Herald shows gap narrowing

Written By: - Date published: 12:05 pm, July 1st, 2011 - 58 comments
Categories: act, election 2011, greens, labour, national - Tags:

The latest Herald poll shows Labour + Greens at 42.7%, with National + ACT at 53.1% – the gap is down to 10.4% from 16.9% in May. That confirms the trend we’re seeing in the Roy Morgans as well. Interesting to note that the gap is 17% this point before the last election. Continued progress and focus on the big issues will see victory for the Left.

In minor party news: It looks like New Zealand First isn’t going to get to 5%, falling back to 1.2%. Mana registers for the first time at 0.5%. Expect its support to grow by a couple of percent in coming months.

58 comments on “Herald shows gap narrowing”

  1. vidiot 1

    Not surprising the rise with the amount of face time Kelvin Davis was getting in TTT – it’s just a pity he didn’t win.

    Now if only he was leader, perhaps then voter apathy to Labour might reduce.

    • swordfish 1.1

      Would it kill the Herald to provide a table with the full demographic and geographic Party-Vote breakdowns ?????

      They’ve obviously gathered this information so why not publish it for…..you know…..the friggin readers, for Christ-sake ?????

      • Colonial Viper 1.1.1

        Meh only you bleeding heart liberals worry about things like graphs and data tables.

        It’s so unnecessary.

        And it takes up advertising space.

  2. Lanthanide 2

    Let’s just ignore the Roy Morgan poll taken over the same time period where nothing changed from the last one, right?

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4681/

    • The Voice of Reason 2.1

      Not so, Lanthanide. Roy Morgan tells us that confidence in Key’s government continues to ebb away. That’s crucial for attracting swinging/undecided voters to the left. The main positive from the NZH poll is that there is a significant rise in support for Labour in Auckland. And that’s where elections are won and lost.

      • Portion Control 2.1.1

        It’s called the government confidence rating but the question isn’t about the government. It’s whether the country is heading in the right direction, or seriously the wrong direction.

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1

          It’s called the government confidence rating but the question isn’t about the government.

          Which reminds me of “the Budget said that there would be 170,000 new jobs, but the Government didn’t say that there would be 170,000 new jobs”.

    • lprent 2.2

      It was mentioned in OpenMike. I think that there was a post on the Morgan poll a week or so again. Remaining steady isn’t exactly that interesting eh…

      I believe that it has been mentioned many times that the authors don’t try to write about every poll. It is rather pointless because absolute numbers are pretty useless. They will write about the ones that find interesting for trends in polls taken from single companies.

      In this case there is a significant difference between a poll taken last month (immediately after the budget from memory) and this month from the same poll. That is interesting.

      The only real relevance of the the Morgan poll is that it has showed that closing of the gap as well, just not quite as much, and in polls over the 6 weeks..

      • Lanthanide 2.2.1

        I agree entirely with your sentiments, but at the same time, I think if an important poll has just been released and you’re making a comment about it, you should at least mention the existence of the second poll that was published about the same time.

        Just my opinion, though, and obviously authors are free to right what they like – and I’m free to think they should have written more.

        Also the Morgan poll I’m talking about it was released 30th June, as in yesterday. So anything posted weeks ago was talking about a different poll.

  3. Rich 3

    There is, I think, about a 4% expected error on the vote of smaller parties due to sample size. which means that basically anything a poll tells you about their fortunes is random.

    • Roger 3.1

      Not quite, one thing that is not often mentioned is that the margin of error reported is usually what it would be when a party or individual is polling at 50%. The margin of error actually decreases as you get into the lower percentages. It’s all here:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

  4. Chris 4

    Is this the same poll that see’s Key getting more popular then ever ?

    “And John Key’s popularity as preferred prime minister has risen….backing for Mr Key as preferred prime minister has risen from 67.7 per cent last month to 70.6 per cent of decided respondents.

    And so the left continue to practice the politics of envy and negativity while they march towards oblivion in November.

    Some one said socialist are not reality based umm.. can’t remember who.. never mind.

    • lprent 4.1

      Yep. Looks like John Key is getting more popular whilst his party is getting less popular. Interesting isn’t it. Just think what he could do if he ditched the dunderheads in his cabinet who are holding him back… I can see a Canute moment coming as he changes NZ’s economy all on his own (by putting in a cycleway?). Or maybe it would allow him to walk on water..

      Roughly speaking, people tend to vote for parties more than they do for the leader of a party when it comes to being close to an election. Which is why you tend to get interesting changes in the actual vote compared to the polls (even those close to election). As Audrey Young said…

      Five months before the last election, National was polling 54.9 per cent and it eventually won 44.93 per cent of the vote.

      I’d add that one of the most useless measures for determining the outcome of an election is the personal popularity of the leaders. However political idiots like yourself really don’t bother thinking about the past. Instead you like making stupid myths – as is quite evident from your comment.

      • The Baron 4.1.1

        Jesus Lynn, personal popularity of Helen was one of the factors that saved labour in 2005.
        People that think as much about politics as you and me don’t mind the leaders much; but we are few in the greater scheme of things. For the less informed average punter, leader perceptions absolutely matter; and that preferred prime minister stat shows how many the lesser informed will go if the issues don’t register with them.
        Do you must make stuff up to lord over the poor peons who dare to challenge you? Because that statement is just 101 level wrong.

        • Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1

          and that preferred prime minister stat shows how many the lesser informed will go if the issues don’t register with them.

          Yes issues like selling our power generation assets to foreigners, Key breaking his promises on KiwiSaver and GST, and all our children and grandchildren moving to Australia for better pay are issues which clearly “have not registered”.

          But they will.

          Do you must make stuff up to lord over the poor peons who dare to challenge you? Because that statement is just 101 level wrong.

          We are a country of poor peons and serfs, with 5% or less of the population earning over $90,000 p.a., and most earning under $30,000 p.a.

    • Frank Macskasy 4.2

      Chris,

      At some stage voters will need to get their heads around one simple fact; a vote for Key/National = a vote for asset sales.

      If the voting public are as anti-asset sales as recent polls have suggested, whilst at the same time pro-Key – then they will have to confront this schizophrenic attitude and realise they cannot have both.

      November 26 IS crunch-day for the public.

      • Jenny 4.2.1

        .
        Privatisation – Globalisation – Financialisation.

        The three main strands of Neo-liberalism

        Time for Labour to cut another string?

        Labour has been accused of “trying to have it both ways” on free trade, after one of its MPs raised concerns over the outsourcing of labour to India.

      • It depends on how strongly against asset sales people are – asset sales may or may not be a major deciding factor. I have reservations but minor dabbling doesn’t concern me as much as a lot of other things.

        Trying to exaggerate asset sales as a prime election issue may suit some campaigns but it may not matter that much to many.

        Overall financial management is much more critical.

        Competency of leadership (or at least the perception of it) is also far more important.

  5. The Voice of Reason 5

    Re: the minor parties. Mana is not going to get another 2 pts. It’s already maxed out at .05, the same sort of figures other regional parties such as United Future and the Progressives get. If Hone can’t make an impression at a time when he was on the news every day for a couple of months, how’s he gonna build the vote by a factor of 5 before November? And even he miracles the party vote up to 2.5 % that only delivers 2 more seats, assuming he gets lucky and wins TTT again.

    And winning is not a given. Hone’s right to say that Labour won’t be able to put quite the same effort into the seat at the general election as they did during the by-election, but the same applies to him. If he wants to get another Mana candidate elected, he will need to campaign outside of the north, which puts his re-election at obvious risk.

    Winston’ vote will jump around until he actually starts campaigning. At the moment, he’s doing pretty well considering he’s not actually doing anything much. Don’t write him off just yet.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      People don’t Party vote UF or Progressive’s because they could just Party Vote National or Labour instead, which they do.

      However Mana has a constituency that doesn’t overlap with the others very much – there is some overlap with the Greens and a little overlap with the MP, but Mana is more distinct from those than UF or Progressives are from the other main parties.

      Also Mana will be getting most of it’s Party Vote from the Maori electorates, which have a long tradition of voting tactically: we may see MP electorate + Mana Party, or Labour electorate + Mana Party, or Mana electorate + Mana/Labour/MP Party vote. People who vote in Maori electorates are typically under-sampled in nationwide polls, further skewing the results.

      I’m actually not rating Winston’s chances any more. I think Mana arriving on the scene is just going to steal media attention away from Winston. He’s yester-years political rabble-rouser, Hone takes that mantle now.

      • felix 5.1.1

        Agree that Mana should be able to attract a different constituency.

        Now if only they could get a few more of them enrolled and turned out…

    • swordfish 5.2

      I wrote NZF off a long time ago. Can’t see any reason to change that opinion.

  6. Dion 6

    I doubt Hone will lose his seat, in a general election Maori voters will go back to their usual tactic of splitting the vote between the Labour party and Hone as an individual. The best thing about Mana will be if it can encourage more people to come out and vote.

  7. tsmithfield 7

    Hmmm…. Not only has the popularity of Key increased in this poll, the percentage of those who think the government is heading in the right direction has also increased. So I am not sure the left can take too much solace from this poll.

    • The Voice of Reason 7.1

      Hmmm … if you are talking about the Roy Morgan, the number who think the country is heading in the right direction fell by 2 points from 55.5 to 53.5%. At one point it was 71%, by the way.

      Whoops, edit: I’ve just spotted the NZH confidence rating and I stand corrected (but still right about the Roy Morgan).

  8. NickC 8

    “The TV3 poll has the NACT vs Lab/Green/NZF gap at 22% vs 9% in the latest Roy Morgan. I’ll tend to pay attention to the company that polls every fortnight to the one that polls once in a blue moon.” – Eddie

    Winnie’s big chance

    The TV1 and TV3 polls are pretty useless because they’re so infrequent that you can’t look at movements month by month and you can’t know if a given poll is an odd-ball out of line with the trends

    Trends good for Left, much work to do

    In fact if you search ‘poll’ in The Standard history you will find that the vast majority of the time authors on this site use Roy Morgans, because they to find them more reliable. So it’s very interesting when the Herald and Roy Morgan came out on the same day you choose to run with Herald and ignore Roy Morgan

    You don’t gain anything by this selective picking of polls Eddie, just delude your own supporters.

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      Yes, I was suspicious about this post of Eddie’s also, hence my #2 above.

      For someone with a supposed history of paying attention to Roy Morgan, he managed to completely ignore it – and I don’t think it being a ho-hum result is just a coincidence.

  9. Frank Macskasy 9

    Rodney Hide will be smiling quietly, looking at ACT’s current poll-rating…

  10. Zaphod Beeblebrox 10

    Whays happening in Epsom? The result there is as important as a 3-4% fall in the Nats vote

  11. when the polls get to a stable average of 8% difference or less, it’ll be anyones guess who the next government will be.

    we’ll see just how relaxed mr key will be then.

  12. I still want to know (if anyone else knows) how the polling companies are managing their Christchurch ‘quota’? Once again, June 13 was a real disruption. A lot of people would be in no mood or situation to answer polls.

  13. Support for Labour in Auckland at 40.5 per cent is higher than its overall party-vote support.

    And its support in the 18 to 39 age group is at 42.3 per cent, again a lot higher than its overall party-vote total.

    Both of those are interesting results. I wouldn’t have expected the second one in particular. Of course, both also mean that Labour is doing proportionately badly in the opposite constituencies (outside of Auckland and older than 40).

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      Youth unemployment is catastrophic

      And apparently a lot of them aren’t buying the line that being paid like second rate citizens will somehow land them a job.

      National, you have fraked yourself, thanks. But Key is a great guy, I hope he scores a spot hosting Breakfast. He’d be superb at it.

      • The Baron 13.1.1

        So if it wasn’t the removal youth rates that have led to a structural change in youth unemployment, yet one is clearly evident, do you want to propose your alternative theory as to what caused it?
        I know you must hate the idea of youth rates; but the cause and effect makes a whole pile of sense. Wanna try out your theory?

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1

          Structural youth unemployment is caused by structural high general unemployment.

          Older workers are preferred workers so they get the work and the youth don’t.

          With youth rates, a few more of the youth might get the work, and then the older workers would remain unemployed. However businesses are happy because they save money while the share of income of ordinary workers declines.

  14. David C 14

    This is one eyed spin.
    The Morgan poll shows a very clear trend away from Labour since Jan ’11.

    • Hanswurst 14.1

      On which planet? I see no change plus a lot of statistical noise, probably owing to the sample size / survey method and possibly variable availability of Christchurch residents.

    • lprent 14.2

      No it does not. I’d suggest that you get your eyes checked.

    • The Baron 14.3

      Of course it is. Eddie is the mouthpiece of the Goffice on this blog – either paid to be, or a diehard loyalist who just does it. I’d treat Eddie’s posts with the same grain of salt that standard authors encourage you to apply to Kiwiblog.

  15. Alice 15

    Well the thing is- are you happy with your life now?

    You will solve the case, you will save yourself, you will heal and you will be happy. You will see the light and you will have a purpose, a great purpose, you will grow, in front of our eyes.

    Your lucky.

  16. Sanctuary 16

    One thing about John Key’s popularity that constantly take me by surprise is how personalised it is. Criticise him within earshot of middling-bright aspirational mortgage belt types and they immediately stiffen and and take the criticism very personally indeed. Yet those same types are no longer bothering to defend National’s economic record. They now have more or less resorted to sticking their fingers in their ears and going “la la la la” rather than discuss the governments handling of the economy. Without Key, I would suggest Labour and National would be neck and neck.

    National though are risking the de-coupling of people’s attraction to the well watered cult of personality (carefully built up by the most modern propaganda techniques) around Key from the National Party itself. What I read from this poll – done by an AUCKLAND paper – is the same phenomena that swept Len Brown to power in Auckland is being picked up. National still has most of the politically unsophisticated swing provincial and self-identifying “aspirational” suburban vote tied up. But in Auckland, big sleeper issues like public transport are seriously eroding National’s support with students, “proper” urban dwellers and the more politically engaged. The question is, how much is this growing avalanche of anti-National support in Auckland being detected in polls which sample nation-wide?

    • MrSmith 16.1

      “Criticize him within earshot of middling-bright aspirational mortgage belt types and they immediately stiffen”
       
      Sanctuary, I have noticed the same thing, they’re still betting on the fact that if he can make that much money then he has to be the best Man for the job, anyone criticizing him of-course makes them look stupid, they have all been betting on him giving them the secret potion and making them all rich, but now may be getting sick of waiting, the doubt will be starting and that stiffness hopefully is a sign of that.

    • ZeeBop 16.2

      The election isn’t going to be polarized around personality, too many are hurting, small business know they need customers with money in their pocket, so I can’t see how Key however good the gloss can win in November. But even so, lets say it will be tight, when people realize that it will be tight and they need a strong majority for whoever gets into power, and look at how National are abusing power, lying, and spinning (tax cuts). I think we could see a landslide to Labour. It comes down to how fed up the nation is, how many realize that borrowing to live the dream only makes the dream harder to achieve – note how National borrowed more than was necessary! so sorry folks National vote won’t hold up, Labour has all the ideas.

  17. chris73 17

    Some people on here are going to be very dissapointed come election night (don’t worry though I’ll be finding some youtube links to cheer you up) since you’ll are getting your hopes up

  18. Jenny 18


    Trevor Mallard over at ‘Red Alert’ has a post on the latest Ipredict, that gives the first glimmer of a hope for a coalition to the left of Nact.

    John Key’s National Party would have the numbers with the support of the Act Party and either the Maori Party or UnitedFuture. It would also be possible to have a Labour/Greens/UnitedFuture/New Zealand First/Maori Party/Mana Party Government.

    Ipredict

    National Party supporter Monty, asks Trevor how this could work?

    Trev can you please tell us just how would Goff, or anyone for that matter would be able to hold together the beast of a Labour/Greens/UnitedFuture/New Zealand First/Maori Party/Mana Party Government. We know it would never last five minutes.

    Monty

    Hopefully this trend will strengthen and consolitdate, but even if it doesn’t – Just for argument’s sake, here’s my answer:

    It would require a leader with a bit of a rep. Someone hard nosed with street fighter smarts. Someone with a no nonsense motzi going for them. Someone with the pugnacious attitude to break through all obstacles in their way and the determination to make this work.
    Someone senior in the party with long experience. An individual who doesn’t suffer fools, or put up with nonsense. Someone willing to bang heads together, to get things done. But also having, when needed the diplomacy to smooth ruffled feathers, sooth worried brows and heal dinted egos. In short someone with the necessary skills to bring disparate partners together.

    They must be a communicator….

    Tech savvy, comfortable with the internet…

    With a wide network of contacts inside and outside the party.

    Able to argue and put their case powerfully before a mixed or even skeptical audience.

    Someone prepared to get their hands dirty, who actually enjoys the rough and tumble of coalition politics. Someone who refuses to paint themselves into a corner by ruling out this, or that, potential ally. Someone with a media profile.

    A Machiavellian strategist able to play one partner off against another if necessary.

    No shrinking violet.

    Someone well known and respected, maybe even a little feared.

    A real leader.

    Could Phil Goff be this man?

  19. Alice 19

    Money talks, yes but do you what truly inspires- SUCCESS AND CONFIDENCE.

    That is the true inspiration here.

    Triumphing against the odds, “EVERYONE” admires STRENGTH.

  20. Alice 20

    Remember it isn’t about winning as you see it; it is about ‘true’ talent, intellect, ability and about using the heart correctly. It isn’t a game, this is real life, and the only person your up against- is yourself (in your case anyway).

    And for your sake- I hope you do win, because you’re up against a hard one.

  21. Craig 21

    One wonders how well the centre-left could do if it was canvassed just how extreme Brash and ACT really are. We know that there’s already considerable discomfort out there with the Donald, and there’s bound to be a point of vulnerability that will make the party toxic to swing voters- and thereby drag the Nats down if they continue to assert the wisdom of a coalition with them. Much will depend on who they select for Epsom- a serious candidate like Aaron Bhatnagar, who could comfortly wipe the floor with Banks*; or a wingnut like Denise Krum or Ewan McQueen; or an unknown quantity like Paul Goldsmith, past hagiographer of Banks and Brash alike.

    *And let’s face it. Urban liberal seat, sock con candidate. Bad fit, je pense.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 21.1

      The defection of Hone and the usurping of Hide put together are potentially fatal for National. Nobody (except the extreme 2% of right wing wackos) want a Don-Key government. If the Maori Party are reduced to 1 or 2 seats only that becomes more likely. There are a lot of people who would think twice about voting for the Don-Key.

      In any case it would be a bit hard for Tariana and Pita to justify going into govt with Brash but I wouldn’t put it past them to accept prgmatism over principle.

      • ZeeBop 21.1.1

        Maori are pragmatic and so will likely sit on the cross benches in November, as they have ‘worked’ with National in the past and wish to ‘regroup’. Anyone whose read about the Maori wars pretty much knows Maori are capable strategists. I can quite easily see Maori voters splitting their vote, giving their seat to Maori party and their list to Mana. If Labour voters do the same, vote Labour in the seat and give the list to Mana or Green, then National are history as government.

      • ianmac 21.1.2

        It is possible that National (Joyce) engineered the Act takeover so National must have a strategy in place. Yes?

        • ZeeBop 21.1.2.1

          Strategy? Vote for child identity fraud cover up? ACT were dead in the water under Hide. The whole story was about saving the brand by moving Hide out he side door. It didn’t work, moving damaged goods into ACT from National, why would ACT voters vote Brash/Brown when they can vote for Key????

          • ianmac 21.1.2.1.1

            Because Act brings in a few more MPs and also they are there to carry the can while making Key seem like a moderate. It worked before. Evidenced by the previous call in Epson for Nats to vote for Hide.

  22. randal 22

    the governments true coloutrs are beginning to show and the public dont like it.
    new zealanders can take the truth but they dont like smarminess, lies and outright pelf.
    that they cant abide.

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