Gone

Written By: - Date published: 4:03 pm, June 7th, 2013 - 241 comments
Categories: election 2014, john key, united future - Tags: , ,

Having resigned as Minister, how long before we see a by-election in Ohariu as Peter Dunne’s credibility keeps dripping away? And will we see an early election?

241 comments on “Gone”

  1. He looked extraordinarily sad in Parliament yesterday. I guess to continue in awful pun mode he could see all the chickens coming home to roost.

  2. the pigman 2

    Is there a connection between this and the deregistration kerfuffle? Maybe tin foil hat stuff, but I’m curious..

  3. Enough is Enough 3

    Snap Election?

    Key is a gambling man. Will he roll the die now while he still has a starter’s chance rather than wait 15 months when he will loose in a landslide.

    Big smile on my face. If I was gambling man I would put a lazy fiver on Rusell been Minister of Finance by Christmas…..yay great things are on the way.

    • burt 3.1

      I hope so…

    • Lanthanide 3.2

      There’s no need for a snap election. Even if Dunne leaves Parliament, the government has got 63 votes for Confidence and Supply, courtesy of the Maori Party.

      • Enough is Enough 3.2.1

        There is a political need.

        He has a chance of victory now. He won’t in 12 months.

        • Lanthanide 3.2.1.1

          Government’s that call snap elections are generally punished.

          • TruthSeeker 3.2.1.1.1

            There have been three snap elections since WWII in New Zealand. Two of them (1951 and 2002) resulted in the government increasing its majority. Muldoon was punished in ’84 because of the circumstances of that decision and because his time was up anyway.

            • lanthanide 3.2.1.1.1.1

              2002 was an early election, not a snap election. The main distinctions being that 2002 was an election year anyway, and it was only held a few months early. Although the alliance had fractured, the government was still in power – which is not what is being suggested in this thread, that without Dunne National will not be able to progress their right agenda.

      • mikesh 3.2.2

        If Dunne leaves parliament and the bye election is won by Lbour, National will actually have only 59 seats without the Maori party. However it is difficult to predict who would win such a bye election.

        • Watching 3.2.2.1

          I not sure if this is how a by-election works

          So Labour wins Ohariu? – what happens
          – doesn’t National get an extra list seat to retain their 47% vote
          – and would Labour lose a list seat if they replaced Dunne or does parliament go from 121 to 122 seats .

          Could someone whose into the rules care to clarify

          • Anita 3.2.2.1.1

            Proportionality is calculated when the final vote count of the general election is completed, it is not recalculated or reassessed during the parliamentary term.

            So if there was a by-election in Ōhariu in which a candidate beat Dunne that candidate’s party would gain a seat, there would be no reallocation of list seats.

            Incidentally, if Labour were to win Ōhariu proportionality would be preserved. If Dunne had lost it at the general election Labour would have got an additional list place (they would have had the 120th quotient).

    • weta 3.3

      Broadly speaking, I agree.

      Key’s popularity ratings are trending downwards in the continual friction of politics. The spring seems to have out of his step, the shine from his eye .. he is no longer the new kid on the block.

      The inner circles of the NZ ‘National Party’ may decide to go sooner rather than later,
      perhaps with an unexpectedly fresh face.

      A beaming Judith Collins with Lusk looming in the background, an avuncular
      Stephen Joyce backed by The Brethren, or perhaps Chris Finlayson after
      signing a deed of settlement with Tuhoe ?

      http://www.3news.co.nz/Govt-and-Tuhoe-sign-170m-settlement/tabid/1607/articleID/291384/Default.aspx

    • tamati 3.4

      Voters have a history of punishing politicians who unneccessarily cause elections. If Key was to use this as an excuse to drop the writ I imagine he would take a decent hit in the polls.

      Elections every three years is tiresome at the best of times, having another after barely 18 months would be very frustrating.

    • paul andersen 3.5

      on ya

    • Retired Engineer 3.6

      Key would gamble, yes. While Shearer is still the leader of labour.

      He would gamble that labour under Shearer would not win the confidence of the voters.
      If the labour members are friends are nervous or worse about Shearer as leader then the average joe public will sense it. Shearer could not fight his way out of a wet brown paper bag.

    • Chrissy 3.7

      He might roll the “die now”.

  4. burt 4

    This is great. I’m glad that this David Henry chap is credible and knows what he’s talking about because the David Henry (who was the Chief Electoral Officer) that told Labour it’s pledge card broke the electoral laws was apparently a buffoon.

    • In 50 years time burt will still be complaining about the pledge card. Let it go burt, let it go …

    • georgecom 4.2

      Burt, whilst you are in a truth and reconciliation mode, do you think your past and present leaders will come clean about their dealings with the E. Brethren in 2005? You know, all those meetings to ‘pray’ etc.

      As the old gospel song goes “what a friend we have in Don Brash, of what pain we often bear, just because we do not carry, a long bag of cash to Brash”

  5. A.Ziffel 5

    I think an agreement with NZF would be sought before calling an early election.

  6. Tigger 6

    Who would National run in Ohariu? Katrina Shanks is an embarrassment, another Melissa Lee waiting to happen. Without a three way split it’s probably Nationals to lose, and Shanks is up to that challenge.

    • Retired Engineer 6.1

      If Robertson, Shearer, Mallard, King and Hipkins had not driven Charles Chauvel out labour would be a shoe in for Dunnes seat. They are trying to piss off Dalzeill in Christchurch and Mahuta in the Waikato.
      Stupid f$ckwiths are eroding the party to protect their careers. They can’t cope with other MPs who are brighter than themselves.

      Ohariu could be a Labour seat, if the party gets rid of the negative morons who are now the bosses.
      Dump Shearer as soon as possible if you want to win the next general election.

      • xtasy 6.1.1

        Retired Engineer: Yes, we need smart engineering, smart engineers, and I totally support your comment. It has distressed and dismayed me for months. Last year was a golden opportunity year, and what did Labour with apprentice leader “Shorn Shearer” do?

        They missed endless opportunities of taking a government in meltdown to the bloody cleaners and hold them accountable. Only bits were achieved, and Shearer was allowed to bumble his way through, get more time, on parole, and stuff up opportunities galore.

        Come November he thought he was on a wave up, and he dealt out at the media’s request, to deal to Cunliffe, whose only fault was not to swear total allegiance, unconditionally, to support “Shorn Shearer” for permanency. What a damned sin, it was the call for Shearer, to deal to him, and his camp, led by Grant the C*nt, they got Shearer to send Cunny Boy into the backrow. So there sits one of Labour’s greatest talents, in line with other talents, while a mediocre front bench, some beyond their use by date, are clinging to the chairs and scream across the chamber, not even impressing Key and English most the time.

        Now if an early general election will be called, we have a Labour Leader out of wits, unconvincing, not media friendly, a bit dull, slow, stumbling and bumbling, as before, he can string a few more words together though, but in speeches and tv debates, he would look like a total embarrasment when compared to smart and cunning Key.

        We are nearly there, another present by a hopeless government in disarray, to hand over the much cherished opportunity of early general election, but hey, Labour stick to no hopers and losers, and are most likely going to miss that opportunity and stuff up again, for yet another 3 or more years.

        Gasp, what a terrible scenario, others may be prepared (Peters and perhaps the Greens), but Labour may stuff up big, handing it over to Key, to govern alone next time, after Dunne has become such a loser and embarrassment, he is likely to have to resign from Parliament within months later this year.

        I cannot believe the idiocy ruling Labour since 2011.

      • weka 6.1.2

        “If Robertson, Shearer, Mallard, King and Hipkins had not driven Charles Chauvel out labour would be a shoe in for Dunnes seat.”

        And if the GP don’t stand a candidate. I hadn’t realised that the combined vote for the Labour and GP candidates was more than that for Dunne.

        • Pasupial 6.1.2.1

          That would only work if there was an agreement between the two parties to coordinate strategically. I can’t recall a time when Labour have done this for the Greens before; in fact in 2002 the combined L/G vote in the Corromandel was 1766 higher than National, but National took the seat from Jeanette Fitzsimmons anyway.

          I reckon that the Greens would be willing to refrain from standing a candidate in Ohariu if there was a quid pro quo (my preference would be pulling the ghost Labour candidate from Dunedin North – but that’s not going to happen).

      • The Fan Club 6.1.3

        This is nonsense. Ohariu is a seat where Labour only had a hope by coming through the middle. Look at the party vote — 5-7k majorities for National.

        • Tigger 6.1.3.1

          Yes, National’s to lose, like I said. Shanks is there as a patsy candidate, designed not to suck vote from Dunne. But what I’d Dunne isn’t there? Do National name her again? Could she stand the spotlight of a national campaign? She is very right leaning, very morally conservative, and stupid.

    • mikesh 6.2

      I think a bye election would likely go National’s way since Dunne probably lost most of his Labour support in 2008 when he threw in his lot with National. Also we don’t know who the Labour candidate would be now that Charles Chauvel has left.

  7. Macro 7

    I think the most sensible comment on this whole sad affair is given here:
    http://norightturn.blogspot.co.nz/2013/06/the-henry-report.html
    If Dunne did leak the report on the goings on in GCSB then he deserves our compliments – not our condemnation. On the other hand he has done enough other to well warrant his demise. I do not think his departure will be immanent. The obvious “deal” struck for him to retain the Party funding in return for his continued vote will suffice

    • McFlock 7.1

      +1

    • the pigman 7.2

      He deserves our compliments for leaking the report, but his spineless, craven “non-sworn testimony” lying deserves our utter condemnation. It is so symptomatic of the current raiding party and the disgraced and discredited Key government.

      From paragraph 81 of the report:

      “… He advises me that he did not in fact meet the reporter that day. He has also advised me that he did not give the reporter access to the Kitteridge report.”

      Yet he’s unwilling to release the content of the e-mails to Vance in order to back this up. I/S is being far too kind to Dunne.

      He should confess, fall on his sword, and disappear. The stink of his lies, like John Banks’ (though he appears to have gotten away with it) will continue to be corrosive to the government and people’s views of politicians generally.

      • Pete 7.2.1

        We have a protection against self-incrimination in our criminal law if Dunne did do it, he could be charged with wrongful communication, so I don’t think he should be compelled or pressured to confess.

        I do think there should be a criminal investigation initiated and a search warrant executed to get the rest of those emails.

        • McFlock 7.2.1.1

          I agree.
          I reckon it’s as suspicious as fuck that the two exchanged 80-odd emails in the two weeks before the leak, but if he wants to withhold stuff that’s his right.

          • Lloyd 7.2.1.1.1

            Just remember he voted for the bill giving GCSB the right to check your emails.

        • Rich 7.2.1.2

          As an MP, I think he’s protected from prosecution by the 1689 Bill of Rights.

      • Penny Bright 7.2.2

        The DEFENDANT Banks is still facing a private prosecution for electoral fraud in the Auckland District Court.

        The next hearing is Thursday 4 July 2013 at 11.45am.

        The DEFENDANT Banks is not required to be present on this occasion.

        He has NOT ‘gotten away with it’ – thanks to private prosecutor Graham McCready.

        The question is – how come the DEFENDANT Banks has not yet been stood down as a Minister, by Prime Minister John Key?

        Penny Bright
        ‘Anti-corruption / anti-privatisation’ campaigner

        2013 Mayoral candidate

        http://www.dodgyjohnhasgone.com

    • prism 7.3

      Macro +2

    • Huginn 7.4

      +1

  8. ghostrider888 8

    Cool 😎 (86 e-mails aye, many discussing the Kitteridge report).

  9. karol 9

    And we have the Thin Thread of (GCSB?) metadata surveillance being used to identify the leaker

    Logs of emails on government systems obtained from March 22 – when the report was finished – and April 8, were used to track the leak.

    They included the email logs of 11 cabinet ministers, and their staff and two support ministers and their staff.

    Telephone billing records were also obtained, and building access records.

    These record identified three people who had a copy of the final version of the report, and who had been in contact with Vance. They were: a GCSB officer; an officer in the prime minister’s office, and Mr Dunne.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 9.1

      Hasnt Dunne heard of web mail ?

      And using a drafts folder in a shared web mail ( gmail) to correspond. That what its ( fairly) untraceable at either end

    • bad12 9.2

      A 3 way leak perhaps???, everyone will be wondering just what good reason would an ‘officer’ of the GCSB have for being in contact with a DomPost reporter…

    • McFlock 9.3

      Nah that’s just standard stuff for network maintenance.

      ThinThread would be sitting in wellington getting that stuff from all the ISPs in NZ and the southern cross relays.

      Similar to some plausible theories (expressed here) behind dotcom’s high FPS ping rate 🙂

      • Randle 9.3.1

        Yeah don’t see how it’s that amazing that emails were traced.

        Absolutely every email sent and received is kept on gov databases. Not that hard to go back and link it all up. add to that electronic swipe cards and you have just one more piece of the puzzle.

    • xtasy 9.4

      karol, thank you for pointing out the crucial details, it was well mentioned on the TV news for once!

    • Chrissy 9.5

      Poor Peter!

  10. RedLogix 10

    Personally this is one moment where I have to agree with John Armstrong. The left would best leave the witch-hunt to Winston. As much as I realise that Dunne has been no friend of the left, at the same time kicking a man when he’s down is always ugly.

    Besides the leaking of the GSCB report is something that was welcomed by the left when it happened; we can hardly celebrate the the political demise of the man who had the balls to do it.

    • prism 10.1

      Redlogix +1 The report leaking by Dunne almost matches the salutary effects of Winston’s Winebox revelations and and makes up for a lot of dross.

      • Pascal's bookie 10.1.1

        Few points though:

        I thought the report was going to be made public anyway, the leak only brought it forward a few days.

        Dunne denies leaking the report, if any credit is due for leaking it then he only gets it when it’s explained why he did it, if he did.

        • Colonial Viper 10.1.1.1

          Why the hell would Dunne risk leaking the report if it was coming out in a few days anyway? What was critical about those few days?

          • Pascal's bookie 10.1.1.1.1

            Wouldn’t have a clue.

            But from memory the speculation at the time was that Key’s office leaked the story to distract from his Chinese blatherings.

            • TruthSeeker 10.1.1.1.1.1

              I always thought that if anyone had a motive to leak the Kitteridge report it would be some disgruntled GCSB employee. As it turns out, a GCSB staffer did have access to the report and was in contact with Andrea Vance in the same time frame as Dunne. Henry had no reason to suspect them, though, because all of their contacts were found to be “entirely commensurate with the officer’s official duties”. I don’t want to cast aspersions on that person but to my mind this finding does not necessarily rule them out as a suspect. Dunne at the very least deserves to get a fair hearing before convicted in the court of public opinion.

              • Pascal's bookie

                Yeah yeah but.

                You’re a journo. You get the report. What do you do before publishing?

                Talk to the PMs office and the GCSB and ask questions based on what you know from the report and see if you can winkle anything else out, or catch them in a contradiction, or anything else.

                I’m pretty sure that’s what those contacts were.

                • TruthSeeker

                  Henry doesn’t say when the contacts occurred. The time frame was 22 March – 8 April. Dunne is supposed to have leaked the report on the morning of 8 April. So I would be interested to know when the six emails/phone calls between Vance and the GCSB were.

                  • xtasy

                    Henry would have diligently analysed the time frame, likely contents and course of correspondence and phone calls, and he narrowed it down, to in the end only focus on one person: Dunne!

                    The other likely candidates were in the end ruled out. That leaves Dunne, and as he denies it, to have leaked the report, that raises questions about staff in his office. There was media mention that Dunne’s staff were called into the PM’s office before the media conferences this afternoon, which is very unusual. Seems the PM tried to extract comments from them, or at least tell them off, or warn them about responsibilities and consequences of not abiding by them.

                    • TruthSeeker

                      Dunne also categorically ruled out any member of his staff in his press conference today. He then said that he did not know who leaked the report.

                    • Pascal's bookie

                      Dunne resigning meant some of his staff lost their jobs today.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 10.1.1.1.2

            To look a few centimetres taller to the reporter, perhaps…

          • lurgee 10.1.1.1.3

            Thinking with his todger, perhaps.

    • Colonial Viper 10.2

      I’m with you guys. If Dunne really did this, he did our nation a favour. A big favour.

      Hope the guy doesn’t get renditioned to Bahrain.

      • xtasy 10.2.1

        CV – Dunne is NO hero, thanks!

        He is rather a traitor for the whole country, having voted in favour of the state asset part sale, for the recent social welfare reforms, to get sick and disabled pressured into open employment, and for other highly controversial bills.

        Please do not show sympathy for a traitor of justice, fairness and decent government, which New Zealanders should deserve. Give this hollow man no credit, thank you, he has fallen on his own sword, totally deservedly.

        I also even resorted to write to him, before the final vote on the Social Security (Benefit Categories and Work Focus) Amendment Bill, and he never replied, he ignored my and other’s pleas, and he voted to bring in UK style work capacity assessments, that will cause much grief and harm for sick and incapacitated beneficiaries.

        I have just received first reliable info that the MSD are already trying to get expressions of interest from “service providers” to get mentally ill into jobs, under questionable conditions! It seems like a huge social and health experiment with many dangers!

        I just need to check whether you are aware of this, before you declare Peter Traitor Dunne a “hero” of sorts!

        • asd 10.2.1.1

          I have to agree he is another traitor to the kiwi working man/woman by default because of his legislative support for Nationals draconian anti-worker policies. I have no sympathy for him. His sadness whether real or fake is a side show to the real issues.

    • Anne 10.3

      Well said RedLogix.

      On The Panel this evening Stephen Franks was appearing to suggest in a roundabout way that there is another aspect to this story. Hard to believe though it may be, it appears (if I read him correctly) Peter Dunne was having an affair – presumably with a journalist. That may be the reason he is refusing to disclose all the emails.

      “Infatuation” was the word used by Franks.

      • tamati 10.3.1

        Sounds like a home grown “House of Cards” , unfortunatly our very own Francis Urqhart/Underwood forgot to push his little girl of the roof!

      • muzza 10.3.2

        If Nick Smith can have an affair, Dunne can also pull it off!

        The problem which exposes, itself under any such spurious circumstance, is that these types of *activities*, can be used as leverege against law makers!

        How many members of our parliament, are being bent over!

      • xtasy 10.3.3

        Anne – reminds me of Russian, female spies, sort of. Was there not a very “hot” one that cause much upheaval in the US a few years ago? I doubt whether Andrea Vance would go to such levels though.

      • lurgee 10.3.4

        That was my first suspicion, being thoroughly smutty minded and experienced enough to know that sex trumps principle almost every time. I suspect Dunne thought he would impress the niave little very exerpienced journalist by showuing her his portfolio.

        Of course, it is hard to make out what Franks is saying on any topic as his voice is so bloody dull and monotonous. If they ever put him and Chris ‘Why use one word when 23 will do?’ Trotter on the panel together, I might kill my radio.

      • weta 10.3.5

        It would hardly be the first time it has happened .. but the outcome makes it interesting.

      • Treetop 10.3.6

        Profumo Affair

        “Profumo confessed that he had misled the House and lied in his testimony and on 5 June (1963), he resigned his cabinet position as well as his Privy Council and Parliamentary membership.”

        en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profumo_Affair

        Picked up a mag last week while at the doctors about Keller, the call girl who had an affair with Profumo and the Russian spy. Keller is about 70 years old now and lives alone and with her cat.

        • Anita 10.3.6.1

          I thought this was a pretty good summary of the Profumo affair. A lot of the BBC Witness programmes are damned good actually.

          • Treetop 10.3.6.1.1

            Thanks for that, will listen to it tomorrow. Your link is not a dud like mine.

    • Jackal 10.4

      I disagree… Dunne should be kicked until he is out the door. The issue here isn’t that the leak was somewhat beneficial in shedding light on the GCSB’s questionable activity, it was that the leak occurred at all. Don’t forget that the Kitteridge report was going to be released anyway, so what real benefit was there to the left?

      If the leaking of official government documents is somehow seen as beneficial for the left simply because many don’t like the GCSB, then just wait until more leaks start happening that undermine the left. The leaking of private or confidential information is not usually a good thing (look at how Paula Bennett used it), and in my opinion Peter Dunne should feel the full weight of the law. He certainly shouldn’t be given a hospital pass by leftwing commentators.

      • Colonial Viper 10.4.1

        yeah, helping the Left is always a bad idea. You piss off the Right, and the Left still want you hanged on principle.

        No wonder the Left have so many friends.

        • Jackal 10.4.1.1

          Was Dunne (or whoever leaked the report) really helping the left, or just ensuring the report was released when the Prime Minister, the person responsible for the GCSB, was out of the country?

          Protecting brand Key is numero uno after all, and all three people who could have leaked the report had something to gain from trying to protect Keys credibility.

          Besides, how exactly was leaking a report that was about to be released anyway help the left? All it really did was reduce the amount of flack Key came under, because he wasn’t around to answer questions.

          We talked about this tactic a while ago… This time it’s blown up in their faces.

          • Pascal's bookie 10.4.1.1.1

            Exactly. What was the great benefit people are giving Dunne credit for here? Dude’s still voting for the GCSB bill right? Fuck him.

        • RedLogix 10.4.1.2

          I have to note that the ever reliable No Right Turn takes this position:

          Calls for leakers to be prosecuted should be seen in the same light as calling environmentalists treasonous economic saboteurs: the last refuge of scoundrels. I expect the Greens to support democratic values and be above such things.

          http://norightturn.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/the-greens-should-support-leakers-not.html

          • gobsmacked 10.4.1.2.1

            Quite apart from the ethical issue, NRT is right on the politics too:

            Next (obvious) questions to Peters, Norman, Robertson:

            “Have you ever leaked? Will you ever leak? Will you promise to fire an MP/Minister who leaks?” etc.

            We can enjoy Dunne’s demise as it is. No need to create future rods for own backs.

  11. ak 11

    Hi kids, hey just a quick note, don’t give this pompous clown the benefit of reducing the dirty lying scab to a mere joke when you’re mucking about on your facetube titter thingies and whatever you do, he’s rotten filth of the highest order who only rose above the rim of mediocre intelligence and disgusting repulsive vanity on the staunch backs of solid, selfless, sacrificing battlers upon whom he has daily and relentlessly rained excrement with every traitorous and self-serving tory-sucking utterance and political act, and ground their faces into broken glass with every smug ejaculation of his own risible self importance. He lied to save his skin, Red. Scum. Ta ta, keep warm and would it kill ya to write?

  12. ghostwhowalksnz 12

    The Crimes Act is interesting.

    “Section 78A of the Crimes Act provides that ‘Every one is liable to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 3 years who, being a person who owes allegiance to the Queen in right of New Zealand, within or outside New Zealand, (a) knowingly or recklessly, and with knowledge that he is acting without proper authority, communicates any official information or delivers any object to any other person knowing that such communication or delivery is likely to prejudice the security or defence of New Zealand.’

    Could this be why Dunne is still ‘denying’ the leaking of the report

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      Peter “Manning” Dunne

    • TruthSeeker 12.2

      I can’t see how leaking the report a few days before its public release prejudices the security or defence of New Zealand. I doubt that any charges will come as a result of a Police complaint.

  13. Yes 13

    Dunne was always a one vote party and would of saddled with labour if they were in power too. Another non story other that national now get to put a national mp into that position and doesn’t have too worry another partner. Gets better ..national will always win dunne seat. National will put up a candidate for Epsom. This is all great news and the Maori party is getting stronger so national will win in a landslide because labour is too in bed with the greens who today announced a major tax of carbon…add 25% to your cost of living guys. Labour has an out of control coalition partner in the greens which will make up 50% of cabinet. Lol…this is very good news for national and new Zealand.

    Not to mention Winston wants a piece of cabinet too.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 13.1

      Keep telling yourself that as the Tory scum slide further and further down the polls 😆

    • the pigman 13.2

      “Another non story” eh, Yes – what a surprise 😉

      It seems that you still haven’t bothered to read up on the allocation of electorate and list seats under MMP, though.

      • Yes 13.2.1

        Yep…so what is your take if national win dunne and banks seat?

        • the pigman 13.2.1.1

          I sense that you genuinely don’t get how MMP works.. which is odd for someone who posts so much on a political blog (albeit only to remind readers of how much of a “non-story” everything they’re discussing is).

          If National return the same party vote results as they did at the 2011 election (optimistic, even for a blue-skies thinker like yourself), but win Dunne’s and Banks’ seat, they have the same number of MPs as they do currently, they just forego the scum from the bottom of their list (the Aaron Gilmores of this world).

          They lose their two lapdogs and would be completely beholden to the Maori Party to make up their numbers… and hot tip: I don’t think the Maori Party would have the mandate from their voters to be National’s only support partner.

          • Yes 13.2.1.1.1

            Pigman by name pigman by nature? You answered what I told you. National get two more MPs…MMP is simple.

            I don’t think you can read. Great news for national and NZ..two more national MPs is what I said.

            • the pigman 13.2.1.1.1.1

              Yes. National don’t get any more MPs. Assuming they win both Epsom and Ohariu, their electorate MPs enter and 2 of their National list MPs miss out.

              • Anita

                Ugh no.

                Currently:

                National: entitlement: 59 made up of 41 electorate + 18 list
                Labour: 34 = 23 +11
                Green: 14 = 0 +14
                NZF: 8 = 0 + 8
                Māori: 3 = 0 + 3 (note this is a 1 seat overhang, their Saint-Laguë entitlement is actually 2)
                Mana: 1 = 1 + 0
                ACT: 1 = 1 + 0
                United Future: 1 = 1 + 0

                This gives a total of 121 (120 plus 1 overhang)

                If Dunne and Banks had both lost to their National opponent

                National: entitlement: 60 made up of 43 electorate + 17 list
                Labour: 35 = 23 +12
                Green: 14 = 0 +14
                NZF: 8 = 0 + 8
                Māori: 3 = 0 + 3 (note this is a 1 seat overhang, their Saint-Laguë entitlement is actually 2)
                Mana: 1 = 1 + 0

                Giving a total of 121

                • Yes

                  Good 63 that’s an increase but guys forget coalitions look at one thing…national has a whopping 60 seats…greens don’t even win a seat ..bludgers. Based on average polls greens drop will under current status and greens are getting so much bad press at the mo.

                  Thanks for the post

                  • Anita

                    Huh?

                    National has 60 seats, the Greens have 14 seats in that scenario (59 and 14 in the real world).

                    BTW Saint-Laguë calcs are easy as – you can play with scenarios to your heart’s content 🙂

                  • Anita

                    Also huh II?

                    63 = Nat 60 + Māori 3

                    is less than

                    64 = Nat 59 + UF 1 + ACT 1 + Māori 3

                    • Yes

                      Agree just saying when you look at labour ..seriously way off national plus I reckon labour will lose a few seats at the election too. Mainly because greens are going seriously split some voters. Expect Maori and mana to be the biggest surprises in the elction. They will pick up the left or right voters that muck around with greens and NZ first.

                      Here’s my crystal ball
                      National 49%
                      labour 35%
                      greens 7%
                      NZ first 4%
                      Maori 4%
                      mana1%

                    • Anita

                      So you’re saying Labour will get a 7.5% increase?

                      Also Mana on 1% is not picking up anything from anywhere.

                      Basically you’re saying there’ll be a 2% swing against the right (assuming a right of National, ACT and the Conservatives – it’s a 4.5% swing if you add in NZF).

                • Anita

                  Oops – switch the Māori Party list and electorate count around in my results, the totals are all correct tho.

                  Bad tired fingers! 🙂

                • Labour, the Greens, and Mana have good chances of winning more electorates; especially in Christchurch. The thing about polls, is they are poor tool to determine where an electorate will go; as they focus on the party vote – in many electorates the party with the most party vote in that electorate does not correspond to who wins in the seat.

                  • Anita

                    Labour or the Greens winning additional electorate seats is very unlikely to alter the outcome of the election; they seem in no danger of failing to hit the threshhold or gaining an overhand.

                    P.S. “more electorates” for the Greens would be 1 – your phrasing reminds me of the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party 🙂

            • georgecom 13.2.1.1.1.2

              Indeed, the Nats get 2 more electorate MPs but no extra MPs into the house, whilst losing 2 yes men support partners. Good news indeed for NZ, might spell the end of the Nat govt. Well pointed out that man.

              • Anita

                They get one extra MP so does Labour.

              • Yes

                I agree with all your calculations..but look at this way..a coalition between 3 minor parties will not have the say of NZ..as there is such a blue nation based on 50% of the vote that the three parties will fumble so badly in coalition and the following election NZ first and greens will be crucified at the following election there is no way they will survive.

                NZ first will disappear, greens will plummet because of their economic tax policies that only labour will come through unscathed in 7 years time.

                Think of the long game.

                It will not be a happy marriage because fundamentally they don’t agree.

                By the way..dunne was labour labour labour so jumping into bed for power stakes is the fall down here …swapping between the government of the day is not good politics.

                Oh well one nil to the left today

                • weka

                  You seem to have utterly failed to understand that many NZers want to vote GP not Labour. And that many others would rather not vote than vote Labour.

                • TruthSeeker

                  There’s no way National is going to get 49% lol

                  If they couldn’t get a majority last time, at the height of their popularity, what makes you believe they can do it this time?

          • Anita 13.2.1.1.2

            Actually the two seats currently held by Dunne and Banks would be distributed to other parties – one to National one to Labour.

            I can post the Saint-Laguë table if you’re interested.

    • Chris 13.3

      “Gets better ..national will always win Dunne seat.”

      Unlikely… Ohariu-Belmont (previously Onslow) was a Labour seat since its inception in 1946 up until Dunne left the Labour Party and set up is United “something or other” Party.

      • GregJ 13.3.1

        Since 1996 – Ohariu (previously Ohariu-Belmont) has Party Voted National every election except 2002. National increased it’s percentage in 2005, 2008, & 2011 (to 49%). With Belmont being removed to Rimutaka in 2008 I think Ohariu has become even more National.

        The old Onslow seat is long gone I’m afraid – the demographics have changed a lot in 20 years – Khandallah, Ngaio and Johnsonville have become very middle/upper-middle class. Dunne was always been a strong local MP and, latterly, a convenient one for National. It is certainly not impossible for a strong local Labour candidate to win it but I would say it is more likely to be a National Seat for the foreseeable future.

        • lenore 13.3.1.1

          Though there are a few blue-greens in the area. I live there and totally agree, many labour voters have been priced out of living in these areas. The only thing in labour’s favour is that even in Ngaio/Khandallah, people know people who have been made redundant etc , there are SME;s who have not been helped by the nats. Not looking very hopeful though sigh!

        • Acting Up 13.3.1.2

          Agreed. Demographics have changed a lot. Churton Park is a fast growing suburb in the electorate, composed of McMansions and relative wealth.

          The electorate is turning blue. When Dunne goes, it will probably go National, as Labour will cease to benefit from a Dunne/National split tory vote.

  14. ak 14

    It’s over, Yes-man. When you’re Johnny No-mates and even your last two whores are self-immolating, the tree beckons. Do us all a favour and take your thirty pieces there now.

    • Yes 14.1

      Are you saying the maori party have sold out to 30 pieces of silver to the national?

      • muzza 14.1.1

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10624773

        Take it away, Pita!

        The Maori Party hoped to be a part of any government, regardless of its leanings. Then he confessed: “Actually, I got so used to the increase in salary I told the Prime Minister you’d better be good because if the other guys get in, I’ll go sell myself over there to keep my ministerial salary. I just got a new house, man – I can’t afford it on a backbencher salary so I’m up for grabs.” Whoops

  15. It appears that Dunne’s desire to keep some emails from Henry may have been for *cough* personal reasons rather than reasons relating to the GCSB report. Although if he did leak the report he does deserve our albeit grudging admiration.

    • Anne 15.1

      Umm… see my 10.3

      • mickysavage 15.1.1

        Aye although I think that the feeling was not reciprocated. Politics is not for anyone wanting a normal life is it … too many egos and too much testosterone.

        • Anne 15.1.1.1

          That’s the nice way of putting it. Power is an aphrodisiac. And when you get into the hot house environment that is parliament and all those dolly birds running hither and yonder…

          • ghostrider888 15.1.1.1.1

            “Look. Survey. Inspect. My hair is ruined! I look like a pan of bacon and eggs!”
            -from Howl’s Moving Castle. 😀

  16. tamati 16

    Another example of that so true axiom,

    “All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs”

    -Enoch Powell

  17. Thats the end of the united party, Im guessing all their supporters (if they have any) will vote
    Nzfirst now?

  18. Pasupial 18

    Dunne – like a dog’s dinner.

  19. Pete 19

    Winston Peters must be pleased as Punch. He’ll be the only coalition option for the Nats in 2014, and I’m sure he’ll make Key crawl before consenting to a coalition should he be in a kingmaker role.

    • Colonial Viper 19.1

      Could be right, but UF were only one MP anyway. And National can win Dunne’s seat itself in a heartbeat. EDIT just read above, OK Nats would lose a list Mp if they won another seat.

      • Jim Davis 19.1.1

        No they wouldn’t. Once the seats have been distributed no one can lose their seat. Proportionality goes out the window, and the Nats just fill Dunne’s seat with their winner in Ohariu.

  20. MikeG 20

    I would Dunne to remain in Parliament for the next ten years, simply so that he can be held accountable for signing off the $1.5 billion upgrade of the IRD computer system when it all goes horribly wrong like INCIS and Novopay.

  21. gsays 21

    so, let me get this straight..
    your behaviour means that you can not carry on as a minister,
    but your behaviour is fine for a member of parliament.
    i don’t remember voting for that.

    • TheContrarian 21.1

      “but your behaviour is fine for a member of parliament.”

      He was voted in so the only people to take him out are those who put him there to start with

  22. TheContrarian 22

    When I saw Dunne saying he was at a loss to explain his lapses in judgement my immediate thought was “What can make a man lose his compass and act in a manner that he later has complete befuddlement about?”

    A woman. One they are ‘besotted’ with.

    • TruthSeeker 22.1

      Yes, it explains his behavior.

      It doesn’t prove he gave her the report though. I’m still open-minded about that. I think he could very well be telling the truth. Fact, they say, is often stranger than fiction.

    • Molly Polly 22.2

      I agree.

      Dunne’s performance tonight on television reminded me of someone who has allowed decorum and common sense to desert him while in the grip of misplaced infatuation.

      I have seen it first hand in Parliament. Middle-aged male politicians in seemingly powerful positions, making dicks of themselves with younger women staff members and journalists, whether reciprocated or not, and acting like lust-obsessed adolescents.

      If I’m not mistaken – this is exactly what we saw tonight.

      Dunne was scrambling to explain his behaviour…he said he didn’t know what had overcome him – he had had a lapse of judgement. He couldn’t coherently give a reason that made sense.

      But it made sense to me. Women’s intuition if you like.

      He looked like someone gripped by a late-life surge of lust who had temporarily lost his marbles.

      He won’t release the details of all the 80 plus emails because they will expose his obvious infatuation, his foolishness, his stupidity, his ego and his lust for a woman. And he was prepared to handover important political information because of this.

      Ahh…there’s no fool like an old fool.

      • North 22.2.1

        “Misplaced infatuation”.

        Love it !

        Problem is ShonKey Python is the two election beneficiary of that cargo-culted, dog-whistlingly excellent, misplaced infatuation.

      • Grumpy 22.2.2

        Cripes! Just imagine the reaction if it had been Duncan Garner?

    • mouse 22.3

      I suspect Mr Dunne has not lost his compass… he is more likely just collateral damage.

      Let us not forget one of the three copies of the final report was held by the GCSB, the GCSB’s integrity has been incredibly tarnished by the revelations around Mr Key’s relationship and the appointment process of their new Boss.

      It would be wrong to assume all GCSB Spooks took the Job because they want to become one of Fascism’s Finger-puppets… there is a coup d’état happening here… It’s not the one you guys are focusing on in Peter Dunne’s predicament.

      • Anne 22.3.1

        Interesting point mouse. I seem to recall a GCSB officer was also one of Andrea Vance’s contacts. The ‘collateral damage’ would be around the subject matter in Molly Polly’s comment.

        Can’t help feel a bit sorry for the old bugger… dunne over like a burnt piece of toast by the very PM he has supported and helped keep in office for the past few years.

        • Pascal's bookie 22.3.1.1

          I suspect the GCSB contact would have been Vance seeking some sort of comment after getting the report. If there is suspicion that someone on GCSB was the leak, there’d be a lot more focus on it, no?

          • TruthSeeker 22.3.1.1.1

            Just because Henry couldn’t find any evidence that the GCSB officer was the source of the leak (e.g. emails setting up meetings, phone messages or whatever) does not totally rule out the possibility that they leaked competently and left no trace.

            • Pascal's bookie 22.3.1.1.1.1

              Yeah well we can’t rule anything out really. But the simplest explanation is the most likely I think.

              If the leak came from GCSB, then Dunne is resigning for what?

              To protect the identity of a GCSB officer who broke the law. Dunne has been in cabinet now for how long? I can;t even be bothered working it out, but I’d say there’s fairly good chance that he would frown on civil servants leaking stuff like this.

              his statement today was about privacy of communications, but what would a law breaking GCSB officer be entitled to privacy from an investigation into that law breaking?

              Nothing is proven, but I think the balance of probabilities at the moment points to Dunne. More will come out no doubt, but at the moment, I’m reckoning it was Dunne wot dun it.

          • mouse 22.3.1.1.2

            PB – The GCSB might be one organisation… but it’s many people, not all of whom are happy about their boss’s appointment process… and diffusing focus, is what they do!

            • TruthSeeker 22.3.1.1.2.1

              Well, if anyone could leak something with enough skill not to get caught I’d have thought it would be someone in the intelligence community. Then again they illegally spied on 85 people and got caught. So who knows?

              • Pascal's bookie

                They couldn’t manage to number the reports properly to keep track of them either 😉

                But why would a GCSB leaker be making any traceable calls to Vance at all?

  23. karol 23

    One of the thing that interest me is that Key said it was pretty usual for an MP to exchange a lot of emails with a journalist.

    Is that part of the way journalists and MPs are more into the relationships with each other, in contrast with the amount they all (dis)connect from the public.

    • Colonial Viper 23.1

      Given the other thread, and how the US govt was tracing phone calls made to journalists, i wonder how exactly Key knows that fact about the email habits and email addressees of 120 other NZ MPs.

      • Yes 23.1.1

        You and I should be worried then. Lol..we might be stopped at the border

      • TheContrarian 23.1.2

        ” i wonder how exactly Key knows that fact about the email habits and email addressees of 120 other NZ MPs.”

        My guess is the same way everybody understand the workings of a workplace after being there for 6 years. Hint: They don’t need help from the Yanks.

      • Anne 23.1.3

        i wonder how exactly Key knows that fact about the email habits and email addressees of 120 other NZ MPs.

        Perhaps he’s been having dinner again with his old school mate Ian Fletcher.

      • infused 23.1.4

        Probably because it’s monitored. I wonder if this sort of stuff ever gets leaked by the IT teams. It would be so easy to do.

        • Colonial Viper 23.1.4.1

          Probably because it’s monitored.

          By whom? For what reason? We know that our spy services have spied on MPs before.

          In this case it means that Parliamentary Services was leaking information to the PM. That seems very unlikely, but if it occurred it would be a very big problem.

  24. ak 24

    Franks positing Pete and a woman? Theatre of the absurd this early in the piece? Mates, this is even bigger than anyone thought. Ad Vance, hilaria fair. Enter stage right either the full 85 or 86 and it’s curtain.

  25. karol 25

    Was the leaked Kitteridge Report, being the full version, more than the government was planning to make public?

    I seem to recall reading somewhere that key was not planning to make the full report public.

    • Pascal's bookie 25.1

      There are appendices containing the details of who was spied on, which were not going to be released, and haven’t been.

  26. North 26

    (Pete) Boy George…………..”karma karma karma karma karma chamee-lee-onnn………….you come and go-o-o-oh………….

    There is a thread in humanity that knows and feels poorly about the quisling. Quislings win they lose (shrug shoulders not disconsolately).

    Lotsa people gotta worry about empty cupboards.

    A sense of Maslow’s Need Heirarchy assists in understanding my point.

  27. georgecom 27

    First no party
    Now no cabinet position

    At least hes still got his hair.

    • North 27.1

      So The Old Perennial Trougher Perennial Cabinet Minister still has a forelock to tug does he ?

      Fuck it’s so Monty Python. They should take that Cabinet Room on a roadshow round the summer beach spots !

      Shonkey Python getting it on in Whangamata ??? LOL

  28. ak 28

    “If I akshully see what I’ve just akshully ovissly read, you reelise that I’ll have no option but to kick you right out”

    “Not necessarily, because…..(5 minutes later)…. of course that would leave you short of a vote”

    “So I never read it, you resign but remain, shut her up – threats and or money, you know the drill – get Army to write it up and hope for the best. Trust me, I sold their family silver and they still love me, it’ll blow over and anyway who cares. wanna wine?”

  29. infused 29

    Doesn’t sound like he did it. Sounds like he was covering his ass (flirting with a jurno). But I donno, this is a cluster fuck now.

    • North 29.1

      But not one His Vexing Righteousness Carer For Everything Chocolate Box Good And Personally Advanategous should not be called on, surely ?

  30. SukieDamson 30

    Dune, said on 1 News tonight “It’s the nastiest period of time, I’ve known in politics”.

    Not sure this is all directed at Winston.

  31. xtasy 31

    Much speculation, but the picture is clear, and will get clearer in the coming days, Dunne is “done”, and I bet, we will not only have a by-election, we may well have an early general election before the end of the year.

    I doubt that Dunne had an “affair” with Andrea Vance, and I doubt that some other speculations are true. I feel that someone in his office may have communicated a bit more than allowed, and that Dunne tried to minimise and cover this up. He appears to have talked with Vance on more than he should have, but I doubt he would have leaked the GCSB report himself.

    Whatever the truth, Dunne is so damned damaged, he is likely to lose a fair number of the reaffirmed and new sign ups to United Future in the coming days again, as people will question his integrity. He is himself beyond the use by date, and he did show himself as too apologetic after the whole report release this evening. If he is so innocent, why all this talk about misjudgment and so forth?

    Dunne is gone, maybe later this year, or certainly by end of next year.

    What else is there? The Speaker took risk and gave Dunne much credit and time to present confirmation on UF membership, so the Speaker himself will be questioned about his competency and credibility again next week. I see that man go soon, as Speaker, and that will also reflect badly on the government.

    Then Key hanging on to Dunne does not look good at all, and negativity will rub off on National and him, as the public see Dunne as a dodgy man now.

    What is of most concern to Labour and the left is, that Labour have a too weak, rather useless leader, exactly at the time when they should be ready to prepare for an early election. With that and a caucus too busy with defending their individual right to sit on those chairs in opposition, also the many talents stuck on the back bench, to keep the ones in the front cushioned from criticism, the party is in a too weak position to convince voters and win an early election.

    Wasting a year of golden opportunities last year, Labour are about to stuff up well for this year, so they will perhaps sit in opposition beyond 2017, allowing Key and Nats to get a total majority. Dismal, shameful, Labour needs to wake up and reshape NOW!

    • AsleepWhileWalking 31.1

      Not sure that the public see Dunne as the problem. Key comes across as a snake IMHO. Be interesting to see what the masses think of it all, and lets not forget that the Party Pill legislation was driven by Dunne and that is a popular topic right now.

      I hope this Dunne business bites Key in the arse. Hard.

  32. TruthSeeker 32

    Dunne has ruled out any of his staff leaking it, though.

    Maybe he is lying through his teeth… But if you’re going take him at his word that he didn’t personally leak it himself, then you have to also take him at his word that it wasn’t done by proxy.

    But we’ll have to wait and see what else emerges.

    • mouse 32.1

      Very perceptive TS.

      An appropriate bed time music video… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpnlnoaUSpE

      • ghostrider888 32.1.1

        Those are Excellent lyrics mouse; the Prophet could not have proclaimed it clearer himself.
        Muddy Waters, and much foolishness.

    • xtasy 32.2

      What I have noticed is Dunne always claiming he did not leak the “report”, it sounding more like the whole document. That may actually probably be true, but he has to my knowledge not denied leaking bits of what was in the report to the Dominion journalist.

      Yet Vance or Fairfax claim they got the whole report.

      So clearly the whole report was leaked by someone, and while all looks so murky, Henry narrowed the likely source down to Dunne, for apparently good enough reasons.

      Perhaps Dunne or one of his staff suffered themselves a lapse of memory, suffering from this now widespread amnesia within the government ranks?

  33. Rhinocrates 33

    Karma’s a bitch. Can’t say I have any sympathy for Dunne or United Coiffure. All I can say is “Don’t let the door catch your arse on the way out”.

    Still, I’m hoping that no-one thinks that this means that Peters has done anyone but himself a service. Instead, it looks like he’s positioning himself as the Nats’ coalition partner after 2014.

    Mumblefuck’s attempts to court him are looking increasingly pathetic.

    Collins as PM, Peters as deputy PM and Treasurer, Shearer and Robertson wondering, “But the plan was so perfect – what went wrong?”

    • ghostrider888 33.1

      Ain’t That A Kick in the Head.(ain’t that a hole in the boat).

    • xtasy 33.2

      Shearer is the perfect idiot, that is what is going wrong, Rhino, and you know it. Poison laid for the rats, and the poison distributor suffocates on it. Well that is one agenda. But what about the one that is not even onto it, David the Shorn, that is the one, Mumblescrew they call him.

      It is a day of sorrow and misery, as a general election is imminent, but Labour clung and do cling to a total loser, to run for election, which may come earlier than most thought. Hand the game over now, save the taxpayer the expense, give Key a third term as dictator, that is what he wants, might as well resign to the damned fact.

      • Pasupial 33.2.1

        Obviously, the Labour caucus did not listen to their membership when they selected Mumblefuck as “leader” of the party. How then did that come about? Well, this audio transcript of the pivotal decision moment has just come to me:

        Voice 1: I hereby convene this session of the Iron Spines Society.
        Voices [chanting]: We are the ABC Warriors!
        Voice [booming]: Bigjobs!!
        Voice 1: Yes. Now that our colleague has completed his 3 year assignment; snatching the laurels of failure from the jaws of victory, we needs must select a replacement. Lest we be at risk of the Goff’s human appearance seducing the punters away from the true path before our associate’s tasks are complete.
        Voices: [indistinct disgruntled murmuring]
        Voice 2: If I may have the floor? [sound of chairs moving etc.] We must be honest with ourselves; the Goff was a mistake; his humulation programing was too successful, and his, well; robotic…
        Voices: [chuckling]
        Voice: Bigjobs!!
        Voice 2: His robotic command of numbers created a dangerous perception of competance.
        Voices: [indistinct disgruntled murmuring]
        Voice 1: We know this already, Robertron.
        Voice 2: Ah, but does not our problem suggest it’s own solution? If the punters are indeed just a insufficiently industrious bunch of losers, then what do we need to seduce them to the cause of steel?
        Voice 1: You’re right! What we need is the greatest loser concievable…
        Voice 2: But where can we find this paragon of ineptituide?
        [sound of door knock, then hinge squeak as it opens]
        Voice 3: Did you want some tea? I mean, it smells like; engine oil, but that can’t… It must be tea – it’s in ummm… Teaspoons? No; cups. Or is it coffee? I may have some mango skins on me somewhere I could squeeze out for you? Did I ever tell you about the time I was in Africa…

        [Transcript ends]

  34. Jeremy Anderson 34

    All very interesting to suggest higher motives but men are generally base and as soon as he mentioned the stress to his wife in the post match interview it was apparent to me he has been caught chasing tail.
    That is why he won’t release emails he is ashamed of his behaviour. Didn’t part of the United Future brand at some point come from an amalgamation of a Christian party?

  35. Chris 35

    If Dunne is guilty of getting a bit on the side then there is no reason he should not have produced the emails…It would be bizarre to lose your job over a bit of skirt, minor embarrassment for a few weeks.

    • karol 35.1

      The rumour is not that he “got a bit on the side”, but that he was wanting/trying to.

      No question of it being a mutual infatuation.

      • Watching 35.1.1

        Karol you have it.

        I wonder what the long term inclination for Andrea Vance is?. All I can say is she didn’t start it but use it, You can only do this once.

        In the world of power and politics this just history repeating itself. It will happen again and again with your comment

        “is not that he “got a bit on the side”, but that he was wanting/trying to – No question of it being a mutual infatuation” – note I left your reference to he in the quote

      • ghostrider888 35.1.2

        well, from Peters on The Nation; Q.(lovely and astute Rachel) personally embarassing information contained in those emails? A. Yes.

        and from Colin James (an erudite commentator); while these -Banks-Gilmore-Dunne- “issues are on the periphery”, how Key “handles them” is not.

    • Populuxe1 35.2

      Tell that to Bill Clinton…

  36. Jenny 36

    Listening to National Radio yesterday, I heard Peter Dunne rationalising away his lack of party membership. His tones were so measured and calm I wondered if he was on Tylenol.

    http://gawker.com/5994905/tylenol-found-to-reduce-anxiety-over-existential-uncertainty-and-death

  37. Wet Wipes 37

    I’m no fan of ageing political prostitute Peter Dunne but I was puzzled by events until I read the comments to this thread.

    It was not obvious to me why Dunne would have leaked the report in the first place but his refusal to prove he didn’t by releasing the full emails seemed a fairly conclusive smoking gun.

    If, however, the said emails would have shown him to have been an idiot over a woman – and I would credit him with being sufficiently ‘old school’ to lay his best coat over a pile of horse-shit to protect a lady from getting her shoes dirty – it all makes perfect sense.

    Which means I believe he didn’t leak the report.

    Which means we still don’t know who did leak it, or why. And that we are now a lot less likely to ever find out.

  38. outofbed 38

    I was at a public function a couple of years ago and that nice Mr Dunne
    was certainly giving my partner lecherous looks. She felt so uncomfortable that we were forced to move away.
    The fact that he has been making inappropriate comments to a female journo in emails does not surprise me in the least. Frankly it was only a matter of time….

  39. woodpecker 39

    I wonder how this will affect his membership drive?

  40. Yes 40

    Dunne was a laborite from day one. the left lost one of their own today. Dunne was always centre left. As nzf are who they want to saddle up to in each election.

    Here is an interesting question. Let’s assume banks and dunne lose their seats to national but don’t form a government but retains both electorates. So we have a labour green nzf mana government. They have to go with mana and not Maori for lots of reasons.

    Who get what seats in cabinet Shearer pm russel or winne deputy. Russel minister of finance. Hone minister of Maori affairs. Education is labour. Health is greens. Business is greens/labour mix but union mp gets the head role. Tourism labour. IRD labour now you need to have some nzf members. Do you think they want nzf for social welfare no..so labour but green support somewhere. Still no nzf mp yet. Winnie getting frustrated.

    Tourism yep but greens want that. No nzf yet. Immigration..neither greens or nzf are suited for that because of their anti immigration rules so labour..still no nzf mp yet…Winnie is now really getting annoyed. MOBIE ..right that’s nzf main target but weight..this is the unions patch and labours big funders eye the unions so labour has to retain portfolio.

    ACC – Andrew little baby..he won’t give up that. Still no nzf.

    Mining..greens
    Police – ahh okay…nzf

    So what have we got..greens dominating green stuff, greens/unions dominating business, labour dominating add ons and nzf police.

    Just my thoughts of how the cake will be cut up. So how is it going to work when the greens say taxes increase for green policies and turn off the funding for growth opportunities for mobie and the nzf cracks down on crime and want more prisons and yet the greens want more counsuellors.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 40.1

      🙄

      • Colonial Viper 40.1.1

        Yeah reading that was a bit like entering the twilight zone.

        • Jenny 40.1.1.1

          Indeed CV I had the same feeling.

          A right wing fantasy for sure. We are informed of this by the reality of past Labour Party election coalition arrangements.

          the reason why the above scenario seems so crazy and out of touch with reality, is that past elections have seen Labour favour conservative coalition partners over more left ones. (Even if this meant bypassing the electorate’s more popular choice to go straight to a proven right wing partner with less electoral mandate. Follow the link)

          New Zealand election results 2002

          So how will it all work out?

          Here is my best guess.

          The Greens will take up the offer to enter into the tent with the strange toilet arrangements, and serial incontinence sufferers. New Zealand First will be invited into the tent as well, to match the flow of the Greens, to help keep up the steady uninterupted BAU drizzle.

          Peter Sharples, or Tuoroa Flavell, (which ever of them remains in parliament), will get Maori Affairs. (All mention of them being ‘haters and wreckers’ forgotten). Their eventual capitulation over the Seabed and Foreshore, (even though under National), will see them in the good stead with Labour.

          Hone Harawira will get nothing. (As expected) But this will not stop him. He will continue campaigning around the issues of child poverty and social justice and Maori issues as vigorously as ever.
          In a nightmare scenario for the Greens, the Mana Party may even start campaigning on environmental and Climate Change issues dropped by them to get cabinet positions.

          Russel Norman will settle for some sort of associate finance position. Metiria Turei will get the Social Policy portfolio, she wants.

          The New Zealand First Leader will reprise his previous role of international jet setter and baubel abuser. Other New Zealand First gains could be Associate Defence and Police Portfolios. (Not even a madman would let them near immigration).

          As the global financial crisis and the global climate crisis continue to worsen.

          It is likely that at some point during this administration, the Greens will suffer some huge sort of public hair pulling implosion due to their compromises over the environment and climate change. (Possibly worsened by self proclaimed economic wunderkind Russel Norman’s complete failure to make any inroads at all to alleviate the effects of the economic crisis.)

          • ghostrider888 40.1.1.1.1

            that made interesting reading Jenny. The sun is out.(housework to do, dust, vacuum, mop.).

    • Anita 40.2

      Dunne was part of the Douglas-Prebble-Caygill faction of Labour and departed as they lost power, not “left” in a way many people would mean it.

      • Yes 40.2.1

        Onk viper anita I at least anointed a left government just looked at the portfolios..what would your split be? No room for grant Roberston is there for a starter

        • Pasupial 40.2.1.1

          @ Yes
          I think you mis-spelt “Oink”. From now on I shall imagine all your utterences starting with that monosyllabic grunt.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 40.2.1.2

          There’s going to be more than enough work for everyone sorting out the fuckawful mess the National Party has made.

        • Anita 40.2.1.3

          TBH I was completely unable to follow your logic.

          To start with you say that NZF will get only 4% and then you say they’ll be in parliament.

    • Jacobin 40.3

      LOL what. Rogernome responsible for asset sales and soft on tax evasion is “one of us”. Get real

      • Colonial Viper 40.3.1

        Yep, responsible for propping up the Key English government, alongside the likes of John Banks. Shit that really makes Dunne a left winger.

        Hopeless wing nuts are hopeless.

        • Yes 40.3.1.1

          What mess..credit crunch started under Clarke and Cullen watch, yep national caused the earthquake. ACC big black hole was cullens legacy to the taxpayers. Poverty numbers increased under labour. Migration was at record highs under labour.

          Greens wanted to print 3.5 billion dollars..that would of all now been lost since the dollar has fallen quite rapidly now and will get back to 75 USA very soon. That was the greens target.

          Labour stopped any building out of cities and land. Palmer introduced the resource management act. National have done a fantastic job. This 200b borrowing is quite a concern given the fact that labour left no money in the kitty!!!!!!!! Nats might be wing nuts but Clarke and Cullen were definitely the screw….ups

          You need to stop reading your own press. Dunne is gone..good news another left mp gone.

          There is no way in hell that greens labour and nzf can have a happy marriage. Already the greens are stopping grassroots (read herald today) then add on the fact that Winnie wants a big post.

          Here is a really good scenario. Russel gets deputy pm..put so much much pressure on shearer..he abdicates and yeah guess who is pm….gee whiz guys can’t you see the writing and the plan.

          • Colonial Viper 40.3.1.1.1

            Lol u need your own stand up show

            Key has lost a Minister. Damn good week if you ask me.

  41. Yes 41

    Okay before I get abused there is one question that has never been asked.

    Russell do you want to prime minister of new Zealand?

    Get him to answer that one question and if he says no I will walk away and vote left for the rest of my life.

    I think it is a very valid question all labour party members should be asking Russell. It is a yes or no answer

    • Yes 41.1

      “to be”. Sorry

    • Lanthanide 41.2

      “Get him to answer that one question and if he says no I will walk away and vote left for the rest of my life.”

      Yeah right.

      I don’t see you you’re concerned about him being PM, you’re never going to vote for the left under any circumstances anyway.

    • Pasupial 41.3

      Seriously? “Screw you guys I’m going home!”? I hope this wasn’t in response to my: [40.2.1.1] ‘I think you mis-spelt “Oink”’ line. It was a pretty mild jibe; in which I even misspelled; misspelled, while correcting your spelling – surely you could’ve made some kind of comeback to that? After all, you have previously taunted others on this very thread: [13.2.1.1.1] ‘Pigman by name pigman by nature?’.

      It’s not that I respect you, or your authority (which has to be earned), but I don’t like to think of myself as someone who taunts the easily confused until they run squealing home. I hope that you just had something better to do with your Saturday avo (maybe pig hunting?).

      BTW, a question is either; valid, or; invalid, saying; ‘very valid’, is a pointless waste of an adjective. But if you want the answer, ask the question; it doesn’t cost anything to send a letter to an MP.

  42. millsy 42

    Good bye and good riddance to Dunne.

    Its about time someone tripped the guy up, he was hard right pretending to be centrist. Labour moved rightward after 2002 and you can thank him for them doing that.

    And “Yes”, I would love to know, how many hospitals did National close down between 1990 and 1999, and how many hospitals did Labour close between 1999 and 2008? I think you would find that the debt was to ensure those hospitals stayed open, and that New Zealand had access to decent health care, not like in the USA.

    And also, if you are anti union, you are anti democracy. If you ban the unions (which is what you want to do). Living standards will plunge, and everyone will be broke, but the modus operandi of all National and ACT supporters is to make everyone broke.

  43. Michael 43

    I’m glad to see the back of Dunne (at least from ministerial office) and believe he should be kicked out of Parliament, too. However, if there is either (or both) a by-election in Ohariu or an early general election, Labour will not benefit. In its current form, and under current leadership, Labour does not appeal to people, apart from those who vote for it for self-interested reasons and some of those who are getting disenchanted with NACT. Of the first group (in the main, Labour caucus members and those on the public payroll in one form or another, plus union officials), the numbers are small. Of the second, while their numbers are greater than the first group, their political allegiances are extremely fickle. This group, largely middle-class, employed, with mortgages, are not being harmed by NACT’s actions (probably deliberately, although NACT focuses on the rich, almost exclusively), so therefore no reason to change to “NACT-lite”, which is all Labour now is. Labour abandoned its base (unwaged, low-wage and lower middle-class people) many years ago. Apart from 2005, when this group saved its bacon (after the middle-class, notably the bureaucrats, deserted it), Labour has never bothered to appeal to it (even after 2005, Labor continued to govern in the interests of the rich and, to a lesser extent, the fickle middle classes). Although there are a large number of voters (the former Labour base) up for grabs, most of them are alienated from politics (as the New Right intended) and will not vote at all, even if asked to (some will vote Green; others, mainly older, for Winston). AFAICS, Labour’s strategy is to continue ignoring its former base, while toadying to those who come from the same social class as its caucus, who hold it in contempt (maybe something about familiarity breeding that contempt – something for the sociologists to ponder).

  44. johnm 44

    NZ Bullshit
    He’s still in there supporting El gringo Yankey john. he is still fucking us all the pathetic little scumbag. Can’t you see the acting? All this drama is rubbish, fools! You are real suckers for a bit of bullshit drama I really give up on this stupid shithole country.

  45. Hami Shearlie 45

    Love to be a fly on the wall at the Dunne House this weekend. I wonder what Mrs Dunne is saying and doing??

    • xtasy 45.1

      Mrs Dunne is likely to consult her lawyer, and prepare the divorce papers, after bits about her husband’s apparent “flirtations” with Andrea Vance have surfaced. Twitter and more reveal it.

      No wonder Dunne told the media to stay clear of him and his wife, as they could witness a lot of domestic arguments and strife.

      Peter “Done” is surely done, well done now, I would think. After a hellish 2 weeks for him, it will not get any better, as Peters, Mallard, Parker and others will certainly lay into him again, when Parliament sits again next week.

      It will in the end prove too much for Dunny Boy, and he will possibly resign, as it will all take too high a toll on him.

  46. RedBaronCV 46

    Mrs D has probably shot through already. Given how negatively he’s affected so many of the country’s children all I can do is wish him “karma” and plenty of it.

  47. Jenny 47

    The headline for this post by ZETETIC, should have read, Dunne Gone

  48. Jenny 48

    This administration looks set to make a record for having two senior ministers before the courts at the same time.

  49. Jenny 49

    Is Key over done?

    • Maui 49.1

      I think your question answers itself, but you will have to ask John Key .. and be lucky
      you get a straight answer from him.

  50. bad12 50

    The real question that need answering now is WHO has been leaking such juicy information to Winston Peters,

    There seems only 2 logical choices for such suspect, Vance the DomPost reporter or someone reasonably high up in the National Government’s food chain,

    Have National sacrificed it’s lap-dog in the form of Dunne giving NZFirst the publicity for His political demise so as to ensure it’self a coalition partner after November 2014…

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