Green Watch

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1. ScottGN 1

   20 September 2014 at 9:28 pm

   Where is the Green’s Party Vote Karol? They wanted 15%. They’re doing as bad or worse than Labour?
   • karol 1.1

     20 September 2014 at 9:31 pm

     They’re about the same as the GP in 2011 in the early stages.
   • weka 1.2

     20 September 2014 at 9:36 pm

     Scott, the GP will pick up more votes in the big city seats, whose votes come in last. They also do better in the specials because of hte overseas vote.
     • ScottGN 1.2.1

       20 September 2014 at 10:11 pm

       weka it won’t be enough. The left has taken a beating tonight. It’s time for a left to look to the centre to craft some sort of majority government.
       • weka 1.2.1.1

         20 September 2014 at 10:30 pm

         The GP look like they’re probably going to do the same as last election. They haven’t taken a beating.

         “It’s time for a left to look to the centre to craft some sort of majority government.”

         What does that mean?
         • ScottGN 1.2.1.1.1

           20 September 2014 at 10:40 pm

           IT MEANS FUCKING WINNING FOR A CHANGE!
           • weka 1.2.1.1.1.1

             20 September 2014 at 10:43 pm

             Dude, not need to shout at me. I don’t know if you mean form a govt with National, or what.
             • ScottGN …

               20 September 2014 at 10:47 pm

               I’m shouting at everybody right now weka, don’t take it personally. We, that is the left, have fucked this up royally.
2. Lanthanide 2

   20 September 2014 at 9:28 pm

   The 8:04pm votes are almost entirely the advance votes. Maybe you meant special votes?
   • karol 2.1

     20 September 2014 at 9:30 pm

     Yes.
3. Weepus beard 3

   20 September 2014 at 9:52 pm

   The Greens campaign was disappointing I thought.
   • karol 3.1

     20 September 2014 at 9:54 pm

     It was a good campaign. But it didn’t get much oxygen with everything else that was going on.

     Basically the result is looking like last time – 13 seats, maybe one more when the specials come in.
     • dave 3.1.1

       20 September 2014 at 10:35 pm

       we need to have a long discussion greens and labour and you guys in greens need to be part of it because we are screwing ourselves we all need to look at what the hell we are doing because it isnt working.
       • Matthew Whitehead 3.1.1.1

         20 September 2014 at 11:43 pm

         Sure, that, but I think also we were really hurt by the media focus and the rain on election day as well- factors outside our control, surely, but that’s just gonna mean that the campaign is going to have to focus on getting those advance votes in even stronger next election. (I have my fingers crossed for some sort of government-breaking scandal so we don’t have three more years of National trying to coast by on the Christchurch insurance bubble)
     • AmaKiwi 3.1.2

       21 September 2014 at 12:06 am

       Green’s hoardings were worthless. Visually cluttered. For passing motorists there was no clear image. No message.

       Sorry, folks. I like the policies and leaders. But you rely on hoardings and they are sh*t.

       Labour’s weren’t that much better. The hoarding had a smiling face and candidate name. I voted for him/her. Then it said, “Vote Positive.” I read the ballot twice but couldn’t find a party called “Positive.” So my party vote went to . . .
4. Sans Cle 4

   20 September 2014 at 10:39 pm

   Heavy heart. 🙁
5. Sanctuary 5

   20 September 2014 at 11:04 pm

   A disaster for the Greens, who have dragged Labour down with them. Association with the tree huggers and hippies has devastated Labour in the provinces.
   • thatguynz 5.1

     21 September 2014 at 1:59 am

     Oh bollocks. Try vice versa.
6. RedBaronCV 6

   20 September 2014 at 11:47 pm

   Look at the areas where Nact was pegged back to 40% around wgtn greens and labour both shared in that.
7. Matthew Whitehead 7

   20 September 2014 at 11:49 pm

   That’s an interesting view on it, Sanctuary. The Greens have pretty much stayed static in their vote, but Labour’s tanked dramatically, even when compared with last election. Not sure if it’s fair to blame it on the Greens when Labour’s ideas have basically been “oh, we’d mostly do things like the Nats are, but with a few changes and a somewhat decent tax system.”

   That’s not what people vote for. People will vote for Labour when they come up with their own principles and narratives and sell those to the electorate. The Capital Gains tax is actually a good example of that- it made sense, the public didn’t poll well on it at first, but Labour has actually made the idea popular because it wasn’t afraid of the debate. They need to do this in all areas of policy, not just on tax, and come up with as many points of difference as they can sell to the public.

   I think also they need to come up with a good way to sell themselves in a country that’s very anti-intellectual, and Labour’s emphasis on policy actually hurts it to some degree in the public perception because they’re seen as academics who don’t understand the real world, despite actually being much better at understanding it than the National Party.

   Now, if Labour can sort it’s problems out, it’s likely to have a flow-on effect to the Left in general. Or they can keep stagnating and the Greens will eat up their entire left flank and eventually form the core of the next opposition. One of those two things.

   edit: this was meant to be in reply to post five, must have clicked that off by accident.
   • AmaKiwi 7.1

     21 September 2014 at 12:13 am

     Polls forecast he Greens would get 14%. They got 10%, which is almost a third LESS than predicted.

     3 years of hard work, regularly intelligently attacking National, developing some excellent policies. And they barely beat Winston Peters’ one-man show.

     A tragic result.
     • weka 7.1.1

       21 September 2014 at 12:16 am

       The GP will probably increase slightly on the Special Votes. I think they always get less on the day than they poll. I’m guessing they lost some votes to IMP.
       • alwyn 7.1.1.1

         21 September 2014 at 8:31 am

         It would be hard for them to have “lost some votes to IMP” when you consider the fact that IMP got about the same number of votes as Mana got by themselves last time.
         I suspect that the Green Party may have lost some votes because of Norman’s ill-considered, and unexplained visits to Kim Dotcom at his mansion. To call on him repeatedly, and not be able to explain why, looks rather odd, particularly when it is followed up with statements about refusing extradition of Dotcom if the Green Party were in power.
         People really don’t like the man, as Hone’s loss shows. Why did Norman go near the tar-baby that is KDC?
         • karol 7.1.1.1.1

           21 September 2014 at 8:41 am

           The link between Norman and KDC was short lived in the MSM. The reason Norman went there was to try to convince KDC not to split the left vote with a new party.

           KDC took some of the oxygen from the left in the campaign. Whether it hurt the potential Green vote, I have no idea.

           The Greens held their vote from last time. The problem seems to have been people likely to vote left weren’t mobilised to vote.

           I suspect that the KDC top down approach is not the way to mass mobilise the grass roots. Only a bottom up grass roots campaign will do that.
           • alwyn 7.1.1.1.1.1

             21 September 2014 at 9:02 am

             “The Greens held their vote from last time” you say.
             That is pushing things a bit isn’t it?
             The Green Party vote, on election night, dropped from 10.62% to 10.02%. It doesn’t sound very much but it is a decline of 6% of their vote.
             Labour dropped from 27.13 to 24.69, which sounds much, much worse but is only a drop of 9% of their vote.
             I think that both parties slumped badly and I’m also sure you would agree that 10% is nothing like the 15% that was being proposed by the party leaders.
   • weka 7.2

     21 September 2014 at 12:23 am

     “People will vote for Labour when they come up with their own principles and narratives and sell those to the electorate.”

     I agree. However I have to wonder how much the superannuation age rise affected their vote.
     • phillip ure 7.2.1

       21 September 2014 at 7:23 am

       re super age..

       i think if you mapped those occaisons when this dead-duck/vote-killing policy was wheeled/shouted out..

       ..the polling for that period will show labour dropping again..

       ..i think the raising super policy was the one that turned labours’ traditional base off..

       ..+ labours’ vow to do nothing for the childless-poor poorest..

       ..it escapes me how these two were meant to appeal to ‘the missing million’..
8. Beasely petes 8

   21 September 2014 at 12:27 am

   15% this site was saying.

   [lprent: No it wasn’t. Banned for 2 weeks for the stupidity of saying that a computer has an opinion. Read the policy. ]
9. Ron 9

   21 September 2014 at 12:35 am

   I was disappointed when Holly dropped off the Green list at last minute. What went wrong there was she pushed or what?
   • karol 9.1

     21 September 2014 at 8:21 am

     She dropped off a while back. It wasn’t last minute.
     • Lindsey 9.1.1

       21 September 2014 at 8:51 am

       Yet she was still on the ballot paper and how many people voted for her? What is the “reasoning” behind that?
10. expat 10

    21 September 2014 at 6:04 am

    Lynn, calm down.
11. Karen 11

    21 September 2014 at 8:49 am

    I feel really sad for the Greens. They had the best policies, the best slogan, and the best candidate list IMO, but they made a huge mistake with their billboards. They were cluttered, hard to read and hard to understand. The message was obscure, and while this may have appealed to their staunch supporters, they were never going to pick up many more votes with these billboards, or with their mostly negative advertisements.

    I also think Russel’s attempt to attract blue-greens was both poorly timed and a big turn off for many potential supporters.

    The Greens are not responsible for the collapse in Labour’s support, however, and the reasons for that are far more complex. I hope Labour and the Greens start working together to thwart an extraordinarily biased media. The left needs to get smarter, and find a way to coordinate exposure of Nat corruption and to expose all the lies being promulgated by the right.
    • Chooky 11.1

      21 September 2014 at 6:10 pm

      +100
12. sabine 12

    21 September 2014 at 9:22 am

    i am actually very miffed at the greens at the moment.

    they got us
    Dunne by a vote of 930 ….if greens would have voted for Anderson Virigina he would be retired by now.

    and lost us
    Jacintha Ardern by a vote of 647 ….if greens would have voted for her strategically she would have had it.

    one can say about the right what one wishes to, but they did vote strategically and they won.

    the left has to learn a lot. but I am sure that all the Greens will bathe in the light of green purity.

    oh well they can create another cycle way of national importance working well together with National.
    • Lindsey 12.1

      21 September 2014 at 9:32 am

      And add to that the fact that half the Green voters in Hutt South gave their Electorate vote to the Green candidate who had actually withdrawn from the race but who was still on the ballot paper.
    • karol 12.2

      21 September 2014 at 9:37 am

      It’s not what the Greens did. it’s what some voters chose to do.

      The Greens have consistently campaign for the party vote. They stand candidates in electorates to help with that.

      I have talked to a couple of voters in recent weeks who do not understand that it is the party vote that determines the number of seats a party gets in the House.

      Many in the electorate still need to be educated on MMP.
      • sabine 12.2.1

        21 September 2014 at 9:47 am

        Carol, if the Greens would have supported the labour candidate in Ohuria, dunne would be retired.
        and Auckland Central would now be a labour electorate.

        Party vote is one thing, Candidate vote another.
        The national voters had no issue supporting the Act Goon in Epsom to get the result they wanted.

        granted it would not have changed the outcome, but it would have shown a resolve, a sign that the left parties can work together and will.

        but yes I am sure that the country will need a new cycle way.
      • Karen 12.2.2

        21 September 2014 at 9:50 am

        Even people who seem to be politically involved still don’t seem to understand how MMP works. I am absolutely astounded by the level of ignorance out there.
        I cannot imagine what those people who voted for the Labour candidate and then ticked National for the party vote were thinking, and that happened in most of the electorates Labour won.
        • sabine 12.2.2.1

          21 September 2014 at 10:09 am

          I can actually understand that.

          in my electorate our Labour Candidate won, Phil Twyford. And if you have met Alfred Ngaro his opponent you would know why he did not get there.

          Likeability has a lot to do. Outreach also. Phil was out every day, come rain and shine, while Alfred just came across as an entitled prick, who lives in Panmure!

          so while people might have voted for Phil to look after Te Atatu South, they will still vote National, cause they are part of the ownership society.
          Another thing that has changed are the new boundaries. If you look at Te Atatu South there is quite a bit of Helensville that has moved into this electorate. Traditionally Nat voters (they lovs them some J.K.)

          so yea, peeps might vote for “their” candidate and ‘their’ party.
    • Chooky 12.3

      21 September 2014 at 6:13 pm

      Sabine +100…strategic tribal stupidity on the part of the Greens in Ohuria and Auckland Central…they couldnt have hoped to have won those seats….so why not let the Labour Party and Left coalition have them?
      • Disraeli Gladstone 12.3.1

        21 September 2014 at 6:32 pm

        Two things.

        A:
        How quick people have gone to calling the voters “stupid” really doesn’t bode well. We absolutely cannot blame the voters (be them Green voters or centrist National voters). It’ll only turn them off more. We can’t throw our hands in the air and say “you get the government you deserve”. That is such poison and will lead to worse results.

        B:
        Why did Labour need to rely on Greens voter to beat an out-of-date void of nothingness (Dunne)? It’s not the Greens’ fault that Labour can’t win seats anymore on their own.
13. BenM 13

    21 September 2014 at 8:22 pm

    It was a disappointing result for the Greens, but look on the bright side. The fact that we regard 10.02% of the party vote as disappointing just shows how far the Greens have come. Less than a decade ago they wouldn’t have even dreamed of getting anywhere near that.

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