- Date published:
12:35 pm, August 28th, 2014 - 17 comments
Categories: accountability, election 2014, john key, national, polls - Tags: #dirtypolitics, dirty politics, horizon poll, polls
Our PM is fond of telling us all what we think. In the wake of Dirty Politics he is working it overtime, telling us all that we believe his spin. Interesting then to get some actual data on what (extrapolating from a sample) most New Zealanders really do think. Many thanks to the Horizon polling people for putting this up on line.
Political Conduct Survey
3. Executive Summary
Large numbers of New Zealanders are aware of and talking about the issues raised as a result of the publication of Nicky Hager’s book, Dirty Politics.
By large majorities, they find dirty politics unacceptable and would prefer them not to be practised.
- They are unacceptable to 59.9% of adults and acceptable to 25.8% as a part of overall political behaviour.
- 81.9% of adults prefer that dirty politics were not practised in New Zealand.
… They tend to believe the Prime Minister knew in advance about attacks on political opponents planned by pro-National bloggers and that the bloggers did not act totally independently of the National-led government.
More than half of adult New Zealanders (53.1%) believe mainstream media (newspapers, radio and television) have failed to act impartially in relation to material provided to them by bloggers. While 40.9% are not sure whether the media’s coverage of all aspects of the allegations made in Mr Hager’s book has been adequate, there is a small tendency to believe that it has not been.
Respondents tend to support the use of hacked e-mails and social media information of blogger Cameron Slater in the public interest than oppose it based on the information allegedly being private and obtained illegally.
… Large numbers of New Zealanders are feeling angry, disappointed and disgusted as a result of the Prime Minister’s management of the issues raised in the book in the 12 days from its first publication.
The results indicate the Prime Minister, John Key, has made 135,700 people who voted National in 2011 feel angry, or disappointed or disgusted. This is 12.8% of those who voted National at the last election.
… While voting intention shifts from poll to poll, National’s level of retention this year of those who said they intended to cast their party vote for the National Party at the next election had been particularly strong in polls conducted by Horizon up to the July/August survey (before the Hager book’s release), at around 92%. In this survey, conducted after the release of the “Dirty Politics” book, National retains only 82% of those who said in July/August they would give their party vote to the National Party. Note that around 8% of those who said in the July/August poll they would vote for National are now undecided about which party they will give their party vote to.
… National appears to have at least 3% less support overall from the 18+ population following the book’s publication in comparison with its position prior to the publication. Analysis poll by poll since March 2014 indicates that the decline is probably greater, around 3.8% less support.
There we have it. Most New Zealanders don’t want dirty politics, believe that Key was involved, support the use of the hacked material on public interest grounds, and the issue is turning off National voters. The only encouraging thing for the Nats is that apparently (and inexplicably) most don’t think that Key should resign.
So there you go John, no need to keep telling us that most New Zealanders believe your spin, we don’t. Dame Anne Salmond speaks more for us than you do – your dirty politics is a blight on our political landscape and it needs to be expunged.
On the Methodology:
This reports results of a Horizon Research survey of 1,752 respondents conducted between August 18 and 25, 2014.
Respondents are members of the HorizonPoll online panel, recruited to match the New Zealand population aged 18+.
The survey is weighted by age, gender, region, personal income, educational qualification level, and party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand adult population. At a confidence level of 95%, the maximum margin of error is +/- 2.3%.