Here Be the Braindead: NZCSC Tries Science by Court, Instead of Actually Doing Science

Written By: - Date published: 11:04 am, August 17th, 2010 - 11 comments
Categories: climate change - Tags:

As r0b already mentioned yesterday, NIWA is now being sued by the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (NZCSC), on the basis of their stunning research paper “Are We Feeling Warmer Yet? Stunning as in “how could anyone possibly be this dumb?”. For what they did was take the raw temperature data from various NIWA sites and string it together to give us this:

Now what the NZCSC would have us believe is that this represents the real change in NZ temperatures, and that site effects that bias the way the temperature is recorded over the years are non existent. Strangely, these same site effects where all the rage in the US-climate denialosphere, or were until Anthony Watt’s opus magnum Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable? was beautifully cluebatted by NOAA in their response “Talking Points related to concerns about whether the U.S. temperature record is reliable“. Basically, it turns out that you can use adjustments to mitigate biases in the temperature record caused by site effects, or changes in a stations history, such as being moved up a hill. As such to allow climate researchers to lump together geographically separate temperature records to give an average trend for a region, or for a whole nation.

I guess the NZCSC ironically missed the memo about the site effects that made the US temperature records “unreliable”.

Although thankfully I don’t need to go in the finer details, because some fellow NZ science bloggers have done that for me, with the most devastating being David Winter’s post on his blog The Atavism, Peer Review for the Climate “Science” Coalition. Which in brief, when you use not particularly fancy statistical tools to compare the NZCSC claims about 0.7°C drop per decade in Wellington’s temperature since 1860 – 2000 with the raw station data, not even the dreaded Excel gives a line of best fit  of -0.7°C per decade. The NZSCS trend of -0.7°C per decade also only explains 3% of variant, aka it’s entirely statistically non-significant*, where as when we let the standard linear regression analysis tools loose, the two lines of best fit David finds explains 25 and 28% of variance. Which given the noisiness of the data set, is actually quite impressive, and off the top of my head, likely is statistically significant**. Though really, the data needs to be smoothed, before trying to find a line of best fit.

*cough*

Further more, both Ken of Open Parachute and Gareth over at Hot-Topic also covered NZSCS’s “research”, noting some rather impressive bits of stupidity and lying on NZCSC’s part. What it boils down to is the NZCSC ignoring site effects and thus assuming that the stations environments are completely the same, irrespective of altitude and site history factors that would render them dissimilar. Nor was there any scientific review of at all of any of the claims the NZSCS made. Which if you’re not well acquainted with standard denialist tactics, may come across as rather strange given the seeming importance of the claims leveled by the NZSCS at NIWA and Jim Salinger. But I suppose I should get on the recent news, and point out the stupid there within.

Stupidity Redux:
From stuff.co.nz:

He said the New Zealand Meteorological Service had shown no warming during the past century but Niwa had adjusted its records to show a warming trend of 1degC. The warming figure was high and almost 50 percent above the global average, said Mr Leyland.

The coalition said the 1degC warming during the 20th century was based on adjustments taken by Niwa from a 1981 student thesis by then student Jim Salinger, a Niwa employee who was later sacked after talking to the media without permission.

The Salinger thesis was subjective and untested and meteorologists more senior to Dr Salinger did not consider the temperature data should be adjusted, it said.

The coalition would ask the court to find Niwa’s New Zealand Temperature Record invalid.

Wait, could someone please remind me what meteorologists do again? Oh that’s right, one of the many things they don’t do is climatology, meaning that of course they’re going to think adjusting the temperature data for site effects is pointless. Because long term temperature changes only matter if you’re looking at general changes in weather patterns decades down the track, rather than say what the weather’s doing this week, or this month. i.e. meteorologists are not experts on climate change, meaning asking them for their opinion on climate change, particularly methodology is pointless, for other than rhetorical reasons.

Like trying to convince the general public that NIWA are lying.

Hmmmn, where have I seen that before? Oh that’s right, it’s a standard denialist tactic that I’ve seen over and over again with creationists using medical doctors and chemistry boffins etc as “experts” to refute evolution.

It also seems the NZSCS and their fell sockpuppet spawn the New Zealand Climate Science Education Trust (NZCSET) have no understanding of The Thesis, in that generally with science thesis’s when you hand it in, a collection of your superiors proceeds to torture you and rip apart your claims, in a quaint ceremony known as “defending your thesis”. And this is after your supervisor has scribbled mysterious, chthonic, Lovecraftian glyphs in red ink on the drafts and demanded rewrites of various bits, and followed by external reviewers digging into it. Which if only if your thesis (and you) survive are you granted your degree. And so is generally a sign that the claims, conclusions and methods within a given thesis are solid, and can be applied again and that the person who wrote it is now an expert in the narrow field their thesis covers. Thus, a thesis is very unlikely to be “subjective”, let alone “untested”, especially considering the good quality of our four main universities.

Gibbs and NZCSC, NZCSET and CSC.

Frank brought this up earlier in the comments, and yes, Alan Gibbs does have links to the NZSCS, though they’re not exactly direct and more by association from what is in the public eye. On the other hand from that link we can see that the NZCSC has strong ties to the International Climate Science Coalition, which Gibbs is directly involved in. And out of the likely suspects to be involved in funding the NZCSET’s legal actions, Gibbs is the clear and only front runner. But as per usual, get donation information out of these so called non-profit organisations is rather difficult, and until someone does us a favour and leaks the NZCSC’s and NZCSET’s funding sources, we’re stuck with strong inferences.

____________________________________________
*Statistical significance in a nutshell: whether or not the test-stat your standardisation of the data produces is large enough given the sample size and alpha value that your results are not due to chance.
**Haven’t re-installed and learnt how to use R+ yet, so can’t check. So don’t quote me on it.

11 comments on “Here Be the Braindead: NZCSC Tries Science by Court, Instead of Actually Doing Science ”

  1. ghostwhowalksnz 1

    Reminds me of the Scopes trial.

    • NickS 1.1

      Whoops…

      That’s one thing I forgot to cover. There’s also been other court cases in the US to do with creationism and intelligent design in the last 50 years, but that’s mostly been due to the ACLU and Federal/State cases to remove creationist classes from high schools.

      The closest one to home actually was across the ditch in Australia, I think in Perth, in which one of the HIV denialist groups tried to use a court case about an HIV positive man having unprotected sex to try and throw out present science on HIV. Which failed spectacularly of course.

  2. roger nome 2

    Maybe the title of this post should be “stupidity tries …. and tries …. and tries…”

    This song could be their lament…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAfPfcwgUM8

  3. Big industry really is desperate to keep polluting without constraint.

  4. r0b 4

    Anyone want to get together a case to sue the Climate Science Coalition for false advertising, re the abuse of the word “Science” in their name? I think a judge should rule it invalid, don’t you?

    • NickS 4.1

      Well, if you can find an eccentric business person who has the money to spare for what would a lengthy and amusing court case, go for it.

      But it’s far more elegant personally to leave that issue alone and score sarcasm/irony points on it each time they appear 😛

  5. NickS 5

    *ahem*

    Also, I should the phrase “especially considering the good quality of our four main universities.” was wrong of me. Pretty much they all are, in spite of some of the idiots that have come out of them. Apologies to any of those feeling somewhat miffed.

  6. Thanks for the link, and for being on the side of the angels here 😉

    What I should have pointed out in that article was the C”S”C constructed their cooling trend in Wellington by stitching together two series which each had a warming trend! Can you imagine what the climate change in-activists would say if they found something like that in the real data!

    • NickS 6.1

      Heh, not a problem 😛

      I’m sort of the resident evil-science-student person who merrily hunts down stuff through google scholar to whack the unwary with. Which reminds me, I really need to check out what alt-med crap ACC pays for and get the meta-studies the likes of Orac have posts on…

      Something I forgot to bring up here when the ACC cuts were all a rage.

      And as I said, you had pretty much the best take down, that also include enough pictures for people to get drawn in and see just how pathetic the NZCSC claims were.

      What I should have pointed out in that article was the C’S’C constructed their cooling trend in Wellington by stitching together two series which each had a warming trend!
      Personally, it was pretty clear from what you wrote that was the case, but, heh, I can understand philosophers of science even with untreated depression + insomnia, so I might not be the best judge on that…

      Can you imagine what the climate change in-activists would say if they found something like that in the real data!

      Heh, first they actually need to be able to do 2nd year statistics 😛

      And I doubt the likes of Treadgold couldn’t even manage first year stats.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • EV road user charges bill passes
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April.  “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • Bill targets illegal, unregulated fishing in international waters
    New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Reserve Bank appointments
    Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates.  Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Stronger protections for apartment owners
    Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Travel focused on traditional partners and Middle East
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend.    “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says.   Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Keep safe on our roads this Easter
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Cost of living support for over 1.4 million Kiwis
    About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Tenancy reviews for social housing restart
    Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary plan halted
    The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Cutting all that dam red tape
    Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track.  “Dam safety regulations ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Drought support extended to parts of North Island
    The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Passage of major tax bill welcomed
    The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Lifting economy through science, tertiary sectors
    Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government announces Budget priorities
    The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government to consider accommodation solution
    The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government approves extension to Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care
    Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says.                                         “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • $18m boost for Kiwis travelling to health treatment
    The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says.   “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM’s Prizes for Space to showcase sector’s talent
    The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Concerns conveyed to China over cyber activity
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government.     “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry
    Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function.  The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Brynderwyns open for Easter
    State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Infrastructure Funding & Financing Conference
    Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Parliamentary network breached by the PRC
    New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ to provide support for Solomon Islands election
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ-EU FTA gains Royal Assent for 1 May entry to force
    The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union.    “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • COVID-19 inquiry attracts 11,000 submissions
    Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says.  “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Families to receive up to $75 a week help with ECE fees
    Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Unlocking a sustainable, low-emissions future
    A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Chief of Army thanked for his service
    Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders
    25 March 2024 Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders Small Business, Manufacturing, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly will travel to Australia for a series of bi-lateral meetings and manufacturing visits. During the visit, Minister Bayly will meet with his Australian counterparts, Senator Tim Ayres, Ed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government commits nearly $3 million for period products in schools
    Government commits almost $3 million for period products in schools The Coalition Government has committed $2.9 million to ensure intermediate and secondary schools continue providing period products to those who need them, Minister of Education Erica Stanford announced today. “This is an issue of dignity and ensuring young women don’t ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech – Making it easier to build.
    Good morning, it’s great to be here.   First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning.  I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Pacific youth to shine from boost to Polyfest
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti has announced the Government’s commitment to the Auckland Secondary Schools Māori and Pacific Islands Cultural Festival, more commonly known as Polyfest. “The Ministry for Pacific Peoples is a longtime supporter of Polyfest and, as it celebrates 49 years in 2024, I’m proud to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • 2024 Ngarimu VC and 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial Scholarships announced
    ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Speech to Breast Cancer Foundation – Insights Conference
    Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Kiwi research soars to International Space Station
    New Zealand has notched up a first with the launch of University of Canterbury research to the International Space Station, Science, Innovation and Technology and Space Minister Judith Collins says. The hardware, developed by Dr Sarah Kessans, is designed to operate autonomously in orbit, allowing scientists on Earth to study ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Planning Institute
    Introduction Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today and I’m sorry I can’t be there in person. Yesterday I started in Wellington for Breakfast TV, spoke to a property conference in Auckland, and finished the day speaking to local government in Christchurch, so it would have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Support for Northland emergency response centre
    The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed.  “Northland has faced a number ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Celebrating 20 years of Whakaata Māori
    New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Some commercial fishery catch limits increased
    Commercial catch limits for some fisheries have been increased following a review showing stocks are healthy and abundant, Ocean and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The changes, along with some other catch limit changes and management settings, begin coming into effect from 1 April 2024. "Regular biannual reviews of fish ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-03-28T17:55:36+00:00