As the events of the past two years have shown, it's always a good idea to assume a single poll is an exact reflection of reality.
— Branko Marcetic (@BMarchetich) September 12, 2017
Thrown by that poll last night? How about we ignore the Gowerising of the election for a moment and take a look around.
RNZ's mini update to poll of polls has Nats on 41.3 Labour 40.5. NZF 7.5 Greens 5.5
— Jacob McSweeny (@JournoMan) September 12, 2017
Poll of Polls mini-update
RNZ’s updated poll – taking into account tonight’s Newshub-Reid Research poll and the Bauer Media Insights IQ poll – has the two major parties neck and neck.
National is ahead on 41.3 percent while Labour is on 40.5 percent.
New Zealand First is on 7.5 percent, the Greens are on 5.5 percent, the Māori Party is on 1.4 percent, The Opportunities Party is on 1.9 percent and ACT is on 0.6 percent.
On these numbers, National would win 51 seats, Labour would get 50, New Zealand First 9, the Greens 7, the Māori Party 2, and one for ACT.
The last full RNZ Poll of Polls – from Friday – has Labour on 41.8 percent, fractionally ahead of National’s 41.1 percent.
I’ve been saying for a few months that this is a volatile election and so it could go any way. It makes it more stressful, but it also means there is room for unexpected movement. At the moment, it’s looking like a tight election, but if we ignore the poll from last night for a moment, it seems likely that there will be a change of government. There is hope in those spaces, and reason for caution.
I can’t make sense of that single poll in terms of the events in politics recently though, and I’m not seeing any particularly convincing commentary to explain it other than these,
shit be cray, cray be unstable
— Keith Ng (@keith_ng) September 12, 2017
If the polls are right and sentiments changed by ~10%, then basically nothing is knowable.
— Keith Ng (@keith_ng) September 12, 2017
Thread on what might be happening with this poll,
Now I'm back at home, that Newshub poll, eh? It's too early to know for sure, but my guess so far is that it's rogue. We'll see soon!
— Matt Whitehead (@MJWhitehead) September 12, 2017
The only other thing that touched my radar was some chatter about how social media is being used by the right to push on anti-Labour/anti-Green memes, but honestly I’m not sure if that would show up in a single poll in any relevant way. More to the point is that single poll interpretation looks like reading entrails and that no-one knows what is going on. In that vacuum, the poll reporting starts to lead what people think and do, both in terms of voting and how they respond to the narratives being created around them. Even more so given we have advanced voting already underway. Bill covered some of that in The Bullshit post last night.
It’s not the poll that matters, it’s what is being said about it and how we react.
It’s a problem for a democracy to have a MSM so in thrall with the drama of the single poll instead of reporting in ways that enhance understanding. But we knew that already, so let’s move on to what we can do.
Expect a fair amount of bullshit over the next days, and consider ways in which it might be resisted. It will come from the right (already last night ‘a vote for the Greens is a vote for National so vote Labour instead’ was being pushed by the spinners), and it will come from the mischief makers in the media.
Instead we can shine lights on what is important and has meaning. For those of us so inclined, we can call out the bullshit and pull apart the troll lines. But we also need to encourage people to vote with a conscience and we can have conversations that push back against the narrative that it’s too late or NZ is fucked or there is no point. We can remind others and ourselves that there are many many good things about what the left are offering, and that these things are worth voting for.
I think we can also use the impression of this poll as a sobering effect and reminder to not be complacent.
— Scott Kennedy (@ScottKennedyNZ) September 12, 2017
There is still work to do. Donate, volunteer, kōrero, support.
We also need to push back against being worn down by the right’s insistence that they get to rule. This isn’t over yet, not by a long shot.
Some more thoughts from twitter,
So really, the most that can taken from this poll – and this includes triumphalist Twitter righties – is that it’s gonna be close. 7/7
— Russell Brown (@publicaddress) September 12, 2017
— Gareth Hughes (@GarethMP) September 12, 2017
I endorse this. A good well placed heckle can make the meeting.
— Jeremy Greenbrook-Held (@JGreenbrookHeld) September 12, 2017
Lastly, and this might be the most important there is this,
In threatening times large amounts of people are seized with conservatism. It's usually the wrong response. https://t.co/qoGm5eveG3
— Elizabeth Knox (@ElizabethKnoxNZ) September 12, 2017