Key’s support ebbing

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 am, September 12th, 2014 - 66 comments
Categories: john key, polls - Tags: , , ,

Two polls last night show Key’s support ebbing. Most dramatic is the Herald Digipoll:

Key support slumps in latest poll

Prime Minister John Key has plunged in personal popularity dropping by 7.3 points and Labour leader David Cunliffe has jumped by 3.9 points, in the latest Herald DigiPoll survey.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has also risen. Mr Key is still well above either of them as preferred Prime Minister on 61.6 per cent. But it is his second lowest rating in a Herald DigiPoll survey since becoming Prime Minister in November 2008.

Mr Cunliffe has risen from 14 per cent to 17.9 per cent, the best personal rating he has had in DigiPoll since taking over the Labour leadership in September last year.

The One News Colmar Brunton also has Key down 2 to 46%, with National down 4 to 46% and the Greens up 3 to 14%.

National have gambled everything on “Team Key”. They may yet wish that they hadn’t.

66 comments on “Key’s support ebbing”

  1. b waghorn 1

    I’m going put my two nails in keys political coffin lid today. Vote early vote left.

  2. tc 2

    Nah they didnt have a choice aside from bill none of the others can smile and slither like jk and do a half decent job of it as key has been intensively prepared for this.

    With the msm in the pocket, glucina, farrar and hooten applying the diversion and spin this was factored in. Its been masterful coordinated and works on many fronts to further blur any realities, the odgers email, hootens columns etc

    Ede was conveniently out of harms way and jk had done the handy photo ops and comments about slater to frame up the ‘ its all a left wing consiracy I am just a friendly guy…’ which is easy when churnalists never ask the right question, dig deeper or persist to see if inconsistencies arise.

    Dirty politics has been in full swing since early 08 and yesterdays CEO poll in granny is another example of the many angles opened up to keep nats in powe.

    I hope enough swing voters and middle NZ wake up to the stench wafting from the hollowmen as the MSM will try and keep them sedated.

  3. Tracey 3

    Is it feasible, or just wishful thinking to wonder if Labour could get to 28% on polling day (the real polling day I mean) and that support not come from the Left? If it is more than just a fantasy would that be enough based on poll trends last few elections?

    • Clemgeopin 3.1

      I think the voters from all sides will begin to realise that Labour is the best option overall and there will be a surge in Labour’s poll ratings. I am expecting and hoping that on the polling night, Labour will be at about 33% in their party vote.

      • Tracey 3.1.1

        Wow clem. I am not that optimistic. Is that higher than 2011 or about the same?

        It needs to come from tge Right hand side though…

        • Tania 3.1.1.1

          No Tracey it needs to come from those that didnt vote last time. We can easily win this if the left all vote

        • alwyn 3.1.1.2

          33% would be much, much higher than they got in 2011. It is also extremely unlikely as I doubt that there has been a poll this year that had Labour over 30%.
          In 2011 Labour got 27.5%. It was of course the lowest that they had got since 1928 when they got 26.2% or so.

          Personally, and based on all the polls for the last couple of months, I suspect that Labour may, just, beat the 1928 figure but it is hard to see them reaching the 2011 highs.

          Remember the days when David Cunliffe was first elected leader and, being unknown to the public, basked in figures of around 37% for Labour in the polls? At the time he was boasting about how he would lead Labour to levels of 40%. Sadly, for him the Labour vote has steadily dropped by 1%/month.

          http://www.parliament.nz/en-nz/parl-support/research-papers/00PLLaw2012021/final-results-for-the-2011-new-zealand-general-election

    • Tania 3.2

      well hooton says National always come down five points in the actual results so wait and see

    • dave 3.3

      i have been door knocking since Feb in labour areas we collecting date and phone numbers landlines are few and far between i was surprised i think the election result will be a surprise these people are invisible you don’t find them on the net whale oil the standard or the polls you find them knocking on there doors getting them registered even having tea there a lot anger that wasnt there in 2011,
      these areas the greens are none existent polls are going to proven unreadable
      the fact early voting is unprecedented something is happening .

  4. irascible 4

    When a political party campaigns using a robot programmed with little else but a series of empty slogans and no policy the public begin to realise that those from Planet Key are not connected with reality or commonsense.
    The Botany National candidate, blessed with the same robotic, planet key delivery and thought processes (often fed from the Slater blog) was unable to cope when his delivery was interrupted by a questioner and had to plead with the Chair to prevent anyone interjecting during his robotic delivery. A total loss of credibility!!

    • Hami Shearlie 4.1

      I think Jamie Lee Ross models himself on Get Smart’s “Hymie the Robot” – except that Hymie was much more entertaining – and had wayyy more hair!!

      • irascible 4.1.1

        Hymie did display a modicum of intelligence if I recall Get Smart scripts accurately. I can’t see Jami-Lee being able to outwit Hymie at draughts.

    • disturbed 4.2

      Well said irascrible, Key is a puppet of big business or a “stool pigeon”as my old dad used to say.

      Hope we see a lift in labour, green, NZ First, they will go well together and save our beautiful land from being stolen from us under the guise of “recession”.

      All of it all was engineered By the Bilderberg Group at secret meetings to make the worlds resources easily & cheaply bought by the global elite.

      John Key is included in this scheme with the Bilderberg group, as he attended a secret meeting in 2011/12.
      See the attendance list and Key never advised the NZ public he was involved.

      http://twochurchesonly.com/supmat/03/most_influential/bilderberg_group/list_of_bilderberg_attendees.pdf

  5. Anne 5

    Is it feasible, or just wishful thinking to wonder if Labour could get to 28% on polling day…

    If they don’t and National forms the next government then I hope they will have the courtesy to give David Parker a knighthood. After all they owe a great deal to him. What a brilliant strategy it was to bring in a CGT and to raise the age of superannuation to 67 and spend two years spreading the word around the country. Splendid stuff. Not only will we be blessed with another three years of a Nat -led government but we will have that adorably cute but brain-dead Colin Craig and his little band of fellow flat-earthers ruling over us too. (sarc)

    • Tracey 5.1

      Agree. IF you are going to champion those two things and you know the kind of opponent you are up against you need to have a very good “meme” to spead.

      They havent.

      So scared are they of not winning middle minds they havent said the obvious… Only those with multiple properties need to consider a tax on their profit IF they sell.

      • Chooky 5.1.1

        +100…Labour don’t seem to be able to help themselves

        • Anne 5.1.1.1

          Labour don’t learn from past mistakes so they are destined to make them again and again. Each new generation of Labour politicians think they know it all and won’t listen to those who have been around the political traps for many years.

          National views the average punter with healthy disregard. They know what a lazy, ignorant, gullible lot they are when it comes to politics and treat them accordingly. Labour insists on naively believing the punters have the brains most don’t have, and produces wordy policies few of them have a chance in hell of comprehending. The one time they saw the light was under Helen Clark. Policy was reduced to simple language – rarely using more than 4 to 5 letter words and a maximum of 4 to 5 sentences. She couched everything in a way that wouldn’t frighten the horses.

          National run their simplistic slogans past 5 year olds, and if they understand them they know the punters will understand them too. Look at their policies for this election. ZILCH – apart from a vague promise of a tax cut sometime in the distant future. Yet the idiot punters are flocking to them. This, despite the level of corruption and blatant unlawful behaviour which extends to the very top tier of government and through to the prime minister himself.

          I rest my case.

          • disturbed 5.1.1.1.1

            Anne a bit over the top, how can we teach new dogs old tricks.

            Follow Greens they are inventing themselves every day and getting to sit in TV studios where NZ see them on TV.

            This Labour has failed at, and Metiria has done a fabulous job here.

            Anyway my Daughter works at Now Communications in Napier and a email came five minutes ago saying;

            ” That moment when David Cunliffe visits your workplace’, police, security, and reporters are everywhere.”

            So he is out on the hustings but more early morning 2 minute chats as the greens are doing will also help.

            • Anne 5.1.1.1.1.1

              No way disturbed. That is how it is. But I often use allegories to paint a picture of reality. They’re not meant to be taken literally. My suggestion that National run their slogans past 5 year olds is one such allegory.

  6. lurgee 6

    Labour + Greens + NZF = National.

    I remember the heady days when it was just Labour + Greens = National.

    Will the Greens decide it would be better to try mitigate National by working with their natural enemy, or watch the country get destroyed for another 3 years?

    • Tracey 6.1

      I dont believe the Greens consider their potential alliances based on the concept of natural enemies but rather compatible or compromiseable policy.

      IF we are to be pillaged by the nats for a third term i would rather see some green policy amongst tge mix than none at all.

      • weka 6.1.1

        So do you think the GP should support National on C and S?

        • Tracey 6.1.1.1

          not sure. first thought is no…

          • weka 6.1.1.1.1

            “IF we are to be pillaged by the nats for a third term i would rather see some green policy amongst tge mix than none at all.”

            I wouldn’t. First, if the GP enable the formation of a National govt, it will destroy the party. Second, if NZ doesn’t vote for change this election, then we are better off letting the destruction of that be fully apparent. If the GP get too involved in environmental issues with a third term National govt, they will be used as greenwash and set us all back many years. They will become untrustworthy.

            It’s worth remembering that the GP didn’t renew its MOU in 2011. There were good reasons for that, not least that there is so little common ground between the two parties’ policies. People think that because National say they want to clean up waterways that this means they support GP policy on this. They don’t. As Norman said on RNZ this morning, National want to run a pollution economy, the GP want to run a smart green economy. Worlds apart.

            • Sans Cle 6.1.1.1.1.1

              Agreed. Green Party in Ireland met this fate in 2007. (pathetic time to join a corrupt government). Years upon years of doing the hard yards, establishing themselves as a respectable party, getting rid of the sandals and candles image in the Irish psyche was wiped – by association with the deal they made with the devil…..all for two ministerial seats. Greens here shouldn’t and I think wouldn’t make such a mistake. Now let’s stop talking about Green/Labour loyalty – its what the MSM is trying to make us do. let’s not be pawns in their game. Carry on and vote left!

        • bearded git 6.1.1.2

          you must be joking weka?

          • weka 6.1.1.2.1

            About what exactly? bear in mind that my comment was made in the context of Tracey being unsure whether the GP should support National on C and S.

    • weka 6.2

      “Will the Greens decide it would be better to try mitigate National by working with their natural enemy, or watch the country get destroyed for another 3 years?”

      Depends on what you mean by work with. If you mean support the formation of a National govt, then no, they won’t do that, as they have stated clearly. If you mean work on individual policy on a case by case basis then yes, that’s what they’ve already been doing.

      The GP have been consistently clear that they will not support any govt that is so far from their own policy. FFS, they didn’t even have a MOU with National this time round. Please stop partaking in the smear

      • Lanthanide 6.2.1

        “then no, they won’t do that, as they have stated clearly”

        Actually Russel Norman went to great pains this morning on the radio to say it was “highly unlikely”, not an impossibility.

        • weka 6.2.1.1

          Two things,

          Norman said this morning they won’t support National on C and S (~ 2:50 in the RNZ audio). Unless you think he is being tricky and wants to include the possibility that the GP will form an actual coalition with National, that means they won’t support a National govt.

          Second, the GP’s stance for a number of years has been that they would only form govt with parties who they have common ground with policy wise. Ergo, no support for National at this time.

          • Lanthanide 6.2.1.1.1

            So why did Russel say it was “highly unlikely” they would reach a confidence and supply agreement, and repeat that several times, if he really meant “never”?

            • Dialey 6.2.1.1.1.1

              Never say never…maybe the Nats will do an about turn and follow the bue green path…unlikely I know, but all things are possible, aren’t they? Never is a long time

            • Zolan 6.2.1.1.1.2

              Leaving the door open for Nats to change, rather than being at fault for slamming it shut.

            • Liberal Realist 6.2.1.1.1.3

              To try and pick up soft National (swing) voters who would traditionally have swung to Labour?

            • KJT 6.2.1.1.1.4

              Because that is party policy, as decided by the members.

              In the unlikely event that National gains a degree of sanity and advocates for clean rivers and reigning in excessive wealth, we leave the door open.

              .

            • weka 6.2.1.1.1.5

              “So why did Russel say it was “highly unlikely” they would reach a confidence and supply agreement, and repeat that several times, if he really meant “never”?”

              This got covered in OM.

              The GP won’t give C and S after the election to National. That is very very clear. If you don’t believe me, read the actual policy document. And listen to Norman saying it again on RNZ.

              He’s not commiting the GP to future election promises, because he doesn’t have a mandate to do so. That’s why he can’t say never. Again, read the document.

              The GP has intentionally positioned itself as a policy focussed party rather than a partisan one. This is why they won’t come out and rule out National for the rest of eternity. Or rule Labour in for the rest of eternity for that matter. People who think this means that the GP are willing to support a right wing govt are completely missing the point. If a right wing govt supported GP policy, then yes, the GP would work with them. Do you think we will have a right wing govt that supports GP policy in general?

              I really don’t understand what is so difficult to understand about this.

  7. JRT 7

    Fastest growing demographic in NZ? Chinese living in Auckland. A breakdown of a Stuff poll a day or two ago showed 70% of Chinese vote National, 15% vote Labour. NZ is no longer reasonably evenly balanced between left and right voters, and to make it worse many left voters feel disenfranchised and don’t vote. We are an unusual country in that we allow non-citizens to vote.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 7.1

      [multiple citations needed]

      A Stuff poll you say? Whizz-bang Scientifiness.

      • JRT 7.1.1

        http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/polls/10483648/Aucklanders-happy-with-Nats

        “It showed that National had far more than its overall 52.6 per cent support among Chinese voters (69.1 per cent) while Labour only had the backing of 15 per cent of Chinese voters, against an overall score of 26.1 per cent.

        Labour was strong, though, among Pasifika voters (65.9 per cent against 15.8 for National) and among Maori with 36.6 per cent against 25.6 per cent for National.

        Those voters who identified as Indian gravitated to the two main parties with 54 per cent supporting National and 37 per cent for Labour. Just 4.7 per cent said they backed the Greens, with virtually no support from the Indian community for any other party in our sample of more than 7000 voters.”

        • Tracey 7.1.1.1

          “.Fastest growing demographic in NZ? Chinese living in Auckland… ” source?

          “.. NZ is no longer reasonably evenly balanced between left and right voters ”

          But is it really cos of the percentage of 170,000 chinese living in NZ?!? If you add the latest poll results into left and right, how disproportionate is this divide of which you write?

    • Tracey 7.2

      What percentage of Chinese immigrants make up our population?

      Your post is a little unsettling but not for the reasons you offered.

      The census reports from 2013

      If “fastest growing” is measured in percentage, chinese growth is well vehind Indian and Filipino…

      “..During the seven-year period between censuses, the Chinese population increased by 16 per cent to 171,000 people, the number of Indians increased by 48 per cent to 155,000 and Filipinos more than doubled to 40,000 ”

      Of these many will be children and not eligible to vote.

      So, we have a maximum of 170,000 Chinese in NZ of whom some will be under 18.

      So I am calling misinformed ignorant BS on your post.

      • JRT 7.2.1

        Tracey, I’m not trying to stir up trouble here, just trying to point out what may be a contributing factor to the left/right imbalance in NZ. NZ used to be very slightly left in voting preferences, we got quite a few National governments because of first past the post, but often in elections National won, the popular vote showed a slight advantage to Labour. This doesn’t seem to be the case anymore, and the demographics of NZ have certainly changed in a big way over the last decade or so.

        I see no harm in asking some questions. If immigrants are changing our political landscape, then how do you educate new immigrants that the good things, the healthcare and education for all etc they came to NZ for, were largely created by the left, and that by voting for the neolibs in NZ they will in the end create the dog eat dog society they moved away from? And should the privilege of voting be only for citizens of NZ, that is people who were born here or have made a commitment to the country? You have to be a citizen to vote in Australia.

        • Tracey 7.2.1.1

          You can askbut your statement that chinese are tge fastest growing demographic was plain wrong.

    • Sanctuary 7.3

      First generation mainland Chinese with no experience of democracy and the rule of law do tend towards authoritarian parties because a) they are terrified of authority and want to stay onside with the state at all costs and b) they imagine authoritarian right wing parties behave in ways they understand, i.e. cronyist, nepotistic and corrupt (which is where Judith Collins comes in).

      I would guarantee though that voting patterns amongst assimilated ‘banana’ second and third generation Chinese would be little different from the rest of the background population, because they would have grown up with an innate understanding of what “democracy”, the separation of powers, and the social contract is all about.

  8. Gosman 8

    The trouble for the left is that while support for National may be ebbing somewhat it is pretty much static for Labour and The Greens. The main beneficiaries of the lower support for National are NZ First and the Conservatives. That doesn’t help the left a huge deal.

    • Te Reo Putake 8.1

      Not so, Gossie. It’s been obvious for yonks that we would need support from a third party to form a government. And, like it or not, that party was always going to be NZF. On the other side, if the Conservatives fall short of the 5% mark, then every party vote they get directly hurts National. And given that their current coalition partners are the biggest losers this time round, Keys options are getting pretty thin.

      The greatest change from the last election is that the media cannot put off potential Labour voters by saying it’s a ‘done deal’ this time. Don’t bother isn’t an option this election.

    • ScottGN 8.2

      Your statement is totally untrue Gosman. According to the TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll support for the Greens has increased 3% in a week.

  9. dave 9

    We must have a corrupt government being Scottish I have a choice shortly a torry rat infested country or a fresh start in hopefully in dependant torrie free country
    Alex salmond is better option than a corrupt banker like key

  10. Blue 10

    The trouble for National is that they have given people absolutely no reason to vote for them. They have hardly any policy, most of it is minor stuff, their only ‘headline-grabbing’ one is tax cuts maybe in three years.

    Their biggest asset, Key, has been absolute shite in the debates. He’s trying, but he looks like he has one foot on a Hawaiian beach already. That crap line about NZ ‘being on the cusp of something special’ has been widely mocked for the empty, patronising tripe that it is. The John Key of a year or two ago would never have used a line like that.

    Then there’s the Dirty Politics saga, which has so far resulted in one Cabinet Minister going down and an inquiry into the SIS allegations. Polls show most don’t believe Key’s denials. His reputation is going to the dogs.

    In short, there is no earthly reason to vote National and I will be very surprised if their vote doesn’t sink like a stone as we get closer to election day.

  11. Sable 11

    Given roughly only a third of New Zealanders actually voted for Keys with a 1 million people staying home last election Keys actual support base is quite small. These absurd polls give a very inaccurate representation of his popularity and for that matter his opponents as well.

  12. karol 12

    The big story here is that Keys and the Nats vote is slipping – One News making it about another party is a major diversion.

    Listen to the main news here. Key’s vote is slipping.

    • Tracey 12.1

      It was never about anything other than selling assets and cutting wages and conditions…

    • Rodel 12.2

      Come on. These ridiculous polls are little money making jobs where they ask 750 people (usually on a 1970’s land line) who they’d vote for are a farce.
      Winston knows that.

      Their margin of error 3% or whatever is a statistical farce. Anyone who has studied statistics 101 knows that margins of error are statisticians’ way of pretending to cover their arses when they get it all wrong. ( Statistician say, ‘Man with one foot in an oven and the other in a deep freeze is on the average quite comfortable.. margin of error 98%’)

      The only value in polls is that they wrongly persuade voters that their votes are worth nothing.
      Ignore silly polls and take your friends out to vote.Do it now!

  13. David H 13

    And Toby Manhire in the Herald today said pretty much the same thing. Out of ideas, stale, 3rd term itis.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2014/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503581&objectid=11322978

  14. Penny Bright 14

    FYI

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/keys-preferred-pm-rating-slumps-latest-herald-digipoll-ck-162284#comment-668131

    Key’s preferred PM rating slumps in latest Herald Digipoll

    NZ First surges above 8%. PLUS: Poll frenzy continues with latest OneNews-Colmar Brunton survey, which has National slipping. UPDATED

    __________________________________________________________

    My comment – yet to be published:
    __________________________________________________________

    Good.

    At last the public are starting to realise the TRUTH about Bank of America shareholder John Key and whose interests he’s really serving?

    Hint – follow the dollar …….

    http://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-nz/00CLOOCMPPFinInterests20141/2e04287ad20ee5da12a308149e59bb16d7f47ce5 (Pg 30)

    Rt Hon John Key (National, Helensville)

    2 Other companies and business entities

    Little Nell – property investment, Aspen, Colorado
    Bank of America – banking

    Penny Bright

  15. Plan B 15

    NZ ‘being on the cusp of something special’
    yes we are , it is called our firstLabour Greens Government

  16. Michael 16

    The Nats are still well ahead of Labour, which will be lucky if its Party Vote equals its 2011 score, which was its worst ever. The Greens aren’t quite ready to replace Labour as the lead opposition party but they’ve made impressive strides this campaign. Labour is a tired and timid party of the status quo with nothing relevant to offer people.

  17. Tautoko Viper 17

    You are right, John Key
    “We are on the cusp of something special.”
    An example of a cusp is the top of a hill.
    It’s all downhill from now on.

  18. Jack the Rat 18

    Winston could crack close to 10% and I am guessing Key could be around 44% or less I think its game on for Key + ? vs Labour/Green/NZF

    Key has been well stage managed since breaking out from his State House Roots, he has been managed by the likes of Michelle Boag and the Tory Machine, amazing the power of PR. Unfortunately the compliant masses are gullible to this type of trickery.

  19. Jack the Rat 19

    The Left need to realise and understand that “butter does not melt in John Keys mouth” especially in the eyes of the media.

  20. dv 20

    Interesting Tony Ryall announced today that the carers would get travel time

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10491518/Cabinet-approves-travel-hours-for-in-home-carers

    Under the proposal, home support workers will be paid for the time taken to travel between clients, at the minimum wage rate, from July 1, next year and mileage of, at least, 50 cents per kilometre from March 1, 2016

    Note 2016!!

    Arn’t the Nats good (Sarc)

  21. mike s 21

    Following is copy / paste of my comment in another thread as this is the more relevant thread for it…

    This is off topic sorry, but can someone please explain to me the preferred prime minister polls and how they work. John Key is down to 61.6% in the latest one, his second lowest ever but at 61.6% is still miles in front of Cunliffe who has risen to his highest at 17.9%

    My question is that at 61.6%, does that mean that there are quite a few left leaning voters who say they would prefer Key as prime minister??? Because there certainly isn’t over 60% support for rightwing parties. If so then WTF!? I certainly couldn’t imagine any labour voter preferring Key? So who?

    Or is it that some respondents only know the name John Key so just put him down coz they don’t know the names of any of the others? How is the poll done, is it just a list of party leaders names and you tick your preferred one for prime minister?

    I just find it hard to believe that large numbers of labour, greens and NZ first voters would prefer Key as prime minister. These preferred pm polls have always nagged at me, I would have thought that they would more closely resemble the party support poles, maybe I’m missing something

    Fuckin’ polls…

  22. You are all forgetting Honi and his mates .My prediction Labour/Green / Mana .
    A Solid left majority .The young first time voters are going to vote for the so called Dot.com party .

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