Guest post – Bridges is done, who can save National?
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- Date published:
7:58 am, April 24th, 2020 - 115 comments
Categories: national, politicans, same old national, Simon Bridges -
Tags: covid-19, Covid19
Guest post by Clint Smith who is a former Labour Party staffer and Ministerial Advisor who served during the 2011, 2014, and 2017 elections, and early contributor to The Standard. He now runs Victor Strategy and Communications.
I know what it’s like to be where National is now. Three elections in a row, I served as a staffer in the Leader of the Opposition’s office, and watched our dreams of victory turn to ash as the polls turned south in election year, just as they have for National during the COVID crisis.
Like the Labour leaders who couldn’t overcome John Key, Simon Bridges is simply unable to match it with Jacinda Ardern. Internal polls from both National and Labour show National is polling below 35%, with the Government parties over 60%.
The best outcome in this situation is your leader falls on his sword and the party appoints a charismatic world class leader who sweeps you to victory.
Unfortunately, not every party has a Jacinda waiting in the wings.
So what does National do?
If you’re a National MP, you can tell yourself the polls will get better for your party: as the COVID crisis recedes and economic conditions worsen those voters will swing back to National. But there’s another scenario that I saw play out three times for Labour, and happened to National in 2002: the poll slump becomes self-reinforcing. Voters might write National off and begin to look to minor parties that could limit Labour’s power, or they just jump on the winning bandwagon.
At the end of the day, an MP has to look at the polling in front on them, and on current numbers, the junior quarter to a third of National MPs face losing their seats in Parliament, and many senior MPs face losing their treasured electorates and going on the list.
If you’re a National MP and you don’t have a solid blue electorate, you’re feeling nervous right now. And you’re open to solutions.
Carrying on with Bridges isn’t going to work. He has consistently shown that, when the situation demands statesmanship, he delivers petty politics. He was unpopular before COVID. His outbursts during the crisis have only worsened his reputation.
But who would want to take the leadership now – with disastrously low polling against a Prime Minister who has guided the country through crisis?
Well, Jacinda Ardern did it and, actually, there’s no better time.
The COVID crisis has seen voters rally to the Government at National’s expense. Some of those voters will inevitably go back to National as the crisis wanes, and the economic impact builds. A new National leader would see themselves buoyed by this incoming tide, and would probably get an initial boost simply by dint of not being as unpopular as Bridges.
Any new leader will have a struggle to win the election against Jacinda Ardern at the height of her power, but expectations of winning will be low. So, if they’re seen to have at least saved their caucus mates’ jobs by lifting the vote from its current abysmal low, they will get to hold on to the leadership post-election and have another crack in 2023. If they don’t act now and let Bridges take the blame for defeat, they might face a wider pool of competitors for the leadership, including Chris Luxon, post-election.
The conditions for a leadership change are ripe – a caucus nervous for their jobs, polls at a probable nadir, and motivation for aspirants to act before the election.
But who?
It needs to be someone National’s caucus can stomach.
That rules out Judith Collins. She’s popular with the wider party and voters, and has a strong media brand but is not seen as a team player. There’s evidence to suggest she may even be the one driving the coup talk coming from inside National. If so, she’s destined to the fate of Peter Dutton – starting the spill but without the numbers to win. She could only muster a handful of caucus votes last time she tried for the leadership.
It also rules out Nikki Kaye who, while electable, is the most leftwing National MP and would need serious changes to National’s policy platform to be credible.
It needs to be someone who can take on Jacinda Ardern in terms of star power and with the ability to carve out a media niche.
That rules out the slew of nice and competent but rather dull men – Todd Muller, Mark Mitchell, Paul Goldsmith etc – who couldn’t light up a room if you put 10,000 volts through them.
Of the lot, Todd Muller is the most credible potential leader and he has economic credentials, which will need to be a big part of National’s message post-COVID. But he’s got low electability with no public profile to speak of, and is seen as a proponent of primary industry, rather than the new, sustainable economy.
This only really leaves Paula Bennett. Yeah, she’s got a lot of baggage – and I mean a lot of baggage. But she also has popularity within her caucus and the public. She’s liberal but not overly so. She’s got a big brand, a working-class backstory, and name recognition already. And she knows how to make a splash.
She’s got economic experience as former Associate Finance Minister, which could be bolstered by having Goldsmith or Muller as her Deputy.
With her flashy style and tendency to go too over the top, she may not be anyone’s first choice, but Paula Bennett could be the compromise most National MPs can back.
Bennett has been positioning herself for this moment for some time. As Bridges has stumbled, she’s been softening her public image: cutting back on the cutting remarks (no more ‘zip it, sweetie’), dropping arrogance for a more humble and friendly persona, and appearing in the women’s magazines over summer. She’s been appointed National’s campaign manager, so she’s already at the centre of election planning.
Now could be the moment Paula Bennett has been preparing for. There won’t be a better chance to save National from the Bridges disaster, give it a fighting chance at the election, and secure the leadership for the next term.
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- Landlord Government leaves little hope for rentersThe Government’s announcement on tenancy rules prove that it does not care about renters. ...1 week ago
- Opportunity to build a more sustainable economyGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...1 week ago
- Significant step forward in fixing cruel and unjust pastA significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...1 week ago
- Missed opportunity but NZ will surely one day recognise the right to a sustainable environmentNew Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...1 week ago
- Release: Don’t cut our lunches – clear message sent to GovernmentTens of thousands of people are demanding the Government commits to fully funding free and healthy school lunches. ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt makes U-turn on Suicide Prevention OfficeLabour welcomes the Government’s U-turn on the closure of the Suicide Prevention Office, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...1 week ago
- CCC issues warning over further climate delayToday’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...2 weeks ago
- Luxon targets lame and lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...2 weeks ago
- Luxon targets are lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Commitment to disability communities missing from Govt prioritiesMinister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Methane target review is dangerous duplicationThe Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government must commit to school building project for disabled studentsThe Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: National must take mental health seriouslyMental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...2 weeks ago
- Referendums for Māori wards a racist step backwardsThe Government's imposed referendum on Māori wards is a racist step backwards for Māori representation, and disregards Te Tiriti o Waitangi. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Job losses at Health not worth it for tax cutsNew Zealand will feel the harm of the National Government’s reckless cuts to jobs at the health ministry for generations, says Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Press release: No Māori initiatives in Government’s nothing planMāori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Social housing off Government’s to-do listThe Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Less money in most people’s pockets this AprilChanges to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...3 weeks ago
- Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...30 mins ago - Judicial appointments announcedAttorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...1 hour ago
- Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in SingaporeEducation Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...2 hours ago
- Value of stopbank project proven during cycloneA stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...2 hours ago
- Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visitForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...3 hours ago
- Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac DayScience, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...5 hours ago
- Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the PhilippinesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...16 hours ago
- Government commits $20m to Westport flood protectionThe Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...22 hours ago
- Taupō takes pole positionThe Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...23 hours ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeownersLocal Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...1 day ago
- Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...1 day ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...1 day ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...1 day ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...1 day ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...2 days ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...2 days ago
- Inflation coming down, but more work to doToday’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...2 days ago
- School attendance restored as a priority in health adviceRefreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...2 days ago
- Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sectorOceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...2 days ago
- Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International CongressAssociate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...3 days ago
- Removing red tape to help early learners thriveThe Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...3 days ago
- RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tapeChanges to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...3 days ago
- McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationshipTrade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...3 days ago
- Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister LeePrime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...4 days ago
- PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ tiesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...4 days ago
- Antarctica New Zealand Board appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...4 days ago
- Finance Minister travels to Washington DCFinance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...4 days ago
- Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlordsThe coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...4 days ago
- Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being consideredState Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...4 days ago
- New Zealand condemns Iranian strikesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...5 days ago
- Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plansHundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...7 days ago
- Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand ChairHealth Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...7 days ago
- Roads of National Significance planning underwayThe NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...1 week ago
- Navigating an unstable global environmentNew Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...1 week ago
- NZ welcomes Australian Governor-GeneralPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...1 week ago
- Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for WinterAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...1 week ago
- NZ and the US: an ever closer partnershipNew Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...1 week ago
- Joint US and NZ declarationApril 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...1 week ago
- NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperationForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research. “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...1 week ago
- Government redress for Te Korowai o WainuiāruaThe Government is continuing the bipartisan effort to restore its relationship with iwi as the Te Korowai o Wainuiārua Claims Settlement Bill passed its first reading in Parliament today, says Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. “Historical grievances of Te Korowai o Wainuiārua relate to 19th century warfare, land purchased or taken ...1 week ago
- I wholeheartedly recommend The President: a brilliant revival of a play of decay, terror and revulsi...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney Daniel Boud/Sydney Theatre Company Decay, terror, revulsion. These are three of the central themes of Thomas Bernhard’s rarely performed play The President. The Austrian is one of the greatest ...22 mins ago - How the coolest little capital is shrinking
It's not the first time a government has targeted public servants for job cuts, but this time Wellington is really feeling it. ...36 mins ago - Ministers accused of Cabinet Manual breach with threats to Waitangi Tribunal
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says threats by ministers Shane Jones and David Seymour to reform or close down the Waitangi Tribunal were “ill-considered”, as legal experts say the ministers may have breached Cabinet Manual conventions. “I think those comments are ill-considered and we expect all ministers to actually exercise good ...37 mins ago - Many prisoners go years without touching a smartphone. It means they struggle to navigate life on th...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ye In (Jane) Hwang, Postdoctoral Research Associate at School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock You’d be hard pressed to find any aspect of daily life that doesn’t require some form of digital literacy. We need only to look back ten ...37 mins ago
- Good news: midlife health is about more than a waist measurement. Here’s whySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Newton, Professor of Exercise Medicine, Edith Cowan University Pexels/RDNE stock project You’re not in your 20s or 30s anymore and you know regular health checks are important. So you go to your GP. During the appointment they measure your waist. ...37 mins ago
- The Friday Poem: ‘Mitochondrial Problem’ by Evangeline Riddiford Graham
A new poem by Evangeline Riddiford Graham. Mitochondrial Problem I. It was long drive to Kansas for the man and his dog but you have to understand he said She doesn’t fly. Which calls to mind not carsick shitting barking or whining but a dog who chooses not to as ...40 mins ago - The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending April 18The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38) Hot off the press, this debut ...41 mins ago
- Department of Conservation closing Dunedin centre, but no jobs lostVisitor habits are changing and DOC needs to adapt in a financially sustainable way, its operations director says. ...44 mins ago
- Unions Collaborate With Thousands Of Job Cuts
With New Zealand officially in recession, a swathe of mass sackings is currently sending shockwaves through the entire working class. ...53 mins ago - Watch live: Christopher Luxon speaks to media in ManilaPrime Minister Christopher Luxon is speaking to reporters in Manila after pledging greater defence cooperation with the Philippines. Watch live. ...1 hour ago
- Government sent please explain letter to Wellington City Council over transport disagreementThe contents were revealed in correspondence from Simeon Brown and Chris Bishop to Wellington's Mayor. ...2 hours ago
- Some families push back against journalists who mine social media for photos – they have every rig...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Wajnryb McDonald, PhD candidate in Criminology, University of Sydney Less than 24 hours after Ashlee Good was murdered in Bondi Junction, her family released a statement requesting the media take down photographs they had reproduced of Ashlee and her family without ...2 hours ago
- Mental Health Foundation staff cuts loom, with funding falling behind rising costsChief executive Shaun Robinson said it has not had any government funding cut, but government-funded contracts have not kept pace with rising costs. ...2 hours ago
- The ‘devil comet’ 12P/Pons-Brooks has finally become visible from Australia. What can we expect?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland Pons–Brooks visible from Utah, March 9 2024. James Peirce/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND If you’re a fan of all things space, you’ve doubtless heard about the “devil comet”, which has been captivating keen-eyed observers in the ...2 hours ago
- Rugby stadiums are sold as an economic asset – but NZ needs to ask if they’re really worth itSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Hamlin, Senior Lecturer in Marketing , University of Otago A multi-billion dollar stadium precinct has been proposed for Auckland, one of three proposals in front of Auckland Council for a new stadium in the city. The council is also considering revamping ...2 hours ago
- Auckland dog attacks: Callouts for attacks on other animals going upRoaming dogs are responsible for more than a thousand attacks on animals each year, and the number is growing. ...3 hours ago
- What access to puberty blockers means for trans young people and their whānauThe Ministry of Health has delayed the release of its evidence brief on the safety, reversibility and mental health and wellbeing outcomes for puberty blockers. While we wait, Julia de Bres speaks to those with firsthand experience. Best practice gender-affirming healthcare is based on trans people’s self-determination and agency. The ...3 hours ago
- NZ and Philippines pledge defence cooperation amid rising tensionsThe commitment came after a sit-down meeting between Christopher Luxon and President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Romualdez Marcos Jr overnight. ...4 hours ago
- How superblocks can help reimagine city lifeBarcelona’s city streets have gone from traffic-clogged to pedestrian-friendly. How? Superblocks. Ellen Rykers explains. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week I read a great interview with renowned urbanist Janette Sadik-Khan by The Spinoff’s Wellington editor Joel MacManus: “You can reimagine streets, ...4 hours ago
- Fire engineering expertise may take a big hit with job cuts at MBIEThe public sector cuts are poised to take out a big chunk of expertise at the country's building regulator. ...5 hours ago
- “Fast-track Law To Kill Kiwi”: Students Say Fight Against Anti-democracy Legislation Is Only Jus...Student groups ‘Climate Action VUW’, Schools Strike 4 Climate and VUWSA will be on the street in Wellington today, the last day for submissions on the Fast-track Approvals Bill, with a message that the fight against the Government’s ‘War on ...5 hours ago
- ‘We have thousands of Modis’: the secret behind the BJP’s enduring success in IndiaSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University Since 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has grown exponentially – and so has the formidable organisational machine of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a ...6 hours ago
- Online schooling is not just for lockdowns. Could it work for your child?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Associate Professor of Education (Adjunct) & Senior Manager (BCE), Charles Sturt University During COVID almost all Australian students and their families experienced online learning. But while schools have long since gone back to in-person teaching, online learning has not gone ...6 hours ago
- Hear me out: You can shove your reusable period productsYes, they’re better for the environment. No, that’s not a good enough reason for me to use them. Once every 26 days or so, my period arrives, and if struck by an act of God, I am caught red-crotched without products. How, after 17 years of this, do I still ...6 hours ago
- Rip It Up And Start Over – Fast-Track Approvals Bill Needs To Be Scrapped“It will cause significant harm to our environment and communities. It is completely at odds with New Zealanders’ relationship with nature and our need for a low-carbon, sustainable economic future." ...6 hours ago
- Maori Authority Warns Government On Fast Track LegislationThe Chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki, has warned a Parliamentary Select Committee that fast-tracking legislation is a perilous practice that undermines the core tenets of democracy, transparency, and accountability. ...6 hours ago
- Why the government’s haste in changing the health system could come back to haunt itSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Associate Professor, Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Since coming into power, the coalition government has adopted a simple but shrewd see-how-fast-we-can-move political strategy. However, in the health sector this need for speed entails ...6 hours ago
- Many suicides are related to gambling. How can we tackle this problem?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Hronis, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney Darya Sannikova/Pexels Whether you’re watching TV, attending a footy game, or eating a meal at your local pub, gambling is hard to escape. Although the rise of gambling is not unique to Australia, ...6 hours ago
- Things that go buzz in the night – our global study found there really are more insects out after ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Wong, Forrest Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia Have you ever wondered if there are more insects out at night than during the day? We set out to answer this question by combing through the scientific ...6 hours ago
- Why don’t Australians talk about their salaries? Pay transparency and fairness go hand-in-handSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol T Kulik, Research Professor, University of South Australia IR Stone/Shutterstock In Australia, it’s not the done thing to know – let alone ask – what our colleagues are paid. Yet, it’s easy to see how pay transparency can make pay ...6 hours ago
- ‘Character’ And Its Impact On Immigration StatusThe Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is sounding a warning to migrants, that running foul of the law may see them leaving the country prematurely. ...6 hours ago
- 20,000 more on jobseeker benefits than this time last yearThe government’s plan to get 50,000 people off jobseeker support by 2030 has had a rocky start, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Beneficiary numbers are up – and so are ...8 hours ago
- All of the Raglan Roast cafes in Wellington, ranked from worst to bestRaglan Roast is a staple of Wellington coffee culture. But with five branches across the capital, which one is the best? I am a die-hard Raglan Roast fan. It’s consistently the most affordable cafe in Wellington, and one of the only places you can get a coffee after 3pm. So, ...10 hours ago
- Auckland uni students threaten rent strike over rising accommodation feesResidents of University of Auckland halls are being urged to withhold their accommodation fees from May 1, in a bid to force the university to take student concerns over rent hikes seriously. The University of Auckland is facing a strike from students over the cost of on-campus accommodation. The Students ...10 hours ago
- Warning of death from a million cuts as Oceans Secretariat dissolvedShane Jones says people voted for change, but opponents say small cuts such as ending a special oceans secretariat are starting to add up The post Warning of death from a million cuts as Oceans Secretariat dissolved appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Defence deal to counter Beijing’s aggression in South China SeaNew Zealand and the Philippines have signed a new maritime security agreement and stated their concerns over activity in the South China Sea, as Chinese vessels continue to flout international law. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos committed to signing a Mutual Logistics Supporting Arrangement by ...10 hours ago
- Wellington’s ebb and flow of public servantsThe thousands of government “back-office” job cuts are causing widespread pain in the capital city. In today’s episode of The Detail, we speak to three journalists and a think tank researcher, looking at the larger picture around the cuts and what effect it will have on Wellington, a city that’s ...10 hours ago
- New Zealand transport planning has gone off the railsOpinion: The famed American architect and urban designer Daniel Burnham once said, “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood!” Burnham wouldn’t have been referring to the transport plans in Aotearoa New Zealand over the past five years; projects so big they hadn’t the credibility to ...10 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Friday 19 AprilThe post Daily crossword, Friday 19 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Brakes on transport and logistics sector as demand for freight slowsThe transport sector is currently in the slow lane The post Brakes on transport and logistics sector as demand for freight slows appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 19 AprilLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 19 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Financial literacy should be on all of usOpinion: With maths understanding at 42 percent for Year 8 students, there’s no doubt something has to be done. But how? The post Financial literacy should be on all of us appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Missy rustles to stardom in CanadaHineaupounamu ‘Missy’ Nuku has been scaling mountains in Canada for her college basketball team, the Lakeland Rustlers. Alberta is currently home for the 20-year-old point guard, who is in her first year of a scholarship at Lakeland College, where she is studying for a business degree. She has certainly made ...10 hours ago
- Emissions fall again – now NZ needs to up the paceOfficial figures confirm New Zealand produced less climate pollution in 2022 than in any other year in the 21st century The post Emissions fall again – now NZ needs to up the pace appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Grattan on Friday: Ethnic tensions will complicate the Albanese government’s multicultural policy ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra When ASIO boss Mike Burgess delivered his annual threat assessment earlier this year, he stressed the rising danger posed by espionage and foreign interference. “In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed ...15 hours ago
- Group plans work to improve safety of female MPsNew research shows harassment of elected officials - especially women - is on the rise. ...17 hours ago
- Ukraine warns of WW3 ahead of long-stalled Congress aid voteUkraine's Prime Minister says his country desperately needs the US to approve long-stalled security assistance. ...18 hours ago
- PSA astonished Education Minister expects hiring of contractors to review curriculumHiring contractors is an appalling solution when people who could do the work are losing their jobs, the PSA says. ...19 hours ago
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Hang in there Simon the country needs you right where you are.
"baggage – and I mean a lot of baggage"
what do you think the MSM will do with that?
Lost all credibility when he started touting Paula's economic abilities
He clearly is not. He is saying that for National Party purposes Bennett can point out she has had economic experience. This post is about an internal popularity contest within National not on who would make a good PM.
Internal popularity with the other eye on public perception….if youre looking to hold on to your seat internal popularity is not the measure
The current talent pool is rather shallow … Bennett must be up there in terms of likely Bridge replacements.
Agree talent pool is very shallow (at least in terms of public recognition) but would suggest Bennet would attract even less support for National than Collins (and thats saying something)…whomever has the job come election time has to be ready to take one for the team or be ready to wait 3 years to have a real shot at the job….and that precludes an awful lot of the candidates…Bridges likely to remain by default.
I would've thought they'd go with Collins because it'll deal with her leadership obsession, while at the same time test the public's response toward her which is difficult to judge – it could go either way, in the short term anyway – and keeps Luxon's powder dry. But I guess caucus being unable to stomach her trumps all of that, which doesn't matter too much because thankfully Bennett's well capable of doing just as good a job as Bridges.
"Bennett's well capable of doing just as good a job as Bridges." Damned with faint praise. I think she'd be even worse than Bridges: she's far more stupid, for one thing.
It ain't faint praise. I think you're giving Bridges too much credit. I meant as doing just as good a job of stuffing things up.
None of this has gone away…makeover or not.
https://www.noted.co.nz/currently/currently-politics/why-paula-bennett-is-trouble-for-the-national-party
and then theres Winston.
That piece from Graham Adams is marvellous. Please make it Paula:
"Being the bogans’ darling in leopard-skin prints who’s tough on beneficiaries obviously holds a certain appeal to her Upper Harbour electorate, but not knowing the details of your portfolios is pretty limiting for an ambitious, high-flying politician."
"…someone should encourage her to stop the endless humble-bragging. In an interview shortly after being voted in as Deputy Prime Minister in December she said: “When I was a 17-year-old solo mum holding a baby, I never thought I would be here [in Parliament], let alone deputy Prime Minister.”
"This month, she praised New Zealand as a country that would give people second chances. “New Zealand is so remarkable — it gives people second chances. How else can someone like me who was a single mother at 17, dream of being the Deputy Prime Minister of the country?”
"Bennett humblebrags so often I expect her at some point to break into song and a tap-dance routine: “Golly gosh! Who would have thought little old me would be so successful?”. But if she is genuinely surprised at her own rise, she’s not alone. Honestly, so are we, and her own professions of wonderment at her advancement only pour fuel onto everyone else’s — especially given her woeful performance in the social housing portfolio, which has helped give New Zealand the worst homelessness figures in the OECD."
'She’s got economic experience as former Associate Finance Minister,'
You're forgetting about her experience as the Minister for Climate Change,that is more relevant.
She will attract votes from the …Greens.
Bennett’s knowledge of CC was zero. Her promotion to minister was a measure of the Nat govt's disinterest in the subject. After all, it didn't make money so why bother about it. I would think half the National caucus at least were still deniers at that time.
This is one of the least credible and most laughable posts I have ever seen on TS.
Que? Reread it. It is not extolling Bennett’s abilities it is commenting on how it is likely she is positioning herself for the job.
My suggestion is to reread it with micky's comments in mind and taking into account that this is political analysis of how political party's manage leadership issues. If you think there is something off about the analysis, then make your case. Taking no content potshots at posts isn't what we're here for.
I was laughing at the Nat's lineup.
So, you're saying Bennett is honing her lying skills and improving her bullshit mask so she can win an election. Of course then after winning, will freely ditch her fake persona and re-emerge as the cold evil bitch she really is. You media manipulating communication guys get it all worked out in advance. What a shitty outcome for us all if Bennett sleazes her way in.
Thank God Jacinda kept herself from being too corrupted and remains a human.
Unlike Key, Bennett, Bridges, Collins etc, who are just those little shit fish that flit around the mouths and eat the scraps from big whales.
"What a shitty outcome for us all if Bennett sleazes her way in."
As opposed to who? National have to have a leader.
True. And at this point, you could draw a smiley face on a watermelon and it'd be more popular than Bridges.
Could happen @ Weks.
Not that we get in the say in the matter of who is the next leader of the gNats, but if she does sleeze her way in (a distinct poss), and given that I'm relatively confident of legitimate erections thus far – lil ' ole Nu Zull that punches above its weight will get the representation it deserves.
If we ever went to electronic voting, or postal voting – all bets are off, OR if various other bits happens – the risks of which I think JA is probably aware of.
And not someone given to hero worship – no matter their politics or various persuasions – que ser bloody ra sera.
It may be, and probably is that we'll have to see things get a bit worse before they get better, and unfortunately a big reason is that what we now know as the 'collective left" aren't able to get their shit together.
That is of course unless Labour and its detergent partners agree to be kind and transformational – both with themselves and those they are purporting to represent.
Paula Bennett is in fact a very nasty person. There's dishonest calculation in the softening of her image by doing the dozen or so magazine covers in the last 12 months.
If she's the answer, what was the question?
Not a bad strategy piece by the author though, egging her on to inevitable destruction.
The question was probably ' Do we have plan B?' from hollow man central to which the reply came ' Paula, we've had her in the softener…'.
You can guess as to the responses, a mix of 'noooo' right through to 'wtf not, they're both toast after this election anyway.'
Yes, Bennett as leader of the nats is good for the left in the same way Collins would've been and as good as Bridges has been. The telling flaws in those of their ilk often aren't obvious to most until they become leader. Up until then the public are duped into thinking "I really want to hand it to Paula, she's worked hard all her life and I really admire that". Same with Collins and her ridiculous 'toughness', but if either of them became leader the flaws would show up. With Collins it's her inability to stay in control on her feet and her inevitable sink into nasty and un-thought-out loose-cannon remarks that expose her true self. The public's caught on to what makes Bridges' tick and the same will happen to Bennett and Collins once the spotlight's on them.
Bridges has had long enough to unlearn his mistake but still hasn't changed. Safe to say he either won't or can't.
The public have seen enough even if Chris Trotter thinks there's life there still.
Its a bait and switch move I am wagering that they intend Mark Mitchell for the job. drop him in at the last moment before general public realize just how horrible he is
The general public should realize just how horrible he is but also realiz4 that he clearly doesn't have that on his own in that sad bunch. Of Bennett my old mum would say "She's a really nasty piece of work that one." And she'd be right.
The irony is that with the women' magazines down the tubes Bennett can't go on a full charm offensive. She'll simply have to rely on, well, being offensive.
There are still plenty of glossy mags she can throw herself at.
This post says exactly what I've been saying and thinking for a long time now. Bennett has been entirely focused on this and will not be sidelined. Her preparations, described well by Clint, have been endorsed all along by the National Party "mechanics".
I've been thinking the same. Can't come up with any other explanation for her unlikely transformation from Westie bogan to blue-rinse conservative.
That deliberate transformation in style makes her way more acceptable to the coifed matrons who are a power bloc inside the party machinery.
If the Nat caucus is only looking for someone better than hapless Simon to carry them through until 2021, she may have the votes. Does anyone recall who is in her faction?
And her minders have kept her out of the limelight for a while now no doubt to reduce the chances of her stuffing things up.
Agreed.
What hasn't been mentioned is that she will be packaged by the Nats as their answer to Jacinda Ardern – good appearance, dresses well (too flamboyant for me) nice smile and well practiced in the art of touchy-feely communication – yes we know its genuine with Jacinda but Paula can turn it on when needed. Many people will not appreciate the difference and their strategists will be right.
It will save them from a massive defeat at election time and next year or the year afterward, Luxon will be ready to take over and do a John Key.
Always a good idea to put yourself in the place of your opponent/opponents and figure out what they are thinking.
"next year or the year afterward, Luxon will be ready to take over and do a John Key"
That appears to be the plan.
Since Key crawled out of his crypt a day or two ago to extol the virtues of Luxon in the face of Bridges self destructing https://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=12326839 I think the game plan is badger the govt , with the help of Winston to push the election out to next year by which time Jamie-lee Ross may well be convicted and will be expelled from Parliament giving enough time for a by-election so no surprises as to who the Nat candidate is yes Luxon and bingo instant new fast tracked leader to take on Jacinda no need to wait until 2023 so they need to put Bridges on life support for the duration or find a temporary mug to take the hits in the meantime . They are shrewder than shithouse rats we must hope Jamie-lee Ross avoids the conviction .
That's not a game plan, it's a fantasy.
There is zero chance of the election being pushed out to next year, because Labour would have to vote for it (75% majority in Parliament). Of course they won't.
There is no political reason whatsoever to delay the election. (A public health reason might exist in September or November, but then we might be hit by an asteroid).
Election won't get pushed out till next year, they'll keep the Sept date unless the virus really takes off again.
Will be watching JLR's seat with great interest.
There's also the possibility that Ross takes the whole ship down with him. He may be convicted, but the stinking mess could be smeared all over the remains of the National Party.
Slapping a new face on the old ship probably wouldn't do it in those circumstances. A pretty substantial rebuild of the party would be needed to restore the trust of the electorate if the rot is shown to be throughout the party, or at least through the upper levels.
This could explain Bridges' recent attempts to commit political suicide by making a complete dick of himself, he wants to be removed form politics so he doesn't have to wear the rap for what went on with the donations. But stress can make someone fuck up in spectacular ways as well.
there's also the issue of the capture of National by the neolibs, similar in some ways to what happened to Labour in the 80s and how that affected them post-Clark. So a rebuild, but also coming to terms with the big cultural change of the last few decades.
The Dirty Politics crew, and people currently trying to run Trumpian politics, have had a big influence but I wonder how many NZers are actually supportive of what they are doing beyond just a general desire for right wing economics. Now that it's crunch time with covid, it may be that people want more a more socially cohesive right wing party than National can offer.
Going from the small sample of National voters I work with on the farm they aren't doing very well at all.
These are two young guys, manager in his 30's and tractor driver in 20's, both from multi-generational National voting farming families. They are not impressed with National and it's leadership and are unlikely to vote for them until there's major changes. I gather that goes for family and friends as well.
Honesty, integrity and compassion are core conservative family values. Tearing everything down to try and make yourself look better are not.
I think some changes might be coming, and 35% could be very optimistic.
I for one would welcome the return of old school conservative politics on the right.
Are they saying who they will vote for instead? Or will they not vote at all?
Possibility they will vote Labour, or not vote. Very good chance of 'reward votes' for Labour's exemplary handling of the crisis though.
These guys are pretty blue though, manager didn't talk to me socially for a couple of months after it fell out that I was a Labour member, he's got over it now though.
Regen-ag is being talked about too, manager is developing plans on how it would work on the station. Not sure whether that's come down from the owners, who have a pretty good handle on sustainability for property developers, or up through the farm focus groups, think it's a bit of both. Farmers are always looking for a better, or more profitable way of doing things.
Useful intel there. FWIK, it's very hard to get died-in-the-wool Nats to change their vote. Some older ones will vote for Winston (because he's like a pre-1984 Nats, to them) but I don't know any who will admit to voting Labour. None of them will vote Green. Only some of the young Nat voters who attend University are amenable to persuasion and that depends on who's doing the persuading (David Clark utterly hopeless at Otago).
That's a well written and thought out post. However I think Bennet would be a disaster for the Nats. Put up against Ardern she would accentuate Ardern's abilities even more.
I was just thinking this as well.
Probably the only person who could 'out-nice' Jacinda Ardern is Suzy Cato. Last I checked she didn't have any political aspirations. Paula 'Bride of Frankenstein' Bennett is irredeemably awful, ambitious and an opportunist, which is probably why she's managed to climb so high (or perhaps stoop so low) within National Party ranks.
Nice people (or even half-decent human beings) do not rise to the top of the National Party. However, many New Zealanders happily vote for arseholes, the more unpleasant the better. Suspect trump would do well here.
Well….. to paraphrase
A pox on all their houses
If I'm reading you correctly, then I wholeheartedly agree.
The entire political system is geared to have us merely elect a new captain to the bridge of the Titanic or some such. On the whole blue team, green team, red team front – they have all steered us into the path of calamity with their nonsense.
All of them are in the business of pretend and extend, and so if that's your bag then sure, have a Jacinda, or a Paula, or a James – I'm sure the nth degree of incremental difference between their respective prescriptive trajectories will make for a world of difference some way down their shared track.
Bill and Barfly, to say Jacinda is "pretending" is unkind. She is genuine. You may not believe in her politics, but as a person she is sound. She also lives her values, unlike some self important people.
Paula has always looked after Paula, and when questioned can become personal and vindictive. That is not what NZ needs.
This whole covid strategy has relied mainly on trust. Jacinda trusted us and we trusted her. Could you imagine Paula in that position? Or Luxton? or Mark Mitchell? et al. ?????
Jacinda is very good at what she does and has excelled of late.
But my point has nothing to do with personalities or how adept individuals are at selling messages. My point is the simple one of politics being narrowly bound by the strictures of capitalism, and the pretense coming from all political parties that we can somehow carry on with capitalism in some form or other and not run full tilt into the effects of global warming.
It's not crazy to suggest that two possible and mutually exclusive futures are post capitalist and post human.
I'd prefer post-captalist.. But I am not all that optimistic.
Same here. The pandemic poses a once-in-a-century opportunity for New Zealanders to change the way their world functions (government, economy, society). If we don't take that opportunity to reshape that world so that it functions more fairly, and less destructively, than the one that existed before 25 march 2020, we have only ourselves to blame. Our political enemies (that is what the Right represents) will not miss any opportunity to create the world they want – and it will be a miserable world for most of us and our descendants (it will be miserable for a lot of them too, but I'm less concerned for their wellbeing than I am for people who are not right-wingers).
I wholeheartedly agree with patricia, bill – in my view it would take an extraordinary degree of cynicism to say that the differences between these three are divided by an 'n'th degree. I suppose it's all 'n' the eye of the beholder – but I have a whole lot of reasons to respect Jacinda and have every reason to do so for James too.
And again, it's the narrowly defined politics that political leaders and their respective parties promote and represent that I was referring to – not anyone's personality traits.
Kia ora.
I guess they simply reflect a lack of imagination in mainstream NZ. Having confidence in a vision of and promoting an alternative to capitalism requires a degree of ‘stepping-out there’ which is never going to explicitly come from a political party that depends on the mainstream to survive.
This will only come from a cohesive message originating in the fringes.
Obviously you aren't reading Barfly correctly.
The National Party houses.
yes that's what i meant
Old slippery, Teflon John has got it all sorted.
No worries.
Problem that anyone looking to roll Bridges prior to the election has is that the script from above has him losing it and Luxon rolling him a few months after then winning the 2023 election. Are any of the current lot really going to want to be the leader this election if the outlook is that bad and they’d effectively be bench warming a la Brash?
Bennett would cherish being leader even for a week.
Ah, but yes.
1: it goes on your CV for directorships on overseas-owned NZ companies
2: I reckon more than a couple of them think they have the ability and popular support to actually win the thing.
3: the optimists will be thinking Lab's peaked too soon and fickle voters will run to tory.
As I've said before, neo liberalism's shitty, me- first philosophy has hollowed out the National party, so that all you've got left, is a collection of vile, unelectable wanna be's.
Neoliberalism has had a dire effect on Labour too. I'm not sure if it can rise to the challenges before it but I am almost certain that no other political institution in Aotearoa has a hope.
A fair chunk of the electorate likes a bully, as long as they're not in the firing line, so barring any unfortunate leaks from WINZ or tales from former flatmates, Puller would have some pull.
Exactly. Many more people will now become dependent on the state, via WINZ and other outfits. To say these institutions are incapable of meeting their needs fairly and compassionately is an understatement. Making sure they are capable, or not, will determine the Labour party's future.
dont know why the natz dont go straight for the yen and make the chinese spy teacher the leader. be the honorable(lol) thing to do.
No one can save National. The person with the most caucus votes will become the new National leader.
All National can do is try to prevent Labour from governing without a coalition partner.
Whether National remove Bridges quickly or slowly is to be determined. So far it has been slow and the reason for this would be an internal matter and not a public one.
Bridges is having an awful week. When over thrown or he jumps happens he might feel relief.
The return of Steve Pierson.
Why don't you come back on a full time basis Clint. The Standard would be a lot better with your contributions. You are on twitter all day so go on, you know you want to.
On the same briar patch issue for National.
Chris Trotter at Bowalley Road has "Deposing Simon Bridges Would Be A Mistake."
BTW: Nice post Clint – that is a tidy and clear analysis of the issue that faces National – especially
There has been some speculation about if the National party MPs have been seeing the internal polling. Most recently by Jane Patterson in "Simon Bridges' leadership questioned after missteps". (my italics)
If correct then that could tactically be foolish – it provides a torch issue for disgruntled MPs to coalalese (?sp) around.
As I remember Nationals procedures, it only requires MPs to change the leadership. In which case looking at when their MPs return will be interesting eh..
So Hooters et al may be mainly leaking internal Nat polling to inform caucus factions rather than the public?
That would be my guess – whoever slipped him the numbers would have almost certainly have wanted him to do so. Matthew isn’t known for holding back on publishing juicy data.
If these data are so safely guarded then that would narrow down the leaker, wouldn’t it? Does Curia do all the internal polling for National?
Suspect this is true. Hooton (or his clients) have given up on Bridges and don't want to be locked out of power (and spoils) for another 3 years. So they're trying to bring matters to a head and create a spill. I don't think it will work for them, regardless of whether Bridges stays or goes: Labour must lose the election before the Nats can win power again.
Leave Simon in place to fight an election that will almost certainly now be lost, accept his inevitable resignation and install Luxon. It isn't hat hard really. The real question is the country ready to go back to what National has to offer even in three years post COVID.
Would the Nat Caucus accept Luxton as a newbie that easily? Luxton does belong to one of those fundamentalist little churches and is anti abortion and firmly believes in the Coming to solve all our problems.
He'll need those nice men from Crosby-Textor to instruct him on how to keep a lid on his more insane utterances.
Luxie had a lovely opportunity this week to comment one way or another on the Air NZ refund business. Maybe I missed his valuable insights.
The question will be not what National has to offer but what labour coalition has to offer when they most likely win a close election. I say close because although many people vote for the leader, just as many vote for policy and economic outcome. Leaders are mouth pieces that are supposed to look good and say the right things. That’s all they do. JA couldn’t write the budget or build more houses. Isn’t her job. Some people actually think about the economy and the difficulties ahead and will question the coalitions every move. There are dark times ahead for who ever wins the election. When a country has massive debt and unemployment the government of the day will be in no position to implement all the nice reforms everyone would like and stay popular. Beware what you wish for.
" Leaders are mouth pieces that are supposed to look good and say the right things. That’s all they do."
That is simply not true. Do you think that described Helen Clark?
Helen Clark was a powerful leader who could influence policy but she didn’t write it. She might have been able to influence how it was written and she had to pick a cabinet that was capable of implementing that policy. Has JA been good enough to do that and has she had enough talent around her to implement it. Mmm. The results of the last three years tends to tell a different story. This Government started its tenure in good nick economically . That’s gone. The good will will won’t last long. Bridges will have nothing to do with it unless he’s there if National win. That will be unlikely.
This post is a bit "Game of Thrones" – very good script, intriguing characters, engaging plot … but then ruined by the ending!
Seriously, the first three-quarters of Clint's post is good analysis, and quite fair, not just partisan. I certainly haven't forgotten Labour's pain in opposition (and I was just a voter, not insider).
But Paula can't be the answer. For one thing, she doesn't represent change in voters' minds. A new leader has to distance him/herself from Bridges. That's easy when you've got 2 years to prepare (think Key dumping a lot of Brash baggage before the 2008 election). But not now.
Yes, Ardern took it on very late, but she was not well known to the general public. She seemed new, fresh. Paula is all too familiar.
The Nats will not be pitching change – rather a return to the pre-2017 status quo as if Ardern and Covid had never existed. Bennett is one of their only MPs with public recognition.
I mean change from the current leadership. She can't say "Simon was wrong". The new leader needs to.
She can say 'John and Bill were right when I served them'. Simon will be wiped from the conversation, they hope.
Hope so. Best scenario is Bridges stays, and if they have to change Bennett's just as capable of convincing the public she's an idiot. That leaves loose cannon Collins to stuff things up for them later on. We don't want Collins used up just yet. That'd be an unnecessarily wasteful use of resources.
That's the big thing. Ardern completely changed Labour's energy and approach to the election, and was a strong contrast to blinglish. But Labour's policy platform was also pretty good, it just wasn't being communicated strongly.
Bennett might have a bit more bounce than Bridges, but she's still old hat, and national party policy is still unimaginative. And if they get a few percent from the leadership change, they'll be sucking much ot it from ACT anyway. They still have no friends.
In crises, voters have always tended to favour reassurance over imagination. Can Bennett be sold as a safe pair of hands?
Doubtful.
"There won’t be a better chance to save National from the Bridges disaster, give it a fighting chance at the election, and secure the leadership for the next term."
The last part of Clint's conclusion raises a tricky point: will the party stick with a leader who still loses, but not as badly as feared? And if not, will the deposed leader stick around in caucus, with a decent job?
Bill English (after 2002) and Andrew Little are rare exceptions. The usual practice is for an ex-leader to quit Parliament quickly. If you were an ambitious National MP today, would you want to risk your entire political future on an election you expect to lose?
I suspect this is at the back (front?) of mind for the likes of Mitchell and Muller. Better to be a Minister in 2023 than out of Parliament in 2021.
Imo, that has always been a weakness in Labour. They have improved since Jacinda Ardern took over but that is due to her brilliant communication skills.
Back in the day, I recall feeling so frustrated when watching political interviews – especially around election time. One knew how a Labour politician should answer a question thrown at them, but they rarely obliged. Instead you would get a convoluted answer that had people tuned out well before they had finished.
Maybe it was lack of funds and therefore unable to hire the best communicators to assist them.
Edit: there were of course exceptions to the rule. Helen Clark was one of them.
*Jaws theme playing in the background*
Judith says she's not interested …
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/judith-collins-insists-shes-not-interested-in-leading-nats-after-topping-poll/ar-BB136H7x?li=BBqdg4K&ocid=mailsignout
What number of article are we up to of the imminent sacking of Bridges again?
You lose count after this many years of them.
No one is going to even want the job atm going into the election, after this.
Ardern, after the monopoly coverage from covid, unless she does something so odd it kills people, and even then it is pushing it, will waltz it, and Bridges will walk.
This post registers 0 on the
Who gives a fuckOmeter
The needle flickered enough for you to comment on it.
That comment wasn’t worth responding to. It had zero substance and was particularly rude too given this is a Guest Post. The stats for the Post are very good. If they keep trolling here like this, they’ll face the consequences.
Scratching my head at the headline till I realised it should have read "Why Save National?"
Now I see why we went through five leaders in six years. If the polls are bad roll em. Roll em roll em. Bugger new ideas and team unity roll em roll em get a new shiny leader to offer the same plastic uninspired crap and roll em if it doesn't work. You talk about seeing the polls drop on election year? Does that mean you think we were doing well on non election years? In what universe? At what point in 9 years of opposition was labour ever out polling National prior to August 2017? We lost every poll for a decade and a good poll was when we cracked 30% only under the first few months of cunliffes tenure did we get near 37%, which Jacinda herself couldn't even crack, for 9 years Labour was an un-unified abysmally polling mess that had no real ideas and seemed right up until August 2017 to either be delusional abouto chances getting into government or think "a well bugger they'll get sick of National eventually" I don’t think National will take the advice of the staffer of a party lost the popular vote, four elections in a row and it’s only answer was roll the leader. Which is your advice here 😂
May I remind everyone that just a couple of months after peak Jacinda last year, Labour was losing polls and at end of last year and up until this February labour looked like absolute dog tucker, that National has been forensic in it's ability to make people feel like Labour have achieved bugger all and once again despite all the hate Simon gets national was able to out poll Labour pretty quickly last year and in a couple of months the same thing probably will happen again but once labours counting it's chickens before it hatches.
Underestimate National and Simon at your own risk, labour underestimated Key for ten years. I wanna second labour term govt but Jacindas popularity is cyclical and seems to fan out after emergencies have passed, she is not now nor has she ever been as popular a figure as that reprehensible slime bag John Key , so if peak Jacinda is a 50/50 chance of a second term where we might even win the the popular vote for the first time in fifteen years (maybe) is not super duper impressive.
The nats have just released an ANZAC day advert on social media.
There is only one person in it who is not an MP… you guessed it… luxon.
Why would that be… ?
He's their best Auckland bundler other than Peter Goodfellow himself.
It would be mighty funny if it didn't work out, stranger things have happened.
Taxicab.. jlr and co are back in court June 10
see 9.2.1.1 above . Does anyone know when the court hearings commence ?
Bring on Paula.
I can't wait.
It will be difficult for National to get a profile and common direction not driven by egos and the look at me brigade.
I think Simon O'Connor and Amy Adams would be a good choice. Pragmatic, knowledgeable and level headed. They could, if all of the party pulls together be in the race. Just my 5 cents…..
Amy isn't seeking re-election
simon o'connor is bridges brother in law
Funny.
NZ is a 2 degree country. You will find that you cross paths with so many people over and over again during your professional career. These two are currently the only candidates within National with credentials and ability to lead. Very unfortunate that Amy is not seeking re-election. Very capable and a fantastic mind.
The same Simon O'Connor who was formerly a Catholic priest and whose beliefs about abortion and same-sex marriage would make a happy-clapper like Luxon seem positively new age? Yeah, he'd go down a real treat.
Nice Post!
PB has reinvented herself at least once and she’s a bit of a political chameleon. Being Simon’s Deputy may give her some support or it could work against her but to too hard for me to say.
If she did become Leader she’ll go for a win, i.e. put National in a position (poll position?) to form a coalition. If National loses, but with some pride intact, I doubt she’d be stepping aside for the soapy guy who smells of roses.
Lastly, don’t underestimate PB.
I don't under-estimate bennett's ability to pull the wool over people's eye's before an election. But she doesn't have the smarts to keep doing it if she were elected.
You know the saying about fooling all people all the time? Key could do it, for nine long years, and he still manages to fool some people.
I know what you're saying and key was the first person I thought of when I read your comment, but we're talking about paula bennett here. She ain't no key, and key left because he saw people were waking up. bennett might have a low cunning, but nothing more.
PB did well under Key and English and became Deputy Leader under Bridges and she’s now ranked #2 and the Campaign Leader. Key’s never really left, has he, but PB is still there, prominently? I think we haven’t seen all yet from PB.
I’m not trying to talk up PB, far from it, put I’m trying to see it in a different perspective and in line with the OP.
A lot can be done with the right PR too. Bridges either has idiots advising him or he's not listening to them. Bennett is smarter than that.
Yes, I can see how that conclusion can be reached. A lot of people see her as capable, hard-working, clever and even sharp. And I could easily be wrong about her. But it's also apparent, at least to me which means nothing, that how she does come across is wholly superficial. She gets away with a lot with her low cunning but when she's really pressed there's nothing there. Bridges is the same. That famous interview with John Campbell in 2013 when he was environment minister is a good example. If Bennett was PM or even leader of the nats it wouldn't be long before the general public would see she was out of her depth. Maybe she could surprise? I don't know. I just see her as too nasty, too vain and just not bright enough and when her true nature is exposed to more people via a leadership role she'd be toast. It'd be interesting running a predictions book. It's a shame ipredict isn't operating anymore.