Even after just four months it is time count what Russia has lost and will continue to lose.
Yes Russia has effectively captured the east and southern-east of the Ukraine.
Yes Russia has stopped Ukraine sea trade through the Black Sea.
But to the losses.
Russian troops lost the battle for Kiev within the first month. They then lost the entire north.
Russia has lost, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, over 28,000 Russian soldiers and several dozen top military staff. As well as countless armoured vehicles and aircraft. That is on the face of it about 33% of its ground armed forces.
Russia has lost recognition as a competent military power. Since 2013 the US$3.2 billion that Putin’s friend Yevgeny Prigozin was awarded, has provided Russian troops with such meager food supplies that they loot grocery stores. Their convoys have been beset by fuel shortages. Their logistics have drastically slowed their effort. Their tanks are not the once-feared force of the Soviet Bloc.
Russia, its businesses and people, have lost significant access to banking. The G-7 froze the Russian Central Bank’s international currency reserves and removed many Russian banks from SWIFT, the international messaging system for interbank transactions. In a single day Putin wiped out most of the economic gains Russia had made since 1991.
Russia has lost much of its medium-term economic future. Its economy will contract by around 9% in a single year and there is no forecast of major recovery. In August 1998 President Boris Yeltsin had dismissed his entire government for less. Whereas Putin is going to take his tight circle down with him all the way.
Russia has now ceased to publish economic data on banks, oil and debt. This hides the true effect that the economic sanctions are having.
Russia has lost influence in Europe and London. European nations are signing up for their gas elsewhere in Qatar and beyond. Finland and Norway have requested admission to NATO. Most European businesses have withdrawn from Russia and most will not return. Most European oil refineries don’t take Russian oil, though some in Italy and Germany still do.
Russia has lost many key customers, and further narrowed its economy into petroleum and gas exports. Even with over five decades of proven oil reserves left, full Russian decline will occur as reserves decline in the years ahead.
Russia has lost the remainder of Ukraine and its people as a potential ally against Europe and the United States. That is a very different place to 2013.
Russia has lost over 200,000 of its people since the war began. Future flows of emigres are likely to exceed the millions currently streaming out of Ukraine.
What will be lost next? Even if Russian news continues to be censored, the truth will come out. In 10 years of their Afghanistan war 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed and that failure contributed to the collapse of communist rule. Nearly double that have been killed in the Ukraine to date.
Russia will continue to lose while Putin remains in power. There is no current signal that there is an emerging leadership alternative to Putin. The Presidential Protection Service will shield him well. Russia’s Security Council rarely meets with Putin to guide him on another path. The next Presidential election is March next year.
Russia will face inflation as high as 23% this year, even with its Central Bank going into crisis mode over key rates to stabilise loan rates.
Russian disposable income is dropping extremely fast, even as the Rouble has stabilised.
Russia has lost and is losing far more than it is gaining in this Ukraine invasion.
What Russia is now likely to lose in future years is far worse.
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