Labour’s List

38 comments on “Labour’s List ”

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1. observer 1

   15 June 2020 at 1:02 pm

   Are there any electorate-only candidates this time? (in winnable seats, at least).
   • Ben77 1.1

     15 June 2020 at 1:19 pm

     Greg O Connor (Ohariu) isn't on the list and a likely win.
     • xanthe 1.1.1

       16 June 2020 at 9:55 am

       well thats unfortunate!
       • Tricledrown 1.1.1.1

         16 June 2020 at 10:43 am

         I thought he was retiring
2. mickysavage 2

   15 June 2020 at 1:10 pm

   I wish I had your optimism TRP. If Labour gets 45% they will be doing exceptionally well. Mind you that is 54 seats.

   I think Boyack (59) will win an electorate seat and Williams (60) and Leary (61) are certain to win.

   I would also predict Halbert (53) to win Northcote.

   So under 50 (White) would make it although she should have a chance to win Auckland Central.

   I am very impressed by Vanushi Walters who is a westie. I wonder if she could go close in Upper Harbour with Paula gone. It is an ethnically diverse seat and National has selected a white male from outside of the electorate.
   • McFlock 2.1

     15 June 2020 at 1:23 pm

     Yeah I'd go for that. Still many a slip between now and the election. Although the nats have time for another two leadership changes, as well lol
   • te reo putake 2.2

     15 June 2020 at 1:41 pm

     Glad you noted my optimism, MS. I always try to be a little ray of sunshine around these parts, as regular readers know 😉

     You are quite correct to point to 45% as the KPI. At that level, whatever the outcomes for other parties, Labour will lead the next Government. However, my prediction that list candidates in the high sixties may also make it is based on two distinct possibilities.

     Firstly, that Labour do better than 50%. Only an unexpectedly good campaign by National's temporary leader can stop that happening. On current form, you wouldn't bet on Todd delivering.

     Secondly, that one of Labour's support parties falls short of the 5% and the redistribution of their lost MP's lifts Labour's overall result.

     NZ First seems to be the party most at risk. Labour would likely be allocated 4 or 5 of their current 9 list spots, with the other 4 (or 5) split between National, the Greens, and maybe ACT.

     So, anywhere from 55 to 70 seats is possible for Labour, as I see it, depending on how the chips fall.

     Me? I'd be happy with 61. And that's just to end the 'John Key is NZ's most popular PM' trope.
   • Sanctuary 2.3

     15 June 2020 at 2:01 pm

     I can see Labour being rewarded with the chance to govern alone – especially as I predict a huge National stay-at-home non vote & a flaking off of 2-3% from the Nats to ACT.
     • lprent 2.3.1

       15 June 2020 at 4:50 pm

       That really isn't the question then.

       It is why would you try to govern alone bearing in mind that another election is a mere 3 years away. Keep your frenemies close and away from your 'loyal' opposition.
       • Sacha 2.3.1.1

         15 June 2020 at 5:43 pm

         Unfortunately MMP logic suggests sucking up to Winston First again if they clear the threshold. More suitors. Fingers crossed it's only the Greens who get back or spite will neuter them again.
         • Tricledrown 2.3.1.1.1

           16 June 2020 at 11:08 am

           When the enquiry into NZ first's dodgy funding scheme comes out before the election it will mean an end to NZ first.
       • ScottGN 2.3.1.2

         15 June 2020 at 6:27 pm

         I agree. Even if she does win a majority, and provided the Greens and NZFirst get back in, I would expect the PM to try and keep the coalition going in some form. NZFirst, of course, may prefer some time on the cross bench.
       • woodart 2.3.1.3

         15 June 2020 at 6:59 pm

         we need 4-6 parties in parliament for proper representation
       • Ed1 2.3.1.4

         15 June 2020 at 9:46 pm

         I agree. A strength of the current government is their ability to handle the reality of needing support with respect and consideration, even to the extent of foregoing some policies without laying the blame on the minor party responsible, and not laying the blame for criticism of being a little too conservative on them either.We don't yet know the effect on votes of the Provincial Growth Fund but NZ First will take some credit, and it may be enough with a few defecting National voters for them to make the threshold. One of their Ministers is reputed to be doing quite a good job; no harm in bringing them in with no real power but to deliver to the governing parties have broader support. Winston must be near retirement anyway. A Labour/Green coalition will be open to all sorts of distorted criticism from the right and their far-right poodle party; co-existing with the only remaining centre-right party should not stop somewhat more certainty over being able to achieve policy goals for both Labour and the Greens. If the results are close enough that the Green Party has the power to force Jacinda to reverse her position on capital gains tax, so much the better . . . A less desirable result would be to see both the Greens and NZ First out of parliament through not meeting the (too high) threshold, while seeing ACT coat-tail a couple more MPs. What would be the best seat to do a Goldsmith in favour of the Greens?
   • Peter 2.4

     15 June 2020 at 9:14 pm

     Halbert lost by about 6.3% to Bidois in 2018. I'm not sure how he is regarded in Northcote. The Ardern factor could be important there.

     Kaye beat White by 5.4% in Auckland Central. I think the status and position of Kaye is likely to see the gap maintained unless a significant number, knowing she'll get in by dint of her list position, might go for a 'double happy' and be pleased to have two MPs.
3. Michael 3

   15 June 2020 at 1:17 pm

   Pleased to see Ayesha Verrall get such a high ranking – she'll be a real asset in any government (although I don't expect her to swallow any dead rats Labour's neoliberal wing throws her way). Also pleased to see Rachel Brooking in with a chance – I think she'd be a far better candidate than Ingrid Leary in Dunedin South.
   • McFlock 3.1

     15 June 2020 at 1:25 pm

     Grant Robertson as minister of finance, Andrew Campbell on coms – are there any former OUSA presidents not involved with Labour atm? lol
4. Chris 4

   15 June 2020 at 1:32 pm

   There are a number of people in the 30s and 40s who're far more capable than many in the top 20.
5. Tiger Mountain 5

   15 June 2020 at 1:33 pm

   A lighter than air post–no one has achieved a “govern alone” majority under the MMP voting system. And nor should they, as the results of many decades of FPP should remind. A strong Labour/Green Coalition Govt. would be the desirable outcome.

   If the Labour Caucus has more than one or two with a glimmer of class understanding, that would be news. Carmel Sepuloni is dominated by the neo lib executives of WINZ/MSD when she should have instantly implemented Welfare Experts Working Group recommendations such as individualising benefits, Lees Galloway a similar disappointment, monstered by some pretty nasty types, the neo lib managerialists in the public service should be getting a kick in the nuts from Senior Labour Ministers but in most cases they are not.

   So not wanting to rain on the Labour faithful, the raffle sellers and branch members, but face facts, until the structural underpinnings of Rogernomics are retired your party is still supported by many on a lesser evil basis.

   Now Covid management is a whole different arena, that Jacinda Ardern deserves massive credit for and decades of admiration from the NZ population, spared thousands of deaths that a National response to C19 was highly likely to have produced. But the clean up will not be successful under the State Sector Act, Reserve Bank Act, free in and out flow of capital and all the rest of it.
   • Anne 5.1

     15 June 2020 at 3:43 pm

     I agree with you TM over ministers being obstructed by Public Service neoliberal oriented types. I would add Phil Twyford to the list of those affected. He is known to be a brilliant organiser so something was going down when he was the housing minister that we have yet to learn about.

     He has actually risen up the list ranks so his abilities are well recognised.
     • Tiger Mountain 5.1.1

       15 June 2020 at 3:55 pm

       I got the impression Anne that Phil basically had the rug pulled out re Kiwibuild by the Industry going on “non cooperation strike” by not supporting the idea enmasse. The developers seem to prefer high margin jobs only on their own terms.

       My view was the Govt could have ordered flat packs, saved money and gone around the builders/suppliers if they would not be helpful.
       • Anne 5.1.1.1

         15 June 2020 at 4:48 pm

         Labour is inclined to be too trusting of people. They have been tripped up by bastards so many times over the decades. Each time a new generation takes over the reins they seem to have learn the lesson all over again.

         Helen Clark is one of the few Labour PMs who went into the job with her eyes wide open and she lasted nine years.

         Peter Fraser was the previous example back in the 1940s although Norman Kirk might have made it had he lived.
       • greywarshark 5.1.1.2

         15 June 2020 at 9:35 pm

         TM How do Ministers gain some control over civil servants?

         This from 2000 – https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/public-service-evaluation-capacity-critical-says-maharey

         'Mr Maharey said that the Government wanted to see far better evaluation capacity within the public service.

         "Labour and the Alliance want to set a new course for the delivery of government programmes.'
         • Tiger Mountain 5.1.1.2.1

           16 June 2020 at 10:44 am

           It is interesting to be reminded of such attempts as Mr Maharey’s. In reality “Data holes” usually suit the purposes of the Public Sector chiefs. When National bought in 90 Day “sack ’em on day 89” Trial periods for new employees, they made it quite clear the Dept of Labour would NOT be monitoring outcomes for abuse detection or any other purposes.
           • greywarshark 5.1.1.2.1.1

             16 June 2020 at 11:18 am

             Well TM what if a Minister can't get co-operation with furthering and implementing government policy what can that person do – in the light of the extract of yours I put below? And further – in my studies on social policy it was pointed out that the delivery of the new policy may be so bad that it is knackered from bringing the good change to the citizens which was desired by the government. So the civil servants then wreck the government's plans, they are not apolitical and have their own agenda, and act more like the challenging unionists in the Strawbs* song.

             TM – If the Labour Caucus has more than one or two with a glimmer of class understanding, that would be news. Carmel Sepuloni is dominated by the neo lib executives of WINZ/MSD when she should have instantly implemented Welfare Experts Working Group recommendations such as individualising benefits, Lees Galloway a similar disappointment, monstered by some pretty nasty types, the neo lib managerialists in the public service should be getting a kick in the nuts from Senior Labour Ministers but in most cases they are not.

             So not wanting to rain on the Labour faithful, the raffle sellers and branch members, but face facts, until the structural underpinnings of Rogernomics are retired your party is still supported by many on a lesser evil basis.

             * Strawbs Part of the Union. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdOCWUgwiWs
       • SDCLFC 5.1.1.3

         15 June 2020 at 9:56 pm

         Recently read Erik Olssen's biography on John A Lee recently and the first Labour Government's success with housing was very much down to his ability to smash through the industry obstructers
     • Craig H 5.1.2

       15 June 2020 at 7:26 pm

       I feel like he backed the wrong plan. Rather than create a new government department, just give it to Housing NZ since the only things they were doing at the time were managing tenancies and maintaining and building houses.
       • Anne 5.1.2.1

         15 June 2020 at 7:49 pm

         Yes. I think he did. Housing NZ was the former Housing Corporation which once upon a time was in the business of building state houses and providing loans to help people into their first home. By the time the Ardern govt. arrived on the scene they were into selling state houses and making a big profit for the Key government to plough into tax cuts for their voters.
     • Jum 5.1.3

       15 June 2020 at 9:53 pm

       Totally agree, Anne and Tiger Mountain re public servants and private industry.
   • OnceWasTim 5.2

     16 June 2020 at 1:29 am

     Fucking glad I missed your comment at 13:33 or you could have started me off on a real bloody rave. But both Carmel Sepoloni and I L-G actually have had the means to make the roadblocks in front of them look a lot mote pathetic than they already are.

     Instead, both it seems chose to take the easy route and have a lay down and a cuppa tea allowing the worst of their officials to carry on up the Kyber. with JA telling us y'all how fucking wonderful it all is. Even to the extant some of it could very well bite her in the bum when she least needs it.
6. Ken 6

   15 June 2020 at 3:12 pm

   I notice that the Muddler has said "no tax increases".

   Is anyone falling for that one? – I notice he didn't rule out levies, surcharges, fees and tolls.
   • millsy 6.1

     15 June 2020 at 7:20 pm

     In 1990 National promised to scrap tuition fees. They did exactly as promised – scrapping the government's tuition fees, but allowing unis to charge them instead. I expect that sort of jiggery pokery with National this year,
   • Peter 6.2

     15 June 2020 at 9:04 pm

     I remember a famous GST promise too. Lots of people called the guy that said that then increased GST the 'greatest PM we ever had.'

     If the good Catholic boy Muller says one thing and wins then weasels around it or does the direct opposite I'm sure they'll still have him going to Heaven.
7. RedBaronCV 7

   15 June 2020 at 3:29 pm

   I'd have liked to see Ginny Anderson further up the list although she is still likely to get in. She has stood in Ohariu before and wonder if this may be behind O'Conner being electorate only. May be saving himself from an electorate seat challenge?

   Likewise Deborah Russell. And hopefully there are some suitable for cabinet picks in the upper ranks.
8. Ad 8

   15 June 2020 at 7:20 pm

   If the top 20 were list ranked on their merited term performance:

   1 Jacinda Ardern

   2 Grant Robertson

   3 Megan Woods

   4 David Parker

   5 Stuart Nash

   6 Trevor Mallard

   7 Kris Faafoi

   8 Damien O’Connor

   9 Jenny Salesa

   10 Chris Hipkins

   11 Andrew Little

   12 Kelvin Davis

   13 Carmel Sepuloni

   14 Iain Lees-Galloway

   15 Phil Twyford

   16 Damien O'Connor

   17 Peeni Henare

   18 Nanaia Mahuta

   19 David Clark

   (Ayesha Verrall not serving MP)
   • Darien Fenton 8.1

     17 June 2020 at 7:47 am

     The List process is not a merit ranking process for current cabinet ministers. That is called a reshuffle. I have no doubt there will be one after the election. Right now, Labour's call is to show a united front and the last thing they need is screeds and screeds of comment from media about this or that Minister being demoted.
9. observer 9

   15 June 2020 at 10:07 pm

   It would seem like a good problem to have, but if Labour get around 60+ MPs and have one coalition partner – or even two – then they will have the highest number of backbenchers in their history. Some Ministers would have to be from the support parties, and so there would be a huge imbalance between the number of jobs available, and Labour MPs who think they should have one.

   If that happens Ardern will need to be ruthless in her post-election reshuffle: promote the best entrants from 2017, dump those who need to be out by 2023. Otherwise there's going to be a traffic jam backed up a long way.
10. SDCLFC 10

    15 June 2020 at 10:10 pm

    The big drops for Willow Jean Prime, Ginny Anderson and Kiritapu Allan are disappointing

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