I don’t want to talk about Saudi Arabia but it’s time.
On Saturday, after the Hamas assault, the Saudi Foreign Ministry released a statement that did not explicitly denounce the Hamas attack on Israel and instead made it clear that the Saudi government had repeatedly warned “ of the danger of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities.”
Qatar said roughly the same thing, as did Egypt.
The Syrian foreign ministry doubled down on that line and called the Hamas operation an “honourable achievement that proves the only way for Palestinians to obtain their legitimate rights is resistance in all its forms.”
Iran was basically bouncing up and down with glee.
Whereas in the United States, President Biden’s top aides scrambled on Sunday to reaffirm their commitment to the idea of potential normalisation of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, even as Israel prepares for a full-scale war against Palestinian militants.
On several American talk shows, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken cast normalization as a choice between regional peace and the terrorism carried out by Hamas, the militant group in Gaza.
“It would really change the prospects of the entire region far into the future,” Mr. Blinken said on CBS News of Israel’s broadening of relations with Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, the most powerful Sunni Muslim nation in the region.
“Now, who’s opposed to that? Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran. So, I think that speaks volumes. And there are really two paths before the region.”
Mr. Blinken added an important caveat, which was that the drive for a diplomatic deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia could not be a substitute for a two-state solution to address the needs of the Palestinians.
I think it’s reasonable to assume that normalisation effort is on hold as of now.
What will likely occur from Israel is a counterattack sufficient in scale, as they usually hope, to serve a deterrent purpose and yet also weirdly keep Hamas in power. According to a 2017 research brief by the Rand Corporation, Israel has the military capacity to wipe out Hamas, but doesn’t for fear that an even more extreme organisation could come into power. As such, Rand’s study says, Israel’s grand strategy became “’mowing the grass’ – accepting its inability to permanently solve the problem and instead repeatedly targeting the leadership of Palestinian militant organisations to keep violence manageable.”
Well that didn’t work. So the likelihood of a big ground attack would now be pretty high even if Netanyahu tried restraint – which he now has little political cause to do so.
The opportunity within Saudi Arabia and Israel normalising relationships is very, very high.
Equally the elements for normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia are not small. Saudi Arabia would get formalised security guarantees and US support and cooperation for the development of a Saudi civilian nuclear programme. In parallel, Saudi Arabia and the United States are expected to require Israeli concessions that minimally provide benefits to the Palestinians and that maximally reinforce the shared Saudi and US position of preserving the possibility of a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
For the US, the benefit is essentially expanding its military security command over the Middle East as never before, all the while creating opportunity to push back on China’s rising influence in the region.
For Israel’s part, normalisation with the Saudis would not only bring untapped economic benefits, but also fundamentally reshape its place in the region and potentially in the broader Islamic world.
So, much to play for.
Unfortunately it’s pretty hard to see that surviving what happens next.
On the other hand the 1979 Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty saw them hand back the entire Sinai Peninsula through 1982. That is the scale of enduring peace that can be achieved in the Middle East.
What high wisdom does Netanyahu have to game through this Hamas outrage?
And what finger will the Saudi royal family hold up to stay this violence and restore the pathway to enduring peace?
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