web analytics

Know when to run

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 pm, September 3rd, 2012 - 21 comments
Categories: election funding, john key, Judith Collins, privatisation, Steven Joyce - Tags:

Key has gone for a gamble again; but not the gamble some of the pundits were expecting. On the asset sales, he’s chosen flight over fight, giving up on floating Mighty River Power this year and pushed the timetable back to the next window of opportunity in 2013. But the real problems the asset sales face now isn’t Maori action, it’s the state of the economy.

Expectations are very different now from when the idea of selling infrastructure assets was first mooted in the National Party. Slowing electricity demand, pressure on electricity prices from consumer resistance and possible regulation of asset revaluations, as Geoff Bertram outlined this morning on National Radio, as well as dropping coal prices all mean that the brighter future of return to surplus via asset sales is now just a shimmering and ever-receding mirage.

On top of that is the looming referendum, which now will certainly erupt in the middle of any sale process and well before the next election. More and more New Zealanders are likely to come to the conclusion that the whole sale idea is bankrupt, and the best solution is to keep the assets in government hands.

I think MOM has turned up her toes and the asset sale process is effectively dead. It won’t  surprise me if Key  decides he  wants to put his family and his own future first, not put himself through another election, and does another runner before 2014. There will also be a lot of very disappointed National Party big donors who want their money back.

And Joyce v Collins will be a brawl; a battle of the arrogants.

As they say, it’s an ill wind.

21 comments on “Know when to run ”

  1. Carol 1

    wouldn’t be at all surprised if Key decides he doesn’t want to put his family first, do another runner and not go through another election.

    Is there a typo in this sentence, or am I just reading it wrong?

    • Anne 1.1

      It’s a typo Carol.

      He will decide to put his family first…. My bet is around April/May of next year.

      • Carol 1.1.1

        OK, thanks, Anne.

        I think Key is leaving his options open, but gambling on being able to negotiating his way out of the situation, one Iwi at a time…. or via a court case. But if that doesn’t work, and the economic context for sales doesn’t improve, he’ll take his scrap book and (anticipated) gong and run.

  2. fnjckg 3

    joyce is as incoherent as brownlee; joyce/collins-may the best man win

  3. Carol 4

    Is running when things start to turn to custard, part of JK’s MO?

    He doesn’t seem to have stuck to many jobs for more than a couple of years – the most was 7 years at Auckland Bankers Trust:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Key#Before_politics

  4. captain hook 5

    key is on the edge all right.
    he knew what the conditions were going to be but he is trying to organise the economy for the few and not the real workers.
    everybody knows the world economy is on the down slope at the moment and people in general accept that.
    recovery will come.
    what people dont accept is using the present conditions to tear up the economy on neo liberal priciples knowing that all their decisions will have to be turned a round by the next government after they have proved worthless in practice.

  5. xtasy 6

    Ahem, I do not run, I hasten and do what wisdom tells me, so to say.

    Smart bets on the currency and merchant instruments got me rich, good and hail that, but now I am OUT!

    I dread government, because people actually expect me to deliver, which I never wanted or promised to. So f off NZ, I am out now, I have my island refuge, I worked hard for it, I could not give damn shit about some unemployed, some sole mums, addicts and sick down in South Auckland. F Off, leave me alone, I want my turf and “my rights”. I am Hone Key after all.

    I will even forego my passport, it is not worth having it, since tens of thousands want to rid themselves of it every year. Do not blame me, my intentions were good and you are to blame, so negative, bad, unfaithful folk. Hate you all, JK

  6. captain hook 7

    oh and I forgot to mention that all his ministers are feeble prats.

  7. AmaKiwi 8

    The market has killed NZ infrastructure sales.

    The Facebook share offering in May was a disaster. The initial offering price was $38. It is now $18 a share. That’s a 52% LOSS.

    In August, Manchester United wanted to sell shares at $20 (USD) but the market was so weak they dropped the offering price to $14. The owners took a 30% LOSS in order to sell the shares.

    In August there were only 9 initial public offerings (IPO) on the US markets. That is miniscule. Cash is moving OUT of shares into fixed income. IPO’s are dead. They will not recover anytime soon.

    Once were warriors? Still warriors! But this time in the courts.

    Maori have fought a critical holding action that will delay the sales until they are no longer feasible.

    Well done. I owe you a debt of gratitude. I hope others appreciate what you have done for the country.

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      The Facebook share offering in May was a disaster. The initial offering price was $38. It is now $18 a share. That’s a 52% LOSS.

      In August, Manchester United wanted to sell shares at $20 (USD) but the market was so weak they dropped the offering price to $14. The owners took a 30% LOSS in order to sell the shares.

      Huge money was made in those IPOs. By the investment banks who managed the floats. Members of the ordinary investing public, hedge funds and pension funds were fleeced.

      • SpaceMonkey 8.1.1

        And the same will happen with our infrastructure assets, even if they are partially sold. Goldman Sachs in particular have a history of pumping and dumping IPOs. Facebook was just another notch on their belt… tightening around the throat of the global economy.

  8. AmaKiwi 9

    The owners of Facebook and Manchester United made big money, too, but unlike John Key they were the rightful owners of the assets they were selling.

  9. tracey 10

    Key needs to leave before the next election in case a new govt gets rid of knighthoods. If he leaves before his party can grant it. I wonder if kiwibank now gets put on tge table as the finance minister predicted a few years ago? There has onky ever been one strategy, sell assets. Without sales they have no plan.

    The planless govt rolls on.

    • Glg 10.1

      But a compliant press rolled over for this government for more than 4 years. That’s the bit I cannot understand.

      • bbfloyd 10.1.1

        “4 years”? what about the last century…? lest we forget what this blog site is named after…..Which was just one battle of many fought by the many to stop the few from keeping us “mushroomed”…..

      • mike e 10.1.2

        They are all changing their tune when John Armstrong the odt excetera are all complaining about Nactional lack of policy on child poverty you know the tide is out for National and its not coming back in.

    • Simon says 10.2

      And, more importantly, he can strike deals with the wanna’bees for his job – his support for a plum diplomatic post or SOE chairmanship.

  10. Simon says 11

    When the asset sales programme was first announced my initial thought was, ‘I’m up for some of those’. My very next thought was, ‘I wonder how they’ll get around the inevitable trouble from the Maori over water rights.”

    That well over a year later it’s clear that no-one in the Govt. had proceeded to the second thought any even moderately canny investor had on day one reveals quite staggering incompetence.

  11. Tim 12

    @ Tracey and Simon (above)
    I think the problem is that many people have actually OVER-estimated Jonky’s capabilities and intelligence. I’ve heard various boffins and commentators call him “smart” – including Mike Williams on Nine-to-Noon. I don’t disagree. I just draw a distinction on intelligence with a capability for critical thought, and ‘learned behaviour’ and habit – often based purely on ideology.
    There’s an expression ….”cunning as a sh……. r..” but since I know Nats, while capable of dishing out utter nastiness are incapable of receiving it…. let’s just say a fox is also smart – as in a cunning sense. Often what comes with it is the necessity for sheer arrogance.
    Agreed Simon – absolute incompetence. It’s what happens though when you get a bunch of unintelligent, smart, cunning sh……. r..s jostling for a position in the drainpipe. Even when the whole environment changes, they still try and live by their learned behaviour. Worse still, when there are a few in the vicinity capable of any degree of critical thought, they get neutered by the surrounding ….

    Might as well give Jonky his knighthood so he can go embarass the toffs, but look at those lining up behind. Joyce ffs! Collins! Next thing you know there’ll be a Parata or a Bennett in the running.
    And Chris Finlayson once said he’d seen ‘sense’ and signed up for this ideology. I hope he’s content being a bitter old …….. in his dotage

    • I ‘have allways thought that Key is a cunning devious slime ball.But clever no.According to today’s Herald he made a complete balls up in a speech to Hilary Clinton which if it had been missed could have had terrible consequences for NZ. Plus the rest of his speech was inaudible . Im sure he has a drink problem but I must say he hides it well.Of course that is also the sign of a drinking problem.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Clean Vehicles Bill passes first checkpoint
    The Land Transport (Clean Vehicles) Amendment Bill will help New Zealand drive down transport emissions by cleaning up the light vehicle fleet, Transport Minister Michael Wood says. The Bill passed its first reading today and will establish the legislative framework for key parts of the Government’s Clean Car Package, including ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Funding boost supports ongoing Māori COVID-19 response
    The Government is responding to the need by whānau Māori and Māori Health providers to support their ongoing work responding to COVID-19 and to continue increasing rates of Māori vaccination, Associate Minister for Health (Māori Health), Peeni Henare and Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson announced today.   This increased ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Significant increase to COVID-19 penalties
    Penalties for breaches of COVID-19 orders are set to significantly increase from early November 2021 to better reflect the seriousness of any behaviour that threatens New Zealand’s response to the virus, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Throughout this Delta outbreak we’ve seen the overwhelming majority of people doing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill returns to Parliament
    The Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill has returned to Parliament for its second reading in an important step towards giving enforcement agencies greater power to protect New Zealanders from terrorist activity. “The Bill addresses longstanding gaps in our counter terrorism legislation that seek to protect New Zealanders and make us safer,” Justice ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Joint Statement: New Zealand and Australian Trade Ministers
    Hon Damien O'Connor MP, New Zealand Minister for Trade and Export Growth, and Hon Dan Tehan MP, Australian Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment, met virtually on Monday 20 September to advance trans-Tasman cooperation under the Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement (CER). CER is one of the most ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Prime Minister’s Post Cabinet Press Conference/COVID-19 Update opening statement
    ***Please check against delivery***   E te tī, e te tā, nau mai rā [To all, I bid you welcome]   As you will have seen earlier, today there are 22 new community cases to report; three of which are in Whakatiwai in the Hauraki area, and the remainder in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Major milestones for Māori COVID-19 vaccine rollout as new campaign launches
    Whānau Ora and Associate Health (Māori Health) Minister Peeni Henare acknowledges two major milestones in the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination programme for Māori. “I am very pleased to announce more than 50 percent of eligible Māori have received their first dose and 25 per cent are now fully vaccinated,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government funding to fight infectious diseases
    $36 million for research into Covid-19 and other infectious diseases The investment will improve our readiness for future pandemics Research will focus on prevention, control, and management of infectious diseases The Government’s investing in a new Infectious Diseases Research Platform to boost Aotearoa New Zealand’s Covid-19 response and preparedness for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Quarantine-free travel with Australia to remain suspended for a further 8 weeks
    Suspension to be reviewed again mid to late November Decision brought forward to enable access from Australia to first tranche of around 3000 rooms in MIQ Air New Zealand working at pace to put on more flights from Australia from October    The suspension of quarantine-free travel (QFT) with Australia has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Extra support for Ethnic Communities to share vaccination information
    Extra support is being made available to Ethnic Communities to help them share COVID-19 vaccination information within their communities, Minister for Diversity, Inclusion and Ethnic Communities Priyanca Radhakrishnan said. “We know we need to get every eligible person in New Zealand vaccinated. A fund being launched today will allow for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • School holidays remain unchanged for Auckland region
    School holidays in Auckland will continue to be held at the same time as the rest of the country, starting from Saturday, 2 October, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “I’ve carefully considered advice on the implications of shifting the dates and concluded that on balance, maintaining the status quo ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government continues crackdown on gangs and organised crime
    Operation Tauwhiro extended until March 2022 Since it was launched in February, Operation Tauwhiro has resulted in:   987 firearms seized $4.99 million in cash seized 865 people charged with a firearms-related offence Gangs and organised crime groups will continue to be relentlessly targeted with the extension of Police’s successful ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech to Body Positive 'HIV Treatments Update Seminar 2021'
    E ngā mana E ngā reo E ngā iwi Tēnā koutou katoa Ka huri ki ngā mana whenua o te rohe nei. Tēnā koutou. He mihi hoki ki a tatou kua tau mai nei I raro I te kaupapa o te rā. Nō reira tēnā koutou katoa Acknowledgements It’s a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Power bill changes bring fairness to charges
    A key recommendation of an independent panel to make electricity charges fairer across all households will be put in place, the Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods has announced. “Phasing out the regulations on ‘low-use’ electricity plans will create a fairer playing field for all New Zealanders and encourage a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ economy’s strong momentum will support rebound from Delta outbreak; COVID fund replenished
    The economy showed strong momentum in the period leading up to the recent Delta COVID-19 outbreak, which bodes well for a solid economic rebound, Grant Robertson said. GDP rose 2.8 percent in the June quarter, following on from a 1.4 percent increase in the previous March quarter. This was a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Projects create benefits into the future
    Making a well-known lake swimmable and helping to halt the decline of the endangered hoiho/yellow-eyed penguins are among a suite of new projects being supported by the Government’s Jobs for Nature programme across the southern South Island, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “It’s no secret that many of our most ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Opening statement for Whāriki Indigenous Small Business Roundtable
      Kei ngā tōpito e wha o te āo e rere ana te mihi maioha ki a koutou nō tawhiti, nō tata mai e tāpiri ana ki tēnei taumata kōrero mo te ao hokohoko arā mā ngā pākihi mo ngā iwi taketake Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa – Pai Mārire.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New members appointed to Kāpuia
    The Government is adding four additional members to Kāpuia, the Ministerial Advisory Group on the Government’s Response to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terrorist attack on Christchurch mosques. “I’m looking forward to having Pamela MacNeill, Huia Bramley, Melani Anae and Katherine Dedo  join Kāpuia and contribute to this group’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Timeline confirmed for Emissions Reductions Plan
    Cabinet has agreed to begin consulting on the Emissions Reduction Plan in early October and require that the final plan be released by the end of May next year in line with the 2022 Budget, the Minister of Climate Change, James Shaw confirmed today. “Cabinet’s decision allows organisations and communities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Pay parity pathway for early learning teachers confirmed
    Pay parity conditions and higher funding rates for education and care services will come into force on 1 January, 2022, Minister of Education Chris Hipkins confirmed today. The Government signalled this work in Budget 2021. “From 1 January, 2022, centres opting into the scheme will receive government funding and be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation Conference 2021
    Kia Ora tatau katoa.   Ka tuku mihi ki nga nēhi, He pou Hauora o Aotearoa, E ora ai tatou.   Whakatau mai  I runga i te kaupapa o te ra Te NZNO conference.   Tena koutou tena koutou Tena tatou katoa   Good morning, and thank you inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government investment in farmer-led catchment groups sweeps past 150 mark
    171 catchment groups have now been invested in by the Government 31 catchment groups in the Lower North Island are receiving new support More than 5,000 farmers are focussed on restoring freshwater within a generation through involvement in catchment groups  Government investment in on-the-ground efforts by farmers to improve land ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Fight to protect kauri on track
    The Government is pitching in to help vital work to protect nationally significant kauri forests in Auckland, Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says. “Ensuring the survival of these iconic trees for future generations means doing everything we can to prevent the potential spread of kauri dieback disease,” Kiri Allan said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Joint statement of Mr Bernard Monk; Hon Andrew Little, Minister Responsible for Pike River Re-entry,...
    [Note: The Parties have agreed on terms to fully and finally settle the proceeding and will jointly issue the below statement.] At the heart of this litigation are the lives of the 29 men tragically lost at the Pike River mine on 19 November 2010 and to whom we pay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More financial support for businesses
    Today’s decision to keep Auckland in a higher COVID Alert Level triggers a third round of the Wage Subsidy Scheme which will open for applications at 9am this Friday. “The revenue test period for this payment will be the 14th to the 27th of September. A reminder that this is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Aotearoa New Zealand provides further humanitarian support for Afghanistan
    Aotearoa New Zealand is providing a further $3 million in humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today.  “There is significant humanitarian need in Afghanistan, with the crisis disproportionately affecting women and girls,” said Nanaia Mahuta. The UN has estimated that 80% of the quarter of a million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Innovative te reo prediction tool announced in Te Wiki o Te Reo Māori
    A new Māori language prediction tool will play a key role in tracking our te reo Māori revitalisation efforts, Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson announced today. He Ara Poutama mō te reo Māori (He Ara Poutama) can forecast the number of conversational and fluent speakers of te reo Māori ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further Government support for people to access food and essential items
    The Government is responding to need for support in Auckland and has committed a further $10 million to help people access ongoing food and other essential items, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni announced today. This latest tranche is targeted at the Auckland region, helping providers and organisations to distribute ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Half a million Pfizer vaccines from Denmark
    The Government has secured an extra half a million doses of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines from Denmark that will start arriving in New Zealand within days, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “This is the second and larger agreement the Government has entered into to purchase additional vaccines to meet the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Inland Revenue providing essential COVID support for businesses
    Inland Revenue is seeing increased demand for Resurgence Support Payments and other assistance schemes that it administers, but is processing applications quickly, Revenue Minister David Parker said today. David Parker said the Resurgence Support Payment, the Small Business Cashflow (loan) Scheme and the Wage Subsidy are available at the same ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand marks 20th anniversary of 9/11 attacks
    New Zealand is expressing unity with all victims, families and loved ones affected by the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks, and all terrorist attacks around the world since, including in New Zealand. “Saturday marks twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, which killed nearly 3,000 people ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Speech to SPREP Environment Ministers
    Talofa Honourable Ulu of Tokelau Faipule Kelihiano Kalolo Tēnā koutou katoa and warm Pacific greetings from Aotearoa to your excellencies, ladies and gentlemen. The new science released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on 8 August paints an alarming picture of the projected impacts of climate change on the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Additional Resurgence Support Payments to support business
    Businesses affected by higher Alert Levels will be able to apply for further Resurgence Support Payments (RSP). “The Government’s RSP was initially intended as a one-off payment to help businesses with their fixed costs, such as rent. Ministers have agreed to provide additional payments to recognise the effects of an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • More Dawn Raids scholarships announced
    Details of the ‘Manaaki New Zealand Short Term Training Scholarships’, a goodwill gesture that follows the Government’s apology for the Dawn Raids of the 1970s, were released today by Pacific Peoples Minister Aupito William Sio. “These scholarships that are targeted to the Pacific will support the kaupapa of the Dawn Raids’ ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • One-way quarantine-free travel for RSE workers starting in October
      One-way quarantine-free travel for Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) workers from Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu starts in October New requirement for RSE workers to have received their first vaccination pre-departure, undertake Day 0 and Day 5 tests, and complete a self-isolation period of seven days, pending a negative Day 5 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt boosts Pacific suicide prevention support
    Applications have opened for the Pacific Suicide Prevention Community Fund as the Government acts to boost support amid the COVID delta outbreak. “We know strong and connected families and communities are the most important protective factor against suicide and this $900,000 fund will help to support this work,” Health Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt parks the expiry of licenses, WoFs and regos
    As a result of the Delta outbreak, driver licences, Warrants of Fitness (WoFs), Certificates of Fitness (CoFs), vehicle licences (‘regos’) and licence endorsements that expired on or after 21 July 2021 will be valid until 30 November 2021, Transport Minister Michael Wood has announced today. “While this extension won’t officially ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • COVID-19 community fund to provide support for vulnerable women and girls
    Minister for Women Jan Tinetti today announced a $2 million community fund that will provide support for women and girls adversely affected by COVID-19. “We know that women, particularly those who are already vulnerable, are disproportionally affected by the kind of economic disruption caused by COVID-19,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Next phase of support for Fiji’s COVID-19 response announced
    A further NZ$12 million of support for Fiji’s COVID-19 response has been announced by Foreign Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta today. The package builds on previous tranches of assistance Aotearoa New Zealand has provided to Fiji, totalling over NZ$50 million. “Fiji remains in a very challenging position in their response to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Robotic asparagus harvester aimed at addressing industry challenges
    The Government is backing a $5 million project to develop a commercial-scale autonomous robotic asparagus harvester, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. The Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures fund (SFF Futures) is contributing $2.6 million to the project. Project partner Robotics Plus Limited (RPL) will build on a prototype asparagus ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago