web analytics

Here be dragons

Written By: - Date published: 10:02 pm, October 25th, 2008 - 20 comments
Categories: act, election 2008, greens, labour, maori party, national, polls, progressives, spin - Tags:


So, we can all make up dumb pictures and say ‘beware of many-headed monsters’. Let’s, instead, ask if National’s attack makes sense.

First, any new government is going to need support from a number of parties. A Labour-led government is likely to be dependent on Labour, the Progressives, Greens, and the Maori Party (four parties). A National-led government is likely to be dependent on National, ACT, United Future, and (if they can get it) the Maori Party. Um, that’s four parties too. 

Secondly, any Labour-led government is likely to be simpler than the current government. Currently, we have a coalition of two parties, supported by two more parties on confidence and supply, with an abstention agreement with a fifth party, and voluntary abstention from a sixth. Those agreements are only so complicated New Zealand First and United Future wanted to maintain separation from the Government and refused to work directly with the Greens. 

Thirdly, the Labour, Green, Progressive, and Maori parties share a common underlying ideology and a common history. They simply represent different streams of left-wing politics, which have been able to successfully divide into separate, sustainable political parties under MMP. On the big issues, these parties agree and where they differ it is usually by matters of degree, not direction.

Contrast that with a National/ACT/UF/Maori Party arrangement. Free-market zealots in ACT, United Future’s christian conservatives, the Maori Party’s strong socialist and environmental roots, the Nat’s heady blend of born-to-rule conservatives and businessmen doing their time protecting their class interests. It would be a disaster and totally unworkable. The Maori Party votes less than one-third of the time with National and ACT; there is no legislative program such a government could successfully pass. Instead, there would be inertia and eventual collapse. Not what we need in a government right now.

It’s pretty obvious why the Right is trying to run this line, along with its twin ‘most popular party gets to govern, not most popular coaliltion’. They are terrified of how badly things are now going. Among the public polls, half are showing a LPG+M government would be the most likely outcome and the Right’s support is trending down. The internal polls are stronger for the Left. The disaster last week has yet to flow through into the polls and everyone suspects that the polls undercount support for the Left. 

All that aside, the really interesting thing is that they’ve included the Maori Party in this five-headed monster, effectively conceding that a National-led government won’t get the Maori Party’s support. They’ve replaced the Tory/Maori Party fairy tale with stories to scare the kids. Problem is, they’re still stuck in fantasy-land.

20 comments on “Here be dragons ”

  1. oob 1

    As an aside I hear the TVNZ poll shows the gap closing
    should be released tomorrow

  2. Kinoy001 2

    Great news about the gap. Is that between national and labour or the left and right?

    LPG+M will win this election and John key will be gone by lunch time…

  3. Pascal's bookie 3

    It’s pretty obvious why the Right is trying to run this line, along with its twin ‘most popular party gets to govern, not most popular coaliltion’. They are terrified of how badly things are now going.

    It’s interesting too that we are starting to see comments, (not from pollies), that there will be a backlash if the right get ‘robbed’ again (by not getting enough votes to form a government under the NZ system).

    Two thoughts:
    1) Whenever the right gets beaten, it’s never the fault of their policies (which are what all right thinking people rightly believe ’cause it’s right), but the fault of nefarious others lying and cheatin’ and making the long march through the institutions and what have you. ooh when the people realise they will rise up and throw out the leftist usurpers what they just voted for. There’ll be a powerful backlash, outside of talkback this time, no really there will. You’d best be careful, no one would like to see it, it’ll be so nasty. err. Honestly it will. If you thought we got het up about the EFA just you wait. We’ll umm. do things and stuff.

    2) har har

  4. oob. I’ve heard the same. Also heard that a Herald-Digipoll did disappear.

    The great thing about polling continuously but not offering regular polls is you can take the time period that suits your desired result, or you can just not run a poll.

  5. I posted on this on Just Left earlier (“National’s starting to panic.“). There is no question that the moral mandate is for a government not for an individual party.

    There’s also no question that the current government arrangement is more complicated than what any centre-left govt will look like post-election. Nice demolition of that argument, Steve.

  6. dave 6

    Hey, If we get a dragon coalition, perhaps we can name the beehive the dungeon!

    Jokes aside, I doubt if there will be many christian conservatives in United Future after the election. And National does not need all the members of the Maori Party on side whereas Labour does, on current polling.You say any Labour-led government is likely to be simpler than the current government

    So is any National led govt.Pity you omitted that, Steve.

    Anyway, Jordan’s either ignorant or spinning badly , and I posted on this on Big News to clarify things.

  7. Robin Grieve 7

    Good picture but you cocked it up. Act only have one leader Rodney Hide. So your dragon should have;
    John Key, Rodney Hide and Peter Dunne.

    It is the Greens and the Maoris that have co leaders so that monster would have a lot of heads;
    Hell Clark, Jeanette Fitzsimons, Russell Norman, Pita Sharples, Terrible Tiriana, Jim Anderton, Winston Peters

  8. Tim Ellis 8

    oob. I’ve heard the same. Also heard that a Herald-Digipoll did disappear.

    Except there’s no evidence that the poll did disappear. The day before the last Herald poll came out, Dancer speculated that the Herald was sitting on it, allegedly because it showed Winston above 5%. A nice conspiracy theory, except the next day, the Herald poll was published, a month after the previous poll (so it was regular, despite SP’s claim), and it showed yet again that National could govern alone, and showed yet again that Winston would not reach 5%.

    So the rumour that the poll had been suppressed was wrong. The alleged reason for the suppression turned out to be wrong as well. It doesn’t seem to have stopped SP from repeating it after the fact, though.

  9. randal 9

    heck I woke up this morning and thought jenny shipley was back!

  10. Lampie 10

    lol randel

  11. higherstandard 11

    Randal

    I suggest you don’t mention that to your wife.

    Nice to see that Clinton’s post is the usual fatuous load of bigoted pap.

    The only real issue is those parties that hold the balance of power and what they will want for it. Jim Anderton, Peter Dunne and Act are really pretty much irrelevant none will get near 5% and 2 of the three will go where they usually do regardless with Dunne going wherever to make up the numbers.

    The Greens if Labour can cobble something together and the Maori party and the only real important players as they will both deliver a number of MPs to any coalition – so it’s really only what these two parties require to deliver their support that matters.

  12. randal 12

    HS stop going on about the balance of power.
    Under MMP it is forming a coalition
    repeating the mediaspeake is not teling the truth
    thats what the campaign is for
    so people can form their own opinion
    have you got that yet?

  13. Sarah 13

    I’m starting to actually struggle to take Clinton seriously. You can smell the red on his breath a mile away.

    [lprent: Read No – you must…. I also notice that Tumeke has us at number 2 these days. Guess we must be doing something that the readers and commentators like. Of course that isn’t hard, getting rid of the mindless and un-amusing trolls is probably sufficient. But personally I blame it all on the quality of the posts and the discussion. I’m not sure that you help much.

    Incidentally, also read the policy about attacking the site or posters. You’re heading towards a ban]

  14. higherstandard 14

    Randal

    I’m starting to worry for your sanity – you seem to be variously fixated upon Winston and now this morning you woke up this morning and thought Jenni Shipley was back – now that probably does suggest you might require a script for an SDA.

  15. randal 15

    think whatever you like hs just dont forget to make labour your party vote on nov 8

  16. Matthew Pilott 16

    the Herald poll was published, a month after the previous poll

    You know what’s interesting about that, Tim? The dates for the poll were 15-22 October. Given the regularity of their polling at present, you’d have to wonder what they came up with in the three weeks after previous polling, before that one started.

    I’m starting to actually struggle to take Clinton seriously. You can smell the red on his breath a mile away.

    Kind of like the way I can smell the vapid on yours? Sarah, when you’re attacking someone, but consistently fail to make a single valid point against their’s, it makes you look much, much worse.

    Robin, in reality it should have the whole Nat front bench. If National win, I wonder what Centrebet would be paying for Key to last a term. $5.50 easy.

  17. bill brown 17

    So much for the right’s righteous talk about the unfairness of overhangs.

    Not only do we have the Mt Eden Hide overhang, we now have the Ohariu Peter “I’m for you John” Dunne overhang.

    I hope the14,000 Labour party voters from 2005 are well aware that a candidate vote for Dunne is a vote for the Nats.

  18. burt 18

    Another original idea from the left.

  19. Felix 19

    That’s ok burt, no-one expects you to actually read the post. Not even the first sentence as it turns out.

    Why don’t you go back and read it retrospectively?

  20. Tim Ellis 20

    Matthew said:

    You know what’s interesting about that, Tim? The dates for the poll were 15-22 October. Given the regularity of their polling at present, you’d have to wonder what they came up with in the three weeks after previous polling, before that one started

    I don’t know what you mean, Matt. The Herald has been polling monthly until now. When they conduct a monthly Digipoll, it is probably attached to Digipoll’s normal commercial polling cycle. That cycle would be conducted over a week for Digipoll, within the normal polling cycle.

    I suspect that Digipoll are now being commissioned by the Herald to conduct polls weekly between now and the election–probably two more polls. Those polls are likely to be political-only, over shorter time periods, in order to retain a reasonable sample size. I suspect that is the same for TNS, Neilsen and Colmar Brunton: we’ll probably see a couple of polls released from each between now and the election.

    What I don’t follow is the argument that there must have been another Digipoll, which was suppressed. Nothing was out of the ordinary about the Herald’s timing. It was the same as last election.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • New Public Housing Plan announced
    The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates President Joe Biden on his inauguration
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Government acknowledges 175th anniversary of Battle of Ruapekapeka
    The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better care for babies with tongue-tie
    Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison over
    The prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison is over, with all remaining prisoners now safely and securely detained, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. The majority of those involved in the event are members of the Mongols and Comancheros. Five of the men are deportees from Australia, with three subject to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Pre-departure COVID-19 test for travellers from the UK and the US from 15 January
    Travellers from the United Kingdom or the United States bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 before departing, and work is underway to extend the requirement to other long haul flights to New Zealand, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “The new PCR test requirement, foreshadowed last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago