Statistics New Zealand recently tweeted this graph. It laid out for all to see the cause of the housing crisis. There was a calamitous lack of new homes being built from 2009 to 2013 but clearly figures have now improved dramatically. For the last year the numbers of new construction consents were the highest since 1974, during the term of the third Labour Government.
This was the time of the John Key government. But rather than acknowledge what was happening and debate the causes it chose to continuously say there was no crisis.
After Labour gained power the incoming briefings laid out the extent of the problem.
This was from Henry Cooke at Stuff shortly after the change in Government:
Official figures prepared for the new housing minister estimate a shortfall of 45,000 houses in Auckland, with supply of new homes well behind increased demand.
They also show serious shortfalls in Hamilton and Wellington leading to a nationwide shortage of 71,000, with new minister Phil Twyford saying his government have “inherited a disaster.”
The estimates, never publicly released, were included in a briefing for Twyford from his new ministry partially released to Stuff. It compares population increase with new houses actually built – not just consented.
In Auckland as of 1 June 2017 the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) put the shortfall at 44,738 homes, following a huge growth in demand through 2013 to 2015 which a more gradual increase in completed new homes did not keep pace with.
Labour’s Kiwibuild has not gone as smoothly as it could. The problem was announcing bold headline grabbing figures that suggested there would be an immediate improvement.
Across the road from me there are two apartment towers being constructed. They will contain 160 apartments, many of which will be social housing. The construction is being undertaken by reputable experienced developers. The resource consent process was conducted very efficiently and went through without problems. Completion is six months away. From start to finish it will be five years and the way I see it this is an optimal well processed development. The suggestion that a large number of apartments and houses would be built within the first term or even within a decade was always heroic.
But this is not the only policy that has been enacted. There was the supported living apartment announcement, 1,500 additional places for homeless in 2018, tenancy law reform, resourcing infrastructure needed for growth including the forthcoming infrastructure announcement, and 6,400 new public housing places to be completed by 2022. And removing the need for Housing Corp to pay the Government a dividend has freed up much needed resources. To name a few.
On the other hand the housing corporation wait list has ballooned. Expectations are higher. And Labour has stopped polices National implemented to reduce the lists such as tenancy reviews and excluding from the list those in houses in which traces of methamphetamine was found, even if there was no risk or no proof of who was responsible.
From Radio New Zealand:
The waiting list for public housing has hit a new high – reaching nearly 14,500 households.
The recently released figure – recorded at the end of November – has more than doubled from the roughly 6000 individuals or families on the list shortly after the 2017 election.
National is blaming Labour’s housing policies and says the government has meddled in the rental market instead of building houses.
But the minister responsible, Kris Faafoi, said the government had already delivered some 3300 public housing places, with another 2500 under construction.
They were due to be completed by June, he said.
The increase in demand was due in part to a culture change which meant people knew they would receive the help they need, he said.
Faafoi added that Budget 2019 had included $197 million to strengthen and expand the Housing First programme.
That funding would be able to support up to 2700 homeless whānau across New Zealand, he said.
The construction trend has now corrected and is heading in the right direction. The Government is putting in the resources to make sure that this continues. And housing prices have stabilised, particularly in Auckland and have been declining albeit modestly. I don’t think that a greater decline is politically sustainable. There are too many young home buyers who would be wiped out by a strong correction.
So things are improving. The political imperative for the Government is that they improve quickly enough by the time of the next election so that they will be trusted for a second term. Which is when the real change should occur.
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