly precisely nothing. There is no sign of a trade deal with India. And despite the extraordinary circumstances relating to the Sheepgate saga there is no free trade deal with Saudi Arabia either. Putting aside the dubious morality of the transaction the trade deal is no closer to being signed. Can we get our $4.5 million, our model farm and our sheep back?

Meanwhile if you want real life data have a look at the recent local government results. Particularly in Auckland the left was ascendant and the right was in tatters. Hopefully next year will be the same.

149 comments on “Go home Roy Morgan, you’re drunk ”

  1. Guerilla Surgeon 1

    “The changes are dramatic and very difficult to reconcile with what is happening in reality.”
    And how do you tell what is “reality” without polls? Gut feelings don’t count.

    • mickysavage 1.1

      How about the local government election results and the surge to the left that was evident. In Auckland polling sample of 400,000 or so and margin of error 0%?

      • Lanthanide 1.1.1

        Because in 2013, the left won most of the local elections, too.

        • mickysavage 1.1.1.1

          I said surge to the left. Auckland Council’s shift was quite marked.

          • Grantoc 1.1.1.1.1

            It always happens in local body elections.

            And anyway, its hardly significant given the low turn out.

            Its clutching at straws to suggest that this opinion is more reliable than the RM poll. I’m highly skeptical about RM, just as I am about your ‘surge to the left’ opinion.

            • billmurray 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Grantoc,
              endorse your comment, there is simply to much bounce in this poll for it to convince me.
              Local body trend is not political party trend.
              Polling companies in NZ in seem to be missing common trends between each other.
              Methodology seems to be unsound, perhaps from all the researchers????.

      • Simon 1.1.2

        No surge.Akl has (generally) always been left leaning. Recent LB elections demonstrate this. The problem is that the Labour party hasn’t been able to capitalise on this at general elections. Primarily because of a lack of good candidates combined with list placements that incentivises lazyness (e.g. Arden).

        • Colonial Viper 1.1.2.1

          I don’t see how a “surge to the Left” would benefit the free market/free trade oriented NZ Labour Party of today, anyhow.

          • DoublePlusGood 1.1.2.1.1

            Yes, as we see with Goff, Auckland’s local body elections were more of a surge to the centre-centreright status quo…

      • Labour_voter 1.1.3

        All I am saying is never lose hope.

    • Lanthanide 1.2

      “And how do you tell what is “reality” without polls? ”

      By looking at things happening in the real world?

      You’re acting like polls are a lightbulb in a dark room and without them we can’t tell what is happening.

      • Enough is Enough 1.2.1

        Isn’t by looking at things in the real world a bit like gut instinct? Depending on what side of the political spectrum you are will determine how you view the real world.

        A rightie will see unemployment falling, dairy rising, surplus up, construction boom.

        A leftie will see housing crisis and inequality.

        Both are looking at the same world but picking up on statistics to show they are right and the others are wrong.

      • Guerilla Surgeon 1.2.2

        Yes I am, because they are. You can’t “look at what’s happening in the real world” in politics without conducting polls. Everything else is by guess and by God. And polls can be pretty much that, but they’re more accurate than “looking”. Whatever that means.

        • Lanthanide 1.2.2.1

          And polls can be pretty much that, but they’re more accurate than “looking”. Whatever that means.

          So what you’re saying, is if you had a weather report, which said it was 45ºC outside, you’d wouldn’t go outside yourself to see that actually it was only 25ºC, you’d just blindly trust the weather report because “Everything else is by guess and by God”.

          My point, which you’re evidently too stupid to understand, is that yes, we use polls to inform us of the state of the race, but we can also check those polls against what we observe in reality, to get some guidance as to whether the polls are correct or not. I’m not saying, and nor did I say, that polls are worthless and shouldn’t be used.

          It really is NOT credible to believe that these Roy Morgan polls accurately reflect the political leanings of the electorate, and that those leanings have changed so radically month to month, without any significant events. These swings are best explained by sampling or screening error, or some other methodological error, especially when other polls have not shown this level of volatility.

          • Guerilla Surgeon 1.2.2.1.1

            I suspect that looking outside to see what the weather is doing is just a little different to trying to figure out the way people are going to vote – unless you want to do it after the election. There is no “reality” inside people’s minds. Something which you seem to be too stupid to understand.

      • whateva next? 1.2.3

        Aye, “polls” are used as a form of hypnosis now, the power of suggestion or whatever else we could call it. Politics would be far better without them and stick to campaigning on issues/values, then see what voters choose on the day.

    • Bearded Git 1.3

      @GS

      For some time now I have been doing a “smoothed RM” graph that takes a rolling average of the last 5 RM polls. This shows:

      Lab/Gr/NZF 49.8
      Nat/ACT/MP 48.6

      • Guerilla Surgeon 1.3.1

        Yes, fine. But this is looking at reality through polls. As far as finding out what’s happening in the political world goes, there is really no substitute for polls right? Smoothed or not.

  2. James 2

    National on about 48 feels right to me. I think this is more correction from last month.

    Labour on 26 might be a couple of points low – but def sub 30.

    Don’t see it changing much from what it has been since the last election – and then another 4 years for national. Yay !

    • Cinny 2.1

      Sorry James, but it’s a 3 year term not a 4 year term. Super excited about next years election, i’ve so many cunning plans, so cunning you could pin a tail on them and call them weasels.

      But seriously, Nickoff expect me, I told you we would meet again…. dun dun dunnn

      • Lanthanide 2.1.1

        There is approximately 1 year left to run in the current term, and then James is predicting National will be in government for another 3 years.

    • mickysavage 2.2

      Another trolling comment completely devoid of any data. Cant you do better than this?

      • Chuck 2.2.1

        Don’t worry MS, I am sure Andrew Little will release his own internal poll to counter the RM…

        After all a precedent has been set.

        • Leftie 2.2.1.1

          Why not counter the spin, Chuck?

          • Chuck 2.2.1.1.1

            On that basis then Leftie, Little will need to counter the “spin” yet again by releasing his latest Labour commissioned poll.

            You can be pretty sure the media are going to ask him to do so…along with the methodology use for the poll (compare apples with apples sort of thing).

            It gives Little zero wriggle room, if by chance his internal poll shows a dip as well…he is between a rock and a hard place.

            • Leftie 2.2.1.1.1.1

              You wish, and are you saying the media don’t know about UMR Chuck?

              • Chuck

                “and are you saying the media don’t know about UMR Chuck?”

                Leftie, Labour commission UMR to carry out a private poll (not public). Labour agree with UMR on the methodology and questions asked along with sample size.

                There is a reason why public polls release methodology behind the poll results.

                For all we know the UMR internal Labour poll could have a sample size of only 100 people?? or the questions asked are leading questions?? who knows??

    • Jono 2.3

      James do you know something no body else knows???? Sorry but its along time till the next election and mr Morgan will be on side with the left. i think you are a bit premature with your predictions…things are changing.

      • Leftie 2.3.1

        Gary Morgan is suffering from cyclops syndrome and is definitely showing how right wing he is in his commentary.

    • Leftie 2.4

      James. Since the last election, National lost the safe Northland seat, John key got trounced in his vanity flag fiasco, and is facing public ire over the housing crisis, homelessness and poverty.

  3. It could mean that there’s a significant number of voters who are unsure to support so poll support is fluid.

    This Roy Morgan result is fairly mid-range, so what’s the problem with this? Their last poll could have been an outlier, or it could reflect weak and/or volatile support.

    Without other polls covering a similar period (10-23 October) dismissing this result as not ‘real life data’ is baseless. The local body result is a poor comparison.

    In September Andrew Little called a Colmar poll with Labour on a similar 26% as ‘bogus’.

    • mickysavage 3.1

      The RM bounces around way more than any of the other polls. My post is to suggest that it needs to review how it conducts polls. These sorts of shifts do not happen in non election years unless there are unusual circumstances.

      • Pete George 3.1.1

        But how do you know whether the bouncing is due to how they conduct their polls versus how volatile the electorate is?

        I think there may be unusual circumstances – voters getting tired of National but recognise some fairly good economic indicators, voters not yet convinced that Andrew Little is the answer as an alternative, voters are especially cautious of Little+Turei+Shaw and perhaps +Peters.

        Rejigging Roy Morgan won’t change public perceptions of what’s happening here in politics and in the country in general.

        Complaining about 25-35% polling is unproductive. You should at least be be striving for complaining about 35-45%. Acknowledging disappointing pointers and being positive would be better.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 3.1.1.1

          🙄

          Not fucking your pet goat would be a start.

          • Pete George 3.1.1.1.1

            Rules: “What we’re not prepared to accept are pointless personal attacks, or tone or language that has the effect of excluding others. We are intolerant of people starting or continuing flamewars where there is little discussion or debate.”

            About

            • One Anonymous Bloke 3.1.1.1.1.1

              Step away from the goat and pull your pants up.

              It’s a metaphor for your relentless weasel negativity and rank nauseating hypocrisy.

              [I don’t care what it’s a metaphor for, enough with the sexual assault comments. And ffs, make some actual political arguments or someone is going to ban you again. I know you see yourself as the frontline rapid attack dog against the RW trolls, but when you start scaring away the cats who are here for the debate (or to play with the mouse), or when you are leaving your dogshit lying around, then there is a problem. You are quite capable of ripping apart RW arguments, so how about you put some effort in. Animal metaphor day – weka]

              • Rules: “What we’re not prepared to accept are pointless personal attacks, or tone or language that has the effect of excluding others. We are intolerant of people starting or continuing flamewars where there is little discussion or debate.”

                About

                [did you see the moderator warning to you yesterday? By all means engage in escalating a fight with OAB (or anyone) and see how I feel about wasting moderator time – weka]

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  Acknowledging disappointing blog readers and being more positive would be much better for you.

                  [you can also take the rest of the day off. – weka]

                • Weka – I saw your ‘moderator warning’ and responded. So you are blaming me for “escalating a fight” because I pointed out the site rules you asked me to check out yesterday?

                  Are you suggesting that if attacked here people should do nothing about it?

                  [Give it a rest, Pete. You’ve been around long enough to know you’re heading rapidly toward self martyrdom. No more, please. TRP]

                  [no Pete, I’m saying don’t escalate esp in ways that require moderators to spend their time sorting it out. If you don’t know what that means then err on the side of caution. You can now take the rest of the day off – weka]

          • Enough is Enough 3.1.1.1.2

            Pull your head in OAB or take it to Whaleoil at least

          • GMan 3.1.1.1.3

            Funny.

        • DeadSmurf 3.1.1.2

          I could accept the RM being this volatile if the results were reflected in other polls.

          There aren’t enough regular political polls in NZ to draw much of a conclusion from them. It is lazy to do your analysis from a poll every couple of months and let that shape your narrative.

          Many people don’t know who the leaders of the Greens, Labour or the deputy PM even are – most people are not political nerds.

          The headline economic does not tell the whole story as GDP is heavily influenced by migration and the Household Labour Force Survey has just had the methodology reworked. Look at per capita economic and social data, it is not flash at all.

        • Stuart Munro 3.1.1.3

          Volatility in the 10% range isn’t showing in other polls.

          Frankly this level of volatility renders a poll practically worthless – if Gnat support varies by 10% month on month not much can be said about it with confidence.

          It’s hardly surprising of course that Gnat support would be volatile given their lousy performance indicators. But when you get unusual results from a statistical process the probability of statistical process error is high enough that you’d better check it.

          Roy Morgan is reaching the point where they might do better reading chicken entrails.

      • Takere 3.1.2

        I’m almost pretty certain that RM uplift/replicate their data & collection from Curia’s polling? They are and have been almost identical for the last 3 polls conducted by RM.
        Have being emailing the lead analyst at RM, Michelle Irvine heaps to get a response to how they ackshully conduct their polling and select numbers to call, their polling tree ?
        Usual tricks include, time of day, age, gender, political bias, conducting a survey first by calling a person in advance of the poll to be conducted to screen them out/in for “eligibility” to participate in the up and coming poll. This creates another “tree” which then can be classified in the “Tree” log(s) as a new tree to be quantified at a later date.

        Anybody have Farrar’s latest poll? Oh fuck me. Here it is. http://www.curia.co.nz/

        RM outsourcing polling to Curia or visa-versa?

        • Pete George 3.1.2.1

          That’s Farrar’s “Public Poll Average”. If you check the methodology:

          The older a poll is, the less weighting it has. The age of the poll is calculated as the difference between today’s date and the last day the poll was conducted mid-point of the dates the poll was conducted over. If this gap is one week or less, then the weighting is 100%. Once a poll is more than 38 days old the weighting is 0%, and between 8 and 38 days inclusive it declines proportionally every day.
          So if Roy Morgan is the only poll in the last 38 days then it will equal the average (that’s what happens when you divide by 1).

          This is the end result of very few polls done now in New Zealand. Colmar Brunton’s last poll was in September.

          • Takere 3.1.2.1.1

            PG.- Yep. All that said and done I’ve read the methodology BS line a million times. However, the reality is somewhat different. Why do I know this you may ask? Fair enough, I’ll tell you. I’ve unionised these sites and hear directly from the staff how results get screwed with.
            Need I say anymore. No, and I shouldn’t and I won’t.

            • dukeofurl 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Thats for that, appreciate your candour.

            • Chuck 3.1.2.1.1.2

              “Why do I know this you may ask? Fair enough, I’ll tell you. I’ve unionised these sites and hear directly from the staff how results get screwed with.”

              Then it follows that privately commissioned polls are also screwed with, especially if the polling company wants to kept the client happy.

        • Bearded Git 3.1.2.2

          Those numbers on Farrar’s site are simply the RM latest poll and not a poll of polls.

        • Leftie 3.1.2.3

          Thank you Takere +1

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.3

        The RM bounces around way more than any of the other polls. My post is to suggest that it needs to review how it conducts polls.

        The thing to find out is whether or not RM has changed it poll methodology, staffing or resourcing in the last few months.

        It is not like RM is new to doing these polls. If nothing substantial has changed in their internal processes to explain the added volatility of the last few months, other questions should be asked.

        A more unpredictable electorate mood is not necessarily off the table.

        • Takere 3.1.3.1

          Yeah. It’s all the above 100%

        • Olwyn 3.1.3.2

          About 18 months ago (from memory) RM began adding editorial comment with a distinct rightward slant (like mention of the ‘successful’ trip to India, which also handily coincides with an upcoming bi-election in an area with a large Indian population). Their sample sizes seem to be getting smaller, and this result’s being delayed to coincide with the LP conference also looks fishy.

          In noting this, I am not speaking as a cheerleader – I think Labour need to cover some serious ground between now and the election if they are to convince. And I think that Cunliffe’s decision not to stand again will work to their detriment unless they are quick to show that it is not merely a case of the careerists and right-wingers playing the long game, winning, getting back to BAU and calling that ‘harmony’.

          To sum up, I no longer trust Roy Morgan, but if this poll works as a wake-up call to Labour, then good show. Shouting “This is a government out of touch” (also being used by the ALP) only works if you are seen to be in touch yourself.

          • Colonial Viper 3.1.3.2.1

            Just spoke to an ordinary joe blow voter this morning who summed up the discussion as – Kiwis prefer the devil they know, unless there’s a major.

          • Colonial Viper 3.1.3.2.2

            To sum up, I no longer trust Roy Morgan, but if this poll works as a wake-up call to Labour, then good show.

            Like last time, I think that Labour will garner solace from their internal polling which probably still shows them in a very competitive position with National.

            • Olwyn 3.1.3.2.2.1

              Well the wake-up call could apply to seeking a way past polls being used to manipulate perceptions rather than the reliability of their actual results. The problem for the past 8 years has been, in my opinion, that much of the Labour caucus seeks the approval of these opinion manipulators rather than the tools for getting past them. So for 8 years we have followed a little waltz that goes hope-dashed-dashed, hope-dashed-dashed, since very little that brings hope to a Labour constituency meets their approval.

            • Takere 3.1.3.2.2.2

              Found this on Twitter today;

              Matthew Hooton ‏@MatthewHootonNZ Retweeted Hemant Parikh
              Latest @NZLabour polls are:
              Nat 45
              Lab 30
              Gre 12
              NZF 11
              #nzpol

              this is where I think the numbers sit. But as we all know. Polling day is polling day….

              • Colonial Viper

                And the key question as always: which way will Winston swing, and what will it be which pulls him that way.

                • Takere

                  All I can say about that. I’m sure the only person in the country who has the ability to do that….persuade Winston to consider some kind of deal is McCarten. Maybe this is why he’s relocated and a free agent to talk to whomever he wants??

      • Red 3.1.4

        Grasping mickey

      • The Baron 3.1.5

        But but but GREGGLES! You yourself have been the first to crow that the RM polls are gospel!

        Oh hold on – you only do that when they say Labour is up, based on your mood of the “west”. Lol. Don’t force me to trawl the archives here to prove that Greggie. Time and time again I’ve seen right here that RM is the best for frequency; their polling methods are the best etc etc.

        I suspect you used to crow that because RM is statistically shown to have a slight left bias.

        Basically, your analysis is that any poll that doesn’t show Labour ascendant is flawed. And here you are now flip flopping.

        Sure sure provide links – can’t be fucked lol but I do love proving how much of an inconsistent numpty you are Presland.

        [The only numpty on display here is you. Repeatedly using a RL name, abusing an author. See you next year. TRP]

  4. Cinny 4

    Wondering what happened in October for the zig zags? Up, down, up, down, up.

    No doubt this poll will be getting some media coverage unlike the last RM Poll when Labour was way up and Nat’s took a dive. Funny old thing the media.

    As any party leader says when the polls aren’t agreeable to them at the time… the only poll that matters is the one on election day.

    • Katipo 4.1

      Yup, and if we look at the last election and the “collapse” of the left, what is the reality know? A National party in decline going from 61 to now 60seats with their 3 coalition partners having only 4seats between them, the biggest of which is bleeding numbers for doing so.

  5. Adrian 5

    God forbid that Labour actually distance themselves from their disastrous neo liberal ideology since ’84, turn back left and give this country a needed alternative to National, other than a softer version of National, which is all Labour represent today.
    Who knows they might even win an election…..

  6. Tory 6

    Ah, Mickey “the prediction chicken”. Opinion on this site about polls is generally well of the mark especially if Labour is seen in a bad light, see the last election:

    The latest polls

    But at the end of the day all you really have is hope so keep reading the tea leaves, spinning the “dirty politics” narriative , blaming Crosby Textor, hey maybe even KDC could manage another moment of “bullshit”, the planets could align and you wake up smelling the roses.

    Or just maybe people realise Little is just a washed up ex Union official, with little caucus support leading a party that is full of dinosaurs, void of direction and ideas. Labour is finished and Morgans new party may well be a final nail in the coffin.

    • Enough is Enough 6.1

      That link is very telling indeed

    • Simon 6.2

      Agree. I expect labour to do worse than last election. Their failure to make any effective change and the persistance of their extremely lackluster cabinet means that a % of Labour voters who ‘just voted labour because that’s what you do’ will finally walk away.I put myself in this camp.

      It’s a shame that Labour has let down their constituents so fully, but that’s all you can expect from a collective of protectionist career politicians.

      • Enough is Enough 6.2.1

        I tend to agree with you Simon. It seem that everytime there is a poll (as evidenced in the link) the same culprits go to great length to explain how the polls are wrong, the methodology is wrong, and the left is actually surging.

        9 years of this head in the sand bullshit is depressing.

        I am desperate for the left to win but everytime I see this I cringe and ready myself for more years of Tory scum rule.

      • Adrian Thornton 6.2.2

        @Simon, agreed, imagine a real left progressive leader/party in NZ, inspiring and mobilizing citizens in the way Corban and sanders have shown there is a very real appetite for.
        Imagine kiwis being passionate about the political process instead of sport for change, but no, what have we got in Labour…. “Winning Together” sounds like corney add spin from 15 years ago.

        • Simon 6.2.2.1

          I agree, but for that to happen much of the party machinery will have to be dismantled so will never happen.

    • Cinny 6.3

      Interesting how you talk down the leader of Labour rather than talking up the outgoing PM.

      I think you need to work on your anger issues Tory, you seem very angry, often anger is a result of not being able to communicate effectively, JS.

  7. Simon 7

    What is the sample size and whatvwas the question? Impossible to make any inference as to the truth of this without these details.

    • Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors in October 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

      Margin of error for a sample size of 1000:
      40-60%: 3.2
      25 or 75%: 2.7
      10 or 90%: 1.9
      5 or 95%: 1.4
      – those will be slightly higher for this poll.

      http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7039-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2016-201611041621

      • dukeofurl 7.1.1

        Thats margin of error if your polled group matches exactly the voting population profile.

        For lost of reasons the MoE can be up to 7%

        When You Hear the Margin of Error Is Plus or Minus 3 Percent, Think 7 Instead
        http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/upshot/when-you-hear-the-margin-of-error-is-plus-or-minus-3-percent-think-7-instead.html

        “But the real-world margin of error of election polls is not three percentage points. It is about twice as big.”

        Thats for the ideal 1000 people. RM and others in NZ are normally less

        “But the stated margin of error misses other important forms of error.
        1)Frame error occurs when there is a mismatch between the people who are possibly included in the poll (the sampling frame) and the true target population.

        2)And then there is nonresponse error, when the likelihood of responding to a survey is systematically related to how one would have answered the survey.

        3)Finally, there is error in the analysis phase. In one example, as Nate Cohn showed in an Upshot article, four pollsters arrived at different estimates even when starting from the same raw polling data.

        So PG you can throw away your 20 year old high school stats class theories and move into the 21st century. There are 4 margins of error, you are only counting one.

    • Enough is Enough 7.2

      Poll Size: 873 of whom 816 have a party preference

      Undecideds: 6.5%

      Dates: early October to 23 October 2016

      Party Support
      •National 48.0% (+6.5%)
      •Labour 26.5% (-7.0%)
      •Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
      •NZ First 10.0% (+1.5%)
      •Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
      •United Future 0.0% (nc)
      •ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
      •Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
      •Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

      • dukeofurl 7.2.1

        Whats the age groups of those that spend 30 min on the phone.

        What are the weightings from the raw data ?

  8. Sanctuary 8

    “…And this obsequious piece aside, …”

    Embedded weak minded NZ journalist acting as government cheerleader after having head turned by being invited on the big shiny VIP jet to mix with celebrity PM. Who would have thought?

    The TVNZ journo also covered himself in glory by demanding from the runway in Queensland that the tazpayer cough up for new air force transport jets cos, you know, it is just so AWFUL for the blessed insiders to be left awkwardly shuffling on the wrong side of the velvet rope of VIP privilege while waiting for the maitre’d to get back.

  9. mauī 9

    Looks like its gone haywire. I wont be trusting it unless it shows some consistency over 4 months or so. You can’t explain the wild explain swings so you have to treat it with a fair amount of contempt for now.

  10. jcuknz 10

    I knew Key had gone to India because the media told us his plane broke down, or a bit of it. Then of course there were ‘Bennett as PM’ stories

  11. Incognito 11

    But I am aware that the latest result was originally promised for last Monday, then it was Wednesday but it was not until Friday that it was released.

    Releasing it a day before the NZLP Conference does heighten its effect, don’t you agree?

    Polls are supposed to inform people, etc., but they have become tools of manipulation in the hands of spin doctors and so-called ‘party strategists’.

    • dukeofurl 11.1

      The Polling companies are in the business of selling dreams. No different to those selling anti aging creams

      While they arent completely bogus, they ‘sell’ the idea that we can tell you exactly what your customers are thinking.

      For most face creams 10-15% leeway would be fine, but for political polls they are stuck in the their own ‘dream’ of the 3.5% or so margin or error and they dare not tell the truth, the wrinkles are bigger than you think.

    • Leftie 11.2

      Exactly right Incognito.

  12. Keith 12

    I think we really over estimate Nationals plans too frequently and think of them as ambitious. They are not.

    A free trade deal with India was probably utterly irrelevant in this scheme but accessing that massive pool of super cheap exploitable labour, well there’s a trophy to put on display in the rich mans club, one to be proud of.

    If Key could stitch together the barest excuse of a so called “Free trade deal” that includes essentially no free trade but does include the obligatory easy access travel visa’s between our two friendly countries National could hide behind that as an excuse to flood NZ with cheap labour. Not our fault, we have this amazing “free trade deal” to abide by. By the time someone works out its not free trade at all, time will have moved on.

    Growth could continue to be fueled by this poor quality sugar high version of it and Nationals donors and its millionaires would be happy as slave owners back in the day. As for all those New Zealand born employees hoping for better wages and conditions or somewhere to live, well they can piss off, who cares!

    • dukeofurl 12.1

      I agree. We dropped most tariffs years ago-unilaterally so we have nothing to bargain with, except access to our labour market.

      • Takere 12.1.1

        What really happened is that the tariffs were dropped but subsidies were put in place.
        Local government, council discounts to entice businesses to set up
        Training & education subsidies
        Employment subsidies
        Tax relief. Corporate tax take less than 20% of Income tax take
        Corporates “game” the tax system & use the use of money as a cheap loan facility for debt payment
        Student loans instead of on-the-job-training and education
        $1.6b in rental subsidies
        About $7.5b in direct subsidies annually as well as multi-billion dollar contracts to foreign coporates to pay shareholders first then build third rate infrastructure at exorbitant prices.
        For eg. UltraFastBB. $1.6b 2012. $700m payed out to shareholders in first 6 months of contract.
        Company went back to Dildo Joyce and got an additional $900m.
        A subsidy for privately own comm’s companies to build a network they produce revenue from who then charge the tax payers who’ve payed for th build again to use the internet & network?? – WTF!

        Cronyism. Time to fuck them off.

    • Red Hand 12.2

      Indian immigration to work for a pittance has happened before. There were thousands of Indentured Indian workers in the Caribbean, Natal, Fiji, Kenya and Uganda. I have worked with three of their descendants (Trinidadian, Fijian and South African) doing jobs where no suitable New Zealand applicants applied.

    • Well Fed Weta 12.3

      That’s an overly negative view of FTA’s. Free trade agreements are generally beneficial to NZ if they are well negotiated. Our FTA with China has had good results for NZ exporters, and I can personally attest to how it has opened doors that were previously closed. Yes these agreements can lead to job losses, but we have to think smarter and consider how we turn these into job ‘switches’, where our export businesses employ more as demand for their products grows.

      India is one of the largest and fastest growing economies in the world. As a trading economy it makes sense to be working toward an FTA with India, particularly if the TPP collapses. So far we have been negotiating since 2010. The China FTA took almost 5 years to negotiate; an India FTA will be worth the wait.

      • save nz 12.3.1

        Free trade agreements are generally beneficial to NZ if they are well negotiated.

        This bunch of muppets in government have put us billions in debt and are corrupt to boot. The bankrupted farmers don’t seem to be doing well but China’s Shanghai Pengxin buying them cheap is creaming it.

      • Richard Rawshark 12.3.2

        well fed weta bait= shit stirring Go away.

      • Richard Rawshark 12.3.3

        Free trade good, only for businesses who export their manufacturing to china then import the good back at a tenth of the manufacturing costs of the nation.

        It amazes me people who think FTA’s are good, logically explain the beneifits of free trade between a cheap labour country like china and india with NZ?

        I really am interested in ripping it to shreds

        In the IT industry alone Taiwan lost almost all manufacturing to China.. Gigabyte, Foxconn apple etc all made in china.

        So where are those employee’s now.?

        and with the FTA you get no import tariffs etc.

        jeez someone explain how this is good for western countries with higher costs of living than india and asia. please.

        • Well Fed Weta 12.3.3.1

          Hi Richard. Again I feel that is an overly negative assessment. Yes FTA’s cause disruption, but they do so for the wider benefit of the country. They create jobs in export and downstream industries, they deliver cheaper and a wider selection of products to NZ. FTA’s have resulted in a greater competitive edge to NZ industry. NZ has a higher employment than at any time in our history, and higher value export earnings than at any time in our history.

          Please don’t take that to mean I’m justifying everything done in the name of trade, becasue I’m not. But to rail against well negotiated FTA’s (such as the China FTA) is to bury your head in the sand.

          • Richard Rawshark 12.3.3.1.1

            You say they create jobs in downstream industries, which i wonder do you refer?

            Here’s my thoughts FTA’s probably benefit the most the country with the cheaper standard of living costs for it work force. As then business moves there.

            The detriment occurs to the country with the higher costs of living as manufacturing is decimated to these other nations.

            The knock on effect of a lower paid workforce is they care less about there job quality they are struggling more than we are. Hence the quality of the manufactured good declines severely.

            It seems to benefit only business, and very detrimental to one nation over the other.

            Now depending on the products the wealthy country has may help them adjust, an example is the decline in manufacturing means we put more effort into improving dairy etc, and those markets have opened up there for us, to some extent

            The case for FTA’s being good for NZ in particular is out still in my mind.., maybe for nations with a wide list of exportable products
            I don’t think NZ so much.

            • Well Fed Weta 12.3.3.1.1.1

              There always pro’s and con’s to any deal, Richard. I work in a business that supplies (amongst others) the apparel industry. Over the past 30 years I have seen the apparel industry in NZ and Australia decimated by imports, but at the same time I have seen many new industries develop.

              Tourism, International Education, Primary Products, High Tech Products, Creative Arts, are just some industries that have developed and/or burgeoned as a result of NZ’s approach to trade.

              The China FTA has resulted in our exports to China trebling, and our trade deficit with China reducing significantly. The NZ Taiwan FTA is on a similar trajectory.

              With a small population, and one of the best business environments in the world, NZ is easily a net beneficiary of trade deals, which has been recognised by successive governments for decades.

              • Richard Rawshark

                You definitely know the effects, I also worked in a textile manufacturing company in Glenfield in the 80’s it died, almost overnight. the textile industry that is.

                Sorry mate that would have been horrible Sincere sympathy those bastards…

                I agree on the new industries to some extent but exports, down, imports up, never good I would assume, and how many years did it take to recover?

                Every time we open up a new FTA, I feel without real gutsy analysis to pro’s and cons, and not a political stunt to say HEY, we did something great with little analysis then I would be all for it.

                But it’s gotten to a point where these markets are suspect in their benefits.

                India I am very concerned about, they have a large agricultural farming sector, they definitely do not want our products in their market..

                USA already, causing problems on that FTA..

                Both chased by National and seriously i’m not sure they are doing it for the correct reasons this time.

                China, pretty good market.. damage was already done to our textile industry so really less of an issue then. Ethically, we should never have signed until organ harvesting etc human rights issues, were addresses, now we cannot use anything to instigate change.

                So your FTA’s to me are not just as simple as better trade, or opening doors, I think there is far more to weigh up.

                I know using trade with china to instigate change was a joke with our small nation, just a principle thing to me.

                • Well Fed Weta

                  Fair enough, I certainly understand the ethics arguments, but can I put a slightly different perspective on it please. I do a lot of business throughout Asia, China particularly. I have set very high ethical standards for our business (we only employ reputable firms for start-ups and ongoing accounting and legal support etc), but I cringe at what some of our foreign competition do. Nevertheless, can we not have a say from ‘inside the tent’ on these human rights and other concerns? Do we not develop at least some moral authority by being around the table, rather than not?

                  I also believe we do more good by trading with smaller nations than by giving aid.

                  • Richard Rawshark

                    Yes WFW, agree with your points too, it’s a hard one to judge and I don’t have the depth of diplomacy knowledge to have the best answer, I trust they did think that too, or perhaps Helen just wanted an FTA with China as a tool, political internal and externally to pressure the USA to open it’s doors more. There was a lot going on..

                    My actual dislike and or better word, distrust of FTA’s stems from seeing first hand great blokes like you who employed people and helped their communities get wiped out through the influx of cheap shoddy goods.

                    I saw a once employed country have suddenly a big employment issue.

                    and there was a time a youth could get the apprentiships and career he wanted.., it’s gone.., completely gone.

                    We are dealing with so many social issues now, I cannot fathom how Douglas and that lot can sleep at night.

                    same in the UK, walk out school straight into an apprentiship.

                    Now masses of unemployment and social problems

                    hence the cost is too high IMHO.

    • Richard Rawshark 12.4

      Yep greedy workers are being replaced by cheap labour. need I say more.

  13. Roger M 13

    Waaaaaah waaaaaah waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!!!

    Somebody call a wambulance! Mean poll say bad things so mean poll must be wrong!

    And local polítics ain’t government.

    • adam 13.1

      “And local polítics ain’t government.’

      Are you a idiot ( the original Greek usage) or are you that ignorant?

      Because Roger M, that is a hell of a bold anti-democratic statement to make.

      You part of the alt-right as well?

  14. Chooky 14

    …they should have kept on David Cunliffe as leader ….and they should oppose the SPY BILL…

    call me a negative Chook…but why would anyone vote Labour?

    ….only those who vote Labour out of unthinking habit…and I know a few of those

    • Leftie 14.1

      Political reality: You can’t change the government without Labour.

      • Chooky 14.1.1

        agreed…but you do have other options on the ‘Left’ to vote for

        Question: When is Left not Left?

        Answer : When it is Labour supporting jonkey Nactional…eg. on the SPY on New Zealanders BILL

        …at least David Cunliffe had a moral compass

  15. Richard Rawshark 15

    My Opinion, Polls are full of it, there is not a poll going anytime you could call accurate at all. The only time they fall in line with actually what the correct levels are is by sheer fluke.

    I say this because even at 1000 people polled it’s far far to low to get a proper result.

    Most people I know who vote labour come from a demographic that don’t have time for stupid pollsters. Don’t have a landline, certainly haven’t got time to answer fucking pollers on the cells.

    voting age groups, vote differently, those 18-25 vote on way those 25-35 another so on, it’s like splitting 100 pollsters into a quarters, so you have to increase the sample size..

    So who do they poll.

    People who own landlines or mobiles.. hmmmmm

    in 50 years never had a poller call me..who do they poll..

    It’s garbage at one time when pollers could rely on most of the population having a land line polls worked well.

    These days with internet, Skype, VOIP etc there are masses more communication lines than land or mobile phones. they are just picking results from a small demographic.

    • The Real Matthew 15.1

      The last election proved your theory right.

      Polls underestimated support for National.

      • Richard Rawshark 15.1.1

        Listen up Hooten, your a penis, now fark orf.

        as in, that line, bait for fools, you actually are so full of your own intellectual superiority you think you’ll pop along say something to the dumb lefties and they will bite. Because you think we are dumb, stereotypes, drowning in a pool of our combined brain cells.

        me I know what a judgemental narrow minded dumb bastard you are for thinking that way.. now fark orf again.

        [Afaik The Real Matthew isn’t Matthew Hooton, he’s a long time commenter on TS. And even if he was, it’s against the site rules to out someone using a pseudonym. Dial back the abuse as well please – weka]

        • Richard Rawshark 15.1.1.1

          Will do Weka ty for the heads up, I did think that was Hooten joining the fray, been a day of RW bloggers all of a sudden and I made an incorrect assumption.

          My appologies the real mathew. please totally ignore my post if you can.

      • Richard Rawshark 15.1.2

        Show me the proof Hooten of the polls being wrong about National? Last election.

        How anyone can assume anything from the cluster fuck that was the last election dumbfounds me but apparently you “real mark Hooten” seem to have.

      • Leftie 15.1.3

        The Real Matthew. But for most of the year weren’t National riding high in the polls?

  16. Richard Rawshark 16

    Must have been glorious for those who spend their lives hoping for days when they can.., stick the boot in. Labour AGM.., poll comes out showing bad poling for labour by right wing pollers..

    Lets look at what the poll said just before last years AGM the one before oh a pattern you say.

    Seriously haven’t even looked but willing to put a tenner on it.. pattern bad poll for labour just before labour does something they pre announce.., like AGM’s! NO not the pollers they are honest … yeah right.

    Seriously you RW fuckwits..just fuck off.

    • chris73 16.1

      I shall not!

    • Richard McGrath 16.2

      I thought there was moderation on this discussion group to counter people like RR who is sounding more unhinged by the day. The profanities and personal abuse are a pointer toward a lack of substance in your argument, RR.

  17. Richard Rawshark 17

    Obviously spurious poll comes out and woe is me all the labour supporters here start baying for littles job.

    Poller job done ..tick

    Firstly, success comes from failure, ask Helen. You are fucking dreaming if you think in one term Little can suss it all out..was same with DC, DS, and PG, all gone no ability to let them figure it all out from wins and losses.

    The expectations are to high lower them. For me I want a steady hand I can see will improve over time or can work out what works and what doesn’t. If labour lost this election Robertson and Arden will make a bid for leadership we all be back at square one, and the lessons Little will have learned will be wasted.

    A lot of us want radical change back to old Labour, we also have to compromise, things HAVE changed the owner operator self employed is huge, they are small Businesses.

    We have to find the correct balance or we will still lose.

    I’m, calling for calm..ignore the poll anything that swung that wildly..is erroneous.., ignore the RW stirrers that was a gift from heaven and they will embroil you in stupid arguements that make you want to kill them,.,, slowly over a roasting hot fire while poking their.. cough anyways..

    Settle people., The world didn’t end, it was only an RM poll of which the last one was shown to be fucked..

    We haven’t gotten onto the election cycle yet there is a year to go..

  18. fisiani 18

    My assumption is that the Roy Morgan poll is clearly the most volatile poll but seems to be fairly close to the mark heading into summer. Nowt is going to change minds over summer barbecues and the talk there over a few beers will generally be about the booming economy, rising wages and the great value of the house that they bought in 1990 for $300,000 and is now worth $1,000,000. The mortgage is all paid off and they will praise the stewardship of Sir Bill English who rescued NZ from the wreck he inherited and has brought them relative affluence.
    The migrant community are generally hard workers and keen to see the economy keep growing. They have learned in 2014 and 2011 and 2008 that a vote for Labour is simply wasted. The current poll of 48% for National is just the 2016 peak. It could well be over 50% by November next year.
    Factor in the wonderful economic results that will take place in 2017 as the NZ economy surges ahead and I see no reason why voters would throw a spanner in the works by voting for change and inexperience. By 2020 there will probably not be a single opposition MP that has been in Cabinet.

    • Richard Rawshark 18.1

      Lol yada yada this poll is very topsy turvey but since it clearly shows national winning, this one of all you should take seriously when I make fun of your bad polling.

      mopping piss off floor yet again today because I died laughing and this is a ghost writer.

      • Barfly 18.1.1

        No worries Fisiani is just a sick evil little prick whom I am so sorely tempted to place a curse upon.

  19. save nz 19

    Sounds like a rouge poll. But with Phil Goff making headlines in Auckland for getting rid of council elected candidates at AT like Mike Lee, and wanting to blow a billion on a sports stadium while reducing library services…

    Labour went up in the polls when Goff said he was leaving Labour, now with him in Auckland and in the limelight Labour are plummeting. If Auckland is important they now have a big problem with Goff who is ex Labour with ACT ideology.

    The media blames everything on Labour and they have cleverly put in a new media like Spinoff that indoctrinates old media messages but for younger people… so it’s hate for Labour all around. Labour need to get on it’s own social media and interact on line with the public more. Don’t rely on any media to do them any favours.

    If Labour want to win, they have to unite with others and work with groups disenfranchised with National policy. (Charities, public sector workers, families, homeowners with increasing costs, teachers, oldies, greenies, etc).

    Little is a lot more honest than Key and they should push that anti corruption anti sales, anti TPP and more patriotic edge. Key would sell NZ out for some magic beans and a golf game and even the National supporters know it. I

    ‘d like to see Labour concentrate on kids in their campaigns and what sort of future they should have under Labour… because I certainly don’t want them to look forward to a robotic, commercialised education followed by a huge student debt, followed by a minimum wage job or no wages… increasingly high daily costs for electricity and poor quality water… Look at some examples of the US and what has happened there, does NZ want to go down that road by voting in National again?

    • Richard Rawshark 19.1

      Nothing that Goff so far has done I thought was bad.. he’s clued up far more than stupid Len was so if he acted that way there would be reasons.

      If your thinking it caused the drop in polling, i’d suggest the poll is not reflective of the true changes yes it may have but not THAT much..

      I am of the opinion it’s just the incessant need to downplay the working party. Dirty politics or rogue poll or just pollings become too inaccurate with technology changes.

      Not the first rogue poll, won’t be last.

      They would be better street canvasing honestly.

    • James 19.2

      By god – how many polls have been denounced as rouge by the wise minds at the standard? It muct be in the 00’s now.

      Perhaps the polls (or trends of polls) is right and labour are just stuck in the mid to high 20’s

  20. Thinkerr 20

    1. I do wonder what effect the trend for people giving up landlines has on these polls. Landlines are something of an option, now, and maybe there is a disproportionate chance of Roy Morgan hitting a wealthy right-winger when calling.

    2. I think the Rosill by-election will be a good indicator of where things sit.

    3. However, winning the next, or any, election depends on who can pull the swinging voters over to their side. IMHO, swinging voters vote for the side that offers the best deal for them, personally (otherwise they would have more of a philosophic stand). And, I just don’t see the left offering up a reason for the swinging voters to move left, yet. Hence, the polls move left when the government does something surprising or cavalier, but then the polls move back.

  21. fisiani 21

    I always laugh when posters here talk about a rouge poll. Is it bright red or covered in makeup? I suppose they cannot spell rogue.

    • fender 21.1

      🙄

      About as funny as those RWNJ’s who can’t even navigate the reply button to berate the correct spelling mistake maker.

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