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Labour up in Colmar Brunton

Written By: - Date published: 6:42 pm, August 21st, 2011 - 57 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

Good to see Labour up 3% in the latest TV1 / Colmar Brunton poll.  All the results should of course be taken with a good helping of salt, and the short term trends are wandering around near the margin of error, but in terms of perception the last thing Labour needed at this point was a drop on the last one.  Greens have fallen back to 6% (a worry), but none of the Nats’ coalition partners are looking good.

Apparently there’s another poll out tonight, if I see it I’ll update this post.

Update: There is is, a 3 News Reid poll (video).  While Colmar Brunton had both Labour and the Nats up, Reid has both Labour and the Nats down.  Margin of error, random noise, this is why it’s silly to try and build up narratives out of individual poll results.  Doesn’t stop some people trying of course!

57 comments on “Labour up in Colmar Brunton”

  1. Mac1 1

    It’s the old water torture for the Nats as their support erodes. Drip! drip! drip! Until the avalanche/waterfall/overflowing gutterings in November. No wonder Wonder Boy won’t debate or appear where he might be shown for what he is……..

    Meanwhile, Goff grows in strength as instanced by his showing with the recent union conference.

    Pity about the All Blacks.

    • chris73 1.1

      National’s support is higher than it has been all year at 56%. Labour is up 3% but only to 30%.

      Key gets his highest ever preferred prime minister ranking in the poll, at 57%, up 3%.

      Did we read the same web page?

    • McFlock 1.2

      Not quite – nats are also up in the same poll. And the movement for both is so minor that it’s pretty irrelevant.

      The real dope will be during the campaign, when the response rates start becoming reasonable, the MSM start comparing Nat and Lab in the same stories, and the minor parties get more exposure. National will take a hit, ACT won’t campaign very well (cheers, Don), and Key will have to front up at least once or twice. And if they get ~<45%, Nats are screwed.

      Meh. I’m personally happy that ACT is back down to <2%, for what it’s worth at this stage.

    • Jum 1.3

      Mac1

      Whatever happens with the allblacks it always ends in tears at the women’s refuge. With the reduced funding for helping these battered beauties, it will only be worse. Thanks John Key, you must really hate women who have dreams of having an independent lifestyle.

  2. Lonewolf 2

    I just watched the TVNZ video – I believe Guyon’s exact words were “it would be delusional to see this as a good poll for Labour”

    • Jum 2.1

      Lonewolf,

      I would prefer to say that it would be ‘delusional’ to imagine New Zealand being better off under the moneytrader and mates.

    • bbfloyd 2.2

      what else would espiner say? do you not understand basic propaganda reinforcement? three weeks ago he prefaced every comment about goff with”even though he is so far behind in the polls”… do you need a brick in the head before you can see what the poodle gang are up to?

  3. Nick C 3

    Seriously? This has to be the worst attempt to spin a hopeless situation since 2003 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcwX6Ay-g9Y&feature=related

    Labours gain in the TVNZ poll came mostly at the expense of the Greens.

    EDIT – Actually it came entirely at the expense of the Greens, who lost 4%

    • r0b 3.1

      Where’s the spin Nick C? Is it hidden under the helpings of salt and the margins of error?

      • Nick C 3.1.1

        Its more about what you ommitted than what you wrote. Could have talked about:

        1) Greens lost more than Labour gained in TV1 poll
        2) The gap between the major parties stands at 26%
        3) Key got his highest ever result in the prefered PM poll, and Nationals highest this year in TV1
        4) Where as you previously commented the previous TV1 poll did not have time to factor in the CGT, this one has and there has been no progress for the pro-CGT parties.

        Instead you have picked “Labour up in CB” as your headline. Comical.

        • r0b 3.1.1.1

          But Labour are up in the CB Nick.  Sorry if that doesn’t fit in with your world view, but there it is.  As to what I choose to write on my own blog – well – why don’t you go get a blog of your own?  I’m sure it will be very popular.

    • McFlock 3.2

      Correct – your comment is a pretty pathetic attempt to spin a fairly non-commital post that simply says that at least Garner et al can’t go on about Labour still being on the way down, etc. 

    • Ed 3.3

      Actually no, it doesn’t show that a rise in support for one party is at the expense of another party – unless you believe that the polls ask the same people. If each poll asks a different subset of the population, then at least some of any movements are not necessarily caused by any changes of opinion, but by differences between samples”. I don’t know the level of “unknown / no preference”, or of “not able to get response on telephone / declined to answer poll” – changes in those indicators could indicate that a quite different segment of the population was being approached.

  4. I think the best comment is one that Rob made previously.  The population in the middle is currently switched off.  They voted National last time, they have not decided to change yet, when the campaign starts they will consider it.  Until then they are sticking where they are.

    And I better not start on the inherent bias of current polling methods … 

    EDIT: One further comment, interesting that the Right wingers have been building up the “change Goff” meme to a crescendo this week obviously hoping for a bad poll.

    And didn’t David Cunliffe do well on Q&A this morning? Handed Brash’s ass to him on a skewer …

    • Jum 4.1

      MickySavage,

      Unfortunately, Brash’s arse is heading Franklin’s way tomorrow. Expect superannuitant cheerleaders lining the pathway up to the Centre. He probably feels safe there.

  5. randal 5

    the electorate is just kicking the tyres at the moment.
    It costs money to switch cars so it has to be worth it but my opinion is that New Zealanders will make the right decisons when the time comes.
    I dont think the country can take three more years of Nationals lowbrows swanning around on tv acting like they have done something.

    • marsman 5.1

      ‘Acting like they’ve done something’ and acting like they own the country and are answerable only to themselves and their rich chums. Yuck!

    • Anne 5.2

      I dont think the country can take three more years of Nationals lowbrows swanning around on tv acting like they have done something.

      Have you listened carefully to Key’s diction on TV lately? It has suddenly got worse. So much so, one has to think about some of the words he is actually trying to say. Any ideas what the problem is anyone ?

      • Colonial Viper 5.2.1

        Hmmmm. I found this from 2007. Do you think he has actually gotten worse? He’s not great in this clip, even with no pressure.

        • Anne 5.2.1.1

          It’s worse now CV. At least you can understand exactly what he was saying in 2007 even if the diction was bad. Some of his words have been quite slurred recently. Makes me wonder…

        • Lanthanide 5.2.1.2

          I don’t think he was ‘bad’ in that clip at all. Can’t comment on him being worse than usual lately either, though.

          Maybe he’s got some sort of disease creeping in? Lets make a new rumour out of that, like how Goff keeps walking the plank all the time…

          • Colonial Viper 5.2.1.2.1

            Lanth I don’t think any of us are trying to raise this as some kind of PR exercise or rumour mill stunt. Key has bad diction e.g. “Rubber Wool Cup” the question we are asking is whether or not it has worsened significantly in the last couple of years.

            I’m in two minds about it personally, but Anne may have a better ear than I do for picking up the nuances.

            • Anne 5.2.1.2.1.1

              You’re right CV. I inherited ‘the ear’ from my mother.

            • rosy 5.2.1.2.1.2

              I really don’t know why he doesn’t get some speech training. It should be easy enough to improve with all those PR people around him.

              • AAMC

                I think the PR people live his diction, it’s what allows people to look past his 55 million and believe he’s one of them.

                Aside from his diction, power seriously ages you doesn’t it. He looks seriously older, baggy eyes, grey complexion.

          • Anne 5.2.1.2.2

            Maybe he’s got some sort of disease creeping in? Lets make a new rumour out of that, like how Goff keeps walking the plank all the time…

            Err… not sure what you are trying to suggest Lanthanide but suspect you are reading something in my comment that isn’t there. I have noticed some of Key’s words have been quite slurred in recent times – end of story. Jum (below) may be right – it’s deliberate – but I can’t quite see what he hopes to gain by it.

            • Jum 5.2.1.2.2.1

              Anne,

              I’m just repeating the news piece; I think JKeyll is just trying to run the ‘I’m one of you’ accents, but seriously, who would vote for a person to become Prime Minister of your country if you couldn’t even understand him or her?

              Add that to the total lack of statesmanlike behaviour by Key.

              Goff’s statesmanlike leadership is way ahead of Key.

              Key has his snout in the trough in NZ; did he forget to take it out before he spoke? Should we ask him now if his mother would be proud of him?. He may not like the answer.

              • Anne

                @ Jum
                Yes I realised it was a news piece. What puzzles me is the fact he feels the need to pretend to be ‘one of us’ by adopting such a ridiculously thick Kiwi accent. And why has it seemingly got worse of late? Is it the pressure of the job? Or is he covering something up – the paucity of decent, well thought through policies perhaps? One day we’ll find out…

            • bbfloyd 5.2.1.2.2.2

              the answer is probably mundane… his drinking is starting to bite…. i’ve seen it like this before… in five years he will be repeating his gibberish to anyone who’ll talk to him..

          • bbfloyd 5.2.1.2.3

            you’re starting to sound like a double agent lanth..

        • Jum 5.2.1.3

          Colonial Viper,

          Interesting about Key’s accent; in a Feb 2008 report by Gillian Tett and Ruth Laugesen SST 3/2/08
          a John Kelly, one of Key’s American bosses, Merrill Lynch, said “he would lay on his Kiwi accent so thick in meetings than none of us could understand what he was saying it was kind of deliberate” says Kelly.

          It’s just another mask, Colonial Viper.

  6. Robert B 6

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!! Honestly laughing out loud here.

    What a pathetic attempt at spin.

    No wonder nobody takes this blog seriously. You’re really doing yourself a disservice with this level of mindnumbing spin. I doubt even the sheep you’re trying to cheerlead believe that one.

    … Or perhaps they do …

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Thanks for your insightful analysis of the poll results.

      • Craig Glen Eden 6.1.1

        Yeah no analysis from RB and unlike some of his rwnj mates he is not in the least bit funny which is a bugger. Im with Mickey again which wont surprise many, but I have to agree regarding the election and voters behaviour and yup Cunliffe kick Brash’s arse, gave Guyon more than he was bargaining on to. While English and Ryall wouldnt front to debate the merits of asset sales they probably made a good political decision, but sooner our latter boys Cunliffe going to get ya !

  7. Jum 7

    When Robert B starts hallucinating in blog-print we know we’ve hit a nerve of the total uselessness of this government of fuckwits.

    In case anyone missed my previous comment because of robert’s rabid bleating I’ll repeat it:

    Jum 5.2.1.3
    21 August 2011 at 8:12 pm

    Colonial Viper,

    Interesting about Key’s accent; in a Feb 2008 report by Gillian Tett and Ruth Laugesen SST 3/2/08
    a John Kelly, one of Key’s American bosses, Merrill Lynch, said “he would lay on his Kiwi accent so thick in meetings than none of us could understand what he was saying it was kind of deliberate” says Kelly.

    It’s just another mask, Colonial Viper.

  8. ak 8

    Ho hum. So after months of hearing nothing from Dunky and Guy but how useless Phil Goff is and how Labour can’t win, the 8% of punters who hate politics and couldn’t give a rat’s razoo parrot back what they’ve had hammered into them. Heavens above, Alma – advertising actually works.

    Of far more portent is this headline: WARRIORS WIN – ALL BLACKS LOSE.

  9. jackal 9

    I wonder how many people decide to leave NZ because of these brain fart polls?

  10. HC 10

    Yeah!! Polls, polls, pulls, pulls, pull the wool over people’s eyes, I suppose.

    These polls are not much to go by when it comes to actual elections. Many people do not like to answer to telephone surveys or polls, and hence they only collect data from the people prepared to put up with such annoying phone calls.

    Such people would tend to be the more patient, more conservative and also more gullible.

    As it has also been mentioned before, they seem to tend to phone only landlines. So how would they actually reach sufficiently representative persons to give any truly reliable trends?

    So I would not read much into this at all. For instance Colmar Brunton had the Greens at only 6 %, while a poll published via 3 News had them well over 9 % tonight. Also were there big differences between Labour support for both polls.

    Key still appears to be popular with many, because the vast population does not hear about his schoolboy behaviour during Question Time. Very few are well informed in that regards, and they only see him as the polished “statesman like” “Leader Maximo” on their headline news.

    By the way Colmar Brunton do themselves cover their backsides with disclaimers. Perhaps check the following links for details:

    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=17

    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/files/20110721103849-1311201529-0.pdf

    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=92

    http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/key-and-national-hit-new-highs-in-poll-4358473

    • Puddleglum 10.1

      These are particularly interesting disclaimers from your linked pdf:

      NOTE: The data does not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to predict the outcome of an election.
      Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support, and it would be misleading to report otherwise.” 

      Isn’t One News using them to “predict the outcome of an election”? 

      (I won’t comment on “data does”!! Oops, just commented on it…) 

      • aerobubble 10.1.1

        I can’t fathom why Key is high and dry. But I have too much to get on with.
        Leave it till after the Rugby. Maybe National will then have some tax cuts to
        buy me off. Not sure they will work this time as their last tax cuts made me
        worse off. Let’s just be nice to the pollster and give Key a tick.

  11. Dan1 11

    Key didn’t face up to the Christchurch families; English and Ryall didn’t face up on asset sales on Q&A. Interestingly, Michelle Boag said she felt English should have been there. They can’t run forever!

    • rosy 11.1

      “They can’t run forever!”
      It seems as if they can run until after the election, sadly. It really annoys me how they can get away with not fronting up to serious questioning.

  12. Bill 12

    Where do they take the polls? I live in a provincial town and I don’t know of anyone, whether business people or….well, fucking anyone who has anything good to say about Key in particular, or National in general.

    • Gosman 12.1

      Wow! What a surprise, a hard core lefty can’t find anyone willing to admit to them that they support National.

      Do you think it might have something to do with the company you chosse to keep Bill?

      That and the likelihood that if anyone ever did admit they liked National in your presence they would have to put up with an boring ear bashing for several hours.

    • TightyRighty 12.2

      What provincial town? I travel through provincial towns and talk to business owners and workers there on a daily basis, and I hardly ever hear anything bad about John Key. Mine include Gisborne, Wairoa, Waipukurau, oamaru, Blenheim, Invercargill, Methven, Darfield, Queenstown, Gore, Bulls, Fielding, Masterton.

      • RedLogix 12.2.1

        Been there done that kind of work myself TR.

        And in that kind of scenario people rather tend to tell you what they think you want to hear.

        Now I’m not denying that Key is popular. They love him because he comes across as a ‘do just enough to get by’ sort of guy… a bit like most of them. New Zealanders have become a narrow people who are suspicious of intellectual, egg-headed wankers with big ideas. So Key suits them just fine for the time being.

        Key is very good at telling New Zealanders the sorts we want to hear too. In a very uncertain world it’s very soothing to have the PM tell us not to worry our pretty little heads too much about big things that might go bump in the night.

  13. Frederick 13

    HC If you are so confident that their will be a labour led government I suggest you invest your life savings in I Predict – currently “their will be a labour prime minister” has dropped to 8.8%. You will make an absolute fortune.

    As a long time watcher of question time (which incidentally I enjoy very much) I have always found by and large most participants engage in schoolboy (or schoolgirl if you want) behaviour.It would be pretty boring otherwise. I suppose you are now going to tell me that Trevor Mallard is a model of restraint and decorum in comparison to John Key.

    Finally how anyone can spin that these polls are a good result for labour is utterly bewildering. Even Pravda would be struugling to report any good news from the latest lot.

    • HC 13.1

      Frederick:
      Polls are just polling our legs.

      There have been polls in NZ and other countries, that appeared to show such a clear trend before elections, yet once it was election day, then there were suddenly major surprises.

      I accept that Key is an incredible “MR Teflon”, and had teflon not been invented yet, he would be patented right away.

      That does not change the fact that he is as hollow as a wooden structure invaded by termites.

      He had a fairly good run, but having observed him in the news, in parliament and in the odd interview recently, he is showing signs of getting weary now. He certainly got a good hammering by the opposition in question time last week.

      Also are Goff and Labour slowly starting to get a bit into form.

      The world economy and strategic situation in the Middle East are extremely volatile, and that is not even touching other worrying developments.

      It is under given circumstances impossible to make any predictions even just one month into the future, what will hit us next.

      Given that and the fact that these polls are highly unreliable (party loyalties are not what they used to be), I do not make any predictions and do not rule anything out at present.

      Even Don Key appears to be quite cautious.

    • McFlock 13.2

      let’s see – there’s no hope for Labour, everyone says so, everyone behaves as badly in the house as national do, generic comparison to the Soviet Union.
       
      Plus male first name psuedonym and doubtful spelling, we have a perfect tory troll.

  14. Gosman 14

    My god, you are actually using Martyn Bradbury’s rantings as a reference.

    While you are correct about it being silly to build up a narrative on individual polls it isn’t to do so by analysing a number of them over time. What we see if we do that is National consistently around 50 % and Labour consistently around 30 %.

    \You don’t tend to win elections based on 30 % support three months out from an election.

    • McFlock 14.1

       What we see if we do that is National consistently around 50 % of landline users who chose to participate in the survey and could remember party names unprompted and Labour consistently around 30 %  of landline users who chose to participate in the survey and could remember party names unprompted.

      You don’t tend to win elections based on 30 % support three months out from in an election.

      FIFY.

  15. gingercrush 15

    Labour are silly thats why.

    They should be doing compare and contrast easy examples.

    Under blah blah two parent middle income family of 3.

    Under National:

    Food has climbed blah blah %
    GST increased their tax by by blah blah%
    Inflation went blah blah blah %
    etc etc etc.

    With Labour

    GST off Fruit and Income will save blah blah%
    Income tax threshold will save blah blah%
    ECE 20 hours free blah blah
    Kiwisaver will blah blah
    Little Boy Eric who is on 13.50 a hour will find his minimum wage going up blah blah by 2014
    etc etc etc

    Seriously. Labour get off your fat asses. Go to every town in this country and electioneer. Seriously target Auckland Inner-outer suburbs, West Auckland and South Auckland. Wellington, Christchurch, Dunedin, Nelson, West Coast and New Plymouth. And well duh sell yourself.

    Forget about parliament and owning National ministers in the house. Nobody cares. And all Labour MPs should be made to turn off their television sets and campaign. Because losing is losing and losing because you barely even tried is just terrible. Its Bill English terrible.

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