It’s not a good idea in general to comment on internal polling. It isn’t designed for public release, its too easy for others to dismiss, and it needs to be reflected in public polls to be reliable. So we at TS don’t usually write on the occasional rumours that we hear. (No – we don’t have any writers who are Labour staffers so we have to rely on rumours like everyone else.)
Still and all, current internal numbers were publicised yesterday on Whaleoil and The Daily Blog, so here we go then.
The word is that Labour’s internal (UMR) polling has them up 6 to 35 with National down 6 to 41. I’d be inclined to dismiss that if it wasn’t similar (same 6% move) to the most recent Roy Morgan just 10 days ago.
If these numbers are correct then a Labour/ Green win in 2017 is looking good. Take it all with a big grain of salt however, what we need to see is large and sustained shifts in the public polling.
I think we will see those changes over the coming year. The Nats are awash with scandals, the economy is no longer propped up by high dairy prices, and huge issues remain to be addressed. National have wasted their three terms and they don’t deserve another.
Update: Colin James’ Poll of Polls confirms National’s drop: