Maybe rumours that National’s internal polling has that party’s support starting with a “3” are correct. Because David Farrar, National’s pollster has published this post that praises Jacinda Ardern and warns National supporters not to take her too lightly.
He starts off by saying this:
Many Labour MPs and activists spent the best part of a decade under-estimating John Key. They thought his popularity was artificial, and that as a Prime Minister who had never been a Minister he wasn’t up to the job, and that he was basically a rich prick charlatan that the public would see through at some stage.
Their under-estimation of his very real political abilities, led to them making bad strategic decisions.
There is some truth to this. Yes many of us thought that Key was a charlatan. He was light on the big policy stuff. His Government ambled through its reign and gradually, with a cut here and a snip there, debased the public service and the body politic. The one big policy he implemented, power company share sales, was performed efficiently to the long term harm of our society. But otherwise he spent his leadership reign making mostly token policy tweaks designed to make him and the party look better.
And he remained frustratingly popular. Yes his popularity declined but winning three elections is not to be sneezed at.
Farrar’s generous comments about Jacinda Ardern come from his observation of her performance at an Internet NZ meeting involving a dialogue on the Christchurch Call to Action to Eliminate Terrorist and Violent Extremist Content Online proposal.
He was surprised that Ardern was due to attend the meeting and thought it was for a photo op. He then says this:
As the meeting resumed after the tea break, Jacinda walked in and sat down in the circle of chairs with us. I looked around the room for her minders (as I know a few of them), and there were none there. This is pretty rare. Normally a press secretary will always be with the PM, making sure they record what is said, and also an advisor to field technical questions.
As the discussion from the first session was summarised, the PM grabbed a piece of paper and started taking notes. Not a staff member, but the PM. Then the facilitator handed the meeting over to the PM. She actually chaired or facilitated the next session herself after a brief outline of what they are trying to do. As each person made a contribution, she responded with comments or followups and kept making notes.
It dawned on me that rather than this being the PM telling us what she is doing, she was genuinely engaging with those in the room for their ideas about various issues and complexities. She was very much over the detail of what is a very complex landscape which is an intersection of Internet architecture, free speech issues, social media companies, behavioural incentives and issues of market dominance.
I’ve observed various Prime Ministers for over thirty years. The Prime Minister in that meeting was highly impressive – one of the best performances I have seen. I don’t mean just on empathy (always a strength) but on policy, on strategy, on tactics. She is obviously highly involved in the Christchurch Call, not just fronting it. She is driving it.
The combination of her mastery of detail, her actively seeking opinions and taking her own notes, her lack of staff in the room, and also the total lack of barriers between the PM and participants (all sitting around in a circle) made everyone in that room feel they were genuinely being useful, and this wasn’t just tick the box consultation. Her performance reminded me in fact of John Key at various events, as Key had a way of talking with an audience, rather than to an audience, that was first class.
The comments are … interesting. But Farrar’s analysis is astute.
What does National do? Wait for three terms? Attack others? It seems that a tactic of targeting Ministers they believe are under threat and attacking New Zealand First will be its primary role for the foreseeable future.
But in the meantime Farrar is right. National is going to get nowhere attacking Jacinda. How it tempers its natural born to rule tendencies over the next couple of years will be interesting to watch.
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