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Labour list announced

Written By: - Date published: 2:06 pm, June 23rd, 2014 - 189 comments
Categories: election 2014, labour - Tags:

The Labour Party list has been announced. More details to follow!

1 David Cunliffe
2 David Parker
3 Grant Robertson
4 Annette King
5 Jacinda Ardern
6 Nanaia Mahuta
7 Phil Twyford
8 Clayton Cosgrove
9 Chris Hipkins
10 Sue Moroney
11 Andrew Little
12 Louisa Wall
13 David Shearer
14 Su’a William Sio
15 Maryan Street
16 Phil Goff
17 Moana Mackey
18 Kelvin Davis
19 Meka Whaitiri
20 Megan Woods
21 Raymond Huo
22 Damien O’Connor
23 Priyanca Radhakrishnan
24 Iain Lees-Galloway
25 Rachel Jones
26 David Clark
27 Carol Beaumont
28 Poto Williams
29 Carmel Sepuloni
30 Tamati Coffey
31 Jenny Salesa
32 Liz Craig
33 Deborah Russell
34 Willow-Jean Prime
35 Jerome Mika
36 Tony Milne
37 Virginia Andersen
38 Claire Szabo
39 Michael Wood
40 Arena Williams
41 Hamish McDouall
42 Anjum Rahman
43 Sunny Kaushal
44 Christine Greer
45 Penny Gaylor
46 Janette Walker
47 Richard Hills
48 Shanan Halbert
49 Anahila Suisuiki
50 Clare Wilson
51 James Dann
52 Kelly Ellis
53 Corie Haddock
54 Jamie Strange
55 Katie Paul
56 Steven Gibson
57 Chao-Fu Wu
58 Paul Grimshaw
59 Tracey Dorreen
60 Tofik Mamedov
61 Hikiera Toroa
62 Hugh Tyler
63 Susan Elliot
64 Simon Buckingham

189 comments on “Labour list announced ”

  1. Ant 1

    IMP signal away?

    Labour get a lot of grief for being stale, but I reckon thats crap, they’ve done well with managing a balance between experience and rejuvenation.

    • nadis 1.1

      Really? First new potential MP is #23 on the list……..

      • Barnsley Bill 1.1.1

        Will need north of 32% to get number 23 in.

        • Crunchtime

          How did you get that figure? Most electorate MPs are list MPs too (Mallard and Curran being two of few exceptions), so I think the first 30 on the list stand a good chance of being in if Labour’s vote share is 32%.

          • Barnsley Bill

            Maths. You need to factor in the MP’s who either failed to make the list or took themselves off.

          • Bearded Git

            32% should get around 40 MP’s (32/97×120). This assumes 3% wasted vote.

  2. King Kong 2

    I really feel I should read this list with sombre church bells tolling in the background.

    It has the feel of the victim list of a horrendous maritime disaster.

    • He’s running seat-only to give other colleagues a better chance on the list (according to Twitter.)

      • Barnsley Bill 3.1.1

        How does that help others on the list? If he wins his electorate (which he is widely expected to) it would not whether he was number 1, 10 or one hundred and eleventy seven. Him and Curran missing is a signal from the leader that it is time to refresh.

        • You’d have to ask him!

          • Tiger Mountain

            What do you care Barnacle Bill? the Labour Party has made it’s list via party processes end of story.

            The rest of us that want to deny Key a third term now need to help get the unenrolled enrolled and voting and the enrolled non voters voting. That is something you really should be concerned about.

            • Barnsley Bill

              I am concerned because even though I expect the nats to get back in without too much trouble I want Kelvin Davies to get back in as well. We need him in parliament for the Far North.

              • Chris

                If the Far North needs Kelvin Davis then I guess the Far North will vote him in. And if the Far North doesn’t vote him in then I guess they don’t need him?

    • greywarbler 3.2

      No Mallard or did I miss him still the second time? I thought he was looking at Speaker? Also No Captain Chesney Sullenberger on Imperator Fish’s last list of possible Labour ..desirables. Have to look him up. IF had a very creditable list of possibilities, though I think most are dead. Probably as lively as some who have been in Labour in recent years. Better now I think.

  3. mickysavage 4

    Oops lprent bet me to it! Have pulled my post. Some comments tho …

    After a long and somewhat difficult birth the Labour list has now been announced.

    Interesting that Kelvin Davis is at 17 and Priyanca Radhakrishnan, a member of the Indian community which is of considerable importance to Labour is at 23. Rachel Jones from Tauranga at 25 has also been highly placed. Other newcomers to do well are Tamati Coffey (30), Doctor Liz Craig (32) and lecturer Deborah Russell (33).

    • ‘Twasn’t lprent. 😀

      Great to see some fresh faces in easily winnable positions. Priyanca is a fantastic candidate, Tamati’s shown some great organising skills, Liz and Deborah bring some solid intellectual muscle. It’s got me all inspired!

      • mickysavage 4.1.1

        Cheers Steph!

        The gender mix is interesting. By my calculations Labour hits equality from about 30% of the party vote up. And from 37% women will be in a majority if electorate seats go the way I presume they do.

        Shock horror! Some will be distraught at the prospect that women will be equally represented!

        • Tamati

          It’s extremely difficult to predict these things, especially with the boundary changes. Labour potentially gain a handful of list seats, essentially blocking newcomers onto the list. Stuart Nash has every chance in Napier, as does Tony Milne in Chch central. Cosgrove could easily win back his own seat, and anything is possible is the Maori seats. They pretty much put Kelston in the bank.

          • mickysavage

            Yep right you are. I left out Tirikatene and Nash and Faafoi. If Nash wins will need 36%+ to reach equality.

            • Tamati

              I think even Tamaki Makarau, is looking like it will return to Labour.

            • The Lone Haranguer

              Is that because you believe that they will fail to win their electorate seats?

              • mickysavage

                Not at all, did the calculations quickly and forgot to put them in.

                I predict that Labour will win all currently held seats and pick up Kelston, Maungakiekie, Tamaki Makaurau and Christchurch Central. And if you wanted me to pick a few blotters they are Papakura and Northcote.

    • Anne 4.2

      Well, what a contrast to 2011!

      I remember wringing my hands in despair then, but they’ve got it right this time. I see the North Shore candidate, Claire Szabo comes in at 38. This is her first attempt so a good placing for her. She might even make it into parliament. She is definitely someone to watch in the future.

      • Matthew Hooton 4.2.1

        I don’t mean to be unkind, but what the fuck are you talking about? At 38, she has not the slightest chance of making to parliament, or even coming remotely close

        • dimebag russell

          someone pull your chain eh hooton.
          how do you know she cant win?
          who gives you the inside dope?
          why so angry?
          I know. you are one of those types of people that any party never picks because they know that they open the door for bloody nose.
          so shut up.

          • Matthew Hooton

            I think it would take Labour to get to about 40% for #38 to be elected so Claire has absolutely no chance. Which is a shame, because she seems quite good compared with many of those ahead of her.

            • dimebag russell

              whats it to you?
              are you going to vote for her?

            • Shrubbery

              So, a right to left swing of what, 10%? Just requires a few people to exercise some critical thinking for a change and it’s eminently possible.

              • Matthew Hooton

                that would be a massive swing in less than 90 days

                • Bluey

                  It’s only 2300 per day, not that massive.

                  • blue leopard

                    …and 10% is based on the last RM which is one of the lowest poll results Labour have received from RM all year – so it may be that 10% is not the amount that Labour needs to lift in order to receive 38%….

              • Colonial Viper

                Why do you think Labour is going to be the main beneficiary of any swing away from National? I’m interested that the Right Wing have already done the math on the Labour list %’s though.

                • Shrubbery

                  Because they are the centre-right party closest to the left flank of National?
                  Also, Matthew, if right-wing people get to hallucinate about scenarios like Act getting more than 1 MP, so can the left state that 45% for labour should be easy as.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Because they are the centre-right party closest to the left flank of National?

                    The weird thing is, an awful lot of people seem to be planning to leave National and go straight to Greens, without stopping or passing Labour.

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      That’s not weird. A large percentage of Auckland green party voters voted for Paula Benefit and Nikki Kaye in the electorates. Tory enablers, doncha just hate’em?!?

                    • Colonial Viper

                      love it haha

              • thechangeling

                A 7% swing was all it would take under FPP. Why would it be more under MMP if a leftward swing would logically position some of that swing to the Greens and Mana too?

            • the pigman

              Aren’t the back-handed compliments getting old? Think that anyone is remotely moved by them or flattered by your slimy spasms?

              Your commentary has become impossible to distinguish from that of ImperatorFish’s “Martin Hooterson”. I wonder, was there a tipping point when you realised you’d become a caricature of yourself?

              • Anne

                Hooton is a bullshit merchant. He’s one of those arrogant – imagine they come from superior stock born to rule – types who went to Kings School and Kings College. He’s 30 something and thinks he’s an oracle on all things political.

                If you had heard him this morning on the RNZ political spot you would know what I mean. His spinning was so frenetic he must have gone spinning out of the studio and was well into the streets before he could slow down and stop. Here’s a couple of examples:

                The Labour Party is unable to handle two issues at once. Can’t deal with the Donghua Liu revelations and the List process at the same time.

                The man ban means that after Parker the next six on the list will be women. Little, Huo and Davis are all “toast” – gone… finished… kaput.

                And one for Standardistas:

                Bloggers on left wing sites think that if Colin Craig gets into parliament he will be either Minister of Science or Minister of Education – intoned in a derogatory way as though we are a bunch of morons. Seems like he doesn’t understand tongue-in-cheek quips.

                Having said that he’s right. It’s unlikely Claire Szabo at 38 will make it. But its possible. Baby Hooton wouldn’t appreciate the subtlety.

                • Sacha

                  Any party that believes it can afford to marginalise someone as talented as Claire in favour of some decidedly unimpressive incumbents is in deep trouble.

                  • Anne

                    It’s Claire’s first outing as a political candidate Sacha. Most are expected to have at least one campaign (be it national or local) under their belt before making it into one of the high list spots. In the FPP days they were given National Party seats in which to gain experience. If she sticks with it I have no doubt her placing on the list will be much higher in 2017.

        • Clemgeopin

          Anything is possible. Labour is now at about 32% on the average this year. If people like their policies and yet to be announced policies then just 0.5% progress each week for the next 13 remaining weeks could get them to 32+0.5×13=39%.

          Personally I think that Sept 20, Labour and National will be both around 42%

        • Clemgeopin

          Anything is possible. Labour is now at about 32% on the average this year. If people like their policies and yet to be announced policies then just 0.5% progress each week for the next 13 remaining weeks could get them to 32+0.5×13=39%.

          Personally I think that by Sept 20, Labour and National will be both around 42%

    • lprent 4.3

      Nah. I am in court. I did set up the imperator fish one earlier.

      • Tracey 4.3.1

        Did you get a copy of julian miles submissions, your best friend over at laudfinem have them on their site where they wax lyrical about you

        • lprent

          Listening to miles now. Very interesting.

          The legal idiots at LF always love me.

          • Tracey

            !they also ignored the other authors here who wrote that a blog was news disseminator and therefore a journalist.

  4. dimebag russell 5

    it looks like the team new zealand needs to lead it into the next 9 years which are bound to be difficult waters.
    congratulations to the party for a job well done.

  5. Barnsley Bill 6

    Where is the danger zone likely to be. I read elsewhere that on current polling they might only get a handful of listers. Does kelvin davies position mean they are going to fight Hone for the northern Maori seat?

    • gingercrush 6.1

      6-8 list MPs probably. So the danger zone is from No. 17 onwards

      • Barnsley Bill 6.1.1

        Which puts Kelvin right on the edge. If polls don’t firm he could be job hunting again soon. Which in my opinion as a Northland resident would be a terrible shame.
        They have to go hard on helping him win his seat.

        • lprent

          Faux concern? OK that is new. Must point it out to Scott.

          • Barnsley Bill

            lprent. Sigh. visited the North lately? We need all the help we can get up here. Be it red or blue. Kelvin enjoys cross party respect in the Far North.

            • One Anonymous Bloke

              Just as many left wingers support Paul Goldsmith.

            • lprent

              I like Kelvin. But obviously Hone enjoys just as much inside the Maori electorate.

              Part of the problem is that kelvin didn’t put himself up for the region 1 list. If he had, then I suspect he would have outranked Jerome.

    • Te Reo Putake 6.2

      Kelvin is almost certainly in on the list if he doesn’t win the electorate. The list ‘marginals’ are from around the 30th place and up, as I read it. Labour has 34 MP’s now, 12 from the list. If I read it right, there are 21 electorate MP’s in the top 30, plus Mallard who’s not standing on the list.

      • Barnsley Bill 6.2.1

        More than mallard not on list.. Kris whatsis face and Curran plus one of the Maori seat MP’s. They get back in and the list safety point moves further north.

        • Clemgeopin

          You sound like an agent from the enemy camp. The Labour list is none of your business. Bugger off to your own camp, you nasty nitwit.

  6. Tom Jackson 7

    I hope Tamati Coffey gets in. He’s a good candidate.

    • gingercrush 7.1

      Extremely doubtful he’ll make it. Anyone relying on the list to get them in will really be pulling for Cosgrove to retake Waimakariri.

      Though him winning an electorate does take a list seat away.

    • Anthony B'stard 7.2

      He seems to be way to nice and gentle to make it in the world of politics. Good luck to him, will be interesting to see how he gets on.

    • Matthew Hooton 7.3

      No chance. Labour would need 33.33%

      • blue leopard 7.3.1

        They got 34 seats last election.

        P.s when are you going to do an appearance on TV with Hone? I really enjoyed seeing your lies get systematically and completely undermined. Hone really wiped the floor with you. So when can I look forward to this year’s version?

        • Anthony B'stard

          Last election they had Phil Goff – this time they have David Cunliffe.

          • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill)

            Exactly, therefore the chance of of gaining more of the vote is greater.

      • Mike the Savage One 7.3.2

        Mr Hooton, you are the one that I have heard again today, spouting off your “judgments” about who of any new Labour candidates will not get in, as you have “cemented” in Labour’s prospects to get only 23 percent of the vote, given that last Fairfax poll that you love so much. You do not even take Farrar’s approach, at least looking at a range of polls over time.

        Here you are trying to argue the same, saying who has “no chance”, as Labour would in your view never get across certain percentages.

        What do you get paid to sell your spin to the mainstream media out there? I also heard that you worked for Donghua Liu yourself at some stage. You revealed this on the “political commentators” today on Nine to Noon on Radio NZ National.

        You can come and try to put up your nonsense here, nobody believes any of your tricks and endless spin, working for your friend John Key and the Nats who you support loyally.

        So tell us, who is behind the claims that Liu made certain disputed “donations” to Labour? You will know, as you are an insider in the machinations and schemes behind the scene. Who is the spreader of rumours, and lies, and of misinformation?

        I cannot believe they give you credit to comment on anything, given your bias, and Duncan Garner gave you too much air, alleging certain Labour MPs refused to be put onto the list, for supposedly not wanting anything to do with “Cunliffe’s list”. Again you are trying to spread dissent and divisions, and suspicions.

        All Labour needs to do is ignore persons like you, and simply prepare their strategy, and put all resources and efforts in getting at least 35 percent of the vote, and you will have to pay more taxes after a new government is formed after 20 September, as you and others in your social circles should!

        Pay your due share then, that is what we want, and stop working as the propagandist for Key and National.

      • Quince 7.3.3

        Which is what, like 50/50 to happen on election night?

      • Skinny 7.3.4

        Hooton my calculations has Labour gathering at least 38% of the party vote. we will get the vote out despite your dire predictions (propaganda) the previous non voters will turn out in force. The Left have a mobilised team this election. Spin all you like the result is predictable 🙂

        • Colonial Viper

          Uh…38% is far too high to be likely…I’d put it at just a 1/200 chance at this point.

          36%: 1/25

          34%: 1/5 = highest likely outcome I think

          • blue leopard


            I really think you are taking the polls much too much at face value

            Nov 11-18 Roy Morgan had National at 53% and Labour at 24.5% in the next week Labour ‘jumped’ 5 points ( and National ‘dropped’ 5).

            The margin of error, remember, is 3% and that is based on a sample size of 1000. These latest RM polls aren’t even that large – (845 ppl) – 5% of which didn’t name a party. This actually makes the margin of error likely to be larger.

            This means that Labour could actually quite possibly be near 34% right now – definitely likely to have been sitting higher than what those Roy Morgans have been citing. Say they are around 33% – you think that it is most likely that Labour can only gain 1% over the campaign??

            Additionally if the trend of RM follows its usual course Labour are about to close in on National again too. (The two parties have a trend of coming together then moving apart and they have been moving apart for quite some time now)

            Link to RM http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5639-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-june-19-2014-201406190123

            Some of the points I make here are based on this easy to read pretty short article:


            • Colonial Viper

              The margin of error, remember, is 3% and that is based on a sample size of 1000. These latest RM polls aren’t even that large – (845 ppl) – 5% of which didn’t name a party. This actually makes the margin of error likely to be larger.

              This means that Labour could actually quite possibly be near 34% right now – definitely likely to have been sitting higher than what those Roy Morgans have been citing. Say they are around 33% – you think that it is most likely that Labour can only gain 1% over the campaign??

              Hi BL.

              I appreciate your points as they might apply to each individual poll. But when the last ten or so Roy Morgans in a row have ALL been under 34%, to say that the real number COULD be near 34% now if we just added on the margin of error, is too optimistic. (You might equally say that Labour’s true value after the last poll might be sitting closer to 25%…)

              • blue leopard

                Well if that dratted RM poll put their information in a more accessible way…ah I found one here:


                The results for Labour have ranged between 28.5 – 33 since the beginning of the year most commonly around 31-32. As that article I linked to says: dropping within the margin of error and rising within the margin of error is not statistically significant. I think it is fair to say they are going to be trending around 31 rather than 25 – which means they could be receiving as much as 34% support some of those times.

                It is just that if you believe the worst – this is the type of thing that is really affecting the way people make decisions. It is entirely possible that they have more support than what RM are reflecting – I accept that it may be at a lower ebb just now – but I don’t think you should set that bar so low – considering where they have been trending all year and considering the size of the sample, and undecideds RM are using.

                Sending out the message that they are on the lowest possible amount may be good for the MPs to get them motivated – but for us reading it can be actually quite demotivating and it really might not be the case at all – I think it is more likely that Labour have more than the two lowest results RM have come up with.

                • Colonial Viper

                  I think I gave Labour a 1/5 chance of hitting 34% and a 1/25 chance of hitting 35%.

                  A 6/25 chance of getting 34% or over isn’t bad.

                  I think it is fair to say they are going to be trending around 31 rather than 25

                  Yes I think the true value of Labour support is sitting around 31% right now. And I think Cunliffe will do very well in the TV debates which will push that number up. (In contrast, if Shearer was going into the TV debates my bet would have been on those numbers going down). BUT I also think that IMP, GP and NZF are going to take a very solid share of votes.

                  • blue leopard

                    As far as IMP and GP goes I hope so (re solid share of the votes 🙂 ) I do have some respect for Winston but wouldn’t like to see NZF get much more than 6%.

                    It is hard to tell how Labour will fare due to the ‘climate’ of the media. I agree Cunliffe will do well in debates. He just seems so much more solid than old Key in character too that it is hard for me not to imagine that the more NZers see of Cunliffe the more trust they will feel in him over Key – however this media issue is like a ‘random’ aspect that confuses the signals and makes it much more difficult to predict peoples’ responses.

      • Colonial Viper 7.3.5

        No chance. Labour would need 33.33%

        Always appreciate you bringing value to The Standard, Matthew.

        (Standardistas – I believe MH has calculated in the Mallards and Currans of the world who are not on the list but will very likely make it in as MPs, effectively displacing candidates who are on the list. MH: have you included calculations for any other electorate turnovers to Labour?).

        • Bluey

          Bizarre, get your shit together.

        • Matthew Hooton

          Waimakariri and Napier. I think Labour will win 28 electorates. That’s why pretty much no one will get in on the list (unless it improves it’s party vote a lot).

  7. Barnsley Bill 8

    cannot believe Tony Milne is below Willow Jean Prime. What more does he have to do? Willow is a first term councillor in the Far North.

    • lprent 8.1

      A damn impressive one. I saw her at the Auckland list conference. She also ran a very competent and successful campaign to build a team and to get that position.

      You’ll find that generally Labour favours people who won positions and built teams to do it. Trumps people who built teams.

      • Tamati 8.1.1

        If Tony Milne doesn’t win back Chch Central, then he doesn’t deserve to be an MP. I don’t think he would be too worried about his list place, only has to find 50 or so votes.

      • phillip ure 8.1.2

        native affairs archives will have a debate they screened a few weeks ago of young unelected maori..

        ..and prime was on there..

        ..she was/is impressive..

        ..and should be in parliament..

      • Barnsley Bill 8.1.3

        Evidence in the North is the opposite of that, but not the forum to pick a fight today. Needless to say it is an unwinnable seat for Labour and even a brainless oaf could win in a blue jacket (and indeed did at the last election), but as a local rate payer I am not happy that somebody who has been a councillor for less than a year and has done nothing but hoover up as many entity fees as possible has now decided to abandon a council seat that she claimed to be a lifelong ambition to try and slip into Wellington.

        • Te Reo Putake

          Christ, if only Key had abandoned NZ a year after fulfilling his lifelong ambition to be PM …

        • Tiger Mountain

          Virtually forever the Far North has needed an MP to represent its people in Wellington rather than vice versa. Ex copper Sabin is an oaf alright, there are too many East coast retirees in the North and others influenced by the good old boys and tradie/farm networks that vote tory out of bad habit.

          Willow-Jean is running a good positive campaign so far. The last few Far North Labour candidates have been imports and she is a local.

          • Barnsley Bill

            I have noticed the oversized posters up all over the place a few weeks before it is legal to do so… Nothing changes.
            And forget blaming the retirees. We have a very high proportion of voters on the Maori roll. Want to displace National in the Far North? Get rid of the Maori seats.
            And I agree re Sabin, tried really hard to hold my nose and vote for him at the last election. Couldn’t do it.

            • Colonial Viper

              but as a local rate payer I am not happy that somebody who has been a councillor for less than a year and has done nothing but hoover up as many entity fees as possible has now decided to abandon a council seat that she claimed to be a lifelong ambition

              It’s a shit thing to do to your supporters and indicates a certain mix of political ambition and hasty judgement.

              • Skinny

                Yip I read her passionate pitch for local council, and hello not long after being elected she abandons that heart felt pledge. Shame on the party for electing her for the being a party to for her connection to scumbag Tallys. We gave over 5 k when they were locked out. Labour beltway wake tfu!

                • JK

                  I’ve heard that once Willow-Jean got onto the council, she realised that there is not much real power there to do things to change the way lives are lived in the north.
                  So Parliament, to her, was the place where the real power lies to make changes which will really make the north move. W-J IS impressive and for the first time in my memory is bringing an organisation of people into Labour working for those changes.
                  Don’t knock her. She’s doing a grand job. And she’ll help bring in quite a large number of those missing Labour voters we need to have voting Party vote for us, so Labour is the major player in a new coaliation government.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    I’ve heard that once Willow-Jean got onto the council, she realised that there is not much real power there to do things to change the way lives are lived in the north.


                    well that actually says a whole lot more bad things about her judgement.

                    How much “real power” does she think that she will have as a bottom run backbencher in Parliament? And when she realises after a whole 10 months that the answer is “fuck all” where will she be off to next?

                    So Parliament, to her, was the place where the real power lies to make changes which will really make the north move.

                    Yeah sure, once you’re Finance Minister maybe. Or get the power to green light a few mines or offshore wells.

    • Skinny 8.2

      Well word is she won’t be getting many Affco ( scumbag lock out Tally’s) workers votes up North considering her partner is a low life Boss there!

      • Kamyam 8.2.1

        Skinny, I would argue that she is widely respected and considered highly effective within council, and that running as an MP would allow her to turn her talents towards the larger issues facing the region.

        I just checked her facebook page and under the info it says “I love Northland! My real ambition is to work with you, the people of the Far North, to create an exciting and sustainable future for us all.”

        Seems like she’s taking her commitment seriously and is LITERALLY stepping up.

        Also in relation to her partner, his name is Dion prime and he is a high school science teacher. Not an AFFCO boss.

        Don’t believe me, you can see it for yourself at


        Getting some facts straight would go a long way towards having people take you seriously. ; )

  8. Chris 9

    Where’s the lawyer guy from the Kapiti Coast, Peter Foster? I thought he was supposed to be one of Labour’s big new hopes?

  9. Lucas Moore 10

    What percentage of the party vote will, labour need, so those in the top 40 can all
    get in to parliament?

    • Bearded Git 10.1

      Lucas, my understanding is that 32.3% would get Labour 40 MP’s if 3% of the vote is wasted.(32.3/97×120=40). This is the kind of vote I expect Labour to get with a good campaign.

      But there are 5 people who will win electorate seats who are not listed in the top 40, so that means the top 35 on the list would get in. (I may be shot down in flames here…)

      It appears to me, crucially, that Kelvin Davis will get in very easily providing Labour polls close to 30%, and I don’t think them polling less is worth contemplating.

      Over the last 5 Roy Morgan’s Labour has averaged 29.4%.

      • Colonial Viper 10.1.1

        IMO best case scenario for Labour this year is 34% which translates into 42 MPs, which includes up to no. 37 on the List.

        Anything over that figure would be miraculous. Not that I am against miracles.

      • Lucas Moore 10.1.2


  10. McFlock 11

    18 being the “danger zone” is a bit low, in my opinion.

    I make 11 electorate MPs on that list, so if the result is similar to 2011 (science forbid :)) that would be 22 electorate MPs, 12 list MPs. And Because the electorate MPs include 11 off the list, it looks like the list might go up to 22. Based on the last shitty result. If you believe Fairfax, it’s much lower, but if Labour campaign well, it’ll be higher.

    I’d be confident if I were in low to mid twenties on the list, reasonably hopeful for 5 or ten places above. Provided Labour campaign well. Sorting the redzone problem is another good move, incidentally.

    • Tamati 11.1

      The problem is Labour could start winning electorates. Even on a really bad night they could easily gain Chch Central, Waimak, Napier, Kelston and Te Tai Hauarau. On a slightly better night, they could win a couple more Maori seats, Maungakiekie and Hamilton East. Even with their vote below 30%

      Really hard to predict. We need some smart person to build us and interactive so we can do some simulations.

      • lprent 11.1.1

        Not me. I have been having problems just keeping up with moderation this last week. Writing posts sucked up a lot of time as well as I don’t write clickbait as well as slater an farrar.

        • Tamati

          Hopefully Hanwakal Singh of NZ Herald reads this. I really like his work. This sort of thing is probably far too beltway for the average Granny reader.

      • McFlock 11.1.2

        lol yeah the elections.org calulator takes ages to type in.

        Good call on the electorate thing.
        My figuring was that a boost in electorates is unlikely without a boost in party vote.

        Interestingly, Labour seem to bounce all over the place list seats-wise, from 7 or 8 places to 22. So I’m probably wrong, but it hurts my brain anyway 🙂

        • McFlock

          basically, if they get a few more electorates but jump to 35%, it’s good for list folks.
          If they get 22 electorates and 23% of the vote, the list candidates are screwed.

          • Tamati

            The NBR has a nice spreadsheet that breaks it down pretty well. Looks like they only his the 45% female if they make 35% of the vote.


            • McFlock

              sweet, cheers 🙂

              • Tamati

                DPF, has a list on his sight too. Slightly different than the NBR, not sure why!

                • Sacha

                  NBR is basing electorate wins on the iPredict ‘market’ as is their bent. Farrar in this instance is probably more reliable.

                  • Tamati

                    I’d take the wisdom of the crowds over a loudmouth any day. The only difference I can tell is that NBR have put Labour for regaining Christchurch central. Only 50 votes in it last time, so probably one of the first Labour pick ups.

                    • Sacha

                      He’s being paid handsomely to undertake daily political polling. Just this once, he may have an advantage over online Act voters with too much money on their hands.

                    • Tamati

                      There are plenty of polls out there, I’m guessing most pollsters play a invest a little on iPredict anyway. Prediction markets are far more reliable than individual polls anyway.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Prediction markets are far more reliable than individual polls anyway.

                      I don’t think that is borne out in reality as what prediction markets do at best is amalgamate, average out or reinforce the most common popular biases of the day, made worse as they are also magnified by typical market led greed/fear behaviour patterns.

                    • Tamati

                      They’re not perfect by any means, but they do have pretty good track record. The only difference here is who’s going to win Christchurch central anyway.

                    • blue leopard

                      re CV’s comment
                      …not to mention manipulation….

                    • Tamati

                      I think people who try and manipulate iPredict have far too much time on their hands. It’s useless anyway, the market will correct eventually.

                    • blue leopard

                      I am unsure of the numbers involved – but if the group playing with iPredict is small – and the players are rich – doesn’t that mean it is easy and fairly inexpensive to manipulate? I think it is bloody ridiculous what those numbers are currently saying in iPredict – something like 80% chance of National winning – that is rubbish! Even Key was calling for caution and that the numbers are close a few weeks ago – while iPredict was sitting on 70%.

                      Last election the game was new – this election the wealthy ones with profits to lose know eyes are on that market – it is simply an ‘investment’ to them so they don’t have to put their workers wages up.

                      When do you think it will ‘correct’ itself?

            • Michael

              So according to those nice people at NBR, none of our list candidates make it into Parliament? That’s even worse than I thought. While I think Labour’s support is probably a bit higher than NBR says it is, it’s not by much.

              • Sacha

                NBR are taking the 23% poll result as their reference point for that claim. What a surprise.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Well, they probably still believe the world economy is going to grow at 3.5% next year so at least they are being consistent.

        • Tamati

          There are just too many combinations to really make any definite calls on what the final caucus will be without some sort of software. Pundits will make calls, but they’re all bullshit without some proper statistical analysis.

          I do think it’s possible that Labour picks up few seats whilst not increasing their party vote, or conversely loses a couple whilst growing their vote. With the boundary changes, unpredictable local issues and the fallacies of single member plurality we really won’t know.

          The whole thing is hard on Kelvin Davis, at his current spot he should be pretty comfortable but there’s an outside chance he’ll miss out. This is almost worse than ranking him 40th, he’ll be in two minds about what he should be doing.

          • McFlock

            well, that’s politics. It’s not a sinecure – but it does set you up for other work.

        • Colonial Viper

          Good call on the electorate thing.
          My figuring was that a boost in electorates is unlikely without a boost in party vote.

          NB in 2011 Labour lost a lot of party vote; but kept virtually all its electorates pretty well. Which tells me NZers are getting very comfortable with splitting their vote and voting tactically.

      • Michael 11.1.3

        Good idea. Labour is vulnerable to electoral “overhang”, where we win more electorate seats than corresponding Party Vote. The result: hardly anyone on the list gets in, although we do get MP’s representing electorates, which I think is a good thing for Labour, but we also need our best list MP’s in Parliament too.

        • Te Reo Putake

          I don’t think that’s mathematically correct, Michael. While Labour is going to pick up some seats for sure (at least couple each in Chch and Ak, plus 2 or 3 of the maori seats) that doesn’t cover the gap between the current 22 electorate/12 list seat result that we got with 27% of the party vote.

          Every 0.8%* above that 27% brings in another list MP, but the number of electorate seats is not likely to exceed 30, even if the tide turns dramatically against the nats. That’s because the majorities are simply too large in many of the provincial seats to make them winnable this time around. The cutoff point is probably the seat of Whanganui, which if won by Hamish MacDouall, almost certainly means a comfortable win overall for a Labour + friends Government.

          Or to put it another way, we’d have to win 11 more electorates without improving our party vote.

          • I think it’s 0.8%, but I may not be quite right, so a correction would be welcomed.
          • Michael

            That’s interesting – I hope you’re right. BTW, Dene McKenzie, the “Otago Daily Times'” political editor, reckons Labour’s support is 29%. I’m not sure how he reaches that number but, if he’s right and Labour’s support doesn’t decline further, we might get a few people in at the very top of our list, but not many. Whether we can then form a coalition government with other parties is a different matter entirely, although I think Labour will be in a weak position, compared to its potential partners, if its Party Vote does not improve.

    • Tracey 11.2

      funny how the left can count and read… And the right…

      • Bob 11.2.1

        …are interested what is going to happen when David Parker misses out when Labour wins 22-24 electorate seats and only win 23-26% of the party vote. Who becomes deputy?

        • McFlock

          Who becomes deputy?

          It’ll be a contest between ziggy the talking dinosaur and whoever sold you those “I think I can see into the future” drugs.

  11. Wyndham, George 12

    Ardern at no 5 and had not even a Local Board seat under her belt!
    Winning votes on the street should be more highly valued than votes in committee rooms.

  12. Michael 13

    On current form, nearly all of the list-only candidates won’t make it (exception: David Parker and, perhaps, one or two more). Labour has run a lacklustre campaign, with more than its share of cockups. There is a strong perception that its caucus is not united behind the leader, with far too many caucus members still wanting to implement New Right economic policies, in spite of all the evidence of the damage those policies did, and continue to do, to Labour’s base. Better luck in 2017?

    • lprent 13.1

      Depends if you count that ipsos poll as being anything but trash…

      • Crunchtime 13.1.1

        I don’t know if “lacklustre”, but I do feel that Labour need to be campaigning and marketing themselves a lot better than they are now.

        They have pretty much all the news outlets against them right now, and aren’t gelling enough of their story out there to swing it the other way.

        • Clemgeopin

          That is because /publicity depends on the whims of the media controllers, rather than Labour per se.

      • Michael 13.1.2

        Yes, you could well be right. Bugger the pollsters, eh?

    • JK 13.2

      Hang on, Michael – the campaign hasn’t been run yet ! It hasn’t even started so you cannot call it lacklustre.

      Assuming Labour won’t have any less MPs in the House than currently (33) – of which 22 are electorate seats, then Kelvin Davis is in a comfortable position, and if Carmel Sepuloni and Stuart Nash take a seat each, it is Carol Beaumont and Rachel Jones who need to worry about whether they will be in Parliament.

      This is a List which to me looks like the top List people currently not in Parliament (Jones, Sepuloni,
      Coffey, Salesa, Craig, Russell, Prime and Mika) are going to have to work their butts off to bring in that Labour Party Vote so they can make it into Parliament. Which is a good thing. No slacking on the campaign trail.

      • Michael 13.2.1

        That’s a useful way of looking at it. I don’t trust the polls much, either, but I think the trend has Labour’s support declining, with far too many people saying they don’t intend to vote at all (and they are people we need to vote for us). My gut feeling is that Labour’s Party Vote is now below its 2011 level (it’s worst ever). Labour will have to start doing things differently if it wants to motivate people into the booths (it doesn’t need to lure voters away from National, especially as that requires Labout to become “national-lite”).

    • Bearded Git 13.3

      The campaign hasn’t really started yet Michael.

  13. fisiani 14

    No Mallard or Curran on the list so Kelvin Davis is actually number 20. Hone is furious.

  14. Tamati 15

    No Ruth Dyson, or is she stepping down?

    • Tracey 15.1

      Electorate only. Had hoped she was resigning.

      • Tamati 15.1.1

        She’ll be up against it. Boundary changes weren’t too kind.

        • NickS

          Maybe, EQC’s fucking around in Sumner hasn’t gone down well and Haswell has had a population influx from the damaged suburbs so it wont be an easy win for National.

          • Tamati

            She’s lost a chunk of working class South East Christchurch so will be a one to watch.

  15. fisiani 16

    It’s a slick list. I agree with Tamati who said
    The problem is Labour could start winning electorates. Even on a really bad night they could easily gain Chch Central, Waimak, Napier, Kelston and Te Tai Hauarau. On a slightly better night, they could win a couple more Maori seats, Maungakiekie and Hamilton East. Even with their vote below 30%
    Mallard Curran and Dyson should win so yet again
    Kelvin Davis has been royally shafted.He is effectively not 18 but 26.

    • blue leopard 16.1

      weak and repetitive

      • Anthony B'stard 16.1.1

        “weak and repetitive”

        Kelvin Davis is not that bad, a lot better than some of those above him

        • blue leopard

          That is a matter of opinion – and beside the point – the point being that Fisiani has posted at least 4 times that Kelvin’s list place means he has to fight for TTT. This list placing gives him a fairly good chance of getting in via the list. I wonder why the urgency in spreading the idea that this is not the case? Most people reading are intelligent enough to work that out – hence the comment is weak and repetitive.

  16. Clemgeopin 17

    A good list reflecting the diversity, talent and values of the people of this country.

    In spite of the dirty tricks campaigns against Labour and its leader based on historical facts or fiction, I am very confident that on Sept 20, the country will thankfully have a Labour-led government that will be fair to all people and the long term good of the country with progressive policies rather than being primarily for the benefit of the wealthy and the powerful as the present right wing nasty government has shown in its six years of rule with a few Labour-lite policies thrown in or copied from Labour for political expediency.

  17. Skinny 18

    Dyson will win her seat. Nash and Curran know it’s do or die after being balked by the party.

    The list is pretty much the best they could do. They have put some on the cusp where if the vote comes out their in. And if in doubt they have just been given the message to campaign like their political future depended on it, so in other words not worth the gamble… make your own destiny and win your seat.

  18. fisiani 19

    Smoke and mirrors list. Where are Faafoi, Dyson, Nash, Mallard, Curran. Do the apparatchiks in Labour think that journalists will not notice. Poor Kelvin Davis.

    • McFlock 19.1

      keep pushing that line, fuckmeister.

      Labour expect their electorate candidates to win.
      National encourage theirs to lose in favour of nutters and criminals from other parties.

      • blue leopard 19.1.1

        Yes, I guess we can expect Fisiani’s type of crap on TV tonight, seeing as they seem to have taken to reporting in the same ‘make-stuff-up-off-the-top-of-one’s-head style that contains the same complete dearth of logical consistency as the most banal tr—things display on this site. (One could be excused for thinking they might all be working for the same political ideology/party.)

        NZ’s condition of Munteritus appears to have worsened recently.

    • Tiger Mountain 19.2

      Like Barnacle Bill, Fishyanus what do you care?

      The Nats list is a mystery to me and happy for it to stay that way.

    • Bearded Git 19.3

      See my post above fis. Kelvin Davis will get in easily.

      So vote Hone and get two for the price of one!!

  19. Ad 20

    Sure hope to hell this starts changing Labour’s story of the week.

    • Colonial Viper 20.1


      Positive, gutsy policy and unapologetic left wing framing please. And lets not get side tracked into the “Misogynistic Media” rants I’ve already seen start to happen.

      • You know what would be unapologetic? A Labour Party which calls out sexist media for judging its candidates on the basis of their gender. But I get that you have a personal issue with anything and anyone which points out sexism in action.

        • Colonial Viper

          Hey Stephanie, go for it. If you trust your political judgement and you are sincere about your stance, go for it. If your political gut truly tells you that 89 days before an election that a war with the media around gender politics and sexism is what voters around the country want the supposed Government in Waiting to participate in, go for it.

          Personally, my political instincts tell me it would be a stupid and politically suicidal thing to do because

          1) Labour has already clearly signalled to women where it stands on issues of gender politics and progressive politics simply by putting out this list.

          2) Labour would walk straight into the trap set by the MSM to reinforcing the false meme that all Labour fights for these days is identity politics.

          3) Labour would piss off even more voters tired of negative campaigning.

          But yeah, whatever. You obvs know your shit.

          • blue leopard

            Depends who Labour’s target audience is.

            I am pretty much undecided on this one – I find myself agreeing with you on the likely attack line of National – yet there is that article I linked to in another thread which I will just go and get…


            This indicates to me that standing up for women could switch some non-voters on to voting and some Nat swingers too. I don’t know the level of discontent in NZ but I would think that there is some similar level of feeling amongst some women in NZ.

            Did you see backbenchers a few weeks ago? Just one example – but a young woman actually said that politics was all very male and she doesn’t feel they represent her (not her exact words, she may have mentioned something like full of ‘old men’). I thought that was rather interesting that she came out and said that.

            I guess the trouble is ‘standing up for women’ may attract some voters and repel others and there has to be a fair idea of the likely numbers in each ‘camp’ – that is the type of assessment I hope is being taken very seriously by Labour.

            I wouldn’t have a clue myself, I guess that is why I feel I am on the fence on this one though there is an issue with women trending higher than men in unemployment and also the issue of children that is often connected with women due to the traditional roles that still exist (with exceptions) and these issues are much more likely areas Labour will improve than National, so there is perhaps more likelihood than less that women need to be targeted by Labour rather than the types that misogynist dog-whistles appeal to.

            I really do hope that Labour are doing these types of assessment of their ‘target market.’ It is starting to look like they are…

  20. fisiani 21

    Tricky tricky list. Typical of Tricky Cunliffe. We are not conned.

    • vto 21.1

      liars liars
      jizzing into yankee pockets
      and shitting all over
      the children of the future

      what a bunch eh
      what a bunch

    • McFlock 21.2

      so it’s a slick, smoke and mirrors, tricky tricky list.

      You’re obviously shitting yourself, putting in that much effort.

    • You’re very loyal, but “tricky” Cunliffe was never going to take off, given:

      a) he appears to be the very antithesis of tricky, and
      b) the current PM is the very epitome of it. In fact I was watching him on 3 News tonight, trying to tell us how his approach to cutting electorate deals with minor parties was a true exemplar of transparency and integrity, and thinking that he really is the weasel’s weasel. (It was slightly undermined by his inability to keep the smirk off his face while refusing to explain how he knew weeks ago about claims supposedly made to the Herald by Donghua Liu, but still – he is a master of the field of weaselry.)

      • I cannot believe 3 News just unquestioningly reported Key’s line “I’m going to be open and transparent … on a day of my choosing.”

        • Clemgeopin

          This biased media asks very tough questions in an aggressive manner to Cinliffe and I am yet to see any of the same journalists being similarly tough or aggressive in their questioning of Key! What a sad set of biased, one sided and cowardly bunch we have masquerading themselves as ‘journalists’ in our fourth pillar of democracy!

      • Sacha 21.3.2

        ” ‘tricky’ Cunliffe was never going to take off” – already has, hence media feeling fine taking the line they have over this. Sad political comms fail.

  21. Sacha 22

    No Right Turn has the list compared with the 2011 version:

    Some hefty jumps to keep current caucus members safe. And talented people who will miss out because of that.

  22. fisiani 23

    Take a deep breath and have a look at Kiwiblog re the Labour list and the REAL list positions. It is truly ridiculous for Mallard to claim that he is off the list to get Kelvin Davis higher on the list. 8 not on the list who will win a seat. Davis needs 27.2% No new candidates above him. No one is fooled by the list.

  23. fisiani 24

    NickS do you not know that the plan is to extract just 8% of the trees. 92% will be left. Your argument is therefore totally (well 92%) irrelevant.

    • NickS 24.1


      [citation needed] Plus how the flaming fuck is 8% not going to impact at all? And this claim of yours is a very clear ye olde faulty generalisation fallacy.

      Also I see again that you’ve conveniently ignored the impacts I talked about that removing windfall can cause. Combine this with your prior behaviour and it suggests very strongly you’re a feckless twit who can’t even understand the basics of writing a rigorous argument, let alone how to effectively troll.

    • NickS 24.2


      [citation needed] Plus how the flaming fuck is 8% not going to impact at all? And this claim of yours is a very clear ye olde faulty generalisation fallacy.

      Also I see again that you’ve conveniently ignored the impacts I talked about that removing windfall can cause. Combine this with your prior behaviour and it suggests very strongly you’re a feckless twit who can’t even understand the basics of writing a rigorous argument, let alone how to effectively tr*ll.

      (edited cnp of post stuck in moderation)

    • felix 24.3

      A bit like the partial privatisation argument from the right: “But but but we’re only half fucking everything up

  24. dimebag russell 25

    what the hell has that got to do with the labour list.
    take a hike you fool.

  25. Richard 26

    Bizarre smear from Skinny about Willow Jeans partner. He’s no low life boss at Talleys? He’s a teacher at Bay of Islands College. Ridiculous thing to make up! Probably good to have a disclaimer under the comment.

  26. Clean_power 27

    Rejuvenation? What rejuvenation? Another missed opportunity to clear the ranks.
    The Party needs new blood, not the same tired face of A. King.

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    4 days ago
  • Progress towards simpler process for changing sex on birth certificates
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  • Speech to the New Zealand Medical Association General Practitioners' Conference, Rotorua
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