Harawira vs Davis vs ?

Written By: - Date published: 10:36 am, May 11th, 2011 - 38 comments
Categories: by-election, labour, mana-party, maori party - Tags: , ,

Labour has decided to stand Kelvin Davis in the Te Tai Tokerau by-election. I wish they hadn’t. First, Davis strikes me as quality and you don’t tarnish quality by making it lose in front of a national audience. Look what happened to Melissa Lee, former National rising star. And Davis will lose, let’s be honest.

Hone Harawira beat Davis by winning over twice as many votes in 2008. Since then, Harawira’s profile has risen hugely and he has become a hero to a good many. Davis hasn’t made that impact. I don’t see some new, unknown, Maori Party candidate making enough of an impact to close that gap. If anything the anti-Hone vote will be split.

Sure, Labour can deploy the organisational structure of not only TTT but the co-located general electorates and Tamaki Makaurau but Harawira is the incumbent and he has stayed true to his people through-out.

Yes, Labour’s ability to get out the vote is fearsome but getting out the vote is much harder in Maori electorates even at a general election, let alone against a new party in a by-election. Who will Labour know to get out? In reality, a Labour get out the vote effort designed to get out all potential Labour voters, ie anyone left of centre (excepting people who have said they are a member of a different party in door to door canvassing, I guess). I don’t know how they can possibly know which TTT enrolled votes to target for a GOTV effort when there’s no socio-economic divide to go on and no canvassing data that would incorporate the Mana Party, and good odds that a Labour supporter backed Harawira as the candidate last time anyway.

Second, it’s a waste of resources. OK, you get to do a(nother) live test of your GOTV system but it’s not a typical one, so probably not very instructive and while by-elections are a good opportunity to excite the activists it also uses up their limited time that could be better used this close to an election.

Third, I want Harawira to win.

Now, don’t let that invalidate the rest of what I’ve said. I want Harawira to win for the wider Left’s sake. Harawira has a constituency. It is made up of Left people. What is better: for those people to be unrepresented, maybe not bothering to vote or maybe in the Greens or Labour trying to drag them to an extreme that they don’t want to go to, or for them to have their own party in Parliament, adding to the Left’s combined voice and there to deal with when agreement can be found, which is most of the time in reality? There is a place for the Mana Party and it works in Labour and the Green’s favour, just as ACT works in National’s favour. It would be a shame to see that wasted.

That’s why I hope that, behind the drama of the Harawira vs Davis vs ? fight the strategists from the parties of the Left will be keeping lines of communication open. We don’t agree on everything but we basically agree on most stuff, and we’ve got a nasty common enemy to fight.

38 comments on “Harawira vs Davis vs ? ”

  1. Um not sure Eddie on a few points:
     
    1.  If there is a MP candidate then there will be a three way split and anything can happen.
    2.  Harawira, who I actually like, is prone to make silly decisions and say dumb things although I agree that his latest supposed gaffe about Osama has been misreported.
    3.  Labour can use its machine for instance out west on by election day to doorknock individuals in a way that it can never do on a general election day.
    4.  Although I personally agree about the need and desirability of there being another party of the left Mana’s handling of it’s launch has not been good.  We do not even know if there will be a by election as Hone has not actually resigned and the loose ends he has left open is sloppy.
    5.  The danger is that Hone does not get up at the general election and a couple of percent of vote on the left is wasted.  This would all but guarantee the return of Key/Brash.

  2. Sally 2

    I would take a close look at a) the Party vote in TTT in 08, and b) where the population is based in TTT. It’s not as much a Northland seat as everyone makes out.

    Also, look at how the media are treating Harawira – they hate him, and he plays right into their hands. He’s damaged goods, and he’s not really going to do any favours to the Left with that sort of profile.

    It has to be Davis.

  3. Carol 3

    My views on Mana, Harawira, Davis etc are fairly open at the moment. I like Mana’s general platform, but am waiting for the party to show how well it performs. I have also been impressed with some of Davis’s speeches in the House. I am interested to see how the by-election and the main players perform in it. It does give Davis & Labour an opportunity to show what they stand for. I doubt anyone really has strong expectations that Davis will win, so it’s his performance that will count.

  4. DJ 4

    If Kelvin David is quality then why would he automatically lose? And Melissa Lee is not like Kelvin Davis at all Eddie. You can check out their historys if you like. They’re two completely different people.

    Harawira has become a hero but becoming a hero doesn’t win you elections.

    • Carol 4.1

      If Kelvin David is quality then why would he automatically lose?

      Because Harawira is the sitting candidate, has a strong following in the area, and many Maori are still not happy with Labour’s position over the Foreshore & Seabed.

      • adriank 4.1.1

        I also disagree that him losing will curtail his opportunities in the future… look at Hekia Parata (horrible shrew that she is): lost handily in Mana but not a cabinet minister as a direct result of her performance there.

        Unrelated, one of my favourite ever John Key quotes came out of the Mana by-election, something alonmg the lines of: “Anyway you look at [the result in Mana], it’s a win.” You know, unless you look at it in terms of who received a higher percentage of the vote and thus ‘won’ the by-election.

        • Tigger 4.1.1.1

          Agree. Davis is quality and what a great way to show off just how quality he is – all eyes will be on this race and he’ll get some national exposure which he wouldn’t get in a General Election. Unless he does a Melissa Lee he can’t actually ‘lose’ per se.

  5. Sam 5

    First of all, Hone needs to resign from parliament and he won’t or can’t do that unless the Mana party actually exists. I am not sure if that is the case yet.

    And remember that Hone’s stronghold is north of Whangarei, the further south you go, the weaker he is. Thus concentrating on voters south of that city should pay dividends for Labour.
    However that is also where the Maori party will be strongest.
    There is thus a danger that Labour and the Maori party vote will be split, allowing Hone to win because of his stronghold up north. Hone’s weaknesses south of Whangarei are also that he is having to rely on 1980’s activists like John Minto and Sue Bradford etc.
    These people are not going to be good for Hone if Labour starts to attack their presence within the Mana party.
    I also believe that the Mintos and Bradfords won’t even sign on with Mana, they are activists outside the system, they would lose “street cred” bigtime.
    So we will see what eventuates. But it will be interesting.

    [lprent: Have you read the policy yet. Read my note here. Tell me when you have done so and that you won’t waste my time in the future and I’ll drop the auto-moderation. ]

  6. ghostwhowalksnz 6

    With Matt McCarten hitching his ‘anchor’ to yet another parliamentary party, the eventual outcome is certain.
    Mana party will be a washout , hone may yet linger on but his left credentials are built on shaky ground, himself. Phillip Field comes to mind, as far as left credentials go.

  7. The Voice of Reason 7

    I think Labour has made the right choice. To not stand risks being seen as endorsing Hone, which would make winning the seat in November much harder. Hone probably has the advantage of being the current MP, but the disadvantage of having put off many voters as well. Pem Bird’s comment about the ‘silent majority’ isn’t a fantasy. In a 3 way split, I’d say it’s 40/40/20 at the moment, with MP voters who don’t want Hone tactically voting for Labour, rather than Maori Party.

    Hone’s biggest problem won’t be getting support, it will be getting votes. At this point he hasn’t even got the numbers to form a party, which is the real reason he is delaying resigning. Then he has to get his supporters on the electoral roll prior to the cutoff date, which may only be a week or two after he resigns. It could end up with Hone being well ahead on the media polling prior to the vote, but failing to turn that into an actual winning margin on the day.

    Either way, the Maori Party are going to get a well deserved thrashing, which will be repeated nationwide in November.

  8. millsy 8

    I want Harawira to win for the wider Left’s sake. Harawira has a constituency. It is made up of Left people

    WTF?!

    Why the left would throw in their hope, dreams and efforts in behind a blowhard egotist like Hone bloody Harawira and his idiot family is completely beyond me. The guy hasant even resigned from Parliament like he said he was going to, and the deadline is getting closer and closer,

    John Minto, I can understand, but I thought that the likes of Bradford or McCarten (and even Nandor) would have more brains than to hop on Hone Harawira’s heap of shit band wagon.

    Kelvin Davis will win this one easily – Mana and Maori will cancel each other out, and the people of TTT will have someone with real mana representing them, not some loser who swaggers round like a gang member.

  9. vidiot 9

    3-way vote split – could be an interesting race – however I have my doubts on Hone actually standing down and calling a by-election.

  10. Graeme 10

    Millsy has it right. the folk of TTT deserve kelvin davis. The man has Mana. He is probably the closest thing the red team has to a potential Prime Minister.

    • Sam 10.1

      I would still go for Shane Jones as the next Labour PM, he has standing within the wider community, despite his porn movie saga.

      [lprent: Have you read the policy yet. Read my note here. Tell me when you have done so and that you won’t waste my time in the future and I’ll drop the auto-moderation. ]

  11. Daveo 11

    I don’t think labour had any choice once the Maori party decided to stand a candidate but I also agree with Maui Street: http://mauistreet.blogspot.com/2011/05/why-hone-will-win.html

  12. deemac 12

    Kelvin is standing because you don’t win by refusing to stand!
    (Plus he is clearly the best candidate IMHO.)

    • PeteG 12.1

      I agree, from what I’ve seen he’s a far more capable, positive MP than Harawira, hopefully enough in can TTT see it that way too. And if Davis does well – and maybe wins – then maybe Labour will get some confidence, model themselves on his sort of attributes and get their shit together.

  13. The Maori Party and the Labour Party are have become corrupted by allowing themselves to be used as tools of the corporate establishment, Hone Harawira’s Mana Party has not. I hope Hone Harawira wins a resounding victory in the by-election and that this victory will be the spring board from which the Mana Party can take a few more Maori party seats in the general election.

    The only thing I would disagree with in the Maui Street blog, mentioned in post #11, is the proposition that many Mana supporters might not vote as by-elections do not historically have a high turn out. I suspect that the interest being generated by this by-election will be significant enough to motivate big turn out.

    This by-election, more than any other past by-election, looks set to be one of the pivotal political events leading up to the next general election.

  14. well said Eddie

  15. Anthony 15

    LOL @ righty hard-on for Davis.

  16. PeteG 17

    This will be one of the most interesting by-elections – next step is to see who the Maori Party get to stand for them.

    Hard to know how much support will be based on party, and how much based on candidate.

    Harawira obviously has the most to lose. I think Davis has the most to gain, he and Labour will benefit even from an honourable defeat. The Maori Party may struggle to get much out of the exercise apart from Mama abuse.

    • Lanthanide 17.1

      I think the Maori Party, being widely seen as the underdog, both in this electorate and in most of the other Maori seats, have the most to gain – if they win.
       
      If they can beat back Mana they can say “see, we are the party that best represents Maori in parliament”, and if they can beat back Labour they can also say “see, people don’t mind that we shacked up with National – as long as we get things done”.

  17. U 4 United 18

    Davis will win!

  18. Jenny 19

    The poll in Tai Tokerau may also be a poll on the efficacy of on line polls.

    Stuff.co.nz have just run an online poll on who would in Tai Tokerau.

    Here it is:

    Who would win a Te Tai Tokerau by-election?

    Hone Harawira’s Mana Party
    199 votes, 10.6%

    Maori Party
    822 votes, 43.8%

    Labour Party
    854 votes, 45.5%

    Total 1875 votes

    stuff.co.nz Labour contesting Tai Tokerau

    • The Voice of Reason 19.1

      I suspect what that question translates to in people’s heads is ‘who would you like to win the Te Tai Tokerau by-election?’. The percentages are about right, but it’s going to be the Maori Party a distant third on the day.

    • PeteG 19.2

      That’s a more ridiculous than usual poll.

      The by-election is for a person to represent an electorate, it isn’t a party vote.
      The Maori Party candidate is unknown.
      Unless the poll was restricted to TTT voters it’s meaningless.

      • Colonial Viper 19.2.1

        I wonder if everyone who voted in that poll is on the Maori Roll, and not the General Roll. Yeah I agree that’s not really likely is it.

  19. Rosemary 20

    That’s right mickysavage – and is why Labour shouldn’t be so anti-Hone – they’re going to need him. Or is this a trick to make sure they don’t lose votes by being seen as aligned with who they think the public regard as the most despised man in current politics, then come vote-counting time they’ll turn around and welcome him with open arms?

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    One of the big underlying problems in our political system is the prevalence of short-term thinking, most usually seen in the periodic massive infrastructure failures at a local government level caused by them skimping on maintenance to Keep Rates Low. But the new government has given us a new example, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • NZ has a chance to rise again as our new government gets spending under control
    New Zealand has  a chance  to  rise  again. Under the  previous  government, the  number of New Zealanders below the poverty line was increasing  year by year. The Luxon-led government  must reverse that trend – and set about stabilising  the  pillars  of the economy. After the  mismanagement  of the outgoing government created   huge ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    5 days ago
  • KARL DU FRESNE: Media and the new government
    Two articles by Karl du Fresne bring media coverage of the new government into considerations.  He writes –    Tuesday, November 28, 2023 The left-wing media needed a line of attack, and they found one The left-wing media pack wasted no time identifying the new government’s weakest point. Seething over ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • PHILIP CRUMP:  Team of rivals – a CEO approach to government leadership
    The work begins Philip Crump wrote this article ahead of the new government being sworn in yesterday – Later today the new National-led coalition government will be sworn in, and the hard work begins. At the core of government will be three men – each a leader ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Black Friday
    As everyone who watches television or is on the mailing list for any of our major stores will confirm, “Black Friday” has become the longest running commercial extravaganza and celebration in our history. Although its origins are obscure (presumably dreamt up by American salesmen a few years ago), it has ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    6 days ago
  • In Defense of the Media.
    Yesterday the Ministers in the next government were sworn in by our Governor General. A day of tradition and ceremony, of decorum and respect. Usually.But yesterday Winston Peters, the incoming Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister, of our nation used it, as he did with the signing of the coalition ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Tuesday, Nov 28
    Nicola Willis’ first move was ‘spilling the tea’ on what she called the ‘sobering’ state of the nation’s books, but she had better be able to back that up in the HYEFU. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • PT use up but fare increases coming
    Yesterday Auckland Transport were celebrating, as the most recent Sunday was the busiest Sunday they’ve ever had. That’s a great outcome and I’m sure the ...
    6 days ago
  • The very opposite of social investment
    Nicola Willis (in blue) at the signing of the coalition agreement, before being sworn in as both Finance Minister and Social Investment Minister. National’s plan to unwind anti-smoking measures will benefit her in the first role, but how does it stack up from a social investment viewpoint? Photo: Lynn Grieveson ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Giving Tuesday
    For the first time "in history" we decided to jump on the "Giving Tuesday" bandwagon in order to make you aware of the options you have to contribute to our work! Projects supported by Skeptical Science Inc. Skeptical Science Skeptical Science is an all-volunteer organization but ...
    6 days ago
  • Let's open the books with Nicotine Willis
    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago
  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    7 days ago
  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    7 days ago
  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago
  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    1 week ago
  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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