John Key’s election as chair of the International Democratic Union, decided at its Leaders’ meeting in Seoul this week, is a significant event, not just a compliment. Key succeeds John Howard, who has led this organisation of 80 right-wing parties for the past 12 years. Key’s acceptance signals that like Howard he sees his future career in global politics, and also like four-time winner Howard Key plans a long career as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
The International Democratic Union is a much more effective organisation than its left equivalent, the Socialist International. While the Socialists focus on passing high-flown resolutions the IDU shares up-to-date campaign ideas, and the difference shows up in the results across the English-speaking world. Key’s electoral success has made him the darling of the IDU – Daniel Hannan an English Conservative MP who came to the IDU meeting in New Zealand in 2012 described him as his “new Anglosphere hero.”
Hopefully this news will provide an additional wake-up call, if any were needed, for the Labour Party’s review of its election organisation and party structure. Labour has tended to benchmark itself against its own mythology – turning out the missing millions – rather than its opposition. National and other parties of the right do not make that mistake – while a crucial innovation for Labour in 2005 increased turnout then, in the last election it likely all went to National.
In their polling, communications, opposition research and discipline the IDU parties are well ahead – much better resourced and much more effective. And the international connections are close, at the leader level and elsewhere. The IDU’s Treasurer is billionaire Lord Ashcroft, now a polling guru and blog and part-owner of the ConservativeHome blog. He flew out in his private jet to see Key before the 2008 and 2011 elections and is well known to David Farrar, Key’s regular and frequent pollster. Mark Textor is still advising National on communication strategy, and his partner Lynton Crosby is managing David Cameron’s campaign in the upcoming UK election.
Labour has quite a mountain to climb to regain government. Steven Joyce’s review after National’s disastrous defeat in 2002 focussed their organisation and almost pulled off a win in 2005. While Labour’s attention has been on its leadership contest, the upcoming review is absolutely critical if we are to have any chance of winning in 2017.
The Chinese strategist Sun Tzu has a saying:
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
I agree with those who say it is time for an honest debate in the Labour Party about ourselves – and if we’re to beat them it would also be wise to get to know John Key and the National organisation much better than we do. They’re not mugs.
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