A month ago, I wrote
that National’s moves to gut the Emissions Trading Scheme would increase government debt by $73 billion by 2050.
A Treasury report said that National’s ETS changes to subsidise polluters would see government debt 6-8% of GDP higher than it otherwise would be. GDP in 2050 is modelled
at $914 billion, so 8% is $73 billion. It turns out that was a gross under-estimate.
Remember that’s only the total by 2050. It will be building up the whole time until then – nearly $4 billion a year on average – and we’ll be paying interest the whole time. National’s sop to polluters will cost us as much as $100 billion, over $9 billion in 2050 alone, over the next forty years just on interest payments.
I’m not sure what is worse – that National is prepared to put us in so much debt for a short-term pay-out to their polluter mates, that the ETS won’t even reduce emissions according to the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, or that Key and Smith seem completely unaware of the problems to the extent that they don’t even know how much debt they’re loading on us. No wonder Treasury has refused to endorse National’s ETS
and “has formed the view that the level and quality of analysis presented is not commensurate with the significance of the proposals”.
An incompetent minister, a Prime Minister who’s too busy heading off to the next PR op, and an ideology that says profits first-people and environment second. It all adds up to a recipe for disaster.
[I don’t know why my numbers don’t agree with the Green’s but you can following my working and they haven’t provided theirs]