Latest Newshub Reid Research poll – yet another rogue poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:12 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 144 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, uncategorized - Tags:

Tova O’Brien said that it would be a bombshell result and it was.

The results of tonight’s Newshub Reid Research poll results are:

Labour – 61% up 4.4

National – 25% down 5.5

Greens – 5.7% – up 0.2

NZ First – 2% – down 0.7

Act – 3.3% up 1.5%

Others – who cares.

This is unheard of at this stage of an election campaign.

Kiwis obviously prefer Aroha and compassion to belligerence.

144 comments on “Latest Newshub Reid Research poll – yet another rogue poll ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Incognito 1
    26 July 2020 at 6:18 pm

    A nice birthday present 😀

  2. Anker 2
    26 July 2020 at 6:19 pm

    Yah! Jacinda and labour deserve this

  3. weka 3
    26 July 2020 at 6:19 pm

    Strange framing from TB, that Collins is the best leader for National to win. Surely no-one believes that National has any chance (short of some extraordinary event)? Collins becoming leader was about powermongering. National could have played the longer game, put in someone who could have rebuilt the party, but no, they went with this shit show led by Collins.

    • Gabby 3.1
      26 July 2020 at 6:20 pm

      Maybe Collins' Chance is like Hobson's Choice.

    • Incognito 3.2
      26 July 2020 at 6:33 pm

      Judith’s poll bounce bounced like a dead cat.

      • In Vino 3.2.1
        26 July 2020 at 10:25 pm

        No – dead cats do actually bounce. Judith appears to have hit soft bog, and deservedly sunk into it. I wonder if she will be lucky enough to have found an old Kauri log..

    • Draco T Bastard 3.3
      26 July 2020 at 6:41 pm

      National don't keep leaders who lose so maybe putting her in charge was a way to get rid of her once and for all.

      • Hanswurst 3.3.1
        26 July 2020 at 7:33 pm

        That seems a bit too much like turkeys voting for Christmas. More likely, they thought that, if she arrested their decline and took a fighting chunk out of the government's vote, she was worth the discomfort of having her as leader, and if she didn't, they could tell her to shove off.

    • georgecom 3.4
      26 July 2020 at 9:05 pm

      Luxon is not in Parliament yet so Collins is the seat warmer, like a fluffer in the adult movie industry, or a stand in for the pre-record light and sound settings in the movie business that involves actual acting skills

    • Stuart Munro 3.5
      26 July 2020 at 11:45 pm

      I'm not really sure they have the depth – when Brownlee can be number two, how much talent can be left on the bench? Collins is the best they've got – probably was when Key was parachuted in too.

      Not that they have a ghost of a prayer – the invisible hand is acting to correct a glut of RW nutjobbery – it isn't worth what it used to be.

    • Grafton Gully 3.6
      27 July 2020 at 5:56 pm

      The thing about Collins is she is a time tested true blue what you see is what you get National diehard. Smart, legal and business experience, not a smartarse "look at me" money flicker. I like her and think she represents National's values really well. Hope she keeps the faith. NZ needs a credible opposition.

  4. Gabby 4
    26 July 2020 at 6:19 pm

    Clearly Judith Codger needs to get nastier and Winnie needs to get whinier. It's got to start paying off eventually.

  5. Andre 5
    26 July 2020 at 6:20 pm

    Do the bookies have odds on whether JuDarth is still Nat leader on election day?

  6. Roy cartland 6
    26 July 2020 at 6:22 pm

    And the next story was about how they are adopting some pretty green power policy. Could this be…?

  7. observer 7
    26 July 2020 at 6:25 pm

    The roll call of "political and media commentators" who predicted exactly the opposite is too long to list. It's almost as if they just make stuff up, eh?

    Polling period: 16-24 July. So it included both Falloon and ILG stories. How did that little ploy work out for you, Judith?

    (Double down … predict AM Show tomorrow: "Did Labour MP smoke weed at student party in 1990's?" – anonymous source shock claim!)

  8. Chris T 8
    26 July 2020 at 6:26 pm

    It isn't exactly rocket science that Labour would win the election after the Covid thing.

    Well to me any way.

  9. Peter 9
    26 July 2020 at 6:30 pm

    Regardless of the numbers the poll is brilliant simply because it has David Farrar wetting his pants and, by and large, saying the results are impossible.

  10. Westykev 10
    26 July 2020 at 6:30 pm

    While the Labour Party hierarchy will be pleased with this poll they will also be worried that that their supporters see the election result is assured and don’t get out and vote.

    • observer 10.1
      26 July 2020 at 6:43 pm

      Fair comment, if this poll was a week before the election.

      But it's 8 weeks, so no, not really. I doubt Labour will be at 60% in many polls. 50% on election day would be champagne time.

      • Westykev 10.1.1
        26 July 2020 at 7:07 pm

        I hear you however, even if the polls come closer to 50% complacency comes to the fore. Not only with the supporters but MPs as well and that can cost seats,

        • I Feel Love 10.1.1.1
          26 July 2020 at 7:20 pm

          "MPs as well" that is a fear, yep.

          • observer 10.1.1.1.1
            26 July 2020 at 7:26 pm

            Yes. Need to maintain discipline (that's you, Greg O'Connor).

            Premature triumphalism is pretty harmless on blog comments but dangerous from MPs.

        • McFlock 10.1.1.2
          26 July 2020 at 7:21 pm

          Yes, but if Labour looks well ahead and the greens are looking on the edge still, I for one will be going Green, rather than staying home.

    • Rapunzel 10.2
      26 July 2020 at 7:20 pm

      How different is that to National Party voters seeing the result as a foregone conclusion & not bothering either – there are less of the older core traditional voters now & some of them may well simply agree with the govt covid response but may choose not to vote at all

      • Westykev 10.2.1
        26 July 2020 at 8:00 pm

        They will still vote Blue. They will definitely believe this is a rogue poll, and the next and the next poll too. I was once involved in the Party and those over sixty are hard core supporters. Judith was the overwhelming favourite of the Party members who were surprised and disappointed with Bridges accession to the leadership.

        • Rapunzel 10.2.1.1
          27 July 2020 at 7:13 am

          Being "once involved" is something you should compare with what applies now, it's quite different in the overall view most people have now

      • George 10.2.2
        27 July 2020 at 7:00 am

        The covid situation is completely new and there is no rulebook for anybody. First point was to protect the community. Labour did that. National wanted to protect the economy…like Australia. The turnout and vote from the public could well be decided by what is happening in Victoria rather than the politics here. There may have been some issues at the border around covid but it's still under control and we aren't looking at 10 daily deaths and 400+ new cases. National are very focused on other things …that they no longer realize what is important to the public. And yup it’s too late to backtrack on this and pretend they said something else.

        • Rapunzel 10.2.2.1
          27 July 2020 at 7:17 am

          I agree the people I know have an overall view that looks outside NZ & they have an eye on the future they don't need any or much persuasion the NZ govt has & is giving them the best option & they're onboard the battle through the currently uncertain future

  11. Pat 11
    26 July 2020 at 6:39 pm

    "National Party leadership contender Judith Collins has set herself a performance threshold of 35 per cent in the polls if she wins the leadership."

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11994559

    Au revoir

    • Andre 11.1
      26 July 2020 at 6:46 pm

      Aww, c'mon. She hasn't even had the job for two weeks yet and she's got them more than two thirds of the way there! If that isn't stunningly successful leadership, what is?

  12. Byd0nz 12
    26 July 2020 at 6:43 pm

    Westykev. I know it has been a problem in the past, but I think the Covid thing will compel them to vote. Also I think that young first time voters will come out strong for Jacinda, that from what I have heard from my young ones' and their friends.

    • Westykev 12.1
      26 July 2020 at 8:08 pm

      Absolute right, Jacinda has the younger adult support but this still needs to translate to votes on the day.

    • George 12.2
      27 July 2020 at 7:05 am

      Yes agreed. And remember also that Judith laughing at the 16 year climate change protestors a while back. These are her constituents! She rubbishes them at her peril. They are voting in this election now. And there will be 13 and 14 year olds voting in the next. Waky wakey

  13. Chris T 13
    26 July 2020 at 6:44 pm

    Would imagine (And I in no way know) Collins would have taken the job on the proviso she doesn't get turfed after the election loss.

    Either that or given an extremely high profile good portfolio and standing down

    • Rapunzel 13.1
      26 July 2020 at 7:22 pm

      A good portfolio in Opposition for another 3 years? I see

      • Chris T 13.1.1
        26 July 2020 at 7:26 pm

        It would have been the only way anyone would have taken on the job this close to the election tbf.

        Ardern probably did the same thing when given it so close in 2017.

        Just worked out better for her

        • Rapunzel 13.1.1.1
          26 July 2020 at 7:30 pm

          Maybe , I just think that Collins couldn't resist it when they had few other options & doing it for that reason is why she doesn't resonate

          • Chris T 13.1.1.1.1
            26 July 2020 at 7:34 pm

            I think Collins is many things. A lot not that great, but one isn't stupid.

            • Rapunzel 13.1.1.1.1.1
              26 July 2020 at 7:40 pm

              You may think that, I don't for the simple reason she seems to have applied a nano-second to the Lee-Galloway "reveal" & I believe it's a failure that is costing her & National. You, & she, I think underestimate what voters want right now & that's a way of life that makes sense when they look outside NZ

              • Chris T …
                26 July 2020 at 8:08 pm

                Thank you for pretending to be able to read my thoughts and match them in your head to a politician I couldn't give a rats about.

                Much appreciated

            • Draco T Bastard 13.1.1.1.1.2
              26 July 2020 at 8:07 pm

              She's in that National Party – that pretty much ensures that she is, as a matter of fact, stupid. Comes with all the other National Party characteristics – the arrogance, selfishness, self-righteousness, self-aggrandizing, greed and corruption.

    • Hanswurst 13.2
      26 July 2020 at 7:38 pm

      Either that or given an extremely high profile good portfolio and standing down

      She's in no position to negotiate that, though. She doesn't know for certain who will be left after the election, what will have transpired or who will become leader. Whoever has the numbers then has a free hand to do what they like with her ranking and portfolios.

      • McFlock 13.2.1
        26 July 2020 at 10:42 pm

        I suspect she did some basic questioning:

        at ~30%, is the nat vote likely to go up or down?

        if it goes up and she's not leader, between Luxon and the inevitable pool of new mps after the 2020 election, she's basically hit her parliamentary career height. She doesn't have dirt on too many mps just entering parliament.

        if it goes down and she's not leader, it'll just be rinse and repeat for a derelict party, and the new leader will get more votes in 2023 so look comparatively successful.

        If she becomes leader and it goes up, she might have enough weight to fend off a leadership challenge from Luxon long enough to knife him.

        If she becomes leader and it goes down, she gets "leader of the opposition" on her CV in the way Blinglish is a former PM. Good for those internationasl business trips. And who knows, she might recover enough in 2023 to form a govt in 2026 (but I doubt it).

  14. Treetop 14
    26 July 2020 at 6:44 pm

    You give out good you get good back. You give out bad you get bad back.

    What goes around comes around.

  15. The Al1en 15
    26 July 2020 at 6:45 pm

    yet another rogue poll

    Agreed. No way national can be polling that high 😆

  16. Incognito 16
    26 July 2020 at 6:46 pm

    National Party Caucus meeting: “Next!!”.

    • observer 17.1
      26 July 2020 at 7:33 pm

      Those numbers illustrate National's problem well.

      In 2017 there was a big pool of potential Labour votes to be gained from NZF and the Greens. There was enough evidence that National could lose the election – it was a question of how the non-Nat votes were distributed.

      In 2020 the well is almost dry, for National. NZF and ACT could get zero and it wouldn't help much.

  18. Patricia Bremner 18
    26 July 2020 at 6:53 pm

    New Zealanders look around the world and thank Jacinda and the team.

    This is a vote for positive affirmation kindness steady improvements and science.

    We all know the pandemic is raging out of control elsewhere, but here we can continue to think and plan for our future while coping with returnees and visitors.

    Many many Happy Returns Jacinda and Labour/Greens.

  19. RedBaronCV 19
    26 July 2020 at 6:58 pm

    Doesn't seem to be a lot of "don't knows" .My impression is that people have pretty much made up their minds already- apart from some minor tactical switching Lab/greens and ACT/Nat- and the campaign isn't going to change much of anything.

    With one reservation – another Falloon sized scandal around Nat might convince a few more of their supporters to stay home. Collins may yet beat the Billy English target

    • weka 19.1
      26 July 2020 at 7:20 pm

      going to be so interesting to see what National do next. Does Collins only have the one gear?

      • Sacha 19.1.1
        26 July 2020 at 7:22 pm

        The desperate operators around her probably have many buckets of filth to fling.

      • The Al1en 19.1.2
        26 July 2020 at 7:26 pm

        Maybe, just maybe, they'll have to change tack. The danger for them is they go even dirtier and nastier, and as attacking the most popular pm ever clearly isn't working out too well for them, they could try and push some policy or get in step with the majority of people in NZ.

        • Anne 19.1.2.1
          26 July 2020 at 8:00 pm

          There’s a new dirty story doing the rounds about Clarke Gayford. Remember about two years ago a dirty tale was spread about him in an attempt to embarrass Jacinda? It looks like it has happened again.

          • Sacha 19.1.2.1.1
            26 July 2020 at 8:32 pm

            A classy operator like Gerry probably has a dirt file on her toddler already.

          • ScottGN 19.1.2.1.2
            26 July 2020 at 8:35 pm

            Yeah Anne. I went out for a drink tonight and a couple of people passed on this story about Clarke. I was to able to tell them that I had seen the PM and Clarke quite happily together at a Labour Party debate in Mt Albert the week before.

          • Incognito 19.1.2.1.3
            26 July 2020 at 9:02 pm

            That’s just one of the many thing Moderators keep an eye on. There have been attempts …

          • anker 19.1.2.1.4
            26 July 2020 at 9:08 pm

            Saw a comment on the National Party FB feed, which comes through to me. Thought is was scum and not credible

          • I Feel Love 19.1.2.1.5
            26 July 2020 at 10:05 pm

            Let them spread it, it's so ludicrous, it will only damage those spreading it.

          • Chris T 19.1.2.1.6
            26 July 2020 at 11:14 pm

            Putting aside the latest Ardern thing, as I think her partner isn't that dim.

            Parliament is a big place and there have always been people shagging each other, like any work place.

            In the end that is all it is. A work place

            And it doesn't matter which side.

            There is no oath they sign up to saying this Nat MP must not shag Deb's from that Labour office dept, or the other way round

            • Anne 19.1.2.1.6.1
              26 July 2020 at 11:31 pm

              Yes, I made the same point here last week. Its been going on since time immemorial. I think the heightened atmosphere of the Beehive enclave and the power cliques that exist around parliament make it worse than your average workplace. And yes, it has gone on in all political parties.

              Hopefully there will be a culture change with the Speaker's new code of conduct which he has made clear he is going to enforce.

              Not a moment too soon.

              • Grafton Gully …
                27 July 2020 at 6:17 pm

                The more frantic feel ups leers and quick fucks on site (if poss) the better in my book – it's a high energy, go for it place – sure beats a solo wank with or without the the Speakers new code of conduct.

      • Treetop 19.1.3
        26 July 2020 at 8:33 pm

        The gear was in reverse and Collins thought she was in first gear.

  20. Ken 20
    26 July 2020 at 7:01 pm

    Looks like when confronted with a choice between nasty and nice, people choose nice.

    • observer 20.1
      26 July 2020 at 7:08 pm

      They may do, but above all they choose competent.

      Collins vastly over-rates her own competence. Ardern's critics under-rate hers.

      • ScottGN 20.1.1
        26 July 2020 at 7:41 pm

        Absolutely right observer. The number of Collins boosters in the media who thought she only had to show up for Question Time and would go on to monster Ardern was ridiculous.

  21. mauī 21
    26 July 2020 at 7:05 pm

    The wonderful, wonderful Reid Research.. what an amazing polling company.

  22. PaddyOT 22
    26 July 2020 at 7:12 pm

    So is that a low from Bridge's low in May?

    Years have passed and I keep thinking
    What a fool I've been
    I look back into the past and ( wrote a book)
    Think of way back then
    I know that I lost everything I thought I that could win
    I guess I should have listened to my friends ( ummmm)

    All the burning bridges that have fallen after me
    All the lonely feelings and the burning memories
    Everyone I left behind each time I closed the door
    Burning bridges lost (lasts) forevermore

  23. Andre 23
    26 July 2020 at 7:20 pm

    On behalf of absent regulars, I'd like to put the contrarian view out for consideration:

    This appallingly dismal poll result proves the general public has seen through the Labour Party to the hollow husks of bought neo-liberal corporate shills they truly are. Turn Labour left!

    • weka 23.1
      26 July 2020 at 7:22 pm

      haha.

      I think this demonstrates that NZ is comfortable with neoliberalism. Not sure how lefties will reconcile that with a continuing housing crisis, no relief for welfare, and climate action fails, but we will see I guess 🙂

      • weka 23.1.1
        26 July 2020 at 7:24 pm

        More seriously, I am curious about the missing 5%, who voted Green in 2014 but Labour in 2017. What's up with that?

        I wish we had polls like this,

        • Andre 23.1.1.1
          26 July 2020 at 7:30 pm

          Isn't that kind of info usually derived from exit polls? I've never been exit polled here nor do I remember hearing about any here. Maybe I've just been paying attention to other stuff election day.

          • Sacha 23.1.1.1.1
            26 July 2020 at 7:42 pm

            We get the one post-election analysis each time, as far as I know: http://www.nzes.org/

            • Andre 23.1.1.1.1.1
              26 July 2020 at 7:58 pm

              Thanks.

              Looks like they ask all the questions needed, but don't work out the split weka's looking for. You'd need the individual questionnaires for that.

              3000-odd results also strikes me as a smallish sample size for meaningful results for the smaller parties.

          • observer 23.1.1.1.2
            26 July 2020 at 7:46 pm

            Exit polls are illegal in NZ. Part of our ban on political activity on the day.

        • Andre 23.1.1.2
          26 July 2020 at 7:44 pm

          As to half the Greens vote from 2014 apparently shifting to Labour, I'm sure you can find convincing arguments for whatever hypothesis you favour and against whichever ideas you disfavour, such as:

          The Greens are popular when Labour looks like a mess, when Labour gets its shit together those voters go back.

          With the loss of Graham and Clendon, it looks like the Greens' focus on environment has been lost in favour of social issues, so those voters really focused on environmental issues don't feel Greens really speak for them any more (or alternatively actively disagree with the social justice positions).

          I'm sure there's more but I'm out of energy for trying to think them up and articulate them.

          • Sacha 23.1.1.2.1
            26 July 2020 at 7:51 pm

            When Labour's vote looked in desperate straits, left support swung that way. This time the reverse ought to apply.

    • mickysavage 23.2
      26 July 2020 at 7:25 pm

      Heh Andre. It is complex …

    • mauī 23.3
      26 July 2020 at 8:38 pm

      Just a hangover from the socialist dictatorship that started a couple of months ago…

  24. observer 24
    26 July 2020 at 7:45 pm

    The party vote numbers always get the headlines, but often there's more revealing data in the other, less noticed numbers.

    83% approve of Ardern's performance. That number has been consistently high for months. It hasn't really changed, all through the game of Blue Musical Chairs. (Note: approval. Not preferred PM, a different measure).

    It's not really about Bridges/Muller/Collins/Whoever. If a PM is very popular, they get re-elected. Labour never beat Key.

    • ScottGN 24.1
      26 July 2020 at 8:41 pm

      Yep. We’ve pretty much made our minds up who we want to lead the country through the aftermath of Covid. Whether I would wish that on the shoulders of that amazing young woman is another thing.

  25. AB 25
    26 July 2020 at 7:48 pm

    Let's hope that this denotes a permanent shift in public consciousness. Also, in a hyper-individualized culture, it looks like leadership, or the perception of leaders, is the single biggest determinant of electoral outcomes. Scary, and to my mind, odd. But it means that labour needs to put some serious effort into talent management and succession planning for Ardern.

  26. Peter 26
    26 July 2020 at 7:53 pm

    Damn the poll coming out on a Sunday night. Now Mike Hosking will have to do a rewrite of Monday's Moan. I wonder what angle he'll take.

    The words 'momentum' and 'traction' might get a mention which will be ironic since Collins' recent big announcement about big roading projects with no idea of costs was literally and metaphorically movement, momentum and traction. I'll be amazed if he doesn't get 'hypocrisy' in there somewhere.

  27. barry 27
    26 July 2020 at 8:19 pm

    With ACT polling 3.3% National can't afford not to gift them Epsom as that would make a 3-4 seat difference to the overall margin.

    Does that mean that Goldsmith misses out?

    Does it mean that the gun lobby gets their MP? Who is 4th on the ACT list (Chris Baillie)? Is he as crazy as some of the other coat-tailers have been in the past?

    • ScottGN 27.1
      26 July 2020 at 9:08 pm

      Does Goldsmith even get in on National’s list on these numbers? If the people of Epsom want him they might just have to vote for him.

  28. Scud 28
    26 July 2020 at 8:35 pm

    Tell crusher she is dreaming if she can still win from here, and tell her she would have more chance at winning next Saturday’s Lotto draw either the dogs or the trots at Addington than this yrs election.

  29. Treetop 29
    26 July 2020 at 8:49 pm

    I’d go light on the alcohol tonight were I a Collin’s supporter as I just might regret it in the morning.

  30. observer 30
    26 July 2020 at 8:50 pm

    I think we should all agree that this is, in fact, a rogue poll. smiley

    So in the spirit of fairness, I've knocked a generous 10% off Labour's support, and transferred it directly to National, up 10%. (All other parties unchanged).

    New result: Labour 65, Greens 7. National 44, ACT 4.

    I hope Gerry is happy now.

  31. Tricledrown 31
    26 July 2020 at 8:58 pm

    Crusher was going to Crush cars she managed a paltry 2 Cars a good insight to her all bark and no bite. Barking mad with voters she's barking up the wrong tree .

    • nzlemming 31.1
      26 July 2020 at 9:39 pm

      People keep saying this but it's wrong. Despite overseeing the passage of the legislation, Collins crushed zero cars. Only two cars were crushed, true, but that was under Tolley.

      • Sacha 31.1.1
        26 July 2020 at 9:48 pm

        Amazing how few remember that the reputation is totally confected – including the press gallery. Low standards.

  32. millsy 32
    26 July 2020 at 9:00 pm

    Don't get too carried away.

    The time for celebration will be at about 9-10pm on September 19.

    Not a moment before.

  33. Muttonbird 33
    26 July 2020 at 9:02 pm

    Dear Media, please savage Judith Collins tomorrow about how she has led the National Party to their lowest polling in 20 years.

    • Treetop 33.1
      26 July 2020 at 9:29 pm

      If a 3.1 % increase for Collins as the preferred PM is all she can manage, she may as well not have bothered.

  34. Tricledrown 34
    26 July 2020 at 9:23 pm

    a 10% swing against the National Party Since Crushless Took over now she can't do any better than Muller or Bridges.

    Desperation has done huge damage to National the Strong team dwindles a long with their popularity.

    JLR has another round of Dirt to dump on the Dirty Politics Party.

    Goldsmith is way ou t of his depth as Finance Minister suggesting we take a chainsaw to public spending.$80 billion over 10 years .

    Look across the Tasman to the Liberal Party Australias version of the Nactional Party are spending more per Capita in $NZ value.

    So the Liberal Party know what they are doing but Goldsmith is happy to under finance the economy in the deepest recession since 1929.

    That's why NZ had a much longer recession /depression because the Conservatives were more interested in balancing the budget than keeping the economy afloat.

  35. froggleblocks 35
    26 July 2020 at 9:27 pm

    Interesting thing about this result is that it gives Labour 77 MPs. Their list only has 81 people on it. If their vote were to be a little higher than this, such that it entitled them to 82 or more MPs, they'd actually create an *underhang* and shrink Parliament.

    • Treetop 35.1
      26 July 2020 at 9:38 pm

      Brownlee has it sussed a rogue poll but he did not put it like you have put it.

    • froggleblocks 35.2
      26 July 2020 at 9:50 pm

      The other funny potential result is that National currently have 38 electorate MPs and this result would give them 32 MPs. Of course there'd be a general swing towards Labour and they'd lose electorates, but it puts them in the position of potentially getting 0 list MPs (which is important for Goldsmith in Epsom) *and* creating an overhang.

      So totally nutso potential results:

      1. Labour creates an underhang of a couple of seats

      2. National creates an overhang of a couple of seats

      3. Act gets knocked out increasing the 'wasted vote' which is redistributed back to the other parties, giving the Greens 1 or 2 more MPs than might be expected.

      • Treetop 35.2.1
        26 July 2020 at 9:59 pm

        Are you for real or are you joking?

        If for real so interesting what you have raised.

      • DS 35.2.2
        27 July 2020 at 1:14 am

        61%-25% means the Nats get down to a dozen electorates (assuming that there's some vote splitting to save Nat electorate MPs – otherwise we're looking at a situation where Labour basically sweeps the country*).

        Of that dozen, most of them would be in Auckland, with only two (Southland and Selwyn) south of Taranaki-King Country.

        *Note that Clutha-Southland went for the Nat candidate by 39% in 2017. That's about 32% more Nat than the country. If Labour's winning the country by 36%, Clutha-Southland falls on a straight swing. And since other seats would be easily maxxed out, in terms of Labour vote… the swing in Southland might actually be greater than a straight swing.

  36. Incognito 36
    26 July 2020 at 9:33 pm

    With Labour apparently safely ahead some people may decide to vote for the Greens to ensure they stay safely above 5%. To hedge their bets on Swarbrick winning Auckland Central seems a risky strategy.

    • millsy 36.1
      26 July 2020 at 10:42 pm

      Taking the seat of National matters more than who wins it.

      Labour lost a lot of electorates in the 2005 and 2008 votes and I think the Greens need to stand aside in more than a few to help get them back.

      I dont think we will see much left wing policy from Labour this time, but if National get in, we are going to have an austerity program that is unprecedented, to the point that it will sweep away what is left of the Savage/Kirk welfare state.

      We need to get out and vote Labour. Just as the USA-ians need to vote Biden.

  37. swordfish 37
    26 July 2020 at 10:33 pm

    .
    Newshub Reid Research:
    Polls conducted at same point before 2011 / 2020 Elections (end of 1st term of New Govt seeking re-election):

    [Fieldwork 2 months out from Election]:

    2011 / 2020

    Lab … 26.6 .. / … 60.9

    Green 9.8 … / … 5.7

    NZF … 1.9 … / … 2.0

    Nat … 57.4 .. / .. 25.1

    ACT … 1.6 … / … 3.3

    • Craig H 37.1
      27 July 2020 at 12:12 am

      Not surprisingly, some parallels with 2011 after the earthquakes.

      • swordfish 37.1.1
        27 July 2020 at 1:04 am

        Yeah, although poll movement after the 2 earthquakes was relatively minor … nowhere near the major re-alignment that happened during the COVID-19 Lockdown.

    • swordfish 37.2
      27 July 2020 at 12:50 am

      .
      Preferred PM

      2011 / 2020:

      PM (Key: Nat) 54.5% / (Ardern: Lab) 62.0%

      Oppo Ldr (Goff: Lab) 6.2% / (Collins: Nat) 14.6

      .

      Leader Performance

      2011 / 2020

      PM

      (2011 Key: Nat) .. Well 76.2% … Poorly 11.5% … Net + 64.7

      (2020 Ardern: Lab) .. Well 85.3% … Poorly 8.2% … Net + 77.1

      Oppo Ldr

      (2011 Goff: Lab) .. Well 26.8% … Poorly 49.1% … Net – 22.3

      (2020 Collins: Nat) .. Well 39.5% … Poorly 30.8% … Net + 8.7

  38. Peter 38
    26 July 2020 at 11:38 pm

    Am I first to dub this poll the 'Michelle Boag Memorial Poll'? smiley

  39. mosa 39
    27 July 2020 at 1:23 am

    " PM (Key: Nat) 54.5% / (Ardern: Lab) 62.0%

    Finally a PM that can claim the mantle of the most " popular Prime minister ever !!!!!

    Glad that corpse can be finally buried.

  40. ScottGN 40
    27 July 2020 at 7:12 am

    Luke Malpass (who for a recent arrival from Australia seems to have established strong connections to National rather quickly) is reporting in Stuff this morning that Brownlee has told him that their internals have them 10 points higher and Labour 10 lower than last nights RR poll. That still puts Labour on or over 50% even if it’s true. I guess if that’s right we’ll soon see National’s numbers leaked to bolster their position?

    • mango 40.1
      27 July 2020 at 9:43 am

      This result does seem a little bit out to me but probably by 5% between the major parties rather than 10%

    • Sacha 40.2
      27 July 2020 at 10:43 pm

      Malpass worked for the NZ Institute ‘thinktank’ after their equivalent in Aus. Totally right-wing.

  41. Hooch 41
    27 July 2020 at 1:13 pm

    Rogue poll? More like rouge poll

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago

  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
    The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
    State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel.    “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says.    "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
    Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board.   “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti.  “I have asked her to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Roads of National Significance planning underway
    The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Navigating an unstable global environment
    New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States.    “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • NZ welcomes Australian Governor-General
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for Winter
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • NZ and the US: an ever closer partnership
    New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Joint US and NZ declaration
    April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperation
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research.   “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Government redress for Te Korowai o Wainuiārua
    The Government is continuing the bipartisan effort to restore its relationship with iwi as the Te Korowai o Wainuiārua Claims Settlement Bill passed its first reading in Parliament today, says Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. “Historical grievances of Te Korowai o Wainuiārua relate to 19th century warfare, land purchased or taken ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Focus on outstanding minerals permit applications
    New Zealand Petroleum and Minerals is working to resolve almost 150 outstanding minerals permit applications by the end of the financial year, enabling valuable mining activity and signalling to the sector that New Zealand is open for business, Resources Minister Shane Jones says.  “While there are no set timeframes for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Applications open for NZ-Ireland Research Call
    The New Zealand and Irish governments have today announced that applications for the 2024 New Zealand-Ireland Joint Research Call on Agriculture and Climate Change are now open. This is the third research call in the three-year Joint Research Initiative pilot launched in 2022 by the Ministry for Primary Industries and Ireland’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Tenancy rules changes to improve rental market
    The coalition Government has today announced changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to encourage landlords back to the rental property market, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The previous Government waged a war on landlords. Many landlords told us this caused them to exit the rental market altogether. It caused worse ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Boosting NZ’s trade and agricultural relationship with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay will visit China next week, to strengthen relationships, support Kiwi exporters and promote New Zealand businesses on the world stage. “China is one of New Zealand’s most significant trade and economic relationships and remains an important destination for New Zealand’s products, accounting for nearly 22 per cent of our good and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Freshwater farm plan systems to be improved
    The coalition Government intends to improve freshwater farm plans so that they are more cost-effective and practical for farmers, Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay have announced. “A fit-for-purpose freshwater farm plan system will enable farmers and growers to find the right solutions for their farm ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Fast Track Projects advisory group named
    The coalition Government has today announced the expert advisory group who will provide independent recommendations to Ministers on projects to be included in the Fast Track Approvals Bill, say RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones. “Our Fast Track Approval process will make it easier and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Pacific and Gaza focus of UN talks
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters says his official talks with the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York today focused on a shared commitment to partnering with the Pacific Islands region and a common concern about the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.    “Small states in the Pacific rely on collective ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Government honours Taranaki Maunga deal
    The Government is honouring commitments made to Taranaki iwi with the Te Pire Whakatupua mō Te Kāhui Tupua/Taranaki Maunga Collective Redress Bill passing its first reading Parliament today, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “This Bill addresses the commitment the Crown made to the eight iwi of Taranaki to negotiate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Enhanced partnership to reduce agricultural emissions
    The Government and four further companies are together committing an additional $18 million towards AgriZeroNZ to boost New Zealand’s efforts to reduce agricultural emissions. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says the strength of the New Zealand economy relies on us getting effective and affordable emission reduction solutions for New Zealand. “The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • 110km/h limit proposed for Kāpiti Expressway
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) will begin consultation this month on raising speed limits for the Kāpiti Expressway to 110km/h. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and this proposal supports that outcome ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand Biosecurity Awards – Winners announced
    Two New Zealanders who’ve used their unique skills to help fight the exotic caulerpa seaweed are this year’s Biosecurity Awards Supreme Winners, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard. “Strong biosecurity is vital and underpins the whole New Zealand economy and our native flora and fauna. These awards celebrate all those in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Attendance action plan to lift student attendance rates
    The Government is taking action to address the truancy crisis and raise attendance by delivering the attendance action plan, Associate Education Minister David Seymour announced today.   New Zealand attendance rates are low by national and international standards. Regular attendance, defined as being in school over 90 per cent of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • World must act to halt Gaza catastrophe – Peters
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has told the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York today that an immediate ceasefire is needed in Gaza to halt the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe.    “Palestinian civilians continue to bear the brunt of Israel’s military actions,” Mr Peters said in his speech to a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Speech to United Nations General Assembly: 66th plenary meeting, 78th session
    Mr President,   The situation in Gaza is an utter catastrophe.   New Zealand condemns Hamas for its heinous terrorist attacks on 7 October and since, including its barbaric violations of women and children. All of us here must demand that Hamas release all remaining hostages immediately.   At the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Government woolshed roadshow kicks off
    Today the Government Agriculture Ministers started their national woolshed roadshow, kicking off in the Wairarapa. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay said it has been a tough time for farmers over the past few years. The sector has faced high domestic inflation rates, high interest rates, adverse weather events, and increasing farm ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • PM heads to Singapore, Thailand, and Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines this week (April 14-20), along with a senior business delegation, signalling the Government’s commitment to deepen New Zealand’s international engagement, especially our relationships in South East Asia. “South East Asia is a region that is more crucial than ever to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Prime Minister launches Government Targets
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced further steps to get New Zealand back on track, launching nine ambitious Government Targets to help improve the lives of New Zealanders. “Our Government has a plan that is focused on three key promises we made to New Zealanders – to rebuild the economy, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Natural hydrogen resource should be free of Treaty claims entanglement
    Natural hydrogen could be a game-changing new source of energy for New Zealand but it is essential it is treated as a critical development that benefits all New Zealanders, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones is seeking to give regulatory certainty for those keen to develop natural, or geological, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-04-16T23:57:42+00:00