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Herald shows gap narrowing

Written By: - Date published: 12:05 pm, July 1st, 2011 - 58 comments
Categories: act, election 2011, greens, labour, national - Tags:

The latest Herald poll shows Labour + Greens at 42.7%, with National + ACT at 53.1% – the gap is down to 10.4% from 16.9% in May. That confirms the trend we’re seeing in the Roy Morgans as well. Interesting to note that the gap is 17% this point before the last election. Continued progress and focus on the big issues will see victory for the Left.

In minor party news: It looks like New Zealand First isn’t going to get to 5%, falling back to 1.2%. Mana registers for the first time at 0.5%. Expect its support to grow by a couple of percent in coming months.

58 comments on “Herald shows gap narrowing”

  1. vidiot 1

    Not surprising the rise with the amount of face time Kelvin Davis was getting in TTT – it’s just a pity he didn’t win.

    Now if only he was leader, perhaps then voter apathy to Labour might reduce.

    • swordfish 1.1

      Would it kill the Herald to provide a table with the full demographic and geographic Party-Vote breakdowns ?????

      They’ve obviously gathered this information so why not publish it for…..you know…..the friggin readers, for Christ-sake ?????

      • Colonial Viper 1.1.1

        Meh only you bleeding heart liberals worry about things like graphs and data tables.

        It’s so unnecessary.

        And it takes up advertising space.

  2. Lanthanide 2

    Let’s just ignore the Roy Morgan poll taken over the same time period where nothing changed from the last one, right?

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4681/

    • The Voice of Reason 2.1

      Not so, Lanthanide. Roy Morgan tells us that confidence in Key’s government continues to ebb away. That’s crucial for attracting swinging/undecided voters to the left. The main positive from the NZH poll is that there is a significant rise in support for Labour in Auckland. And that’s where elections are won and lost.

      • Portion Control 2.1.1

        It’s called the government confidence rating but the question isn’t about the government. It’s whether the country is heading in the right direction, or seriously the wrong direction.

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1

          It’s called the government confidence rating but the question isn’t about the government.

          Which reminds me of “the Budget said that there would be 170,000 new jobs, but the Government didn’t say that there would be 170,000 new jobs”.

    • lprent 2.2

      It was mentioned in OpenMike. I think that there was a post on the Morgan poll a week or so again. Remaining steady isn’t exactly that interesting eh…

      I believe that it has been mentioned many times that the authors don’t try to write about every poll. It is rather pointless because absolute numbers are pretty useless. They will write about the ones that find interesting for trends in polls taken from single companies.

      In this case there is a significant difference between a poll taken last month (immediately after the budget from memory) and this month from the same poll. That is interesting.

      The only real relevance of the the Morgan poll is that it has showed that closing of the gap as well, just not quite as much, and in polls over the 6 weeks..

      • Lanthanide 2.2.1

        I agree entirely with your sentiments, but at the same time, I think if an important poll has just been released and you’re making a comment about it, you should at least mention the existence of the second poll that was published about the same time.

        Just my opinion, though, and obviously authors are free to right what they like – and I’m free to think they should have written more.

        Also the Morgan poll I’m talking about it was released 30th June, as in yesterday. So anything posted weeks ago was talking about a different poll.

  3. Rich 3

    There is, I think, about a 4% expected error on the vote of smaller parties due to sample size. which means that basically anything a poll tells you about their fortunes is random.

    • Roger 3.1

      Not quite, one thing that is not often mentioned is that the margin of error reported is usually what it would be when a party or individual is polling at 50%. The margin of error actually decreases as you get into the lower percentages. It’s all here:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

  4. Chris 4

    Is this the same poll that see’s Key getting more popular then ever ?

    “And John Key’s popularity as preferred prime minister has risen….backing for Mr Key as preferred prime minister has risen from 67.7 per cent last month to 70.6 per cent of decided respondents.

    And so the left continue to practice the politics of envy and negativity while they march towards oblivion in November.

    Some one said socialist are not reality based umm.. can’t remember who.. never mind.

    • lprent 4.1

      Yep. Looks like John Key is getting more popular whilst his party is getting less popular. Interesting isn’t it. Just think what he could do if he ditched the dunderheads in his cabinet who are holding him back… I can see a Canute moment coming as he changes NZ’s economy all on his own (by putting in a cycleway?). Or maybe it would allow him to walk on water..

      Roughly speaking, people tend to vote for parties more than they do for the leader of a party when it comes to being close to an election. Which is why you tend to get interesting changes in the actual vote compared to the polls (even those close to election). As Audrey Young said…

      Five months before the last election, National was polling 54.9 per cent and it eventually won 44.93 per cent of the vote.

      I’d add that one of the most useless measures for determining the outcome of an election is the personal popularity of the leaders. However political idiots like yourself really don’t bother thinking about the past. Instead you like making stupid myths – as is quite evident from your comment.

      • The Baron 4.1.1

        Jesus Lynn, personal popularity of Helen was one of the factors that saved labour in 2005.
        People that think as much about politics as you and me don’t mind the leaders much; but we are few in the greater scheme of things. For the less informed average punter, leader perceptions absolutely matter; and that preferred prime minister stat shows how many the lesser informed will go if the issues don’t register with them.
        Do you must make stuff up to lord over the poor peons who dare to challenge you? Because that statement is just 101 level wrong.

        • Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1

          and that preferred prime minister stat shows how many the lesser informed will go if the issues don’t register with them.

          Yes issues like selling our power generation assets to foreigners, Key breaking his promises on KiwiSaver and GST, and all our children and grandchildren moving to Australia for better pay are issues which clearly “have not registered”.

          But they will.

          Do you must make stuff up to lord over the poor peons who dare to challenge you? Because that statement is just 101 level wrong.

          We are a country of poor peons and serfs, with 5% or less of the population earning over $90,000 p.a., and most earning under $30,000 p.a.

    • Frank Macskasy 4.2

      Chris,

      At some stage voters will need to get their heads around one simple fact; a vote for Key/National = a vote for asset sales.

      If the voting public are as anti-asset sales as recent polls have suggested, whilst at the same time pro-Key – then they will have to confront this schizophrenic attitude and realise they cannot have both.

      November 26 IS crunch-day for the public.

      • Jenny 4.2.1

        .
        Privatisation – Globalisation – Financialisation.

        The three main strands of Neo-liberalism

        Time for Labour to cut another string?

        Labour has been accused of “trying to have it both ways” on free trade, after one of its MPs raised concerns over the outsourcing of labour to India.

      • Pete George 4.2.2

        It depends on how strongly against asset sales people are – asset sales may or may not be a major deciding factor. I have reservations but minor dabbling doesn’t concern me as much as a lot of other things.

        Trying to exaggerate asset sales as a prime election issue may suit some campaigns but it may not matter that much to many.

        Overall financial management is much more critical.

        Competency of leadership (or at least the perception of it) is also far more important.

  5. The Voice of Reason 5

    Re: the minor parties. Mana is not going to get another 2 pts. It’s already maxed out at .05, the same sort of figures other regional parties such as United Future and the Progressives get. If Hone can’t make an impression at a time when he was on the news every day for a couple of months, how’s he gonna build the vote by a factor of 5 before November? And even he miracles the party vote up to 2.5 % that only delivers 2 more seats, assuming he gets lucky and wins TTT again.

    And winning is not a given. Hone’s right to say that Labour won’t be able to put quite the same effort into the seat at the general election as they did during the by-election, but the same applies to him. If he wants to get another Mana candidate elected, he will need to campaign outside of the north, which puts his re-election at obvious risk.

    Winston’ vote will jump around until he actually starts campaigning. At the moment, he’s doing pretty well considering he’s not actually doing anything much. Don’t write him off just yet.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      People don’t Party vote UF or Progressive’s because they could just Party Vote National or Labour instead, which they do.

      However Mana has a constituency that doesn’t overlap with the others very much – there is some overlap with the Greens and a little overlap with the MP, but Mana is more distinct from those than UF or Progressives are from the other main parties.

      Also Mana will be getting most of it’s Party Vote from the Maori electorates, which have a long tradition of voting tactically: we may see MP electorate + Mana Party, or Labour electorate + Mana Party, or Mana electorate + Mana/Labour/MP Party vote. People who vote in Maori electorates are typically under-sampled in nationwide polls, further skewing the results.

      I’m actually not rating Winston’s chances any more. I think Mana arriving on the scene is just going to steal media attention away from Winston. He’s yester-years political rabble-rouser, Hone takes that mantle now.

      • felix 5.1.1

        Agree that Mana should be able to attract a different constituency.

        Now if only they could get a few more of them enrolled and turned out…

    • swordfish 5.2

      I wrote NZF off a long time ago. Can’t see any reason to change that opinion.

  6. Dion 6

    I doubt Hone will lose his seat, in a general election Maori voters will go back to their usual tactic of splitting the vote between the Labour party and Hone as an individual. The best thing about Mana will be if it can encourage more people to come out and vote.

  7. tsmithfield 7

    Hmmm…. Not only has the popularity of Key increased in this poll, the percentage of those who think the government is heading in the right direction has also increased. So I am not sure the left can take too much solace from this poll.

    • The Voice of Reason 7.1

      Hmmm … if you are talking about the Roy Morgan, the number who think the country is heading in the right direction fell by 2 points from 55.5 to 53.5%. At one point it was 71%, by the way.

      Whoops, edit: I’ve just spotted the NZH confidence rating and I stand corrected (but still right about the Roy Morgan).

  8. NickC 8

    “The TV3 poll has the NACT vs Lab/Green/NZF gap at 22% vs 9% in the latest Roy Morgan. I’ll tend to pay attention to the company that polls every fortnight to the one that polls once in a blue moon.” – Eddie

    Winnie’s big chance

    The TV1 and TV3 polls are pretty useless because they’re so infrequent that you can’t look at movements month by month and you can’t know if a given poll is an odd-ball out of line with the trends

    Trends good for Left, much work to do

    In fact if you search ‘poll’ in The Standard history you will find that the vast majority of the time authors on this site use Roy Morgans, because they to find them more reliable. So it’s very interesting when the Herald and Roy Morgan came out on the same day you choose to run with Herald and ignore Roy Morgan

    You don’t gain anything by this selective picking of polls Eddie, just delude your own supporters.

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      Yes, I was suspicious about this post of Eddie’s also, hence my #2 above.

      For someone with a supposed history of paying attention to Roy Morgan, he managed to completely ignore it – and I don’t think it being a ho-hum result is just a coincidence.

  9. Frank Macskasy 9

    Rodney Hide will be smiling quietly, looking at ACT’s current poll-rating…

  10. Zaphod Beeblebrox 10

    Whays happening in Epsom? The result there is as important as a 3-4% fall in the Nats vote

  11. when the polls get to a stable average of 8% difference or less, it’ll be anyones guess who the next government will be.

    we’ll see just how relaxed mr key will be then.

  12. I still want to know (if anyone else knows) how the polling companies are managing their Christchurch ‘quota’? Once again, June 13 was a real disruption. A lot of people would be in no mood or situation to answer polls.

  13. Support for Labour in Auckland at 40.5 per cent is higher than its overall party-vote support.

    And its support in the 18 to 39 age group is at 42.3 per cent, again a lot higher than its overall party-vote total.

    Both of those are interesting results. I wouldn’t have expected the second one in particular. Of course, both also mean that Labour is doing proportionately badly in the opposite constituencies (outside of Auckland and older than 40).

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      Youth unemployment is catastrophic

      And apparently a lot of them aren’t buying the line that being paid like second rate citizens will somehow land them a job.

      National, you have fraked yourself, thanks. But Key is a great guy, I hope he scores a spot hosting Breakfast. He’d be superb at it.

      • The Baron 13.1.1

        So if it wasn’t the removal youth rates that have led to a structural change in youth unemployment, yet one is clearly evident, do you want to propose your alternative theory as to what caused it?
        I know you must hate the idea of youth rates; but the cause and effect makes a whole pile of sense. Wanna try out your theory?

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1

          Structural youth unemployment is caused by structural high general unemployment.

          Older workers are preferred workers so they get the work and the youth don’t.

          With youth rates, a few more of the youth might get the work, and then the older workers would remain unemployed. However businesses are happy because they save money while the share of income of ordinary workers declines.

  14. David C 14

    This is one eyed spin.
    The Morgan poll shows a very clear trend away from Labour since Jan ’11.

    • Hanswurst 14.1

      On which planet? I see no change plus a lot of statistical noise, probably owing to the sample size / survey method and possibly variable availability of Christchurch residents.

    • lprent 14.2

      No it does not. I’d suggest that you get your eyes checked.

    • The Baron 14.3

      Of course it is. Eddie is the mouthpiece of the Goffice on this blog – either paid to be, or a diehard loyalist who just does it. I’d treat Eddie’s posts with the same grain of salt that standard authors encourage you to apply to Kiwiblog.

  15. Alice 15

    Well the thing is- are you happy with your life now?

    You will solve the case, you will save yourself, you will heal and you will be happy. You will see the light and you will have a purpose, a great purpose, you will grow, in front of our eyes.

    Your lucky.

  16. Sanctuary 16

    One thing about John Key’s popularity that constantly take me by surprise is how personalised it is. Criticise him within earshot of middling-bright aspirational mortgage belt types and they immediately stiffen and and take the criticism very personally indeed. Yet those same types are no longer bothering to defend National’s economic record. They now have more or less resorted to sticking their fingers in their ears and going “la la la la” rather than discuss the governments handling of the economy. Without Key, I would suggest Labour and National would be neck and neck.

    National though are risking the de-coupling of people’s attraction to the well watered cult of personality (carefully built up by the most modern propaganda techniques) around Key from the National Party itself. What I read from this poll – done by an AUCKLAND paper – is the same phenomena that swept Len Brown to power in Auckland is being picked up. National still has most of the politically unsophisticated swing provincial and self-identifying “aspirational” suburban vote tied up. But in Auckland, big sleeper issues like public transport are seriously eroding National’s support with students, “proper” urban dwellers and the more politically engaged. The question is, how much is this growing avalanche of anti-National support in Auckland being detected in polls which sample nation-wide?

    • MrSmith 16.1

      “Criticize him within earshot of middling-bright aspirational mortgage belt types and they immediately stiffen”
       
      Sanctuary, I have noticed the same thing, they’re still betting on the fact that if he can make that much money then he has to be the best Man for the job, anyone criticizing him of-course makes them look stupid, they have all been betting on him giving them the secret potion and making them all rich, but now may be getting sick of waiting, the doubt will be starting and that stiffness hopefully is a sign of that.

    • ZeeBop 16.2

      The election isn’t going to be polarized around personality, too many are hurting, small business know they need customers with money in their pocket, so I can’t see how Key however good the gloss can win in November. But even so, lets say it will be tight, when people realize that it will be tight and they need a strong majority for whoever gets into power, and look at how National are abusing power, lying, and spinning (tax cuts). I think we could see a landslide to Labour. It comes down to how fed up the nation is, how many realize that borrowing to live the dream only makes the dream harder to achieve – note how National borrowed more than was necessary! so sorry folks National vote won’t hold up, Labour has all the ideas.

  17. chris73 17

    Some people on here are going to be very dissapointed come election night (don’t worry though I’ll be finding some youtube links to cheer you up) since you’ll are getting your hopes up

  18. Jenny 18


    Trevor Mallard over at ‘Red Alert’ has a post on the latest Ipredict, that gives the first glimmer of a hope for a coalition to the left of Nact.

    John Key’s National Party would have the numbers with the support of the Act Party and either the Maori Party or UnitedFuture. It would also be possible to have a Labour/Greens/UnitedFuture/New Zealand First/Maori Party/Mana Party Government.

    Ipredict

    National Party supporter Monty, asks Trevor how this could work?

    Trev can you please tell us just how would Goff, or anyone for that matter would be able to hold together the beast of a Labour/Greens/UnitedFuture/New Zealand First/Maori Party/Mana Party Government. We know it would never last five minutes.

    Monty

    Hopefully this trend will strengthen and consolitdate, but even if it doesn’t – Just for argument’s sake, here’s my answer:

    It would require a leader with a bit of a rep. Someone hard nosed with street fighter smarts. Someone with a no nonsense motzi going for them. Someone with the pugnacious attitude to break through all obstacles in their way and the determination to make this work.
    Someone senior in the party with long experience. An individual who doesn’t suffer fools, or put up with nonsense. Someone willing to bang heads together, to get things done. But also having, when needed the diplomacy to smooth ruffled feathers, sooth worried brows and heal dinted egos. In short someone with the necessary skills to bring disparate partners together.

    They must be a communicator….

    Tech savvy, comfortable with the internet…

    With a wide network of contacts inside and outside the party.

    Able to argue and put their case powerfully before a mixed or even skeptical audience.

    Someone prepared to get their hands dirty, who actually enjoys the rough and tumble of coalition politics. Someone who refuses to paint themselves into a corner by ruling out this, or that, potential ally. Someone with a media profile.

    A Machiavellian strategist able to play one partner off against another if necessary.

    No shrinking violet.

    Someone well known and respected, maybe even a little feared.

    A real leader.

    Could Phil Goff be this man?

  19. Alice 19

    Money talks, yes but do you what truly inspires- SUCCESS AND CONFIDENCE.

    That is the true inspiration here.

    Triumphing against the odds, “EVERYONE” admires STRENGTH.

  20. Alice 20

    Remember it isn’t about winning as you see it; it is about ‘true’ talent, intellect, ability and about using the heart correctly. It isn’t a game, this is real life, and the only person your up against- is yourself (in your case anyway).

    And for your sake- I hope you do win, because you’re up against a hard one.

  21. Craig 21

    One wonders how well the centre-left could do if it was canvassed just how extreme Brash and ACT really are. We know that there’s already considerable discomfort out there with the Donald, and there’s bound to be a point of vulnerability that will make the party toxic to swing voters- and thereby drag the Nats down if they continue to assert the wisdom of a coalition with them. Much will depend on who they select for Epsom- a serious candidate like Aaron Bhatnagar, who could comfortly wipe the floor with Banks*; or a wingnut like Denise Krum or Ewan McQueen; or an unknown quantity like Paul Goldsmith, past hagiographer of Banks and Brash alike.

    *And let’s face it. Urban liberal seat, sock con candidate. Bad fit, je pense.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 21.1

      The defection of Hone and the usurping of Hide put together are potentially fatal for National. Nobody (except the extreme 2% of right wing wackos) want a Don-Key government. If the Maori Party are reduced to 1 or 2 seats only that becomes more likely. There are a lot of people who would think twice about voting for the Don-Key.

      In any case it would be a bit hard for Tariana and Pita to justify going into govt with Brash but I wouldn’t put it past them to accept prgmatism over principle.

      • ZeeBop 21.1.1

        Maori are pragmatic and so will likely sit on the cross benches in November, as they have ‘worked’ with National in the past and wish to ‘regroup’. Anyone whose read about the Maori wars pretty much knows Maori are capable strategists. I can quite easily see Maori voters splitting their vote, giving their seat to Maori party and their list to Mana. If Labour voters do the same, vote Labour in the seat and give the list to Mana or Green, then National are history as government.

      • ianmac 21.1.2

        It is possible that National (Joyce) engineered the Act takeover so National must have a strategy in place. Yes?

        • ZeeBop 21.1.2.1

          Strategy? Vote for child identity fraud cover up? ACT were dead in the water under Hide. The whole story was about saving the brand by moving Hide out he side door. It didn’t work, moving damaged goods into ACT from National, why would ACT voters vote Brash/Brown when they can vote for Key????

          • ianmac 21.1.2.1.1

            Because Act brings in a few more MPs and also they are there to carry the can while making Key seem like a moderate. It worked before. Evidenced by the previous call in Epson for Nats to vote for Hide.

  22. randal 22

    the governments true coloutrs are beginning to show and the public dont like it.
    new zealanders can take the truth but they dont like smarminess, lies and outright pelf.
    that they cant abide.

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    A lot has happened since the UN’s report on 1.5ºC was released in October 2018. New Zealand’s Zero Carbon Bill has passed, and enshrines the 1.5ºC goal in law. The UK and France have also legally strengthened their targets to Net Zero 2050. The School Strike For Climate and Extinction ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    4 days ago
  • Corruption as usual
    Next year is an election year, and Labour needs money to fund its campaign. So naturally, they're selling access:Labour is charging wealthy business figures $1500-a-head to lunch with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at its annual conference later this month. [...] On the weekend beginning November 29th, around 800 delegates will ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Fairer rentals
    Yesterday the government announced its changes to tenancy laws, including an end to no-cause evictions, limits on rent increases, and anonyminity for tenants who defend their rights against bad landlords (sadly necessary because landlords are scum who maintain blacklists of "uppity" tenants). They're all good moves, and have resulted in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Another NZDF coverup
    In 2003 New Zealand sent a Provincial Reconstruction Team to Afghanistan to support America's doomed war there. While there, they conducted regular weapons practice on local firing ranges, littering the landscape with unexploded ammunition. These ranges weren't secure - they're on land used by locals for animal herding - so ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A loss for the Greens
    Green MP Gareth Hughes has announced he will retire at the election. Its understandable - he's been there ten years, and wants to actually see his children grow up rather than miss it while drowning in the toxic parliamentary sewer. But his departure is also a huge loss for the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • New era for Ngāti Kuri and Auckland Museum
    Words and images by Jacqui Gibson Gone are Auckland Museum’s days of doing science using a museum-centric academic approach, after Māori land rights holders Ngāti Kuri gave the museum an ultimatum.
    Tom Trnski holding a fossilised whale tooth from the Far North.Aussie-born Head of Natural Sciences at Auckland Museum ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    4 days ago
  • Circling vultures: Why MediaWorks TV is really in trouble
    MediaWorks announced in October 2019 that it intended to sell off its struggling television business and cancel or cut back on several popular local programmes, including New Zealand Today, Married at First Sight New Zealand and 7 Days. Its radio and outdoor advertising arms are currently performing well, but MediaWorks’ ...
    Briefing PapersBy Peter Thompson
    4 days ago
  • Scary Opinium Poll
    Westminster voting intention:CON: 44% (+3)LAB: 28% (-1)LDEM: 14% (-1)BREX: 6% (-)via @OpiniumResearch, surveyed this weekChgs. w/ 08 Nov— Britain Elects (@britainelects) 16 November 2019 This, of course, doesn't look good.  Labour have been chucking big, headline grabbing policies left, right and centre ... Well, maybe not right.  Left, left ...
    5 days ago
  • A coward’s ploy.
    Some readers may remember that I mentioned last year that I was applying for NZ citizenship. I filled out the paperwork and had my original citizenship interview in February. Everything went well until they discovered that, because I had spent five months in the US in 2017, I had not ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Left censorship and exclusion against gender-critical women: a Marxist critique
    by Deirdre O’Neill It is becoming quite acceptable for certain sections of the left to declare that people like me – women who are ‘gender critical’ – should not be allowed in leftist or anarchist spaces. Leaving aside the arrogance and implicit authoritarianism of this claim, its lack of critical ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • “Uncertainty” can be better solved with a better grasp of life’s inherent complexities…
    There is an article in The Conversation, written by Jeremy P. Shapiro (Adjunct Assistant Professor of Psychological Sciences, Case Western Reserve University), about what he sees as the psychologically-based underpinnings of three main matters that seem to vex people all around the planet. The article is titled “The Thinking ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    6 days ago
  • Citizens vs the Rogue Deep State
    . .   Blogger Martyn Bradbury has won his case against unreasonable search and surveillance against the NZ Police; and subsequent Police attempts to produce evidence in secrecy, in a closed Court. His case highlights a disturbing growing trend in Aotearoa New Zealand for State power to be used against ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago
  • Massey University’s free speech policy double-plus-good
    The Committee of Disobedient Women has intercepted an email from Dr Emma Eejut, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Massey University to the university’s Vice-Chancellor, Jan Thomas. Dear Jan, Thank you for your courageous move.  I think 10 pages of blether** should tie any of the students game enough to try holding ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • Unacceptable
    That's the only response to the findings of the Ombudsman's investigation into LGOIMA practices at the Christchurch City Council:My investigation identified serious concerns about the Council’s leadership and culture, and its commitment to openness and transparency. In particular, Council staff raised concerns with me about various methods employed by some ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • There is what corruption looks like
    NZ First seems to be nakedly trying to enrich itself from public office:A powerful New Zealand First figure helped establish a forestry company that then pushed for money from two key funding streams controlled by a New Zealand First Minister. An RNZ investigation has found Brian Henry, lawyer for Winston ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Escape from Manus Island
    Behrouz Boochani is an award winning author and journalist. He is also a refugee, who for the past six years has been detained in Australia's offshore gulag on Manus Island, and in Papua New Guinea. But last night, with the cooperation of the WORD Christchurch festival and Amnesty International, he ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • When World’s Collide.
    Different Strokes: If a multicultural immigration policy imposes no obligation on immigrant communities to acknowledge and ultimately embrace their host nation’s most cherished traditions and values, then how is that nation to prevent itself from being reduced to a collection of inward-looking and self-replicating ethnic and cultural enclaves?THE COALITION GOVERNMENT’S ...
    1 week ago
  • Could There Be Method In Massey University’s Madness?
    Protective Zone: Reading the rules and guidelines released by Massey University, it is impossible to avoid the conclusion that its governing body considers the whole concept of free speech a disruptive threat to the orderly imparting of orthodox academic knowledge.IN TRUE ORWELLIAN fashion, Massey University has announced its commitment to ...
    1 week ago
  • How does poor air quality from bushfire smoke affect our health?
    Brian Oliver, University of Technology Sydney New South Wales and Queensland are in the grip of a devastating bushfire emergency, which has tragically resulted in the loss of homes and lives. But the smoke produced can affect many more people not immediately impacted by the fires – even people many ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: We need more trees, not less
    Farmers held a hate-march on Parliament today, complete with MAGA hats, gun-nut signs, and gendered insults. While supposedly about a grab-bag of issues - including, weirdly, mental health - it was clear that the protest was about one thing, and one thing only: climate change. And specifically, forestry "destroying" rural ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Holy bin chickens: ancient Egyptians tamed wild ibis for sacrifice
    Sally Wasef, Griffith University and David Lambert, Griffith University These days, not many Aussies consider the ibis a particularly admirable creature. But these birds, now colloquially referred to as “bin chickens” due to their notorious scavenging antics, have a grandiose and important place in history – ancient Egyptian history, to ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • The IGIS annual report: Dead letters and secret law
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security released their annual report today, and I've been busy reading through it. In amongst the usual review of what they've been doing all year, there's a few interesting bits. For example, a discussion on "agency retention and disposal of information", which points out that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A referendum on bigotry
    The End of Life Choice Bill passed its third reading last night, 69 - 51. Thanks to a compromise with NZ First - which looks to have been necessary on the final numbers - the commencement of the bill will be subject to a referendum. Given the ugliness of the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Why municipal waste-to-energy incineration is not the answer to NZ’s plastic waste crisis
    Trisia Farrelly, Massey University New Zealand is ranked the third-most-wasteful country in the OECD. New Zealanders produce five times the global daily average of waste per person – and they are getting more wasteful, producing 35% more than a decade ago. These statistics are likely to get worse following China’s ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Political parties and GMOs: we all need to move on
    Recently more than 150 post-graduate students and young scientists presented an open letter to the Green Party via The Spinoff, encouraging them to reconsider their position on genetic modification. Their target is tackling climate change issues.[1] Can any party continue to be dismissive about genetic modification (GM) contributing to ...
    SciBlogsBy Grant Jacobs
    1 week ago
  • Class, Identity Politics and Transgender Ideology
    by Deirdre O’Neill Under Thatcher and then Blair and continuing up until our contemporary moment, the working class has seen its culture slowly and progressively destroyed. The change from an industrial society to a service society produced a marked shift in focus from the working class as the backbone of ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Irony
    Since 2013, the Australian government has detained refugees without trial in Pacific gulags, where they are abused, tortured, and driven to suicide. The policy is not just an abuse of human rights and possible crime against humanity; it has also had a corrosive effect on the states Australia uses as ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An age of protest.
    It seems fair to say that we currently live in a problematic political moment in world history. Democracies are in decline and dictatorships are on the rise. Primordial, sectarian and post-modern divisions have re-emerged, are on the rise or have been accentuated by political evolutions of the moment such as ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Another captured agency
    Last month, Greenpeace head Russel Norman surrendered his speaking slot at an EPA conference to student climate activist Sorcha Carr, who told the EPA exactly what she thought of them. It was a bold move, which confronted both regulators and polluters (or, as the EPA calls them, "stakeholders") with the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • NZ First’s dodgy loans
    The core principle supposedly underlying New Zealand's electoral finance regime is transparency: parties can accept large donations from rich people wanting to buy policy, but only if they tell the public they've been bought. Most parties abide by this, so we know that TOP was wholly-owned by Gareth Morgan, and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day: The choice on End of Life Choice
    Today is a Member's Day, probably the second-to-last one of the year, and its a big one, with the Third Reading of David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill. last Member's Day it was reported back from committee, after MPs voted narrowly to make it subject to a (rules TBA) ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • How growth in population and consumption drives planetary change
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz The growth of the human population over the last 70 ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • The disappearing Women …
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In her excellent oral submission to the Abortion reform select committee on 31st October on behalf of Otago University’s Department of Public Health, historian and public health researcher Hera Cook stated: “We would ask that the committee not use the term ‘pregnant persons’ and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • “A Passage to India”: enduring art in changing times
    by Don Franks In 1957, E M Forster wrote, of his greatest work: “The India described in ‘A Passage to India’ no longer exists either politically or socially. Change had begun even at the time the book was published ( 1924) and during the following quarter of a century it ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Contemptuous
    The Referendums Framework Bill was due back from select committee today. But there's no report on it. Instead, the bill has been bounced back to the House under Standing order 29593) because the Committee didn't bother to produce one. They probably tried. But given the membership of the committee (which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Zero Carbon: It’s not just a good idea, it’s the law
    Two years into New Zealand’s Labour-led government, the long-delayed Zero Carbon Bill became law on 7 November. Passed essentially unanimously, the lengthy public debates and political manoeuvring faded away until the final passage was even anticlimactic: Flipping through the @nzstuff @DomPost I was starting to wonder if I’d dreamt ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: What happens next?
    Now the Zero Carbon Bill is law, what's next? Obviously, the ETS changes currently before select committee are going to be the next battleground. But we're also going to get a good idea of where we're going, and if the progress the Zero Carbon Act promises is good enough, during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate change will fuel bush fires
    Grant Pearce The effects of the current Australian bushfires in New South Wales and Queensland (and also again in California) are devastating and far-reaching. To date, the fires have resulted in several lives being lost and many homes and properties destroyed. Here in New Zealand, the impacts have been only ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Participation rates
    A passing comment in a post the other day about the labour force participation rates of older people prompted me to pull down the fuller data and see what we could see about various participation rates over the decades since the HLFS began in 1986.   As it happens, the ...
    SciBlogsBy Michael Reddell
    1 week ago
  • Not So Much “OK Boomer” As “OK Ruling Class”.
    Distract And Divert: The rise of what we have come to call “Identity Politics” represents the ideological manifestation of the ruling class’s objective need to destroy class politics, and of the middle-class’s subjective need to justify their participation in the process.THE RELIEF of the ruling class can only be imagined. ...
    1 week ago
  • Asking for it …
    "I saw a newspaper picture,From the political campaignA woman was kissing a child,Who was obviously in pain.She spills with compassion,As that young child'sFace in her hands she gripsCan you imagine all that greed and avariceComing down on that child's lips?" ...
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand’s Poor Pandemic Preparedness According to the Global Health Security Index
    Dr Matt Boyd, Prof Michael Baker, Prof Nick Wilson The Global Health Security Index which considers pandemic threats has just been published. Unfortunately, NZ scores approximately half marks (54/100), coming in 35th in the world rankings – far behind Australia. This poor result suggests that the NZ Government needs to ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Thank Winston
    The Zero Carbon Act is inadequate, with a weak methane target designed to give farmers a free ride. But it turns out it could have been worse: Climate Change Minister James Shaw was so desperate to get National on board, he wanted to gut that target, and leave it in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Illicit markets and Bali Booze
    The Herald reprints an Australian story on a couple of tragic deaths in Bali from drinking cocktails that had methanol in them.  The story argues that methanol is likely the result of home distillation. But what the young tourists were experiencing was far from a hangover. They’d consumed a toxic cocktail ...
    SciBlogsBy Eric Crampton
    2 weeks ago
  • This is not what armed police are for
    Last month, the police announced a trial of specialist roaming armed units, which would drive round (poor, brown) areas in armoured SUVs, armed to the teeth. When they announced the trial, they told us it was about having armed police "ready to attend major incidents at any time if needed". ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Spain’s failed electoral gamble
    Spain went to the polls today in the second elections this year, after the Socialists (who had come to power in a confidence vote, then gone to the polls in April) rejected the offer of a coalition with the left-wing PoDemos, and instead decided to gamble n a better outcome ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The astroturf party
    National has finally rolled out its "BlueGreen" astroturf party, fronted by an array of former nats and people who were dumped by the Greens for not being Green enough. Its initial pitch is described by Stuff as "very business-friendly", and its priorities are what you'd expect: conservation, predator-free funding, a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • How to cheat at university
    A couple of days ago I attended (and spoke at) the University of Waikato’s “LearnFest” event. There were lots of talks and sessions on very diverse aspects of teaching, mostly at tertiary level. One was by Myra Williamson from Te Piringa Faculty of Law here at Waikato, on Contract Cheating ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    2 weeks ago
  • How NZ was put on world maps using a transit of Mercury
    There will be a transit of Mercury – the planet Mercury will pass across the face of the Sun – taking place at sunrise in New Zealand on Tuesday, 12th November. It was by observing such an event 250 years ago that James Cook and his scientist colleagues were able ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    2 weeks ago
  • Georgina Beyer: We need to be able to talk without being offended
    Since becoming the world’s first openly transexual mayor and member of parliament, Georgina Beyer has been recognised as a trailblazer for trans rights. Daphna Whitmore talks with her about where she sees the current trans movement We start out talking about legislation the government put on hold that would have ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • The anti-fluoride brigade won’t be erecting billboards about this study
    If FFNZ really put their faith in “Top Medical Journals” they would now be amending their billboards to recognise new research results. Image from FFNZ but updated to agree with the latest research. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Chosen To Rule? What Sort Of Christian Is Chris Luxon?
    National Messiah? Chris Luxon identifies himself as an evangelical Christian. If he is genuine in this self-characterisation, then he will take every opportunity his public office provides to proselytise on behalf of his faith. He will also feel obliged to bear witness against beliefs and practices he believes to be ...
    2 weeks ago
  • War of the worms
    I'm going to make a Reckless Prediction™ that the Tories have 'topped out' in the 'poll of polls' / Britain Elects multipoll tracker at about 38%, and in the next week we will start to see Labour creep up on them.In fact, we might just be seeing the start of ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Marvelly shows us how to be a feminist without feminism
    by The Council of Disobedient Women Lizzie Marvelly: “I may have missed this… has @afterellen gone all terf-y? Or am I reading something incorrectly? “ https://twitter.com/LizzieMarvelly/status/1191840059105742849 After Ellen is a lesbian website that is unashamedly pro-lesbian, as you’d expect. So why is Ms Marvelly so bothered about lesbians having their ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago

  • New measures for wood processing boost
    Hon Shane Jones, Minister of Forestry The Government will further strengthen New Zealand’s wood processing sector as part of our focus on ‘value over volume’ in our forestry industry, Forestry Minister Shane Jones says. Minister Jones will today meet with forestry representatives in Northland to signal new measures to help the ...
    3 hours ago
  • New high tech traps will reduce the need for 1080 poison
    New Zealand First are celebrating the announcement of an investment of $3.5 million into five new trapping devices. These are a range of bait and trap devices, all designed to be left unattended for long periods of time. NZ First conservation spokesperson Jenny Marcroft says that this latest development will ...
    1 day ago
  • Cowboy clampers will be stymied
    Clayton Mitchell, Spokesperson for Consumer Affairs The ‘wheel clamping’ Bill that will cap clamper fees to $100 passed its third reading in Parliament today. New Zealand First welcomes The Land Transport (Wheel Clamping) Amendment Bill to combat predatory wheel clamping behaviour in what is currently a largely unregulated business. Cowboy clampers are: gouging ...
    2 days ago
  • Mental Health Commission back on track
    Jenny Marcroft, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First welcomes the passage of the Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill through its first reading in Parliament. “Today’s progress takes serious action on the mental health and addiction crisis the country is facing,” says New Zealand First Health Spokesperson Jenny Marcroft. “The re-establishment ...
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand’s key assets are not for sale: national interest test delivered
    Mark Patterson, Spokesperson for Primary Industries Today the Government announced the delivery of the promise to protect New Zealand interests by applying a new National Interest Test to the sales of our most sensitive and high risk assets to overseas buyers. This further strengthening of the Overseas Investment Act will ...
    3 days ago
  • National interest test added to protect New Zealanders’ interests
    The Coalition Government is delivering on its promise to protect New Zealanders’ interests by applying a new national interest test to the sales of our most sensitive and high-risk assets to overseas buyers. Under current Overseas Investment Act (OIA) rules, assets such as ports and airports, telecommunications infrastructure, electricity and ...
    3 days ago
  • Electoral law breach allegations
    Rt Winston Peters, Leader of New Zealand First Allegations raised this morning by Stuff Limited / Fairfax concern a party matter but I am confident that New Zealand First has operated within electoral laws, now and for the last 27 years. Declarable donations were declared to the Electoral Commission. Our ...
    3 days ago
  • Wayne Brown hits back at critics: Ports of Auckland has to move
    The chairman of the Upper North Island Supply Chain Strategy (UNISCS) working group, Wayne Brown, has hit back at critics of his group’s recommendations to relocate the Ports of Auckland cargo operations to Whangarei’s deepwater port of Northport. The working group's recommendation to close Auckland waterfront to all but cruise ...
    4 days ago
  • Week That Was: Supporting our schools
    We're setting our young people up for success, investing in education around the country.  ...
    4 days ago
  • Kiwis to have their say on End of Life Choice
    Jenny Marcroft MP, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First backs the public to decide on the End of Life Choice Bill via a referendum at the 2020 General Election. The Bill, with New Zealand First’s referendum provision incorporated, passed its final reading in Parliament this evening. New Zealand First Spokesperson for ...
    1 week ago
  • Addressing miscarriages of justice
    Darroch Ball, Spokesperson for Justice New Zealand First is proud that a key Coalition Agreement commitment which will provide for a more transparent and effective criminal justice system has been realised. Legislation to establish the Criminal Cases Review Commission, an independent body focused on identifying and responding to possible miscarriages of ...
    1 week ago
  • Week That Was: Historic action on climate change
    "Today we have made a choice that will leave a legacy... I hope that means that future generations will see that we, in New Zealand, were on the right side of history." - Jacinda Ardern, Third Reading of the Zero Carbon Bill ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Tax-free deployments for Kiwi troops
    Darroch Ball, New Zealand First List MP A Member’s bill has been proposed that would provide income tax exemptions for all New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel while on operational deployment overseas. The Income Tax (Exemption for Salary or Wages of NZDF Members on Active Deployment) Amendment Bill proposed by New Zealand First ...
    2 weeks ago
  • A balanced Zero Carbon Bill passed
    Rt Hon Winston Peters, New Zealand First Leader New Zealand First is proud to have brought common sense to the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Bill, which passed its final reading in Parliament today. Party Leader Rt Hon Winston Peters says months of hard work went into negotiating a balanced ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Paramedics’ status to be recognised
    Jenny Marcroft MP, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First has listened to calls to recognise paramedics as registered health professionals under the Health Practitioners’ Competence Assurance Act (the Act). Today, the Coalition Government announced plans for paramedics to be registered as health practitioners under the Act, and the establishment of a ...
    2 weeks ago

  • PGF approves wind turbines funding for Stewart Island
    Stewart Island/Rakiura has been granted $3.16 million from the Provincial Growth Fund to help build two wind turbines, putting the island on a path to sustainable electricity generation, Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Stewart Island is our third largest island, after the North and South Islands, and it is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • NZ economy in good shape amid global headwinds
    A major new report on the global economy shows New Zealand is in good shape amid increased global headwinds. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has just released its latest Economic Outlook. It shows the OECD group of economies is forecast to grow between 1.6% and 1.7% across ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • Milestone of 1800 new Police officers
    The Coalition commitment to add 1800 new Police officers to frontline policing has been achieved with the graduation of 59 constables from the Royal New Zealand Police College today. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters say today’s graduation means 1825 new Police have been deployed all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • PM appoints business leaders to APEC Business Advisory Council
    Ensuring APEC work gets input from diverse New Zealand business and trade interests is behind three new appointments to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC), Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says. Rachel Taulelei, Malcolm Johns and Toni Moyes have been appointed to represent New Zealand on the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • PM speech notes for Trans-Tasman Business Circle
    Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā tatou katoa. Thank you for having me to speak today. To start, I’d like to acknowledge Sharron Lloyd, the General Manager of the Trans–Tasman Business Circle, the partners for this event Westpac’s  David McLean, and Derek McCormack from  AUT, and, of course ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Otago Regional Council given deadline for freshwater management plan
    A four-month investigation by former Environment Court judge Professor Peter Skelton found that Otago’s freshwater planning system is not fit for purpose to manage the region’s rivers, lakes and aquifers and that the Council has inadequate rules for the taking of water and the discharge of nutrients.   “Existing planning provisions ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • LGNZ Rural and Provincial Sector Speech
      Introduction Thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This is the first opportunity I’ve had to speak to an LGNZ meeting since the local elections, and I’m delighted to see the fresh faces of newly elected mayors. To returning mayors here today, as well as chief ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand to attend G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Japan
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters departs New Zealand today to attend the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Nagoya at the invitation of this year’s G20 President, Japan. “This is the first time New Zealand will attend a G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and we are deeply honoured that it is at ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Ambassador to the European Union announced
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters today announced the appointment of diplomat Carl Reaich as New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the European Union. “The Ambassador to the EU is one of the most important and senior roles in New Zealand’s foreign service, advocating for New Zealand’s interests with the EU institutions,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New inventions boost Predator Free 2050 effort
        Innovation and technology are behind five new tools to give nature a helping hand by helping eliminate predators, funded through the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF), Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage and Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. “The new tools will be trialled in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • APEC 2021 Bill passes first reading
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has welcomed the first reading of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation 2021 (APEC 2021) Bill in Parliament today. The temporary bill supports New Zealand’s security preparations for hosting the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in 2021. “APEC is the leading economic and trade forum ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Making progress for our kids
    The Government is making progress on improving the wellbeing of the one million New Zealanders under the age of 18,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on World Children’s Day. The Government has today recommitted to the most widely ratified human rights treaty in history – the United Nation’s Convention on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Māori women in business contribute to our economy, whānau and communities
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter has released a new report celebrating the contribution of Māori women in business across Aotearoa New Zealand. “Māori women are leaders in our communities, they employ many people and support our economy and our communities,” Julie Anne Genter said. The report, Ngā wāhine kaipakihi: ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Two schools on the way for Omokoroa
    Four parcels of land have been bought in Omokoroa, in the Western Bay of Plenty District, for an education facility that will accommodate both a primary and secondary school on a campus-like facility, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. Two parcels were acquired from private land owners and two were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Families Package helps over 1 million New Zealanders in first year
    1 million New Zealanders warmed by the Winter Energy Payment 36,000 families bank the Best Start Payment in first year 6,000 more families received the Family Tax Credit, 220,600 in total   They receive an increase too – from an average of $117 to $157 a week for Inland Revenue clients, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Clamp down on wheel clamping passes third reading
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