Good Xmas news for Auckland

Written By: - Date published: 10:55 am, December 21st, 2009 - 11 comments
Categories: auckland supercity, local body elections - Tags: , ,

The UMR poll for the Auckland super-city mayoral race is interesting reading. The headline difference (PDF) of 11% towards Len Brown over John Banks has been extensively reported.  The poll of 482 people, while small, is even more interesting when you see the breakdown of figures – and a lot worse for John Banks. The samples are small and therefore should be treated with considerable caution.

From the basis of the polling I’ve helped with over the last 20 years, and in particular with a knowledge of groups that vote in local body elections, some things stand out to me.

Predictably the best area results for John Banks are around Central Auckland,  West Auckland, and on the North Shore where he trails Len Brown by only a few percentage points. However there are wide margins to Len Brown in the South, East, and the Rodney/Franklin edge areas.

The under-30’s, who aren’t great voters in local elections, favour John Banks by a few percent. However in all older age groups who do tend to vote in local elections considerably favour Len Brown.

As usual, males tend to have earlier decisions. However there is a very similar separation between the genders. John Banks is not favoured by either gender.

Occupational groups (with really small sample sizes) show a distinct preference to John Banks in service and sales workers and equal in blue collar. Neither group are strong local body voters. In the groups that do tend to vote, Len Brown has a solid lead.

The income sample appears to be over sampled at the higher and lower income levels. However, the best result for John Banks is in the lower economic groups and that is marginal below Len Brown. This is the income level least likely to vote in local body elections.

In the end, there is only one poll that actually counts. That is the vote late next year. However John Banks must be worried that he his best support is amongst the groups least likely to post their votes. That probably explains this observation by Brian Rudman :-

Mr Banks has tried to brush this setback aside, calling it a “shonky” survey by Labour Party pollsters and arguing that “no one really believes that a Labour candidate for the Auckland mayoralty can be that far ahead, with the National Party in Auckland 30 points ahead of Labour in every poll across Greater Auckland.”

But if that is so, why has he refused to reveal the results of his own polling “of 1500 people over two to three nights”. A survey conducted by the presumably non-shonky National Party pollster David Farrar.

Indeed!

The problem for John Banks is that he has strong name recognition. But he also has a very strong detestation ranking amongst people like myself. This is because, in my opinion, he is a do-nothing mayor who appears more concerned with where his mayoral car is parked than tackling the serious issues that Auckland has.

John Banks tenures in office have been marked more by a divide and rule approach to factionalism in the council and less by an ability to get the council working together. The extensive powers of the mayor under the super-city will mean that approach will grid-lock the decision making process in the city. This is a common perception across people who follow Auckland City local politics.

It appears that Len Browns decision to declare early is paying dividends. He is obviously picking up name recognition across the city. In April he was only on 6% to John Banks 17% amongst a wider group of possible candidates for Auckland mayor.

John Banks has usually won by encouraging people more liberal than himself to throw their hat into the ring and therefore splitting the vote to allow him to win. But so far this shows all the signs of being a two horse race. He must be praying that there is a split on the left/moderate vote. That appears to be one of the more stupid things that the left can do at present – but it has happened in the past.

There is a lot of work for the left to do between now and October 9th. There is 28% in the unsure, neither, and don’t know groups (not to mention the people who didn’t answer at all).

11 comments on “Good Xmas news for Auckland ”

  1. Bright Red 1

    interesting how Farrar had a piece on the UMR poll and the worst he could say about it was:

    “A UMR poll showed Len Brown ahead of John Banks in response to the question of who would be the better Mayor (which is not the same as asking who would you vote for). This has pushed his MAYOR.BROWN prices from the 30c average of recent months to a leading 45c. I think this is a bit optimistic at this stage. I purchased some Brown stocks early on for 15c as they were under valued at that price. At 45c I am very close to selling them.”

    which makes me think his polling data isn’t much different from UMR’s. If he had Banks in front, he would be selling Brown at 45c.

  2. tc 2

    Banks looks desperate already (on top of his general demeanor of buffoon) and fluff pieces like Holmes declaring his undying affection for the man and declaring he’s not running just enhance that ‘it’s all about me’ vibe coming from the banks camp.

    All that on top of some downright foolish initiatives like restricting drinking hours, extended parking times etc where he tries to shaft his subordinates if it all goes pear shaped.

    Dare I say it but at last the taxpayer/ratepayer gravy train that banks has ridden most of his life is at an end…….still with his full parliamentary pension intact.

    I find it all rather entertaining…….wait for the debates and folk will see how dim the man really is…..if he shows up which he mostly never does.

  3. Armchair Critic 3

    The elimination of democracy in Auckland continues unabated.
    The task of working out the roles of the community boards can not be scrutinised by the public through the select committee process, for example. Why? Because, according to Rodney, it is not his job.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10616728
    So he has delegated the responsibility to the ATA, a bunch of faceless technocrats with no real accountability to the public and no process for asking for or receiving feedback from the public. Undoubtedly the RC findings, which were roundly ignored elsewhere, will be sufficient for the ATA. Can’t wait to hear the “we don’t have enough time to consult on this” excuse rolled out.
    Oh, and coincidentally, the ATA just happens to be stacked with NACT appointees.
    Not a good outcome for democracy.

    • zelda 3.1

      “Democracy Under Attack” thundered the Herald

      • Armchair Critic 3.1.1

        LOL – the forecast is quite good, I haven’t found any source suggesting thunder anywhere.

        On a more serious note, at least Matt McCarten has had a go.
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10616545
        It is a shame that so many people write him off, I can’t help but agree with him on this one. Is it just that people are too busy looking for xmas presents and preparing for a few weeks off, or does no one give a damn?
        Democracy in Auckland is not just under attack, it is being reduced to a faint shadow.

        • Robert Winter 3.1.1.1

          Matt McCarten indeed ‘has had a go’. He correctly identifies the problem, but no differently from most people with any involvement in the Left in Auckland, and then suggests that the Greens are taking the lead in the opposition, which is one of the grander flights of fantasy.Mr Twyford must be quietly amused by this one-eyed view.

  4. tc 4

    Agree with AC….now can Goff and Co make enough mileage out of the shambles to unseat some Nat MP’s in 2011 to effect a change…..I think Hide’s gone for all money in Epsom if this unecessary and expensive running with scissors exercise is fully understood by the electorate.

    Or will the media assisted wool be pulled over the eyes as this could have been done without the massive extra cost the consulting/systems gravy train is causing

    When business centralises back office and reduces systems it saves money. Wodney’s managed to make it cost money….heaps of money…..genius !

  5. Alethios 5

    I think you’re being a bit unfair to banks when you call him a ‘do nothing’ mayor.

    He’s done plenty of things. Cutting funding for park services for instance, and wait for it… sewage. With luck we’ll be throwing our garbage out onto the street, paving the way for Banksies pet roading projects.

    He (amongst other things) is like the transport minister from Ben Elton’s ‘Gridlock’.

  6. starboard 6

    pfft..yeah rite…brown and bradford..imagine it…aucklanders arent that stupid…

  7. randal 7

    from down here south of Bombya it looks like Len is the one.
    Banks is too keen on selling everything off to his mates and erecting enclaves for the rich where he can direct spending to curry favour.

  8. BLiP 8

    Lets hope Bhatshitnagar keeps up his good work.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • EV road user charges bill passes
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April.  “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Bill targets illegal, unregulated fishing in international waters
    New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Reserve Bank appointments
    Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates.  Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Stronger protections for apartment owners
    Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Travel focused on traditional partners and Middle East
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend.    “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says.   Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Keep safe on our roads this Easter
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Cost of living support for over 1.4 million Kiwis
    About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Tenancy reviews for social housing restart
    Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary plan halted
    The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Cutting all that dam red tape
    Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track.  “Dam safety regulations ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Drought support extended to parts of North Island
    The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Passage of major tax bill welcomed
    The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Lifting economy through science, tertiary sectors
    Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government announces Budget priorities
    The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government to consider accommodation solution
    The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government approves extension to Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care
    Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says.                                         “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • $18m boost for Kiwis travelling to health treatment
    The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says.   “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM’s Prizes for Space to showcase sector’s talent
    The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Concerns conveyed to China over cyber activity
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government.     “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry
    Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function.  The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Brynderwyns open for Easter
    State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Infrastructure Funding & Financing Conference
    Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Parliamentary network breached by the PRC
    New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ to provide support for Solomon Islands election
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ-EU FTA gains Royal Assent for 1 May entry to force
    The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union.    “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • COVID-19 inquiry attracts 11,000 submissions
    Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says.  “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Families to receive up to $75 a week help with ECE fees
    Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Unlocking a sustainable, low-emissions future
    A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Chief of Army thanked for his service
    Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders
    25 March 2024 Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders Small Business, Manufacturing, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly will travel to Australia for a series of bi-lateral meetings and manufacturing visits. During the visit, Minister Bayly will meet with his Australian counterparts, Senator Tim Ayres, Ed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government commits nearly $3 million for period products in schools
    Government commits almost $3 million for period products in schools The Coalition Government has committed $2.9 million to ensure intermediate and secondary schools continue providing period products to those who need them, Minister of Education Erica Stanford announced today. “This is an issue of dignity and ensuring young women don’t ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech – Making it easier to build.
    Good morning, it’s great to be here.   First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning.  I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Pacific youth to shine from boost to Polyfest
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti has announced the Government’s commitment to the Auckland Secondary Schools Māori and Pacific Islands Cultural Festival, more commonly known as Polyfest. “The Ministry for Pacific Peoples is a longtime supporter of Polyfest and, as it celebrates 49 years in 2024, I’m proud to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 2024 Ngarimu VC and 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial Scholarships announced
    ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Breast Cancer Foundation – Insights Conference
    Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Kiwi research soars to International Space Station
    New Zealand has notched up a first with the launch of University of Canterbury research to the International Space Station, Science, Innovation and Technology and Space Minister Judith Collins says. The hardware, developed by Dr Sarah Kessans, is designed to operate autonomously in orbit, allowing scientists on Earth to study ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Planning Institute
    Introduction Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today and I’m sorry I can’t be there in person. Yesterday I started in Wellington for Breakfast TV, spoke to a property conference in Auckland, and finished the day speaking to local government in Christchurch, so it would have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Support for Northland emergency response centre
    The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed.  “Northland has faced a number ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Celebrating 20 years of Whakaata Māori
    New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Some commercial fishery catch limits increased
    Commercial catch limits for some fisheries have been increased following a review showing stocks are healthy and abundant, Ocean and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The changes, along with some other catch limit changes and management settings, begin coming into effect from 1 April 2024. "Regular biannual reviews of fish ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-03-29T05:15:48+00:00