web analytics

Juking the stats?

Written By: - Date published: 11:50 am, April 3rd, 2012 - 18 comments
Categories: crime, police - Tags:

The recorded crime rate has been dropping for two decades now mostly due to changing demographics. More good news this year with a 4.8% drop, mostly attributable to a 21% fall in Canterbury. But something’s a little off in these numbers. The number of offences recorded has fallen, yet the percentage solved has fallen even more. Shouldn’t less crime mean more resources to solve the ones that do happen?

For the past 20 years, the number of recorded offences has bounced around between 400,000 and 450,000 – the rate trending down as the population grows.

With police resources growing and the crime rate falling, a higher proportion of crimes were resolved, rising from 38% in 1994 to 48% in 2009.

But something strange happened in the last two years – recorded crime drop about 10% but the number of resolved crimes fell by 12%.

What’s going on here? Why is a drop in the number of offences tied with a proportionally larger fall in resolutions when we would expect fewer crimes mean more of the crimes that do happen get solved?

Well, a quarter of crimes are in categories that are only really detected by police action – drugs offences, weapons offences, environmental pollution, and administrative offences.

Because no crime gets recorded most of the time unless it’s due to an arrest these offences have very high resolution rates – unlike burglaries, for instance, drug offences don’t tend to get reported by the public but, rather, detected by police action.

It’s very simple to cut the number of recorded drug or weapons offences – stop doing raids on gangs and drug dealers. Likewise, move resources away from administrative offences and, ta da, the number recorded falls. Despite making up 24% of recorded offences in 2009, these classes of offence accounted for a disproportionate 42% of the fall in recorded crimes over the next two years.

Did the number of these crimes really fall or did the police stop looking?

The other out-size fall in crime numbers is in Canterbury with recorded thefts, robberies, burglaries, property damage, public order and fraud offences down 9,250 in the past two years. Just those offence classes in only Canterbury account for 20% of the nationwide fall. Well, I would submit that there are thousands of deserted houses and areas nearly devoid of residents in Christchurch – plenty to steal and places to do your dirt out of the eye of neighbours and PC Plod. Or maybe all the crims joined the exodus from the garden city to Australia.

Just as police devoting fewer resources to certain types of crime would cause recorded offence and resolution numbers to drop regardless of what was happening in the real world, so criminal activity moving out of sight in Christchurch would decrease recorded offenses.

I think that crime rates is trending down due to the falling proportion of young men in society but the explanation for the sudden drop in both recorded crimes and solved crimes in the past two years might not be good news.

18 comments on “Juking the stats? ”

  1. ghostwhowalksnz 1

    A falling proportion of young men in society ? You would need a fall in total numbers of young men to account for a fall in numbers of crimes. These figures are not crime rates, but actual numbers of crimes.

    You would expect the lower numbers in Christchurch to rise fairly soon and quickly. But I have a suspicion the police will massage the numbers like they do in New York City- where a reported armed robbery becomes a ‘lost property’ offence.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/nyregion/officer-sues-claiming-police-retaliation-for-truth-telling.html?ref=newyorkcitypolicedepartment

  2. muzza 2

    NZ – “Perceived” , least corrupt country in the world!

  3. Rob 3

    Whatever Muzza, you obviously have never conducted business anywhere else in the world.

    • muzza 3.1

      Cool Rob – Big pile of garbage, slightly smaller pile of garbage…

      Whatever makes you sleep better at night champ!

  4. Descendant Of Smith 4

    Is it also possible that the change in offenses charged that I mentioned yesterday would have an effect in both results.

    If a six cheque fraud case is now a one fraud case instead of six would there not be both 5 cases less reported and 5 cases less solved.

  5. Balanced View 5

    This article is laughable. Are you really going to try to find a negative spin out of reduced crime rates?

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      Hey “Balanced” how come the rate of crime resolution by the cops is dropping rapidly? Aren’t you interested or concerned about this?

      • Balanced View 5.1.1

        Not ideal is it, but surely the better stat is that there is less crime to begin with? Or would you be happy with higher crime rates but exceptional resolution?
        Despite the assertions in the article, if you have a look at the breakdowns, almost every major category of crime has reduced. Let’s drop the political flags we hold for once and feel proud the New Zealand is becoming a safer place to live!

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

          Balanced view = zero logic

          Here’s a clue dude: you can have lower crime rates AND improved resolution!!! Just don’t limit yourself to stupidity and it can happen.

          • Balanced View 5.1.1.1.1

            True. Let’s hope they can do it! But doesn’t it feel good to see some positive news for once?

            • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1.1.1

              I see – ignore the stats which don’t suit you, and feign complete disinterest in what is happening there.

              While cheerleading the stats which do happen to suit.

              Wow another dumbass narrow vision National cadet.

    • felix 5.2

      This article is about reduced resolution rates.

      Surely you’re not trying to spin that as a positive, are you?

      • Balanced View 5.2.1

        So long as crime is reducing, I don’t really care if resolution decreases. Prevention is the best form of resolution.

        • Colonial Viper 5.2.1.1

          lololol

          Sucks to be a victim of crime then: “Balanced View’ “doesn’t really care” if the perps who did wrong against you are caught or not.

          What a tool

        • Balanced View 5.2.1.2

          I can see how you draw that conclusion – even though I am a tool.
          But on a broader perspective, of the two stats, if they don’t both improve, I would select the one that is improving every single time!

          • Colonial Viper 5.2.1.2.1

            But on a broader perspective, of the two stats, if they don’t both improve, I would select the one that is improving every single time!

            I know you would, because you’ve already stated that you don’t care if victims of crime have their crimes resolved or not!!! Tool.

  6. tracey 6

    If the earthquake is responsible for the economy then it must also be responsible for the 22% drop in crime in CHCHCH. This government surely can’t have it both ways?

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Social cohesion programme to address incitement of hatred and discrimination
    The Government is launching a significant programme of work to strengthen social cohesion in New Zealand and create a safer, more inclusive society. The work is part of the wider response to recommendations from the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terrorist attack on Christchurch masjidain (mosques), and builds on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Pause on Quarantine Free Travel from New South Wales extended
    The pause on Quarantine Free Travel from New South Wales to New Zealand will continue for a further 12 days, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says.  There are now 36 recent community cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales – including four not yet linked to the existing outbreak that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Speech to the ASEAN-New Zealand Business Council
    ASEAN-New Zealand Business Council, Auckland  Ladies and Gentlemen, Distinguished Guests, Kia ora koutou katoa Thank you Kenneth for your kind introduction, and for the opportunity to speak this evening. Business councils make an important contribution to fostering trade and connections, and in providing practical advice to governments.  I want to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Address to the INZBC 7th International Summit 2021
    Day 2, India New Zealand Business Council 7th International Summit, Auckland (speech delivered virtually) Tēnā koutou katoa, Namaste, Sat sri akal, Assalamualaikum  Good morning and good evening to you all, Thank you for this opportunity to be with you virtually today. The India New Zealand Business Council has put together ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Government commits $4 million additional support for flood-affected Canterbury farmers
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today announced the Government is injecting a further $4 million into relief funding to support flood-affected Canterbury farmers who are recovering from the damage of a historic one in 200 year flood. An additional $100,000 will also be provided to the Mayoral Relief Fund to support ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Appointment of Queen’s Counsel
    Attorney-General David Parker today announced the appointments of 10 Queen’s Counsel.   The newly appointed Silks are:   Auckland – Lynda Kearns, Stephen McCarthy, Ronald Mansfield, Alan (Fletcher) Pilditch, Davey Salmon, Laura O’Gorman  Wellington – Greg Arthur, Michael Colson, Victoria Heine  Christchurch – Kerryn Beaton   “The criteria for appointment recognise that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates victorious Black Caps
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated Kane Williamson and the Black Caps for their victory over India in the final of the inaugural Cricket World Test Championship. “The Black Caps have made New Zealand proud. This was a masterful performance from a team at the top of their game and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Further action to tackle cervical cancer
    Parliament has taken another step to help reduce the number of women who develop cervical cancer, with the Health (National Cervical Screening Programme) Amendment Bill passing its third reading. “I am very pleased by the robust consideration this Bill has received. It will ensure technology allows healthcare providers to directly ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • $500 million seized from gangs and criminals
    A significant Government milestone has been reached with $500 million in cash and assets seized from gangs and criminals by Police over the past four years, Police Minister Poto Williams announced today. “During our last term in office, this target was set for 2021 with Police as part of our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Congratulations to the Black Caps – World Champions
    Minister of Sport and Recreation Grant Robertson has congratulated the Black Caps as the deserved winners of the inaugural World Test Cricket Championship. “The Black Caps have pulled off a remarkable and deserved win in the World Test Championship final against India.  The final is the culmination of two years ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Alert Level 2 in Wellington, Wairarapa and Kāpiti Coast
    Alert Level 2 measures are now in place for Wellington, Wairarapa and Kāpiti Coast to the north of Ōtaki, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. These measures are precautionary, following the potential exposure of New Zealanders to a COVID-19 case from Sydney. The person visited a range of locations in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Speech to the India New Zealand Business Council Summit
    5pm, Wednesday 23 June 2021 [CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY] Tuia te Rangi e tū nei Tuia te Papa e takoto nei Tuia te here tangata Ka rongo te pō, ka rongo te Ao Tihei Mauri Ora   Introduction Namaskar, tēnā koe and good evening. Thank you for your kind invitation to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Financial support for caregivers widened
    Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis has welcomed changes that will make it easier for caregivers looking after children outside of the state care system to access much-needed financial assistance. The Social Security (Financial Assistance for Caregivers) Amendment Bill will also allow these caregivers to access further benefits previously unavailable to them. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Agencies to have powers to secure maritime domain
    A Bill introduced to Parliament today aims to prevent serious criminal offending at sea, including transnational offending and organised crime, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced. “Aotearoa New Zealand will be better placed to keep our maritime environment secure against threats like drugs trafficking, wildlife trafficking and human trafficking with the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Critical support for New Zealand’s budding researchers
    Fellowships to attract and retain talented researchers in the early stages of their career, have been awarded to 30 New Zealanders, Associate Research, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “I am pleased to congratulate these researchers, who will be receiving funding through the MBIE Science Whitinga Fellowship. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Bill to stop taxpayers having to fund oil field decommissions
    The Government is preventing taxpayers picking up the bill for the decommissioning of oil fields, says Energy and Resource Minister Dr Megan Woods.  “After the Crown had to take responsibility for decommissioning the Tui oil field, it became clear to me that the current requirements around decommissioning are inadequate and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Quarantine Free Travel from New South Wales to New Zealand to pause
    New Zealand’s Quarantine Free Travel from New South Wales to New Zealand will be paused while the source of infection of new cases announced in Sydney is investigated, says COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins. There are 10 new community cases of COVID-19 today in New South Wales, taking the Australian ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Milestone reached for Iwi Affiliation Population Counts
    Iwi affiliation data released today provides updated population counts for all iwi and addresses gaps in Māori data originating from the 2018 Census, says Associate Minister of Statistics Meka Whaitiri. “The release of the 2018 Iwi Affiliation Estimated Counts is a really important step, and I acknowledge the hard work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Ngāti Rangitihi Claims Settlement Bill passes first reading
    Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Minister Andrew Little welcomed Ngāti Rangitihi to Parliament today to witness the first reading of The Ngāti Rangitihi Claims Settlement Bill. “I know it took a lot of hard work, time and patience by all parties involved to reach this significant milestone. I am honoured to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Sustainable Healthcare and Climate Health Conference Aotearoa
    Mihi Tēnā tātou katoa Kei ngā pou o te whare hauora ki Aotearoa, kei te mihi. Tēnā koutou i tā koutou pōwhiri mai i ahau. E mihi ana ki ngā taura tangata e hono ana i a tātou katoa, ko te kaupapa o te rā tērā. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Infrastructure Acceleration Fund opening for business
    Criteria to access at least $1 billion of the $3.8 billion Housing Acceleration Fund (HAF), announced in March, is now available, and an invitation for expressions of interest will be released on 30 June, Housing Minister Megan Woods has announced.  “This is a key milestone in our plan to accelerate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Bringing back the health of Hauraki Gulf
    New marine protection areas and restrictions on fishing are among a raft of changes being put in place to protect the Hauraki Gulf for future generations. The new strategy, Revitalising the Gulf – Government action on the Sea Change Plan, released today, draws on input from mana whenua, local communities, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to AI Forum – Autonomous Weapons Systems
    AI Forum New Zealand, Auckland Good evening and thank you so much for joining me this evening. I’d like to start with a thank you to the AI Forum Executive for getting this event off the ground and for all their work and support to date. The prospect of autonomous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand boosts support to Fiji for COVID-19 impact
    Aotearoa New Zealand is providing additional support to Fiji to mitigate the effects of the current COVID-19 outbreak on vulnerable households, Foreign Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “Recognising the increasingly challenging situation in Fiji, Aotearoa will provide an additional package of assistance to support the Government of Fiji and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Round 2 of successful energy education fund now open
    $1.65 million available in Support for Energy Education in Communities funding round two Insights from SEEC to inform future energy hardship programmes Community organisations that can deliver energy education to households in need are being invited to apply for the second funding round of the Support for Energy Education in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Ngarimu scholarships to target vocational training
    Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis today announced three new scholarships for students in vocational education and training (VET) are to be added to the suite of prestigious Ngarimu scholarships. “VET learners have less access to study support than university students and this is a way to tautoko their learning dreams ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Recognising the volunteers who support our health system
    Nominations have opened today for the 2021 Minister of Health Volunteer Awards, as part of National Volunteer Week. “We know that New Zealanders donate at least 159 million hours of volunteer labour every year,” Minister of Health Andrew Little said in launching this year’s awards in Wellington. “These people play ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Drug Free Sport supported to deal with new doping challenges
    Drug Free Sport New Zealand will receive a funding boost to respond to some of the emerging doping challenges across international sport. The additional $4.3 million over three years comes from the Sport Recovery Fund announced last year. It will help DFSNZ improve athletes’ understanding of the risks of doping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government support for South Auckland community hit by tornado
    The Government is contributing $100,000 to a Mayoral Relief Fund to support Auckland communities impacted by the Papatoetoe tornado, Acting Minister for Emergency Management Kris Faafoi says. “My heart goes out to the family and friends who have lost a loved one, and to those who have been injured. I ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating World Refugee Day
    World Refugee Day today is an opportunity to celebrate the proud record New Zealanders have supporting and protecting refugees and acknowledge the contribution these new New Zealanders make to our country, the Minister of Immigration Kris Faafoi said. “World Refugee Day is also a chance to think about the journey ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Face to face meeting delivers significant progress on NZ-UK FTA
    New Zealand and the UK have committed to accelerating their free trade agreement negotiations with the aim of reaching an agreement in principle this August, Trade Minister Damien O’Connor announced. “We’ve held constructive and productive discussions towards the conclusion of a high-quality and comprehensive FTA that will support sustainable and inclusive trade, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government taking action to protect albatross
    New population figures for the critically endangered Antipodean albatross showing a 5 percent decline per year highlights the importance of reducing all threats to these very special birds, Acting Minister of Conservation Dr Ayesha Verrall says. The latest population modelling, carried out by Dragonfly Data Science, shows the Antipodean albatross ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Adoption laws under review
    New Zealand’s 66-year-old adoption laws are being reviewed, with public engagement beginning today.  Justice Minister Kris Faafoi said the Government is seeking views on options for change to our adoption laws and system. “The Adoption Act has remained largely the same since 1955. We need our adoption laws to reflect ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Wider roll-out of cameras on boats to support sustainability and protect marine life
    Up to 300 inshore commercial fishing vessels will be fitted with on-board cameras by 2024 as part of the Government’s commitment to protect the natural marine environment for future generations.  Minister for Oceans and Fisheries David Parker today announced the funding is now in place for the wider roll out ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Plan for vaccine rollout for general population announced
    New Zealanders over 60 will be offered a vaccination from July 28 and those over 55 from August 11, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. The rollout of the vaccine to the general population will be done in age groups as is the approach commonly used overseas, with those over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand introduces Belarus travel bans
    New Zealand has imposed travel bans on selected individuals associated with the Lukashenko regime, following ongoing concerns about election fraud and human rights abuses after the 2020 Belarus elections, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta has announced. The ban covers more than fifty individuals, including the President and key members of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ economy grows driven by households, construction and business investment
    The Government’s efforts to secure the recovery have been reflected in the robust rebound of GDP figures released today which show the economy remains resilient despite the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Grant Robertson said. GDP increased 1.6 percent in the first three months of 2021. The Treasury had ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Milestone 250th tower continues to improve rural connectivity
    The Government has welcomed the completion of the 250th 4G mobile tower, as part of its push for better rural connectivity. Waikato’s Wiltsdown, which is roughly 80 kilometres south of Hamilton, is home to the new tower, deployed by the Rural Connectivity Group to enable improved service to 70 homes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Quarantine Free Travel pause with Victoria to lift on Tuesday
    Following a further public health assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak in greater Melbourne, New Zealand’s Quarantine Free Travel pause with Victoria has been extended to 11.59pm on Tuesday 22 June, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. It has been determined that the risk to public health in New Zealand continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister mourns passing of Dr Sir Ian Hassall
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is mourning the passing of Dr Sir Ian Hassall, New Zealand’s first Children’s Commissioner and lifelong champion for children and children’s health. As a paediatrician Sir Ian contributed to a major world-first cot death study that has been directly credited with reducing cot deaths in New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago