Prime Minister Hipkins has put Labour on course to win a third term. Here’s how.
Mr Hipkins has been in the job just four months and has put Labour back on track.
Unemployment headline rate is at 3.4%, continuing Labour’s run as keeping everyone going and productive as the nation faces one crisis after another.
The Prime Minister has removed tax from the election cycle by simply ruling any change out.
The Government will not introduce any major tax changes like a wealth tax or CGT in this budget.”
There will also be no specific cycle levy for either Gabrielle or the Auckland floods. The rebuild of the East Coast of the North Island will be funded through a combination of annual and capital allowances from previous Budgets, savings and reprioritisations, and some debt. This is a further $9-$14 billion invested into our society and economy.
And that is on top of the $9 billion on average this Government is now spending on infrastructure already. That’s about 40% up on National.
There is of course very little in Hipkins’ recent Budget speech that could not have been said by Bill English when it comes to export strength, trade deals, productivity, and rebuilding after a major disaster.
Except for the following.
Prime Minister Hipkins announced that Labour has built nearly 12,000 additional public homes and 4,000 transitional homes. He’s just announced a further 1,000 to be built for Christchurch.
Last month Hipkins finally got the Three Waters rollout under political control. If you want to see a single politician bring an entire debate to a conclusion, have a re-watch of Minister McAnulty in action one more time.
We now have a free trade deal agreement with the United Kingdom, which is something to crow about since the UK left the EU. This together with the FTA with the EU is better than National achieved, so he can’t be outflanked there.
We now have over 380,000 Kiwis enabled to have a path to citizenship in Australia, which is feat neither Bolger, Clark or Key managed to achieve. New Zealand will of course be the primary beneficiary of this as remittances are send back here from those awesome Australian salaries.
On the unemployment rate, we now have the lowest Maori unemployment rate of all time. Hipkins’ concentration of investment into the East Coast, into forestry co-investment, and into retaining co-governance, is a very strong proposition to the voters in the 7 Maori seats who supported Labour so strongly last time.
I have a suspicion that Hipkins has deeply downplayed the Budget so that Robertson can roll out the election-year chequebook. No one is talking tax cuts, anywhere. Labour will get a 1 point bump out of Budget alone.
At every point Hipkins has cancelled any tactical political advantage National could envisage, as well as showing the big economic and social delivery items that people can vote on. As well as recovering the North Island from disaster.
The key weakness Labour has right now is inflation, which Hipkins has front-footed at every point. Who knows whether that will be the fatal flaw in his election chances.
In the meantime, Hipkins has burnt off all the weak policies, scaled down the expectation, demolished most of National’s potential attack lines, and prepared the budget for something pretty special.
This is how Labour wins a third term.
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