Key calls snap Election for June 4

Written By: - Date published: 1:55 pm, May 3rd, 2011 - 29 comments
Categories: election 2011, john key, polls - Tags:

Now if the sight of that headline made you feel a bit sick for a moment, you might want to ask yourself ‘How well prepared would my party be if Key called a snap election?’ The reason it might pay to ask is that it’s not outside the realms of possibility that Key could manufacture crises in the coalition arrangements with either the Maori Party or the ACT Party, in order to justify going to the polls early.

It’d be a wise move for Key and, I suspect, a disaster for the Opposition parties.

29 comments on “Key calls snap Election for June 4”

  1. I’ll just quickly point out that Labour has their list sorted, and almost all their electorate candidates in place. They even have a current campaign just started (even if currently only the ODT will cover it – election time media would be obliged to). National have none of that. I don’t think JK’s own party would be happy with that call. And as for ACT who are in current disarray…

  2. chris 2

    The lefts current election stratergies:
    Plan A/ attack the Nats. Plan b/ attack the Nats. Plan C/ umm.. there isn’t one.

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Attacking ACT is a good proxy way to attack the NATs.

      A vote for Assassin John is a vote for Hatchet Don.

    • Lanthanide 2.2

      How does this differ from anything that “the right” did in the 2002, 2005 or 2008 elections?

      • Monty 2.2.1

        2002 was a completely forgettable election for National.
        in 2005 there was Don Brash who took support from 22.8% to about 40% and damn near won the election on the back of a policy platform of tax cuts, Orewa 1. I remember Labour attacked Brash like no tomorrow. The got personal, (cancerous and corrosive) and nasty.
        in 2008 it was again Labour who attacked National and in particular John Key (Remember mike’s failed mission) while Key ignored Labour and presented his policy.

        So who is the negative party again???

        • r0b

          So who is the negative party again???

          Oh – I know this one! It was the party that spent a whole campaign running racially divisive Iwi/Kiwi billboards, and had their muppets running billboards comparing government politicians to brutal dictators. That was the one. What did I win?

        • Colonial Viper

          Hey Monty, whatever it takes to win.

          The Left learnt this from the Right’s very own playbook.

          Don’t cry about it now, will ya.

        • mickysavage

          Another CT line “Oooooh Labour is so negative”

          A question Monty. Which highly placed National Campaign manager said this about the book “Going Dirty : The Art of Negative Campaigning”

          A compelling, well written guide to negative campaigning. It provides some strong underpinning theories to negative campaigning from an accute (sic) observer of campaign methodology. Very useful and well worth purchasing.”

          Me doth think you protesteth too much …

    • Um you should check this out.  Looks like a campaign to me.

  3. Colonial Viper 3

    Key resorting to panicking, showing his loss of faith in both his coalition partners and the All Blacks ability to win the RWC all in one go?

    Plus giving credibility that Mana is a real threat to his Mp partners, and throwing the ACT machinery even more off balance.

    Would make for a very interesting month in politics.

    PS Key wants to maximise his time smiling and waving as PM as he will not be allowed to stay on until the end of the next term, so he’s not gonna do it 🙂

  4. r0b 4

    Curse you Sprout – you did give me a moment!

    • lprent 4.1

      Same here. Hey Sprout – I guess you aren’t active in a party for this election yet. Can I suggest the Mana party – they need an experienced hand with a lot of time on their hands.


      • joe90 4.1.1

        Gave me a wee flutter too when I saw it in the comments side bar .

      • the sprout 4.1.2

        😆 glad you got a cheap fright

        not sure i qualify on either of those grounds lynn, but i would rather help Mana than NZF
        in reality i’ll probably end up helping you on the day 😉

        • lprent

          Well it was even more of a fright than you’d expect. June 4th is my birthday. There was a good probability that I’d have remembered the damn thing this year.

  5. The Voice of Reason 5

    It wouldn’t be a disaster for the opposition, I suspect. Unless Key had a damn good reason to go to the polls, he would get hammered. A while ago, I looked up the results of snap elections in Oz, Canada and here just to see what happens and it turns out that the voters do not like spurious early polls one little bit. If I get the chance tonight, I’ll look up the results again and post them here, but the upshot is that the sitting Government loses seats in just about every case.

    The most notorious result round these parts was the 1983 ‘Drover’s Dog’ election in Oz where Malcolm Fraser went early against the Bill Hayden led Labor Party, only to find out that while he was at the GG’s place in Canberra making the arrangements, Bob Hawke had rolled Hayden. Hawke bolted in, though a miffed Hayden suggested that a drover’s dog would have knocked off the tarnished Fraser anyway.

    Still, great headline! Got my pulse racing for a moment or two …

    • Moreover, an early election would doom Supplementary Member’s chances of winning the referendum on the voting system. It finished last in 1992 and no-one has yet heard of it.

  6. Adrian 6

    Hmmmm. Does the Sammy Wong investigators name names on June 6?

  7. chris 7

    I am assuming that a strong and decisive Goff will come out assertively after the budget with some clear election strategies that will 1/ stimulate the economy [without borrowing ] 2/ create jobs and 3/ see social justice and equality for all – am I assuming incorrectly?

  8. JaJ 8

    Um, manufacturing a crisis with coalition partners would just hurt nationals future chances of being able to form a coalition government!

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      Yeah it would, unless they were in on the “ACT” from the beginning.

  9. Thomas Forrow 9

    The Greens are ready .. bring it on 🙂

  10. indiana 10

    “Key could manufacture crises”

    I’m intrigued…should we consider “right wing” political parties competentent that they need to “manufacture crises” to ensure they win or “left wing” parties incompetent that they allow “unmanufactured” crises, e.g. Darren Hughs, Taito Phillip Field etc to erode any chance winning?

  11. Samuel Hill 11

    I think the recent activity of the ACT Party is an absolute disgrace. The only reason ACT are in parliament is because Rodney Hide won the seat of Epsom, and now Don Brash has taken over the leadership of the party, and Hide is being forced out of the party.

    If Hide had any guts he would resign from parliament.

    But lets consider this case.

    What happens if Rodney Hide decides to leave parliament and cause a by-election. What happens if ACT lose? Would ACT be removed from parliament?

    Would John Key HAVE HIS REASON to call an early election if Rodney Hide resigned?

    I’d love somebody with more knowledge than me on the subject to enlighten me.

    I am afraid that this is all a ploy for National to stand John Banks in Epsom, win the seat and eliminate ACT. This will secure the right wing vote for National and mean that they can push further to the right without deterring too many central voters.

    Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton currently sit in parliament having each won less than 1% of the total Party Vote. NZ First won over 4% of the vote at the last election, and are unrepresented in parliament! Don Brash-led policy initiatives are being created, to be forced into law through parliament via four puppet MPs who are only in parliament due to Rodney Hide winning Epsom!!!


    • Lanthanide 11.1

      “What happens if Rodney Hide decides to leave parliament and cause a by-election. What happens if ACT lose? Would ACT be removed from parliament?”

      No. List positions are finalised based on the election night result. Electorate seats can change any which way after that, but the straight number of parliamentary members from list seats remains unchanged. So if Rodney resigned and National won the seat, Act would still be entitled to 5 list members (per their share of the party vote). The fact that they got 3.65% and needed the electorate to enter parliament in the first place doesn’t matter after they’re actually in parliament.

    • Colonial Viper 11.2

      Look, if you can’t win an electorate seat you can’t have an MP if you are under 5%. You know how it works; in NZ democracy electorate seats have always held a special significance.

      As La and others have pointed out, the number of seats a party gets is allocated based on the results of election night and they are final until the next election. The only thing which can alter that result is an electorate seat by-election, and even then its only for that single seat.

      Not much use screaming about it now, although I agree it is somewhat unjust. So what are NZ First’s electoral reform policies?

      • Samuel Hill 11.2.1

        Yeah I know how it works, and its bullshit. If Hide resigns my belief is their should be a by-election, and if ACT don’t win then all their seats should be taken and redistributed. I don’t see why we can have it both ways.

        • Colonial Viper

          The only answer there is that is not what our electoral law says happens, and its not a good idea to go changing electoral law on the fly because a lot of changes could easily make things worse not better.

  12. randal 12

    do you get a list seat if you set up a hovercraft factory in waikikamukau?

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