If you ever wanted an entertaining, succinct, yet devastating critique of the media handling of Climate Change then John Oliver’s recent attempt from his Last Week Tonight show should be compulsory viewing. Here it is …
@ 01:25 minutes: “The debate about climate change should not be about whether or not it exists but what we should do about it.”
What we should not be doing, is developing unconventional oil technologies like deep sea oil drilling, or fracking, nor should we be opening up any more new coal mines.
This just makes a mockery of political parties that make aspirational statements about New Zealand being carbon neutral in 2030 or 2050 or what ever stupid distant date they care to name that lets them avoid taking action in the here and now.
Bottom line
No Deep Sea Oil Drilling
No New Coal Mines at Mangatangi, or Denniston.
Wind down the rest, starting now.
Anything less is blatant and hypocrisy.
Cancel the government subsidies to the polluters and switch them to renewables industry.
I don’t disagree with you Jenny but civilisation needs to rid itself of its addiction to petroleum but not crashing and burning at the same time. So we need to have a crash carbon diet. The politics of getting there are cursed.
1) A controlled ditching, on our terms with everyone well braced for impact OR
2) A flameout and nosedive from 35,000 feet with champagne still served in first class all the way down.
Let me think what our power elite are going to pick.
Greg when you say the politics are cursed, What do you mean?
Do you mean that the fossil fuel lobby is too powerful for democratic government to oppose?
Fighting climate change is not a technical matter it is a matter of political will, do we not have the political leaders with the needed courage and intelligence and the determination to advocate for even the most minimalist program?
Look this is not extreme. Deep sea oil drilling is something that we never had before and wouldn’t miss. And No New Coal Mines is an extremely minimalist policy. Hardly crashing and burning. If we are committed to starting new coal mines now. We will still be mining coal way into the future for the foreseeable lifetime of these mines, way past the time when we should beginning to grandfather the already existing mines.
It is the prevarication and commitment to Business As Usual position which is the extreme position and will which will result in crash and burn.
We need concrete action in the here and now. But it is not happening. Why not?
Are we waiting for a super storm like Sandy or Haiyan to crash on our shores?
I mean politics will limit how far society goes with measures to address climate change. If a party goes too hard they will lose, if they do not go hard enough then irreparable damage will occur. I am hoping that the democratic system is able to deliver leadership that will be able to stop irreparable damage. Time will tell …
Only grass roots pressure from widespread popular movements and civil society organisations have any hope of pushing Parliament to do the right thing. Any isolated leader, no matter how talented, willing or well intentioned, without these popular movements backing them up will find resistance to change from establishment players pretty much unsurmountable.
This is exactly true CV but it is a balancing act. Popular protest alone won’t do it. Neither will government ministers in isolation acting alone can do anything. There has to be a melding of the two. Leadership from above is just as important as pressure from below. The model I refer to is the one that made New Zealand Nuclear Weapons Free.
If you remember it was the Labour Party in opposition in league with the huge protest movement that brought the legislation to the floor of parliament. This is the model we need to emulate.
It is one of the main reasons that I call for the Greens to stand out from cabinet, so that they are able to champion and speak for the gains of any popular movement in parliament. Bound by collective cabinet responsibility they will be stifled from giving a voice to such a movement.
And No New Coal Mines is an extremely minimalist policy.
Actually, it’s a rather stupid policy. Coal is a useful resource when it’s not burned to produce electricity.
A better policy would be: No coal mined in NZ will be burned to produce electricity. And yes, that means not selling it to other countries because we can’t guarantee that it won’t be burned.
We need concrete action in the here and now. But it is not happening. Why not?
All indications are that our politicians are owned by the rich and quite possibly the rich in other countries.
All indications are that our politicians are owned by the rich and quite possibly the rich in other countries.
Draco T Bastard
I actually don’t believe that. But politics is a strange thing, it is all about pressure, it takes a very remarkable individual to go against the main flow of opinion, very few have ever managed it, even with a support group around them. Who is giving the lead and applying the pressure and who isn’t. At present the fossil fuel lobby are, and they have as yet not properly met up with a counterbalancing force in society, at least not one that reaches into parliament.
Unlike the current situation, the hugely successful antinuclear movement was able to reach into parliament and influence opinion amongst MPs effectively winning over Government Members Mike Minogue and Marilyn Waring, tilting the ballance of power in the house.
We follow much in the steps of the USA and the USA is already a plutocracy.
But the reality is that our politicians aren’t making the changes required by the facts and they’re not making the changes required by the population. So what is driving them to the policies that they do promote and implement if it’s not the two things that they should be making the decisions upon?
And don’t forget the attitudes and recommendations of the civil service bureaucracy and deep state, and how far corporate influences have got in there as well.
Transition towns are at least making a start, and without waiting for permission from the government to do so.
The Blueskin Energy project has resulted from that initiative, and I seem to recall they are intending to open source their project so that it can be duplicated around NZ.
Hi Molly I applaud and support the Transitions Towns initiative where I can. I see them akin to the heroic citizens of the International Brigade that volunteered and went off to confront fascism in Spain. But what we must take from this is that to really defeat international fascism on a global scale there had to be national government and wider society buy in.
I might also add that Transition Towns currently require a contribution of financial and other resources that a large part of the population simply don’t have, no doubt when the crisis hits these efforts will be rapidly scaled up, how successful this will be in protecting the majority of the population is anyone’s guess.
A draft report prepared for the United Nations suggests, out loud, what the U.S. needs to do about CLIMATE CHANGE: Cut emissions to one-tenth of current levels, per person, in less than 40 years.
It’s perilous to say these things in the U.S., where a mere description of the scale of the climate challenge too often invites ridicule and dismissiveness. AMERICANS are each responsible for about 18 tons of carbon dioxide a year. Taking that down 90 percent would mean a drop in emissions to what they were in about 1901 or 1902. Cue ridicule and dismissiveness.
The report is entitled Pathways to ‘Deep Decarbonization’
The study contains detailed sections on each of a dozen large national emitters, including the U.S., China, Russia and the U.K. It suggests to national leaders that cutting carbon may be possible, without ECONOMIC compromise and without fear that they’ll have to go it alone. Such analysis might help them generate the political support they’ll need to make the UN climate negotiations in Paris at the end of 2015 successful.
This is where we come in. We are not one of the dozen large national emitters, but we could give them a lead and an example to point to.
The big polluters are all waiting on each other to make the first move.
What New Zealand does in 2015 could make or break these talks. There is still time for the main opposition parties to start campaigning for a blanket ban on Deep Sea Oil drilling and No New Coal Mines, in 2015.
Our new government could then go to these talks as a world leader and openly say that we have taken these iconic positions to show this country’s seriousness in fighting climate change.
This would truly see climate change become an election hot potato. The government would be left floundering, it is their weakest performing portfolio. On the issue of climate change they have no answers, they are in effect the emperor without clothes.
80% of the population are opposed to deep sea oil drilling,
As Gareth Hughes of the Greens has said, “If we really want to beat Deep Sea Oil Drilling we have to fight it on climate change grounds.”
60% want the government to do more on climate change.
This is a large constituency just waiting to be tapped.
From the report:
Talking about cutting emissions back to 1901 levels should strike many as crazy talk. It would be nice if it were crazy talk. Instead, it’s a WORTHWHILE description of the challenge at hand.
There’s no question that there are still “technically feasible” pathways to a low-carbon economy. The bad news is that, without political buy-in, exploring technical feasibility is basically a parlor game. And political buy-in isn’t going to come about in the U.S. through reports suggesting that AMERICANS should reduce their emissions to a tenth.
Elected officials can use studies like this to generate support for clean-energy policies. But in some places, like the U.S., the same studies can hinder policy development. It’s a chicken-and-egg thing.
New Zealand could be that egg from which global action could hatch.
… national National government Party buy in. FIFY.
Same goes for child poverty, and every other issue under the sun. The Right is lost in belief and proud of it*. Either that or they’re intent on murder-suicide with the rest of us as the unwilling partners.
We would not be having this debate otherwise.
*I include Margaret Thatcher in this – her science-driven early (for a politician) recognition of the problem was dwarfed by the damage her dogma did.
if they admit to climate change then they wont be able to get any more soap or elastic for their underpants.
not to mention the estates in the hamptons and the 10 car garages, international travel adnd esxpensive hotels and personal assistants (slaves).
it means the end of the “system”.
show me any politician will go against the material things of no practical use produced by industrialism and the tawdry dreams manufactured by the dream factories.
sorry folks but humanity is just going to have to ride this one out.
tough titty.
in the meantime the seas will be acidified and species extinction will severely curtail the ability to continue unlimited growth and expansion.
The media problem is more general than this. When an established fact is at odds with either a significant number of viewers’ opinions or at odds with elite opinion, the media won’t report the fact. They will inevitably slip into reporting what the polls say as a means of avoiding taking a position.
It’s strange: the institutions that we employ to inform us about the facts that we don’t have the time or resources to find out for ourselves end up reporting to us what our uninformed opinion of those facts is. It’s an endless loop of mutually reinforcing derp.
Sometimes they’ll even report a fact as a fact and in the next sentence slip into talking about public opinion as a way of discounting it.
Look up the “Kochtopus” to see how big money influences what we got told in the media. From funding friendly research, to publishing only the results that are ‘acceptable’, to owning the media channels and spin merchants. It’s a complete system of disinformation.
A complete reform of the media is long overdue. Professional journalism plays an important role in a healthy society – metaphorically they are like the eyes and ears of the body of society.
No wonder we are deaf and blind to what is really going on.
The system of global media story syndication, evisceration of counterbalancing local investigative journalism, and funding of right leaning think tanks which pump out a continuous series of credible looking ‘news worthy’ discussion points, is how it is done.
It’s nowhere near perfect of course. Look at how we are able to discuss what we are discussing now. But you will note their many legal and technological attempts to start squeezing down discourse and dissent over the internet.
My usual gripe with ‘climate change’ which i will habitually mention here: depletion of affordable fossil fuels within 20 years is the main problem. It is going to lead to a chaotic and rapid decarbonisation of the global economy as well as a very limited ability to deal with the longer term effects of the climate change which is already inevitable.
We have this short time period within which to get NZs social, economic and infrastructure systems in place. If we do not use this remaining window of opportunity wisely, we will be making life for future generations of Kiwis much harder than it needs to be.
Despite Hurricane Sandy blowing right through their campaign and throwing their schedules into disarray, both Obama and Romney remained steadfast in giving the climate as little air time as possible.
And for the first time since 1984 climate change wasn’t mentioned in any of the presidential debates.
“End Climate Silence”
Here’s a remarkable thing. Neither Mitt Romney nor Barack Obama – with the exception of one throwaway line each – have mentioned climate change in the wake of hurricane Sandy.
They are struck dumb. During a Romney rally in Virginia on Thursday, a protester held up a banner and shouted “What about climate? That’s what caused this monster storm”. The candidate stood grinning and nodding as the crowd drowned out the heckler by chanting “USA! USA!”. Romney paused, then resumed his speech as if nothing had happened. The poster the man held up? It said “End climate silence”.
While other Democrats expound the urgent need to act, the man they support will not take up the call. Barack Obama, responding to his endorsement by the mayor of New York, mentioned climate change last week as “a threat to our children’s future”. Otherwise, I have been able to find nothing; nor have the many people I have asked on Twitter. Something has gone horribly wrong.
The studied silence around climate change in the US presidential election race, in 2012 mirrored the same studied silence on the climate change that was observed by all parties in the New Zealand elections the previous year.
And sadly in David Cunliffe’s recent inaugural 2014 election speech given at the Labour Party congress last week.
In the wake of the severe flooding and storms in the North that look to become a regular seasonal event.
Just like Obama and Romney in 2012, after Sandy, if he continues this studied silence David Cunliffe risks becoming isolated and embarrassed in his silence over climate change.
My hope is that in deliberately leaving any mention of climate change from his inaugural election speech, that David Cunliffe intends to give this subject the proper attention it deserves and has prepared a dedicated address on climate change that will set out what concrete measures the Labour Party intend to implement on coming into government.
(That any policy can make a difference now): This is, Lovelock says, a deluded fantasy. Most of the things we have been told to do might make us feel better, but they won’t make any difference. Global warming has passed the tipping point, and catastrophe is unstoppable.
“It’s just too late for it,” he says. “Perhaps if we’d gone along routes like that in 1967, it might have helped. But we don’t have time. All these standard green things, like sustainable development, I think these are just words that mean nothing. I get an awful lot of people coming to me saying you can’t say that, because it gives us nothing to do. I say on the contrary, it gives us an immense amount to do. Just not the kinds of things you want to do.”
We’ve already pumped enough CO2 into the atmosphere to precipitate catastrophe, talk of policy making a difference is delusional.The MSM keep up the pretence we still have control, the truth would cause mass dismay.
Humanity is in a period exactly like 1938-9, he explains, when “we all knew something terrible was going to happen, but didn’t know what to do about it”. But once the second world war was under way, “everyone got excited, they loved the things they could do, it was one long holiday … so when I think of the impending crisis now, I think in those terms. A sense of purpose – that’s what people want.”
James Lovelock
The only difference is that today we don’t anywhere seem to have the necessary gutsy determined political leadership ready to step up to give us that sense of purpose. Leaders who can’t be bought or intimidated or easily fooled. Leaders prepared to go out on a limb to shame the political quislings and cowards and name and denounce the open traitors,
With the self assurance and certainty of purpose to be able to rally the population,
With the sense to listen to the scientific advisors, and with the courage to be able to stand up in the face of the arrogant and powerful plutocrats determined to drive us deeper and further and faster down the road to disaster.
“on the contrary, it gives us an immense amount to do. Just not the kinds of things you want to do.”
That to me is the nub of the whole issue especially in our western middle class lives – we will do what we want and that is the way we roll – selfish, ignorant, delusional and greedy – fuck the planet, fuck the developing nations, fuck the poor, fuck the future generations, fuck everyone and everything that isn’t me – guess what human, mother nature doesn’t like that attitude. So for the many that are repelled by the attitudes expressed above – what are YOU doing to prepare, what part of the “immense amount to do” are you getting on with.
So for the many that are repelled by the attitudes expressed above – what are YOU doing to prepare, what part of the “immense amount to do” are you getting on with.
blockquote>….he started insisting to anyone who would listen that Middle-earth was doomed, that there was no hope left in elves or dying Númenor, that Sauron’s final victory would surely come before—oh, I forget what the date was; it was some year or other not too far from now. He spent hours reading through books of lore, making long lists of reasons why the Dark Lord’s triumph was surely at hand. Why did he do that? Why, for the same reason that drove him to each of his other excuses in turn: to prove to himself that his decision to refuse the quest hadn’t been the terrible mistake he knew perfectly well it had been.
Just read an excellent book edited by David Cromwell and Mark Levene “Surviving Climate Change” published by Pluto Press. This is the most comprehensive, honest and pragmatic collection of articles that I have read. The writers do not waste time trying to prove the obvious but get straight on to solutions, political and legal blockages to change, consequences.
Refugee flows are going to be one of the major issues as populations flee drought, competition for water and food, and wars. You can see John Key starting to get NZers used to the rhetoric of exclusion and prejudice in his reactions to refugees and boat people. He has possibly been briefed by American sources eg Schwarz and Randall report for the Pentagon.
The awful truth appears to be that American preparations for climate change are predominantly involved with preparing for control, exclusion and discipline of refugee populations through new “non lethal” weaponry. Steve Wright.s chapter on refugee flows and the Pentagon response is worse than the most outrageous conspiracy theories and science fiction.
Fortunately the rest of the book is less terrifying and deals with how to effect change. Seems we need to move off endlessly going over the same tired arguments. Is it isn’t it etc.
Corporate laws that insist on ever increasing profits are one of the major problems and this needs a political solution. Worth asking MPs at political Forums what their policy is on MIA treaty and TPPA, as these bind sovereign states into considering the profit motive above all other factors.
They also recommend local solutions and collective action as effective and psychologically healthy responses. New Zealand has many advantages as we are small and nimble and have the remnants of democracy which can be revived post election. This really is the do or die Election. We just have to change the Govt. to get started on positive action. We can be a positive model for the planet to follow.
the whole raison d’etre of the media is to sell stuff to the masses with the false consciousness that posessing goods is the only road to happiness.
They are like the Spartans who wouldnt change their minds about their political system even as it crumbled around around them and could have been saved with the correct mental adjustments.
The media have only one goal and that is to exhaust the wealth of the world now before industrialism collpases.
Oh finally incontrovertible proof climate change is a hoax – the official denial from Murdoch
In an interview on Sky News on Sunday, Mr Murdoch spoke candidly about climate change, Australia’s political environment and its relationship with China. He said climate change should be treated with ”much scepticism”.
If the temperature rises 3C in 100 years, ”at the very most one of those [degrees] would be man-made,” he said. ”If the sea level rises six inches, that’s a big deal in the world, the Maldives might disappear or something, but OK, we can’t mitigate that, we can’t stop it, we have to stop building vast houses on seashores.
”We can be the low-cost energy country in the world. We shouldn’t be building windmills and all that rubbish,” he said.
Actually, no, John Oliver’s critique is not “devastating”, because it is based on an obvious untruth. In setting up his mock debate, Mr. Oliver tries to represent that skeptics are a group of people who “deny” that ANY warming is occurring.
But he is not alone. For several years, many on the left have been trying to shut up the climate skeptics both by grossly misrepresenting their viewpoint AND by completely misrepresenting the results of consensus surveys as meaning (falsely) that 97% of climate scientists believe that man-made global warming will have CATASTROPHIC results, which then justify the urgency for the world’s industrial powers to make significant changes to their energy policies.
As for that 97% so-called consensus, this could also be critiqued based on both the logical fallacy of making scientific conclusions by consensus AND the fact anyone who looks into the details would see how it was based a clearly faulty premise which discarded most of the over 11,000 research papers for expressing no opinion, eliminated others based on the pollsters own subjective criteria, and based on their own limited, and dare I say, manipulated remaining sample (less than 100), drew conclusions based on opinions expressed only in those papers, and then reported the results as a percentage of that very small sample. Anyone with a basic understanding of statistical analysis should see the problem with this.
But putting that all aside, the authors of the consensus STILL did not specify the degree to which the warming was human caused (just some, nearly all, or somewhere in between), or whether the “97% thought the consequences of this warming would be mild, dire or could not yet be determined. Regardless of these glaring faults and omissions, advocates of the catastrophic view irresponsibly used this consensus as yet another weapon in their war on any opposing viewpoints.
Likewise, for years those holding the catastrophic view have falsely been portraying “deniers” as a group of people who deny the obvious – that the world has been warming since 1950, that CO2 in the air has been increasing, that the increased CO2 is at least part of the cause of this warming, and therefore that some of the warming we have experienced during that period is caused by human activities.
Naturally, the reason for both of these gross misrepresentations – regarding the viewpoints of skeptics and regarding the consensus survey results – is that the left wants to be able to claim that the “debate is over” and that the “science is settled”, so they can have American and other industrial powers move on to the next step of implementing dramatic changes to their energy policy.
However, the logical and practical next step is not to hastily move on to making major changes in energy policy, but rather to conduct a cost-benefit analysis that considers both the consequences of not making energy policy changes, along with what negative things might result from making those changes. And there is a good reason why the left wants to skip over this important step, because they know full well that limiting the use of fossil fuels, particularly in developing countries, would have serious, costly, and in many cases, fatal consequences for many people across the globe, and that once those facts come out, support for their agenda will wither away.
So no, this “optimistic” viewpoint is not something new. The acceptance of the basic premise of warming and human contributions has been there for many years, and I would be happy to provide multiple links to show that this is the case. However, those favoring the “catastrophic” (or, as it were, “pessimistic”) viewpoint have been constantly distorting this for years, as they would much prefer to engage in a one-sided demagogue than in a debate that they know they would lose.
And ironically, the only way industrial powers would ever be convinced to make the dramatic and global changes needed to have any serious effect on atmospheric CO2 and on climate would be if we actually have the debate I suggest and if, to my surprise, those holding the catastrophic view can put forth convincing data which shows that they are correct, and that therefore the costs and associated risks of making these sweeping energy policy changes is justified. So the irony is that the very debate that is needed in order to realistically bring about these changes is being suppressed by the side that believes that the changes or urgently needed.
As for that 97% so-called consensus, this could also be critiqued based on both the logical fallacy of making scientific conclusions by consensus AND the fact anyone who looks into the details would see…
Ok so you are simply lying. Lets be charitable and say that is simply because you are too ignorant to know how people doing science think. They are the “skeptics”. To be quite frank the “deniers” that I meet in discussion boards would have to be regarded as being simple minded amateurs compared to working scientists. They are trained to disbelieve their own ideas and test the multiple alternative hypothesis for validity. Because if they don’t then some other science prick will make a name out of disproving their ideas.
In 1978-1981 when I went to university to do a Earth Sciences degree we were aware as students of the anthropomorphic climate change theory. In terms of the physics, it was clearly correct that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would cause greenhouse effects. It was easy to show that in the lab. It was also clear then from isotopic analysis that the most of the decade on decade culmative changes in additional CO2 in the atmosphere were from fossil carbon fuels, again easy to show in the lab.
My geochemistry texts had sections on the analysis based on papers going back to the 1950s, just as they did on meteorites and everything else. That was the “consensus” then. It is something that is obvious to anyone who spent time understanding the basic science. Something you clearly have put no effort into attempting to do.
About the only thing that wasn’t understood was why we weren’t seeing the expected effects as fast as the “pure” physics suggested should happen. But of course they weren’t manifesting themselves on a daisyworld. A real world with lots of volatiles around isn’t even remotely as simple. Almost all of the work done since then to establish the more recent “consensus” you’re referring to happened a lot later.
That became obvious over the following decade as they extended the temperature measurements outside of the dust polluted skies of Europe and the US via ground stations and satellite IR. Then the oceans chemistry, temperatures, volumes, and speed of movement had to be at least partially established. Ice melt were factored in. Every thing had to be measured ever more precisely, widely, and continuously. It has been quite apparent since the early to mid-90’s to anyone with any significiant knowledge of earth sciences what the broad outlines were. Humans were causing climate change well above and directly opposite the underlying trends. Everything else after that was merely refining the models with updated observational data and getting better at predicting the interfaces between climate and decadal weather.
These days, I don’t know of a reputable working scientist (ie one with their beliefs not paid for by oil, gas and coal (usually by the Heartland Foundation)) in the earth sciences areas who doesn’t think that the effects are likely to be catastrophic for our type of civilisation over the next few centuries. The only real questions are how fast it is likely to arrive at the point of causing serious damage, how much adaption time there will be, and how long it will take to adapt. Those are the risks requiring assessment. I notice that you don’t address any of them preferring instead (like so many of the other whining deniers that I see here) to avoid looking squarely at the issues you purport to raise.
However, the logical and practical next step is not to hastily move on to making major changes in energy policy, but rather to conduct a cost-benefit analysis…
Waste more time? Oh yay! Another munter from oil, coal and gas wanting to waste more time so they can realize their reserves. That analysis of your conduct seems like a good working hypothesis to me, bearing in mind the number of these kinds of arseholes I have seen over the years. To prove you are not, then I have a question for you at the end…
But we already know the basic conservative and almost certain risk levels of climate change over the next century. Those are the ones that the IPCC puts out. Book one gives the most conservative estimates of climate change by a combined voice of a lot of knowledgeable scientists working in the areas around climate change. That is the current conservative consensus. They only take high probability and proven results to put into the models to give the range of outcomes shown.
Of course the sequential reports keep getting worse as evidence is found of reinforcements the tilt to climate shifts, evidence of the buffering of oceans and ice sheets reaching its limits, and the very limited countervailing effects of things like additional cloud cover. AR5 showed a much higher risk than AR4 as more information entered the high probability range and gets incorporated.
And the reports for AR6 is going to be a lot worse because now there is some solid evidence this year about the WAIS instability has been long speculated on, but never had a high enough probability to get into the IPCC models.
And ironically, the only way industrial powers would ever be convinced to make the dramatic and global changes needed to have any serious effect on atmospheric CO2 and on climate would be if we actually have the debate I suggest and if, to my surprise, those holding the catastrophic view can put forth convincing data which shows that they are correct…
But the only way to get the type of “convincing” of proof that you seem to be demanding is to let it happen and then examine the consequences in the aftermath. Of course this could result in some megadeaths and I’m sure that the surviving people of Bangladesh, Holland, Florida, Louisiana, South East England, and many other places won’t want you strung up by your balls if you just happen to be wrong about how fast water will rise – yeah right!.
The issue really is risk management where there is incomplete data. This isn’t a completely untapped area of analysis. Insurance companies, stockmarket traders, and politicians do it all of the time. So do scientists. For that matter, even people in households looking at how much they have to hold in liquid savings for emergencies do it – they assess their risks with distinctly imperfect information.
This is no different to trying to analyze the effect of putting cobalt casings on to H-Bombs (in what I perceive is your scenario we should have dropped the damn things to see if the “On The Beach” scenario was feasible), continually adding more fluorocarbons to the atmosphere (we should have seen if we really could fry peoples eyes by removing more ozone), persisting in dropping heavy metals into rivers and harbours in industrial quantities (those lovely cancer and miscarriage clusters not withstanding), or even looking at social policies (free education won’t increase literacy because the peasants are too stupid to read), etc etc. All of the conservative myths of the past that said because something hadn’t happened before in the lifetime of the bozo saying it, that it couldn’t happen and ignoring known risk levels.
If you can suggest a experiment that emulates the whole world, then even then it isn’t “proof”, and in any case a dipshit like yourself won’t accept it as being “valid”. There are no frigging certainties in science except if you carefully measure them throughout the actual object undergoing whatever effect you are testing for. Even then it is subject to questions about retroactive instrumentation and observational effects and a need to repeat the experiment several times.
Unfortunately we actually live on this world, and many of us don’t like the experiment going on now. Quite simply we already have a conservative assessed risk that is making insurance companies routinely building changed weather patterns into their policies.
To me, you sound like a complete paid for fuckwit without an ability to think. But hey, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Lets run an experiment on you to see what type of “denier” you are. Following your argument, lets look at what would allow you to be satisfied about the various parts of the probability risk matrix (I did an MBA as well). A typical denier will do almost anything else apart from trying to define what it would take to convince them that their belief is in fact incorrect.
I’ve tried asking them to provide links to papers, and then never heard back from them after I use their own links to show that they hadn’t read the farking things or they hadn’t looked for critiques (in other words they’d pulled them off some denier site without reading them themselves).
The best way I’ve found of elucidating what type of person I’m dealing with is to ask them to define their own parameters of skepticism.
SO
Tell me explicitly what you would regard as “convincing data” and then tell me how long that data would take to collect. OR
Tell me explicitly what you would regard as data required to disprove anthropogenic CO2 induced climate change and then tell me how long that data would take to collect. OR
Tell me (from the other side) what the certainty is of developing the mitigation and adaption technologies in time to deal with the worst case IPCC AR5 case. Because in the event that you are the fool and are quite wrong, the the other side of the risk equation will be to make sure that the technology required is available.
My bet is that
1. You cannot do any of the above because you have about as much scientific knowledge in this area as the hamster that your accounting prose above indicates. So your response will be on the effective order of “let god decide” and other such chiliastic nonsense. Quite simply you probably wouldn’t be prepared to take the time and study that answering that question will require. In which case you have a lot in common with the leaders of the “industrial powers”. Like them you rely instead on believing in people and/or gods. Rather than believing in the people who actually study the subject I suspect you believe in the dumb munters who make you or your investments feel safe rather than facing reality.
2. That your assessment in the first two will effectively say to wait for another 20-30 years without any changes based on probable risks and let the carbon mining continue in the meantime, while we find out for “certain”. In the latter one you will ignore the history of technology development and assume that an engineered and distributable solution can be reached and testing within a few years despite all of the evidence of the last 50 years of large scale developments that it cannot.
3. Meanwhile you will oppose taking any precautions against the known risks of developing new technologies (look at the history of nuclear fusion) or abating the severity of the risks of climatic shifts by abating greenhouse gas pollution. In other words oppose any gradualistic approach to abate possible risks.
4. Now queue the usual disappearance or the whining about how I am so mean to dumb hamsters and keep calling them names.
I have seen so many of these dumb arse whiners and time wasting shills sprouting the latest spin from the Heartland Foundation and its oil and coal funded clones that I’m getting more than a wee bit sick and tired of them.
Coasters Turn Out In Droves: It’s precisely the widening gulf between those with actual experience of things like guns, chainsaws and drilling machines, and those who regulate their use, that accounts for the angry crowd at Greymouth’s Messenger Park on Sunday, 17 November 2019. In the rarefied atmosphere where decisions ...
There are perennial arguments about the circumstances of the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963, and in particular whether more than one shooter is required by the evidence (such as the Zapruder film). Those who know little about physics frequently claim that the sharp backwards motion of JFK’s head as ...
Apparently, some people enjoy washing their cars. Each to his or her own, I suppose. I mean, some people like duck shooting, some people follow Coronation Street, and some people’s idea of a good day out is to sit on a grass bank at Seddon Park and watch cricket all ...
Last week we learned that New Zealand First had apparently tried to enrich itself from public office, with a dodgy forestry company linked to a number of NZ First figures sticking its hand out repeatedly for government money. Today in Question Time Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones had his ...
Finally, governments seem slowly to be beginning to act on climate change. But its not enough. While they're publicly signing up to targets, they're planning to destroy the world by continuing fossil fuel extraction:The world’s nations are on track to produce more than twice as much coal, oil and gas ...
Stuff has begun interviewing NZ First's secret donors, and it turns out that its as bad as we expected. They start with racing industry figure Garry Chittick, who is predictably grumpy about NZ First's coalition choices. Meanwhile, I'm looking at the list of pork NZ First has effectively given its ...
Stag At Bay: Twelve years ago, Winston Peters was still robust enough to come back from the political crucifixion which his political and media enemies had prepared for him. In his seventies now, the chances of a second resurrection are slim. We should, therefore, prepare for the last gasp of ...
Satellites pass over NZ all the time (literally). Here I focus on the 187 Planet Labs ‘Dove’ Earth-imaging satellites, and I show that one can determine in advance where they will be, enabling scientists on the ground to correlate their environmental and other data collection with opportunities to get imaging ...
The Council of Disobedient Women has learned that the Prefect of Aro Valley has been promoted to a new role with the blessing of the Pope of Wellington. Softy Jejune Parson has been appointed Mother Superior of Woke Wellington for the work she has been doing calling out heretics, ...
On both sides of the Atlantic, some purportedly “contentious” and “difficult to deal with” leadership contenders to lead the US and UK, as President and Prime Minister respectively, seem to have thrown a few spanners into the works of the normal messaging most are used to hearing constantly. Except they’re ...
In Question Time today the Prime Minister was naturally facing questions about Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and his dubious party financing arrangements, which seem to violate electoral finance law. Her response was to pretend that it was nothing to do with her, and that she is not responsible for ...
A prisoner stripped of their name, imprisoned for a secret crime after a secret trial, with all details legally suppressed for secret reasons. A story by Kafka or Dumas? China? No, its just the latest stage of Australian tyranny:An Australian citizen was prosecuted, convicted, and jailed in the ACT last ...
Stuff has more details on what New Zealand First's slush-fund has been funding, with much of the spending directly benefiting the party. Which makes it look a lot like hidden donations, rather than the completely-innocent-giant-pile-of-cash Winston is trying to portray it as. The Electoral Commission is now investigating, but Simon ...
I've joked before about how hosting international summits effectively turns part of your country into a police state for the duration. Well, New Zealand is hosting APEC in 2021, with events throughout the year in Christchurch, Wellington, and Auckland. And the government has put up a bill to give itself ...
Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nzI saw an article claiming that “king tides” will increase in ...
It has been revealed that firing ranges used by the NZDF while deployed to the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Bamyan Province, Afghanistan, contained unexploded ordnance that caused numerous deaths and injuries after the NZDF withdrew the PRT in April 2013. In 2014 seven children were killed when an unidentified ...
Didn't See It Coming: NZ Herald columnist Lizzie Marvelly's latest column merits serious scrutiny because such a clear example of anti-democratic thinking is encountered only rarely on the pages of the daily press. Which is not to say that the elitism which lies at the heart of such social disparagement ...
by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh Initially it was reported that in an aerial bombardment that took place on August 30th seven children were massacred; the figure then went up to eight and then on November 11th Noticias Uno reported that, according to people from the community in close proximity to the ...
A lot has happened since the UN’s report on 1.5ºC was released in October 2018. New Zealand’s Zero Carbon Bill has passed, and enshrines the 1.5ºC goal in law. The UK and France have also legally strengthened their targets to Net Zero 2050. The School Strike For Climate and Extinction ...
Next year is an election year, and Labour needs money to fund its campaign. So naturally, they're selling access:Labour is charging wealthy business figures $1500-a-head to lunch with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at its annual conference later this month. [...] On the weekend beginning November 29th, around 800 delegates will ...
Yesterday the government announced its changes to tenancy laws, including an end to no-cause evictions, limits on rent increases, and anonyminity for tenants who defend their rights against bad landlords (sadly necessary because landlords are scum who maintain blacklists of "uppity" tenants). They're all good moves, and have resulted in ...
In 2003 New Zealand sent a Provincial Reconstruction Team to Afghanistan to support America's doomed war there. While there, they conducted regular weapons practice on local firing ranges, littering the landscape with unexploded ammunition. These ranges weren't secure - they're on land used by locals for animal herding - so ...
Green MP Gareth Hughes has announced he will retire at the election. Its understandable - he's been there ten years, and wants to actually see his children grow up rather than miss it while drowning in the toxic parliamentary sewer. But his departure is also a huge loss for the ...
Words and images by Jacqui GibsonGone are Auckland Museum’s days of doing science using a museum-centric academic approach, after Māori land rights holders Ngāti Kuri gave the museum an ultimatum.Tom Trnski holding a fossilised whale tooth from the Far North.Aussie-born Head of Natural Sciences at Auckland Museum ...
MediaWorks announced in October 2019 that it intended to sell off its struggling television business and cancel or cut back on several popular local programmes, including New Zealand Today, Married at First SightNew Zealand and 7 Days. Its radio and outdoor advertising arms are currently performing well, but MediaWorks’ ...
Westminster voting intention:CON: 44% (+3)LAB: 28% (-1)LDEM: 14% (-1)BREX: 6% (-)via @OpiniumResearch, surveyed this weekChgs. w/ 08 Nov— Britain Elects (@britainelects) 16 November 2019 This, of course, doesn't look good. Labour have been chucking big, headline grabbing policies left, right and centre ... Well, maybe not right. Left, left ...
Some readers may remember that I mentioned last year that I was applying for NZ citizenship. I filled out the paperwork and had my original citizenship interview in February. Everything went well until they discovered that, because I had spent five months in the US in 2017, I had not ...
by Deirdre O’Neill It is becoming quite acceptable for certain sections of the left to declare that people like me – women who are ‘gender critical’ – should not be allowed in leftist or anarchist spaces. Leaving aside the arrogance and implicit authoritarianism of this claim, its lack of critical ...
There is an article in The Conversation, written by Jeremy P. Shapiro (Adjunct Assistant Professor of Psychological Sciences, Case Western Reserve University), about what he sees as the psychologically-based underpinnings of three main matters that seem to vex people all around the planet. The article is titled “The Thinking ...
. . Blogger Martyn Bradbury has won his case against unreasonable search and surveillance against the NZ Police; and subsequent Police attempts to produce evidence in secrecy, in a closed Court. His case highlights a disturbing growing trend in Aotearoa New Zealand for State power to be used against ...
The Committee of Disobedient Women has intercepted an email from Dr Emma Eejut, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Massey University to the university’s Vice-Chancellor, Jan Thomas. Dear Jan, Thank you for your courageous move. I think 10 pages of blether** should tie any of the students game enough to try holding ...
That's the only response to the findings of the Ombudsman's investigation into LGOIMA practices at the Christchurch City Council:My investigation identified serious concerns about the Council’s leadership and culture, and its commitment to openness and transparency. In particular, Council staff raised concerns with me about various methods employed by some ...
NZ First seems to be nakedly trying to enrich itself from public office:A powerful New Zealand First figure helped establish a forestry company that then pushed for money from two key funding streams controlled by a New Zealand First Minister. An RNZ investigation has found Brian Henry, lawyer for Winston ...
Behrouz Boochani is an award winning author and journalist. He is also a refugee, who for the past six years has been detained in Australia's offshore gulag on Manus Island, and in Papua New Guinea. But last night, with the cooperation of the WORD Christchurch festival and Amnesty International, he ...
Different Strokes: If a multicultural immigration policy imposes no obligation on immigrant communities to acknowledge and ultimately embrace their host nation’s most cherished traditions and values, then how is that nation to prevent itself from being reduced to a collection of inward-looking and self-replicating ethnic and cultural enclaves?THE COALITION GOVERNMENT’S ...
Protective Zone: Reading the rules and guidelines released by Massey University, it is impossible to avoid the conclusion that its governing body considers the whole concept of free speech a disruptive threat to the orderly imparting of orthodox academic knowledge.IN TRUE ORWELLIAN fashion, Massey University has announced its commitment to ...
Brian Oliver, University of Technology SydneyNew South Wales and Queensland are in the grip of a devastating bushfire emergency, which has tragically resulted in the loss of homes and lives. But the smoke produced can affect many more people not immediately impacted by the fires – even people many ...
Farmers held a hate-march on Parliament today, complete with MAGA hats, gun-nut signs, and gendered insults. While supposedly about a grab-bag of issues - including, weirdly, mental health - it was clear that the protest was about one thing, and one thing only: climate change. And specifically, forestry "destroying" rural ...
Sally Wasef, Griffith University and David Lambert, Griffith UniversityThese days, not many Aussies consider the ibis a particularly admirable creature. But these birds, now colloquially referred to as “bin chickens” due to their notorious scavenging antics, have a grandiose and important place in history – ancient Egyptian history, to ...
The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security released their annual report today, and I've been busy reading through it. In amongst the usual review of what they've been doing all year, there's a few interesting bits. For example, a discussion on "agency retention and disposal of information", which points out that ...
Recently more than 150 post-graduate students and young scientists presented an open letter to the Green Party via The Spinoff, encouraging them to reconsider their position on genetic modification. Their target is tackling climate change issues.[1] Can any party continue to be dismissive about genetic modification (GM) contributing to ...
by Deirdre O’Neill Under Thatcher and then Blair and continuing up until our contemporary moment, the working class has seen its culture slowly and progressively destroyed. The change from an industrial society to a service society produced a marked shift in focus from the working class as the backbone of ...
Since 2013, the Australian government has detained refugees without trial in Pacific gulags, where they are abused, tortured, and driven to suicide. The policy is not just an abuse of human rights and possible crime against humanity; it has also had a corrosive effect on the states Australia uses as ...
It seems fair to say that we currently live in a problematic political moment in world history. Democracies are in decline and dictatorships are on the rise. Primordial, sectarian and post-modern divisions have re-emerged, are on the rise or have been accentuated by political evolutions of the moment such as ...
Last month, Greenpeace head Russel Norman surrendered his speaking slot at an EPA conference to student climate activist Sorcha Carr, who told the EPA exactly what she thought of them. It was a bold move, which confronted both regulators and polluters (or, as the EPA calls them, "stakeholders") with the ...
The core principle supposedly underlying New Zealand's electoral finance regime is transparency: parties can accept large donations from rich people wanting to buy policy, but only if they tell the public they've been bought. Most parties abide by this, so we know that TOP was wholly-owned by Gareth Morgan, and ...
Today is a Member's Day, probably the second-to-last one of the year, and its a big one, with the Third Reading of David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill. last Member's Day it was reported back from committee, after MPs voted narrowly to make it subject to a (rules TBA) ...
Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nzThe growth of the human population over the last 70 ...
by The Council of Disobedient Women In her excellent oral submission to the Abortion reform select committee on 31st October on behalf of Otago University’s Department of Public Health, historian and public health researcher Hera Cook stated: “We would ask that the committee not use the term ‘pregnant persons’ and ...
by Don Franks In 1957, E M Forster wrote, of his greatest work: “The India described in ‘A Passage to India’ no longer exists either politically or socially. Change had begun even at the time the book was published ( 1924) and during the following quarter of a century it ...
The Referendums Framework Bill was due back from select committee today. But there's no report on it. Instead, the bill has been bounced back to the House under Standing order 29593) because the Committee didn't bother to produce one. They probably tried. But given the membership of the committee (which ...
Two years into New Zealand’s Labour-led government, the long-delayed Zero Carbon Bill became law on 7 November. Passed essentially unanimously, the lengthy public debates and political manoeuvring faded away until the final passage was even anticlimactic: Flipping through the @nzstuff@DomPost I was starting to wonder if I’d dreamt ...
Now the Zero Carbon Bill is law, what's next? Obviously, the ETS changes currently before select committee are going to be the next battleground. But we're also going to get a good idea of where we're going, and if the progress the Zero Carbon Act promises is good enough, during ...
Grant PearceThe effects of the current Australian bushfires in New South Wales and Queensland (and also again in California) are devastating and far-reaching. To date, the fires have resulted in several lives being lost and many homes and properties destroyed. Here in New Zealand, the impacts have been only ...
A passing comment in a post the other day about the labour force participation rates of older people prompted me to pull down the fuller data and see what we could see about various participation rates over the decades since the HLFS began in 1986. As it happens, the ...
Distract And Divert: The rise of what we have come to call “Identity Politics” represents the ideological manifestation of the ruling class’s objective need to destroy class politics, and of the middle-class’s subjective need to justify their participation in the process.THE RELIEF of the ruling class can only be imagined. ...
"I saw a newspaper picture,From the political campaignA woman was kissing a child,Who was obviously in pain.She spills with compassion,As that young child'sFace in her hands she gripsCan you imagine all that greed and avariceComing down on that child's lips?" ...
Dr Matt Boyd, Prof Michael Baker, Prof Nick WilsonThe Global Health Security Index which considers pandemic threats has just been published. Unfortunately, NZ scores approximately half marks (54/100), coming in 35th in the world rankings – far behind Australia. This poor result suggests that the NZ Government needs to ...
The Zero Carbon Act is inadequate, with a weak methane target designed to give farmers a free ride. But it turns out it could have been worse: Climate Change Minister James Shaw was so desperate to get National on board, he wanted to gut that target, and leave it in ...
The Herald reprints an Australian story on a couple of tragic deaths in Bali from drinking cocktails that had methanol in them. The story argues that methanol is likely the result of home distillation. But what the young tourists were experiencing was far from a hangover. They’d consumed a toxic cocktail ...
Last month, the police announced a trial of specialist roaming armed units, which would drive round (poor, brown) areas in armoured SUVs, armed to the teeth. When they announced the trial, they told us it was about having armed police "ready to attend major incidents at any time if needed". ...
Spain went to the polls today in the second elections this year, after the Socialists (who had come to power in a confidence vote, then gone to the polls in April) rejected the offer of a coalition with the left-wing PoDemos, and instead decided to gamble n a better outcome ...
A couple of days ago I attended (and spoke at) the University of Waikato’s “LearnFest” event. There were lots of talks and sessions on very diverse aspects of teaching, mostly at tertiary level. One was by Myra Williamson from Te Piringa Faculty of Law here at Waikato, on Contract Cheating ...
There will be a transit of Mercury – the planet Mercury will pass across the face of the Sun – taking place at sunrise in New Zealand on Tuesday, 12th November. It was by observing such an event 250 years ago that James Cook and his scientist colleagues were able ...
Since becoming the world’s first openly transexual mayor and member of parliament, Georgina Beyer has been recognised as a trailblazer for trans rights. Daphna Whitmore talks with her about where she sees the current trans movement We start out talking about legislation the government put on hold that would have ...
If FFNZ really put their faith in “Top Medical Journals” they would now be amending their billboards to recognise new research results. Image from FFNZ but updated to agree with the latest research. ...
National Messiah? Chris Luxon identifies himself as an evangelical Christian. If he is genuine in this self-characterisation, then he will take every opportunity his public office provides to proselytise on behalf of his faith. He will also feel obliged to bear witness against beliefs and practices he believes to be ...
I'm going to make a Reckless Prediction™ that the Tories have 'topped out' in the 'poll of polls' / Britain Elects multipoll tracker at about 38%, and in the next week we will start to see Labour creep up on them.In fact, we might just be seeing the start of ...
by The Council of Disobedient Women Lizzie Marvelly: “I may have missed this… has @afterellen gone all terf-y? Or am I reading something incorrectly? “ https://twitter.com/LizzieMarvelly/status/1191840059105742849 After Ellen is a lesbian website that is unashamedly pro-lesbian, as you’d expect. So why is Ms Marvelly so bothered about lesbians having their ...
Did you know there once was a time when it was illegal to be a gypsy (aka Romani) in Britain?That was between 1530, when the Egyptians Act was passed, and 1856, when it was repealed.Amongst other things, the act forbade the entry of 'Egyptians' into England, ordered those already there ...
Hon Shane Jones, Minister of Forestry The Government will further strengthen New Zealand’s wood processing sector as part of our focus on ‘value over volume’ in our forestry industry, Forestry Minister Shane Jones says. Minister Jones will today meet with forestry representatives in Northland to signal new measures to help the ...
New Zealand First are celebrating the announcement of an investment of $3.5 million into five new trapping devices. These are a range of bait and trap devices, all designed to be left unattended for long periods of time. NZ First conservation spokesperson Jenny Marcroft says that this latest development will ...
Clayton Mitchell, Spokesperson for Consumer Affairs The ‘wheel clamping’ Bill that will cap clamper fees to $100 passed its third readinginParliament today. New Zealand First welcomes The Land Transport (Wheel Clamping) Amendment Bill to combat predatory wheel clamping behaviour in what is currently a largely unregulated business. Cowboy clampers are: gouging ...
Jenny Marcroft, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First welcomes the passage of the Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill through its first reading in Parliament. “Today’s progress takes serious action on the mental health and addiction crisis the country is facing,” says New Zealand First Health Spokesperson Jenny Marcroft. “The re-establishment ...
Mark Patterson, Spokesperson for Primary Industries Today the Government announced the delivery of the promise to protect New Zealand interests by applying a new National Interest Test to the sales of our most sensitive and high risk assets to overseas buyers. This further strengthening of the Overseas Investment Act will ...
The Coalition Government is delivering on its promise to protect New Zealanders’ interests by applying a new national interest test to the sales of our most sensitive and high-risk assets to overseas buyers. Under current Overseas Investment Act (OIA) rules, assets such as ports and airports, telecommunications infrastructure, electricity and ...
Rt Winston Peters, Leader of New Zealand First Allegations raised this morning by Stuff Limited / Fairfax concern a party matter but I am confident that New Zealand First has operated within electoral laws, now and for the last 27 years. Declarable donations were declared to the Electoral Commission. Our ...
The chairman of the Upper North Island Supply Chain Strategy (UNISCS) working group, Wayne Brown, has hit back at critics of his group’s recommendations to relocate the Ports of Auckland cargo operations to Whangarei’s deepwater port of Northport. The working group's recommendation to close Auckland waterfront to all but cruise ...
Jenny Marcroft MP, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First backs the public to decide on the End of Life Choice Bill via a referendum at the 2020 General Election. The Bill, with New Zealand First’s referendum provision incorporated, passed its final reading in Parliament this evening. New Zealand First Spokesperson for ...
Darroch Ball, Spokesperson for Justice New Zealand First is proud that a key Coalition Agreement commitment which will provide for a more transparent and effective criminal justice system has been realised. Legislation to establish the Criminal Cases Review Commission, an independent body focused on identifying and responding to possible miscarriages of ...
"Today we have made a choice that will leave a legacy... I hope that means that future generations will see that we, in New Zealand, were on the right side of history." - Jacinda Ardern, Third Reading of the Zero Carbon Bill ...
Darroch Ball, New Zealand First List MP A Member’s bill has been proposed that would provide income tax exemptions for all New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel while on operational deployment overseas. The Income Tax (Exemption for Salary or Wages of NZDF Members on Active Deployment) Amendment Bill proposed by New Zealand First ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, New Zealand First Leader New Zealand First is proud to have brought common sense to the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Bill, which passed its final reading in Parliament today. Party Leader Rt Hon Winston Peters says months of hard work went into negotiating a balanced ...
Jenny Marcroft MP, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First has listened to calls to recognise paramedics as registered health professionals under the Health Practitioners’ Competence Assurance Act (the Act).Today, the Coalition Government announced plans for paramedics to be registered as health practitioners under the Act, and the establishment of a ...
Stewart Island/Rakiura has been granted $3.16 million from the Provincial Growth Fund to help build two wind turbines, putting the island on a path to sustainable electricity generation, Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Stewart Island is our third largest island, after the North and South Islands, and it is ...
A major new report on the global economy shows New Zealand is in good shape amid increased global headwinds. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has just released its latest Economic Outlook. It shows the OECD group of economies is forecast to grow between 1.6% and 1.7% across ...
The Coalition commitment to add 1800 new Police officers to frontline policing has been achieved with the graduation of 59 constables from the Royal New Zealand Police College today. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters say today’s graduation means 1825 new Police have been deployed all ...
Ensuring APEC work gets input from diverse New Zealand business and trade interests is behind three new appointments to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC), Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says. Rachel Taulelei, Malcolm Johns and Toni Moyes have been appointed to represent New Zealand on the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) ...
Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā tatou katoa. Thank you for having me to speak today. To start, I’d like to acknowledge Sharron Lloyd, the General Manager of the Trans–Tasman Business Circle, the partners for this event Westpac’s David McLean, and Derek McCormack from AUT, and, of course ...
A four-month investigation by former Environment Court judge Professor Peter Skelton found that Otago’s freshwater planning system is not fit for purpose to manage the region’s rivers, lakes and aquifers and that the Council has inadequate rules for the taking of water and the discharge of nutrients. “Existing planning provisions ...
Introduction Thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This is the first opportunity I’ve had to speak to an LGNZ meeting since the local elections, and I’m delighted to see the fresh faces of newly elected mayors. To returning mayors here today, as well as chief ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters departs New Zealand today to attend the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Nagoya at the invitation of this year’s G20 President, Japan. “This is the first time New Zealand will attend a G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and we are deeply honoured that it is at ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters today announced the appointment of diplomat Carl Reaich as New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the European Union. “The Ambassador to the EU is one of the most important and senior roles in New Zealand’s foreign service, advocating for New Zealand’s interests with the EU institutions,” Mr ...
Innovation and technology are behind five new tools to give nature a helping hand by helping eliminate predators, funded through the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF), Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage and Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. “The new tools will be trialled in ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has welcomed the first reading of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation 2021 (APEC 2021) Bill in Parliament today. The temporary bill supports New Zealand’s security preparations for hosting the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in 2021. “APEC is the leading economic and trade forum ...
The Government is making progress on improving the wellbeing of the one million New Zealanders under the age of 18,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on World Children’s Day. The Government has today recommitted to the most widely ratified human rights treaty in history – the United Nation’s Convention on ...
Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter has released a new report celebrating the contribution of Māori women in business across Aotearoa New Zealand. “Māori women are leaders in our communities, they employ many people and support our economy and our communities,” Julie Anne Genter said. The report, Ngā wāhine kaipakihi: ...
Four parcels of land have been bought in Omokoroa, in the Western Bay of Plenty District, for an education facility that will accommodate both a primary and secondary school on a campus-like facility, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. Two parcels were acquired from private land owners and two were ...
1 million New Zealanders warmed by the Winter Energy Payment 36,000 families bank the Best Start Payment in first year 6,000 more families received the Family Tax Credit, 220,600 in total They receive an increase too – from an average of $117 to $157 a week for Inland Revenue clients, ...
New rules to clamp down on overzealous wheel clamping and extortionate fees charged in order to release a vehicle have passed their final stage in Parliament today. The Land Transport (Wheel Clamping) Amendment Bill has now passed its third reading. “These changes mean $100 will be the maximum wheel clamping ...
An independent Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission is a step closer after it unanimously passed its first vote in Parliament today. The Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill lays the groundwork for establishing the Commission as a fully independent crown entity – delivering on a key recommendation of He Ara ...
We’ve improved border security with the NZeTA, New Zealand Electronic Travel Authority, which helps us to screen travellers for border and immigration risks off-shore before they travel to New Zealand. It was launched in August and became mandatory on 1 October 2019. More than 500,000 NZeTAs have been issued since ...
A proposed national plan of action to reduce the number of seabirds caught in fisheries is being circulated for public feedback. Fisheries Minister Stuart Nash and Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage say New Zealand is a global centre of seabird diversity with about 145 species in our waters. It has more ...
The Government is delivering on its promise to protect New Zealanders’ interests by applying a new national interest test to the sales of our most sensitive and high risk assets to overseas buyers. Associate Finance Minister David Parker said under current Overseas Investment Act rules, assets such as ports and ...
The Government is building special housing to accommodate one of Aotearoa’s greatest taonga- our kaumātua, says the Minister for Māori Development, Hon Nanaia Mahuta. Speaking at a National Kaumātua Service Providers Conference in Rotorua today, the Minister reinforced the importance kaumātua play in maintaining and passing on mātauranga Māori, knowledge, ...
Eleven men from a pilot forestry training programme for prisoners in Northland now have full time jobs or job offers upon release, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis and Forestry Minister Shane Jones announced today. The ‘release to work’ programme was a collaboration between Te Uru Rākau and the Department of Corrections, ...
Minister of State Services Chris Hipkins today introduced into Parliament a Bill that will make it easier for the public service to tackle the biggest challenges facing Governments. The Bill represents the most significant change in the public service in 30 years. The State Sector Act 1988 will be repealed ...
The families of more than 416,000 students will be better off next year as their schools have signed up to the Government’s donations scheme, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. The scheme will see almost $62.5 million in additional Government funding go to schools nationwide next year. “I’m really pleased ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced further support as the Government of Samoa responds to a serious measles outbreak. “New Zealand will deploy a further 18 vaccination nurses, bringing the total to 30 working in Samoa over the next four weeks,” Mr Peters said. “A New Zealand Medical Assistance ...
Fa’atalofa atu, malo e lelei, Kia ora koutou katoa Thank you to the Child Poverty Action Group for asking me to be here today to provide an update on some of the things that have been happening across my the social development portfolio. Can I firstly acknowledge the vast ...
***Please check against delivery*** Good morning everyone. It is a pleasure to be with you this morning to open this year’s New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing Conference and AGM. Firstly, thank you Dr Alan Jackson, NZTR Chair for your introduction. And let us acknowledge also: The NZTR Board; Dean McKenzie, Chair ...
The Government has delivered on its promise to the over one million New Zealanders who now rent to make it fairer and more secure, Associate Minister of Housing (Public Housing) Kris Faafoi has announced today. Both renters and landlords will benefit from the suite of practical changes to the Residential ...
A marine conservation milestone - the 20th anniversary of the establishment of Te Tapuwae o Rongokako Marine Reserve - is being celebrated today at a community event in Tairāwhiti/East Coast attended by the Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “The creation of this marine reserve in November 1999 was a game ...
The Government is asking the food industry to step up work to tackle obesity including reducing sugar, fat and salt in their products, better information for consumers, and tighter restrictions on advertising to children. Health Minister David Clark and Food Safety Minister Damien O’Connor have responded to a ...
ew, modern emergency department and outpatient facilities at Queenstown’s Lakes District Hospital mean better emergency care for the growing tourist mecca’s visitors and locals, says Health Minister David Clark. Today Dr Clark officially opened the hospital’s redeveloped Emergency Department and Outpatient facilities. The new facilities include: • An extended Emergency Department ...
Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter says today’s release of sexual and reproductive health data reinforces the significance of the Government’s commitment to providing free or very low-cost contraception. The Ministry of Health today published statistics from the Ministry of Health’s 2014/15 Health Survey. “It is important people can make ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced that at the request of the Samoan Government, New Zealand will be providing further support to Samoa as it faces a worsening measles outbreak. “In response to a request from the people of Samoa, New Zealand is providing 3000 measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) ...
“The new Disability Action Plan 2019–2023 moves us towards the inclusive and accessible New Zealand that this government has committed to,” Minister for Disability Issues Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “The Action Plan was designed by disabled people, their family and supporters, the disability sector and government agencies. It will ensure ...
Third Singapore-New Zealand Defence Ministers’ Meeting 14 November 2019 Joint Statement 1. Defence Ministers Ron Mark and Dr Ng Eng Hen today conducted their third annual Singapore-New Zealand Defence Ministers’ Meeting in Singapore. 2. Building on the Enhanced Partnership signed between both countries in May this year, this annual meeting ...
A Bill to improve the court system’s response to sexual violence has passed its first reading in Parliament today. Justice Minister Andrew Little says the Sexual Violence Legislation Bill will reduce the trauma sexual violence complainants experience in court, while maintaining defendants’ fundamental rights and making sure the trial process ...
Streamlined payment practices are a step closer for Kiwi businesses with the formal launch of New Zealand’s e-Invoicing framework. Small Business Minister Stuart Nash says the government has now established the structure to enable automated and direct data exchange between the accounting systems of buyers and sellers. “The move to ...
Another 51 quarantine officers and four new biosecurity detector dog teams will help protect New Zealand from invasive pests and diseases this summer, says Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor. “The Government is delivering on its commitment to strengthen New Zealand’s biosecurity system and support our valuable primary sector “New Zealand’s flora, fauna ...
A new report has found New Zealand’s space sector contributed $1.69 billion to the economy in the last financial year and employs 12,000 people, Minister for Economic Development Phil Twyford announced today. The report by Deloitte was commissioned by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and shows New Zealand ...
Judge Coral Shaw has been appointed as the new Chair of the Royal Commission into Historical Abuse in State Care and in the Care of Faith-based Institutions, Internal Affairs Minister Tracey Martin announced today. "Judge Shaw, who is currently one of the inquiry commissioners, is extremely well qualified for the ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 #NoFly by Shaun Hendy (Bridget Williams Books, $15)“I was flying as if I didn’t believe in climate ...
Are ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s coalition beginning to live in a dreamworld of their own, distant from the one where ordinary New Zealanders live? In Parliament, in answer to patsy questions from their own backbenchers, they congratulate themselves on their extraordinary ( as it seems to them) achievements. They appear ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra [embedded content]University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini discusses the Westpac scandal with Michelle Grattan. They then delve into the government’s recent changes to the robo-debt program, and Scott Morrison’s announcement that the government will be ...
What, for example, is a pitchfork wrapped in tinsel doing over there, leaning up by an umbrella? Toby Manhire writes a speculative article.A tumultuous week for Winston Peters and his New Zealand First Party has seen story after story raise troubling questions around donations. He’s not happy about it.What do ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Senior Lecturer in Personal Development, Health & Physical Education / Course Director of Postgraduate Studies in Education, Charles Sturt University In a study published in The Lancet today, we find out how 1.6 million adolescent school students from across 146 ...
The Otago Fish and Game Council supports Environment Minister David Parker’s decision, especially his directive that Mining Rights won't be extended beyond the 2021 deadline provided in the RMA. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Marriott, Professor of Taxation, Victoria University of Wellington A Court of Appeal decision in New Zealand set a precedent last month, allowing offenders to argue their drug addiction should be considered a mitigating factor. Methamphetamine dealers who can prove their personal ...
It was not a great week for NZ First - stuff that Prince Andrew would describe as conduct unbecoming of a political party, but which is very much becoming of NZ First. James Elliott gets slush fund, secretive and coterie all in one sentence about Winston Peters. ...
Just notifying that you have prohibited firearms or parts is not meeting your legal obligations, say Police who urge firearms owners to hand in their items now. ...
A new poem by Belfast-based poet J. Taylor Bell.the other day i witnessed a man seize with epilepsy in the produce sectionthen the bottom fell out of the plastic bag on the long diaspora between self-checkout and the deserts of the kitchen counter i felt like napoleon the morning after ...
We wonder if we were supposed top be gobsmacked, consternated or otherwise thunderstruck by the headline we encountered at the top of page 16 in our Dominion-Post today. “Fracas in Parliament,” it bellowed in a truncated version of the headline that can be found on the same report at Stuff. The ...
From academia to activism to media, Asian women are often ridiculed, overlooked and dismissed. Helen Yeung talks to Asian New Zealand women about the everyday racism they face – and how they’re fighting back.Last year, I was at the launch of an academic journal which included my essay on East ...
The Provincial Growth Fund is putting $3.16 million towards building two wind turbines on Rakiura / Stewart Island, where electricity is at present produced by diesel generators. ...
The enduring crisis of child poverty in Aotearoa New Zealand must be addressed with greater energy by government, the country’s professional body for social workers said today. ...
This week's biggest-selling New Zealand books, as recorded by the Nielsen BookScan New Zealand bestseller list and described by ReadingRoom literary editor Steve Braunias. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Anthony Albanese puts a “productivity project” at the centre of his economic agenda in the second of his “vision statements”, which seeks to further distance him from the Shorten era. “Productivity is the key to ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage.New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.Today’s content by Dr Bryce Edwards.NZ First Matt Shand (Stuff): ‘I am the dark shadow of NZ First’ – what ...
Credit Union Baywide, trading as NZCU Baywide, New Zealand’s largest customer owned credit union, has acquired Co-op Money NZ, the supplier of core banking services and support infrastructure to some of the country’s credit union sector. ...
New Zealand leaves Australia for dust on internet speeds and our children are practically born using fibre, but major challenges lie ahead, writes Rohan MacMahon.Congratulations, New Zealand: three quarters of you now have ultra fast broadband (UFB).This week Chorus hosted an event at Parliament to mark the completion of Phase ...
The Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito Tofae Su'a William Sio is advising Samoan families planning on going back to the islands for Christmas to take precautions against measles. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael Helene Nolan, Postdoctoral research fellow, Western Sydney University Why does wood crackle in a fire? – Rocco, age 6 (nearly 7!) Hi Rocco, that’s a great question. I love sitting in front of a fire, listening to it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ihsan Yilmaz, Research Professor and Chair in Islamic Studies and Intercultural Dialogue, Deakin University The political influence of the far-right, along with a more salient national security agenda, has spurred a growing anti-Muslim sentiment and deep social division in Australia. In fact, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philippa Martyr, Lecturer, Pharmacology, Women’s Health, School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Western Australia You might remember how Gwyneth Paltrow’s health and well-being website Goop was selling “medical” products with no proven measurable health benefits. Decluttering expert Marie Kondo may be going ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda Newman, Associate Professor, University of Newcastle Many parents and educators agree children need to take risks. In one US study, 82% of the 1,400 parents surveyed agreed the benefits of tree-climbing outweighed the potential risk of injury. Parents cited benefits including ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Lawson, Honorary Associate Professor, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University In the year since the Australian government created the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC), its bond aggregator, AHBA, has raised funds for affordable housing providers, allowing them to refinance ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Naomi Soderstrom, Professor of Accounting and Deputy Head of Department, University of Melbourne Sydney is currently blanketed by smoke haze from severe bushfires that have burned through New South Wales. Air pollution levels on Thursday reached hazardous levels for the second time ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW Australia’s system of childcare support is pretty good. It ensures high-quality care is provided to a large number of children, it is targeted through income-based subsidies, and it is attentive to the needs of disadvantaged children ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Camilla Nelson, Associate Professor in Media, University of Notre Dame Australia Mary Ann Evans took the pseudonym “George Eliot” because she wanted to be taken seriously as a writer. Other female authors – Maria Edgeworth and Jane Austen, for example – had ...
Shane Jones downplays NZ First Foundation scandal by slamming 'despicable' media; and Green MP lambasts bill allowing overseas agents to carry otherwise-illegal guns in NZ. ...
New Zealand First has upped the ante in the saga over its mysterious foundation, with party leader Winston Peters' long-time lawyer Brian Henry threatening to sue National for $30 million. ...
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Focus shifts to lawyer in NZ First Foundation scandal, Canterbury hail smashes crops, and tobacco companies cynically raise prices under tax cover.
Around this time last year, a party leader had just brazened out a week of scandal, much of ...
A report from the NZ Disability Support Network has laid bare a funding crisis impacting every level of the sector. Here, Rachel Lodewyk, of Gisborne, says the health system is failing but parent-led trusts are offering solutions in desperate times. ...
With emissions still rising, climate geo-engineering requires debate. But political researchers fear people are falling into the same left/right tribalism that's long plagued climate politics. ...
Our kinship with plants is etched out in the mythology on which our societies are founded, and in the web of life it is a scientific fact that we are indeed close kin to the plant kingdom. So why do we not live like we are, asks Matt Hall.There are ...
There’s been outrage since it was revealed that up to one in five final year medical students at the University of Otago falsified their overseas placements by spending portions of that time travelling instead. But GP registrar and former Otago medical student Toby Hills finds himself empathising deeply with his ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Scott Morrison’s government is heading to the end of 2019 amid a debate about its economic judgement and with a number of substantial policy moves started but not completed. Morrison this week delivered to an ...
Newsroom's major investigations into Oranga Tamariki and a Fijian resort development have won us the award for best current affairs programme at the NZ TV awards. ...
The government is facing criticism that it is not doing enough, fast enough to raise people out of poverty. But Minister Carmel Sepuloni says her ministry are working as quickly as possible. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Christoff, Associate Professor, School of Geography, University of Melbourne A new United Nations report shows the world’s major fossil fuel producing countries, including Australia, plan to dig up far more coal, oil and gas than can be burned if the world ...
New Zealand First leader and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters with Governor General Dame Patsy Reddy and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.New Zealand is officially one of the least corrupt countries in the world. But it could be argued that our political system is still biased in favour of the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scott Hamilton, Strategic Advisory Panel Member, Australian-German Energy Transition Hub, University of Melbourne The possibilities presented by hydrogen are the subject of excited discussion across the world – and across Australia’s political divide, notoriously at war over energy policy. Read more: Hydrogen ...
The Real Pod assembles to dissect the week in reality television and real life, with special thanks to Nando’s.We’re still buzzing after the rip-roaring success of the Corny Christmas party this week and we won’t even let a rogue earwig in the studio dampen our spirits. There’s a lot of exciting ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Heidi Norman, Professor, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are advised this article contains images and names of deceased people.Review: Linear, Powerhouse Museum, Sydney The value of Australian First Peoples’ scientific ...
Sam Brooks reviews the latest generation of the Pokémon games which finally hits the big-ish screen.“I love Pokémon but I wish I could play it on my TV.”I’ve been playing Pokémon for 20 years and that’s been the main thing I’ve heard from my fellow Pokémon friends/fans. The games have been engrossing, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Dickinson, Professor, Public Service Research, UNSW National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) Minister Stuart Robert this month announced a number of “practical changes” to the scheme. Acknowledging the NDIS is not consistently living up to expectations, he said these improvements will put ...
The trustee of the New Zealand First Foundation and Winston Peters' personal lawyer has threatened a $30 million lawsuit against a National MP, in the latest twist of the donations scandal. ...
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is a regional economic forum based in the Asia-Pacific Region. New Zealand will host APEC 2021 in November 2021, with related events running for a year from December 2020 until November 2021. ...
Business is Boring is a weekly podcast series presented by The Spinoff in association with Callaghan Innovation. Host Simon Pound speaks with innovators and commentators focused on the future of New Zealand. This week he talks to Dr Brian Ward of soft-tissue repair company Aroa.Dr Paul Callaghan, who inspired Callaghan ...
Emerging political leaders from 15 Pacific countries and territories will be in New Zealand next week to meet with one and other, and their New Zealand counterparts, to discuss major challenges and opportunities in the Pacific. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Billingsley, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, UNSW The small number of Australians being held in prison camps in northern Syria has been an ongoing, albeit low-level, challenge for the Australian government. There are believed to be eight Australian fighters for ...
Louise Mensch is set to hit New Zealand airwaves this evening. Who is this conspiracy theorist and what could she possibly be saying to Lisa Owen?Who is Louise Mensch?She’s a former Tory MP, founder of the Rupert Murdoch-funded “no safe spaces” website Heat Street, a romance novelist, and a conspiracy ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis McNevin, Professor of Forensic Genetics, University of Technology Sydney Designer baby, anyone? A New Jersey startup company, Genomic Prediction, might be able to help you. Genomic Prediction claims to be able to use DNA testing to predict disease risk in an ...
Marion McLeod revels in the return of Olive Kitteridge, the compassionate curmudgeon who won Elizabeth Strout a Pulitzer Prize. It’s the year of the sequel: My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3, Toy Story 4, Rambo 5 … Do movies ever make it to double figures? Books and miniseries certainly do. Genre ...
National is questioning those in charge of the Provincial Growth Fund after it was revealed a NZ First-linked forestry company made an application to the fund, headed by NZ First MP Shane Jones. ...
James Borrowdale spent the last cricket season examining Neil Wagner and his unique approach to bowling. Today, in the first test of the Black Caps’ summer, Wagner returns.Neil Wagner has a wicket. He freezes mid-pitch, fists clenched at his side, knees slightly bent, a roar on his lips. His brows ...
A record volume of resales of units in its retirement villages has boosted Ryman's first half profit with the second half expected to be stronger than the first, the company says. ...
The main problem with HIV today is stigma – and it is almost entirely based on outdated information and fear, says Mark Fisher of HIV+ support organisation Body Positive ahead of the World AIDS Day Festival which opens in Auckland tomorrow.A person living with HIV on effective treatment cannot pass ...
The Department of Conservation (DOC) is hoping floating platforms will help to keep the chicks of a central Christchurch colony of critically endangered tarāpuka/black-billed gulls from drowning this breeding season. ...
John Oliver, the media and climate change 
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@ 01:25 minutes: “The debate about climate change should not be about whether or not it exists but what we should do about it.”
What we should not be doing, is developing unconventional oil technologies like deep sea oil drilling, or fracking, nor should we be opening up any more new coal mines.
This just makes a mockery of political parties that make aspirational statements about New Zealand being carbon neutral in 2030 or 2050 or what ever stupid distant date they care to name that lets them avoid taking action in the here and now.
Bottom line
No Deep Sea Oil Drilling
No New Coal Mines at Mangatangi, or Denniston.
Wind down the rest, starting now.
Anything less is blatant and hypocrisy.
Cancel the government subsidies to the polluters and switch them to renewables industry.
I don’t disagree with you Jenny but civilisation needs to rid itself of its addiction to petroleum but not crashing and burning at the same time. So we need to have a crash carbon diet. The politics of getting there are cursed.
Unfortunately I suspect our options now are:
1) A controlled ditching, on our terms with everyone well braced for impact OR
2) A flameout and nosedive from 35,000 feet with champagne still served in first class all the way down.
Let me think what our power elite are going to pick.
Greg when you say the politics are cursed, What do you mean?
Do you mean that the fossil fuel lobby is too powerful for democratic government to oppose?
Fighting climate change is not a technical matter it is a matter of political will, do we not have the political leaders with the needed courage and intelligence and the determination to advocate for even the most minimalist program?
Look this is not extreme. Deep sea oil drilling is something that we never had before and wouldn’t miss. And No New Coal Mines is an extremely minimalist policy. Hardly crashing and burning. If we are committed to starting new coal mines now. We will still be mining coal way into the future for the foreseeable lifetime of these mines, way past the time when we should beginning to grandfather the already existing mines.
It is the prevarication and commitment to Business As Usual position which is the extreme position and will which will result in crash and burn.
We need concrete action in the here and now. But it is not happening. Why not?
Are we waiting for a super storm like Sandy or Haiyan to crash on our shores?
I mean politics will limit how far society goes with measures to address climate change. If a party goes too hard they will lose, if they do not go hard enough then irreparable damage will occur. I am hoping that the democratic system is able to deliver leadership that will be able to stop irreparable damage. Time will tell …
Only grass roots pressure from widespread popular movements and civil society organisations have any hope of pushing Parliament to do the right thing. Any isolated leader, no matter how talented, willing or well intentioned, without these popular movements backing them up will find resistance to change from establishment players pretty much unsurmountable.
This is exactly true CV but it is a balancing act. Popular protest alone won’t do it. Neither will government ministers in isolation acting alone can do anything. There has to be a melding of the two. Leadership from above is just as important as pressure from below. The model I refer to is the one that made New Zealand Nuclear Weapons Free.
If you remember it was the Labour Party in opposition in league with the huge protest movement that brought the legislation to the floor of parliament. This is the model we need to emulate.
It is one of the main reasons that I call for the Greens to stand out from cabinet, so that they are able to champion and speak for the gains of any popular movement in parliament. Bound by collective cabinet responsibility they will be stifled from giving a voice to such a movement.
A democratic system probably would – pity we don’t have one.
Actually, it’s a rather stupid policy. Coal is a useful resource when it’s not burned to produce electricity.
A better policy would be: No coal mined in NZ will be burned to produce electricity. And yes, that means not selling it to other countries because we can’t guarantee that it won’t be burned.
All indications are that our politicians are owned by the rich and quite possibly the rich in other countries.
I actually don’t believe that. But politics is a strange thing, it is all about pressure, it takes a very remarkable individual to go against the main flow of opinion, very few have ever managed it, even with a support group around them. Who is giving the lead and applying the pressure and who isn’t. At present the fossil fuel lobby are, and they have as yet not properly met up with a counterbalancing force in society, at least not one that reaches into parliament.
Unlike the current situation, the hugely successful antinuclear movement was able to reach into parliament and influence opinion amongst MPs effectively winning over Government Members Mike Minogue and Marilyn Waring, tilting the ballance of power in the house.
We follow much in the steps of the USA and the USA is already a plutocracy.
But the reality is that our politicians aren’t making the changes required by the facts and they’re not making the changes required by the population. So what is driving them to the policies that they do promote and implement if it’s not the two things that they should be making the decisions upon?
And don’t forget the attitudes and recommendations of the civil service bureaucracy and deep state, and how far corporate influences have got in there as well.
Transition towns are at least making a start, and without waiting for permission from the government to do so.
The Blueskin Energy project has resulted from that initiative, and I seem to recall they are intending to open source their project so that it can be duplicated around NZ.
Hi Molly I applaud and support the Transitions Towns initiative where I can. I see them akin to the heroic citizens of the International Brigade that volunteered and went off to confront fascism in Spain. But what we must take from this is that to really defeat international fascism on a global scale there had to be national government and wider society buy in.
I might also add that Transition Towns currently require a contribution of financial and other resources that a large part of the population simply don’t have, no doubt when the crisis hits these efforts will be rapidly scaled up, how successful this will be in protecting the majority of the population is anyone’s guess.
The report is entitled Pathways to ‘Deep Decarbonization’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-09/fix-the-climate-problem-easy-cut-u-s-emissions-to-1901-levels.html
This is where we come in. We are not one of the dozen large national emitters, but we could give them a lead and an example to point to.
The big polluters are all waiting on each other to make the first move.
What New Zealand does in 2015 could make or break these talks. There is still time for the main opposition parties to start campaigning for a blanket ban on Deep Sea Oil drilling and No New Coal Mines, in 2015.
Our new government could then go to these talks as a world leader and openly say that we have taken these iconic positions to show this country’s seriousness in fighting climate change.
This would truly see climate change become an election hot potato. The government would be left floundering, it is their weakest performing portfolio. On the issue of climate change they have no answers, they are in effect the emperor without clothes.
80% of the population are opposed to deep sea oil drilling,
As Gareth Hughes of the Greens has said, “If we really want to beat Deep Sea Oil Drilling we have to fight it on climate change grounds.”
60% want the government to do more on climate change.
This is a large constituency just waiting to be tapped.
From the report:
New Zealand could be that egg from which global action could hatch.
…
nationalNationalgovernmentParty buy in. FIFY.Same goes for child poverty, and every other issue under the sun. The Right is lost in belief and proud of it*. Either that or they’re intent on murder-suicide with the rest of us as the unwilling partners.
We would not be having this debate otherwise.
*I include Margaret Thatcher in this – her science-driven early (for a politician) recognition of the problem was dwarfed by the damage her dogma did.
that is very funny..and john oliver is very very good…
..i have built quite a tidy little john oliver archive..
..should you desire more..
http://whoar.co.nz/?s=john+oliver
..(i had that climate-one back on 13th may..)
if you polled the rightwing-jerks that inhabit most of our media..
..probably most of them are denialists..’the jury’s still out’ kinda people..
..and funny story..!..
..rich republicans overwhelmingly are denialists..
..the ‘rich idiots’..
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/07/climate-denial-wealth-rich-republicans
The Jackalman had a good post last week – including questioning of National Party Conference attendees regarding climate change.
Pretty much as you would expect, but the arrogance still shines through…
(So good to have him posting again coming up to the election)
Yeah, love those posts of his.
if they admit to climate change then they wont be able to get any more soap or elastic for their underpants.
not to mention the estates in the hamptons and the 10 car garages, international travel adnd esxpensive hotels and personal assistants (slaves).
it means the end of the “system”.
show me any politician will go against the material things of no practical use produced by industrialism and the tawdry dreams manufactured by the dream factories.
sorry folks but humanity is just going to have to ride this one out.
tough titty.
in the meantime the seas will be acidified and species extinction will severely curtail the ability to continue unlimited growth and expansion.
Won’t the Hamptons be under the ocean in a few years? Maybe the effects of global warming will wash out all the neo-liberals.
The media problem is more general than this. When an established fact is at odds with either a significant number of viewers’ opinions or at odds with elite opinion, the media won’t report the fact. They will inevitably slip into reporting what the polls say as a means of avoiding taking a position.
It’s strange: the institutions that we employ to inform us about the facts that we don’t have the time or resources to find out for ourselves end up reporting to us what our uninformed opinion of those facts is. It’s an endless loop of mutually reinforcing derp.
Sometimes they’ll even report a fact as a fact and in the next sentence slip into talking about public opinion as a way of discounting it.
My guess: it’s money.
Look up the “Kochtopus” to see how big money influences what we got told in the media. From funding friendly research, to publishing only the results that are ‘acceptable’, to owning the media channels and spin merchants. It’s a complete system of disinformation.
It’s a complete system of disinformation.
Yes it is. I keep wondering exactly where it’s Achilles Heel is. Nothing is invulnerable.
For how long did we imagine that the Iron Curtain was impregnable – then suddenly it was gone?
The Herald does it on a regular basis. Not sure the Koch’s reach that far.
A complete reform of the media is long overdue. Professional journalism plays an important role in a healthy society – metaphorically they are like the eyes and ears of the body of society.
No wonder we are deaf and blind to what is really going on.
Then i would add that a deep reform of academia to meet the needs of society needs to follow.
The system of global media story syndication, evisceration of counterbalancing local investigative journalism, and funding of right leaning think tanks which pump out a continuous series of credible looking ‘news worthy’ discussion points, is how it is done.
It’s nowhere near perfect of course. Look at how we are able to discuss what we are discussing now. But you will note their many legal and technological attempts to start squeezing down discourse and dissent over the internet.
Tom, are you suggesting the Herald is impervious to the commercial and political will globally focused on maintaining the status quo?
My usual gripe with ‘climate change’ which i will habitually mention here: depletion of affordable fossil fuels within 20 years is the main problem. It is going to lead to a chaotic and rapid decarbonisation of the global economy as well as a very limited ability to deal with the longer term effects of the climate change which is already inevitable.
We have this short time period within which to get NZs social, economic and infrastructure systems in place. If we do not use this remaining window of opportunity wisely, we will be making life for future generations of Kiwis much harder than it needs to be.
Will climate change become an election issue?
In 2012,
Despite Hurricane Sandy blowing right through their campaign and throwing their schedules into disarray, both Obama and Romney remained steadfast in giving the climate as little air time as possible.
And for the first time since 1984 climate change wasn’t mentioned in any of the presidential debates.
“End Climate Silence”
The studied silence around climate change in the US presidential election race, in 2012 mirrored the same studied silence on the climate change that was observed by all parties in the New Zealand elections the previous year.
And sadly in David Cunliffe’s recent inaugural 2014 election speech given at the Labour Party congress last week.
In the wake of the severe flooding and storms in the North that look to become a regular seasonal event.
Just like Obama and Romney in 2012, after Sandy, if he continues this studied silence David Cunliffe risks becoming isolated and embarrassed in his silence over climate change.
My hope is that in deliberately leaving any mention of climate change from his inaugural election speech, that David Cunliffe intends to give this subject the proper attention it deserves and has prepared a dedicated address on climate change that will set out what concrete measures the Labour Party intend to implement on coming into government.
(That any policy can make a difference now): This is, Lovelock says, a deluded fantasy. Most of the things we have been told to do might make us feel better, but they won’t make any difference. Global warming has passed the tipping point, and catastrophe is unstoppable.
“It’s just too late for it,” he says. “Perhaps if we’d gone along routes like that in 1967, it might have helped. But we don’t have time. All these standard green things, like sustainable development, I think these are just words that mean nothing. I get an awful lot of people coming to me saying you can’t say that, because it gives us nothing to do. I say on the contrary, it gives us an immense amount to do. Just not the kinds of things you want to do.”
http://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange
We’ve already pumped enough CO2 into the atmosphere to precipitate catastrophe, talk of policy making a difference is delusional.The MSM keep up the pretence we still have control, the truth would cause mass dismay.
..@johnm..
..+1..
The only difference is that today we don’t anywhere seem to have the necessary gutsy determined political leadership ready to step up to give us that sense of purpose. Leaders who can’t be bought or intimidated or easily fooled. Leaders prepared to go out on a limb to shame the political quislings and cowards and name and denounce the open traitors,
With the self assurance and certainty of purpose to be able to rally the population,
With the sense to listen to the scientific advisors, and with the courage to be able to stand up in the face of the arrogant and powerful plutocrats determined to drive us deeper and further and faster down the road to disaster.
And time is running out
“on the contrary, it gives us an immense amount to do. Just not the kinds of things you want to do.”
That to me is the nub of the whole issue especially in our western middle class lives – we will do what we want and that is the way we roll – selfish, ignorant, delusional and greedy – fuck the planet, fuck the developing nations, fuck the poor, fuck the future generations, fuck everyone and everything that isn’t me – guess what human, mother nature doesn’t like that attitude. So for the many that are repelled by the attitudes expressed above – what are YOU doing to prepare, what part of the “immense amount to do” are you getting on with.
JMG posted two excellent essays/stories on exactly this:
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/refusing-call-tale-rewritten.html
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/the-time-of-seedbearers.html
A wry re-write of the Tolkein tales.
Yep he is seeing the future trajectory of humanity with clarity imo an essential read is JMG
+1
Exactly.
Your mission should you choose to accept it:
<
blockquote>….he started insisting to anyone who would listen that Middle-earth was doomed, that there was no hope left in elves or dying Númenor, that Sauron’s final victory would surely come before—oh, I forget what the date was; it was some year or other not too far from now. He spent hours reading through books of lore, making long lists of reasons why the Dark Lord’s triumph was surely at hand. Why did he do that? Why, for the same reason that drove him to each of his other excuses in turn: to prove to himself that his decision to refuse the quest hadn’t been the terrible mistake he knew perfectly well it had been.
Just read an excellent book edited by David Cromwell and Mark Levene “Surviving Climate Change” published by Pluto Press. This is the most comprehensive, honest and pragmatic collection of articles that I have read. The writers do not waste time trying to prove the obvious but get straight on to solutions, political and legal blockages to change, consequences.
Refugee flows are going to be one of the major issues as populations flee drought, competition for water and food, and wars. You can see John Key starting to get NZers used to the rhetoric of exclusion and prejudice in his reactions to refugees and boat people. He has possibly been briefed by American sources eg Schwarz and Randall report for the Pentagon.
The awful truth appears to be that American preparations for climate change are predominantly involved with preparing for control, exclusion and discipline of refugee populations through new “non lethal” weaponry. Steve Wright.s chapter on refugee flows and the Pentagon response is worse than the most outrageous conspiracy theories and science fiction.
Fortunately the rest of the book is less terrifying and deals with how to effect change. Seems we need to move off endlessly going over the same tired arguments. Is it isn’t it etc.
Corporate laws that insist on ever increasing profits are one of the major problems and this needs a political solution. Worth asking MPs at political Forums what their policy is on MIA treaty and TPPA, as these bind sovereign states into considering the profit motive above all other factors.
They also recommend local solutions and collective action as effective and psychologically healthy responses. New Zealand has many advantages as we are small and nimble and have the remnants of democracy which can be revived post election. This really is the do or die Election. We just have to change the Govt. to get started on positive action. We can be a positive model for the planet to follow.
+1
The rich and powerful don’t want us making decent labour laws either. But we don’t lay down and give up that fight.
+1
the whole raison d’etre of the media is to sell stuff to the masses with the false consciousness that posessing goods is the only road to happiness.
They are like the Spartans who wouldnt change their minds about their political system even as it crumbled around around them and could have been saved with the correct mental adjustments.
The media have only one goal and that is to exhaust the wealth of the world now before industrialism collpases.
Oh finally incontrovertible proof climate change is a hoax – the official denial from Murdoch
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/fight-climate-change-by-building-away-from-sea-rupert-murdoch-20140713-zt66s.html#ixzz37LlwBiw4
Actually, no, John Oliver’s critique is not “devastating”, because it is based on an obvious untruth. In setting up his mock debate, Mr. Oliver tries to represent that skeptics are a group of people who “deny” that ANY warming is occurring.
But he is not alone. For several years, many on the left have been trying to shut up the climate skeptics both by grossly misrepresenting their viewpoint AND by completely misrepresenting the results of consensus surveys as meaning (falsely) that 97% of climate scientists believe that man-made global warming will have CATASTROPHIC results, which then justify the urgency for the world’s industrial powers to make significant changes to their energy policies.
As for that 97% so-called consensus, this could also be critiqued based on both the logical fallacy of making scientific conclusions by consensus AND the fact anyone who looks into the details would see how it was based a clearly faulty premise which discarded most of the over 11,000 research papers for expressing no opinion, eliminated others based on the pollsters own subjective criteria, and based on their own limited, and dare I say, manipulated remaining sample (less than 100), drew conclusions based on opinions expressed only in those papers, and then reported the results as a percentage of that very small sample. Anyone with a basic understanding of statistical analysis should see the problem with this.
But putting that all aside, the authors of the consensus STILL did not specify the degree to which the warming was human caused (just some, nearly all, or somewhere in between), or whether the “97% thought the consequences of this warming would be mild, dire or could not yet be determined. Regardless of these glaring faults and omissions, advocates of the catastrophic view irresponsibly used this consensus as yet another weapon in their war on any opposing viewpoints.
Likewise, for years those holding the catastrophic view have falsely been portraying “deniers” as a group of people who deny the obvious – that the world has been warming since 1950, that CO2 in the air has been increasing, that the increased CO2 is at least part of the cause of this warming, and therefore that some of the warming we have experienced during that period is caused by human activities.
Naturally, the reason for both of these gross misrepresentations – regarding the viewpoints of skeptics and regarding the consensus survey results – is that the left wants to be able to claim that the “debate is over” and that the “science is settled”, so they can have American and other industrial powers move on to the next step of implementing dramatic changes to their energy policy.
However, the logical and practical next step is not to hastily move on to making major changes in energy policy, but rather to conduct a cost-benefit analysis that considers both the consequences of not making energy policy changes, along with what negative things might result from making those changes. And there is a good reason why the left wants to skip over this important step, because they know full well that limiting the use of fossil fuels, particularly in developing countries, would have serious, costly, and in many cases, fatal consequences for many people across the globe, and that once those facts come out, support for their agenda will wither away.
So no, this “optimistic” viewpoint is not something new. The acceptance of the basic premise of warming and human contributions has been there for many years, and I would be happy to provide multiple links to show that this is the case. However, those favoring the “catastrophic” (or, as it were, “pessimistic”) viewpoint have been constantly distorting this for years, as they would much prefer to engage in a one-sided demagogue than in a debate that they know they would lose.
And ironically, the only way industrial powers would ever be convinced to make the dramatic and global changes needed to have any serious effect on atmospheric CO2 and on climate would be if we actually have the debate I suggest and if, to my surprise, those holding the catastrophic view can put forth convincing data which shows that they are correct, and that therefore the costs and associated risks of making these sweeping energy policy changes is justified. So the irony is that the very debate that is needed in order to realistically bring about these changes is being suppressed by the side that believes that the changes or urgently needed.
Ok so you are simply lying. Lets be charitable and say that is simply because you are too ignorant to know how people doing science think. They are the “skeptics”. To be quite frank the “deniers” that I meet in discussion boards would have to be regarded as being simple minded amateurs compared to working scientists. They are trained to disbelieve their own ideas and test the multiple alternative hypothesis for validity. Because if they don’t then some other science prick will make a name out of disproving their ideas.
In 1978-1981 when I went to university to do a Earth Sciences degree we were aware as students of the anthropomorphic climate change theory. In terms of the physics, it was clearly correct that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would cause greenhouse effects. It was easy to show that in the lab. It was also clear then from isotopic analysis that the most of the decade on decade culmative changes in additional CO2 in the atmosphere were from fossil carbon fuels, again easy to show in the lab.
My geochemistry texts had sections on the analysis based on papers going back to the 1950s, just as they did on meteorites and everything else. That was the “consensus” then. It is something that is obvious to anyone who spent time understanding the basic science. Something you clearly have put no effort into attempting to do.
About the only thing that wasn’t understood was why we weren’t seeing the expected effects as fast as the “pure” physics suggested should happen. But of course they weren’t manifesting themselves on a daisyworld. A real world with lots of volatiles around isn’t even remotely as simple. Almost all of the work done since then to establish the more recent “consensus” you’re referring to happened a lot later.
That became obvious over the following decade as they extended the temperature measurements outside of the dust polluted skies of Europe and the US via ground stations and satellite IR. Then the oceans chemistry, temperatures, volumes, and speed of movement had to be at least partially established. Ice melt were factored in. Every thing had to be measured ever more precisely, widely, and continuously. It has been quite apparent since the early to mid-90’s to anyone with any significiant knowledge of earth sciences what the broad outlines were. Humans were causing climate change well above and directly opposite the underlying trends. Everything else after that was merely refining the models with updated observational data and getting better at predicting the interfaces between climate and decadal weather.
These days, I don’t know of a reputable working scientist (ie one with their beliefs not paid for by oil, gas and coal (usually by the Heartland Foundation)) in the earth sciences areas who doesn’t think that the effects are likely to be catastrophic for our type of civilisation over the next few centuries. The only real questions are how fast it is likely to arrive at the point of causing serious damage, how much adaption time there will be, and how long it will take to adapt. Those are the risks requiring assessment. I notice that you don’t address any of them preferring instead (like so many of the other whining deniers that I see here) to avoid looking squarely at the issues you purport to raise.
Waste more time? Oh yay! Another munter from oil, coal and gas wanting to waste more time so they can realize their reserves. That analysis of your conduct seems like a good working hypothesis to me, bearing in mind the number of these kinds of arseholes I have seen over the years. To prove you are not, then I have a question for you at the end…
But we already know the basic conservative and almost certain risk levels of climate change over the next century. Those are the ones that the IPCC puts out. Book one gives the most conservative estimates of climate change by a combined voice of a lot of knowledgeable scientists working in the areas around climate change. That is the current conservative consensus. They only take high probability and proven results to put into the models to give the range of outcomes shown.
Of course the sequential reports keep getting worse as evidence is found of reinforcements the tilt to climate shifts, evidence of the buffering of oceans and ice sheets reaching its limits, and the very limited countervailing effects of things like additional cloud cover. AR5 showed a much higher risk than AR4 as more information entered the high probability range and gets incorporated.
And the reports for AR6 is going to be a lot worse because now there is some solid evidence this year about the WAIS instability has been long speculated on, but never had a high enough probability to get into the IPCC models.
But the only way to get the type of “convincing” of proof that you seem to be demanding is to let it happen and then examine the consequences in the aftermath. Of course this could result in some megadeaths and I’m sure that the surviving people of Bangladesh, Holland, Florida, Louisiana, South East England, and many other places won’t want you strung up by your balls if you just happen to be wrong about how fast water will rise – yeah right!.
The issue really is risk management where there is incomplete data. This isn’t a completely untapped area of analysis. Insurance companies, stockmarket traders, and politicians do it all of the time. So do scientists. For that matter, even people in households looking at how much they have to hold in liquid savings for emergencies do it – they assess their risks with distinctly imperfect information.
This is no different to trying to analyze the effect of putting cobalt casings on to H-Bombs (in what I perceive is your scenario we should have dropped the damn things to see if the “On The Beach” scenario was feasible), continually adding more fluorocarbons to the atmosphere (we should have seen if we really could fry peoples eyes by removing more ozone), persisting in dropping heavy metals into rivers and harbours in industrial quantities (those lovely cancer and miscarriage clusters not withstanding), or even looking at social policies (free education won’t increase literacy because the peasants are too stupid to read), etc etc. All of the conservative myths of the past that said because something hadn’t happened before in the lifetime of the bozo saying it, that it couldn’t happen and ignoring known risk levels.
If you can suggest a experiment that emulates the whole world, then even then it isn’t “proof”, and in any case a dipshit like yourself won’t accept it as being “valid”. There are no frigging certainties in science except if you carefully measure them throughout the actual object undergoing whatever effect you are testing for. Even then it is subject to questions about retroactive instrumentation and observational effects and a need to repeat the experiment several times.
Unfortunately we actually live on this world, and many of us don’t like the experiment going on now. Quite simply we already have a conservative assessed risk that is making insurance companies routinely building changed weather patterns into their policies.
To me, you sound like a complete paid for fuckwit without an ability to think. But hey, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Lets run an experiment on you to see what type of “denier” you are. Following your argument, lets look at what would allow you to be satisfied about the various parts of the probability risk matrix (I did an MBA as well). A typical denier will do almost anything else apart from trying to define what it would take to convince them that their belief is in fact incorrect.
I’ve tried asking them to provide links to papers, and then never heard back from them after I use their own links to show that they hadn’t read the farking things or they hadn’t looked for critiques (in other words they’d pulled them off some denier site without reading them themselves).
The best way I’ve found of elucidating what type of person I’m dealing with is to ask them to define their own parameters of skepticism.
SO
Tell me explicitly what you would regard as “convincing data” and then tell me how long that data would take to collect.
OR
Tell me explicitly what you would regard as data required to disprove anthropogenic CO2 induced climate change and then tell me how long that data would take to collect.
OR
Tell me (from the other side) what the certainty is of developing the mitigation and adaption technologies in time to deal with the worst case IPCC AR5 case. Because in the event that you are the fool and are quite wrong, the the other side of the risk equation will be to make sure that the technology required is available.
My bet is that
1. You cannot do any of the above because you have about as much scientific knowledge in this area as the hamster that your accounting prose above indicates. So your response will be on the effective order of “let god decide” and other such chiliastic nonsense. Quite simply you probably wouldn’t be prepared to take the time and study that answering that question will require. In which case you have a lot in common with the leaders of the “industrial powers”. Like them you rely instead on believing in people and/or gods. Rather than believing in the people who actually study the subject I suspect you believe in the dumb munters who make you or your investments feel safe rather than facing reality.
2. That your assessment in the first two will effectively say to wait for another 20-30 years without any changes based on probable risks and let the carbon mining continue in the meantime, while we find out for “certain”. In the latter one you will ignore the history of technology development and assume that an engineered and distributable solution can be reached and testing within a few years despite all of the evidence of the last 50 years of large scale developments that it cannot.
3. Meanwhile you will oppose taking any precautions against the known risks of developing new technologies (look at the history of nuclear fusion) or abating the severity of the risks of climatic shifts by abating greenhouse gas pollution. In other words oppose any gradualistic approach to abate possible risks.
4. Now queue the usual disappearance or the whining about how I am so mean to dumb hamsters and keep calling them names.
I have seen so many of these dumb arse whiners and time wasting shills sprouting the latest spin from the Heartland Foundation and its oil and coal funded clones that I’m getting more than a wee bit sick and tired of them.
Yes, the planet got destroyed…