Is Tony’s tenure terminal?

Written By: - Date published: 2:41 pm, February 8th, 2015 - 47 comments
Categories: australian politics, International - Tags: ,

The Australian Liberal Party vote tomorrow on a spill motion that could see Tony Abbott deposed as Prime Minister. The reasons are clear to see, the shortest political honeymoon on record, adverse polling with support for Abbott down to 27% and the Queensland State election fiasco could see Abbott deposed.

The Queensland State election result was particularly devastating for morale with the local Labor Party going from 7 seats three years ago to 43 and potentially 44 seats in the 89 seat legislature and with the Liberals down from 78 seats to probably no more than 42 seats.  Even the odious Pauline Hanson may remove a further Liberal MP from power.  Part of the blame for the result has been placed on Abbott himself and the party were that worried it kept him away from campaigning in the state.

And there is nothing like the prospect of defeat to motivate a backbench MP.  A group of them had petitioned for a spill motion to be conducted on Tuesday.  Abbott has replied by bringing the vote forward to Monday, obviously hoping that this will improve his prospects.  His movement has been met with some fury, and provides further evidence that he will exercise control and refuse to accommodate the wishes of his MPs.  Support appears to be growing for former leader Malcolm Turnbull who would present a more sane alternative leader to Abbott.

Julia Gillard must be grinning from ear to ear.  This particular satirical piece from the SBS site in Australia deserves to be reprinted.

Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard is under observation at Royal Prince Philip hospital after overdosing on schadenfreude, the pleasure derived from witnessing someone else’s misfortune.

Gillard was found in her residence clutching an oversized bag of popcorn and watching the ABC’s 7:30 Report. An ambulance was called to the Gillard residence and she was taken to hospital where she remains in a stable non-life threatening condition. Hospital staff were quick to caution that it was not all good news however.

“Unfortunately we were unable to wipe the smile off her face,” said a hospital spokesperson. “We tried everything we could but it won’t budge. This is unusual for a simple case of excessive schadenfreude.

“Whoever is triggering this episode must really, really deserve it.”

Gillard was unavailable for comment at the time of printing as any attempt to answer our questions was greeted with uncontrollable laughter and the phrase “it’s on.”

A spokesperson for Gillard thanked the medical staff at the Royal Prince Philip hospital for their dedicated work and insisted this is no need for concern.

“We appreciate the outpouring of tributes we’ve received but there is no need to worry. The only thing around here that’s terminal is the Abbott Government.”

If you want to follow events the Guardian have a live feed of events here.

Update: Abbott has survived with the vote reported to be 61-39 against a spill.  I suspect the left will be pleased …

47 comments on “Is Tony’s tenure terminal?”

  1. Ad 1

    Far more fun if he stays.

    Among other things, Aussie Labor could get a clean sweep of the states.

    • swordfish 1.1

      Yep, that’s the conundrum. Tony’s very bad for Australia but very good for the ALP.

    • tc 1.2

      True, QLD gets the mention but his ham fisted threats on funding the east west link in Melbourne only if the liberals were voted back cost dearly.

      Victoria was a campaign they got him to stay in Canberra for knowing he was electoral poison.

      Nice one tony, those political skills are no match for the boof head speedo tony alter ego.

  2. mac1 2

    Ah, I love an extended metaphor, especially when deserved by our shady Australian right wing friends. Now for those types on this side of the Tasman.

  3. Xsplat 3

    Turnbull is a close political analog for Key.

    Far more credible, grown up and better looking than Abbott. Way more popular with the electorate despite the NBN debacle he’s presided over. And if successful tomorrow he will be seen by the electorate to have come to power far more cleanly than Gillard. Turnbull has kept his nose very, very clean. Teflon even. He could easily keep the ALP out of power for two or three more elections.

    Turnbull’s only real problem will the neanderthals in his own coalition.

    • mickysavage 3.1

      Yep. I was astounded when Turnbull was dumped by the Liberals. The Key comparison is potentially very important. Key has way more EQ than Abbott.

      • Murray Rawshark 3.1.1

        “Key has way more EQ than Abbott.”

        I’m not so sure about that. I suspect he’s just better coached. When he goes outside the limits of the Crosby Textor script, he’s just as hopeless.

        • ScottGN 3.1.1.1

          I agree entirely. And what’s more Key wouldn’t look nearly so flash if he was forced to face the Press Galleries in Canberra or Westminster rather than the supine, matey bunch we have in Wellington. That video of him and Audrey Young having a laugh last week pretty much says it all.

          • tc 3.1.1.1.1

            Wouldn’t have survived those tranzrail eyes against an OZ media pack and if he did limp out of that would’ve been crucified at the next package of fibs.

            MSM play a massive part in keeping them in power.

  4. b waghorn 4

    Unfortunately if they kick abbot to the curb we as a nation will have to conceded the great who’s smarter debate to the aussies as we are still stuck with key 6 long years in.

  5. Morrissey 5

    Yes, Julia Gillard’s dismantling of Abbott was long overdue, and he deserved it.

    But we need to be wary of treating Gillard as some sort of hero—feminist or otherwise. She was and is no friend of the oppressed or the dissident.

    She was unforgettably shown up four years ago by a real Australian hero….

    • tracey 5.1

      yes cos those unions she worked for contained no one in need of help or support.

      • Morrissey 5.1.1

        She was a union executive, sure. So is Greg O’Connor.

        • Te Reo Putake 5.1.1.1

          No, she wasn’t Moz.

          • Morrissey 5.1.1.1.1

            She was the head of the Australian Students Union, I thought.

            I like her, by the way, and recognize her great people skills and her intellectual ability. I’m just disappointed with her.

            Ditto with Helen Clark and Barack Obama.

            • Te Reo Putake 5.1.1.1.1.1

              Quite correct, but a student union is a different beast to a labour union. She was a lawyer specialising in industrial law and contracted to the Aust. Workers Union.

              Why are you disappointed with her? She answered the rapey one’s pompous question pretty well, I thought. She was very honest and open replying to it.

              • Morrissey

                Why are you disappointed with her?

                Because of her lack of character, so apparent when she casually told lies in that studio: 1.) Her sleazy equating of Assange with drug-traffickers and murderers; 2.) that preposterous claim that she admired Daniel Ellsberg, who blew the whistle on the people responsible for the destruction of Indo-China, but that she couldn’t see the point of publishing evidence of mass murder in Iraq thirty years later: “I simply don’t see the merit in it…I don’t see the moral purpose in it.”

                She answered the rapey one’s pompous question pretty well, I thought. She was very honest and open replying to it.

                Assange pinned her down as a traitor astutely, and the reaction of the crowd acknowledged that. She’s a smooth and polished dissembler, so she managed to mask her discomfort with a winsome little giggle—a strategy that no doubt moved her up the Labor Party hierarchy quickly.

                ———-

                Of course I have to comment on your sad, vicious, preposterous Maoist-style abuse, calling Assange “the rapey one”. You really are a man out of your element; you would have been perfect in some hamlet in rural China, shouting denunciations and foul imprecations at whatever target had been identified by the party. False rape accusations played big in Maoist China, just like in Soviet Russia. Perhaps Marty and Doc will swing by in their flying DeLorean and whisk you off to some place where you can join in with another merry lynch mob.

                Because you are a dedicated Labour Party man, it is inconceivable that you would deviate from party discipline and admit the unpalatable truth, but I know that you don’t actually believe the nonsense you feel duty-bound to regurgitate.

                • Te Reo Putake

                  The problem with your critique is that it’s based on a false premise. You claim Gillard was lying. However, you only quote the first few words of her answer, which makes you the real distorter of the truth in this matter.

                  Further, Gillard does not equate the accused rapist Assange with murderers and drug traffickers, except in the sense that all Australian citizens get consular help whenever they are arrested overseas, whatever the gravity of the alleged crime. However, I’m happy to go further than Gillard. I believe rape, drug trafficking and murder are similarly serious crimes. So my opinion is that Assange is currently in that select group at least until he grows a spine and successfully defends the allegations.

                • millsy

                  Not to mention she slashed benefit payments for poor single parents.

    • Murray Rawshark 5.2

      Gillard was made to look good by comparison with Abbott and Rudd. She was a competent manager, an industrious bureaucrat bereft of any sort of vision. She was about as right wing as FJK, and like him, she misrepresented her agenda. You can see in the video how she immediately moved to associate Assange with murderers and drug traffickers. She did not answer his question about giving information to the seppos in a satisfactory manner at all.

      • Morrissey 5.2.1

        She’s not much different from Helen Clark.

        Having said that, I’d still prefer either of them to what we have now in our two countries.

  6. fisiani 6

    On Ipredict the odds he will be rolled are just 28% which surprises me.

    • b waghorn 6.1

      What the odds key don’t make to 2016 as prime minister

      • fisiani 6.1.1

        8% which seems good to short on.

        • b waghorn 6.1.1.1

          Not sure what shorting means but might have to scratch up 20 notes on key to go

          • fisiani 6.1.1.1.1

            Shorting means you sell a share for (100-8) ie 92c and when he is still there in 2016 your 92c becomes 100c or an 8.69% return. Not bad, easy money.
            Scratching up 20 notes to say that he will go in 2015 will cost you $20 which would get you 250 shares and if you were correct you would have turned your $20 into $250.
            In reality you would simply lose your $20.

      • Anne 6.1.2

        I go with you on that one b waghorn. If he makes it to the next election I’ll eat my hat. 🙂

        • fisiani 6.1.2.1

          Metaphorically or literally. You must let us all know how it tasted.

          • Anne 6.1.2.1.1

            Literally of course. Colin Espinor was forced to eat his hat some years back. He shredded it first (or some of it I suspect) into tiny threads then he mixed it in with a delicious broth and eat it. The broth was no doubt absorbed while the threads came out the other end.

            But it ain’t going to happen. 🙂

    • adam 6.2

      ipredict just another scam – used by dirty politics merchants.

      That you fisiani? Dirty?

    • Skinny 6.3

      He will be rolled the Tories are certain to lose going to the polls with the speedo kid still in charge.. Ipredict doesn’t take big bets, the 28℅ chance is manipulation. I would say Abbott has a 20% and dropping chance of survival.

  7. Neil 7

    Eventually people will wake up to these right wing govt’s & see them for what they really stand for.

  8. tc 9

    Tony is toast. He’s erratic, abrasive, arrogant, has lost his party, polls show him no longer trusted after breaking election promises and generally being a twat.

    If they want to be re-elected malcolm is their best shot who has his work cut out.

  9. English Breakfast 10

    Julia was destroyed by the MSM as much as by the people of Australia. They set a narrative for her and pursued it relentlessly, ably supported by Kevin Rudd. The post Howard years have been an embarrassment for Australia politically and economically.

  10. aerobubble 11

    Long lasting leaders have the effect of spoiling their ministers in such a way as to turn them into clueless… …abbott was howards replacement, howard mark II so to speak, and there in lies the rub, what howard did best, or clark, they did for a long time, and so its all the other issues that were handled badly or not at all. Take housing and key. That are needing leadership, but by being the heir apparent, the same model, they cant deliver. Just when they realise this, and raise upper income taxes, they turn off their base and gain supporters who would never trust them by actually backing them, as they just turncoated on their base already.

    So abbot is the wrong leader for australia, he only got in because the labour party were so weak that anyone leading the liberals could. Much like Key her, Labours weakness is also Keys, as it makes him look sad and pathetic kicking labour while their down. Great leaders have great oppositions. Key sad flag legacy says it all.

    • millsy 11.1

      Quite right. Turnbull as leader is the only way. Plain and simple.

      • aerobubble 11.1.1

        Turnball aint out in front of anything that matters. Oz needs higher taxes on the richest and protections for kiwis available to all australians.. …well except aboriginals since when has the oz state giving a…

  11. Te Reo Putake 12

    Live updates: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-09/live3a-liberals-meet-to-debate-abbott-spill-motion/6078320

    Key points from the link:

    The Liberal Party will meet in Canberra at 9:00am AEDT.

    Today’s Newspoll has Tony Abbott’s disapproval rating at 68 per cent and the Coalition trailing Labor 57-43 on a 2PP basis.

    Liberal senator Cory Bernardi accuses Malcolm Turnbull of destabilising the party.

    All seven Tasmanian Liberals say they will support Tony Abbott.

    Andrew Laming says he will support the spill motion.

    Fingers crossed Abbott survives, Turnbull might actually have a chance of winning the next election 😉

  12. Once was Tim 13

    Now I understand Karol’s absence!
    “Is Tony’s tenure terminal?”
    Talk about asking a bloody silly question on which we can all pontificate.

    THe guy’s a fucked unit and one in which it took a bit of time for ‘the Australian People’ to see through. The can’s been kicked down the road a bit’ but fuck me with a feather duster … if ever there was a bleeding obvious question, thiat is it!.

    NZ is a different kettle of slave laboured, foreign owned and staffed vessels with below Edna Everidge-waged paid-for-on-the-cheap fish with fishermen to match.
    Tick tock.

    I used to think NZers and Ockers were really quite similar. Now I realise NZers are more ‘laid back’ and willing to roll over for a tune-up in the rear end as well as the front.
    I now understand the difference, as well as Karol’s abscence which I miss.

  13. veutoviper 14

    Good finding, h/t Marc Fennell Twitter. https://twitter.com/marcfennell/status/564602910751735808/photo/1

    What goes round …

    “My question is to the Prime Minister. Given that one-third of her parliamentary colleagues have today expressed their lack of confidence in her, how can she claim to have a mandate to continue as Prime Minister?”

    The Member for Warringah, the Hon Tony Abbott, 27 February 2012 during Question Time on the day Gilliard won the 71-13 leadership ballot against Kevin Rudd.

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