Kia Kaha Lefties – it’s one poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, September 13th, 2017 - 93 comments
Categories: election 2017, journalism, Politics, polls, spin - Tags:

Thrown by that poll last night? How about we ignore the Gowerising of the election for a moment and take a look around.

From RNZ last night,

Poll of Polls mini-update

RNZ’s updated poll – taking into account tonight’s Newshub-Reid Research poll and the Bauer Media Insights IQ poll – has the two major parties neck and neck.

National is ahead on 41.3 percent while Labour is on 40.5 percent.

New Zealand First is on 7.5 percent, the Greens are on 5.5 percent, the Māori Party is on 1.4 percent, The Opportunities Party is on 1.9 percent and ACT is on 0.6 percent.

On these numbers, National would win 51 seats, Labour would get 50, New Zealand First 9, the Greens 7, the Māori Party 2, and one for ACT.

The last full RNZ Poll of Polls – from Friday – has Labour on 41.8 percent, fractionally ahead of National’s 41.1 percent.

I’ve been saying for a few months that this is a volatile election and so it could go any way. It makes it more stressful, but it also means there is room for unexpected movement. At the moment, it’s looking like a tight election, but if we ignore the poll from last night for a moment, it seems likely that there will be a change of government. There is hope in those spaces, and reason for caution.

I can’t make sense of that single poll in terms of the events in politics recently though, and I’m not seeing any particularly convincing commentary to explain it other than these,

Thread on what might be happening with this poll,

The only other thing that touched my radar was some chatter about how social media is being used by the right to push on anti-Labour/anti-Green memes, but honestly I’m not sure if that would show up in a single poll in any relevant way. More to the point is that single poll interpretation looks like reading entrails and that no-one knows what is going on. In that vacuum, the poll reporting starts to lead what people think and do, both in terms of voting and how they respond to the narratives being created around them. Even more so given we have advanced voting already underway. Bill covered some of that in The Bullshit post last night.

It’s not the poll that matters, it’s what is being said about it and how we react.

It’s a problem for a democracy to have a MSM so in thrall with the drama of the single poll instead of reporting in ways that enhance understanding. But we knew that already, so let’s move on to what we can do.

Expect a fair amount of bullshit over the next days, and consider ways in which it might be resisted. It will come from the right (already last night ‘a vote for the Greens is a vote for National so vote Labour instead’ was being pushed by the spinners), and it will come from the mischief makers in the media.

Instead we can shine lights on what is important  and has meaning.  For those of us so inclined, we can call out the bullshit and pull apart the troll lines. But we also need to encourage people to vote with a conscience and we can have conversations that push back against the narrative that it’s too late or NZ is fucked or there is no point. We can remind others and ourselves that there are many many good things about what the left are offering, and that these things are worth voting for.

I think we can also use the impression of this poll as a sobering effect and reminder to not be complacent.

There is still work to do. Donate, volunteer, kōrero, support.

Greens volunteer and donate

Labour volunteer and donate

We also need to push back against being worn down by the right’s insistence that they get to rule. This isn’t over yet, not by a long shot.

Some more thoughts from twitter,

Thread (funny),

Lastly, and this might be the most important there is this,

 

 

93 comments on “Kia Kaha Lefties – it’s one poll”

  1. Incognito 1

    Good post! It needs to be said again, again, and again.

    It’s a problem for a democracy to have a MSM so in thrall with the drama of the single poll instead of reporting in ways that enhance understanding.

    There’s no real drama just the manufactured hype by the MSM. As long as we have selfie-taking rubberneckers on Motorways who don’t pay attention to what happens around them causing (more) accidents we’ll have these MSM-manufactured ‘dramas’.

  2. Cynical jester 2

    Last nights poll was the factor of this Labour supporter shifting to the greens. I think it’s the duty of everyone who wants a center left govt to party vote green atm. If the greens go, not only does a talented caucus,not only is it a sign that climate change will destroy our species but it’ll also cost labour the election.

    I know most labourites want rid of mmp and in particular the greens who they always accuse of being unstrategic but labour supporters are now acting more unstrategic than anyone.

    Stealing green policy, saying a vote for the greens is a wasted vote and quite frankly the way labour supporters act like National when it comes to issues Metiria raised has galvanized me.

    Party vote green electorate vote labour I have very little trust in labour to keep its word on climate or the tpp, I’m a millennial and feel Jacinda /Robertson are the new Lange/Douglas and so thanks but no thanks neoliberals.

    • red-blooded 2.1

      In what basis do you assume that most Labour voters want rid of MMP and the Greens? I’m a Labour member and that’s certainly not the narrative I hear. Party vote Green if you want, but stop shitting on the only party that will enable the Greens to have a role in government. And don’t project your cynicism onto Labour – we’ve always taken climate change seriously and we’ve got a clear policy on TPP. Leave your “neoliberal” label at the door – if that’s how you think of Labour you haven’t been paying attention.

      • marty mars 2.1.1

        Tautoko

        I don’t agree with some labour positions and I can live with that. Seems like we have wee holes above the waterline and instead of fixing them, some want the whole thing sunk – not me.

      • adam 2.1.2

        Oh dear red-blooded, you really are self deluded hack for the labour party. A middle class tosser who really gets off on telling people how to think. See how simple it is to ramp it all up via an ad hominem.

        Read their economic policy. then tell me in all honesty it is not liberalism. You can’t, because it is. Also if people actually want a left wing government good on them, and good on them for noticing that the labour party have a history of destroying anything to the left of them.

        In economic terms labour are offering more of the same, and even moderates are seeing this. You need to calm down red-blooded, and most of all realise two ticks labour is just a waste of a vote, if you want real change.

        • Union city greens 2.1.2.1

          @adam

          There are plenty of good, decent working class folk and piss poor underclass who will rightly or wrongly vote labour or greens, me included.
          Not wanting to be confrontational, but take this however you want, that go to ‘middle class’ insult is just an embarrassment to you and a direct attack on the very people you say your politics represent.

          I’m in no doubt the chips on your shoulders are skewing your balance and objectivity.
          You should just accept that NZ isn’t going to vote for far left extremist policies any time soon. You may not like it, but c’mon, if you’re not on the field of play, you’re in effect, playing with yourself. heh.

          • adam 2.1.2.1.1

            “Workers, the most absolutely necessary part of the whole social structure, without whose services none can either eat, or clothe, or shelter himself, are just the ones who get the least to eat, to wear, and to be housed” Voltairine de Cleyre

            Did I offended you union city greens?

            You seem offended. By the way redblooded has stated they have a Masters in some such, and that they are middle class.

            I don’t represent anyone, I’m just pointing out that a condescending middle class exists in NZ politics – are you part of it Union city greens?

            As for you last comment, paragraph. What a sanctimonious piss of crap, just be honest and call me a wanker if that’s you opinion. Rather than repeating the same tired dross over and over.

        • marty mars 2.1.2.2

          adam there is no ad hom in red blooded comment as far as I can see.

          I assume YOU want real change so who are you voting for again? Oh wait that’s right you have said you are not voting haven’t you? Please correct me if I have that wrong.

          • adam 2.1.2.2.1

            “And don’t project your cynicism onto Labour”

            Really not a personal attack. Alone with the other spin and lies red blooded keeps saying about labour party, funny when asked for links to these, they never respond.

            Real change comes from people not elections, and definitely not this election. I’m getting tired of the ‘better to have your foot cut off, than your knee cut off’ argument many here are pushing.

            Plus, and this is quite a big one really, the labour party had a democratic process to elect a leader, and then their was a coup. Makes me feel more than just a little uncomfortable with them, not sure why others can so simply accept it. So ask yourself, if people can accept that, what’s to stop an authoritarian coup happening?

            But sure, lets let labour party people get away with lying, such a good sign of progressive change that.

            • marty mars 2.1.2.2.1.1

              lol – it is better to have your foot cut off than your head actually.

              Labour people appear to me to be saying the way it is and others don’t like that for some reason.

              • adam

                This might help marty mars 🙂

                I know being all beige is the vogue at the moment, and your a pariah if you question accepted orthodoxy. I know people hate the fact I demand better. And the list of names I been called is getting longer.

                So to be truly contrary to the beige brigade memes, we are capable of anything.

      • weka 2.1.3

        “we’ve always taken climate change seriously and we’ve got a clear policy on TPP.”

        Um, no you haven’t and no you don’t. I think some of the reactions from Labour supporters to criticism are valid (e.g. I don’t believe that Labour voters want rid of MMP). But on policy the criticisms themselves are valid and stand. Even now Labour are not intending to move fast enough on climate change and that is a huge problem.

        And their TPP stance is actually bloody murky (I wrote a post on it and I’m still not clear what they intend).

        It’s fine to be tribal Labour, but that doesn’t mean Labour are perfect.

        • marty mars 2.1.3.1

          Do you think the Green Party proposals around climate change are enough and move fast enough for the actual situation we are in?

          Yes Labour isn’t perfect and either are The Greens imo.

      • And don’t project your cynicism onto Labour – we’ve always taken climate change seriously and we’ve got a clear policy on TPP.

        Then why didn’t we get a carbon tax in 1987?
        Why do people not understand your position on the TPP if it’s so clear? Well, it is clear – you will sign it and ratify it against the wishes of the country.

        • weka 2.1.4.1

          “Then why didn’t we get a carbon tax in 1987?”

          This.

        • marty mars 2.1.4.2

          hard to argue that that is not clear when you have stated clearly how clear it is

          • adam 2.1.4.2.1

            Say what now? Seriously marty mars, what are you saying?

            • marty mars 2.1.4.2.1.1

              “Why do people not understand your position on the TPP if it’s so clear? Well, it is clear – you will sign it and ratify it against the wishes of the country.”
              drac said that

              hard to argue that that is not clear when you have stated clearly how clear it is
              I said that – seems clear enough to me – what bit don’t you understand adam?

          • Draco T Bastard 2.1.4.2.2

            Yep, but they won’t come out and directly say that because it is against the wishes of the majority of people. Instead they come out with conditions instead giving the illusion that it may not be signed.

            If they get the changes that they say that they want they will sign it and the position of the minor parties won’t matter a damn as National will support it.

            So, we need for Labour to say that they won’t sign it or we need everyone to vote Green. The latter is the batter option.

            • marty mars 2.1.4.2.2.1

              so for you this is the big issue?

              That they say one thing, you think that is untrue and believe they will do the opposite and that they are deliberately lying to obscure the truth of what they will do from the unsuspecting voters who may vote for them?

              How far will the Green policies get without Labour in there?

    • Bearded Git 2.2

      Nice one Cynical-good tactical voting. This is the only way we will get a progressive government.

      I will vote Green today.

  3. bwaghorn 3

    ”the only other thing that touched my radar was some chatter about how social media is being used by the right to push on anti-Labour/anti-Green memes, but honestly I’m not sure if that would show up in a single poll in any relevant way. ”

    my facebook feed is crammed with nat lies . hate speech and personal attacks on Ardern

    • Carolyn_nth 3.1

      Makes me glad I don’t check my facebook very often.

      Needs as many people as possible calling out the lies and distortions to people we know as much as possible.

    • cleangreen 3.2

      Mine too bwaghorn

      In fact I sent some of national’s filthy propaganda back to Jacinda yesterday to show what ‘dirty politics’ natZ are up to now.

      And I hope she uses them for her return responses also.

    • weka 3.3

      Russell Brown tweeting that one of RW poll questions atm is what would make you *not vote for Ardern. Expect astroturfing memo to follow.

      • rhinocrates 3.3.1

        If you hear that question, answer “Eat a live kitten.” Before the end of the day, I guarantee Hoots will be tweeting that she eats live kittens.

    • Karen 3.4

      That’s interesting – I wondered whether that was happening because of hearing from some campaigners that people they talk to are claiming all sorts of things about Labour policy that are not true. I don’t do Facebook so haven’t seen it.

      I have also heard that National have some GOP advisors working on their campaign and spreading lies about Clinton on Facebook was one of the things they did to get Trump elected.

  4. Hongi Ika 5

    NZ First always poll 5% higher than the polls so that should take them to 13-15%

  5. cleangreen 6

    Yes this is correct.

  6. Vote and get others voting.

    Media are media and this unfair society didn’t fall out of the sky. I hope we can turn our society around or at least influence it in kinder more compassionate ways.

    We have to because if the Greens go and/or the gnats stay in we won’t have 600 empty shoes for those that have killed themselves over a year it will be 1000 shoes and rising.

  7. roy cartland 8

    Given that undecideds weren’t included, hence the left bloc wasn’t represented, AND that the margin of error was nearly 4%…

    …that poll means shit.

    We’ve got this.

  8. Chris 9

    Is there truth in reports from various sides that this latest poll was conducted using quite a different methodology ?

    • Sanctuary 9.1

      Yes, this poll was 24% a self-selected internet panel.

      • Kevin 9.1.1

        What does that mean?

        • Sanctuary 9.1.1.1

          It means you join their panel –
          http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/OUR+PANEL.html

          And presumably if you meet the right demographic mix will get surveyed for a reward.

          The flaws this can introduce are jaw-droppingly obvious, but it is common.

          The Colmar-Brunton poll is an all phone survey, same sample size, with a strong bias to Sunday evenings contact.

          A STRONG BIAS TO SUNDAY EVENINGS. Not likely to get many students or Greenies (for example) then.

          To my mind, IF there is a strong youth turnout, these polls will be shown to be well outside the margin of error inaccurate.

      • cleangreen 9.1.2

        result = false poll.

      • Pat 9.1.3

        not ‘self selected’ I’ll think you’ll find, rather a prearranged representative (theoretically) group that are likely those difficult to contact in the usual manner.

        It serves no useful purpose to ignore reality

        • Sanctuary 9.1.3.1

          It is |self-selected” insofar as you have to register to be on the panel in the first place. I imagine the panel is used to fill in gaps in the sample – “oh, we are short of men in the 18-24 range, we’ll poll a couple from the panel list then”.

          But the thing is, how many Maori voters will be on such a panel? The immediate bias is towards someone with the social and economic inclination to sign up in the first place. So the one 18-24 year old male Maori they do have on the panel may not be represent wider Maori men in that range at all.

          • Pat 9.1.3.1.1

            that is not self selected….like all polls it will suffer from the same problem of reaching a truly representative sample especially when the sample size is 1000, hence the MoE….no need to panic

      • Bearded Git 9.1.4

        Yes very suspicious of that internet panel. Random? Representative? I think not.

        • Anne 9.1.4.1

          The Right are very good at rallying their mindless troops to do anything they ask of them. I can just picture the texts, emails and phone calls encouraging them to register for the panel. We know they do this sort of thing all the time on social media including training up troops to post disruptive comments on blogging sites such as TS.

          Did anyone else note the sudden disappearance on this site of most of the rwnj trolls following the change of Labour leader? “Hold your horses folks… we will have to change our strategy. Stay away until we’ve sorted this glitch.” 🙂

      • Keepcalmcarryon 9.1.5

        Interesting.
        Media likes to assume all polls are equal and representative rather than comparing like polls with like to look for changes. This is either misleading if you are being kind – assuming the media are just thick-or disingenuous if they are doing it intentionally.

  9. Keepcalmcarryon 10

    Unbelievable horseshit from media over this. Bill Ralston even reportedly saying the last 2 polls were rogue rather than this single poll!
    It’s just an excuse to run some negative headlines on labour from an essentially bought and paid for msm.
    It’s likely nats and labour are very close as already said.
    Look for trends, wait for the next poll or 2 then we will know what was rogue or not.

  10. DH 11

    It’s depressing how easily the media influence our elections, doesn’t say a lot for our version of ‘democracy’. All it takes is one stumble, one slight indiscreet word or deed, and a party’s fortunes can change overnight.

    We tend to blame our politicians for their gaffes but it’s the media who decide whether to print them or not, and how much they’ll make of it. That’s not democracy.

    • One Two 11.1

      It is the responsibility of the electorate to arm themselves with ‘information’..

      The world is the way it is, because people have enabled and actively contributed to the negative outcomes that can be witnessed

      Media plays a part, but is not the root cause

      • greywarshark 11.1.1

        One Two
        I agree. It is so easy to blame the media. I was looking at comment round an earlier election and there was the familiar moan about the media. It is true that it should be disseminating factual and broadly based info to us all, but individually we should be searching out the facts and checking for discrepancies and fibs.

    • tc 11.2

      No it’s nationals democracy where as the shonky one said if you don’t like that answer I can go and get one you do like.

      Cherry picking ? Has the sample/method/demographics been detailed behind it ?

      As demonstrated years ago in the brilliant Yes Minister by Humphrey you can get any resuly you want if you frame the questions accordingly.

      Keep calm and carry on folks, the MSM serve the wealthy elite not the public !

  11. SpaceMonkey 12

    I read somewhere that 25% of those polled were polled online from a FlyBuys database… can anyone verify that????

    • Karen 12.1

      The Flybuys database is what the Herald uses for it’s analysis – I have seen nothing from TV3 to suggest it is the same for their panel.

      One of the things I find interesting is that they are refusing to provide the figures for refused and undecided in spite of several people asking for this information. Without this information it is impossible to assess whether the change from the last poll is in part because more people have decided or not. I could be that more Labour/ Green potential voters are undecided as they don’t know which of these two parties to pick.

  12. Siobhan 13

    New Zealand First leader Winston Peters: “I’m a very forgiving person, and so I’m carrying on ignoring you all and ignoring these polls.”

    The best thing Winstons ever said.

    Polls should stop being made public once voting starts. At that point their only purpose would be for academic study…of why polls are so inaccurate.

  13. Eco maori 14

    Yes Chin up Jacainda and James on election day the true poll will show a win for the left now come on people Jacainda has only been on the job for a few weeks so she has not had time to plan the New policy and to plan something is the winning way to run any organization.
    Not have a knee-jerk reaction to all the bull shit some MSM and some other party’s are sling and announce a crap policy that won’t work and just fucks things up that is not a wise way to run a country.

    We all no that Dairy NZ is just a voice piece for fonterra so no shit sticks to fonterra so all the statements made by Dairy NZ are made to back bill english and are a farcical bull shit scaremongering basic national plan.
    National can not enhance there mana so the only trick they have is to try and damage other people mana so primeval so people DON’T fall for that game that national is trying on us.

  14. Steve Reeves 15

    Be interested to know if something like this

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy

    has been detected by anyone (say, if you are on Facebook)…especially given names like Thiel that crop up in connection with these companies.

  15. esoteric pineapples 16

    Don’t be disheartened everybody – this is what we will do to our evil Monetarist oppressors once and for all!

  16. greywarshark 17

    Kapai Weka.

    And TOPS agrees that the mahi must go on. They want to get Winston and his ‘regressive, racist’ divisive policies right out of the running.

    They have done their calculations and in the following electorates they suggest voting for TOP candidates.

    While still hopeful of a five percent plus outcome on election night TOP believes that for either a National or Labour Government to make any progress on the important issues facing New Zealand the regressive, racist and divisive politics of Winston Peters and his party must be removed from any post-election equation.

    To that end the Party has identified 13 electorates it is standing in where, on current polling figures, the Labour and National candidates will enter parliament on their party lists.

    To ensure TOP is in a position to stop the backwards conservatism of NZF holding sway over any New Government the party is calling on National and Labour voters in the following electorates to make their local vote count by ticking top,

    Auckland Central – Mika Haka

    Mt Albert – Dan Thurston

    Manukau East – Ted Faleauto Johnson

    North Shore – Matthew Isbister

    Rodney – Brittany Owens

    Mt Roskill – Clint Ulyatt

    East Coast – Lesley Immink

    Hutt South – Richard Warwick

    Ohariu – Jessica Hammond Doube

    Wellington Central – Co-deputy leader Geoff Simmons

    Rongatai – Paddy Plunket

    Christchurch Central – Douglas Hill

    Dunedin North – Abe Grey

    http://www.top.org.nz/top_launches_stop_peters_campaign?utm_campaign=forwards&utm_medium=email&utm_source=garethmorgan#vote

    • Karen 17.1

      For a so-called evidence based party TOP are proving to be anything but. There is absolutely no chance of them winning a seat just as there is absolutely no chance of them reaching the 5% threshold. Voting has already started and they are polling 2% at best. They have become a joke.

      • greywarshark 17.1.1

        Watch it
        Isn’t there something about he who laughs last laughs longest. It ain’t over yet.

    • weka 17.2

      TOP want to be the new kings of divisive, centrist, ‘play off both sides against each other for power’ politics. Kill the old king.

      • greywarshark 17.2.1

        Might be good strategy for this battle. Each one is different.

        • weka 17.2.1.1

          All they’re going to do is waste LW votes. If they do manage to get into parliament, we will have another massive ego who thinks the sun shines out of his arse holding NZ to ransom. Morgan has some good ideas but lots of his policy is problematic and he’d be far more use to NZ as a lobbyist outside of parliament. Inside he’ll be highly entertaining, but a distraction and a block getting the serious mahi done. We’ve been here before (Bob Jones, Winston Peters, even KDC). They don’t serve democracy.

          Imagine if Morgan had thrown his $ and clout behind the climate movement in NZ. He could have done some serious change there, but no, it has to be all about him. He’s bad a listening, is anti-welfare, and not trustworthy. 6 months ago he said he would stay out of parliament unless TOP got 10 – 15% of the vote. Now on 1 or 2% he’s trying to buy his way to a seat.

      • lprent 17.2.2

        I thought that United Future had clearly demonstrated the limits to that political practice in government, and that NZ First demonstrates the limits of permanent opposition each time that they drop their number of MPs down from double digits to 2 or less.

        It just makes you a convenient target to grab votes from or as a play point in the factional battles in larger parties.

    • DoublePlusGood 17.3

      Voters in Rongotai and Wellington Central should actually be trying to get Teall Crossen and James Shaw in, not TOP candidates.

  17. Bill 18

    Good post Weka.

    If I can add (maybe controversially for some) that many in NZ Labour also want the Green Party crippled and listing in the water.

    I said that way back on Oct 1st, and just about everything I’ve seen from NZ Labour this election confirms what I was thinking back then…from triangulating and gutting Green policies, to Gower’s polling (remember that dodgy “one off” one off the back of Metiria’s crucifixion?), to deliberate maneuvers that undermine Green policy announcements in spite of a supposed MoU (First 100 days versus climate change?). And I’ll include Ardern’s clumsy attempts to appear as though she wasn’t kicking the Greens in the head in the Guyon interview yesterday…

    Just in case anyone thinks I’m being all conspiratorial and playing a blame game, I will say that although James Shaw has gone up in my estimation, he just doesn’t seem to have a head for politics.

    Merely talking of “maintaining” support in the period before Metiria was brought down, when he could have/should have been talking of increasing it. Capitulating at a campaign re-launch when he could have been signalling an intent to tear the playhouse down. Putting out a string of smaller policies when a big announcement was desperately needed to counter the “snow job” done on Metiria, Seeming to ‘beg’ for votes off the back of Gower’s latest poll (yeah, I know – perhaps the joys of editing)…

    Look. The Green Party will make it. But I doubt they’ll have the presence or political heft they would have had all things being equal. That said, I know all things are never equal in politics, that it’s a dirty game. But as long as they have the numbers to dissuade NZ Labour from going with their preferred option of NZF…

    Anyway. It looks like the next three years are going to be about taking down a Liberal government…possibly with no sympathetic presence in cabinet. Although, given that there’s going to be one almighty “pop!” as the bubble bursts in the not too distant, the cabinet thing might not matter too much.

    And the rags have been well soaked in pitch 🙂

    • SpaceMonkey 18.1

      Every interview I’ve seen James Shaw speak, he’s been sensible and forthright, a picture of the kind of politician most thinking people desire to be represented by. But once the system came for he Greens like they did, he should’ve doubled down and really stepped up to represent the disenfranchised and really reform the system. The image of him “begging” for votes last night, as Gower put it, was sad – I realise that was just framing, but plenty won’t.

      It is hope from a increasingly desperate populous that will sweep Labour into power, not unlike the same “Change” dynamic that saw Obama swept into office in the US. But hope for what? How much change did the Americans actually get? Sweet FA. If Labour do turn out to be National-lite under Jacinda, and without the Greens I am certain that is exactly what they will be, then Labour could be looking at one term, or no more than two dependent on how fractured National post-Government.

      And as for the “pop”… yep, it’s coming. It will not be good for anyone in the driving seat at the time. The criminal thing is that we can all see it coming, and there’s still time to mitigate the worst impacts of it. That our elected representatives fail to address it effectively is a true abrogation of duty from our representatives.

      • Bill 18.1.1

        Think we’re talking of two different “pops” there Spacemonkey. The “pop” I was referring to was just the sound of the “Jacindamania” bubble bursting 😉

        • SpaceMonkey 18.1.1.1

          Ah! Yes… the “pop” I was referring to is the global economy. Your “pop” is what will happen when the people realise the “hope” they had that swept Jacinda’s Labour Government into power turns out to be only that. Yes… it will be almighty and why I suspect Jacinda’s Labour Government could be one-term, no more than two.

          As usual… I hope I’m wrong.

    • greywarshark 18.2

      Keep some of that pitch back Bill. Their will be a bad feeling if something practical and future looking and kind doesn’t happen for the people. Tarring and feathering may follow.

    • weka 18.3

      There’s definitely a post-election post in me about NZ getting the government it deserves, and the Left getting the government it deserves, and NZ getting the GP it deserves 😉

      I think what you say about Labour is possible, but I also think it’s possible they will be centre left and do right by the Greens to the extent that they can get away with not doing much, if you know what I mean. Am in two minds.

      Merely talking of “maintaining” support in the period before Metiria was brought down, when he could have/should have been talking of increasing it. Capitulating at a campaign re-launch when he could have been signalling an intent to tear the playhouse down. Putting out a string of smaller policies when a big announcement was desperately needed to counter the “snow job” done on Metiria, Seeming to ‘beg’ for votes off the back of Gower’s latest poll (yeah, I know – perhaps the joys of editing)…

      Maybe, but the Greens are also making headway with business and farming and trying to balance a number of disparate things. I know that doesn’t fit the left wing narrative for the revolution but I also understand utterly why the Greens still value that. Getting into govt on a wave of Corbyn-esque, tear the playhouse down moves is attractive, but they still have to work with the business, media and political classes in the NZ (not UK) context as well as work with their core and supporter base. Not saying it can’t be done the way you suggest, but not entirely convinced that it would work either. There are useful comparisons with Corbyn etc, but the Greens are only a LW party, they’re also a Green party, and I think that changes things.

      Also, not entirely clear on the various pressures the Greens have been under internally. I’ve seen Shaw make some slips but still assess him as doing better than you do. Not sure where the caucus is at, given the consensus process.

      As for rags have been well soaked in pitch, I admit to having my own fantasy of what’s appropriate if Labour fuck us over. Post-election commentariat is certainly going to be interesting even in a best cast scenario.

  18. Frida 19

    Further donation given and have emailed local branch to offer my driving services on Election Day. leaflets delivered by kids and me over the weekend.

  19. swordfish 20

    Newsub Reid Research (same point 2014)

    2014 NRR …. 2014 Election Result
    Nat 46.7 ……..……. 47.04
    Lab 26.1 ……..…. .. 25.13
    Greens 13.0 ….…. 10.70
    NZF 5.9 ……..………. 8.66

    Let’s hope it aint Deja vu
    (ie Nats pretty much get their current NRR 47% …….. Lab ends slightly down – by 1 point – on their current 38% …….. Greens well down – over 2 points – on their 5%) …….. does nay bear thinking about

    • SpaceMonkey 20.1

      But if they have changed their methodology as asserted above… isn’t this comparing apples with oranges…?

    • Bearded Git 20.2

      The “moment of truth” is generally thought to have affected the 2014 result late in the day.

      Also you would have to hope that some of the Left will realise that to vote tactically for the Greens is the only way we will get a progressive government.

  20. Delia 21

    We actually need the Greens to care for our environment, so do not think Labour people are anti them..to me they have some of the best MPs in govt. I want a change of govt in NZ and a change of MP in Nelson and am voting accordingly.

  21. But we knew that already, so let’s move on to what we can do.

    We could try to persuade the new government to ban reporting of polls and their outcomes in the electioneering period because of the Bandwagon Effect and it’s detrimental affect it has upon our democracy.

  22. Glenn 23

    The poll that for 5 elections has correctly picked the next government picks Labour…so far.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/national-video/news/video.cfm?c_id=1503075&gal_cid=1503075&gallery_id=181674

  23. geoff 24

    An alternative narrative is that it’s simply taken the forces of capital this long to get their ducks in row since the Labour leadership change and this newshub poll result is evidence that their propaganda-machine has come up to speed.

    They’ll be saturating every outlet that can be bought. Facebook feeds, commercial radio, newspapers, the lot.

    I’ll wager the stuff homepage on the day before the election will look just the same
    as it did in 2014, like the National party homepage.

    If the left wins it’ll be a miracle, it’s almost an impossible fight to win against a network of entrenched vested interests like we have in this country.

    • eco maori 24.1

      geoff The way I cope with all the shit that’s been happening is to look for some thing positive in ones life one can always find something positive you just have to look around our World .
      We have a life style that is better than those poor 3 world nations so chin up.
      This is why I will keep on about the West helping those nations survive climate change.
      Because we are the cause of the climate changes that is affecting the 3 World nations well that’s the way I see it.

  24. Thinkerr 25

    Maybe a false hope but I’m hoping some dyed-in-the-wool Nats wont like what they’re seeing in the campaign and stay home on election day.

    Havent heard anyone talking that way though.

  25. tracey 26

    The poll shows that when the white and male and wealthy lie, it is ok cos that is just politics. When the poor and brown ie and deceive they need to be taught consequences of actions.

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